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Testy Tuesday Morning

Will 12,200 hold today or are we heading for a retest of our January lows?


11.700 is "just" 500 points away and, as Stock and Option Trades pointed out last night, a 70-point bounce in the Dow following a 400-point down day (less than 20%) does not inspire much confidence that a correction is over.  Yesterday morning I said I wanted a consolidation day and we got one so today I will say "thank you sir, may I have another"  because, painful though it may be, we need it!

[An investor looks at the stock-price monitor at a private-security company in Shanghai Tuesday, as  Chinese stocks plunged.]There was no consolidation in Asia this morning as China came back from holiday in a foul mood and the Hang Seng played 1,000 points of catch-up, with that market dropping 4.21% but that was nothing compared to the 7.7% dive on the Shanghai Composite as the effect of the PBOC's increased reserve ratios kicks in.  Japan and India each dropped another point but it was all about China and China-connected firms and it's probably a good day to get back into some Japanese exporters like SNE and TM if the dollar continues to strengthen.

"Right now I am advising investors to stand well back unless they are already short," said Ben Collett, head of hedge fund sales trading at Daiwa Securities SMBC in Hong Kong. "We have more work to do on the downside."  Meanwhile, India's Central Bank is expected to adopt further measures to slow accelerating inflation in the wake of fuel-price rises, a move that could crimp growth in the world's second-fastest-growing major economy.

Amid soaring global fuel prices, India last week trimmed fuel subsidies, raising gasoline and diesel prices by about 10% while also increasing the price of cooking fuel. Such measures are expected to contribute to inflation, with wholesale-price inflation — the measure most-watched in India — already at a 44-month high and forecast by analysts to hit 10% this month.

Over in Europe, the ECB's twice-yearly financial-stability review said the likelihood of further falls in U.S. house prices, the larger-than-expected losses that global banks have taken on troubled assets, and the persistent rise in oil prices were among the factors that had combined to increase risks to financial stability in the currency bloc since December.  The ECB is also concerned that the 1.9Tn Hedge Fund industry remains over-leveraged and may have do dump bonds and debt assets to meet margin calls.

Bernanke says he's not worried and that "The surprising jump in the unemployment rate last month — a half-percentage point — hasn't materially affected the economic outlook."  Mr. Bernanke's remarks suggest the jump in the jobless rate to 5.5% in May from 5% in April won't much affect the Fed's interest-rate plans this year.  "Despite the unwelcome rise in the unemployment rate that was reported last week, the recent incoming data, taken as a whole, have affected the outlook for economic activity and employment only modestly."  

Isn't he just adorable?  I seem to remember similar BS about the housing crisis, the mortgage crisis and the credit crisis, inflation and the national debt…  I'm pretty sure if aliens came and took over the planet they would be able to keep Bernanke's head in a jar and it would continue to say that the invasion hasn't materially affected the economic outlook.

Newsweek has recession on the cover this week with the headline "Why It's Worse Than You Think." and I love to see that sort of thing on the cover of a magazine because it's often a great indicator that it's over.  I stand by my contention that it is all about oil right now and this whole thing can turn around very quickly if we do something concrete to bring down energy prices but, unfortunately, Bush is still in office through January and we may have to wait until then as this administration has effectively done everything possible NOT to reduce energy prices for over 7 years.

Inflationchart_83Only a drastic series of changes to the way we measure inflation enacted under Reagan/Bush I have enabled this President to hide behind "official" statistics that mask the damage that is being done to this nation as Trillions of dollars are being transferred from the middle class (generously defined as people who earn less than $250K) and up to the top 1% of US wage earners. 

There is a fraud being perpetrated on the American people as runaway inflation strips away the assets of the middle class and increases the holdings of the wealthy who have now taken to using their ill-gotten gains to manipulate necessities like food and energy to force the poor to give up what little they have left, now that they have pulled the rug out from the real estate scam, where they put as many people as possible into homes they couldn't afford in order for the wealthy to cash out their land holdings (which they take back later at half the price through foreclosure).

You can't have economic expansion without a middle class and this administration has effectively redefined the middle class they "take care of" as the top 10% of US wage earners while allowing the other 90% of the country to go down the toilet

Even as I write this RDSA is having yet another "worker dispute" that is leading to a strike that will cause disruption to fuel supply, this time in England.  The opening of NYMEX trading has taken oil up $3, back to $137 for the first time since floor trading halted yesterday at $134.12.  The strike is just an excuse for MS and GS to continue doing what Congress found they were guilty of last week.  This is just the greed of the wealthy, squeezing the last few dollars out of the global consumers by jacking up the price of consumables they are forced to buy, which forces them to borrow and forces them to leverage out the last few dimes of their homes in order to keep the lights on this summer.

Fortunately this year we will be given the opportunity to vote for real change but I'm worried about how much damage will be done over the next 6 months as we live in a country where the price of oil can go up 50% in 6 months and our "leader" hasn't even bothered to get on TV and make a serious speech about it – not even to say "I feel your pain."  This is no surprise to the 30% of Hurricane Katrina victims, who have still not been able to return to their homes 3 years after that catastrophe.

As I have often said the past few years, we do not have an economic crisis so much as a crisis of leadership.  In the middle of an actual depression, Franklin Roosevelt came on the radio and told Americans "We have nothing to fear but fear itself - Nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance. In every dark hour of our national life a leadership of frankness and vigor has met with that understanding and support of the people themselves which is essential to victory."

We've lived under an adminstration that has used fear and greed to undermine this country for close to a decade and I'm frankly sick of it.  Let's remember it's not just Bush though, he has many enablers and many of those people are up for election this November so let's send a real message this time – things can change, this country can be great, we just need leaders who solve problems rather than eleciting weak willed tools of big business who parrot the party line that big Government is the problem.  Government is only a problem when you vote for leaders based on issues like abortion or low taxes rather than on the actual ability of that person to LEAD. 

We are so used to ineptitude that we celebrate mediocrity in our leaders and it has to stop!

The markets are currently being driven down by fear on the part of the investing public and greed on the part of the commodity speculators but the reality is that the US economy is not in such bad shape and a simple reversal of the price of oil can send the markets flying again.  Our first quarter GDP growth was 0.9%.  In 2001, our growth bottomed out at 0.4% and in the great recession of 1980, annualized growth hit NEGATIVE 3.4% – now that's a recession!

Over the past two quarters, the annualized growth rate was about 0.7 percent, almost double the growth rate of the shallowest recession on record.  Consumption has been holding up as well. Annualized real consumption growth over the first two quarters of a postwar recession is 0.2 percent. The maximum annualized growth rate over the first two quarters was 2.8 percent, posted during the 1969-70 recession. The minimum growth rate over the same time frame was negative 4.7 percent, which was posted during the recession of 1980.

The annualized growth rate over the past two quarters has been 0.8 percent, not the best on record, but roughly four times higher than the typical post-World War II recession.

So we're going to ride this one out and see where it takes us but, even if we do break down here and head back to 11,700, I'm still a buyer.  The worse the economy gets the more likely it is we wil have a major change of leadership in November and that's all it's really going to take to turn this country around because there's nothing wrong with America on the whole, it's just temporarily being run by idiots.





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  1. Great post Phil.

  2. Phil so i didnt get out of my june 560 ‘s and didnt roll either. DD at the open for me or a roll

  3. talking about goog

  4. ditto youpauly, great phost phil.

    sometimes i think this must all be a dream.  then i pinch myself and it hurts.

  5. Hey Fred (following up on comments from previous post) – don’t blame OPEC, they say there is rampant speculation and the Saudis just announced they are going to put more oil on the market to try to get prices down.  This is a 100% Bush/Cheney plan making money for their pals at the expense of America.

    $560s/Shahir – Rolling is better, up to $5.50 per $10 and don’t discount the idea of taking the $540s as you can sell $550s against them and turn it into a not too bad vertical if you have to.  I’ll be buying $550 calls as sooon as I think we bottom out.

    Dont’ pinch yourself Windy – this year I resolve to pinch as many others as possible, I’m not going to sit by and let this continue…

  6. Greg – dude, great post yesterday evening about having a LT view.  Agree 100%.  From what I remember of you back in the day you seem to have turned into a very well thought-out trader.  Good job my friend, keep finding those SIMG’s!!!

  7. GOOG $550s for $12.80, 5 in DTP, DD at $10.20, then a roll down and another DD planned.  XXX

  8. HK- Thanks Cramer Only about $13 late.  LOL
    XTO- interesting buyout this morning.

  9. holy C!!!

  10. Phil
    Sorry to bother you.  How can I get to Optrader posts?  When I click on Optrader, I am directed to April posts, and the free sight has no current posts.  T
    Thanks… Dan

  11. Saudis said they had ALREADY put 500,000 barrels on the market this 1/4 is what I thought they said.  Big difference IMO if I heard it correctly

  12. PCX – spending $2.10 to roll to $135 puts.  That is step one to rolling out.  If we don’t get a good sell-off then we sell the $130 puts for $4 and use that money to roll ourselves out to the July $130 puts, which should be a bit better than even.  Hopefully though, we can just get out even on our $9.90 basis.  XXX

  13. Taking out callers I’m up more than 50% on.  XXX

  14. Phil, – Two Points
    My only point was he sounded like he could work for OPEC.  You’d never have thought he was a United States top government official.  Even the president of OPEC said yesterday that the price was due to a weak dollar and rampant speculation.
    2.  You mentioned Katrina and was wondering if you saw the world news tonight story last Friday regarding the earthquake in China.  They showed the coordinated effort of rebuilding.  One new development already had 16,000 houses built and every day they were able to build another 1,000 units.  What was so amazing is there was no heavy equipment, just lots of people in a cooordinated fashion.  For god’s sake they were mixing concrete by hand.  It made me think that the whole Katrina incident was just disgusting the way it was handled.  I went with my father-in-law last year to help rebuild in New Orleans for two weeks and I got the sense that nobody was in charge, just a bunch of disparate pieces (church groups) etc. that were trying to make some headway.  This country is broken big time as we love to criticize nations like China but the stark contrast of how they handle a disaster versus the U.S. made me embarrassed.

