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Wild Wednesday Morning

Hey-ho, let's go!

I've got a song stuck in my head and you will suffer…  This is one of my power songs, the kind I crank up on the IPod when I'm zooming down a mountain on skis or driving too fast on the way to the shore.  That's the kind of day this is – things look very, bright this morning (oops, that's another song!).

Nothing get's the blood pumping better than good rock and roll or your holdings in WFR being added to the S&P unless it's AMEX announcing you can now charge your mortgage (and get frequent flier miles) and having the futures move into full breakout mode certainly doesn't hurt either.

Hank Paulson had his shades on yesterday as he greeted Chinese delegates but took time to go on CNBC to assure viewers that the housing "slump is largely over."  This was a great coincidence on the day the Kirk Kerkorian made a move on MGM and their ambitious CityCenter project in Las Vegas.  Also coincidental was the Fed's Bear-in-Chief, Jeff Lacker, suddenly deciding that "The current funds rate has us on track to achieve what we want," he told reporters after a speech to the Money Marketeers of New York University. "So I'm comfortable with where the funds rate is now."

We caught onto this yesterday afternoon when my comment, after observing several moves in bankers and builders was: "MTN flying too – something has changed in real estate."

The market looks so good today that AL want's to say no thanks to $27Bn from AA, saying they think they can do better, setting a stage for a major brouhaha in the Aluminum market.  RTP has $7.5Bn in ready cash, BHP has $8.7Bn, AA $9Bn… and that's a mere pittance compared to what the foreign firms can put down if they convert their good currencies into dollars.  MT could buy anyone in the group for cash and don't forget that there's nothing stopping AL, with $7.6Bn in current assets and a $30Bn market cap, from turning around and buying AA, with a $30Bn cap.  Wheeee!

Speaking of wheeeee, I'm getting instant action on my call to arms against oil as the House passes a bill to sue OPEC, which you would think I'd be happy about but I'm not as it is attacking the wrong end of the problem.  OPEC, bless their slick little souls, is "only" marking up a barrel of crude $30 at the most but our friends in California are paying $4 per gallon for gas.  At 42 gallons a barrel that's $168 for a $65 barrel of crude so $103 of costs are being squeezed out of you right here in the good old USA.  Attacking OPEC is fun and easy but it deflects our attention from the real issue right here at home.

This is a typical lobbyist trick, deflecting Congress' attention away from the real contributors crooks  to focus on a foreign an easy target that will divert the public's attention and make for lots of bullsh*t fiery campaign rhetoric that will ultimately accomplish nothing while they bleed American consumers dry at the rate of $1.7Bn a day (20M barrels a day times 42 gallons per barrel times $2 more than we paid before Bush took office).

While this cartoon alludes to taxes being part of the problem, gas prices have risen so far as to make taxes a very small part of the problem and a Civil Society survey finds that more than half of Americans would support higher gas taxes if the money went to alternate fuel research.  Mr. Gore – the people are finally ready for you - oh wait, more than half the people already voted for him…

Over in China, you don't vote for anybody and the Shanghai Stock Exchange is flourishing under the weight of all that oppression and jumped another 1.5% this morning, led by banking and real estate.  This is not too surprising with close to 1M people a week opening brokerage accounts in China, as I said on Monday, they are putting $2.5T of cash to work so, if this is a bubble, it can be a pretty big one.  Our decision to buy out our TM caller yesterday was a good one as Toyota was snapped up in Nikkei trading this morning along with our long-suffering MTU leaps as that company jumped 4.4% (1/2 off the table, selling calls into the excitement!).

BHP and RTP led European markets higher as merger mania is no longer confined to Mondays.  Russia's Norilsk Nickel is buying LionOre for $6.28Bn and BAB is bidding on Iberia Airlines and the EU is clearing a $2.2Bh deal between BMG and Univeral.  Marks and Spencer (Britain's Macy's) reported a 26% jump in earnings and is firing on all cylinders, much like the EU economy!  Crazy socialists that they are though, the EU is clamping down on roaming fees charged to mobile phone customers as THEY don't like their citizens to be gouged.















Dow 13,539 -3 12,468 12,600 13,000 13,500
Transports 2,925 10 2,825 2,900 3,000 3,250
S&P 1,524 -1 1,430 1,460 1,500 1,550
NYSE 9,900 3 9,218 9,465 9,600 10,000
Nasdaq 2,588 9 2,454 2,500 2,600 2,750
SOX 493 2 477 490 500 560
Russell 839 6 803 820 850 900
Hang Seng 20,798 -44 20,200 20,600 21,000 22,000
Nikkei 17,705 25 17,400 17,500 18,300 18,500
BSE (India) 14,363 -90 13,200 14,000 14,725 15,000
DAX 7,721 62 6,900 7,000 7,400 8,000
CAC 40 6,109 20 5,650 5,800 6,000 7,000
FTSE 6,642


6,325 6,450 6,600 7,000

The FTSE came close to our 6,600 watch level yesterday but took a neat bounce off it at the close and hasn't looked back today (9 am).  Anything down (other than oil) will be a huge disappointment today but the dollar is breaking up so let's keep an eye on gold at $660 as well as oil at $65.

Zman's been having some computer troubles but let's look sharp today as we head into the 10:30 oil inventory report but I'm on plan to stick with the puts over the holiday weekend but taking 1/2 off on the spikes per our DD and reduce strategy.

Mega kudos to Happy Trading, Gary and everyone else who followed him on last week's MGM trade, 17 times in a week is a pretty good return, even in such a good market.  Our S&P chart of the day says it all - so have a good one:




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  1. Phil, I feel like i am in the movie Back to the Future III…..Is great that today’s portfolio moves are already posted! They do seem to have a deja vu quality to them though……


    Yes you should be on stage, and there’s one leaving ……

  3. WFR- thanks for the info! I missed it!

  4. stage leaving? :???:

  5. zman post up, better late than never.

    P – I couldn’t agree with you more on the NOPEC bill.

  6. Was in the top 100 in the CNBC second chance contest until I picked AZO yesterday, now 2750!!!

  7. stagecoach. Never mind ….

  8. tis ok….mind moving a bit slow right now….better get more coffee!

  9. IBN – headed down 1-3% today (based on it’s action in India). Looking to add to Jun Puts.

    INFY – Still short, but looking for option plays if it goes below $49.70. What Phil had suggested a couple of days ago, I didn’t get filled and a bit too complex. I am still looking for INFY to go $45-$46 Jun-Aug and go back up towards end of 2007 (if the rest of the markets are up).

  10. Oh did I write the wrong day? Oh well, anything that worked yesterday should work today. Please not that I meant Cypress Bioscience, not Cypress Semiconductor and all shall be well…

    Ah Karm, not taking it off the table again…

    IBN – good, I was beginning to feel silly for selling the $45s!

  11. Sold half the WFR Jun 60′s for $2 + 74%…..still think will be over 60 by Jun exp. so am hoarding the other 50%

  12. MSQuare
    I got a play to short CTSH from a newsletter last night!

  13. Sold GOOG Jun 480s against 470s.

  14. GOOG – be careful shorting them in any way. If they hold $480 they are likely to take any excuse to make another jump.

    Nice run-up into inventories but I’m not adding unless we get back to low prices of the week on puts.

    Oh great, another military execise in the Gulf on inventory day – very interesting scheduling – again!

  15. WFR – LOL bought back half my callers at $2… Thanks Karm!

  16. Ok, Z. You now should have 8 votes. Everyone should vote for Z as the best business blog. However, Z you did let me get out of EOG too early even if I did have a double. BTW, EOG CEO on Fast Money last night pumping his stock big time.


  17. Traders may be getting short gasoline. Expectations went from a 1.5 million barrel expected build in gasoline stocks to an 800,000 barrel build yesterday. Lots of very negative expectations including my favorite, phil flynn at alaron to drag the bar down. That’s probably good news for those of you out there with refining shorts on as the last time they swung the numbers so hard was back in Feb when they helped orchestrate this run in prices.

