Archive for 2007

Weekly Wrap-Up


That's a pretty good week!  That was our gain on capital on 47 closed positions that were open an average of 22 days.  The average gain was "just" 304%. 

The reason for this astounding performance is that we stopped out of a couple of old favorites; AMZN October $45s and $65s that we were lucky enough to pick up in April and smart enough NOT to sell against heading into earnings contributed 13% of our gains and the FXI Jan $115s, that we've been selling against since Jan 10th, finally got called in with a 482% return.  Whenever we close successful Long-Term Virtual Portfolio plays it makes us look great on cash returns but this was an unusually good week where we got a great market spike and we cynically sold into it, our timing won't always be this good!

There were only 6 losing positions closed and the only one over 20% was a short-lived AMZN $65 put that we took to lock in our gains on the October calls, hardly worth crying over.  We had daily doubles on ICE, GSK, COP, QQQQ and BIIB – always a virtual portfolio booster, but otherwise it was just a run of good picks.  Of course closing out all these winners leaves the Short-Term Virtual Portfolio with 80 open positions at an average cash loss of 8.72% as we took all our big gainers off the table but we leave ourselves very well balanced and ready for anything next week.  All of the STP's losses (and then some) can be traced to our large protective puts on the DIA but, without those, we never would have hung on to our closed positions long enough to make them pay for those losses 4 times over.

Despite our best intentions, we only managed to pare 17 positions off the Short-Term Virtual Portfolio and much of that is only because I moved several complex plays to a new tab calles "Spreads" as the size of the STP was starting to annoy me from a tracking perspective.  Taking these slow moving, multi-leg trades out of the Short-Term Virtual Portfolio let's us concentrate on the things that actually need watching during the day.

Our Long-Term Virtual Portfolio has dropped from last week's gain on capital of 77% to just 60% this week as we removed a few huge winners and we now have just…
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Friday Virtual Portfolio Moves

Posted May 25, 2007 at 9:33 am | Permalink (Edit)

Day trade, I’m already mentally on vacation – just want to see how we handle 13,500 this morning. But I am getting back into the same oil puts we picked up over the last 2 days if they run up nicely. XXX

Posted May 25, 2007 at 9:43 am | Permalink (Edit)

Casinos down again, possibly just a holiday terror worry. We can watch airlines to see if thy have simiilar concerns..

OIH is tops on my list for more puts as OPEC just said, no increased output. We picked up the July $160 puts for $2.70 yesterday, now $4.60 but I’m offering $3 for more, just in case. XXX

IPhone out 6/20 is looking confirmed! I’m in doubt so buiying out 1/2 my $110 caller at $4.65 and scaling back my Oct puts too. Adding Oct $125s for $5.55 to sell against on some crazy spike that may come but just a small hunch bet that I will roll down if Apple drops. XXX

Posted May 25, 2007 at 9:44 am | Permalink (Edit)

PTR back in the June $125 puts at $1.75 XXX

Posted May 25, 2007 at 9:53 am | Permalink (Edit)

I’m very big on my BTU and CHK puts.

Posted May 25, 2007 at 9:55 am | Permalink (Edit)

Our pals at BIIB are moving again, taking a chance with some $50s for .85 as they were great last time but still stopping 1/2 at $1.15 XXX

Posted May 25, 2007 at 9:56 am | Permalink (Edit)

Let’s make that BIIB a $10KP move with 10 contracts. XXX

Posted May 25, 2007 at 10:15 am | Permalink (Edit)

SNE moving but not in a good spot for calls.

BIIB note – when I say $1.15 I mean at about $1.15 get 1/2 out if it even slows down but that doesn’t mean ask 1.15 as it’s trending up strong. The day trading aspects of this…
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Are we going to have a down week?

I know. what’s a down week?  We did have one – way back in the last week of March, when the Dow closed an annoying Q1 with a 150 point drop and we thought 12,500 was starting to look like pretty strong resistance.  Low expectations (DHI’s CEO said the year was going to "suck" on March 8th) led to lots of earnings beats and the rest of the World carried the ball whenever we hesitated so far in Q2.

The last week of March was when we decided to turn bullish as I pointed out that the declining dollar and inflation would be GOOD for the market and my advice was to cynically go with the flow: "Let’s not think of it as fiddling while Rome burns, think of it as seeing a big fire (of burning dollars) and being savvy enough to grab a stick and start roasting some marshmallows."  I recommend rereading that artlcle for anyone who is having a tough week as I think the pattern we’re in this week is very similar (to be confirmed by a 50% retracement of yesterday’s drop).