  15. Optrader – I think he posted a link in yesterday’s comments, I’ll shoot him an Email to let him know you are having trouble. 

    Saudis – it’s all about public perception.  There is no supply issue anyway, Saudis are doing what Bush won’t, they are saying they will take action if necessary and that’s all it takes.

    All we need today is another day of consolidation, we don’t need to "win" to be in much better shape for the end of the week.

  16. Dan, and everyone who is looking for us, we are here:
    We are going to be free another day or two and then we will move to Optrader’s tab. There is a coupon code for PSW members, it is 595D0A61 and will give you the special rate of $399 for the full year. It is a limited time offer that will only last one month.

    I will also start fresh on the portfolio in a couple of days, only keeping what’s open now.

  17. PCX – 11 green sessions in a row, finally showing some red (knock on wood). Phil, any plan for that baby? I have about 50 jun130 puts.

  18. PCX – sorry, missed your post, thanks for the info!

  19. Very good point  Fred.  That’s what I’m saying, this is a crisis of leadership and nothing more.  What I did see about China recently is the incredible patriotism among their young people, who love the "reforms" and overwhelmingly feel that China is on the right path.  When you have the people on your side, you can overcome great obstacles, the only thing Bush and co want to overcome is paying taxes and then they are surprised when "the people" don’t support them anymore.

    Big oil cos selling off hard, roaches heading for the exits while the manipulators at the NYMEX keep the headline number as high as possible to cover their tracks.  This can turn very ugly…  I have a ton of XOM and SU puts but that’s about it at the momen, the action has been far too whipsaw to make any bets this week.

  20. pcx – is that 2.10 a limit on the roll? It’s now debit 2.90….

  21. Phil,
    Do you think this next rally (when it happens) will be led by tech?

  22. Northeast Electricity
    I was talking to a guy up here who works for NSTAR who provides both electric and natural gas supplies.  Their internal forecasts are prediciting a 40% rise in consumer electric rates that only adjust 2x per year.  70% of the eletricity in our area is produced using natural gas.  In addition, the cost per therm for natural gas that was $1.19 last winter is projected to be around $2.  Of course all the rates need to be approved by PUC.

  23. Oh, the point on the 2x per year for consumers is that businesses get adjusted more frequently and the commercial rates have already climbed over 20%.

  24. fredrang/china response- i share ur disgust.

    i think it’s the domestic monster and olympic spotlight- but a great thing all the same for those poor folks. the US has an extremely servile, pampered and distracted populace who’d never dream of taking to the streets these days (ie katrina indiffernce or just spend mismanaged money- FEMA)

    china knows they could very well have had a tienamen II while on the world stage.- especially in this age of internet coordination. im not saying the chinese govt would have simply abandoned the quake victims, but i am saying it’s largely a question of the domestic public and world pressure.

    we need to take the streets- starting on pennsylvania ave and then onto the corner of wall & broad.

  25. Phil,
    Can u recommend a long term put on oil index or stocks?  Short term, I not sure.  My feel is that as long as Bush & Co. are in power they will manipulate the oil markets to favor their pals.  So it might head higher for a short term but it will come down hard.  I appreciate your suggestions.

  26. Fred- I talked to a Reliant guy here in Dallas on Sunday.  He says rates will be higher than the 40% increase  here because of AC

  27. bbd – Lakers
    So, after Jackson’s outburst how many extra frivilous fouls will they call on the Celtics tonight?  My prediction, Kobe will take 20 free throws tonight.

  28. Phil -
    Any thoughts on my GS position? JUN/JUL 180 Call Calendar?  I have -10 JUN GS 180 and +20 JUL GS 180.

  29. C action-

    Citigroup’s Pandit Says Liquidity Returning to Normal (Update1)

    By Joyce Moullakis and Jon Menon

    June 10 (Bloomberg) — Liquidity at financial-services companies and banks is returning to “normalized” levels following the turmoil caused by the collapse of credit markets last year, Citigroup Inc. Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit said.

    The industry is rebalancing from very “unusual times,” Pandit told the British Bankers’ Association annual conference in London today. Liquidity, savings and risk premiums are moving closer to “normalized” levels.

  30. i know we have july vlo jsut curious what we are looking for ( Didnt follow the 20% in one day rule). i know u guys do this trade all the time but first time im in on it

  31. ISRG still going down, that S&P inclusion never works out long-term.

    If we can’t get the NYSE motivated to get back over 9,100 I think the drag is too great on the other indexes.  VIX is finally angry though, up 1:50 to the Dow, 2x normal so I think we get a bounce of 25 at least but that’s at least 12,200, maybe lower.  S&P 1,350 is obviously critical to the downside.

    "Supply may be stretched much more than producers are actually admitting"  – Wow, that’s CNBC’s new reason to buy oil, that producers are lying about capacity? 

    PCX – I got it for $2.10, maybe offer $2.40 but I wouldn’t pay .50 over that. 

    Fab – Yes, next rally must be led by tech for it to be real.

    Long-Term Oil Put – We are in USO 2010 $102 puts, which have gone nowhere at $16.50 since last week so they make a great LTP play to sell closer puts against.

    GS/String – I would take out the callers.  What is the point of having a $180 caller with GS at $164?  We were adding yesterday, this is a good floor for them.

  32. VLO/Shahir – Phil was buying at 45 level yesterday, July $47.50s in the $10 and $25KP

  33. GOOG- moving on search stats

  34. Mck- Ref PCX/ My limit order to roll @2.1 14 min ago was filled almost instantaneously, The spread is large. You can replace few minutes later if it doesn’t fill.

  35. Is it greedy not to cover AAPL until 189?

  36. PCX – that’s real helpful guidance on the entry point Phil, you seem to snap up deals lots of times that then aren’t necessarily available so a range is great, thanks.

  37. MCK i know what we bought but whats the target?

  38. Gold heading down nicely, getting close to my $875 target.  Oil is insanely ridiculous at this price with a rising dollar.

    DO NOT FORGET THAT BY TOMORROW, YOU SHOULD HAVE NO JUNE CONTRACTS THAT ARE NOT MOMENTUM PLAYS!  This does not include calls and puts you sold of course, but June is over and if you don’t like a position enough to roll it to July, then you should be selling it…  XXX

    VLO/Shahir – Falling oil and summer driving is god for refiners.

    GOOG still having trouble at $555, let’s keep a tight stop on that one.  AAPLL brushing up against $185 and I’m gloriously naked on that one but tempted to start covering with some $185s now.

  39. PCX – crap, spreads are huge (0.50 – 0.60) so maybe I’ll get 2.10 anyway. Roll is pricing from 1.40 – 2.50!

  40. Bought 1/2 position on TXT July 55′s for 3.6

  41. Two viewpoints re: Bernanke
    US Federal Reserve Board chairman Ben Bernanke has recently been on the receiving end of significant criticism for his monetary policy. One approach can be labeled the American conservative critique, and is associated with the Wall Street Journal. The other can be termed the European critique, and is associated with prominent European economist and Financial Times contributor, Willem Buiter.

  42. MVL .. second time I let escape them.. it won happen anymore

  43. I filled PCX spread at $2 a few minutes ago, fwiw

  44. goog – stop level on the jul520s or something else? Those are 49.50 now. Any covers?

  45. stubborn premiums – somebody mentioned last couple days. I have CHL june callers ATM (70) still getting 2.50! Tempting to write extra.

  46. film/AAPL- what do u think about the OCT 180s IV? im seeing mad bidding (i think)- mad bullish, yes? i know the company story is mad bullish, but im wondering if im reading this correctly (or if ther’s anything to read at all)

    also, everything in AAPL is being bid- so whatever….

  47. phil,
    I had sold FRE jun $24.00 puts and would like to know my options.  Currently, I loosing money on it.

  48. Covered Apple and GOOG again, market looks iffy at best, I’ll be happy to pay to roll them higher later.  Sold GOOG calls, of course, will rebuy later.  XXX

  49. USD- the rhetoric is really being pushed lately…

    Paulson to Tell G-8 Dollar Will Reflect Fundamentals

    June 10 (Bloomberg) — Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said he will tell his Group of Eight counterparts that “strong” U.S. long-term fundamentals will be reflected in the dollar and repeated that currency intervention is a tool for policy makers.

    “What the ministers will hear me say is a lot of what I say publicly,” Paulson said in an interview with Bloomberg Television today in Washington. “The long-term fundamentals in my judgment are not only strong, but they compare favorably with those of other industrialized major economies.”

  50. paulson- in a glancing way,  by "compares favorably" i think he means "we bomb a lot"

  51. fredrang,
    You hit the nail on the head.  This admin is so busy trying to make the last buck for their fund raisers as long as they are in control and pointing fingers to other nations / groups for its lack of action (or rather actions to create the organized chaos to steal the $ from the poor & the middle class – the majority of americans) in an effort to divert attention of the masses and keeping them busy to earn their living so that they have less time to analyze the admin (in)actions. I hope people wake up before its too late and try them for treason

  52. Phil:
    AAPL covered with June 185 or July 185?  Thanks

  53. phil, what do you think about LEH or WM here? I know you liked WM below 10…it’s certainly below 10.