  18. Phil:

    I sold 480s for $1 more than I had in the 470′s so I thot a pretty good play.

  19. CTSH – I am a bit scared to naked short it. Would welcome option plays please.

    I think it continues downwards till low $70s this summer and will recover late-2007 if the rest of NASDAQ up. Pretty good tell is INFY and as per my reading of both, INFY leads CTSH in price action. INFY announces earnings before CTSH, drifts down and then CTSH follows 2-5 days later.

    Both are risky trying to play on their downside as a single big contract win news can swing them up 5% in minutes…Options not very liquid but swing lesser…

  20. ss Phil :oops:

  21. Albo – agreed, locking in probably $10 gain on the 15th and protecting yourself is never a bad play.

    AMD doesn’t see a rally.

    NYX pulling back so protecting not a bad idea here! XXX $90s are $2.60 and way out of the money.

  22. Let’s watch 1530 again.

  23. Z – I am upside down on the TK june calls – any thoughts with the gas reports today? Thanks

  24. White House threatens to Veto price gouging bill! @#*$ers…How do they get away with this.

  25. Gasoline price gouging bill, that is.

  26. jazz – did you take the 20% in WHT (the stock, not the option) from this morning? Sorry you only got that double. lol.

  27. TK – I’m holding through inventories. We need to see whether or not last week’s drop in crude imports was a blip or the start of something else. Of course, just because barrels don’t make it into port b/c its so crowded right now that doesn’t mean the tankers aren’t getting paid. They get paid to wait around too.

  28. PHIL
    OLD friend GRMN almost at $60
    JOSB- should have bought on that sell off to $37.50 like you talked about. I DID

  29. CTSH – I wouldn’t. Looks more like a bottom to me.

    Out of DIA and QQQQ puts by the way and will rebuy once this run is done. XXX

    TIE making a move. ATI too but would like to see confirmation from AIR or BEAV before I assume it’s something other than metal mania.

    X is flying too. $110s for $3.15 as a mo play with a .50 tstop. XXX

  30. If we don’t break 1530 and close above, this might be the top and the turn.

  31. Morning all, late start after a late night. I do however see that GOOG is feeling the ‘Radar Love’. Sry, just trying to stick with Phils opening theme by playing my adrenaline tune.

  32. AMZN running!!

  33. SHLD trying to crack 180

  34. No more speed, I’m almost there…..reminds me of my yute

  35. JOSB – you should have reminded me, first thing I thought of when MW announced!

    If BA shakes off guidance report than we are mooooing in the markets today.

    There goes AIR and BEAV. Damn, got to be fast these days! I’d buy BEAV but it’s in a bad place between contracts and I don’t trust it yet, would rather pay up for July $40s if it breaks $37.50.

  36. Any inventory wagers? Bueller, Bueller

  37. Z, missed the 5/8 post on WHT. I can only access this site and yours for maybe 30 minutes a day because I work full time. In fact, my boss just called me. Check you later.


  38. As a rule of thumb I am still pulling things that drop 20% of my profits as anyone who can’t go straight up in this market is suspect and I simply have too many positions that have gained too much anyway…

    BIIB flying and that’s another don’t ask just buy kind of stock so I’m picking up the $50s at .60, half out at .80+ XXX

  39. TEX- sold half from buy at $78ish

  40. Phil – out of the AIR, TIE, BEAV or ATI – which do you like and at what entry -

  41. Well my Jn GOOG’s just got tripped. I’m out of it for now, prolly stay out until earnings plays.

  42. Inventory is a crude build at least or they wouldn’t have dumped all those NYMEX barrels. Distillates should be a build too and gas is a wildcard but I know I tend to not take 2 weekend trips in a row so you’d think people didn’t drive too much last week.

    Jazz – we are working with Apple on a cranial implant that will stream our chat directly into the optical centers of your brain, it will be called the IPhil – look for it soon!

  43. I think the shorts are setting gasoline up for a fall. RBOB just crossed the 20 day and I’m told that’s bearish along with bearish looking sto and rsi.

  44. AIR July $35s for .95 selling the June $35s for between .60 and .90. XXX

  45. The IPhil … will that cost extra? LOL

  46. Phil: GE? What’s reasonable profit on June’s since I’m in for a free ride; locked in 1/2 of remaining @ .69 (too soon but from .28 DD) just to control greed.

  47. TIE July $40s at $1.40 if they pass a test at $36.50. XXX

    Time to switch to the VLO 1 min chart…

  48. I know it’s dangerous to try and call a top, but I just sold all calls and I am slowly starting to buy puts here.

  49. Reasonable profit – LOL – well 40% is about the best hedge fund in America but, when in doubt sell half is a good rule more than once. GE is like a battleship though and turns slowly so you just need to watch for a Dow top and sell some there.

    BIIB – I’d feel better if I had any idea why I’m in this trade, half out at .80 XXX

  50. Phil, played BIIB and cashed out at .80 quickly. Thanks!!!

  51. ZZZ,
    You have any thoughts on FTO? The guy on CNBC just mentioned it. I kind of took it off my radar. They are making big $ on D-gas. I made Big $ on this one last year when the others guys VLO TSO SUN did nada.

  52. isn’t anyone going to sell in may and go away for the weekend at least?

  53. Tie – July 40′s at 1.40?? I do not see anything close to that

  54. what happened to ice?

  55. ICE-making another bid?

  56. ICE up 11 in 2 days maybe breathing now!!

  57. VLO just missed my $1.50 bid again on the $75 puts by a nickel – very annoying!

    ICE fell off a cliff and is a rebuy on the $150s if they come down to around $4 (stopped out at $8.50 on the last of them this morning). XXX

  58. VLO cliff diving already.

  59. VLO

    starting to look at 80 calls rather than 75 puts. What are you reading there?

  60. BIIB all out if it can’t hold $47.85

  61. MM new ATH earnings tomorrow morning…..buying aluminum cans from homeless people..and copper from people who have stripped it out of vacant homes…..gotta LOVE that business!!

  62. 91.1% bye bye gasoline

  63. SU $85 puts added at $1.15 XXX

  64. Taking VLO 80′s for a buck

  65. gas up 1.5. lol.

  66. Huge builds +2M crude, +1.5 gas, +500K distillates with refinery utilization at 91.1 (BTE).

    SU in denial. COP clueless so I’m adding $75 puts at .92 XXX (all oil plays very risky of course).

  67. TIE that was a target price as I think they’ll pull back, if not I wave bye bye to the train that left the station.

  68. MRO puts

  69. Phil,
    SU is 88.26 now. 85p can’t be at 1.15 !

  70. Phil.
    sorry. it was a wrong comment on SU

  71. Crude imports were back up, TK ok.

  72. ICE- don’t think we see $4 on the June 150 at least today.
    RS-missed this one was thinking about buying it yesterday.

  73. DIS going straight up, very good sign as they are ultimate travel an liesure stock.

    sGMs flying, my Kerkorian theory is holding up. 8-)

    EBAY making a nice move.

    AAPL $115 is as good as GOOG $500 if they hold it (both might happen this week).

  74. Contrary to the popular message, they managed to stick a little more oil into the SPR again.

  75. Z – what about NE? Phil – thanks on the target and the train – I get it.

  76. SPR – whatever the President can do to help his constituents…

  77. OIH Flying…wow

  78. NE – it’s up. I added yesterday – I think OIH runs to 175 very soon now. HAL is fun too.

  79. taking opening position in WHT at $3.17.

  80. OPtrader:

    My gut agrees with you, but not moving into puts until market internals

  81. RIG- cranking
    JWN- it’s ALIVE!
    WFR- what a tease!
    VLO TSO turning around

  82. Drillers making huge comeback.

    DNDN holding $6.90.

    MGM may be breaking up here ($80.50)

    If this is a head fake in oil, it’s a hell of a big one! Covering with CVX $85s at .80 XXX

  83. phil
    what’s your kerkorian theory? i’ve got GM sept 30 puts, not liking this.

