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Tuesday Virtual Portfolio Moves

December 4th, 2007 at 9:50 am | Permalink   edit   copy

There goes MA!

Oil flying down as it turns out IRAN has no nuclear program since 2003! Also, OPEC says they will be happy to raise production to meet any demand but don’t forget they closed the ship channel and will probably have a barrel shortage tomorrow which may cause a rally we can really short into.

BIDU going very much the wrong way!

Ah Courtney’s on the program! That’s why I push rules over just following trades, by the time I see a stop out and post it, the stock may have turned (like getting out of MA puts right now!). XXX

December 4th, 2007 at 10:00 am | Permalink   edit   copy

Now that’s a good test, I just dumped mine for $9 even though the bid was $8.80 right after I made that post. I waited 45 more seconds and they came to me. Had it gone up the other way, I would have rolled or doubled but, since I made a quick buck and it looks bouncy, I’d rather take it off the table than risk a 15% gain in 2 trading hours.

This is what I don’t like about “alerts.” Just because I see a trade or worry about a turn, doesn’t mean the move is set in stone at that moment and trying to do so only makes ME jumpy and forces me in and out of trades with bad timing because I can’t preface every trade by saying “I’m selling the MA puts as I think it’s going to break over $200 and retest $203 at which point I’ll short them again but I’m seeing $8.80 and I really want $1 or better so I’m going to watch it here nad keep my eye on the Dow at the down 50 mark, which it seems to be holding as well as GS which took a sharp bounce off $220 and made me check MA where I confirmed a simultaneous bounce causing me to get nervous but, rather than keep watching I figured I better get an alert out to members even though it may have been slightly premature as I figure it’s 70% better to make the trade here than to take a chance on losing a 15% profit but if it doesn’t break $200 and the market gets rejected at 13,300 then I’ll quickly buy back the same puts as long as they are no more than $9.20 as I’m willing to pay .20 to be wrong but otherwise I’d rather walk away from the trade.

December 4th, 2007 at 10:10 am | Permalink   edit   copy

FSLR – who upgraed them? Certainly someone I will have no respect for!

BIDU in the Nas? Oh we are doomed! When Cap, I’m already short and taking any $4 roll up I can get.

December 4th, 2007 at 10:58 am | Permalink   edit   copy

GS – downgrade having little effect but yes, if they drop to $200 for sure.

Active butterflies in the small virtual portfolios more for educational purposes than great profits, it is better if you paper trade them before trying them for real and, of course, if you can’t be around to make the moves then do not make the trade. Stick to straight spreads.

Bush: Effecitvely closing by saying – I have said Iran is dangerous and there’s nothing in this (official NIE report that says they are not dangerous) report that changes my view… Wow does that sum up this guys mentality in a nut shell…

ETFC holding $4 nicely.

XMSR Butterfly:

Buy $20s for .32
Sell $15s for $1.93 (net $1.61)
Buy $10 puts for .38
Sell $15 puts for $2.15 (net $1.77)

That’s a $3.38 credit and you make money between $11.62 and $18.38, I’m pretty confident with that spread so 10 for the $10KP and $25KP. XXX

December 4th, 2007 at 11:11 am | Permalink   edit   copy

 

Oil’s down $2!

MA butterfly that pays from $198.70 to $221.30 (very good if you got back in those puts and can afford the downside risk of $3.70).

Buy $230 calls for .80
Sell $210 calls for $3.50
Buy $195 puts for $7.90
Sell $210 puts for $16.50

This is too risky for small virtual portfolios but I’d leave the sell on the $210s open hoping for a bounce here. The whole risk is $3.70, if you can get it down to $2 with a $13 upside that would be great. XXX

December 4th, 2007 at 11:27 am | Permalink   edit   copy

 

SOLF – that was a hell of a call yesterday, wish I hadn’t brushed it off just because they haven’t reported numbers since last year…

MA – I ended up modifying that spread to selling the $200 puts and calls and buying the $210 call and the $185 put for a net credit of $9.50 and it will cost me $1.80 more to tighten the put up to $190 if I feel I have to but I have the other puts for now so this whole spread is protecting those to the far upside for just .50 net (and $5 in excess margin).

December 4th, 2007 at 11:42 am | Permalink   edit   copy

Remember I said watch our for BXP falling below $96 yesterday as a sign things are very bad? They are at $95.24 now and VNO continues to pace them down. If we’re losing commercial RE then what’s left?

Apple expense – Do you buy the cheapest phone? Do you buy the cheapest TV? Do you buy the cheapest car? The cheapest chair? What do you spend the most time using? Even if you don’t think of a computer as a vital extension of your life, rest assured Gen X, Y and Z do. My 7-year old and her friends only want interactive stuffed animals now, nothing that doesn’t work on-line and they chat with each other after school, she rarely makes a phone call. I think if they other manufacturers DON’T start coming out with designer PC’s they will get killed by Apple over time.

Applefly roll – sounds like a plan if it works out. Don’t forget Google blew through our marks, that’s why it got so messsy. Would I start Apple now – no, it’s far too volatile for the small virtual portfolios, we thought it had settled down but it’s up $15 from our entry and could go another $15 either way.

BIDU buyers are finding out the Nas 100 hasn’t exactly been the all-star team this year.

December 4th, 2007 at 12:31 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

XOM Jan/Apr puts – on a good move down I’d sell those $85s as you are well ahead of them so, at worst, you are only capping gains.

IMCL – actually the problem with them in the Happy 100 is that we did cover.