  54. USO- traded 3.7M in volume w/ 9.8M 50 DMA

  55. guru
    covers are almost always front month, unless there’s no premium left or some other very specific reason.  since AAPL june 185 are all premium, over $5 worth, you would sell the june’s.

  56. setting the stage for UN sanction violations?

    Bush Wins EU Backing for More Iranian Bank Sanctions (Update2)

    June 10 (Bloomberg) — President George W. Bush won backing from the European Union for tighter sanctions against Iran’s banks, another step aimed at hampering Iranian ability to build nuclear weapons.

    European Commission President Jose Barroso, meeting with Bush in Slovenia, agreed to take “additional measures” to ensure that “Iranian banks cannot abuse the international banking system to support proliferation and terrorism,” according to a joint statement released at the end of the talks.

    “We discussed a lot of problems,” Bush said at a press conference outside a castle in Brdo, Slovenia. “We spent a lot of time on Iran. Iran with a nuclear weapon would be incredibly dangerous for world peace. They can either face isolation or they can have a better relationship with all of us.”

  57. xian, sorry but I disagree with you that the Olympic games spotlight is the main driving factor for the Chinese doing what are they doing to rebuild the earthquake area… No offense, but there are a lot of places on this world where the life doesn’t revolve around media’s headlines or other interests…

  58. Got an Email about oil… I thought it was an interesting take on it.:
    Over here we say it’s market manipulation (which is free capitalism),
    however a friend says it’s anti-capitalism.
    Here’s his email:
    "Ive had it with gas prices and because I can and I know what Im talking
    about allow me to vent.

    My father was born in west Texas in a tent on an oil field in 1928 where
    my grandfather worked. My family have been oil people since oil was

    My dad obtained his geology degree from Texas A&M in the late 1950′s and
    worked for Amoco among many other major oil companis up until he started
    his own firm in the late 1970′s. His job was to find oil and he was damn
    good at it. Good enough to be a true texas wildcatter.

    I spent many years sitting on rigs with him as a kid in west texas. He
    would observe samples from thousands of feet under the ground with a
    microscope to determine if a test drill was worthy of a sustained

    I KNOW THE OIL INDUSTRY so why are prices so high?

    Why is a gallon of gas 12 cents a gallon in Venuzala?

    Why is it 30 or 40 cents in the middle east?

    very simple.


    It is a fact that the United States has enough untapped oil to make us
    completly independent of foriegn oil and the price that comes with it for
    generations or until we find another source of energy.

    Why dont we drill?

    During the latest congressional fiasco they brought up the oil execs and
    one of our fine congressmen asked ‘How in a free market can gas prices be
    so high"?

    The answer? " its not a free market congressman when you wont let us

    That nailed it folks. It truy is that simple.

    Im not an advocate of had outs to big business but thats not the point

    Oil prices are driven by supply and demand and speculation.

    The next time you fill up your suv and you feel anger dont blame the oil
    companies or even the oil producing nations.

    The blame lies squarely on the shoulders of the anti-capitalist forces in
    this country.

    America became great because it was a beacon of hope and oppurtunity to
    millions fleeing sociolism and government tyranny over the last two
    hundred years.

    Sadly it is falling victim to those same forces.


  59. Poor GRMN – GPS in IPhone is freaking them out but there are 200M cars in US and 200M in Europe and 500M in the rest of the world and Apple will sell 10M IPhones – I don’t think it’s really going to eat into their market share as much as the stock would indicate.  Once they hit a bottom we should really consider these guys.

    PCX – with that spread you just have to put an offer in and be patient.  Exit on PCX at the moment is selling the $130s for $4.50 and rolling to the July $135 for $6, putting us in for $16, less the $4.50 = $11.50 and we can sell the July $130s for about $10 so we end up back in that cheap vertical spread we wanted when we first went into this trade.  XXX

  60. tlsvet- no offense taken, but i didnt say it was the main reason, i said it was largely that coupled w/ a huge population to manage.

    strangely, u say there r a lot of places in the world where things dont revolve around media headlines- as if china were one of them? isnt the media state managed?

    y manage the media if the headlines dont heavily influence things?

    i also think the chinese officials learnt a lot when they tried to b silent on the seriousness of avian flu.

  61. USO- has been decliing on volume and now approaching pp

  62. FSLR and OIH puts still working. ORCL $22.5 calls not working despite earnings in 2 weeks.

  63. Saudis
    "Oil price level is unacceptable", output up 500,000 BPD in the quarter.

  64. GOOG July – Those were naked gambles.  Unless something really bad happens, I expect GOOG to head back to $580 at least by expiration.

    FRE/Malai – Well they have a little premium and you can roll them to July $22.50 puts for about even and hope we recover next month.  You can take thar roll now and pick up $1.40 selling the $21 puts too.

    "Dollar will reflect fundamentals"?!?  Oh no, anything but that!!!   LOL Xian…

    AAPL – covered with June $185, they are giving you $5 in premium for 7 days, that’s a good deal!  GOOGs I covered with the $540s, hoping to pick up the downward mo as I figure they touch $445 again before heading back up. 

    XOM selling off nicely now, PCX too and most commodities heading south.

    LEH/WM – I’m just in C, BAC and the XLF.  Oh and GS.   If they can’t do well then there’s no point to playing the other finanicals.

    China – Well said Tlsvet!  It’s sad that it doesn’t occur to people in this country that a government might help people because it’s the right thing to do…

  65. In 10KP, as for Junes, we have BA June 80s and QID June 39 Puts.  The BAs are down hard.  What is your recommendation on those?

  66. I meant, what is recommendation on both of those.

  67. I think the Saudis are smart and realize that at this level demand destruction will be massive and the push for alternative energy will hurt their long term viability.

  68. Gasoline in Saudi Arabia went from 39 cents per gallon to 69 cents per gallon at the end of 1994.  In about April 1999 it went to 99 cents per gallon.  It was about US market price in 2000.  They were trying to gain acceptance to the WTO.  I don’t know where it is now.  I don’t know where it is "30 or 40 cents in the middle east?"

  69. DM- we could drill more- totally- and that would help bigtime, but oil is so industrial revolution era tech- we need to invest in alt energy and sell that tech to the rest of the world w/ our patents backed by u know what.

  70. China & Housing
    Interesting irony isn’t it….China reducing homeless and the United States throwing people out of their houses.  Good point, "doing the right thing".

  71. Phil,
    What do you think of GNK here?  Been beaten down from 80 recently.

  72. fredrang ? the United State throwing people out of their houses, thats a bit much isn’t it . maybe housing should be a right and the gov. should just give us housing ,

  73. Energy – Car Exchange Program
    Why not have a program like the gun exchange program to reduce violence.  We could take 3 months of the trade deficit, call it $180 billion and channel that to replacing the worst gas guzzlers.  That would enable us to put 12 million Honda Civics or similar vehicles on the road.  That’s assuming the government pays for the whole thing.  Say the inducement was the government will buy half your new car, that would increase to 24 million vehicles, etc. 
    It works for guns in some of the big cities and they only pay you $100 bucks.

  74. Oil back at $135 – it’s just amazing!

    $10KP – nothing to do but wait this out right now.  It’s  a commoditiy sell-off, nothing to be alarmed about.  BA is probably dead but we still have 10 days. 

    $25KP – same deal, getting hit hard and we’ll need to take our lumps if we can’t turn it around.  Most of the positions are longer though so it’s not an emergency yet.

    DTP – Taking out BA callers at $1.10 XXX

  75. Hi Phil,
    I am thinking now is a good time to take profits on DZZ.  Is there more downside in gold today?

  76. xian, I could have said it better, what I meant is that:
    - IMO, there wouldn’t have been a huge difference between the Chinese gov reaction between this year or year 2010,
    - also, IMHO, US citizens look at China through colored glasses… what I have learned in my life, is that nations are in reality quite different from what the other nation’s media presents them, especially if these two nations are at opposite poles…
    - I got the impression that your comment was influenced by the US-media-colored-glasses; if I misunderstood, I appologize

  77. USO- LOD’ing on the pp

  78. likewoods
    There is no one single entity to blame however we create a larger set of problems when people lose their houses both for the individual and society at large.  Have you ever studied the prison population?  A large percentage of those incarcerated are mentally ill.  How did they get there?  Our government slashed funding for mental health.  Gee what a surprise….you put a mentally ill person on the street with no way to make a living and no support, guess what happens? 
    Are you really suggesting that people don’t have a right to shelter, food and health care?  Call me a liberal but a society is judged not by the person with most stuff but by how it treats it’s least fortunate members. The jury is in and the answer is "Guilty".

  79. Phil- What do you think about DE for a LTP play? Good fundies, had a pullback, long term prospects for ag equipment are good. Moving into irrigation equipment - should help with water shortages.

  80. Did anyone else notice that TomTom has already ported their GPS software to the iPhone with the new SDK?

  81. XOM and CVX costing the Dow about 40 points today.

    The frenzy for drilling rights in the US is driven by the oil companies wanting to get cheap leases on government lands signed over before Obama steps in and asks for a fair price.  There are Trillions of dollars at stake and I think much of the current situation is being engineered to create an "urgency" that they can sell to Congress to open up drilling now.  If XOM et al want to drill for oil, they have the rights already to explore all over this country that they are not using.   This is about monopolizing ALL the available fields and nothing more.

    Picked up XOM $90 calls for .90 XXX

  82. Ref PCX. My horizontal roll and selling Jun130P was filled @2.25. I placed one combo order made of three legs. It took ~ 6 min. so probably you can get a better price.