  84. JPL – if you want to see what I’m in at present (which is how I feel about it since I’m a disciple of the would you buy it today, no that don’t own it today- unless your waiting on news the timing of which is in question like PQ) go to my new and improved positions and performance page. I’ve updated the CALLs and I only have one unhappy little worthless put right now (SU).

  85. thanks zzzz, I will go check out the new digs…

  86. windy, on GM just dump’em after the next run up to 32.50

  87. OIH, great call by Happy, I’m stopped out and hoping to get back in but this is some nasty buying..

    WFR – S&P addition not the big deal, actual date of entry causes some buying but, most important,

    Check out this PR campaign by CNBC “Don’t get mad, get rich – Buy Energy!” This is just sick!

  88. Albo, this is probably the good move. I am buying only a small amount of puts, and in stocks that have already turned. But I took ALL profits in calls this morning. This has been one hell of a ride and I won’t be too greedy :) I have seen this happen too many times, especially when retail gets excited like this and thinks you can make money so easily. Maybe I am too early but it does not matter, money is in the bank.

  89. Kerkorian theory – just a joke from yesterday that he bought GM and MGM so we should just grab anything with “GM” in the ticker and wait for the senile old coot to make an offer. Oddly enough all my suggestions are doing well…

    Speaking of which, there goes GME again.

    CCJ just shot through the roof.

  90. CNBC has turned into a personality show. Anybody remember Dan Dorfman in the 1990s. He got into trouble for front running trades on the names of stocks he’d pimp on his show. Now that’s all CNBC does. Amazing!

  91. WFR sinking like a lead zeppelin now

  92. CVX sinking and SU rising??

  93. Phil

    BIIB flying, great call man!!! Should I get out half now?


  94. great call on BIIB Phil, I didn’t buy cuz I didn’t know what I was buying. lol
    it doesn’t matter though!

  95. Phil – BA guides merely inline to slighty down this morning. Any chance this is an early look into a slowdown in defense? Lockheed got whacked a day or so back. LMT, RTN, BA come to mind as possible puts .

  96. Optrader – I agree but will rely on trailing stops and never letting the market close without DIA puts within $1 of the strike.

    Still buying more oil puts at the week’s lows, this is what I wanted, a run-up into the weekend – crazy churning at the top is not necessarily good for them (kind of like the way a bubble starts to swirl just before it pops).

    DCX at ATH

    POTheads rejoice!

    BIIB – can I have my 1/2 back?? Half out again at $1.50 – wow! XXX

  97. CCJ what a move..this IS metal day

    UWN up another 8%

  98. CCJ- breaking out!
    NE- half out on yesterday’s buy. .7 gain. Thanks ZZZZZZ!

  99. Is SUN also rising?

    (have to get at least one obscure literary reference in a day)

    BIIB – there are certain stocks that I watch that COULD have news any time so when I see something happen I figure it’s worth a gamble. We’ve had a real run of luck on these but we will blow a few too…

    I love it. CCJ is up on Iranian demand since they are going ahead and enriching which is causing the rest of the energy patch to go up while the Pumper in Chief orders exercises in the Gulf.

    Bye bye BIIB out at $1.30 might rebuy later. XXX

  100. There’s a headline that major powers will demand that Iran cease uranium enrichment, rejecting the El Baradei compromise. It was out about twenty minutes ago on my feed. Though I’m not sure ships in the straight are bullish for oil, being as our ships will keep the supply lines open. The crude crims are rolling like pigs in *#&% today though -ships headed to Iran, escalated tensions over uranium enrichment, threatened veto of a gas price gouging bill…
    The TLT is perched on a level, if it breaks down soon then that should cause ripples. Rising rates, stronger dollar, pressure on commodities, etc.

  101. OIH back in July $160 put at $3.05 XXX

  102. FCX

  103. Libertarianwhackjob:

    What a great moniker !

  104. Just don’t get the feeling on SU so exited quickly for a mere trim.

  105. OIH
    Thanks, Phil!

  106. If oil is up for real why is ADM going down? PEIX is moving though.

    GLW breaking out!

    Possible last chance at TIE.

    Damn, now CNBC is talking about will high gas taxes curb demand – are they just responding to my posts now?

    Watch the Homeys, if they fall off then everything the rally was based on is BS.

  107. BIIB- great trade Phil.
    ISRG- up big!
    FCX- all time high! Hope PCU follows

  108. Not a Dow rejection unless we fail 13,570 (have to expect some consolidation ahead of 13,600).

  109. Volume on those BIIB calls is amazing! Phil do you think something is up? I bought 100 at .7, sold 20 at 1.35 and the rest at 1.2 thanks to you.


  110. Phil:
    What month COP puts did you buy? I bought the june 75s and am chewing my fingernails off now.


  111. USU nuclear explosion higher! Long term hold of mine fighting the urge to sell think I’ll step outside and smoke a cancer stick…….

  112. ISRG – holy cow! How can you short anything in this market, it’s nuts – I feel like I’m in China!

    Check out DCX, what a relief it is NOT to own an American car company.

    Spectactular miner recovery in general. I’m grabbing my old favorite MRB, who are on the move at $4.74 with a stop at $4.50. XXX

  113. ??????????

  114. COP – read monday night’s comments on scaling into a position! I bought 10 at .92, another 10 at .80 and will buy 20 more at .60 which is about quarter position for me and as much as I would ever buy in one day. If I trigger the .60s then I have 40 at .73 when the put is at .60 and I would take half off the table at .75. The faster this all happens the more likely I get a snap back and, if I give up the position at .30 then I’ve lost 1/2 of 1/4 of a full position, which is generally 2% of my STP portfolio, nothing to “chew my fingers over.”

    This is why I’m doing the $10KP again though, it’s better to differentiate moves that are not appropriate for smaller account holders.

    BTU flying again – ZZZ what’s your take on nat gas tomorrow?

    BOOM picking up steam. That confirms ATI and TIE move. TIE very slow out of the gate, very likely because a lot of people bought calls…

  115. HAL toying with $37. Still cheapest in group. Probably adds a buck if OIH can eake out 180.

    NE – up 2% but 7th on the day among the OIH 15.

    TK should be rocking and rolling here. holding but not adding. may add to a different name there. ideas on more liquid traders amongst the tankers welcome.

    CHK looking like a breakout. EOG breaking out as I type.

  116. LOL – CNBC is trying to say that our .45 gasoline tax does not encourage wasting gas (europe is $4, Asia is $3).

    BIIB – as our friend Towelie likes to say “I have no idea what’s going on.” The $55s are a fun bet at .50 if you don’t want to miss anything (I got a few) but only so I don’t feel like an idiot if they get bought in the morning or cure something.

    LOL – floor trader on CNBC said they are holding back supplies and driving prices up and they cut the interview immediately – Classic!

  117. metals
    coming back with a vengence!

    what are you trying to say? what “ceramics”?

  118. Happy,

    Did I get my translation wrong. I thought I typed “we are not in china?” I guess my tpying may have been off.

  119. DDay – I couldn’t agree more!

    DIA – finger on the trigger of $136s at $1.50 – bouncing right off my target here…

  120. dday,
    didn’t show up correctly for me. It says, “We’re not in ‘ceramics’!” =) Sometimes these Chinese characters can show up strangely, though.

  121. AMTD

    I’ve held AMTD shares for exactly 366 days, expecting to book a long-term loss against some long-term GOOG gains. Now it’s a long-term gain of 12%. Can I dump it now or is there anything going for it?

  122. Happy

    LOL, may have been slight of hand on my part. Glad I didn’t send that do a friend over there he would’ve laughed at me for the next week.

  123. BIIB

    Since I missed out I took some of Phils fun plays. 55′s for .45.

  124. MRO-ATH
    CHK- bought some yesterday, adding today on ZZZZ comments
    VARI- looking sweet
    RL- shouldn’t have bragged that I was finally in the money.
    20k- any plays for this portf? They must be dying while waiting LOL

  125. No SOX today. Transports ignoring oil but using that as my primary canary.

  126. BIIB i got filled at .45 also, let’s see how much “fun” this play turns out

  127. TOPT – wow. Talk about taking my eyes off the ball. and I though TK had done well. This thing’s a rumored takout and probably done for now but if crude rallies (and I think it might) they may take it to $7. HUGE interest in the June and September $5 calls.

