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Monday Virtual Portfolio Moves

December 17th, 2007 at 9:35 am | Permalink   edit   copy

Gloomy – I don’t think there will be a bounce until after the new year at best so yes, rolling down (if cheap) and selling Jan callers (who will lose 1/2 their premium by Jan 2, is a good plan.

LDK – if you are in that butterfly it’s best to take out the caller now and sell yours on mo at the top, the put side will take care of itself. XXX

December 17th, 2007 at 9:39 am | Permalink   edit   copy

AAPL is just amazing!

Financials geting killed but not C – possible bottom for them. Tech actually doing pretty well on the whole with the usual suspects finding buyers. If Apple and Goog fail then it’s time to short the Nas.

Oil just broke below $90!!

December 17th, 2007 at 9:49 am | Permalink   edit   copy

LDK – that was a quick turn! Too quick for me to move so I’m stuck at the moment and trying to roll myself ($70s) to the Jan $75s, then I will roll the caller up to the $70s to get some premium and then roll him to Jan ??? at the week’s end. XXX

December 17th, 2007 at 10:07 am | Permalink   edit   copy

TSO going nuts! Citi is nuts but we’re fine with out Jan $50s and I wouldn’t roll the caller and I won’t pay him .25!

CAT with a gap down.

DNDN giving it all back, we’ll watch them.

HOT at 52-week low, not a good economy sign.

SU heading the wrong way, banking on those rebels over the actual NYMEX action. TBoon owns SU so you can guess who’s paying MENDs bills…

NEM – you should aways roll down if you can get it cheap (and you still believe in your position) it never hurts you if you can do a 35% roll, which would be about $1 on $2.50 and dollar $1.70 on $5 and $3.50 on $10. I wouldn’t be too quick to sell another caller down here as I think this is a great bottom. In fact, lets take a shot on the Mar $47.50s at $4.10 as a holiday crisis insurance play. XXX

December 17th, 2007 at 10:18 am | Permalink   edit   copy

MA got slapped by the EU on their fees, this is the story we’ve been following all summer and was the basis of our short play on them, this should be a cash out on the news event as now everybody knows – nice play for us though!

BIDU – $380 is my price target for Friday. Unless the Hang Seng totally loses it, that should be about right.

BUD is coming back.

FSLR – that’s big Fred! Just another example of how they use the media to herd the retail suckers into a stock!

BG – wheat at $10, that will run all of Ag – see MOO for confirmation there, the $51w are a good mo play at $1.65 (.40 premium). XXX

December 17th, 2007 at 10:18 am | Permalink   edit   copy

I see buyers! Let’s see how we handle 13,300.

December 17th, 2007 at 10:22 am | Permalink   edit   copy

XOM – don’t be greedy, once they dump enough barrels at the NYMEX they may try to turn it back around to pump up the last 2 days (inventory on Weds) for a big fininsh so they can give Feb contracts a good start. If XOM breaks $91 it’s time to bail for sure and oil’s over $90 again so it’s likely.

December 17th, 2007 at 10:30 am | Permalink   edit   copy

XMSR – the correct way to play is to buy the Jan $20s for $7.10 and roll the caller to the $15 puts at $5.25 so rather than paying him $2.35 at this price, you spend $4 and put yourself in a situation where you have a good chance of getting $5 back. XXX for the $25KP This is not a roll as there is no point in getting a dime for the $10s and there is no hurry to do this as he still has .35 in premium which can only change to your advantage but that’s the exit strategy for this non-working leg.

Buyers just ran out of gas right at 13,300 – Captain Obvious still rules the techicals!

December 17th, 2007 at 10:48 am | Permalink   edit   copy

$25KP:

NEM – offering $1 to toll to Mar $47.50s (should fill)

NFLX – strong in a weak market but need to get out if they fail $23.50

DIA puts – I’m so mad my roll didn’t trigger! Offering $1.10 to toll to Jan $132 puts, if rolled, will sell $131 puts for .85 ish.

XMSR – see above.

AMGN – pinned into expiration I think. Spending $1 on the roll to the Apr $50s and selling the $47.50s for $1.15 (.95 roll).

CAKE – taking out caller at .05

GE – set stop on caller at .30

GOOG – perfect. Only if GOOG breaks $696 would I even consider a move.