  83. It is critical that Naz holds 200DMA, and it is playing dangerously close to that edge now right.   If not I’ll be very glad I am wearing that  QQQQ put parachute.

  84. tlsvet- its totally cool. i just think all govts r driven by the same goal: stay in power, get more power. and the media/info control is the way to do it (info is power).

    i think its very important to make a distinction b/t the govt and the people- and i could have been clearer. 

    when i said "china" i meant the chinese govt- not the average chinese person who is as good natured as any other person- probably more than americans as ive met a few chinese people in my work and find them humble (despite exceptional talent)

    if the US was in china’s shoes, our govt would do the samething: make sure no slip ups in the spot light.

    its totally cool.

  85. Phil –Ref JRCC ($43)3. I have Jun35/Sep35C calendar DITM with possibility of assignment and negative theta. I am >+60% since Apr. My plan is to Jul45/Sep45 then on the pull back roll down Sept. Do you think that it right thing to do now? BTW thx for PCX heads-up.

  86. "United States throwing people out of their houses."

    Actually, it’s banks that are foreclosing on houses because the people who took out the loans on those houses are now unable to pay them back. The liberal mindset would have you think that these people were taken advantage of, that they were forced to take out loans on houses they couldn’t afford, or that somehow the government was responsible. The majority of folks loosing their houses are the folks who couldn’t afford them in the first place. They bought too big a house, took out a slick interest only adjustable rate 40 year mortgage to pay for it, and then wonder why they are having issues?

    I think a lot (not all) of the folks who are being foreclosed on probably would have been foreclosed on eventually anyway because they took out too big a loan on too big a house (i.e. they excercised poor judgement). I think the banks deserve what they are getting because they did everything they could to get someone into a house (and now they are paying the price as well)…no doc loans, 40 year adjustable rate interest only loans, etc.

    To lay the blame for the entire credit / housing crisis solely on the administration is silly and ridiculous, and that mindset just goes to show how the liberals throw individual responsibility right out the window whenever there is a crisis.

  87. Phil:
    AAPL’s 3G phone – For $200, you are getting a i-POD, push type (Blackberry) e-mail, a GPS and an excellent 3G phone.  This is now going to be distributed through multiple carriers in 70 countries.  Almost all countries that matter have been signed up except China, which shouild also follow shortly.  VOD and Bharati have signed in India which currently boasts the fastest growth rate in new cell phone subscribers in the world.  In addition, AAPL is probably getting the full price (carriers paying the subsidies).
    Analysts now expect sales to increase to 45 mm in 2009 from 10 mm this year.   That alone boosts AAPL’s revenues by $7B in 2009!!!  Not many co can boost their revenues by that much on a single product intro.
    Much of yesterday’s sell-off created by Cramer and his hedge fund lemmings who were advised on CNBC to sell on the news. 
    Do you think that AAPL will stay here at 185 going into June expiration?

  88. JB- i think its more a matter of the response to the crisis after the fact.

    i agree that a very large measure is personal responsibility, but the pros who knew better let people go ahead while the feds looked the other way b/c everyone was making money shoveling the problem down the line.

    the mortgage crisis is like raising the legal blood alcohol level to drive and then saying the driver is to blame- sure they r- on the first glance.

    but y raise the BAL driving limit? maybe to sell more alcohol? and whose idea was it?

    but no one is going to go after BUD or the folks who let the safety standards implode all over society- those people in charge carry a very large measure of responsibility too, but they’re too upstream of the problem- so let everyone eat cake.

  89. Phil,
    What are your rules for moving the long-term call out in time?

  90. PEP bubbling on reaffirmed guidance.

  91. good analogy xian.

  92. JB
    Never said it was solely the government and last time I checked the government did regulate the banks so their is collective blame including individuals who ignored common sense.  Also, equating a liberal with lack of accountability is pure folly.  Just look at your fearless leader George, there is the poster boy for lack of accountability.  The best part of being a liberal is compassion and depth of understanding, something the money grubbing conservatives will never understand.

  93. GNK – I’d wait to see some consolidation around the 200 dma at $59, their chart looks awful!

    Likewoods – In many parts of the civilized world, housing is considered a basic human right and the governemnt does "just give" people housing.  The funny thing is, in the EU, where that sick sort of caring about people is like some rampant disease – their economy is kicking our asses, they have less debt than us and their currency is the strongest in the world.  I know – what idiots right!

    Car Exchange – That’s like my solution to encourage people to buy cars that get better mileage.  It could be accomplised in one model year.  All we have to do is tell auto makers that starting next summer, cars that get under 20 mpg will pay a $10,000 energy tax, cars getting from $21-25 mpg pay a $5,000 tax and cars that get 26-30 pay $2,500 tax.  Cars that get 31 to 35 mpg will get a $5,000 credit with a $7,500 credit at $36-40 and a $10,000 credit over 40.  Then let the automakers market accordingly.  If it costs the government an average of $5K for 20M cars (assuming the rebates increase sales 25%) sold next year, that’s just $100Bn but we save at least 1/3 of the fuel consumption on 20M cars so that’s 95M barrels of oil saved in year one of the program which will reduce our trade imbalance by $1Bn a month, even if oil prices stay high, which will strengthen the dollar and pump $12Bn back into the US economy. 

    DZZ/Patrick – I expected to hold $875, at least for a bounce so yes, I’d take the profits soon.  I have to start looking at playing these guys, gold is always fun to play!

    Oil broke below $135, heading to $134!  XOM not liking it though…

    Wow, there goes $134 already – this is fun!

    DE – I like them but I’m still worried about a commodity collapse.  They haven’t broke below the 200 dma (where they are now) since Summer ’06 but that’s when they usually bottom (August) and that’s what I’d want to wait and see.

    Greg – You do realize the QID puts pay when the Nas goes up right?

    JRCC – If oil goes down, coal goes down so I would just roll the caller up to the July 40s for $2 and leave yourself very well protected. 

    Wow JB – so much wrong with what you are saying.  Do you know this administration began a campaign to "increase homeownership" even though homeownership was already at record levels or that the Fed dropped rates to unsustainably low levels and then the Fed Chair told people that adjustable rate mortgages were a good way to buy a home.  Of course the banks were to blame too but it’s supposed to be the governement’s job to protect people from bad business practices – not team up with the bad businesses to screw people over.  Oh, and don’t even get me started on the Draconian bankruptcy laws they rammed through Congress that made all this possible as there’s no point in ruining a borrowers life if he has a way out – Bush et al made sure there is no escape for people whose lives have been destroyed by debt, which gave the banks the confidence to lend to all those marginal consumers. 

    AAPL/Guru – I don’t know that they stay at $185 but I do think they have a lot of trouble breaking $190 and I can roll my callers to the July $190s or $195s and I’m damn sure I want protection for a retest of $200 so that’s how I end up covered.

    Rules for calls/Go – I don’t have "rules" per se.  We roll out when the deal on the longer call is better than the one we have but for LEAP plays I like to have at least 6 months left so by next month we will be pretty much all in 2010s.

  94. damn, missed selling the june puts on that spike down.

  95. JB – I agree. People are stupid. But the banks shouldn’t have encourage such a low teaser rate to begin with. What could you expect? They knew people would default, it’s a cheap way for banks to get real estate in a booming industry. They did not realize that the top would be so soon however, and hence the problem we’re in now.

  96. Phil,

    Will this be the next day the DOW gains and the Nas loses?
    Is it possible that the Nas turns intraday or will it change over 1-2 days?

    BA looks like it is going to break up soon

  97. u changed the subject u said ,The United States throwing people out out of their houses, you and I are the United States and we didn’t throw anyone out. People have been losing home for as long as there have been homes, the lending companys made bad loans to put a point on it . You should put the blame on the people who gave the loans to familys that couldn’t afford them. My heart goes out to anyone who has lost a home but dont blame "our "country for what Wall Street Bankers did.

  98. Phil,

    I also have AAPL covered with the Jun185 and thinking it also having problems to move over 185.37$
    I really hope my cover expire worthless, there are nice premiums.

  99. Oil goes up, VLO goes down. Oil goes down VLO still goes down. Urgghhh!!!

  100. Bakkens oil plays—- NFX, CLR don’t like the downgrade

  101. sold USO 100 June puts against leap puts

  102. Phil – Your proposals make too much sense.
    They’d never be passed in Congress ! ! !

  103. I don’t know, maybe I am weird but I really hate blaming people or administrations.  It seems like we don’t get anywhere playing the blame game when instead, we should be figuring out solutions.  I don’t like where we are as a country but can’t we put more effort into fixing things instead of trying to figure out whose fault it is?
    I off my soapbox.  Back to the market.

  104. Phil: yes I understand how the QIDs work, I am in the QQQQ puts at the moment not the QID puts.  I did make that mistake once previously in my haste to enter an order.  I am nearly ready to dump out of the QQQQ puts as well now if the Q’s cant hold at the 20EMA on the 30 min chart.

  105. thanks kwan…im pretty drunk right now (sacasm font)

  106. likewoods,
    Wouldn’t it be convenient if every little box in our lives was self-contained and had no impact on anything else.  In the spirit of "Personal Accountability" I am responsible along with the rest of Americans for tolerating 8 years of this administration.  It’s too easy to simply blame Citibank and Goldman Sachs.  Everyone wants to assign blame, as if somehow our job is done once we have a scapegoat.  America used to be a country of great solutions, that’s what we need to focus on again.

  107. Xian – The <lack> of response. I’ll agree with you there…while I don’t think a homeowner bailout is appropriate, there has to be a middle ground somewhere where we can help folks keep their homes, but do so without forcing someone else  to pay for it.