    Nat gas thoughts tomorrow or any other day. I like it. Its clean burning, doesn’t usually smell or occlude the sun. Its not sticky. The wellheads can be disguised as large cacti. What’s not to like?

  128. ATI
    going up!

    going for 80 today!?

  129. LOL – we’re still a few years away from those Star Trek universal translators.

    AMTD – brokers may be in play. Sell calls if you’re bored – you can pick up $2.10 for the Jul $17.50s and if you get called away (probably) you pick up $19.60 rather than $19.04, not a bad 50 day return! If the stock stays flat you can roll them too.

    MCO flying after a sell-off yesterday, FDX in mad recovery. AXP still a bargain.

    $10KP, if we hold this we will pick up some stragglers tomorrow but I’m not too enthusiastic into the weekend.

    GENZ on the move.

  130. Phil, see if Apple will throw in some brain cells into the IPhil stream that I lost following multiple bouts with booze. It’s a genetic thing though; have a friend with total recall that hasn’t drawn a sober breath in the 35 years I have known him.


  131. Bill Big D – which month and strike do you like for CHK? Thanks

    Phil – do you still like OXPS??

  132. what company has the contract for those translators, might be a good play?

  133. LNG looks like it’s had it. The July $35 puts for $1.25 seem reaonable…

    Beware TIE and AIR as BEAV just crashed. XXX

    GMT going up – Kerkorian’s on a rampage!

  134. Re Nat Gas:

    Over / Under Gas Watch: 90 Bcf. Below bullish. Above sort of maybe slightly bearish. Sorry for the wishy washy but with the still large short overhang here and approaching hurricane season, and elevated and increasing prices for competing fuels it’s hard to get too bearish unless the number is shockingly large. I wouldn’t expect a substantial downside response unless the injection tops 105 Bcf this week. Plus it should hold up well if oil does.

    I’ll update when I see consensus.

  135. AAPL/RIMM – Pretty bearish article on AAPL & bullish for RIMM. See

  136. Joseph
    All the stocks you mention are toppy, Dems not going to test Bush on pullout and risk a veto….defence spending must and will remain high.

  137. phil, do u think SHLD will have any run into the earnings on the 31st?

  138. Hey Phil,

    Who do we email about subscription issues? PayPal screwed something up with the payment and then I couldn’t log into the site- so I subscribed again. Not sure where I stand! Thanks.

  139. OXPS

    Shareholder meeting tomorrow at 11 et. Could make the price run quite a bit one way or another.

  140. Total Recall – yeah, I love that film..

    OXPS – I love them long time but I sold the $25s (albeit a little early).

    Translators likely to come from IBM, HPQ, APPL, or SNE with IBM making the most serious investments. These will be big ticket items as they require quad processors (today’s tech), high quality audio, tons of ram and major software but you think of how many $100K people they replace at the UN alone and you get the idea…

    So much for my CVX covers – waste of money but gave me courage loading up on the puts!

  141. GES- 1/3 out
    RL-bought more today!
    ATI-scaled in 114, 113, and want $116 to pull it all off. Hey it works LOL

  142. AAPL frozen here, good time to roll my Oct $100 puts to $105 puts for $1.40 and another 1/2 for good measure XXX

  143. LVLT – Phil, any thoughts? I knew Cramer was pumped this thing. ..Seems to have a little momentum now, but risk/reward I guess isn’t that great. . . Couldn’t stay above 6 very long. .

  144. AGIX – any plays here? this thing could got up easily with a short squeeze.

  145. I bought the Jun BRCM 30 puts. BRCM broke down below two yr support on 5/15 and below 200 dma on 5/18, that is when I bought at .85. Now down to .45. Any TA chartists think this is a good bet to DD? Or cut and run?

  146. Another small-cap stock, HSOA. . anybody ever play this one? latest volume and price action looks pretty bullish. . this is a one of a kind company, always a big player if we have a busy hurricane season.

  147. Phil, Are you buying DIA 136 puts as hedge here ?

  148. Treasuries weakening further.

  149. Matrix,

    HSOA – Cramer’s ‘Stocks under $10′ subscription service has been pretty bullish on it – especially last 2 weeks and rates it as their category #1 pick.

  150. CNBC says refinery outages have resulted in gasoline shortages which
    have inflated prices. Where are the shortages? Has anyone seen any
    lines at gas stations like we had the last time there were shortages?

  151. phil,

    I asked you earlier about LMT and you said that you may like it at a pull back. Do like it here ?


  152. Happy/BillBigD, why are the options so pricey with ATI? Is there some intrinsic value that I am not seeing? Thanks

  153. SWN just keeps hitting new highs daily. May remaining June $45 Calls go before #s tomorrow.

  154. Same kind of question as BRCM, bought Jun/Jul SBUX 27.50 puts also Oct 30 puts. On 5/14 SBUX appeared to break below a double bottom at 28.79 from 8/3/06 and 3/12/07. Now back just abouve that line at 29.21. Any chartists think I got the TA wrong and should bail or think I got it right and should DD or just hold for now. I may have been influenced by the fact that I hate this company and boycott them for price gouging on coffee, they are more evil the the refiners.

  155. Subscription – is Jared, no big deal we’ll figure out a refund or somethng if you are double billed.

  156. Boy, quite the reversal and headfake on BEAV . .

  157. Phil,

    GRMN – 9% runup in 4 days. Time for Jun 60.0 puts or wait a bit. This high beats the 59.37 high set on May 1.


  158. LVLT, AGIX… sorry but we need a moratoriam on things we’re not playing until after hours unless somethign pressing is going on, I don’t know about you guys but I’ve been fixated on my DIA chart at $135, but it held up nicely and looks like it’s turning up. Not buying puts unless we break it but will at the end of the day no matter what.

    Refineries – more to the point, how does lower gas production cause an increase in crude prices? Don’t they make gas out of crude?

    LMT – I don’t like defense long-term, the war is over on Jan 10th 2009 no matter what Bush tries to do for the next 18 months and the closer we get to that date the lower the p/e of defense contractors will go. TXT was my favorite defense stock but they burned me last Q and we’re not speaking right now.

    BRCM got a clear message to settle with QCOM yesterday and I expect something next month.

    SBUX – just keep selling them to me thank you. There is nothing evil about an optional luxury item and the $4cup of coffee gives consumers much more pleasure than the $4 gallon of gas. Also, people in NY don’t have cars so they can afford to buy 20 cups a week for less than you pay in gas…

    MCO – still going up.

    ONXX getting hit again. BIIB may hold $48? GSK not having fun but DNDN still has hope.

  159. ZZZ,
    Here is the list of the companies in Austin if you don’t have? Pretty nice list!
    Preliminary List of Presenting Companies*

    Oil Field Services
    Baker Hughes
    Basic Energy Services
    BJ Services
    Complete Production Services
    Cooper Cameron
    Dresser Rand
    FMC Technologies
    Grant Prideco
    Helix Energy Services
    Hercules Offshore
    Nabors Industries
    Noble Corp
    Rowan Companies
    Smith International
    W-H Energy Services
    Exploration and Production
    Anadarko Petroleum
    Apache Corporation
    Canadian Natural Resources
    Chesapeake Energy
    Cimarex Energy
    Devon Energy
    EOG Resources
    Forest Oil
    Murphy Oil
    Newfield Exploration
    Noble Energy
    Pioneer Natural Resources
    Pogo Producing
    Southwestern Energy
    Ultra Petroleum
    Western Oil Sands
    XTO Energy
    Integrated Oils & Refiners:
    Amerada Hess
    Valero Energy Corporation
    *List is subject to change

    Subscription- I got two confirms but didn’t think I got doubled billed.
    JBL- I bought July 35′s

  160. YRCW – ok, now I’m going to have to kick myself for being impatient. I never would have dumped those July $45s in a market where everything else wasn’t flying… Taking $40s at $1.05 mindful of the 200 dma at $40.25 XXX

  161. So we’ve got gasoline off, again, and crude up to flat. And the refiners are either soaring – like MRO or barely scratched like TSO/VLO. I’m buying more and more into the theory that post holiday comes the big sell down in RBOB, a sell off the refiners won’t be able to ignore.

