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Monday Virtual Portfolio Moves

December 10th, 2007 at 9:06 am | Permalink   edit   copy

AMGN – if it’s cheap but I’m not goign to sell the $50s unless it breaks below it. They had a good study reult over the weekend so I’m not sure what this is about. Obviously set a stop on the caller in case this is just silly.

December 10th, 2007 at 9:37 am | Permalink   edit   copy

UBS – I guess the assumption is that if there’s a 10% buyer then this must be the bottom. Undisclosed or not, that’s 10% of the company getting “snapped up” although it’s being snapped at a 2-year low about 30% off it’s high so, just like C – I’d be willing to risk that myself at these levels.

Mixed trading at the open. GS still weak so let’s watch them, AAPL and GOOG for directional indication. The dollar is fading already and oil is up as they shut the ship channel yet again.

RTP – it’s high risk but you want to buy your long end here and wait for a pullback to sell a short. The $480 puts are an insane $26.25 and the Apr $470 puts are just $47.20 so that’s the way to go at the moment.

December 10th, 2007 at 9:49 am | Permalink   edit   copy

Gathering strength now, things could start looking good if we can stay positive on our watch list! Not sure what it will lead to tomorrow but I’m covering my index puts for now in case this builds into another big run.

Commodities leading the way so I don’t love it but hopefully oil will be rejected at $90 and calm that sector down. Interesting TSO and VLO weak against the group. FWLT of all things, not moving.

December 10th, 2007 at 10:03 am | Permalink   edit   copy

THQI – even better going than TTWO! 8-)

Pending home sales rose 0.6% for the month, down 18.4% for the year this is roughly in-line but a relief. Very rosey forecast from NAR, says home prices will drop just 3% next year but it’s the BS people want to hear…

MBIA gets new capital, also helping.

DRYS on the move $95s for $4.70 XXX

December 10th, 2007 at 10:21 am | Permalink   edit   copy

BA $90s at $3.60 worth a gamble. XXX

ISRG – Best to roll him up to the $350 calls and pick up + $7 in premium. If you roll yourelf up to the $330s it’s about even and you add only + $5 in premium but be ready to roll him back down if we break below $350

$10KP AMGN – now we can roll down to the Apr $52.50s for $1 and set a stop on the $52.50 caller at .50 (or just buy him now for .45 as this is pretty much the bottom). XXX

December 10th, 2007 at 10:22 am | Permalink   edit   copy

Feels like we ran out of gas but I’ll keep the caution flag flying here for trades in either direction!

December 10th, 2007 at 10:50 am | Permalink   edit   copy

IMCL – $40 is good.

MVIS – they look very cool but it’s been 3 years of looking cool with no product. I can’t even imagine what the battery drain must be on that. If they ever do it, it would be great but it always seems to me that physics gets them in the end. I like them because they have lots of cool stuff but they burn a ton of cash which they finance by selling stock so it’s more a company I’d like when they catch on and break $10 or back at $1.50 but not around the mid-point.

LDK $35s! – It’s a bit late but yes, sell him into the initial excitement because you have no premium penalty in buying him out so you can roll him up to the $50s at $7.60 (costs you $11) and roll yourself to the Jun $50s at $17.70 (gives you $5) so for $6 out of pocket you drive him into $4 of premium and buy yourself 3 more months with the pending Jan roll to give you another $5 in 2 weeks.

GRMN/IBM – Yes Henk, my thoughts are don’t short Garmin and IBM! I can’t tell you how to save these as I don’t think they’ll come back unless you are lucky.

DRYS – I did not get that fill, I quote the price I see as the last sale before I place the order so I’m as annoyed as you if I don’t get it but at least it pulled back to $5 and my rule is 5% if I really want something, but in this case, I didn’t want it that badly. As much as possible I try not to buy something first and THEN tell you as I consider it unethical.

CELG – I think it’s one of those convoluted generic attacks, haven’t seen the news yet but that’s what I heard.

December 10th, 2007 at 11:09 am | Permalink   edit   copy

BXP – I offered a DD at .60 (I’m in at $1.50 on the $100s but no bites so far.

C – I would sure sell some into this, maybe 2/3 as $1.05 is a good payout for the $35s when you can roll to Jan $37.50s at .78 already.

GOOG is going! If they can break $725 we could be in very good shape but they just flushed up and didn’t trigger anything so this might be it.

AMGN – I like the Apr $52.50s still at $3 but, if you are coming in new, you should sell 1/2 the $50s, now $1.50 and more if we can’t hold $50 for the day. XXX to $10KP players too if they don’t break $50.50 by 12.

To some extent this is a dollar dump rally too which is all wrapped up in 50 point Fed cut fever. I can’t even imagine what will happen if they get no cut but I think it will be .25, the question is what they do with the window and .25 will not cut it there, not the way the financials are moving today.