  108. I don’t trust this oil down move at all. Only meaningful drop will be if it drops atleast 15 dollars in a single day.
    Bought back USO June 95 puts for 0.15 this morning, and sold 100 puts for 0.75.
    Short 100 and 105 puts now

  109. USO- volume 9.9M in 3hrs. 50 DMA = 9.7M…the roach motel phil!!

  110. Alex – I think we’re looking OK today, as good as we can be on a big commodity sell-off.  We just need the SOX to get back in gear but solars are dragging them down right now.

    AAPL/Alex – It doesn’t matter that the $185s expire worthless, as long as we can roll them to July $195s at no cost, that’s a huge victory.

    VLO – If I thought it was going up right away I would have bought June calls…

    Yo – I think there are many excellent solutions, I was in Washington last summer and sat down with people who had a dozen things that would have reduced the price of oil.  Without bi-partisan backing nothing gets done and as long as you have a group of Senators willing to fillabuster anything they don’t like, nothing continues to get done.  The effort that is put into NOT fixing things in Washington is astounding because most of the money is raised from people who want to maintain the status quo.  If you "fix" energy by promoting alt energy, you are kicking your oil donors out the door and then you have to deal with a whole new bunch of contributors, which is a huge hassle for an incumbant….

    Good Greg, just checking because the way you said it made me nervous!

  111. Phil, are you going to roll TXN and MDT leaps to 2010′s next month.  (i.e. do you still like these enough to roll them and keep’em)  Thanks

  112. PCX – Phil, did you execute that roll from jun130 to jul135 for ~6? Or hold off with the price drop (pcx now 136.26). And the jul130 putter sale?

  113. AAPL 2 day – so filled the gap close from 2 days ago (orange dotted line) and R1 at the same time… where to next?  Volume decent considering?  This all reminds me of the day after AAPL reported earnings… Chart FYI

  114. Phil:  The special interests in Washington have figured out that internet shopping has made it so much easier to buy a Senator or Congressman now.  It’s like Ebay for lobbyists.   ;-)

  115. GOOG-nice comeback

  116. bbd- have you talked to your friend with the Iowa farm ground lately? Lots of acres of corn here under water. Too late for more corn, it will probably be replanted to soybeans. Very bullish for corn I would think.

  117. X – lucky and stupid! Ordered sell of jun170 puts we played back on 6/3 for $4 but realized yesterday it didn’t fill and the price was down around $2. That’s the stupid part, lucky part is it’s now back to $3.4 with the drop today. Phew. Second stupidist thing is long calls I had in one account and accidentally wrote the callers in another. No wonder my margin looked screwy.

  118. JB- i want a middle ground too and agree it should b very different from a blank check bailout b/c i share ur conservative opinion in terms of moral hazard and market distortions.

    yet, i think the idea of being citizens (paying taxes, obey the law etc) is that we solve big problems collectively (good roads/schools, public safety, etc) and that means some citizens will b "forced" to go along w/ something they dont agree with.

    personally, im ok w/  bailing out a bunch of our homegrown suckers (and their sucker lenders).

    but i dont like subsidizing wheat that’s sent to underdeveloped markets to undercut the native industry (very radical form of free market distortion)- but i got to anyway.

    i also hate spending untold billions on a "joint strike fighter" (such a cool name) to "defend" ourselves from countries we sell F-16s to.

    the difference b/t these 2 examples and the mortgage crisis is in the word "crisis" (ie abnormal situation)- where as the other 2 r just business as usual.

    maybe we will have to send subsidized wheat to poor countries and build crazy killer planes, but it would b during a crisis (ie dictator w/ killer "whatevers" starving his people).

  119. Mark, R3 for Apple :) ?

  120. kwan- no sarcasm in the thanks, my bro in science.

  121. PCX – that roll from jun130 to jul135 is spread 6.8/8.9

  122. FSLR just jumped. Having to watch those puts now.

  123. Yes I did on Saturday.  He says $6 easy, do not be surprised at $7

  124. JB- i sort of got off track there…sorry.

  125. fredrang- you don’t seem to find it hard to scapegoat Bush when there are 435 people in the house and senate . I think Phil is right and you are also in some ways, I just get tired of all the Bush bashing, he does not have a magic wand to fix anything . The congress is not easy to push around, they dont even listen if it doesn’t help them get re-elected. wished i’d stayed in bed today. lol

  126. Yev – LOL.  Man it’s gotta get to R2 of 189.9567 first brutha!

  127. Big boys lunch hour is over, lets see which way thay take us this afternoon?

  128. fellas

    im lookin for a general rule of thumb here. Lets say i am iffy about which way the mkt is going to go. but my portfolio is pretty bulllish (1/2 cover in most instances). Do i need to still have some sort of protection like qqqq puts and if so what kind of percentage am i lookin at? loll i know its a very gray area question and no definate ansewre but just lookin for some adivce

  129. PHIL
    still have the sept 10 on TASR. Should roll down to 7.50 or 5.00? Good report in NYT today on study analyzing the use of TASERS in the big apple. Suggested by RAND corp. that it be done more often in lieu of bullets. Sounds like a no brain-er to me but what do I know. Last time I checked nobody was willing to pay me for my thoughts/opinion!!
    Thanks. DUDE

  130. phil/alt energy plan that oil corp will tolerate- take a bit of ur killer profit and the govt matches it 101%. this money sets up a GSE that’s like the manhattan project for alt energy.

    the patents are shared 49/51- so the govt controls the uses (of course, this assumes no undue lobby influence)

    i dont know….

  131. Mark, yeah, I thought I’d add some optimism, but looking at it today, seems like a slow trickle today up the EMA(8) on a 3 day

  132. …woops, i meant 102%

  133. bbd- wish I could see a way to make money on that without trading futures. Too wild for me. There are companies making lots of money on this. Cargill is a huge multi-national private company. I know a retired person that gets a profit sharing check as part of her retirement from them. It has been a nearly constant amount for years. She got the check this year and took it to the bank and looked at her deposit slip and only then realized there was one more zero than usual. It was 10X the usual amount.

  134. large seller of treasuries right now moving to equities fyi… let’s see if it get’s it going or one time deal…

  135. Phil,
    PG is on a tear, but also looks like its on a longer term decline.  I am also thinking about taking profits here…

  136. USO – huge volume on sell off from $110 to $108 but someone was buying.  Meanwhile, take a look at this chart of USO vs., WTIC and you can pull the time out to 600 days and see why it is so great to take a leap put on USO, over time, the fees from all the churning done by the fund eat into the value and it pulls further and further away from the true price of oil.  Currently USO has lost about 30% to the value of oil since 2006 so oil would have to gain about 25% for our 2010 leap puts to lose money.  On the downside, USO still loses 25% due to fees but also will lose the actual value so it’s a great  risk/’reward play (and, of course, you can sell a few puts along the way). 

    Rolling Leaps – I’ll be rolling pretty much everyone I intend to keep next month.  TXN for sure, probably MDT too but I take that very seriously and take a fresh study of each position in the LTP.

    PCX – I’m still waiting, as I said my preference is to exit at $9.90 and be done with it but it doesn’t look like we’re going to make it today so I’m selling the $130 puts for $5 and rolling out to the Julys for $2.50.  XXX

    AAPL – The $185s I sold about $3 ago have gained .85 since I sold them.  Not too bad…

    TASR/Ed – I am amazed at this sell-off.  You are better off spending money to roll back in time at this point because it may take longer than we thought to come back.  I will stay with these guys through 2010 and I don’t even have the heart to sell covers at this point.

    Oil at $131.55 – that’s rally fuel!

  137. Phil,

    Would you sell now the QID puts in the 10K? or do we wait for a bounce in Asia and Europe tomorrow and a rally in the Nas?


  138. Phil,
    QID puts, any liking today? Also NDAQ?  Since crude is coming down.

  139. i had a june 130/135 calender on pcx. Buy out my caller roll to 125 and roll myself to july 130′s

  140. Wow, now PCX breaks down!

    PG – It’s a "safety" stock, I think there will be better things to invest in.  I’d wait to see if they break the 50 dma at $67.11 first, there’s no reason they can’t sitll gain a couple of bucks from here. 

    QID – As we are way ahead in that portfolio I think it’s a reasonable chance to take.  The Nas has a lot of catching up to do.

    NDAQ is a good one Malai!  The July $32.50s are a good deal at $1.65 as we can turn around later and sell current $32.50s for a nice price.  XXX

  141. Phil,
    Regarding USO and the other XTF’s, I suppose high expense ratios favor put-buying over calls as a general rule.  Do you agree?

  142. It’s only one state (WA), but this dinky gas purchase chart I saw in the local paper in nice to see.

  143. Phil sorry my above post doesn’t make sense. I have a june 130/135 vertical. Do I want to roll to july 130 and toll my caller to june 125 or take a chance and keep the 130′s hoping to catch some more premium from him??

  144. USO down 2 bucks with less an hour for NYMEX close, very likely that the bastards pull it unchanged at the close or even green today.

  145. if CY drops below 25.5, then watch out below.

  146. Phil – For the first time I have intermittent inconvenience with refreshing my IE7/Vista. Basically after refreshing the display shows your first headline of today. After shutting down and restarting IE it usually works fine for 1-1.5 hrs then it stucks again. Not such a big deal, just inconvenience to press the “END” bottom on different keyboard. I don’t know your tech support line so I am wasting everybody time with this post. Please forward this msg to the tech support.
    REF – PCX. I have given a fair warning to all that I have sold June 130 putters. This was sure prediction that stock will go lower.

