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Tuesday Virtual Portfolio Moves

December 11th, 2007 at 9:46 am | Permalink   edit   copy

CELG – well that didn’t last long but I’m not sure I’d blame them as there are a lot of things selling off harshly.

OIH is starting to be a tempting short but don’t forget we could get a 300-point run a 2:16.

SNDK – good second chance to pick them up at yesterday’s open. I still like them.

Check out RTP – Ka Ching!

Parchesia – you are right but we are facing a global credit crisis and housing correction that will suck Trillions out of the economy if not handled very gingerly. Not even great companies are spared when it really hits the fan but, if you like to stay in no matter what, then that’s the way to go.

$25KP – Selling the T $40s for .85, selling more for .85 against Jan $40s at $1.44 XXX

December 11th, 2007 at 9:47 am | Permalink   edit   copy

$25KP – oops, rolling T $37.50 caller up to $40s at .85. XXX

December 11th, 2007 at 9:54 am | Permalink   edit   copy

CAT still strong, IBM looking good, MA is amazing, I’ll be thinking about that one now. Actually the sellers look done already.

WFR coming on strong at new ATH, FCEL was a great pick, POT ATH, horsemen all rolling now, RIMM is a good catch with the Jan $105s at $9.50 being worth a risk down to $8.50 as we can always sell the Dec $103s for $6. XXX

December 11th, 2007 at 10:04 am | Permalink   edit   copy

GOOG and GS big concern, you don’t want AAPL to confirm that GOAX turn down. SU making an attractive put at $103.88 so if you don’t mind rolling 2 or 3 times the Mar $110 puts at $11 are a good way to go. XXX

The potential payoff on the QID July $35s at $5.80 is great as they are $2 from being at 1/2 of where they were in ‘06 and $15 below where they were in Aug. That makes them a great headge on positive Nasdaq plays.

THQI still going up!

CAKE looking shakey but we’re covered.

TXN – I hope you guys sold into that!

BA – last chance to buy I think…

December 11th, 2007 at 10:16 am | Permalink   edit   copy

WM holding up well.

CSCO happy about TXN’s news.

MA – I have left 30 $200 calls I sold against 20 $210s and 10 $190s and I own 20 $185 puts and 10 $210 puts that are trashed.

I’m going to spend $6 to roll my callers up to the $220s, which have $6 in premium and I will leave my calls in place, flipping the $190s to a bull call spread as they are well in the money.

On the pathetic put side, I’m going to roll my $3K worth of puts up to 10 ($6.2K) $220 puts as my exposure is to the downside and I will sell the $230 puts against them, now $11.70) against them if MA takes off. XXX

December 11th, 2007 at 10:32 am | Permalink   edit   copy

T/CSCO – maybe it just suggests that T needs some new routers… I think people read way too much into the ordinary purchase decisions that big companies make every day. Sure it’s a big order for CSCO, but that doesn’t make it a trend – this is more of an AT&T success story, which we predicted for ages.

FSLR still going up!

FNM still going down and rates are supposed to fix them.

BA – very cool reception to that report… I wouldn’t do the May spread vertical but the May/Jan $95 is much better but, of course, it’s worth selling the Decembers first as you could end up collecting $3 or $5.70 by Jan 19th. XXX If there’s any stock I’d be willing to chase down for a bounce, it’s BA. They are talking about 1,200 $70M planes, that’s $84Bn worth of new planes ordered from a company that already has $60Bn worth of sales a year. More importantly, it’s 1,200 planes worth of spare parts for 30 year and they make a lot more money on parts than they do on planes!

TXN – you may get another whack at it but even if we go back to $34.75, it is unlikely that the price of the $32.50s will go much higher than this morning’s $1.55 but I stopped out at $1.30 and will not be selling the $35s unless I can get .50 or better, otherwise I’d rather sell the $32.50s again.

AMGN – sure, $50 has been a good floor and we can always cover if things go south.

December 11th, 2007 at 10:37 am | Permalink   edit   copy

BSC $100 puts interesting at $2.35, stop at $1.90, look for $3+ XXX

December 11th, 2007 at 10:44 am | Permalink   edit   copy

RIMM collapsing again. Sorry that would be a sell for Dec, not worth risking. XXX Need 20% upside stop on short calls.

