Archive for 2008

Hard Landing Hits China

Here’s another article on China, courtesy of Mish. 

Peter Schiff Hugely Right, Enormously Wrong as Hard Landing Hits China

We will take a look at Schiff from two perspectives shortly. First let’s note the massive influx of workers into Chinese cities is now in reverse as Chinese job losses prompt exodus.

Tens of thousands of migrant workers are leaving the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou after losing their jobs, railway officials say. The increase to 130,000 passengers leaving the city’s main station daily is being blamed on the credit crunch.

Guangzhou is one of China’s largest manufacturing hubs, but many companies who export products have collapsed. Chinese officials are worried that a sudden increase in unemployment could lead to social unrest.

The most badly hit export companies are toy, shoe, and furniture manufacturers. There are already reports of demonstrations and social unrest in the provinces of Zhejiang and Guangdong. 

Toy Manufacturing Collapses

Here are a few headlines about the Chinese to exporting business.

Half of China’s toy exporters out of business

A total of 3,631 toy exporters or 52.7 percent of the industry’s businesses shut down in 2008. They were mainly small-sized toy producers with an export value of less than $100,000.

Thousands of toy makers laid off

Workers at a toy factory in Guangdong have become the latest victims of the worldwide financial tsunami.

More than 6,000 employees lost their jobs when Smart Union, a major toy manufacturer in Dongguan, closed earlier this week. "The main reason for the closure is we are too dependent on the US market, which has become sluggish," said Xu Xiaofang, a Smart Union human resource worker.

After losing money for the first half of the year, its cash flow finally dried up.
Machinery normally busy churning out toys for major US toy brands Mattel and Disney now sits idle.

50% of toy firms ‘gone in 2 years’

Speaking in an interview with Guangzhou Daily, Wang Zhiguang, vice-chairman of the Dongguan Toy Industry Association, said: "Of the 3,800-odd toy firms in Dongguan, no more than 2,000 are likely to survive the next couple of years."

Xiao Yong, the owner of a Dongguan firm that sells Christmas trees


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Plan to Expand TARP Coverage

Here’s an update, courtesy of Mish, on the expanding TARP Coverage.  

Treasury Unveils New Plan To Expand TARP Coverage 

By Mish, at Global Economic Trend Analysis

In late breaking news, Treasury Secretary Paulson has announced a new plan to expand TARP coverage.

Congress was behind the push as Pelosi, Reid Press for TARP Aid for Auto Industry.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid sent to send a letter to Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson urging him to assist the Big Three auto makers by considering broadening the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program to help the troubled industry.

The two top Democratic leaders in Congress are likely to make the request in a letter to the White House, which could be forwarded as soon as Saturday afternoon, said individuals familiar with the matter. President-elect Barack Obama is generally supportive of the appeal, but at the moment is moving on his own track to assist the industry, these individuals said.

Mr. Obama is scheduled to meet with President George W. Bush at the White House Monday.

Though the administration is reluctant to widen the program to cover autos, there has been discussion among Bush officials of expanding use of the $700 billion to buy equity stakes in a range of financial-sector companies, moving beyond just banks and insurers. The focus would be on assisting companies that provide financing to the broad economy, such as bond insurers and specialty finance firms such as General Electric Co.’s GE Capital unit, CIT Group Inc. and others, individuals familiar with the matter said.

Auto Makers Would Accept Strings on Aid 

Competition to get under TARP coverage is so high that Auto Makers Would Accept Strings on Aid.

The heads of Detroit’s three auto makers and the United Auto Workers union pleaded Thursday with Democratic congressional leaders to rush more government aid to their foundering companies, offering to accept conditions such as granting stock warrants to the government in return for capital, a person familiar with the discussions said.

President-elect Barack Obama and some other Democrats have expressed support for proposals to double to $50 billion a previously authorized government-loan program aimed at helping Detroit’s unionized auto makers retool


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China Acts

Menzie Chinn, at Econbrowser, comments on China’s announced 4 Trillion Yaun/$586 Billion stimulus package.   