Personally, with my Fund manager hat on, I’m going to damn well take something off the table after a 1,000-point move ahead of the Fed meeting so let’s watch out for high flyers of the past 10 days selling off.

December 10th, 2007 at 11:21 am | Permalink   edit   copy

CELG – It’s not a generic, it’s a Revlimid study that looks a bit off if you read it one way but not the other. I think overreaction and, of course I’m taking out my $65 caller for a dime… As to a roll, I’m going to roll myself t the Jan $50s and play for the bounce with a $1.20 sell-stop on the current $50s, now $1.55. Hopefully, it won’t come to that.

Market still strong but not a lot of breakouts yet. Why can’t Apple get green? GS hit a wall at $224, BSC stuck at $105, oil was soundly rejected at $90. LEH looking very good, MS breaking out hard but BAC just messed it up by freezing a $12Bn fund, that is not cool.

This may kill or at least retrace the financials here as it’s a nasty reminder that there are still tens of Billions of hits to take!

December 10th, 2007 at 11:31 am | Permalink   edit   copy

Oops, rates flying up yet again. Key break-up indicates they are having trouble attracting money to the dollar yet again. I don’t like this at all!

Check out THQI!

RTP took a nice dip.

DIA $133 puts – better off rolling than DD with so little time left. CVX may be more fun to DD but try to get even, not win.

XOM puts are a total disaster. The only thing to do if you are still in the $85 puts is sell the $90 puts for .85 and buy the Jan $90 puts for $1.95 and your $85s provide a backstop in case it flies down. I like the $90 puts at .85 as a gamble right here but that’s no way to try to make up a loss as you can easily make it worse.

December 10th, 2007 at 12:39 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

C – I’d wait, 2 weeks is a long time.

Hard to have a heating oil shortage when the planet is 5% warmer than it was 10 years ago. US demand is nothing compared to Europe, if they have a mild winter OPEC has some real trouble.

DIA puts – I’d go for the $135s as a gamble but it’s a double or lose half bet tomorrow. That’s not a bad risk/reward but it’s a big risk side.

DRYS – no, I don’t like catching them on the way back down after they fail to break up but if GOOG and APPL pop I’ll feel differently. We just need to see $723 and $196 along with GS $125 and we can put our rally caps back on but otherwise I’m setting stops on the winners for the long march back to cash between now and Xmas.

XOM failing $92 would be a downturn leader along with XLF not holding $32 or going back below $31.50 but this last pullback was a reaction to the BAC fund closing but it doesn’t look like a big deal.

If a weak currency were good then Japan would be conrolling the universe after 20 years of weak yens. Weak currenies are good for net exporters, which we are not. Long-term, a worthless buck will pay off our debts but only when the inflation component kicks in. At 10% inflation per year, we can cut our deficit by 30% (based on current collections)in 5 years. Unfortunately that also assumes the administration in charge earmarks the extra income to pay it off and doesn’t throw us further into debt.

Oil negative!

Interesting group Fabregas but those China plays scare me! BIDU popping by the way!

TXN – I love them but I always cover them, that is one crazy stock. My current play is ‘09 $30s and $32.50s with current $32.50s sold at .62 and even and I will take 1/2 out if they break $32.50 as this dip is a lucky break for me after yesterday. Actually, now that I’m looking at it I may as well take them out and take a chance.

DRYS looking good again.

Oil still falling very slowly.

DIAs – I just made some quick money on the morning cover and I’ll be back naked there (but not on the SPY puts) tonight and the QIDs are currently covered as they are in catch-up mode, which I play to get even, not win. My QIDs are the Jul $35s now as I’ve been rolling down along the way.

XOM Jan $90 put – If you’re not behind you can afford to wait, otherwise why risk losing more?

AMGN – yes it did hold my mark so now we want to see it close there but if the market stays up and it stays up then I think it’s worth risking waiting for a bounce. Time is on our side…

December 10th, 2007 at 1:29 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

Bid/Ask – I always go low and sometimes you get a better execution on part of your order so it averages to less than .10 but it’s more rare than not. Usually if something is .10, I’ll bid .5 and if I fill half I’ll dump the other 1/2 for .10 just to get it off my screen if I’m concerned it might go back up.

UTX – $3 is not getting away from you. Leave it alone until you get a nice roll to the $80s, then take that on probable rejection and roll to Jan once that premium dies.

PFE – roll yourself up to the Jul $25s and sell 2X the $25s to pay for it.

Jeff makes a good point – use those GTC buy orders to take out your callers cheap whenever you have a reason to think they might go down on a spike, it’s amazing what kind of stuff triggers sometimes.

AAPL is very dangerous when it gets call heavy so be careful.

FOMC – 50% chance of .50 priced in. Certainty of .50 discount window cut. I think disappointment but we’ll probably hear some bs about the housing plan tomorrow too which will boost the markets for the 6th time in 7 sessions.

