Archive for 2007

Friday Virtual Portfolio Moves

Posted July 20, 2007 at 9:37 am | Permalink (Edit)

Sorry, concentrating on GOOG.

In with 40 $520s at .75, will sell 1/2 at $1.50 and buy 20 $530s as a roll. Puts are too expensive so far but will buy 20 $500 puts for $1, preferably .75.

Posted July 20, 2007 at 9:38 am | Permalink (Edit)

VLO turning down sharply again.

NOV $115 puts at .10, just a feeling!

Posted July 20, 2007 at 9:45 am | Permalink (Edit)

GOOG – sorry was shooting up while I posted. Already a free ride – this is why I posted the strategy last night, you need to buy into that initial dip. Now going the other way. NEVER chase these the time to buy the puts is when its going up and the time to buy calls is when it’s going down – don’t be a sucker, don’t spend more than a craps bet and don’t violate your intended amounts until you are ahead (and then never risk your nut).

Posted July 20, 2007 at 9:46 am | Permalink (Edit)

XOM – sold $95 puts against my $90 puts for a mo play, praying to get even.

Posted July 20, 2007 at 9:57 am | Permalink (Edit)

AMD being slapped right back down. Internals look ugly, nobody would pay me for XOM $95 puts 8-( I am just screwed on that position! Going to funnel my frustration into more Aug $90 puts. I no longer X these as I do not generally recommend them as they are only good plays if you can afford 3 month’s worth of DDs and rolls.

ICE popping back up.

GOOG – very dangerous here as many many people are playing this channel so there will be a lot riding on expiring right at $515 but I’m trying to get the $510 puts for $1.50 or less and will buy more $520s at $1, looking to be 40/40 ahead of lunch and cutting back to 20/20 through the end of the day. Every time I get a double on either side I take half off and…
continue reading





Thursday Virtual Portfolio Moves

Posted July 19, 2007 at 9:48 am | Permalink (Edit)

SIRI – no, I’m frozen into a roll.

Let’s make sure the S&P breaks 1,555 or it is time to roll up our DIA puts back to the Aug $140 puts. If the Nasdaq can’t hold 2,710 that will be a concern too but I don’t like the Q puts as the Nas could really pop with GOOG/AAPL.

As usual the XLE’s are pokey so we can play the $75s to either side if we get a strong signal from XOM/COP/CVX. VLO tanking and TSO may follow so the Aug $55 puts at $2.30 are a nice downside play. XXX – but only if you need a downside play!

I looked at the upside and, other than XLE, I can’t get behind them – even with oil up here. OII would be the best of the bunch as they are consolidating at $55 and the Oct $55s are $4.85 and can be offset by the Aug $55s, now $3.05 on a downturn. XXX

Posted July 19, 2007 at 9:58 am | Permalink (Edit)

XOM – no I think I am screwed, I think that was stupid and my premise broke long before the close and I should have taken my lumps and gotten out with half. I’ve taken up a heavy position in the Aug $90 puts to start a proper following roll on them but, for the most part, I simply wasted a lot of money.

UNH – they are still paying $2.33 for the Aug $50s so we may as well take it as damage control and hope they stabilize (against leaps of course).

HOC giving a nice entry on Aug $75 puts at $2.30 XXX these will be great if the gas build is in the high 80s or better.

Posted July 19, 2007 at 9:59 am | Permalink (Edit)

Oh, if oil goes down they will take the S&P with them so don’t get too excited if XOM does start to tank until you cover the rest.

Posted July 19, 2007 at 10:00 am | Permalink (Edit)

OIH – I took the $2 of course for selling…
continue reading





Final Exam Friday

Now we get the big test:

A "miss" by GOOG, a BIG MISS by CAT (on record sales and profits), a big beat by SLB (which should rocket the OIH so let’s look at the $185 calls out of the box), a big beat by WHR, a mixed report from MSFT and nice earnings from C and BAC.