  162. Thanks BBD, it’s the players club list of energy.

  163. Now CNBC is going to explain how lack of competion in Big Oil is not contributing to higher prices – I’d love to know who pulls the strings on this PR machine…

    XLE $68 puts for $1.20 with a .20 tstop XXX

  164. Reminder, my oil puts are mainly a hedge on a down market to offset a massively bullish portfolio.

    AMZN – another ATH

    KNOT diving. Adding Oct $20s at $1.85 XXX

  165. Hi Phil,

    I’m thinking of GG and NEM Jan calls for LTP, any advice?


  166. Chomping at the bit to short AMZN ! But not quite yet.

  167. Chomping at the bit to short AMZN ! But not quite yet.

  168. Albo, I am short AMZN, and it hurts!

  169. AIG says what hurricane season? ALL also missed the weather forecast.

    MEE celebrating the continued cover-up:

    NEW YORK (AP) — Massey Energy Co. shareholders rejected a proposal Tuesday that would have asked the Richmond, Va.-based coal company to explain its response to mounting pressure for limits on carbon dioxide emissions.

    Based on a preliminary tally of the vote, shareholders also defeated a resolution that would have asked for more disclosure of the corporate political contributions, Chief Executive Don Blankenship said during the company’s annual meeting in New York.

    Big short squeeze on these guys from EPA lawsuit that was followed by S&P saying it won’t affect their credit ratings and I am chomping at the bit to short these guys again!

  170. Bought some AMZN July puts. I don’t like going against the trend, but this thing was at $44 a month ago. I have plenty of time to wait for a pullback. Conference tomorrow.

  171. AMZN maybe shorting at 75. . wouldn’t touch it until then.

  172. CNBC – Cartel of Notorious Bulls on Crude

  173. Phil, what’s the thinking behind the KNOT play?

  174. GG nice and cheap today, I gave up on them yesterday though as they were my weakest gold performer and I did a DD on AUY 09 $15s instead but gold is still shakey and the miners are nervous so these are also just disaster protection for me.

    VLO Rule downturn, first one in ages. VLO, CVX, XOM, OIH, XLE, SU, SLB – could signal a nice move down very fast!!! XXX on all puts discussed earlier.

  175. AMZN & BWLD hard to short there just movin on up.

  176. FCX
    taking no prisoners today!

  177. ICE joining the rally

  178. AMZN – truly is amazing. I took out my 67.5 caller; couldn’t stand the pain, but deliberating whether to sell 72.5s as a way to make back some of it. But then again, resistance may be futile.
    AAPL – at what point, would it make sense to roll the 110 caller to 115? Maybe when I can sell it for $3.8 or better (which means about $3.5 premium vs. ~$1 for the 110)?

  179. 73 coming soon on AMZN. . I like Phil’s saying of having a rocket go up your rear-end by shorting this thing. .Ouch .

  180. maybe a blow-off top coming with AMZN??

  181. AMZN – something very deep is going on there, I would find something else to short (although shorting anything is like tying a rope around your neck). On momentum is another story because this thing weighs a ton!

    VLO – here’s a chart, watch VLO to drop below $74.50 to signal a real downturn but they all may hold up into nat gas inventories but this is a post weekend play that may end in tears:;range=3m;compare=cvx+xom+oih+xle+slb+su;indicator=volumema+macd+rsi;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;logscale=off;source=undefined

    Rates are kicking up again as BOE minutes showed they wanted a bigger hike.


    ISRG great call earlier!

    GOOG testing $485

  182. GRRF up 20% last 3 days on heavy volume wha’s up? (disclosure i am long the stock and happy!)

  183. ICE
    I wouldn’t chase. It needs to breath.

  184. Phil:

    My guess on AMZN is that shorts get stopped out, then re-enter at higher levels.
    Also margin calls for short sellers also bring in big buying. It should be a great short
    at some point. Unless they discovered oil under one of their warehouses ! !

  185. From an EIA post on inventory report today. Proof that our government just doesn’t get it:

    Thus, while the setting of record prices may be immaterial for many drivers, prices are high and are expected to remain high throughout the entire summer, they are not yet at levels which imply the same impact on U.S. households or the economy in general as the level seen in March 1981. Arguing over whether a particular record has been set does not change that fact.

    So $3+ gasoline is now “immaterial”. I guess if you start repeating that often enough it will become truth.

    They did report that all regions reported higher prices for the past week save the West Coast where prices are beginning to slacken. Again, look out TSO. VLO and SUN saw their regions for the most part continue strengthen in terms of cracks.

    By the way, crude oil stocks poked out the top of the band again which is already at the seasonal high of the year. In other words, we’re awash with crude. But, that doesn’t mean crude will tumble given the lower (at least everyone says so OEDC inventories) and demand will continue to pick up as the refiners slowly slowly slowly head towards the 95% utilization level they will reach this summer. This does however imply that gasoline prices will be falling which hurts cracks and again the refiners should see lower profit (still very high though) going forward. Since the stocks traded in lock step with cracks and retail gasoline move, you’d expect them to soften a bit here.

  186. Phil, you called for the BWLD July 80′s puts yesterday, I missed that call – but what are your feelings on it today?

  187. Considering puts on NVDA. What do you guys think?

  188. KNOT – June brides. Girls are communal animals so the married ones turn the new ones on to the site – perfect viral marking and very attractive as a branding take-out as you lock virtually every woman in America’s attention for about 3 months at a very important period in her life.

    AMZN – more like that bull goring the matador picture from the other day!


    AAPL Jan-08 $100.00 Call 04/19/07 5 $8.20
    AAPL Jun-07 $110.00 Call 05/17/07 -20 $3.55
    AAPL Oct-07 $115.00 Call 05/17/07 20 $7.40
    AAPL Oct-07 $105.00 Put 04/25/07 22 $5.75
    AAPL Jan-09 $120.00 Call 05/10/07 10 $16.10

    I’m pretty happy with the mix but the $110 caller is obviously painful. If they don’t break $115 I expect a pullback so I’ll be stopping out of the Oct Calls and the Jan ’08 calls and rolling the caller then (after the drop). If it keeps going up I will bracket up the Jan ’08s and roll the caller into 2x $120 or $115s.

  189. TLT move becoming noticeable now, we’ll see where it goes

  190. NBR – lots of interest in Sep $35 puts.

  191. CHK – If bearish on Oil/RBOB/Refiners for next week, can CHK maintain the $35s?

    I know hurricane season starts June 1 and zMan is quite bullish on CHK – but how about buying $32.50 Jun Put for $0.05 as just in case NGAS backs off to low $7s…

  192. GRRG – Kerkorian thoght the 2 Rs together looked like an M…

    AMZN – someone posted an excellent post on all the cool thing AMZN can outsource to other retailers, that’s almost as good as oil.

    BWLD – gone on 20% rule and not interested in getting burned twice.

    NVDA – I thought they were getting bought by someone?

    LEND going nuts.

  193. lend taking off

  194. TK – finally moving higher as the crude imports numbers rebounded.

    Re CHK – Msquare that’s not a bad idea.

    I’m more bullish nat gas but I think oil holds up Ok while gasoline falls towards the mid $2.teens. CHK is very gassy and very hedged and undervalued to the group. With that said, we’re talking options and if you think oil is going much lower then obviously you don’t want to be in CHK or any other E&P. Even though they don’t sell much of the stuff. Your $0.05 bet may work out as a very nice hedge and a double or triple if gas goes back to $7.50.