China Acts

Courtesy of Menzie Chinn, Econbrowser

From Bloomberg:

China Announces 4 Trillion Yuan Economic Stimulus (Update2)

By Li Yanping and Chia-Peck Wong

Nov. 9 (Bloomberg) — China announced a 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus plan to spur expansion in the world’s fourth-largest economy, helping sustain global growth as the U.S., Europe and Japan teeter on the brink of recession.

The funds, equivalent to almost a fifth of China’s $3.3 trillion gross domestic product last year, will be used by the end of 2010, the Beijing-based State Council said today on its Web site. China will adopt a "pro-active fiscal policy" and pursue a "moderately loose" monetary policy, it said.

Apparently, the Chinese leadership is not too sanguine about economic prospects. I reprise Figure 1 from this post, which depicts the growth rate for China’s real GDP over the past 14 years.

chinagdp1.gif
Figure 1: 4 quarter growth rate in real Chinese GDP, latest vintage (blue) and August 2006 vintage (red). Source: CEIC (older vintage), ADB, and press accounts (newest vintage).

The article continues:

China accounted for 27 percent of global economic growth last year, more than any other nation, the International Monetary Fund said in a report in April this year. Taiwan, which counts China as its largest trading partner, today cut interest rates for the fourth time in two months after exports dropped in October by the most in three years.

"Over the past two months, the global financial crisis has been intensifying daily," the State Council said in today’s statement. "In expanding investment, we must be fast and heavy- handed."

Housing, Infrastructure

The package announced today, of which 100 billion yuan is earmarked for this quarter, will go toward low-rent housing, infrastructure in rural areas, as well as roads, railways and airports, the State Council said.

The government will also allow tax deductions for purchases of fixed assets such as machinery to stimulate investment, a move that will reduce companies’ costs by an estimated 120 billion yuan. 

In addition, grain purchase prices and subsidies for farmers will be raised, as will allowances


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Insights from a Derivative Salesman

Here’s a thought-provoking article, courtesy of Roger Ehrenberg at Information Arbitrage, about the derivative markets from an insider’s view.  Roger suggests a better model for derivatives in the future, i.e., an exchange-based model.  

Insights from a Derivatives Salesman

I spent over 10 years in derivatives, from 1993-2003. My role was a transactor in the Structuring and Origination part of the business, advising corporations on all manner of risk management strategies. During this time I saw the power – and the risks – of inappropriate derivatives transactions, either due to unnecessary complexity or blatant mis-application. The 1994 derivatives blow-ups of Proctor & Gamble, Gibson Greetings, Air Products and Orange County, the 1998 leveraged bets of LTCM and assorted scandals ranging from MG to Barings to various municipalities marked the ebbs and flows of the industry. I spent the better part of 1994-95 restructuring broken transactions and giving "best practices" presentations, only to see many of the same mistakes made again and again over the subsequent decade. I have seen the "it" asset class move from interest rates to equity to credit, and transaction volumes move from billions to many trillions. It is a new – and scary – world. My years in derivatives as a practitioner, and now as an observer, have taught me many things and clarified my view of how and where these instruments should be used. Bottom line: an exchange-based model is the way forward for the good of hedgers and speculators, promoting stability of the financial markets and protection of governments and taxpayers across the globe.

The OTC market was cool – for making money

I was a big proponent and beneficiary of the over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives market. Customized and client-specific, these transactions also meant something else: fat spreads. By the time the 1990s rolled around, spreads on vanilla derivative transactions collapsed rapidly and new entrants moved in and competition increased. Doing a vanilla fixed-to-floating swap off the back of a bond issuance or floating-to-fixed swap to lock-in the rate on a bank financing simply wasn’t interesting – from a compensation perspective. Knock-ins, knock-outs, up-and-outs, down-and-ins, embedded bermuda swaptions, momentum caps, etc. all helped to differentiate solutions from competitors and preserve proprietary profits in trades. Volumes off the corporate desk simply weren’t great enough to make a business
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Bloomberg v. The Fed

Tim Iacono, at The Mess That Greenspan Made, reports on the lawsuit filed by Bloomberg to force the Federal Reserve to disclose what securities it is accepting as collateral in return for the money it loaned to banks.  The U.S. Freedom of Information Act requires federal agencies to make government documents available.   