It’s oil day with Criminal Narrators Boosting Crude as they had our man Phil Flynn live first thing in the morning and hourly updates on T Boone’s China trip where they actually tried to explain that China’s Three Gorges Dam, which came in 10% under budget at $22.5Bn and will pay for itself in 10 years while generating 100 Terrawatts per year, isn’t such a good idea.  The energy generated by running water through a turbine with zero pollution is saving 31 Million tons of coal per year and cutting the emissions of 100M tons of greenhouse gas.

Relative position of the Three Gorges Dam .While some people (1M) were relocated to build the dam and some environmental damage was done to the surrounding region, the fact is that the project controls downstream flooding and protects over 50M acres of farmland in areas where millions of people have had to abandon on several occasions.  While T Boone and the CNBC crew seek to highlight hydroelectric’s problems, the fact of the matter is that this profitable government vernture will supply the electricity needs of 90M people and 4 more dams are in the works that will supply another 180M people’s needs with another (and I’m not kidding) 16 dams in early stages.  This project began in 2003 – while we were marching off to war for oil, China began a war on oil consumption and pollution that could meet the electricity needs of the entire United States for less money than the latest "troop surge" cost us

What is making T Boone and Phil Flynn so nervous?  Perhaps it’s the fact that China is now exporting this technology, with a project already scheduled in Burma that will produce 4Bn kilowatts annually.  If this catches on they’ll have to switch from crying "peak oil" to "peak water!"  Don’t worry boys, this solution will only work in countries where they have rivers.

Speaking of Mr. Flynn, apparently he now feels the need to directly address whatever Zman and I say in the mornings as his
continue reading





Thursday Wrap-Up – Google Goes Down!

Happy 14,000!

I said this morning that nothing mattered until we hear from Google but the market did do it’s leveling best to look like it mattered today.

We made it through Uncle Ben’s testimony and the Fed minutes relatively unscathed and we shook off some very shakey leading indicators (-.3%, down from +.3%, -.1% expected) and a pathetic 9.2 reading at the Philly Fed, down from 18 last month and far lower than the 13 expected.  So Q3 starting with a real downward turn but the party seems to march on with an unstoppable momentum but I’m worried it’s going to be like a New Year’s party where the action really heats up around midnight (pick your target level), even though everyone is tired, and then quickly breaks up, leaving a very big mess.

Google’s topline revenues rose 62% but they made the unforgivable mistake of investing in the future by hiring 1,500 very highly paid employees (+13%) AND expensing the bonuses paid to capture the best and the brightest.  In the conference call Eric Schmidt said:  "We have continued to make significant investments, as we have previously discussed. We are growing rapidly, building the best infrastructure, hiring the best to extend our footprint internationally, all the things that we talked about. Building better and better products and invest in doing so in the model that we’ve talked about: 70/20/10, 20% of the time, and that sort of thing."

That’s right, they are doing EXACTLY what they said they would do and missed earnings by .03 out of $3.59 and took a $15Bn hit in after hours trading for it.  I have been blaming corporations for ruining this country by focusing more on stock buybacks and bottom line earnings than capital investment and R&D but now I’m going to blame — YOU!  What is wrong with you investors?  Are you people 5 years old?  If you don’t get the results you want every single quarter do you just have a little temper tantrum and dump a stock?  Apparently so…

Oh well, Mr. Buffett and I thank you for your skittishness!

Seriously people, I know that attention deficit disorder is some kind of national disease but isn’t this taking things a little too far?  Here is a list of the wealthiest Americans who ever lived, adjusted for inflation.  Mr. Buffett is only…
continue reading





Through the Roof Thursday?

Are we ready for takeoff?

I've written several articles outlining my theory of stock market physics and we do indeed seem to be appoaching escape velocity as the Paulson/Bernanke plan that led me to make my Dow 15,000 call in December bears (oops, don't say bears!) fruit.