If we do get a couple of week’s of consolidation around 12,500 then we will have played this perfectly as that’s about where we hedged out our positions, especially the calls we sold against our longer-term positions but let’s keep alert and be ready to go with the flow as we are still in danger of a big break in either direction.

I missed yesterday’s 300-point Hang Seng drop prediction by 22 points, I promise to go over my charts this weekend and see where I went wrong…  The Nikkei also pulled back 215 points but I suppose they don’t watch the Shanghai B shares either because foreigners jumped back into that market, snapping back 1/3 (8%) of the week’s dropHow much money would we be able to make if the Dow went up and down 8% on two consecutive days?  I’m organizing a field trip to Shanghai this fall so we can all open some options accounts over there!  India, surprisingly, went up 120 points.

North Korea must have had puts on something as they ran some missile tests yesterday and Criminal Narrators Boosting Crude will make much of it but it’s the same exercise they run every…
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Thursday Virtual Portfolio Moves

Posted May 24, 2007 at 9:45 am | Permalink (Edit)

TASR – There’s Rule #1 “Always sell into the initial excitement” as well as Rule #2 “When in doubt, sell half” as well as Rule # 3, which is “If you ignore rule number rule number one and number two then why are you even bothering to read rule number 3?” They got 4 orders today, one for $1.4M and 3 more from US police so just let’s see if it holds $10. If it holds $10 and the market stays strong, we might be able to wait a bit but TASR is unlikely to buck the broad markets no matter how good the news is.

Posted May 24, 2007 at 9:55 am | Permalink (Edit)

TSO – DD’d on sold $120 puts, other oils normal stop outs. Will rebuy into weekend.

Posted May 24, 2007 at 9:56 am | Permalink (Edit)

Going for the TIE Jul $40s we were looking at yesterday for $1.55 XXX

Posted May 24, 2007 at 9:59 am | Permalink (Edit)

FXI dosn’t see a recovery, doesn’t that seem odd?

Posted May 24, 2007 at 10:01 am | Permalink (Edit)

BA is boosting the Dow. Bush on at 11 re. Iraq spending victory and immigation reform, probably not market moving but might help defense.

New home sales up 16%, up 27% in the south. Out of DIA and Q puts agains! XXX

Posted May 24, 2007 at 10:04 am | Permalink (Edit)

This is insane, it’s like this was tailored to negate Greenspan’s statement.

Same as yesterday, setting stops as any stock that can’t take this as good news doesn’t belong in the virtual portfolio!

Posted May 24, 2007 at 10:05 am | Permalink (Edit)

13,600 – can we break it?

Posted May 24, 2007 at 10:11 am | Permalink (Edit)

IBM $105s for $2.20 with a .30 Tstop as a mo play XXX

Oil topping already?…
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Thrilling Thursday Wrap-Up

What a wild ride that was!


We had it all today, the highs, the lows the thrills the spills, with a 190-point drop from our highs to our lows and we had a great time playing it because it was pretty much just what we expected.

Except for one thing – shenanigans!  I was forced to call shenanigans twice yesterday:  In the morning, I wasn't buying the rally saying:

  • 9:59: "FXI dosn’t see a recovery, doesn’t that seem odd?"
  • 10:04: "This is insane, it’s like this was tailored to negate Greenspan’s statement. Same as yesterday, setting stops as any stock that can’t take this as good news doesn’t belong in the virtual portfolio!"
  • 10:11: "Oil topping already?  All mo trades terminate and all stops tighten if the Dow cant hold 13,600."
  • 10:20: "Saved myself .20 of the drop on the DIAs so I’m scaling back into the $136 puts at $130 (maybe 100 per hour unless we break back below 13,600 – S&P still not making record so I’m getting suspicious again)."
  • 10:28: "Daily double likely to come on the put side today, oil slipping, transports slipping CHINA B SHARES ARE DOWN 25% IN 3 DAYS, GE flat, Google rejected at $480, BA-AXP-HD-XOM accounting for most of the Dow rally…:

Needless to say we had a great time taking momentum puts all the way down from 13,600 to 13,450 including, of course, our many energy puts but at 11:40 we were already rolling out of our QQQQ puts (a little early) as they had doubled and I said: "2,550 is very key on the Nasdaq, as is 1,515 on the S&P and , sadly now 13,500 on the Dow – boy I predicted a test but this is like a final exam for this rally!"

I made a tentative bottom call at 1:04, with the Dow at 13,492: "TASR holding up nicely.  I am thinking bottomish here. I’m way behind on DIAs but $1.80 on the QQQQ $48 puts is plenty! " At 1:46 my premise was: "Don’t force things and don’t panic. I see UPS coming back and FDX coming back, AGN is going up and up and up… This may be a settling point. What I’m doing is taking insurance coverage
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Thrilling Thursday Morning

Another exciting day in the markets!

