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Long Term Virtual Portfolio Review

By phil
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64

Hopefully this won’t come out gigantic – I’ve been having huge trouble with this format….

It’s been a very rough month and we’ve lost a bit of ground but I’m still thinking that all of our woes trace back to oil and that oil cannot go any higher because the global economy can’t afford it and, if oil can’t go any higher, then there’s no more point in speculating in it and, if there’s no point in speculating in it, then there’s nothing to support this ridiculous price which means people will begin to unwind their positions and look for places where their money will make enough to stay ahead of the inflation they caused by putting all their money into commodities.

See – simple!

Description Type Cost Basis Opened Sale Price Closed Days Gain/Loss $ %
AIG
50 Jun 2008 35.00 AIG CALL (AIGFG) SC $ 300.00 6/10/2008 $ 4,490.00   9
$ 4,190.00 93.3 %
50 Jan 2009 45.00 AIG CALL (AIGAI) LC $ 2,510.00 11/2/2007 $ 4,000.00   230
$ 1,490.00 59.4 %
I’ve been waiting for them to stop falling to roll out to the 2010s.  I still don’t trust them and it’s a free position now so I’ll just wait a bit.
$ 5,680.00 202.1 %
AMZN
20 Jun 2008 85.00 AMZN CALL (ZQNFQ) SC $ 560.00 6/19/2008 $ 1,990.00   0
$ 1,430.00 71.9 %
20 Jan 2009 80.00 AMZN CALL (ZQNAP) LC $ 23,210.00 6/12/2008 $ 27,600.00   7
$ 4,390.00 18.9 %
Letting these expire and risking it naked to next week but I need to see $85 soon or I want to cover with $80s.
$ 5,820.00 24.5 %
AXP
80 Jun 2008 45.00 AXP CALL (AXPFI) SC $ 800.00 6/14/2008 $ 7,990.00   5
$ 7,190.00 90.0 %
80 Jan 2009 60.00 AXP CALL (AXPAI) LC $ 18,400.00 9/4/2007 $ 35,200.00   289
$ 16,800.00 91.3 %
Letting these expire and risking it naked to next week.  I like these as a new entry.
$ 23,990.00 124.9 %
BA
80 Jun 2008 75.00 BA CALL (BAFO) SC $ 6,800.00 6/19/2008 $ 11,990.00   0
$ 5,190.00 43.3 %
20 Jan 2010 80.00 BA CALL (WBOAP) LC $ 27,010.00 5/21/2008 $ 18,800.00   29
$ -8,210.00 -30.4 %
20 Jan 2010 85.00 BA CALL (WBOAQ) LC $ 17,010.00 4/23/2008 $ 15,200.00   57
$ -1,810.00 -10.6 %
80 Jan 2009 75.00 BA CALL (BAAO) LC $ 72,000.00 9/4/2007 $ 55,200.00   289
$ -16,800.00 -23.3 %
Keeping tight stop on 1/2 the $75 calls, will risk naked over the weekend.
$ -21,630.00 -17.6 %
BAC
80 Jun 2008 30.00 BAC CALL (BACFF) SC $ 800.00 6/19/2008 $ 6,390.00   0
$ 5,590.00 87.5 %
80 Jan 2010 25.00 BAC CALL (WBAAE) LC $ 76,010.00 4/14/2008 $ 52,800.00   66
$ -23,210.00 -30.5 %
What a catastrophe!  Oh well, we have 18 months and I’m going to see if we can put in a floor before selling.  If it goes lower, we have to just give up and cover with $27.50s and roll down. 
$ -17,620.00 -22.9 %
BHP
20 Aug 2008 100.00 BHP PUT (BHPTD) LP $ 27,210.00 5/2/2008 $ 31,000.00   48