As I predicted yesterday when we bought FXI calls on the member site, Asia responded well to our minor dip and the Hang Seng jumped 174 points to close back above 23,000, now outpacing the Dow by 9,000 points since both indices stood at 8,000 back in April of 2003 (hey, isn't that around when we went into Iraq?).  Well we're still over there but the Hang Seng (and the rest of the world) decided not to wait and started a global party without us.  As we discussed on Monday, there are very good reasons for China to be enthusiastic about their decision to choose butter over guns in the new millennium.

"We can do without butter, but, despite all our love of peace, not without arms. One cannot shoot with butter, but with guns." - Joseph Goebbels

"Guns will make us powerful; butter will only make us fat." – Hermann Goering

China announced this morning that Q2 economic growth accelerated to 11.9%, up from 11.1% in Q1.  This is what Cramer likes to call ARG, or Accelerating Revenue Growth and it's his number one reason to invest in a company.  Costs (inflation) are running a little high at 4.4% over last year but sales (exports) are up 28% with "continued heavy investment in new factories and infrastructure."  It's amazing what can happen when the government and corporations work together to build an economy rather than their balance sheets isn't it?

It's not just China, Bessemer Venture Partners are earmarking 1/3 of their new $1Bn fund for India while other US venture capital firms are setting up specific funds for China and India.  So we gather money from US investors and invest in foreign corporations, where all the real growth investments are being made.  This is the begining of the Dollar Carry Trade I talked about yesterday and, while it's not exactly great news for the US, what do you expect investors to do…
continue reading





Wild Wednesday Wrap-Up

That wasn't so bad was it?

You know the markets have clearly left orbit when a $20Bn hedge fund blowing up barely causes it to pause.  While he didn't hurt the market, I wouldn't say Bernanke helped the market, as he flat out stated the housing slump had deepened and "Upside risks to inflation are [the Fed's] predominant policy concern."  Woo hoo – party on Ben!

Here's some of the great things Ben said that don't seem to matter to investors:

  • Mr. Bernanke added a new inflation risk to the ones he has cited in the past: Productivity growth has "slowed somewhat," he said.
  • "Month-to-month movements in inflation are subject to considerable noise, and some of the recent improvement could also be the result of transitory influences."
  • "Sizable increases in food and energy prices have boosted overall inflation and eroded real incomes in recent months… PCE inflation ran at an annual rate of 4.4 percent over the first five months of this year to a level that would clearly be inconsistent with the objective of price stability."
  • "Yet another risk is that energy and commodity prices could continue to rise sharply, leading to further increases in headline inflation and, if those costs passed through to the prices of non-energy goods and services, to higher core inflation as well."
    • Nonetheless, the Fed lowered their official 2008 core forecast to between 1.75 and 2%.
  • "Declines in residential construction will likely continue to weigh on economic growth over coming quarters, although the magnitude of the drag on growth should diminish over time."
  • "Nevertheless rising delinquencies and foreclosures are creating personal, economic, and social distress for many homeowners and communities--problems that likely will get worse before they get better." 
  • Fed officials lowered their forecasts for economic growth both this year and next by a quarter percentage point from their February view.

Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics is quoted by the journal saying: "To us, Mr. Bernanke has a pair of rose-tinted spectacles clamped firmly to his face, not least when he said that the housing drag will “diminish over time” and that the
continue reading





Wednesday Virtual Portfolio Moves

Posted July 18, 2007 at 9:51 am | Permalink (Edit)

Nice Oil Major run-up ahead of inventory. XOM $90 puts are too cheap not to play at .70 (XXX mo play with a DD at .50 and a stop at .35 (down 40%) that would really hurt) but I’m concerned that the fix is in as they are going nuts ahead of Bernanke’s speech. It could be just based on the fact that it’s always worked before or it could be a good trend…

Posted July 18, 2007 at 10:03 am | Permalink (Edit)

IMB – I don’t know, I got inside information that said they would not miss earnings from that article so I have to think that this sell-off is not about them but about the general disaster in that market. LEH downgraded them today and we’ll have to see if $27.50 holds but I think I’ll DD on the Aug $30s at $1.10, certainly at $1, reducing the basis to $1.30-1.35. If it can’t hold a buck into earnings I’ll probably give up or I may short a few July $25s as a mo play.