Bloomberg v. The Fed

This report just in from … Bloomberg. It appears that some inquiring minds want to know some of the particulars behind the recent government spending spree on toxic securities.

Bloomberg Sues Fed to Force Disclosure of Collateral
Bloomberg News asked a U.S. court today to force the Federal Reserve to disclose securities the central bank is accepting on behalf of American taxpayers as collateral for $1.5 trillion of loans to banks.

The lawsuit is based on the U.S. Freedom of Information Act, which requires federal agencies to make government documents available to the press and the public, according to the complaint. The suit, filed in New York, doesn’t seek money damages.

Bloomberg News on May 21 asked the Fed to provide data on the collateral posted between April 4 and May 20. The central bank said on June 19 that it needed until July 3 to search out the documents and determine whether it would make them public. Bloomberg never received a formal response that would enable it to file an appeal. On Oct. 25, Bloomberg filed another request and has yet to receive a reply.

Apparently the details Bloomberg seeks are Top Secret (I’m not kidding – go read the article) and if nothing else, probably somewhat embarrassing.

My Comment:

From Wikipedia’s discussion:

However, it is in the exemptions to solicitation of information under these acts that problems and discrepancies arise. The nine exemptions to the FOIA address issues of sensitivity and personal rights. They are (as listed in Title 5 of the United States Code, section 552): [1]

8.  contained in or related to examination, operating, or condition reports prepared by, on behalf of, or for the use of an agency responsible for the regulation or supervision of financial institutions; or

Now take a look at the Fed’s position, as reported in the Bloomberg article:

Fed’s Position

The Fed staff planned to recommend that Bloomberg’s request be denied


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Beverly Hills Pawn Shops

You know it’s bad when…. you have to pawn your 18-caret gold bracelet with 69 diamonds to get a face lift.  

Bloomberg: Even Pawn Shops in Bevery Hills are Booming

Courtesy of Trader Mark at FundMyMutualFund.

Goodness gracious! I guess every income strata is indeed being hit. It is ironic he used the words I’ve used in the past in regards to pawn shops – the lender of ONLY resort for more and more Americans. I just didn’t expect it to be the Beverly Hills crowd when I said "people". I guess the lack of discipline, planning, and financial literacy is not just a problem of the "common folk".

  • The worse the economy gets, the better it is for Jordan Tabach-Bank. “Business is booming,” said Tabach-Bank, the chief executive officer of Beverly Loan Co. in Beverly Hills, California.
  • Beverly Loan is a pawnshop. Not just any pawnshop, but the kind that caters to people who hock Cartiers, Harley- Davidsons and Oscar statuettes when they need cash. They really need it now, Tabach-Bank said from a third-floor office, protected by bulletproof glass, off his showroom in the Bank of America building near Rodeo Drive.
  • I’ve never seen so many bankers, lawyers, doctors and actors” with valuable things to pawn, he said. He pointed to an 18-carat white gold bracelet with 69 diamonds ($2,900) and an 18-carat yellow gold Rolex Yachtmaster II (“a steal” at $18,500).
  • With credit drying up at regular lenders, “in many cases now, we’re not just the bank of last resort,” Tabach-Bank said. “We’re the bank of only resort.
  • The average U.S. pawn transaction is $75, according to the association’s Web site. At Tabach-Bank’s shop, “confidential collateral loans,” as they’re called, have been made on art works by Pablo Picasso, Andy Warhol and Jean-Michel Basquiat. Amounts loaned range from several thousand dollars to “six- and seven-figure deals,” he said, with clients using the money to cover the mortgage, make alimony payments or finance cosmetic surgery. 
  • South Beverly Jewelry and Loan, also in Beverly Hills, has seen business triple in the past six months, said owner Yossi Dina. Some of the collateral is in a parking lot:


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Wild Weekly Wrap-Up

Well that was a lot of work to lose 400 points for the week!

On the brighter side we're up 500 points since October 10th and it's starting to look a little bit like some healthy consolidation forming a bottom around 8,500.  8,500 is close enough to 40% off 14,000 for us to use the rounded numbers for a top and bottom and, as we form a new base, I'll be adjusting our upside expectations accodingly but it's pretty clear that we'll be testing the 9,000 line next week and Robin Hood's Dow chart gives us a pretty clear indication of the very hard road to recovery that lies ahead of us.