  195. Nadaq 2,599!!!! Playing the QQQQ $48 puts for $1 with a .20 Tstop as protection. XXX

    JSDA making a huge comeback. FIZ jumping too. LOL, silly markets…

    GLW testing $25 again. Must consider selling $25s if they don’t break by EOD unless market has a good finish. XXX

    CHK – I have $35 puts at .68, now .45, will DD at .40 better to buy one of these than 8 $32.50 puts other than as a pre-roll.

  196. But I thought Eric B said this was a dip buying opportunity in gasoline. What happened to “don’t get mad, get rich trading energy”? Oh he meant the opportunity was to short gasoline on the initial head fake. I must have mis heard him. crook.

  197. Phil – re CHK – I guess it would have to fall a long way to wake up those $32.50 June puts, eh? I really don’t see it getting back close to that strike.

  198. Phil – What is your opinion on NEM here with the strong metals? Thanks

  199. lend 74% short!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  200. nfi 64% short

  201. woohoo CLR

  202. SWC up 6% today don’t own that one wish i did

  203. phil, z, who’s hurt the most by price gouging legislation? cnbc talking it down.

  204. dndn quietly climbed back over 7

  205. CHK – Didn’t realize $35 Puts were that cheap. Yes, those much better than the $32.50s. Like zmann says (nice expression), the $35s more likely to ‘wake up run’

  206. greedpeace: independent refiners with marketing arms like TSO, VLO, MUR. CNBC is right though, unless it’s local, its only a veto away from failure.

    I have seen a couple of AGs trying to make a name for themselves but I doubt it’ll have much of an impact unless it becomes very widespread.

  207. will be interesting to see the close on AMZN. . this could be the beginning a reversal. .

  208. JSDA- signed deal with Seattle Seahawks to provide soda at games.
    CTSH- not a bad little play
    RIG-looking to get out on 1/2 from yesterday’s buy’s
    All have a good rest of the day!!! Off to the Local Sports Bar to watch the Soccer League Championship then airport.

  209. And the sell orders begin….

  210. phil,
    X – keeping these calls still?

  211. BBD – have a good one. Livepool v Milan in Athens. What a great dirty little city that is!

  212. Just got back from Datty (remind me to kick myself in the @ss) :evil:

  213. Phil/ Z man- I am confused – you are suggesting to add July 35′s puts to my July 35′s CHK calls??? Thanks

  214. June 120 MROs puts taken @ $4. Very small, very high risk but a nice hedge to all my other longs and the stock moves like a banshee.

  215. This won’t help relations with the villagers:

    Nigerian diplomat nabbed trying to smuggle $2.3 million out of the country.

  216. would love to see KNOT get taken out by MDP, actually that would make a great rumor!!

  217. Holy Cow! What happened, I went out for 30 mins and you guys broke the market!

    Triggered DIA puts when it crossed and stops triggering all over the place.

  218. CHK – JPL I’m not doing that but it was suggested as a way to be safe through tomorrow’s gas numbers.

  219. That Nigerian diplomat must have been the guy sending all those emails saying you had inherited big money from an unknown relative. Just give me your bank acct number and I will wire! :wink:

  220. from cramer

    If you believe that insider trading is back YOU MUST GO BUY SOME FITB. That’s right, Fifth Third, because the options are going NUTS and they are forecasting imminent takeover.

  221. AMZN- Beautiful drop. Taking 1/3 out.

  222. Greenspan talking about a China correction….bberg 14.00

  223. Picth78 i see story where they are buying a bank Crown bank .

  224. here comes the pump. TSO actually looking lower but did you know MRO has run run 17% or 17 bucks this month? It’s fwd valuation is squarely between TSO on the high end and VLO on the low. While MRO has had some big deepwater success off Angola this month it has gotten upgraded for it and a mention in baron’s online today. They’ve had a good run. I think it’s probably a bit tired now falling into the “too far too fast” category.

  225. ISRG valiant attempt to break out of two year high looks like it is going to fail. At what point do we look to buy puts?


  226. Eric Bolling makes Henry Blodget look like Honest Abe!

    NEM – will do whatever gold does. They are not my favorite producer, ABX is but they get no respect which makes them a great LTP stock.

    LEND meets $15, doesn’t like it…

    PBR dropping hard and fast, PTR is reliable follower with the $125s at $1.30 XXX but a very dangerous one!

    Price gouging comes from the refiners. Z and I were supposed to do an article weeks ago following this thread but we got too busy, which is a shame because we would have looked like market mavens.

    WYNN cracking.

    X – no way, stopped out. Please tell me everyone understands what a tstop is!

    CHK – I’m not sure what I said but I know I never said to take a CHK call!

    Nigerian guy – you mean he actually had the money to wire me??? Seriously though, I want that guy to handle my next marketing campaign – everyone in America gets those…

    FITB is a legitimate takeover target so the July $45s are good for a gamble at .72 but realize that this is a game that lends itself to the DD, roll, half out, DD, roll style that could go on for months. XXX

  227. CNBC & Google – going bonkers on a quote from Eric Schmidt, CEO from Google

  228. LOL, that Greenspan, what a card! He murdered the FXI…

    Ka-Ching on TSO June $115s on this run, going half out at $3.50 but very mindful of a pullback and will sell the $120s for $6 as a mo play for the bounce. XXX

  229. TSO – .25 tstop on 1/2 the $115s and then a .40 sell stop on the $120s

  230. lend will meet 15 again on the way to 20 if all those shorts have a real reason to cover

  231. MRO may supercede TSO as the most volatile refiner (with other crap attached) you’ve ever seen. a traders dream.

  232. BillBigD,

    CTSH – What is your play? Are you assuming a further fall to low $70s in next few days and a bounce later?

  233. Greenspan, did y’all hear that cheer?…. shorts rejoicing… short lived as it may be

  234. Anyone know what is pushing NBIX up? Up almost 2.5% earlier

  235. TSO – am I good or what?

    GE not buying the drop, not GOOG, not SHLD.. may not last long so don’t get too excited about puts.

    MSFT actually moving now so I’ll take the July $32.50s for .31. XXX

  236. Added DIA July 136 puts. Closed out RIMM puts – I’ll try again tomorrow. Stopped out of X calls

  237. Darn, sold those TSO 120 puts too early; won’t get much opportunity on the bounce. And definitely took out the AMZN caller too early. Live and learn.
    AAPL – Phil, I see you no longer have your 110 putter either. When are you targeting to re-sell? When price is close to or below $110 (or $2.5 or better)?

  238. China B share last night down 5%. All headline writers missed it as it is the foreign ownership shares and doesn’t make nice headlines….

  239. 2 things by which i am annoyed. one is greenspan. the other is erin whatsherface.

  240. MSFT is a cool stock, all morning it was down like 10 cents when the QQQQs were up big. And now when the QQQQs panick MSFT goes positive, showing its strength.

  241. INFY and CTSH finding buyers here.

    DIA puts are insurance. After what Greenspan said (long after Asia closed) I don’t want to risk too much overnigh that isn’t covered. XXX

    Check out TGT and COST, massive sentiment change on retail…

    CBS joins DIS on the upside for the day, TWX makes sense with July $22.50s at .35 – 20 for the $10KP!

  242. ailing greedspank

  243. Erin Brockavitch?

  244. CTSH – I opened an 80/85 bull call spread on Monday. Almost 1700 June 80 calls traded today. I think this is a buying opportunity.

  245. Phil, you beat me with MSFT :-)

  246. Scalped the AMAZ Jun 72.5 puts for $1.

  247. AMZN

  248. Phil, TSO is going down on considerable volume, I am naked on my TSO Jan 115 puts (up > 25%). June 115 puts not moving much. Do you recommend to wait or short June 115 now?

  249. Pricing gouging bill passes the house but it’s to vague to be enforcible.

  250. P – Nice calls on the TSO putters today!

  251. i think this might be the first of many nails in the coffin for AMZN> .

  252. LEND and NFI charts are very bullish

  253. more on the price gouging bill. It doesn’t even come under consideration unless the president declares an “energy state of emergency”. John Stewart eat your heart.