Wow, look at FSLR go!

Eizo – No one around me had the 30″ to look at and there was no way I was going to buy a montitor by mai.

RIMM – it’s a good target but that doesn’t mean it won’t swing $15 on either side while you wait.

XMSR – I just put the whole thing in as I had no opinion as to direction, I just liked the range as I’ve been looking for trades that, in theory, shouldn’t have to be touched at all.

Condor/butterfly – I consider it a butterfly if I’m selling in the middle and covering the outsides but a condor to me is more like when the credit spreads are far out. Also, margin is usually higher with the latter and I try to avoid it for the small virtual portfolios.

For example, a condor would be Buying the RIMM $140s for .90 and selling the $135s for $1.27 (credit .37) and Buying the RIMM $76.62 puts for .57 and selling the $80 puts for .91 (credit .34) for a .91 net credit and a $4.10 risk with a full collection anywhere between $80 and $130. It’s probably got a 90% chance of success (RIMM has to move $20 down or $30 up in 12 sessions) but it ties up $4.10 in margin to make .90 so I rarely make those.

FSLR – $220 is my target for expiration, we should be around there if the market doesn’t self destruct.

XMSR exits – it’s the same rule as any trade, once we make over 20% on the net we will stop out of it if we get a 20% (of the profit) pullback. Max profit is $15 though, not $14. With a $3.38 max profit and 15 days to go, any day we are up .25 is a good day so if we get $1 ahead of the curve we would set a .25 stop on the mix.

SOLF – do you have a link to earnings? I want to see where they’re getting this forward p/e. Could make a very interesting stock to watch.

FOMC – after they burned me in September I gave up guessing the result of their moves, so annoying..

December 4th, 2007 at 1:58 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

XMSR – I’m not concerned about an assignment. The guy gives me the stock at $15 and I keep his entire $1.96 premium AND I have my $10 puts protecting me to the downside. That would be great!

CMGI up on good earnings.

APPL – you’re right Xian, Apple puts and calls getting hurt. I think the VIX is going down and down from here as we flatline, maybe in my range, maybe around the 13,300 mark. If so, we’ll have to adjust our strategy quite a bit. There is no point to the Dec $145 puts in the $25KP so I’m going to take out that putter but leave the $155 puts for now. XXX

Also in the $25KP:

The GOOG $710/690 put spread is up $5K and is kind of dangerous as a broken leg ahead of the Fed so let’s kill that.

SHLD Mar $110s should be covered with current $110s at $4.50 on this run.

TSO Jan $57.50 puts/Dec $55 puts need to be rolled down to Jan $52.50 puts/Dec $50 puts for very close to even. This puts the caller $5 off the money and adds $1.30 in premim (about the same as ours but we are $4 in the money).

December 4th, 2007 at 2:36 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

DELL – wow that buyback didn’t help at all! Glad I didn’t throw more money into it!

XOM flying up for some reason, they probably know something – expect Nigerian rebel attack this afternoon.

That’s 2 bounces off 13,250, which is a pretty significant level. If we can’t get the Dow back over 13,300 on this run it is very likely we’ll break below 13,250 and, judging by recent movements, perhaps a dramatic sell-off. Watch the Qs at $50.50 and then $50 for a major break and, of course, GS at $220 to lead us higher.

I don’t really understand how they could now be guaranteeing a 50-point Fed cut (85% chance) and we can’t hold 13,300 but it’s now or never into the close or I would load up some puts.

December 4th, 2007 at 2:54 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

GOOG $710s at $11.20 as a mo play with a $1 trail stop if they don’t break $685 in 15 mins or they fall back below it get out. XXX

December 4th, 2007 at 3:18 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

GE still going down! That’s a global company.

SOLF Jun $30/Dec $25 at $3.20 XXX they have a $2.50 premium and if it keeps going up from here those $30s will do well enough to cover a $5 gap. XXX

MOO is an ag ETF, seems to be a nice indicator.

Abbey Cohn (GS) is about to tell us there’s a huge rally into the end of the year and buyers are coming in towards the close. I think it’s BS as GS is heading the wrong way to confirm a rally.

Renewal discounts – there are renewal discounts I think. Let me know if there isn’t.

GOOG $640/650 – no, we can adjust that later.

December 4th, 2007 at 3:19 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

GOOG – time’s up if they can’t break it here. I’m watching Apple because if they take out $180 then I’ll have more faith in Goog.

December 4th, 2007 at 3:28 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

NEM crazy low considering $14 jump in gold. Mar/Dec $50s at $3, 5 in the $10KP and 10 in the $25KP XXX

December 4th, 2007 at 3:55 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

XOM/CVX – I’m holding but they are, for me, light entries and I will roll and DD several times if they go up.

IMCL – I’m covered with Dec $40s, this drop is a life-saver for that position but looking at this close I’m not too motivated to roll them yet. No hurry as I can roll up to the $45s and back a month each for no cost anytime.

How low can RIMM go??? And the funny thing is that 2 weeks from now people will be rushing to buy them at $140 again….

GS puts – I’d be in doubt and sell half, that was a hell of a dip for GS, you could always roll down to a lower priced put and take some off the table or roll back a month and sell the lower put to someone else who can worry about premiums and bounce backs…

Nem buying Mar $50s, selling Dec $50s yes.

AAPL $175 put – I wish I could sell it but I still don’t feel comfortable.

SOLF – no I missed it been too busy to adjust.

DRYS not pretty!

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