We had a fantastic week with many great trades as we were right on top of the market moves all week.  In last weekend's wrap up I said: "We have the election to distract us on Tuesday and that is also keeping a lid on the financial news as most papers are concentrating on the election so it may go unnoticed on Monday that no additional funding is pouring into the markets.  We have a lot of data hitting the wire… after which the market mood may change quite a bit."  Well, that was pretty much exactly what happened, with the markets driving up 300 into the election and then dropping 1,000 points the next two days as investors refocused on earnings and data – isn't it nice to know what's going to happen a week ahead of time?

I was actually off by 100 points in calling for 9,500 to be the top on Monday morning as we coasted along the 9,600 on Tuesday but it did become the break point on Wednesday.  We noted that p/e's could actually go quite a bit lower in a full-blown recession and we remain concerned that this is a "junkie economy," one that needs a fresh fix of capital on a regular basis to get going and which quickly goes into withdrawals and crashes until it gets the next Federal fix.

Monday evening I noted that the VIX movement justified our change of strategy to purchasing actual stocks and selling the puts and calls against them to lower the basis as we are loath to pay the wild premiums that are currently attached to option contracts.  We picked up a…
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Improving Valuations

Prieur du Plessis reports on valuation measures -- the chart below compares price-earnings ratios.  The table provides additional parameters.    

Global stock markets show improving valuations

A study of the dividend yields and price-earnings multiples of a list of 100 global stock markets makes for interesting reading.

With the sharp decline in stock markets over the past few months, valuation levels have obviously improved markedly. This is illustrated by the fact that 62% of the indices are now trading at PEs of less than 10, compared with a figure of 39% a mere one month ago.

The following graph, courtesy of US Global Investors, illustrates the PE compression that has taken place in developed and emerging markets respectively since 1999/2000.  [EM = emerging markets]

ms-9-nov.jpg

Value is undoubtedly starting to return to some stock markets, even if one factors in that the valuation metrics are based on historical figures and need to be adjusted for reduced earnings and dividend cuts. And, needless to say, many of the markets have made it to the top (i.e. “cheap”) end of the rankings on the back of pretty dismal circumstances.

Although the valuation tables do not represent a shopping list, they are a handy screening tool to trigger further research.

Click here or on the thumbnail below for the global index valuation tables.

8-nov-16.jpg

Source: Fullermoney (based on data from Bloomberg), November 6, 2008.

 





Wave of Redemptions

Here’s an article by Mish on hedge fund redemptions, which have led to some funds halting withdrawals. 

Wave of Redemptions Hits Hedge Funds

Myron Scholes, the 1997 Noble Prize Winning Genius involved in the demise of Long Term Capital Management has done it again. Scholes’s Platinum Grove Fund Halts Withdrawals After Losses.

Platinum Grove Asset Management LP, the hedge-fund firm co-founded by Nobel laureate Myron Scholes, temporarily stopped investor withdrawals from its biggest fund after it lost 29 percent in the first half of October.

The decline left Platinum Grove Contingent Master fund with a 38 percent loss this year through Oct. 15, according to investors. Funds employing a similar approach of exploiting differences in the value of related securities fell 14 percent last month and 30 percent this year, according to data compiled by Chicago-based Hedge Fund Research Inc.

"The suspension is necessary given current market conditions,” Ryebrook, New York-based Platinum Grove said in an e-mailed statement today. "Platinum Grove will use this period to consult with its investors and counterparties, determine their future intentions and manage the assets of the fund accordingly.”

Hedge funds are reeling from the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, losing an average of 20 percent this year, according to Hedge Fund Research. A surge of investor redemptions forced firms such as Blue Mountain Capital Management LLC and Deephaven Capital Management LLC to freeze funds to stem the tide of withdrawals.

Scholes, 67, winner of the 1997 Nobel Prize in economics, was a founding partner in Long-Term Capital Management LP, the hedge fund that lost $4 billion a decade ago after a debt default by Russia. He started Platinum Grove in 1999 with Chi-fu Huang, Ayman Hindy, Tong-sheng Sun, and Lawrence Ng, who had all worked at Long-Term Capital.