  147. If I weren’t knee deep in USO, I would short the June 110 puts right here for a day trade

  148. MCD- im loving it

    C- i bottom ticked it yesterday - hopefully this sticks, likely not.

    USO- volume has been suspicious all day

  149. PCX – Phil, you had jun130 puts and you’re ending up in the july 130s? June is 5.6/6.3, july is 11.5/12.7. So you’re selling for ~5 & buying for ~12 for net debit of 7? Is that your $5 + $2.5? Sorry..

  150. xian – no worries!  I had no trouble parsing the sarcasm in your reply.

  151. hey xian, just getting in front of the computer today.  Been feeling super bearish all day, and voila’, AAPL up $4+.  I don’t like this move on a LEH upgrade.  If LEH owns them, they probably need to sell them.  I would rather turn bullish at 194.  Afraid to short them.  Afraid to buy them.  So, I am sitting on a lot of cash.  THAT USUALLY MARKS THE BOTTOM.  When I am scared to hold them, they usually start their move.  Chart looks terrible though.  I think I would rather be long AMZN right now.  Not getting enough time to research.  Actually, I looked again and now I don’t like AMZN.  Good on the weekly, bad on the daily.  I am not looking at intraday charts anymore.  And I am not daytrading.  

    I told everyone who follows me that they should sell their AAPL stock or put in stops.  I know oil is going to climax or slowly climb, neither will help.  We haven’t started hearing the presidential policy debates, but those will be adding volatility to the market.  Basically, I am totally sidelined right now.  I see the LT charts and fundamentals as very bullish, but I can’t believe the worst is over.  BUT, THAT USUALLY MEANS THAT IT IS.  It is hard when your best contrary indicator is yourself.  You always ask yourself, could I be more worried.  Maybe this isn’t the bottom of my worrying.  

    AAPL is going to sell 15 million iphones this year (if they can get them made) but Jobs seriously has to answer whether he has cancer.  He looks like he is dying.  It is entirely possible that trying to get 2.0 out has been really taxing, but nothing accounts for that kind of weight loss except illness.  
    Dollar strength is great.  Techs haven’t really sold down like the DJIA and SPX have been doing for a month.  I guess I would be long DIA here rather than long Q’s.  I am just all over the place and out of time for now.  Good luck everyone.

  152. Totally blind today. Fiber for most of downtown Houston out today. No ETA for return to service. Bad for businesses and residents (and traders) operating from iPhone today.

    Phil – Any thoughts on this AAPL runup? Don’t have charts so its hard to see, but thinking that charts aren’t looking so ugly today. Unfortunately I’m still short with the JUL 170 puts. Any suggestions about AAPL direction? Thanks.

  153. Film:  nothing wrong with holding cash, sounds pretty smart right now if you ask me.

  154. PCX – btw, I did the roll to jun135s from earlier so just long those now.

  155. thanks film- jump in. the water’s fine and MJ will short u some USO puts…LOL (palin’ around MJ)

  156. MJ’s puts- OOOO…forget it, he’s dealing JUN

  157. xian/mcd – loving it but didn’t you just cover like I did? Be nice to be selling those now!

  158. jobs illness- i didnt hear the webcast, but i’ll get my mom to listen to it- she’s had a freaky way of diagnosing illness by hearing peoples’ voices and seeing their eyes…only on strangers, though.

    but i think maybe she needs to b in the same room…that’s going to b hard to set- she’s super busy LOL

  159. YoY declines in gasoline sales in the US started in July 2007 and have been increasing.

    Download this into Excel, apply a YoY change formula to column C, and you will see that gasoline deliveries have had YoY declines every month since Nov 2006.

    Download Series History

  160. mck- i covered 2/3, but the delta makes it 62% covered.

  161. Speaking of storms – my kids had a first yesterday, their school was cancelled due to storm damage in the neighborhood of their school.  Too many trees and branches down in the streets, taking down power lines and other damage.  Also, trees with partially broken branches that authorities worried may yet fall down on some kid’s head as they make their way to school.  We also had some sever flooding around the midwest and in my state.  Lots of basements flooded and sewer backups – yuck!  About 100 miles from me, a good sized lake that was created by putting a dam on a river, cut a flood channel around the dam and the entire lake has drained out, taking a number of homes, roads, docks and boats with it.

  162. Obama Says `Foolish’ to Press Tax Boosts Regardless of Economy

    June 10 (Bloomberg) — Barack Obama, seeking today to dispel John McCain‘s claim that his proposals would burden all types of taxpayers, said his proposed tax increases for wealthier Americans would depend on economic conditions.

    “I can’t predict yet where the economy is going to be” next year, Democratic presidential contender Obama said today during a news briefing in St. Louis. “So it would be foolish for me to say I’ve got my economic plan and we are going forward with it regardless of what circumstances are.”

    The Illinois senator defended his economic plans an hour after Republican presidential rival John McCain told a national small business conference that Obama’s proposals to increase dividend and capital gains taxes would result in tax increase for Americans of all backgrounds.

    “Seniors, parents, small-business owners and just about everyone who has even modest investment in the market” would see a tax increase, McCain, an Arizona senator, told the National Federation of Independent Business in Washington.

    Obama shot back that his tax plan “would cut taxes for 95 percent of workers.”

    On capital gains, Obama suggested that he wouldn’t boost the tax rate above about 20 percent, the same limit former rival Hillary Clinton, a New York senator, proposed. Earlier this year, Obama declined to make such pledge.

  163. Oil down iNTC and market down too .. what’s the new now, just profitr taking .. ?? not much profit to take indeed..

  164. Phil
    Time to DD on XOM 90′s?

  165. Xian – One thing I think we could all agree on, if the conservatives and liberals on this board ran the congress we would get much more done than the current folks!! Too many folks up there are opposed to ideas from the other side just because the idea comes from the other side!

  166. HK-Always sell on Cramers PLUG

  167. AAPL – Film, good comments. From memory, these levels are at about 5dma or slightly above. Do you see this as a test or an attempt to break upward?

    Does anyone know how to refresh page on iPhone without going all the way to the top of the page. Total pain in the ass on an iPhone.

  168. Richard – Kwan answered you on Op’s site FYI:

    "site/iphone refresh – click the permalink link for the last comment on the page, refresh the page and when you refresh, wait for the browser to jump from the top to the bottom and touch your finger to the screen (and scroll slightly if need be) before it finishes reloading to make it stay put."


  169. Phil
    What you have been saying was just repeated on CNBC, 9,500 permits to drill on 30 million acres and the oil companies aren’t drilling.  Permits were defined as have cleared all regs including environmental so they can put iron in the ground.

  170. Optrader -

    As frustrating as it may be – the link you posted earlier today no longer works properly – you can see the portfolio but none of the member posts.

    Please post a link again

  171. Xian: For Obama to win the primary he had to zig to the left of Hillary to win the DEM base.  Now that he is the DEM nominee he has to zag back to the right to try to win the moderate middle.  This is not change, this is same old same old.  The script is always the same, just the actors change.

  172. JB- i dig it man- there’s a tool for every job- and the discourse on this board is very civil.

    richard/AAPL/5MA- maybe this helps, right now its flat, but over the last 4 days it’s down

  173. edro – try this for Op’s site.  See if that works…

  174. greg- very true. i dont trust any of those people, not even obama- but i do think he’s the least likely to really scuttle this ship.

    his speeches r great- but not "independence day"  great.

  175. EDU – Is this a reaction to the overnight selloff in these Chinese markets? Would you say this is a good entry point for July 65s?

  176. xian, LOL
    As Phil pointed out, it is better to buy those Leap puts on USO. I would be very aggressive in selling atleast the June puts, because I just don’t think they will let crude fall. They desperately want to take it to 150 and even 200.

  177. billbigd, I thought Cramer was a genius with excellent stock picks, LOL

  178. USO/Go – Oh yes, they just grind down over time so it’s annoying to own long calls. 

    PCX/Shahir – If you have the $135 put and sold the $130 put and it’s heading lower, then you clear $5 and you’re done.  If you want to extend it, you can roll back to the July $130 puts yourself.

    Looks like we’re closing NYMEX at about $131.50

    PCX/MCK – roughly that, the sale of the $530 puts pays for the roll.  If you could have gotten out even then getting out even was the way to go anyway.

    AAPL – Well if Jobs has cancer that would suck but otherwise they should hit $200 around earnings and it will take good earnings to get them over that hump.

    XOM $90s – yes to a DD here!   XXX

  179. To knowledgeable traders – questions about DD and rolling down or straight roll down. I am under impression that there is a perception that it is advantageous to DD (to reduce basis) than to roll down to new lower strike price. My paper simulation did not shows any advantage even after omitting the transaction cost.
    Details: I have fraction of the position in XLF =  40Jan09 $26Call with the debit of $6440. After DD to 80Jan09 $26C @1.34 my debit w/b $11800 after roll down to 80Jan09 $23C (no shaving) my debit w/b $22200. On the other hand straight 2x roll from 40Jan09 $26C to 80Jan09 $23C will result with Db=$22040 with much less hassle. Please tell me what I am doing wrong? Thx.

  180. MJ- im a puzzled on "their" intention- but "they" got a lot of new USD rhetoric and the election environment to deal w/.

    like i said: puzzled- yet i do think 200 is only possible w/ iran being attacked or something

  181. jobs- wow!!! he looks like he’s been surviving on wheat grass shots.