HMY – offerign .05 for callers.

LVS – looks good.

MSFT – cutting it close but no change.

PFE – have to wait it out

SHLD – rolling to Mar $105s for $2 if possible.

T – I think they’ll pin $40

TSO – just leaving it for now.

$10KP:

BUD – fine

DELL – hopeless

NEM – same roll

XMSR – same

AMGN – same

GE – same.

December 17th, 2007 at 11:01 am | Permalink   edit   copy

XOM – drop from $93, bounce off $90, retrace to $90.60 is manadatory. $90.67 is 2.5% rule so if they fail around here we’re probably looking at another nice drop. If the Dow fails another run at 13,300, we should be heading to our midpoint of 13,150 at least but you can argue that 13,000 is the mid-point after that nasty dip we had at the end of November.

INTC – $9 run since April, they could use a little pullback. Holding $26.20 would be a 20% pullback there and a bullish sign.

CVX/Any oil puts – it’s time to sell half if you were behind and this catches you up. If you are ahead you should set tight stops on half and stops on the other half that preserve at least a 10% profit. Oil is due for a major collapse and I’m going to ride it out but, as you can see from TSO/VLO, it doesn’t take much to rally them on you.

SU made a nice turn off that silly run.

RIMM still pathetic ahead of earnings.

Bubbles – which caller?

35% roll – I mean it never hurts to improve your position by, for example, $10 in strike by spending $3.50 or the roll your caller/putter away on the same basis if he is worrying you at all.

FSLR – and don’t forget that they are just 2 years away from some Chinese firm mopping the floor with them. The low end of the solar market is NOT where you want to be long-term.

C is cranking!

December 17th, 2007 at 11:25 am | Permalink   edit   copy

Bush coming in 20min!!!!

BIDU – I sold the $380s myself, now $8.50, you can do that and roll yourelf up or, better yet roll yourself to the $390s for $9 as his $380s are all premium and there would be a $18.50 gap between you before you owe him more than his money back which should leave you in great shape to roll him to Jan for + 20 which would be more than enough to roll yourself to Mar for a very nice spread.

LDK – it’s a reasonable risk to sell the $65 puts since you are already in the cover.

MA – oh absolutely, that was the drop we were waiting for, otherwise their numbers should be great.

GOOG $700s – If we can’t hold $680 then you should roll down to them! The $680s have $9 in premium, more than the $690s and you could use the protection more so than trying to sharpen you psychic skills guessing the perfect strike. That’s on the 1/3 as you are better safe than sorry and it can’t hurt you too much and the extra $6 works out to $2 per contract more protection on your whole set, making it less important to roll the $690s until you are sure you need to.

December 17th, 2007 at 11:40 am | Permalink   edit   copy

ADBE – I would go Apr/Dec $42.50s as the Decembers will be crushed 10 seconds after the open and then you can roll to whatever Jan for another .80 or so in premium which pays off half the Aprils with 2 more months to go.

XMSR – oops, I guess I was looking at the $17.50s! OK we have a $15 putter that we owe $2 to (intrinsic value). We buy the $20s for $7.40 and we will roll him down to the $12.50s if XMSR dropps a bit more, perhaps if the spread goes as low as $1.50. Once we capture that premium, we will roll the caller to the Jan $15s at $3.55 because we have to guard against the buyout. If XMSR stays below $15 through Jan expiration, we get $5 back on that spread but it’s possible we’ll have a chance to adjust it and improve ourselves later.

HOV – I sold the $7.50s. You are asking the wrong question, it’s not about whether it’s “safe” to sell the $7.50s as you are worried about them going up, it’s about whether it’s “safe” NOT to cover your own calls…

December 17th, 2007 at 11:50 am | Permalink   edit   copy

XMSR being dropped is irrelevant if their symbol is going to be deleted anyway, that’s a hell of a silly reason to drop this stock.

AAPL – I’d be ready for a bounce if the premiums weren’t so crazy! I like buying the $180s for $8.60 and selling the $185s, now $5.10 for as much as possible BUT ONLY if we start heading up as wa whole market.

The Nas is testing 2,600 – so bad if it fails. S&P blew 1,460 already, Dow is heading straight to 13,200 thanks to the CinC demonstrating that government hasn’t got a clue of what to do to fix this economy. No word from Bush about the lender plan is going to freak the financials out as they are worried it’s doomed.