Please see Genius Fails Again for a recap of the demise of Long Term Capital Management that rocked the world in 1998. In retrospect I should have saved the title "Genius Fails Again" for now. 

Man Group Has Record Drop

Bloomberg is reporting Man Group Has Record Drop in London as Assets Decline.

Man Group Plc, the largest publicly traded hedge-fund manager, fell the most in London trading since it


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Mess & Disaster that Obama Will Inherit

What’s next?  Here’s a recent article by Nouriel Roubini, discussing his views.  He does not see a quick fix for the crisis but rather a long, drawn out global recession — the worst is still ahead, even with good intentions and saner policies going forward. 

The Economic Mess and Financial Disaster that Obama Will Inherit

Courtesy of Nouriel Roubini’s Global EconoMonitor 

The good news is that America has just elected a president with leadership, vision and great intelligence. President Obama will also choose a first rate economic team: individuals such as Larry Summers and Tim Geithner would be excellent choices for the position of Treasury Secretary. Obama and his team are fully aware of the very difficult economic and financial challenges that the country is facing and will work hard to resolve them.

However, Obama will inherit and economic and financial mess worse than anything the U.S. has faced in decades: the most severe recession in 50 years; the worst financial and banking crisis since the Great Depression; a ballooning fiscal deficit that may be as high as a trillion dollar in 2009 and 2010; a huge current account deficit; a financial system that is in a severe crisis and where deleveraging is still occurring at a very rapid pace, thus causing a worsening of the credit crunch; a household sector where millions of households are insolvent, into negative equity territory and on the verge of losing their homes; a serious risk of deflation as the slack in goods, labor and commodity markets becomes deeper; the risk that we will end in a deflationary liquidity trap as the Fed is fast approaching the zero-bound constraint for the Fed Funds rate; the risk of a severe debt deflation as the real value of nominal liabilities will rise given price deflation while the value of financial assets is still plunging. This is the bitter gift that the Bush administration has bequeathed to Obama and the Democrats. 

Given this dismal background, let us consider next in more detail the macro outlook for the U.S. and global economy and its implications for financial markets.

The latest U.S. macro news have been worse than awful: collapsing retail sales and consumption, free fall in capex spending by the corporate sector, sharply
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Zero Hedge

Johns Hopkins, Bristol-Myers Face $1 Billion Suit For Infecting Guatemalan Hookers With Syphilis 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A federal judge in Maryland said Johns Hopkins University, pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb and the Rockefeller Foundation must face a $1 billion lawsuit over their roles in a top-secret program in the 1940s ran by the US government that injected hundreds of Guatemalans with syphilis, reported Reuters.

Several doctors from Hopkins an...



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Phil's Favorites

This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen"

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018.

By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS, although on many months the (balance sheet) B/S does not actually shrink by this full amount which depends on the redemption schedule) and by end-Q4 markets also experienced some of the largest volatility and drawdowns in nearly a decade.

As Nomura&...



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ValueWalk

The Competition For Capital Has Made Stocks Cheap

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The new year is upon us, and now is the time many investors look at what 2018 was and prepare for what 2019 might be. Recession jitters are starting to pick back up again, especially now that the full picture of 2018 is in the books. But what if you could pick only one theme for 2018? Jefferies strategist Sean Darby and team have a suggestion which is especially timely given that it appears to mark the end of an era.

StockSnap / PixabayVolatility carries into the new year

This past year was one of extremes, and the markets ended i...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock declines did not break 9-year support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We often hear “Stocks take an escalator up and an elevator down!” No doubt stocks did experience a swift decline from the September highs to the Christmas eve lows. Looks like the “elevator” part of the phrase came true as 2018 was coming to an end.

The first part of the “stocks take an escalator up” seems to still be in play as well despite the swift decline of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- All of these indices hit long-term rising support on Christmas Eve at each (1), where support held and rallies have followed.

If you find long-term perspectives helpf...



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Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



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Insider Scoop

Cars.com Explores Strategic Alternatives, Analyst Sees Possible Sale Price Around $30 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 44 Biggest Movers From Yesterday 38 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Mid-Day Session ...

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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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