What a wild ride that was:
Dow volume was good today and we were up 70 at 9:50, down 120 from there at 10:20, up 160 from there at 1:50 then down 170 from that at 2:50 and back up 130 from there at the close so congratulations if they are not hauling you away in a straight jacket!
First thing in the morning (9:54) I said to members: "Markets all over the place but if we can’t get back 1/2 of yesterday’s losses then who the hell is going to want to hold anything into the weekend unless GE is spectacular?" Unfortunately, we did not get back 1/2 of our loss and oil flew up at the NYMEX close so my end of day comment was: "That was, on the whole, a good recovery but it doesn’t matter what happens other than GE tomorrow so make sure you have decent coverage, just in case but I’m still going about 25% uncovered overall because if GE doesn’t save us, it’s time to go short."
We were lucky as we gutted out the drop in the morning and had a chance to take out our callers way down at the 11,100 mark – TWICE, and then we were able to re-cover at generally higher prices. While we are hopeful that GE's earnings will be SOOOOO good that they will make us forget $140+ oil prices, I'm not too hopeful.
Looking at the Big Chart after two weeks is not exactly filling us with hope either:
|
|
|
Week's |
25% |
20% |
Feeling |
200 |
|
Index |
Current |
Move |
Terror |
Horror |
Better |
DMA |
| Dow | 11,229 | -224 | 10,644 | 11,354 | 11,808 | 12,778 |
| Transports | 2,378 | -50 | 2,336 | 2,491 | 2,591 | 2,669 |
| S&P | 1,253 | -30 | 1,182 | 1,261 | 1,311 | 1,404 |
| NYSE | 8,435 | -205 | 7,790 | 8,310 | 8,642 | 9,356 |
| Nasdaq | 2,257 | -64 | 2,146 | 2,289 | 2,380 | 2,483 |
| SOX | 349 | -21 | 419 | 447 | 465 | 397 |
| Russell | 670 | -28 | 642 | 684 | 712 | 736 |
| Hang Seng | 21,821 | -634 | 24,000 | 25,600 | 26,624 | 25,512 |
| Nikkei | 13,067 | -755 | 13,725 | 14,640 | 15,226 | 14,435 |
| BSE (India) | 13,926 | -495 | 15,900 | 16,960 | 17,638 | 17,492 |
| DAX | 6,305 | -154 | 6,088 | 6,494 | 6,753 | 7,183 |
| CAC 40 | 4,231 | -195 | 4,626 | 4,934 | 5,132 | 5,114 |
| FTSE | 5,409 | -109 | 5,066 | 5,403 | 5,619 | 6,088 |
The Dow. the S&P, Nasdaq, and Russell all fell below our "20% Horror" line while all of Asia is now below the "25% Terror" mark along with the CAC while the FTSE teeters right at the 20% line. Losing the Russell is a very bad thing and if we lose the NYSE it may be well and truly over in the markets.
There is little chance of a recovery if oil doesn't correct but, as we see this week from Iranian missile tests, Nigerian rebel attacks, engineered inventory shortages by the NYMEX crooks, ridiculous trading patterns on the NYMEX, attacks on the financial industry and a total lack of government support for our dollar or our financial markets – there's probably no chance at all under this administration.
Sorry to sound depressing but this truly is depressing…