Damn, I’ve got to tell you – everytime the market goes down the VIX shoots up. Think of the VIX as a rubberband that gives you a tightness reading. When the VIX is low, you have slack, when the VIX is high, it is harder and harder to keep going. The VIX shot up 5% this morning on a 100-point drop (from yesterday’s high) in the Dow. This keeps happening and makes me think downside resistance is WAY higher than upside resistance. Conclusion – crazy as it seems, keep short index positions covered with DIA Aug $140s, now $2.08 or Sept $142s, now $2.40 against which you can sell the July 140s for .40. XXX

Posted July 18, 2007 at 10:07 am | Permalink (Edit)

Bernanke is pushing that core number “preferred guage of price trends.” but “possible spillover” from subprime and that market has “eroded significantly.” Building permits are down 25% from last year!

I’m scaling into the DIA buys VERY slowly, they are easy to grab fast if the market jumps but no sense in buying when the market is on the…
continue reading





Wednesday Morning/Tuesday Wrap-Up

I lost my post from yesterday and I'm furious, first time that's happened in ages but I'll do my best to catch up…

We got our monster rally early on but, fortunately, we were skeptical about it and tightened up our index puts, as it only took 45 minutes in the morning before I said: "COP was just kidding with that opening. Oil sector heading south in general – markets may follow, especially with much of brokers’ gains coming off energy sector investments! So forget the XLF for now, ignore the Dow and if the SOX fail it’s all over for the Nasdaq!"

At 3:01 the market looked toppy and I said: "I’d like this rally better if the S&P would break 1,555" so we got a nice, clear indication just after that as the S&P confirmed an end-of-day downtrend, no doubt caused by people who got the BSC news before we did.  We had a nice heads up at 1:03 when we caught the builders taking a dive: "Builders going down and sentiment index at 16-year low!!! Down to 24 in July from 28 in June, worst since Gulf War began. This is wiping out a week of gains for many builders. TOL holding up if you want to jump on one but housing starts are in the morning so very risky."

We had been watching the S&P all day and Happy posted this chart:

 

Kudos to Happy Trading for showing excellent restraint yesterday.  As I said in yesterday's wrap up, this is the least amount of bullish picks we've had in months and Happy posted in the morning: "People are wondering why there are no trades listed. I’m being careful ahead of INTC and YHOO’s earnings. So, please be patient. Thank you!"   As we learned in the movie "War Games," sometimes the only winning move is not to play!

We also learned from the movies that sometimes toxic waste creates cool monsters that destroy cities but sometimes toxic waste is wrapped up in a pretty package and marketed as "The Bear Stearns High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Fund" and destroys $20Bn of investors assets.  The total credit market is $7 Trillion – do you really think this is over?  Click on this video to remind yourself…
continue reading





Tuesday Virtual Portfolio Moves

Posted July 17, 2007 at 10:00 am | Permalink (Edit)

WNR – YAY!

VLO – there is nothing they can do to support themselves if gas and oil keep going in opposite directions like they are now. I’m only mostly negative on them anyway, they are one of my favorite cover plays as well. CNBC seems to be responding to my posts too and is talking up backwardation like it validates strong current demand but that’s an asinine way to look at it when the long contracts are falling. They are talking about backwardation when front month contracts rise FASTER than longer contracts, a situation you can assume will catch up over time but that’s NOT what’s happening now. Of course all those technical terms assume some sort of purity of market movement that has something to do with supply and demand.