Gold turning down, that’s a little strange.

December 11th, 2007 at 10:53 am | Permalink   edit   copy

FAA – that’s because BA wisely made the 787 a logical extension of the line, not a radical departure so everyone along the process is very comfortable with what they are doing, including the regulators. The worst thing EADS can do is start actually flying A380s because the clusterf*ck they will cause at 80% of the airports they land in will lead to massive order cancellations. The A380s are designed to be customized, how stupid is that for something you intend to mass market? Ford had it right with the Model T when he said, “You can have any color you want, as long as it’s black.”

HOV and other builders with a nasty pullback – what happened to the magic Fed or is this a flush before the 500-point rally?

SHLD doing well, TXN recovering, YHOO is death, BIDU is cookoo…

EBAY – yes I will sell $35s for .85 against the Jan $35s so let’s buy them first at $1.60 and see if maybe we can sell right on the $35 rejection. XXX

December 11th, 2007 at 11:22 am | Permalink   edit   copy

$10KP:

AAPL – same as MA, rolling $175 caller up to $195 calls for -$11.60 as we owe it to him anyway. Selling the $185 calls at $13.

$25KP –

AAPL – rolling $175 caller to $195s for – $11.60. Rolling Apr $170 calls to 2X the $195s for + $9, no selling against them (the extra 5) yet but selling the $195s if we fall below $195.

SHLD – will sell the $120s for $3 or sell the $115s for $3, whichever hits it first.

GOOG – can’t move, too dangerous.

HMY – rolling Jan $10s to 2X the May $12.50s at $1.25 (+$1) and leaving callers as is for now but looking to roll them to 2x the Jan $12.50s at about .50.

LVS – rolling Jan $110s to Mar $120s about even and paying $3.75 to roll $110 caller up to $115s

NEM – stop on 1/2 caller at $2

DIA – taking out $132 putter at .48. Rolling Jan $129 puts to current $137 puts for + .75

December 11th, 2007 at 11:43 am | Permalink   edit   copy

Run up on 50 pts – I think this is a bit of a flush and we’ll run up into any crap but I’ll be shorting into that run and dumping open calls as I would much rather be safe than sorry at 14,000. If we break 14,000 and hold it for the week, it’s a different game but then we have opt exp next week and then 2 holiday weekends where something might blow up so I’m planning on being closer to 90% cash by 12/28 but that’s a 3-day week after Xmas so really expiration day is the last day of the year to seriously trade.

I just can’t justify the exposure as we know how to make money in any kind of market so we’re not “missing” an opportunity if we sit out a run, especially if we are loaded with cash when we come back in Jan after a nice relaxing 16-day break where we could care less what the markets do. So that’s my overriding plan for the next month.

AAPL roll – it wasn’t for $9 it was $9 more into the pot. The Apr $170s were $39.30 and the 2 $195s were $25 each by the time I got them which is net $10.70 more. When I looked, the last trade on the Apr $195s was considerably cheaper. I only quote the last sale I see, I try to do better but on popular trades you guys really kill me sometimes but that’s OK, we seem to manage. I need to get used to the fact that even a liquid stock like Apple isn’t all that liquid in obscure Apr contracts…

December 11th, 2007 at 11:55 am | Permalink   edit   copy

BIIB flying. ELN $25s at .62 just in case it’s one of their joint ventures as a craps roll. XXX

December 11th, 2007 at 11:56 am | Permalink   edit   copy

RIMM – of course take him out if you got a good one day gain!

December 11th, 2007 at 12:12 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

BUD – I don’t target gains. At about $55 I will likely sell the current calls against the Marches to lock in some profit. $54.47 was the ATH and I think they’ll take a while to break out but we bought them expecting a good move into the Superbowl. The writer’s strike is giving them cheaper than usual rates as the networks are getting desperate and NEED their big buyers.

December 11th, 2007 at 12:36 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

Best bang for the buck to the upside is probably the DIA $139s at .95. Low of day was .90 so I’m going to start buying here with the plan to SELL the $138s if we go the wrong way, rahter than get killed trying to sell my calls. In theory, a 150 point run should get us $1.70 so at about $1.50 I’d sell half and set stops as I very much doubt we’ll plow through 14,000 unless the Fed drops a whole point (although that would cause me to want to go all cash as something must be terribly wrong).