DRYS – well that was a good reentry but now if it doesn’t break $94 on this run it’s better to get out.

Taking out putters – they paid for my roll up, that’s all I’m using them for so I’m leaving my long puts naked on the off chance we get a tremendous dip.

NFLX just consolidating I think.

TSO/VLO pulling the sector down with oil at $87.50 and 1 hour to NYMEX close.

December 10th, 2007 at 1:49 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

RTP $520/$480 bear put spread costs you $29 and has a more than fair chance of paying you $40. XXX You both rol up $7 per $10 and even if you lose $1 per roll, you would have to roll all the way past $600 before you lose your advantage!

Looks like some sellers are showing up here but the’re not enthusiastic about it so far. RIMM coming down hard, FTO turning down…

GS making a tempting put with the $210 puts at $3.60, stop at $3 going for $5 XXX

BIDU always good for a laugh with $380 puts that were $16 this morning now $10.70, stop at $9.50, go for $13+ XXX

December 10th, 2007 at 1:52 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

My putters are gone!

December 10th, 2007 at 1:53 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

AMGN – I’m going to hold, they droped with the market and it was on big sell, now a consensus so I’ll see if they recover. Looks more to me like they held $50…

December 10th, 2007 at 2:05 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

AMGN – if you’re out tomorrow then sell against 1/2 for sure!

HOV – sure, it’s a bet that they won’t go BK.

THQI – If you didn’t stop out your caller in the past 2 days then it’s a bit late but just wait for a retrace now.

December 10th, 2007 at 2:57 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

Uh oh, things just took an ugly turn!

December 10th, 2007 at 3:04 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

STX – I don’t think I said don’t cover ever. If you’re in from way back it’s kind if greedy not to at least sell 1/2 the $27.50s.

TM – nice gain, lock it in with Dec, you can always roll to Jan AFTER you eat the Dec premium. It is a crazy stock to trade but it’s one of those that bring in decent money and I would have no trouble doing a DD at $107 and $100 and $90 and $80 until sanity was restored.

AMGN – still holding $50!

CAT – I’d hold the $75s for a bit, good protection.

Nice wave of support right at this spot (13,700), that’s good and great if we can get the S&P back to 1,515.

December 10th, 2007 at 3:18 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

AAPL Xian – what if it goes the other way? I’d wait because, on the whole, Apple went nowhere today on a 100-point up day. That indicates tremendous trouble at $195 and, when you’re rolling a call, you want to roll a caller with no premium (since you are NOT buying premium into the excitement) into a caller with lots of premium caused by the run-up. A day-long flatline means you could be doing much better premium-wise by waiting for a run up and, if the run-up never comes, you’ll be glad for the protection.

ROFL – Blackstone denies any interest in RTP!!! Muhahaha!!! Not helping yet but investors do seem to be THAT stupid!

WM – I don’t believe that they will significantly reduce their dividend, that’s why I like them. There will be little blowback to the regional banks if this deal goes through and they hold very little paper on the homes. I personally don’t like tying anything up like that but you can always get out with a small hit if it doesn’t look good. K1 is right, unless you have some aversion to touching it or you absolutely don’t want to risk $5 on the position (the gap against your first sale), you are miles better off selling closer calls.

XMSR – lol, you guys with the 1 min charts just crack me up!

December 10th, 2007 at 3:44 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

I use 10 min charts almost exclusively. I only look at 1 min charts when I’m day trading and, even then, I find them silly. I confirm trends by flipping to 5, 15, 30, 60 and daily charts but 95% of the time I look at 10 min charts.

FSLR is a very silly stock! Not in the $10KP as far as I remember.

BXP – no fill. I love trading them as the swings in the stock are wild but the spread is ridiculous.

STX – it gets to the point (about selling the $27.50s) where you have to say, would I take ANOTHER .50 now (the premium) and get a free .50 of insurance (the intrinsic value) at no cost to myself other than capping my upside for the next 2 weeks at $28.50 or will I just risk all my profits naked?

December 10th, 2007 at 4:00 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

FXI really lagging on such a good day. I like the $180s for $11.65 but they’re risky. They were $13 this morning, $15 on Friday and $17.50 on Thurs.

MDC $62!

WM – the only position I ended up taking was selling the $17.50 puts for $1.75 in the stock virtual portfolio. I wish I’d sold 1,000 now!

BXP – sure I’m holding puts but my attitude about tomorrow is wouldn’t it be funny if everyone were disappointed and the market plunges back to 13,300? Not very likely but otherwise I’m still neutral so I need to have some fun.

A lot of people are interested in that strategy Albo, I’m going to start a portflio for those kind of plays if I find someone who wants to put up the cash. I’m going to do that for a few virtual portfolios next year to avoid conflicts with my fund.

Oh my gosh Apple is going to close red?

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