$ 3,790.00 13.9 %
Waiting for a commodity collapse or something to go wrong with their RTP deal.
$ 3,790.00 13.9 %
BMY
160 Jun 2008 20.00 BMY CALL (BMYFD) SC $ 2,080.00 6/19/2008 $ 5,910.00   0
$ 3,830.00 64.8 %
160 Jan 2010 20.00 BMY CALL (WBMAD) LC $ 55,690.00 8/21/2007 $ 36,800.00   303
$ -18,890.00 -33.9 %
I’m hoping they bottom out at $20 so I’m waiting and seeing.  Not looking good though  but I think they are way undervalued.
$ -15,060.00 -26.1 %
BSX
30 Jun 2008 12.50 BSX CALL (BSXFV) SC $ 3,450.00 4/11/2008 $ 4,220.00   69
$ 770.00 18.2 %
50 Jan 2009 12.50 BSX CALL (BSXAV) LC $ 8,260.00 8/27/2007 $ 11,500.00   297
$ 3,240.00 39.2 %
Rolling to same July coverage.
$ 4,010.00 34.2 %
C
200 Jan 2009 17.50 C CALL (VRNAW) LC $ 112,010.00 5/8/2008 $ 88,000.00   42
$ -24,010.00 -21.4 %
100 Jan 2010 20.00 C CALL (WRVAD) LC $ 43,510.00 3/20/2008 $ 45,500.00   91
$ 1,990.00 4.6 %
I like these guys too much to cover – that’s been a mistake but I’m living with it and I doubt I’ll want to cover until we hit $22.50 at least.
$ -22,020.00 -14.2 %
CCJ
20 Jun 2008 40.00 CCJ CALL (CCJFH) SC $ 100.00 6/14/2008 $ 1,990.00   5
$ 1,890.00 95.0 %
20 Jan 2009 30.00 CCJ CALL (ZBKAF) LC $ 13,610.00 2/5/2008 $ 18,800.00   135
$ 5,190.00 38.1 %
I love these guys long term and I will buy more if they go lower.  I’m hoping to get $1.50 for the July $40s and I’ll wait as I think they are way too cheap here already.
$ 7,080.00 51.6 %
CHL
10 Jun 2008 70.00 CHL CALL (CHLFN) SC $ 700.00 6/16/2008 $ 940.00   3
$ 240.00 25.5 %
10 Sep 2008 65.00 CHL CALL (CHLIM) LC $ 7,610.00 6/16/2008 $ 7,400.00   3
$ -210.00 -2.8 %
So far, so good on this new postion.
$ 30.00 0.4 %
COH
20 Jun 2008 35.00 COH CALL (COHFG) SC $ 100.00 5/21/2008 $ 2,990.00   29
$ 2,890.00 96.7 %
20 Jan 2009 25.00 COH CALL (COHAE) LC $ 13,960.00 8/29/2007 $ 18,000.00   295
$ 4,040.00 28.9 %
I like them for earnings and I’m ahead enough to risk naked but if we get a good run I’ll cover.
$ 6,930.00 49.3 %
CY
120 Jul 2008 28.00 CY CALL (CYGJ) SC $ 15,000.00 6/19/2008 $ 14,990.00   0
$ -10.00 -0.1 %
120 Jan 2009 25.00 CY CALL (VSYAD) LC $ 66,970.00 2/14/2008 $ 104,400.00   126
$ 37,430.00 55.9 %
I came very close to cashing these out but I decided to go with a close cover as it paid 15% for the month. 
$ 37,420.00 45.7 %
FDX
20 Jun 2008 95.00 FDX CALL (FDXFS) SC $ 100.00 6/1/2008 $ 3,290.00   18
$ 3,190.00 97.0 %
20 Jan 2009 85.00 FDX CALL (FDXAQ) LC $ 25,610.00 4/10/2008 $ 15,600.00   70
$ -10,010.00 -39.1 %
Keeping coverage as is, they will fly up if oil comes down below $110 (our expectations are so low now)
$ -6,820.00 -26.5 %
GRMN
20 Jun 2008 45.00 GRMN CALL (GQRFI) SC $ 500.00 6/15/2008 $ 4,790.00   4
$ 4,290.00 89.6 %
20 Jan 2009 40.00 GRMN CALL (GQRAH) LC $ 21,010.00 4/30/2008 $ 16,600.00   50