Woo hoo, oil up $2 today, close to $90, maybe the Fed can get us back over the hump at $90 so we can pretend it doesn’t effect the CPI some more! Interesting lack of enthusiasm from most of the energy sector considering they were up 3% on a smaller move last week.

SBUX – for shame on not having covered when they were higher. SBUX is a serial disappointer but I’d give Ben a chance to give them a boost, this looks oversold here (stops on putters of course XXX). Your check is in the mail! 8-)

December 11th, 2007 at 12:40 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

I have GOOG $650s tee’d up a mo play, currently $2.90, were $4 at some point each of the past 3 sessions. XXX if the Dow breaks 13,750.

December 11th, 2007 at 12:58 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

Fed counterpoint – 150% chance of a .25 cut, 90% chance of a 50% window cut. The Fed has been making doveish comments for 2 weeks including Ben endorsing the Paulson plan which reminded me of Greenspan endorsing adjustable loans 4 years ago. What more can they do to prop up this turkey? That’s the trick, they did not play the expectations game well and the slightest misstep might turn people off.

Last time they did everything but actually kiss Cramer’s ass on TV but we dropped 1,300 points the minute investors had a moment to sober up and look at the facts – and that was when the banks were still lying to us and telling us the damage was closer to $200Bn than the $400Bn that is creeping into consensus. What happens when it’s $600Bn? One Barron’s article can knock 500 points off this market before the bell on Monday.

Really, how often do you get a year where you are given the chance to cash out your winners near the top in December without having to risk the holidays. I’m willing to miss a little extra gain for a chance to relax for 2 weeks.

GOOG $750s, yep – showing my age there, can’t get used to the new levels!

NEM – I’d take them out, I think gold will march if the Fed comes out doveish. You can watch $51 for confirmation.

December 11th, 2007 at 1:08 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

FSLR butterfly : Sell the $250 puts and calls for $30 and buy the $270 calls for $7 and the $230 puts for $7 for a net $16 credit. This is a gamble as it’s volatile but very nice risk/reward means we can afford to spend a few bucks to reposition if we have to. XXX

December 11th, 2007 at 1:20 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

GE coming off the mats, let’s go for the Jan $37.50s at $1.25, 10 in the $10KP and $25KP, we’d like to sell current $37.50s for $1+ but let’s give the Fed a chance. XXX

December 11th, 2007 at 1:45 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

NEM – entry is still valid.

Uncoverig calls – it depends how much time you have as I expect a 100-150 point up move regardless of the Fed but then I expect a bigger down move over the next 5 days but follow GS and you are unlikely to go wrong and they are heading up. So, for convenience, I’m concentrating on just buying index calls I can sell into the excitement as recovering a bunch of positions in a wild market move always ends up being messy.

BIIB still going up, ELN stalled so don’t take a loss if it fails here ($24.60)

15 minutes!

December 11th, 2007 at 1:57 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

OXPS at ATH and having a great day.

GE – had to cover at .80, was too much premium not to sell when it topped out. XXX

Finally got some BXP $100 puts at .80, hope I don’t regret it.

NVDA making a nice move finally.

December 11th, 2007 at 2:04 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

WM taking off again! That could be a sign.

RTP coming right back, interesting as everybody denies wanting to buy them.

I’ve been going by the CNBC countdown but I finally realized it’s only 2 and these idiots have been 15 mins early with the clock!

It worked though as the rally started already and we got past 13,750 but GOOG not moving yet. GS is heading straight u.

Generally, things are getting bought at the moment.

Small business optimism lowest since 1993, 4Q outlook is negative and MS predicts recession and FNM says 2 years before housing recovers – those are the CNBC notes ahead of the Fed. Buffett says Q4 looks “soft” but we’re not going to let facts get in the way of out big finale are we?

December 11th, 2007 at 2:17 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

DIA calls – that’s your best bet to catch a rally and the GOOG $750s as a mo play but if we don’t go 200 points up, this will be a disappointment.

AAPL $190s – I’d wait as it can snap back any time.

Selling the $138s, that’s because if it goes the wrong way on me my premium will get crushed and I’d lose a quick 30% trying to buy them back (we’re not talking about 10 contracts here!) so I sell the $138s which cost more than mine and lose money faster than me to the downside, effectively a bear call spread.