We're pretty much neutral position wise and would probably benefit from a nice downturn but we don't like to hope for such things so we'll just say we're well insured.

Did Greenspan derail the rally yesterday or judiciously apply a little pressure on the brakes?  As I said in yesterday's comments: "Greenspan does nothing by accident."

What must be an accident is the negligence of the mainstream media to cover the fact that Shanghai "B" shares, the kind owned by foreigners, dropped 7.9% last night, the third consecutive daily loss, closing at 297.57, down 24% from 371.26 on Monday.  This drop is not reflected in the Shanghai Composite, which lists the "A" shares controlled by the Chinese (not that they would ever manipulate the market, of course!).

[Henry Paulson]All this could be just  a coordinated punishment by "our side," of course, as major economic talks with China yielded little results, an embarrassment to Paulson, Congress and Bush.  Hank Paulson is probably just under Putin on the list of people you don't want to have angry at you – perhaps number one if you are an economy rather than a dissident who can't hold their Polonium.  President Bush handed the China economic virtual portfolio to Mr. Paulson based on the former Goldman Sachs chief executive's fat China Rolodex, and his experience cutting deals there during more than 70 trips to the country.

According to Bloomberg: "On issues ranging from defusing trade tensions with China to overhauling Social Security, the former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. chief executive officer is playing down the notion of breakthroughs. Instead, he's talking about laying foundations for his successors.  Behind the reduced expectations, just a year after he was nominated for the job, is the plunge in Bush's popularity. Largely because of the Iraq war, Republicans lost control of Congress in last year's elections; a Newsweek poll showed this month that the president's approval rating slid to 28 percent, the lowest for any U.S. leader since President Jimmy Carter in 1979."

 Asian markets were down across the board but it really bothers me that the WSJ, who are in a fight to maintain their "journalistic integrity" against the onslaught of Rupert Murdoch (another Billionaire you don't want…
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Wednesday Wrap-Up


I thought we got rid of that guy but there he goes again, pointing out the obvious and taking away our punch bowl again…

The notorious Alan G, ever the master of timing told the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday that China was "overheating as a consequence of fairly rapid increases in the money supply, which has been going up approximately 20 percent a year" which seemed innocuous at the time but he followed that up addressing a conference in Madrid saying  that the recent boom in Chinese stocks was "clearly unsustainable".

Gee, ya think?  The Shanghai Composite is up 55% this year and 278% in the past two year, at that pace it would outstrip the Dow in 2009 so the song I now have stuck in my head is "Tiny Bubbles."

China “is another one of these classic hot and speculative markets that will end in tears,” said Hugh Young, who oversees $35 billion as managing director at Aberdeen Asset Management Asia Ltd. in Singapore. “It’s hard to be bullish about anything at the moment because everything has done so well.

Chinese shares are grossly overvalued, which is a concern for many investors in Asia,” said Tom Murphy, who manages about $1 billion in Asian assets at Deutsche Bank AG in Sydney.  Investors must sign "caveat emptor" declarations when they open brokerage accounts to acknowledge their awareness of the risks in buying stocks, the China Securities Regulatory Commission said in a notice on its Web site.

Oh, now everyone decides to say something!  Ah well, it didn’t bother us today as we lost our enthusiasm for the rally by 10:11 when I called for setting stops on all our positions after noting that "AMD doesn’t see a rally" and moving to reposition our DIA and QQQQ puts buy selling into the rally and rebuying later in the day.  This was a good call so far as both positions are doing well with our QQQQ $48 puts already up 34% with 1/3 already pulled off the table (as we don’t like to make 30% in a day without cashing in a little).  Mega kudos to OPtrader, who called it at 10:22, saying: "I know it’s dangerous to try and call a top, but I just sold all calls and I am slowly starting to buy puts here."

Unlike the rest of the World, at
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Wednesday Virtual Portfolio Moves

Posted May 23, 2007 at 9:46 am | Permalink (Edit)

GOOG – be careful shorting them in any way. If they hold $480 they are likely to take any excuse to make another jump.

Posted May 23, 2007 at 9:48 am | Permalink (Edit)

WFR – bought back half my callers at $2…

Posted May 23, 2007 at 9:54 am | Permalink (Edit)

AMD doesn’t see a rally.

NYX pulling back so protecting not a bad idea here! XXX $90s are $2.60 and way out of the money.

Posted May 23, 2007 at 10:01 am | Permalink (Edit)

CTSH – I wouldn’t. Looks more like a bottom to me.