$ -4,410.00 -21.0 %
LOL on my poor callers, who were way in the money last week.  Now I think the sell-off is overdone so I’ll wait for a bounce. 
$ -120.00 -0.6 %
HOV
120 Jan 2009 7.50 HOV CALL (HOVAU) LC $ 18,610.00 11/15/2007 $ 14,400.00   217
$ -4,210.00 -22.6 %
Have to wait for the recovery here.
$ -4,210.00 -22.6 %
IBM
20 Jun 2008 125.00 IBM CALL (IBMFE) SC $ 1,300.00 5/24/2008 $ 5,390.00   26
$ 4,090.00 75.9 %
20 Jan 2009 115.00 IBM CALL (IBMAC) LC $ 15,810.00 4/1/2008 $ 31,600.00   79
$ 15,790.00 99.9 %
Keeping a tight stop on the caller, will wait until next week to see what to sell.
$ 19,880.00 116.2 %
INTC
40 Jan 2009 22.50 INTC CALL (NQAW) LC $ 36,410.00 1/3/2008 $ 47,870.00   168
$ 11,460.00 31.5 %
Too cheap to cover!    Gosh I’m bullish aren’t I?
$ 11,460.00 31.5 %
ISRG
10 Jun 2008 280.00 ISRG CALL (AXVFV) SC $ 5,500.00 6/15/2008 $ 5,990.00   4
$ 490.00 8.2 %
10 Jan 2009 270.00 ISRG CALL (AXVAU) LC $ 47,510.00 5/22/2008 $ 52,000.00   28
$ 4,490.00 9.5 %
Rolling to July $280s
$ 4,980.00 9.4 %
LFG
25 Jan 2009 30.00 LFG PUT (XPAMX) LP $ 4,760.00 4/29/2008 $ 16,990.00   51
$ 12,230.00 256.9 %
I think they can go lower but I’m ready to cash these in.
$ 12,230.00 256.9 %
MCD
40 Jul 2008 60.00 MCD CALL (MCDGL) SC $ 3,600.00 6/19/2008 $ 6,990.00   0
$ 3,390.00 48.5 %
40 Jan 2009 50.00 MCD CALL (VMDAJ) LC $ 35,410.00 1/11/2008 $ 39,600.00   160
$ 4,190.00 11.8 %
Already covered in July, I don’t see  them moving much over $60
$ 7,580.00 19.4 %
MDT
40 Jun 2008 50.00 MDT CALL (MDTFJ) SC $ 5,200.00 5/20/2008 $ 3,990.00   30
$ -1,210.00 -30.3 %
40 Jan 2009 50.00 MDT CALL (MDTAJ) LC $ 10,530.00 9/6/2007 $ 17,600.00   287
$ 7,070.00 67.1 %
Rolling to 2/3 cover on July $50s
$ 5,860.00 37.3 %
MRVL
30 Jul 2008 17.50 MRVL CALL (UVMGW) SC $ 1,500.00 6/19/2008 $ 2,540.00   0
$ 1,040.00 40.9 %
30 Jun 2008 15.00 MRVL CALL (UVMFC) SC $ 4,500.00 5/13/2008 $ 1,940.00   37
$ -2,560.00 -132.0 %
30 Jan 2009 10.00 MRVL CALL (ULJAB) LC $ 8,560.00 2/22/2008 $ 20,100.00   118
$ 11,540.00 134.8 %
30 Jan 2009 25.00 MRVL CALL (UVMAE) LC $ 1,060.00 7/27/2007 $ 900.00   328
$ -160.00 -15.1 %
I got burned on the jump so I’m rolling straight over to July $15s.
$ 9,860.00 63.1 %
NYX
20 Jun 2008 60.00 NYX CALL (NYXFL) SC $ 440.00 6/19/2008 $ 1,990.00   0
$ 1,550.00 77.9 %
20 Jan 2009 60.00 NYX CALL (OOXAL) LC $ 8,370.00 3/10/2008 $ 14,000.00   101
$ 5,630.00 67.3 %
Can’t turn down $2 for the July $60s!
$ 7,180.00 81.5 %
PEIX
160 Jan 2009 5.00 PEIX CALL (OOSAA) LC $ 15,210.00 1/23/2008 $ 7,890.00   148
$ -7,320.00 -48.1 %
Arrrg!  So frustrating, just watching and waiting. 
$ -7,320.00 -48.1 %
PEP
60 Jul 2008 67.50 PEP CALL (PEPGU) SC $ 3,900.00 6/19/2008 $ 5,390.00   0
$ 1,490.00 27.6 %
60 Jan 2010 70.00 PEP CALL (WPAN) LC $ 37,990.00 2/8/2008 $ 31,800.00   132
$ -6,190.00 -16.3 %