  182. xian, last month CNBC had some special coverage of those NYMEX crude options which created a significant bullish support for crude. I would expect the same thing going on this month. Less likely that they would have a sell off before this month’s expiration

  183. Drilling permits – There’s something you can cure with a penstroke.  Either drill your land or it goes up for auction to someone who wants to drill.  We could double US production in 18 months.

    EDU – I think there is a mindset now with this stock that people all over China have only been learning English ahead of the Olympics like it’s some kind of fad that will die out.  I really doubt that’s true and I do like them down here but it will probably take a good earnings report to turn them back up.

    DD/Roll/Bro – As with everything else, it depends.  Take the XOMs for example, we could double down at .65 from a .90 entry to get a .78 avg or we could roll down for $2.  Obviously it’s much more expensive to roll down but the rolled position will gain more on the way up than the out of the money calls. 

    Don’t forget to get 1/2 out of XOM even.   XXX

  184. Film / Jobs: He kept quiet about his cancer in the 90′s, only making it public when he went in for surgery.  Doubt he’d talk about health issues now.

  185. MJ/JUN expiry- thanks for ur feedback. i agree: JUN is sealed for oil bulls.

  186. correction, Jobs was diagnosed with cancer in 2003.
    He talks about it here during a commencement address at Stanford n 2004.

  187. Phil:  Not according to the President of the Sierra Club.  He says that you could not increase production in the USA to make a hill of beans of difference even if you opened up all the current off limits areas on and off shore.  

    I do agree with you that if they don’t drill then take the permits away and give to someone else who will drill.  I also think the oil companies should be paying a royalty on all the oil they pump from the ground on the from end, not as a tax on their profits on the back end.  I even like your plan to give tax disincentives and incentives based on the milage your car gets.  I am OK with user type taxes.  I am not OK with taxes that are a disincentive to saving, investing and risk taking.

  188. Xian – AAPL 5dma – thanks. :-)

  189. Thanks Phil. There are typos in my message, one typo change the what I meant.  Msg is "… I am under impression that there is a perception that it is advantageous to DD (to reduce basis) than to roll down to new lower strike price.” I wanted to say “I am under impression that there is a perception that it is advantageous to DD (to reduce basis) then to roll down to new, lower strike price.” Basically I decided that I will double my position and I will lower my strike price. Question is about tactics how to do it?

  190. Since when did this guy Scott become the program director?  This hour has mostlly
    been about him touting his holdings.  He even recommended the Congressman to talk
    about Obama’s energy plan.  Lovefest now with Cramer.   UGH ! ! !

  191. Phil
    Tks for the 1/2 sell on XOM, Did not think of that.

  192. Bro – As a very broad rule of thumb if I am planning on sticking with a position (like I call a bottom on GOOG at $555 but intend to keep buying no matter how low it gets) then generally I’m going to enter with about 20% of my max spending and then the pattern is to DD when I am down 30-40% and roll when I can get $10 in position for $4.50 or less.  Once I am 65% invested in the positons it’s time to think I may be wrong and then my next move is likley to be selling a call/put to someone else in the front month, and then retreating to a longer contract – like we just did with PCX. 
    I want to be very clear that these are not rules you just follow on anything.  There are 100 plays I make that I simply kill when they go against me.  You guys just notice the ones I stick with because we end up talking about it for a week straight!

    BIDU $330s for $11.25 10 in DTP  XXX

  193. Phil – Thx. Now I am clear and I appreciate the explanation.

  194. Just figured out why my Tradestation platform runs so slow.  Turns out that there are no calculations done on my end.  If I have a chart with GOOG, 3 ma’s, MACD, and OBV, that is 6 streams of data that they are sending.  To top it off, they have all these cool workspace tabs which give you windows inside a desktop.  Well, if I have GOOG quotes in three workspaces, they send it 3 times.  Is that just about the dumbest thing you have ever heard?  I can’t see how that is necessary.  Wouldn’t they be able to drastically reduce their bandwidth requirements not to mention their processing?  I am sure there is a very good reason that I am not thinking of.

  195. Phil, for fun – any thoughts on oil inventories tomorrow?  Predictions?

  196. MOS-running

  197. 1/2 sell – When you are doing a mo play like XOM and you DD, then taking 1/2 out leaves you with the original amount at a lower strike.  If it sells off again, you can double up again and end up with an even lower strike.  Rangy plays like XOM can let you do this over and over again and end up being very rewarding on a breakout (as long as it’s in the right direction!).

    FSLR is the comeback kid today.

    MOS just made a new high, very impressive on such a rough day.

    Qs look like they are heading back to test 49, would be great if they break it (Nas 2,475).

    Woo hoo on XOM!

  198. What did you do to FSLR – I only went away an hour !!

  199. Richard, if I stuck with my thesis from 2-3 weeks ago, we should break up higher.  But, just can’t get on board with that now.  Call it brains or fear, but I am too nervous.  Same with GOOG.  I should be buying lots of leaps now, but I haven’t yet.  I can’t believe we are not going to test 48 on the Q’s again.  If we hold that, I would probably get bullish.  

    Orion, I think his health will get lots of coverage now because of his past and people saying that a CEO’s health should be disclosed.  At the very least, it will prompt that discussion.  His appearance is going to beg those questions.

  200. PCX – ok, so did everyone sell putters? The thing appears to be teetering. I just full covered jun135 puts by selling jun130s but it doesn’t feel like the brightest move.

  201. Just had O2 (Uk network for iPhone) offering a no cost upgrade on the iPhone if I renew my monthly contract. So under the new revenue model what does Apple gain from that ???

  202. Phil, you like gold down here?

  203. mck, on PCX, I sold the June 125′s instead of the 130′s, just for a little more breathing room. I did not get the hod, but did get $4.00. From a technical pov, the chart looks like it wants to continue this downward move, and I would personally guess it will test $124 over the next 5 sessions.  The biggest mistake I made in this trade, and I do know better,  was in effectively shorting a new high. It’s best to avoid shorting new highs, and only short failed new highs, like we have today.

  204. Will many banks including GS dramatically reduce dividend?

  205. is there any better way to short bonds other than buying puts on TLT?
    With rampant inflation all over the world(double digits in India, China, etc) bonds have miles and miles to fall.

  206. Oil inventories – I think they overproduced product so maybe flat oil and too much gasoline.  Distillates are a wild-card.

    DDs – See it’s not really doubling down when I take some XOMs at .90 and then more at .65 – it’s just scaling into a position but it allows me to take a nice .18 profit at .95, rather than sit here and wonder if I should take a nickel profit off the table into tomorrow’s report…

    EK is really getting hammered.  Have to take another look at them to see if things are really that bad….

    PCX/MCK – as long as netting $5 on the spread is a win then it’s a good placeholder through tomorrow.

    O2/DB – Apple gets paid for the phone either way, it’s the phone companies that are making the deals (although I imagine Apple has some concession).  At $200 a phone, this thing may outsell the RAZR, which did well over 50M a year.  Seriously – do people want phones?  Do they want GPS?  Do they want mobile internet?  Do they want an IPod (that plays videos too)?  I don’t think you need to be a marketing genius to see the potential here…

  207. yogi/pcx – I’m with you on the new high. But  went with the doubles all the way up so it "should" pan out. Probably a good move to lock your spread at 10 as you did instead of 5, but I suppose I can roll around. Damn thing sure seems top heavy so I’m tempted to drop half the putters to let it breathe a bit.

  208. DB, O2 still has to buy the handset from AAPL and at full price, essentially they are opting to give you the $199 phone for free, expecting you to surf your bank account dry, it’s a bean-counter risk-reward model I think and I think they will be very happy in 2 years that they spent $399 to get the phone from AAPL and essentially give you $199 up-front to use their network .

  209. the new iphone…  in the US… it is my understanding that you cannot buy it w/o purchasing a  two year contract from ATT

  210. T- 50M people surfing at anytime….BOOM! GOES THE DYNAMITE

  211. surprised that no one has mentioned the selloff on X.

  212. Gold – this was my pick for a bounce ($875) but if oil starts falling apart gold will follow.

    Shorting bonds I don’t play with. 

    Everything McCain says about energy is production oriented, nothing about conserving.  It will take 20 years to produce the amount of energy we could conserve in 3.

  213. Phil – I know you bought back your SNE caller.  In my case I have JUN/JUL 50 spread with $650 buying power.  Should I use it to buy back the caller @0.65?

  214. patter day trading – interested in views on this as I just qualified (ha!). Just got off the phone with a rep at FMR who admitted they didn’t know what I could/couldn’t trade the rest of the day to avoid a day trade call. It’s not rocket science, but there’s no way from their GUI to tell what you have or don’t have so it’s like flying blind. Call them and they echo the same. Someone please tell me OXPS or TOS has a better system for easily telling what you can/can’t do in your account without having to build your own spreadsheet!

  215. iPhone. All O2 wants me to do is renew my contract at the same rate. Unlimited Data downloads on my contract are free. (Fair use) I dont know if they intend to charge for data on the new phone but the initial offer seems to say its exactly the same contract. So it seems to be costing O2 whatever the cost of the iPhone is (£99) to get me to renew an 18 month contract. I’ll let you know in July what the terms are. I agree with Phil on the benefits of the new phone. I’m looking for the improved data speeds because unless you are wi-fi connected its very slow.

  216. AAPL – Film, thanks for your thoughts. Without access to my charts today, hard to offer any more input. I’ve been shorting/covering at 188-190, but I can’t make any sense of today’s move. I still don’t see a trigger one way or the other until closer to earnings. Admittedly a little more concerned about an upside break today than before.

  217. mck – Etrade will give you a yellow warning box when you try to submit an order that will trigger the pattern day trade rule and 90 day restriction.  I just keep putting in orders until I get the yellow box, then I am done buying for the day.  I believe I can still sell to close positions though.