Out of DIA and QQQQ puts by the way and will rebuy once this run is done. XXX

TIE making a move. ATI too but would like to see confirmation from AIR or BEAV before I assume it’s something other than metal mania.

X is flying too. $110s for $3.15 as a mo play with a .50 tstop. XXX

Posted May 23, 2007 at 10:07 am | Permalink (Edit)

If BA shakes off guidance report than we are mooooing in the markets today.

There goes AIR and BEAV. Damn, got to be fast these days! I’d buy BEAV but it’s in a bad place between contracts and I don’t trust it yet, would rather pay up for July $40s if it breaks $37.50.

Posted May 23, 2007 at 10:11 am | Permalink (Edit)

As a rule of thumb I am still pulling things that drop 20% of my profits as anyone who can’t go straight up in this market is suspect and I simply have too many positions that have gained too much anyway…

BIIB flying and that’s another don’t ask just buy kind of stock so I’m picking up the $50s at .60, half out at .80+ XXX

Posted May 23, 2007 at 10:16 am | Permalink (Edit)

Inventory is a crude build at least or they wouldn’t have dumped all those…
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Wild Wednesday Morning

Hey-ho, let's go!

I've got a song stuck in my head and you will suffer…  This is one of my power songs, the kind I crank up on the IPod when I'm zooming down a mountain on skis or driving too fast on the way to the shore.  That's the kind of day this is – things look very, bright this morning (oops, that's another song!).

Nothing get's the blood pumping better than good rock and roll or your holdings in WFR being added to the S&P unless it's AMEX announcing you can now charge your mortgage (and get frequent flier miles) and having the futures move into full breakout mode certainly doesn't hurt either.

Hank Paulson had his shades on yesterday as he greeted Chinese delegates but took time to go on CNBC to assure viewers that the housing "slump is largely over."  This was a great coincidence on the day the Kirk Kerkorian made a move on MGM and their ambitious CityCenter project in Las Vegas.  Also coincidental was the Fed's Bear-in-Chief, Jeff Lacker, suddenly deciding that "The current funds rate has us on track to achieve what we want," he told reporters after a speech to the Money Marketeers of New York University. "So I'm comfortable with where the funds rate is now."

We caught onto this yesterday afternoon when my comment, after observing several moves in bankers and builders was: "MTN flying too – something has changed in real estate."

The market looks so good today that AL want's to say no thanks to $27Bn from AA, saying they think they can do better, setting a stage for a major brouhaha in the Aluminum market.  RTP has $7.5Bn in ready cash, BHP has $8.7Bn, AA $9Bn… and that's a mere pittance compared to what the foreign firms can put down if they convert their good currencies into dollars.  MT could buy anyone in the group for cash and don't forget that there's nothing stopping AL, with $7.6Bn in current assets and a $30Bn market cap, from turning around and buying AA, with a $30Bn cap.  Wheeee!

Speaking of wheeeee, I'm getting instant action on my call to arms against oil as the House passes a bill to sue OPEC, which you would think I'd be happy…
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Tepid Tuesday Wrap-Up

Well that was a bit disappointment.

We got leadership from the Russell and the Nasdaq so all is certainly not lost but it would have been nice if we could have had a positive close across the board:














Dow 13,539 -3 12,468 12,600 13,000 13,500
Transports 2,925 10 2,825 2,900 3,000 3,250
S&P 1,524 -1 1,430 1,460 1,500 1,550
NYSE 9,900 3 9,218 9,465 9,600 10,000
Nasdaq 2,578 20 2,454 2,500 2,600 2,750
SOX 493 2 477 490 500 560
Russell 839 6 803

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Zero Hedge

Auto Shares Surge As Fiat, Renault Confirm Merger Talks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With President Trump in Japan for a state visit and most of Europe headed to the polls to vote in the quinquennial EU Parliamentary elections, there was enough news to keep market watchers occupied during what was supposed to be a quiet holiday weekend in the US. 

But on top of these political headlines, on Saturday afternoon, the news broke that Italian-American carmaker Fiat Chrysler had approached France's Renault with a merger proposal that would leave the shareholders of each carmaker with half of the combined company, in a tie-up that would create the world's third-largest au...

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Phil's Favorites

Trump and the problem with pardons


Trump and the problem with pardons

Courtesy of Andrew Bell, Indiana University

As a veteran, I was astonished by the recent news that President Trump may be considering pardons for U.S. military members accused or convicted of war crimes. But as a scholar who studies the U.S. military and combat ethics, I understand even more clearly the harmful long-term impact such pardons can have on the military.

My researc...

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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ... more from Insider

Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...

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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!

Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!

Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control


Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...

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DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University


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More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...

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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism


The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"



Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:


·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union


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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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