  254. goog must have been seeing undesired upward pressure. cncb is in hyperbole ‘666 evil beast’ mode and is announcing that goog pres schmidt is now gathering additional personal information on everyone on the face of the earth, ‘its sinister’ she says!. ‘have they gone too far?’, she asks. ‘What if I don’t want people to know that I’m interested in porn’, she says.

  255. they are hammering the bids on nyx. huge blocks i’m assuming are short. someone against atticus?

  256. AAPL – very strong, not really thinking it goes down, just that it has trouble at $115 but I’m setting up to be covered to neutral going into the weekend.

    China B – good catch Dom, where are you pulling that because I missed it too.

    TSO – I’m playing for a bounce into tomorrow’s gas inventories as hope springs eternal for idiots who pay $120 for this stock.

    Price gouging – vague is good, it lets you haul everyone into court who looks at you funny and ask a lot of questions.

  257. Guaranteed source of future pipeline troubles for BP. They’re trying to sell Palestinian gas to Israel. That better be the most heavily defended pipeline in history.

  258. INFY – Not done going down as yet. Going below $49.70 today was important. I am still holding half my (naked) shorts, but will start looking to buy long calls soon.

    I expect Indian markets to go 1-3% down later tonight and it will drag INFY down in India and here too tomorrow. The Indian Index (Nifty) was at ATH 2 days ago and will pull back some – especially if US goes red today and more so if China listens to Greenspan.

    CTSH – Don’t have as good a feeling but it generally follows INFY, so I’ll wait and see.

  259. adding XHB puts ahead of new home sales data tomorrow will see how it plays out XHB has run from 34 to 36 last couple days hopefully long in the tooth .

  260. Energy State of Emergency begins Jan 6th 2009. They’re going to trick Bush into signing it because he’ll think he’s never going to decalre it and Jeb won’t declare it and the retarded Bush brother (oh wait, that’s back to George) won’t declare it when he’s President…

    I knew that girl was into porn!

    CNBC just reminded me MA is another potential short.

    $10KP TWX is a DD at .20 if there tomorrow, maybe .25 but certainly not a position to panic out of. XXX

  261. Phil, check china B share here, it’s down last 2 days.

  262. INFY – Jun $50 at $1.75 & July $50 Put at $2.65 with INFY at $49.50 – doesn’t that indicate more downside to come?

  263. CREE what in God’s name just happened?????????

  264. TWX – Phil, You are grabbing 20 contracts @ .35 but that’s the current bid, ask at .40. Does this mean you put in a limit order @ .35 and will either fill or not fill? I want to grab these, but I’m not excited about paying .40 for them.

  265. VLO and TSO could close at low of the day :-)

  266. but the damn TSO june puts not moving

  267. cree – damn sold it at 0.15 20% loss ! aaaghh

  268. CREE just had an advisor email emergency alert (buy under 26)

  269. Selling Palestinian gas to Israel – There’s a Mexican restaurant in Haifa that does that!

    Thanks Mei.

    INFY – real possibility of Asian melt-down tomorrow but if there isn’t one we could go bonkers over here (in a Ding-dong Greenspan’s just a senile old fart kind of way).

    MA – can CNBC have worse timing with their pump reports? $135 puts are $2.30 XXX

  270. GS – hmmm, down ~$1.9 when none of the other are (MER, MS, LEH, BSC all up).

  271. CNBC giving the bears some air time. The higher this market goes the more confident the bears become and the better the odds become that they will be correct in their assumptions… But boy isn’t it wonderful to watch them squirm….great timing as we are going into a holiday weekend.

  272. TWX – .35 or forget it. They have been going off at that price, never offer the ask unless you desperately want something.

    TSO – selling 1/2 $120 puts into the close regardless.

  273. TWX – Did anyone get them at 0.35?

  274. China B, would love to take credit for that, however it was pointed out to me also ! I have never followed it. Will be watching it tonight though.

  275. AMZN unchanged. Was up 6% earlier. YES !

  276. Phil,

    “TWX makes sense with July $22.50s at .35 – 20 for the $10KP”. Does this mean we made our fisrt purchase for the 10KP? If yes, Does 20 mean, 20 contracts of TWX?

    Being new, just trying to clear my doubts.


  277. Too many people calling for a high in gasoline?
    Hope they’re right, but mavens seem to have
    changed their tunes.

  278. “Clearly unsustainable… dramatic contraction..” wow, what ever happened th the guy who couldn’t tell you if it was sunny outside without a study group having to interpret what he said?

    Greenspan does nothing by accident. As I said earlier in the week, THEY wanted to post an ATH on the S&P so it would be on the magazines into the weekend and Greenspan just made sure that wouldn’t happen. Ants on a football field is all we are…

  279. I couldn’t agree more. 1996 Irrational Exuberance scared the market for a day or two. This will be interesting to see how we cope. Short interest still incredibly high going into June expiry

  280. INFY / IBN – Not thinking of any meltdown in India – just a routine 1-3% down (breather). Currently INFY at a 7% premium (typically 7-10%) and IBN 5% premium (typically

  281. Does ne1 know when the Fed meets again? Reduction of ST rates by Bernanke seems to be suggested frequently

  282. -repeating comment cut-off.

    INFY / IBN – Not thinking of any meltdown in India – just a routine 1-3% down (breather). Currently INFY at a 7% premium (typically 7-10%) and IBN 5% premium (typically

  283. VJ, not to answer for Phil, but Yes, 20 TWX Jul 22.50 contracts at .35/contract

  284. Prior comment cut-off (due to less-than character in it! – maybe Jared you can correct that?)

    INFY / IBN – Not thinking of any meltdown in India – just a routine 1-3% down (breather). Currently INFY at a 7% premium (typically 7-10%) and IBN 5% premium (typically less than 2%) as compared to their yesterday’s price in India. So, IBN has more downside.

    Those with ability to buy in India (notably funds outside India) routinely buy it locally and sell the ADRs here…The weeks prior to the March Indian 10% correction/breather there was unusually high Put buying in IBN here…

    China cannot go down while their VC is in the US cozying up to Paulson – would ‘loose face’! Next week who knows – maybe Greenspan needs to repeat his speech in Hongkong?

  285. ms^2, no worries with the IBN put volume today….total combined calls and puts were well below average volume, little to no put action noted in any option month

  286. CTSH – correction to my earlier post. I opened a 75/80 bullish spread, not 80/85.

  287. karmcon

    couldn’t understand your comment there, about “CREE just had an advisor email emergency alert (buy under 26)”

    CREE is at $22.

  288. Jordan, alot of the subscriptions you can buy for option, stock, etc advise also have a service where they will email you a recommendation that you should jump on. Some call it a flash alert, others action alert and this one I rec’d calls it an emergency/urgent alert. Says to buy and accumulate CREE up to 26/shr for a target price of 40 (but in 12-18 mos). I try not to always be a lemming and didn’t jump on (maybe tomorrow I will look at the profit potential of a Leap/short call strategy and then dip my toes in the water. You sure could see the stock moving after the email though..

  289. Daveo TWX – I did not get them either , but I saw an order for 20x @0.35 while waiting for my to be filled.
    then 1 for 7 @0.4 – last order somebody got 5 for 0.35

  290. VLO – Phil nailed it good. Real big spike about 3m shares in volume near $74.51 just before close.

    Phil, what point do we roll the $75 Puts down to $72.50?

  291. karmcon, thanks now I understand. Yeah I know these emails move markets, pretty silly but they do. :)

  292. TWX – yes 20 is 20 contracts, I generally intend to commit $1K per position but small ones like this I prefer to enter in halves.

    This is very different than my 20% entries in the regular portfolios because with $1K per position it is commission prohibative way to go. That makes the whole thing very challenging to me as I am used to having a pretty casual attitude about entering too early as I don’t generally commit enough % to care about a 30% pullback other than to decide when/if to buy more.

    Also, the portfolio is far less diversified than my usual set-ups and we can’t take wide spreads as the margins are a factor. I do NOT leave orders open overnight so the unfilled TWX will be a new play tomorrow if it still makes sense.