WFR pins down almost every month, non-news articles are a great catalyst (see Cramer’s classic video on how hedge funds manipulate the media at will by planting stories). That’s why they are so great to sell calls against! With the SOX up they are a nice buy opportunity on the Aug $65s, now $2, that were $4 yesterday. I’d wait and pick it up on momentum up if the markets hold strong and they hold $60 but this is very likely a flush looking at the very big volume spikes at the open. They may hold this through expiration (earnings are 25th) so you could go longer, like Oct $65s for $4 and sell the July $60s for $1.40 and the 2010s are very cheap with the $60s at $19 (look how much premium you get for 4 days of the July $65s!). XXX

Posted July 17, 2007 at 10:16 am | Permalink (Edit)

COP was just kidding with that opening. Oil sector heading south in general – markets may follow, especially with much of brokers’ gains coming off energy sector investments! So forget the XLF for now, ignore the Dow and if the SOX fail it’s all over for the Nasdaq! XXX

Posted July 17, 2007 at 10:26 am | Permalink (Edit)

NMX – if they oil bubble pops and no on wants to trade 200,000 contracts 500,000 times…
continue reading





Tuesday Morning: Market Meltdown or Monster Rally?

300 gallons of radioactive water spilled into the Sea of Japan yesterday and that can only lead to one thing:

Godzilla!

tradetechUpriceThat's right, the king of the monsters was spawned by just such an event and shareholders of CCJ ran in terror yesterday, giving us the best buying opportunity we've had in months on one of my favorite stocks.  While the company has some real issues with the shutdown of one of a major mining project due to flooding, it is not a long-term issue and the small dip in uranium futures (caused by CCJ's announcement that they have avoided a possible strike and expect the mine to be delayed by less than one year (2011, rather than late 2010).

Kelvin Chan points out that short selling has run up to 6.2% on CCJ, who are scheduled to report on 7/31, haven't issued a warning and are selling Uranium that is 280% more than last year's Q2 average of $42 - have fun with that play shorties!  Coincidentally (yeah, right), there was also a rumor floated that CCJ was going to buy Paladin, who have already denied what is looking more and more like a pre-earnings attempt to flush people out of the stock as it consolidates for a run over $60.  We are already long with a double on our Jan $55s but I did take the opportunity to buy out my callers yesterday and even added more contracts rather than panic with the rest of the crowd.

All the world's markets are currently poised in Monster Breakout Mode and rolling right into the goals I set back in May, when we updated the big chart:

 

 

Day’s

Must

Comfort

Break

Next


continue reading





 
 
 

ValueWalk

#1 Performing Global Macro Hedge Fund Sees More Shorts Opportunities Ahead As China Bursts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Crescat Global Macro Fund update to investors on 1/19/2019

Crescat Global Macro Fund and Crescat Long/Short fund delivered strong returns for both December and full year 2018 in a difficult market. Based on ...



more from ValueWalk

Zero Hedge

Johns Hopkins, Bristol-Myers Face $1 Billion Suit For Infecting Guatemalan Hookers With Syphilis 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A federal judge in Maryland said Johns Hopkins University, pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb and the Rockefeller Foundation must face a $1 billion lawsuit over their roles in a top-secret program in the 1940s ran by the US government that injected hundreds of Guatemalans with syphilis, reported Reuters.

Several doctors from Hopkins an...



more from Tyler

Phil's Favorites

Divisive economics

 

Guest author David Brin — scientist, technology consultant, best-selling author and futurist — explores the records of Democrats and Republicans on the US economy in the following post. For David's latest posts, visit the CONTRARY BRIN blog. For his books and short stories, visit his web...



more from Ilene

Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock declines did not break 9-year support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We often hear “Stocks take an escalator up and an elevator down!” No doubt stocks did experience a swift decline from the September highs to the Christmas eve lows. Looks like the “elevator” part of the phrase came true as 2018 was coming to an end.

The first part of the “stocks take an escalator up” seems to still be in play as well despite the swift decline of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- All of these indices hit long-term rising support on Christmas Eve at each (1), where support held and rallies have followed.

If you find long-term perspectives helpf...



more from Kimble C.S.

Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



more from Bitcoin

Insider Scoop

Cars.com Explores Strategic Alternatives, Analyst Sees Possible Sale Price Around $30 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 44 Biggest Movers From Yesterday 38 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Mid-Day Session ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



more from Chart School

Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



more from Our Members

Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

more from Biotech

Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



more from M.T.M.

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

more from Promotions





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>