  218. mck- ToS keeps track of your daily buying power, right there in your status screen. Also, Optrader has mentioned a couple of times he’s called them to have them reset his buying power.

  219. Phil:

    What is your read on ISRG based on the recent pullback?  Any change is warranted?

  220. Andy/T/iPhone – I believe that is exactly the motivation of T.  I saw somewhere (but can’t find it now) that data usage is x% higher on an iPhone compared to other phones.  Too bad, T is raising the unlimited monthly data fee from $20 to $30, which means the consumer is actually paying $40 more over 2 years, after netting out the "$200 discount" on the new iPhone.  Surprised that T is down close to 10% post iPhone 3G announcement.

  221. Does BA trade higher once they demonstrate power-on and that they can now keep a schedule?

  222. Jobs said Cisco (CSCO) would be providing added security for enterprise customers, and added that 35 percent of the Fortune 500 are now testing the iPhone.

  223. T – oops, sorry.  down just under 4% from yesterday

  224. phil/FSLR- what do u think about it being the canary in the coal mine for oil?

  225. GOP senators spike windfall profits tax on Big Oil

  226. Phil,

    do you see into this closing anything? It is a better finish than the open but no tech leadership so far.

    Have a nice day all

  227. From Bloomberg on demand destruction:

    The International Energy Agency cut its forecast for global oil demand for a fifth month as record prices dented consumption. The IEA reduced its 2008 outlook by about 70,000 barrels a day to 86.77 million barrels a day from 86.84 million last month, the Paris-based agency said today in its monthly report. That leaves demand growth for this year at 0.9 percent.

    It appears we’re seeing govt agencies adjusting down energy consumption estimates as they adjust down other economic estimates.

  228. SNE/Sohrab – with not much money it seems a little risky to me, especially with them far out of the money.  I wouldn’t take the chance.

    Pattern trading – Just don’t buy and sell the same security on the same day I think…

    ISRG – I’m just using them as an income producer, nothing more.

    T – I mentioned that yesterday.  People think T is "paying" $200 to sell IPhones because they have no concept of financing.  I wanted to give T a day or two but I certainly do want to buy them here.

    FSLR – I can’t believe traders of that stock are smart enough to follow on anything.  All the solars do play off high oil prices though..

    Closing was perfect – another day of consolidation on the Dow.  Tomorrow is a big Which Way Wednesday though as that will be it for the week I think, whichever way we end up going will get followed through and then a likely flatline into expirations.

  229. T: Significant retail store construction program.  3 years, new construction, relocation, and design refresh.  At a time when others are cutting back retail locations and focusing on internet.  AAPL expanding retail locations as well.  Interesting that no one has tried to copy them, most productive $ per sq ft in the industry last time I checked.  Even if you don’t like them, you have to admit they know how to sell stuff.

  230. Phil, you recall the Iraq for sale video, guess what BBC Panorama are now showing a program, where they are showing the biggest heist in history, about war profiteers by independent contractors in Iraq…

  231. Petroleum Exports
    Look at all the petrol products we export while we have record imports.

  232. phil/MCD- macke makes a point about the FX benefit going away as USD rallies- im thinking it’ll b a LT buying opportunity.

  233. Goldman, Citigroup Options Foreshadow Dividend Cuts

    June 10 (Bloomberg) — Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp. may announce “dramatic” dividend cuts, according to a Deutsche Bank AG analysis of options trading and prices.

    “The option market is pricing in a dividend cut for virtually every major U.S. financial services company,” derivatives strategists Scott Weiner and Chris Hauck wrote.

    Goldman, the world’s biggest securities firm, may reduce its dividend by 26 cents to 9 cents, while Bank of America, the second-largest U.S. bank by assets, may cut its dividend by the same amount to 38 cents. Citigroup, the biggest U.S. bank, may cut its dividend by 23 cents to 9 cents.

  234. Phil – just wondering if you had a response to my questions about the hedge fund.  Sorry to keep bugging you, I know you’re busy.
    Also – I wanted to ask you what you thought about GTLS.  Looks like a good long-term buy, though it may be due for a pullback.  Also – GE looks good to me as a long-term buy, what do you think?

  235. Exports – it’s interesting how much distillate we shoved out of the country while racking up draw-downs that drove up the pricing…

    Dollar rally – Have to watch out for carry trade fluctuations as well.  So many people on the wrong side of a dollar bet it will be very funny if we do break up.  We did crack 73.50 today but still below May high of 73.89 and 74 will be tough if we don’t punch it tomorrow.

    Iraq profiteering – Bush should take off the gag order now, he’s probably going to need to pardon Cheney before leaving office so he may as well let them go after him now.

  236. ———————--
    "While the carrier price for the phone is not known, it is speculated to be as much as $450 a phone. Apple’s cost, estimated in July by iSuppli for the first iPhone, was pegged at $265"
    If AAPL makes $200 profit per iPhone and sells 45 million next year,…then watch out DM

  237. Phil,we export over 60 million barrels of finished product yearly   mostly in the form of diesel

  238. It’s about time for Reinharden’s semi-annual posting deluge on AAPL, isn’t it? And wasn’t Beth supposed to be back by now? I need to hear how well her portfolios have done, helps keep my ego in check. ;-)

  239. rD2.0 – This decade is AAPL’s time to shine.

  240. Cramer: The Oil Market Is Broken
    I think this market is made up of people who put little down and then are constantly being margined out. Raising the margin would have a huge benefit to the world’s economy. That this isn’t being done is bordering on criminal.
    I don’t believe that speculator hoarding or pension fund investing in commodities is behind these surges and volatility. I think it is a problem with the market, particularly the oil market, itself. The game has too few players to make it orderly. It is too fractured and confused, without depth. And the margin is way too low, so anyone can play, including those who have no hope of ever having enough money to stay in this game without wrecking the pricing.

  241. i like this PC…. has touchscreen also..
    HP TouchSmart update tackles iMac, Gateway…

  242. Hi all.  In Manila at a cafe.  My PC wireless did not work when I went to the airport yesterday morning so had 2 days of not know where things were going.  My driver is corrupt, I think.  PLus screwed up my pc trying to fix.  Anyone know how to get the programs to load in Vista.  I had gone in to a page and check load only estential programs in start up.  Now I cannot find where that page is located.  Anyone have a clue.     Looks like AAPL did nothing so far. My POT and MOS balanced out GS and C.    Will be happy when this exp is over so I never will have to look at TASR or CROX in my portfolio again.  I would flush them done the toilet know but that would cost me money.   Well time to figure out how to get my PC fixed.  And to think that I almost threw in my retore software but did not.

  243. Singapore – I hate Vista, refuse to use it, only XP. Can I look anything up for you?

  244. Singapore Steve,
    Does MSCONFIG still exist in Vista? In XP you could run it from the command prompt. You might also try running services.msc from the command line. I don’t use Vista, stuck with XP.

  245. mck/JB
    Thanks.  Lucky that i never made a copy of the restore program so I was able to burn one, only allow to do it once, and I reloaded my operating system. what a *(%$*(^&^^)))^!!! in the ass.  Saved my files first.  Then as it turns out, it appears to be a hardware problem with the broadcom card.  So I bought a new Nokia 3.5 G phone to connect to the internet.  That’s what I will be spending my time doing this evening over here.  At a cafe downloading the lastes Nokia Vista supported sotfware.     I did figure out the MSCONFIG thing, not very intuitive in Vista if you don’t do it very often.

  246. Uk petrol sales fall 20%. That’ll help lower the oil price. !!!!

  247. Ah DB you are such an optimist!

  248. supporting the POO

    Bush Says `All Options’ on Table Regarding Iran Nuclear Program

    June 11 (Bloomberg) — President George W. Bush said that all options remain open regarding Iran and its nuclear program after talks in Germany with Chancellor Angela Merkel.

    “All options are on the table, and my first choice is to solve this diplomatically,” Bush said today at a press conference following talks with Merkel in Meseberg, Germany.

    “If they choose to continue to be obstinate, there will be additional sanctions,” said Bush, adding that the message to Iran is there’s a better way forward for its people than isolation.

  249. Phil – Of course I’m an optimist – Why else would I have BA calls and OIH puts :-)

  250. CNBC/dean- kicking a$$ dispelling myths that dems r anti-economy

  251. POT Ceo, says next 5 years will be greatest in company history.

  252. Singapore – email me if you need anything I can provide. I know what it’s like to be cafe surfing and it can be frustrating! I’d suggest too setting up remote login for your home pc so you don’t have to worry about what you bring with you. You can do it with XP pro or vista, or even easier, a free service like logmein. Email if you need help.

  253. RMM, don’t blame me if you didn’t read what I posted on Tuesday when AAPL was at $186.  Permalink

    I like the action though and will be excited to jump in.  Tempting to grab some calls if it finishes at the LOD.  I think all these LOD closes are setting us up for a reversal.  But, since AAPL could come out this afternoon and say, "Jobs has a touch of the cancer" any positions will be OCT OTM or longer.  AAPL laid out its roadmap for world domination and everyone is happily pouncing on the Jobs impersonation of Kate Moss to drop us down because everyone has to want in now.  Like I said earlier, even Jobs dying cannot stop AAPL from $8 of earnings in 2009 and $12 in 2010.  But, I am still not really here.  Still all in cash.  And still saying the same thing I have said all week.  So, just <CTRL-F> my name once in a while if it is so important to you what I said.  That’s all I do when I am busy, to see if anyone is talking to/about me.

    Hugs and Kisses,