Already made my July cover.
$ -4,700.00 -11.2 %
POT
40 Jun 2008 200.00 POT CALL (PYPFX) SC $ 151,600.00 5/21/2008 $ 43,990.00   29
$ -107,610.00 -244.6 %
40 Sep 2008 200.00 POT CALL (PYPIX) LC $ 123,610.00 4/24/2008 $ 195,200.00   56
$ 71,590.00 57.9 %
They burned me big time!  Very bad as I only have Septembers but, for now I’m going to spend $6 to roll to the July $210 callers and spend $5 to roll myself to the Jan $210s . 
$ -36,020.00 -13.1 %
SBUX
60 Jun 2008 16.00 SBUX CALL (SQXFQ) SC $ 11,220.00 5/14/2008 $ 4,190.00   36
$ -7,030.00 -167.8 %
60 Jan 2009 15.00 SBUX CALL (SQXAC) LC $ 26,340.00 8/1/2007 $ 23,100.00   323
$ -3,240.00 -12.3 %
I can’t believe SBUX burned me with a caller!  After all my loyal support…  I’m going to roll myself to 2x the $17.50s and roll the callers to  2x the July $17.50s 
$ -10,270.00 -27.3 %
SHFL
40 Jan 2009 15.00 SHFL CALL (SFQAC) LC $ 1,810.00 9/12/2007 $ 200.00   281
$ -1,610.00 -89.0 %
Just hoping they come back.
$ -1,610.00 -89.0 %
SHLD
40 Jun 2008 80.00 SHLD CALL (KTQFP) SC $ 1,800.00 6/19/2008 $ 10,390.00   0
$ 8,590.00 82.7 %
20 Jun 2008 80.00 SHLD CALL (KTQFP) SC $ 900.00 6/19/2008 $ 5,190.00   0
$ 4,290.00 82.7 %
20 Jan 2010 80.00 SHLD CALL (WNQAP) LC $ 36,010.00 6/15/2008 $ 31,800.00   4
$ -4,210.00 -11.7 %
40 Sep 2008 80.00 SHLD CALL (KTQIP) LC $ 39,610.00 5/27/2008 $ 23,600.00   23
$ -16,010.00 -40.4 %
20 Jun 2008 90.00 SHLD CALL (KTQFR) SC $ 100.00 5/21/2008 $ 1,990.00   29
$ 1,890.00 95.0 %
20 Sep 2008 100.00 SHLD CALL (KTQIT) LC $ 2,410.00 5/6/2008 $ 2,300.00   44
$ -110.00 -4.6 %
Can’t turn down $3 for the July $80s but I’ll leave the Sept $100s open for now.
$ -5,560.00 -6.9 %
SIGM
80 Oct 2008 15.00 SIGM CALL (MQNJC) LC $ 44,020.00 3/12/2008 $ 25,600.00   99
$ -18,420.00 -41.8 %
I think they  are insanely underpriced and I can’t bring myself to sell against them.  I rolled to the Oct $15s to get more leverage on a bounce and I may roll to the $12.50s and sell the July $17.50s if we don’t get a recovery next week.  
$ -18,420.00 -41.8 %
SNE
20 Jan 2009 50.00 SNE CALL (SNEAJ) LC $ 6,010.00 4/30/2008 $ 9,200.00   50
$ 3,190.00 53.1 %
This is a dollar bounce play as well as a consumer not dead yet play but, if they can’t hold $48 I will sell 1/2 July $45s .
$ 3,190.00 53.1 %
THQI
30 Jan 2009 20.00 THQI CALL (VZOAD) LC $ 8,110.00 1/31/2008 $ 10,200.00   140
$ 2,090.00 25.8 %
I think they are primed for a break out.
$ 2,090.00 25.8 %
TIE
100 Jul 2008 17.50 TIE CALL (TIEGW) SC $ 3,500.00 6/10/2008 $ 9,990.00   9
$ 6,490.00 65.0 %
100 Jan 2009 15.00 TIE CALL (XJXAC) LC $ 38,510.00 4/10/2008 $ 25,500.00   70
$ -13,010.00 -33.8 %
Crazy underpriced but I’ll sell July $15s for $1 if they have trouble holding it.
$ -6,520.00 -15.5 %
TM
30 Jan 2009 110.00 TM CALL (TMAT) LC $ 30,610.00 3/3/2008 $ 32,100.00   108
$ 1,490.00 4.9 %

