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Monday Virtual Portfolio Moves

December 3rd, 2007 at 9:33 am | Permalink   edit   copy

ATVI – since it’s a real and solid offer that may be topped, I would see how it handles $26.50, selling the current $27.50s is a very good option though as they should be super inflated and, if you get capped, so what?

AMGN – Decembers are a different story as you don’t have time to mess around but I’d wait as you have a nice buffer so just set a sell stop until they lose around 80%, then you may want to switch.

December 3rd, 2007 at 9:34 am | Permalink   edit   copy

AMGN – oh sorry, you should, of course set a stop at 20% of your profit and roll yourself down if cheap! I still like them.

December 3rd, 2007 at 10:16 am | Permalink   edit   copy

AMGN – absolutely you should have stopped him out by now but don’t if you haven’t yet as $55 should be hard to break and the premium is still huge. You didn’t miss much, the low was $1.80, now $2.20 but the proper move in the $25KP is to now sell 10 (assuming you bought out the Jans) Dec $55s at $1.22 as that’s good money and it pays for us to roll to the $55s so a very fair trade all around. XXX

December 3rd, 2007 at 10:22 am | Permalink   edit   copy

Oil down over a buck already. 13,300 holding up well so far as a floor but we need to get back to 1,480 and 2,675 or nothing the Dow does matters.

Oh, AMGN was for $10KP too!

VCLK $20s have just .30 premium at $4, stop at $3.75 and if they don’t break $24 take the quarter and run. XXX pure mo play.

December 3rd, 2007 at 10:27 am | Permalink   edit   copy

Gold’s on the move again so we’ve got miners and big brokers running the market today along with Nasdaq bargain hunting, that’s not a bad mix but if the XLF gets off the floor so the XLF $30s at $1.44 make a fun play on a possible run to 13,400 but you have to be willing to DD at $30, probably $1 for the contract at which point you’ll have to really root for a good finish to the week. XXX

December 3rd, 2007 at 10:39 am | Permalink   edit   copy

AMGN – if you are still in with the Jan caller, I’d leave it, the play is working as is meaning it may hit $56 and it may hit $54 but, either way we will collect over $1 per contract in premium in Jan but I still like the cheap roll to the $55s while we can.

December 3rd, 2007 at 10:47 am | Permalink   edit   copy

I don’t like this, Paulson is working his ass off to reassure the markets and they’re not acting very assured!

AAPL marching againand GOOG about to go green, we need someone to step up and lead us if we’re going to get anywhere.

ETFC – time to take out callers and wait for the next comeback to sell into. XXX

December 3rd, 2007 at 10:49 am | Permalink   edit   copy

I don’t think that was enough, out of XLF. XXX

December 3rd, 2007 at 11:11 am | Permalink   edit   copy

TTWO you have to have faith and wait for the upgrades. With ATVI out of play, sector ETFs will eventually HAVE to move money into the remaining players so the schlock analysts will pick the laggards as an easy upgrade to be right about. TTWO was on my list anyway as they are coming off a tough year with good forward prospects and just 6 buys out of 20 analysts covering (most neutral).

THQI, on the other hand, is in the middle of a fiscal great year (up 50%) with almost nobody following them even though their sales and profits are on par with TTWO. They are presenting at a Goldman conference this morning but I like them because they have Disney games and Bratz and Nickelodeon games and Destroy All Humans, which is a big thing but they were slow on the Wii, which is hurting them for Xmas.

Watch those CFC puts but they look pretty safe! We went way past the $1.10 goal so you better be 1/2 out with a stop at .90! XXX

SHLD $110!!!

December 3rd, 2007 at 11:18 am | Permalink   edit   copy

Q puts – I’ve sold the current $50s and I’m holding them to protect my Jans and I have the QID Jul $40s which I will sell current $40s against if I get nervous but there’s nothing below 2,675 that would make me even a little nervous.

ISRG – I’m 1/2 covered at $330 but thiking about going all covered if they keep failing to break it.