C – good time for $35 puts. CEO is a big so what.

OH NO – only a 1/4 pt cut!!!!

December 11th, 2007 at 2:26 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

Holy cow it’s the apoclaypse and my virtual portfolio just jumped 20% – does that make me a bad person?

Obviously cover, the QIDs are doing great, I ended up dumping the DIAs as I got a decent enough price not to worry about it. This is sick how much they were counting on a half point – I’m not sure we’ll stop at 13,500 as all the BS run of the last two weeks was predicated on a 1/2 point cut.

Gold is going down and oil will crash now too as the dollar will bounce off unexpected tightness.

December 11th, 2007 at 2:38 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

DIA – if you are stuck in the $138 calls the best thing to do is sell the $136s for $1.75 and plan on rolling yourself to the Jan $136s if it comes back a +$2.40 so you’ll be in for $3.20, sold $1.75 of premium and if we flatline you’ll still be worth $1.75+ after your caller expires which is a $3.50 return.

All trading platforms get hit on surprise moves as everyone runs to their screens. That’s why you need to have trades tee’d up ahead of time.

Fed outlook is for weakness, this is going to freak asia out, check out the FXI. BIDU is off in some ohter happy place right now but they’ll catch on soon.

We are suffering from a buyer shortage right now, this could get ugly(er). I love to be right but the stupidity of the markets just makes me sad sometimes – these people had no plan B at all!

FWLT now my trade of the month!

… and down goes XOM!

December 11th, 2007 at 2:40 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

William – $139 calls the same plan of course.

AMGN – yes you should be covering everything, we may be going all the way back to 12,500!

December 11th, 2007 at 2:50 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

This is why I love BXP when they get too uppity! VNO just as good.

AMD real walking dead company.

Oh dear, I seriously don’t see anyone buying anything, I’m not even sure who the sellers are selling to right now..

EBAY not negative yet! TXN still green. Very nice move in DUG. As I suspected, DIG puts better than DUG calls. Look at my QIDs go!!!

Oil is holding up on false pretenses as the NYMEX closed before the full impact of the Fed could be felt so SU puts are still cheap and XOM isn’t facting up to reality like it should. SU Mar $110 puts are still my favorite but the Jan $100 puts at $3.15 aren’t bad. XOM $90 puts for $1 could get very interesting but tomorrow is inventory day so you need balls of steel for that one. XXX

Cramer’s on now, very depressed.

December 11th, 2007 at 2:52 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

BUD – because there are no good covers, we need to cash that one out for now while they are up .10 XXX

December 11th, 2007 at 2:59 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

By the way, I’m very, very happy with the Fed’s decision and I will now happily start buying long-term plays because they’re not willing to destroy the economy to make Jim Cramer happy.

MCD made a new high.

AMGN – yes fully hedge.

Now someone is putting in a bottom call, let’s see if it sticks but I see a floor forming on lots of good stocks (well assuming the ones on my watch list are good anyway). I think it may have been just a pause by sellers though as there is very little volume in the buying. We’ll see soon but if we break 13,500 at all, we are probably not coming back any time soon.

December 11th, 2007 at 3:07 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

GE – this is why I stress learning to trade over following trades. You need to know what to dow when something happens, not wait for me. Anyway, you just totally lucked out as GE just announced a $15Bn stock buyback so I’ve taken out my caller for .40 for a quick 50% gain! XXX

December 11th, 2007 at 3:13 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

Still relentless selling – I think we’re going down another 100.

December 11th, 2007 at 3:23 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

That’s great Windy!

Oh this is so ugly…

Apple condor – the way apple is capable of moving, it’s not worth the risk. Ou out of the $195 cals in the $25KP of course! XXX

December 11th, 2007 at 3:55 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

Getting out of Decembers – tomorrow is the day I like to be getting out of almost all my Decembers anyway, this couldn’t have gone better with my taking things off the table today and leaving all the puts but the intensity of this move is a little scary now.

DIA puts – move to jan and sell $135 puts to someone else to give you premium and position. You’ll cap your upside but it keeps you on the board with some cover.

BA/Anything you are considering rolling. Wait, we are only going to stop going down today because we are out of time!

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