Also a dollar play but I feel very safe long-term with TM.   The fact that you can get $5 for the July $100s also makes me very comfortable! 
$ 1,490.00 4.9 %
TXN
80 Jan 2009 30.00 TXN CALL (TXNAF) LC $ 25,370.00 12/29/2006 $ 19,920.00   538
$ -5,450.00 -21.5 %
At this point, if they go lower, I’ll buy more/roll down but I’m more a buyer of the front-month calls than a seller at $30.
$ -5,450.00 -21.5 %
USO
10 Jun 2008 108.00 USO PUT (IYSRD) SP $ 650.00 6/19/2008 $ 1,990.00   0
$ 1,340.00 67.3 %
10 Jan 2010 102.00 USO PUT (YIVMX) LP $ 16,510.00 6/7/2008 $ 17,100.00   12
$ 590.00 3.6 %
I hate this stock!   I’m mostly playing for the fun of day-trading the front month.
$ 1,930.00 11.2 %
UTX
15 Jul 2008 70.00 UTX CALL (UTXGN) SC $ 2,100.00 6/19/2008 $ 2,615.00   0
$ 515.00 19.7 %
15 Jan 2009 70.00 UTX CALL (UTXAN) LC $ 2,710.00 7/13/2007 $ 6,900.00   342
$ 4,190.00 154.6 %
Oh no, the Democrats are coming and they are going to leave our country defenseless!  So silly…  I would buy this company just for Otis – talk about a long-term growth story!   I’m going to DD on my longs at this point. 
$ 4,705.00 97.8 %
VZ
40 Jan 2010 35.00 VZ CALL (WLEAG) LC $ 21,210.00 4/25/2008 $ 19,800.00   55
$ -1,410.00 -6.6 %
I’m still accumulating these.  I’m more worried about them taking off on me than anything else so staying naked for now but, if we head down, I’ll sell the $35s, now $1.75 and DD when we get near the bottom (maybe revisit $34).
$ -1,410.00 -6.6 %
WFMI
20 Jun 2008 28.00 WFMI CALL (FMQFO) SC $ 80.00 5/21/2008 $ 2,890.00   29
$ 2,810.00 97.2 %
20 Nov 2008 25.00 WFMI CALL (FMQKE) LC $ 11,110.00 5/20/2008 $ 6,700.00   30
$ -4,410.00 -39.7 %
Every one I go to is packed.  I will roll down and buy more but, for now, I’m also covering with July $26s. 
$ -1,600.00 -14.3 %
WFR
40 Jan 2010 70.00 WFR CALL (ZYGAN) LC $ 31,610.00 4/20/2007 $ 64,800.00   426
$ 33,190.00 105.0 %
20 Jan 2009 85.00 WFR CALL (WFRAM) LC $ 33,610.00 2/15/2008 $ 21,400.00   125
$ -12,210.00 -36.3 %
Too low to cover but selling the July $65s for $3.70 is not something I will let get away for long.  Probably do a 2/3 sell on a good run.
$ 20,980.00 32.2 %
WMT
40 Jul 2008 60.00 WMT CALL (WMTGL) SC $ 2,960.00 6/19/2008 $ 5,390.00   0
$ 2,430.00 45.1 %
40 Jan 2009 55.00 WMT CALL (VWTAK) LC $ 12,010.00 3/20/2008 $ 24,800.00   91
$ 12,790.00 106.5 %
How many time do they have to tell people business is good before someone believes them?  I don’t think people are going to run back to Macy’s the second the economy turns.  I think a mild recession was the best thing in the world for WMT because it put a lot of people through their doors who never went before.  There’s a great South Park episode about how WMT traps you once you start going because the prices are just so insanely low – it’s pretty true.   Anyway, they are a fantastic income producer and I will sell 3/4 the July $57.50s for $1.75 
$ 15,220.00 101.7 %
XLF
120 Jan 2010 24.00 XLF CALL (WFSAY) LC $ 46,570.00 3/20/2008 $ 31,200.00   91
$ -15,370.00 -33.0 %
They have GOT to be kidding with this price.  Are we in a depression?  Paying .90 to roll down to the $22s, no cover.  
$ -15,370.00 -33.0 %
XOM
60 Jan 2009 95.00 XOM PUT (XOMMT) LP $ 70,750.00 4/14/2008 $ 90,000.00   66
$ 19,250.00 27.2 %
If oil comes down I’m selling the $90 puts as a mo play but I’ll go naked after that and only sell the July $90s if we break $90. 
$ 19,250.00 27.2 %
Total Gain/Loss
$ 40,905.00 2.4 %

 

 

 

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Note: The material presented in this commentary is provided for informational purposes only and is based upon information that is considered to be reliable. However, neither PSW Investments, LLC d/b/a PhilStockWorld (PSW) nor its affiliates warrant its completeness, accuracy or adequacy and it should not be relied upon as such. Neither PSW nor its affiliates are responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of this information. Past performance, including the tracking of virtual trades and portfolios for educational purposes, is not necessarily indicative of future results. Neither Phil, Optrader, or anyone related to PSW is a registered financial adviser and they may hold positions in the stocks mentioned, which may change at any time without notice. Do not buy or sell based on anything that is written here, the risk of loss in trading is great.

This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities or other financial instruments mentioned in this material are not suitable for all investors. Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only intended at the moment of their issue as conditions quickly change. The information contained herein does not constitute advice on the tax consequences of making any particular investment decision. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs and is not intended as a recommendation to you of any particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. Before investing, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

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