Terrible spreads but the BXP Jan $95 puts can be very rewarding if they can be had for $6 (that’s my $6 bid!). XXX

December 3rd, 2007 at 1:31 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

Charlie Gasparino making good points backing me and Ben Stein up re Goldman fixing the markets.

Troy, the test platform of alerts is annoying me as we speak. I just called Jared and told him to tell the programmers to take this crap off my page as it’s totally cramping out my comment box but there are buttons for postion comments to various virtual portfolios which, one would assume, you will be able to sign up for alerts from.

If you don’t have index puts right now you should have some, I don’t like the motion. XXX

December 3rd, 2007 at 2:32 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

WYNN – boy did we cash out those puts too early!

Oh bad, bad, bad – lots of stuff breaking down and the buyers ran for the hills, be careful! XXX

December 3rd, 2007 at 3:11 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

QID – FYI my basis is $6.60 after a DD not including the $1 I scalped off my first sale of the $42s. Oops changed my mind. Foolish not to roll down to the Jul $38s for .80 (if gettable) and then selling the $40s for $2. XXX The problem is you and I seem to be the only people who even own these calls

Speaking of MON – 52 week highs!

SHLD $111!

Wow, the Apple bashing is really heating up. I think we may have to cover unfortunately…

Bud cover – not if you only have 10 like me, I’m buying more! I hear a lot of questions like this that seem to indicate you guys buy all of your shares on day one and I cannot emphasize enough what a terribly bad idea that is. The longer out a call is the less likely it is that I would have filled my position the next week, yet alone the next day!

Mortgage-backed securities are down about .25 from Paulson’s comments (flat for the day now), that means rates will be heading up into the bell, strengthening the dollar somewhat but probably hurting the financials so watch GS carefully as they are by far the strongest of that group.

CREE – I’d play them flat at $23, not up but that can be nice if you go with the ‘09 $22.50s at $5 and sell the current $22.50s at $1.33.

13,300 continues to provide a strong bounce!

IPhone Net – yep it’s just usable so I end up using it all the time whereas I went through 10 different devices including IPaqs and sidekicks and Palms and never was happy enough to keep them and kept going back to my Razr until I got my IPhone. Now my poor Razr is in that sad little box of technological let downs but it was my favorite thing for about 3 years, a pretty good run for a doo-hicky…

GE drop 4% very disturbing.

XOM – that depends on how long it takes but this week I would DD at .60 (assuming it was looking toppy there). Yes, you should never have any money you care about in an unhedged oil position in the current month – there are 1,000 things that can kill you any day.

December 3rd, 2007 at 3:25 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

Triple test 13,300, 1,470, 2,650 (blown).

BUD – no I wouldn’t add more at $1.40 but at $1.20 I’d want to lower my basis 10%. And only in the $25KP because we have much more than $25K in it!

APA – Oil will be at $70 in Jan, maybe $60 so not for me unless they go back to $100, then I wouldn’t mind shorting them.

December 3rd, 2007 at 3:34 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

Speaking of idiotic ways they try to scare oil up in price. From today’s WSJ: “Iran continues to enrich uranium, which means it could still develop a weapon by 2015, according to the new National Intelligence Estimate.” Remember when we were about to go to war with them because they were an imminant threat to the US? Oh wait, that was this summer wasn’t it?

MA $200 puts DD at $7.60 XXX

December 3rd, 2007 at 3:40 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

FSLR – They are holding $230 nicely(ish) but be aware they are a slot machine that will randomly go up or down 20 in an hour. What’s disturbing is we have a day when actual facts about the business are presented and no one is getting excited about them, be very careful with these guys as you are paying over $1 per day in premium for the calls so right or wrong, you are behind another buck every day you don’t cash in. They have a substantial gap to fill back to $210, if you want to buy them you may be better off just putting them on your wish list on a pullback than trying to guess movement at the middle of their last 3 sessions.

December 3rd, 2007 at 3:49 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

AAPL – need to cover with sale of 2 $175s at $10.10 in $10KP and 10 $170 puts at $3.85 in $25KP. XXX (sadly).

 

 

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