    CREE – my guess is that thats a very bullish call to buy on the way up but not the way I like to buy things.

  293. CREE = I agree on the “buy-up-to” statements. CREE is in the currently popular LED sector along with CLRK (I had the Jun 22.50′s at 1.10, thought I did great selling at 2.00. 2 days later I see it is at $7.00!!) Oh well pigs get fat, hogs slaughtered, but I would like to take the risk of being a hog once in awhile.

  294. Rayder,

    CTSH – Please help me understand – ’75/80 bullish spread’ is selling $80 call and buying $75 for a net debit (around $2) – that way you gain best if CTS stays between $75-$80…

  295. daveo, stephane

    I got twx filled at 0.35 for 20 by optionxpress.. put a limit at 0.35

  296. 5 for 35 was me! Not filled and I won’t be interested if the market trades down tomorrow.

    VLO – if you were DD like me, then you should have been half out at the EOD, that goes for the morning if you didn’t as you can never trust these things. At $2.40 I made .60 off my basis of $1.80 so selling them reduces my basis to $1.20 which leaves us with a $1.20 profit and a 20% trailing stop currently at $2.15. These are not hard stops though, I put my finger on the button when I see the ask drop to $2.15 but I may give it another dime to confirm a real downturn (or, when in doubt, sell half).

    It’s tricky trading Valero because there’s no Valero Rule to follow but I watch TSO and XOM to confirm a move and am very itchy on the trigger with these. Steps to get here on VLO were as follows:

    5/17 – bought 72.50 puts at $1.90
    5/18 dd at $1.55
    5/21 adj +.85 roll to Jun $75 puts
    5/21 dd at $1.50
    5/22 dd at $1.40
    5/22 1/2 out at $1.75
    5/23 DD at $1.80
    5/23 1/2 out at $2.40

    Note that the $72.50 puts are $1.33, a much less profitable play had I stuck with it. Also note that I am thrilled to make .60 and get out, something I see a lot of people not doing. Despite my long-range plan to hold for the weekend, my plan was also to make a fairly small bet and DD on a run-up into inventory. Once you DD a position remember that you were just wrong and you should be thankful for the opportunity to take 1/2 back off the table even, leaving you with your last count at a lowered basis and ready to ride out another bad turn (all assuming things are generally going according to plan).

    If I have money, I can always buy more, roll a braket or a month or sell calls and puts against my position with the margin. If I have a bloated position that’s out of the money, all I have is a jail cell with a clock ticking down on me and all I can do is pray…

  297. OXPS does seem to be better. I’m trying this $10KP in Etrade, will be interesting to compare performance on tough fills…

  298. msquare,

    CTSH – I bought the June 75 calls for 4.80 and sold the 80 calls for 1.80 for a $3 net debit. (price was higher then) for a $2.0 profit if the stock stays above 80. Today the net debit would be $2ish as you pointed out above for a $3 profit if the stock goes above $80.

    I am bullish because the stochastic indicator is at a bullish inflection point and MACD is near a bullish crossover and the PE is at a 1yr low.

  299. Phil,

    if market is down tomorrow, sell the twx 22.5 which i got filled????????? for 0.35

  300. Phil – Been reading the open page for several months and really like the commentary so I figured it was time to take a peek behind the curtain. Newbie question – several of you comments include “XXX”. Is there somewhere around here I can pick up a decoder ring to know what that means? Thx.

  301. Phil,

    I’m looking at MRVL as a very long term play, as I don’t own AAPL and would like a piece of the iphone action. Given that it’s trading around very long term support at 16, I was considering the Jan ’09 15′s for $4.10. As always, I’m very interested in your take. Thanks!


  302. TWX – no, if you’re in it it’s a valid play, just not worth a new risk in a down market (is that clear or more confusing). TWX is very cheap with huge growth and earnings in July, though at the very end, but the value should hold up a bit. They’ve been pushing up on $21.75 for a while and have a p/e ratio in the low teens. TWX is in a very hot media space and owns magazines (Time, Fortune, Sports Il.), AOL, HBO/Cinemax, Cable TV systems with VOIP and high-speed internet and, of course movies.

    Summer is blockbuster time and they have Harry Potter (6/28-7/13 premiers), Oceans 13 (6/8) and other stuff coming out but its the upcoming GS Internet conference that makes this worth a gamble as people are still unclear about the deal they have with Google.

    They ran to $23 in Jan but broke down and the May 1 earnings were taken well at first but they had a little pullback. I expect them to get back to $23 in 30 days so the sooner they do it the better we do and I didn’t want to chance missing an entry, even though it may drop back in a weak market but this position can be saved (in an emergency) by buying 10 Oct $22.50s for .80 and selling 10 July $20s for $1.85 (.30 premium) as a mo play to the downside, using the July $22.50s as a backstop for a run-up and otherwise loving a market downturn as it would leave you with free July and October calls but in a flat market I’ll have faith that they take a lead and stand pat to .20 where I’m more likely to DD than take a $300 loss.

    See, there’s a method to my madness, I just dont have time to convey that all when we’re in the middle of a trading day!


    LOL – welcome Keyser! Everyone asks that and you are supposed to get some sort of initial Email that gives some pointers but the best thing you can do is just go back 2-3 weeks and read all the posts and comments. We get a regular stream of new people and you’ll get all your questions answered plus lots you haven’t thought of yet. Alway feel free to ask about anything else, most of the members can answer as well as I can.

    We use XXX to signify a trade I generally recommend. Sometimes I will also specify which portfolio it’s for but usually I forget that. The XXX let’s people do a CTRL-F for it and it seems that RSS readers can filter for it or something but I don’t know as I never use them. Also, please read the strategy section as well as the education section, that will give you a good idea of trading styles we aspire to (as opposed to the intra-day buy/sell/sell/buy lunacy that we actually practice).

    I also encourage new people to paper trade as we follow many different styles and it’s important to get a handle on ones that work for you. When I say a “mo”(mentum) play it means tight stops and generally a gamble or if I set T(railing)stops that’s a mo play too and these are not for everyone. We have a $10KPortfolio where we try not to daytrade (but if you make a lot of money in a day – take it!) and a Long Term Portfolio which is nice and mellow and does not require even daily attention while most of the trades we make are for the short-term portfolio, which has a little of everything. Portfolio tab is up on top but don’t feel the need to catch up – if you check out the above XXX trades I think you’ll see we have no shortage of ideas…


    MRVL – I totally agree. Ridiculous sell off and will pop when options issues are resolved but painful to hold. I don’t like the premium on the ’09 $15s so I would take 1x $17.50s as well as 1x Jan $15s for a $5.85 total and aggressively sell 1x July $15 calls for a .60 premium so that 3 sells will pay for my ’08 premium and I collect that time spread at will and I get a $1 insurance buffer each month and if it pops I get the full benefit on my longer calls. XXX, but let’s see how tomorrow goes first!

  303. Rayder,

    CTSH – Thanks for patiently explaining your trade.

    From the chart at

    I do see why you bought the bullish call spread on Monday. I also agree with you that now CTSH may be oversold but I still think it goes some lower (say $73) – especially if the rest of market goes down and the Indian Rs. keeps getting stronger (or even stays where it is).

    I still think INFY leads CTSH price action. Compare them on a 3 yr chart and tell me if you agree (or am I seeing patterns to fit my conclusion)

    I am also waiting for INFY to start turning around from the free-fall it has been, cover my short and go long INFY before I go long CTSH.

  304. Wang’s World
    new post up!

  305. Phil

    Great post on MRVL and VLO strategy. Kudos. =)

  306. msquare,

    INFY/CTSH – It does look like there is a correlation between the stocks. I’m not surprised, since they are very similar companies. I hope that CTSH isn’t so pegged to the price of INFY that it can’t move up without INFY. CTSH does seem a bit oversold compared to INFY in the latest leg of the downtrend. Either way, there is still a little time for INFY to complete its downward trend and turn up before June expirations. I’m keeping my fingers crossed.