Check our DRYS! That cannot be a good economic sign.

YHOO decides today is a good day to die.

AMGN 52-week low.

MON likely but hard to buy anything right now.

RIMM Dec $100s are still $6.55! You can sell them against the Apr $100s at $15.70. Whether you think RIMM will go up, down or sideways, this is a good play. XXX 5 in the $10KP, 10 in the $25KP.

December 17th, 2007 at 12:23 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

Europe closed same place as they opened, down 1.5% not very encouraging when Bush thinks this disaster is a good time to work on his comedy routines.

SIRI – that’s a tough one. There’s only a tiny premium so I guess it’s the same as buying Apple, if they break $3.25 AND the market is moving with them, then play the mo but you probably want to re-cover at $3.40-$3.45 or just get out of those Jans or roll them back…

Don’t forget what a rotten deal Jan calls and puts are so don’t be the sucker owning them and sell as many as you can.

December 17th, 2007 at 1:16 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

Executing spread – yes you have to execute the spread simultaneously. If your trading platform doesn’t allow you to enter spreads A) get a new broker and B) call the trading desk and have them do it manually but you will also have to follow that procedure for every move you make to adjust so perhaps you should sit this trade out if it is going to be such a pain in the ass.

Oh good, so the purpose of that little run was to prove absolutely that 13,300 is a ceiling now…

RIMM – absolutely DO NOT let any caller or putter expire in the money unless you are mega experienced and well-funded.

MU – buy down here ($7.92) snd sell the $8s for .28, that’s a nice 3.8% return in 5 days. After that (assuming you don’t get called away) you can sell the Jan $7.50s for .78, reducing your basis to $6.92 where getting called away at $7.50 would be an 8.4% return for 5 weeks. XXX

Ooops, yes if we go over 13,300, which we didn’t…

RTP – I was kind of hoping he’d bounce back but it doesn’t look likely. What was Friday because I have a few of these at this point?

Down goes Google! …and the markets probably.

December 17th, 2007 at 2:32 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

DNDN – I don’t think anyone needs to ask why I like the DNDN Feb $5s for $1.76 XXX No sale at the moment but we want .50 for 1/2 on the Jan $7.50s

RTP – oh good, I was worried it was a closer spread. He stil has $6 in premium and isn’t really worth rolling since you give up $7 in protection to gain $3 in premium by rolling him down to the $410s. We pick up $10+ on Friday rolling him to the Jan $410 puts, which will leave us in excellent shape.

JD – was that straddle GS? You’re still taking on $10 of risk on each side and I really doubt GS is going down so it’s kind of a waste of money. If you want to play them take the Jan $210s for $12.25 and sell 3/4 the Dec $210s for $12.50 and you’ll make out like a bandit on anything but a big jump but even if you end up paying him $20, you’ll still have probably 4×15 + 1 month vs. paying him about $5 per contract of yours.

Nice bounce here, don’t get too excited but it’s better than nothing!

December 17th, 2007 at 3:07 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

Don’t forget 13,150 was my target for the day so we expect a bounce off that back to 13,185 on the way down. If we don’t get a bounce, covering would be a good general idea!!!

December 17th, 2007 at 3:26 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

It’s up to Goog and Apple now, we need to get $676 and $186 and the Qs need to get back over $50 and we’ll be at least kind of sort of getting off that low.

December 17th, 2007 at 3:31 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

AAPL Apr $175s for $29, selling the Jan $185s for $13+ XXX

December 17th, 2007 at 3:46 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

Not sustaining the run, don’t get too brave with uncovered positions. XXX

December 17th, 2007 at 3:58 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

Which apple $175/$185?

Flushing was the huge sell-off right into Paulson’s speech when clearly the speech (pre-released) was positive but the market is weak enough that it’s not bouncing back too easily from that sell-off. There was a real attempt to get back but it all fell apart pretty quick as the Qs failed $50 but I wouldn’t be surprised if we get a gap up tomorrow once they get a chance to spin what Bush and Paulson had to say.

We’re mission accomplished for the day, finishing at the mid-point of our range without catastrophic damage to Apple or Goog (so far).

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