Archive for July, 2009

Free Money Runs Out, Congress Authorizes More

Free Money Runs Out, Congress Authorizes More

cash for clunkersCourtesy of Mish

With $1 billion already wasted Lawmakers Vote on $2 Billion More to Replenish ‘Clunkers’ Program.

The U.S. House opened debate on an emergency measure to add as much as $2 billion to the “cash for clunkers” program after a burst of demand exhausted most of the initial $1 billion.

The initiative to encourage new-car sales is still in operation, White House press secretary Robert Gibbs told reporters today. Members of Congress had said late yesterday that the clunkers offer was being suspended.

“If you were planning on going to buy a car this weekend, using this program, this program continues to run,” Gibbs said. “If you meet the requirements of the program, the certificates will be honored.”

Named the Car Allowance Rebate System, the program provides credits of as much as $4,500 for the purchase of a new car when turning in an older vehicle to be scrapped. Lawmakers had expected the program to generate about 250,000 vehicle sales and to have enough money to last until about Nov. 1.

The funding was offered as an amendment to legislation by Representative Barney Frank, the Massachusetts Democrat who heads the House Financial Services Committee, which would ban incentive pay for Wall Street executives.

‘Cash for Clunkers’ Runs Out of Gas

Inquiring minds have found some interesting quotes in the Wall Street Journal article ‘Cash for Clunkers’ Runs Out of Gas.

Michael J. Jackson, chief executive of AutoNation Inc. said "It was an absolute success. There’s a very compelling case the government should put more money into it. It’s a great stimulus to the economy."

Actually a very compelling case can be made that the CEO of AutoNation is an economic illiterate. All the program does is shift demand forward. Those clunkers were going to die at some point. Now sales are up this year which will cut into next year’s demand, at the expense of everyone not getting free money.

Why anyone should be surprised at the "success" in generating demand for free money is beyond me. There is always demand for free money. Yet, interestingly, everyone seems surprised by the "unexpected success".

If the government wants more "success", it can give everyone $4,500 for a car. Short-term demand will soar. But long-term demand for cars would crash for the


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More On “The Less Bad Is Good” Mantra…….

Click here for a FREE, 90-day trail subscription to our PSW Report!  

More On "The Less Bad Is Good" Mantra…….

Courtesy of Jan-Martin Feddersen of Immobilienblasen

The perfect fit to yesterdays post But Still Better Than Expected…….. ….

Paßt wie die Faust aufs Auge zum gestrigen Post But Still Better Than Expected……..
 

[cartoon+spin+bull+vs+bear.jpg]

Refining, the weakest link in the recovery Stephen Schork via FT Alphaville

Demand, not only for gasoline, but for other major products markets as well, is going the wrong way, i.e. from the top left to the bottom right on the charts. Thus, Big Oil is straining under the weight of poor margins.

It is now hard to reconcile these earnings reports, demand was lousy in the second quarter (and it not any better today). Yet, this market was being fed a fantastic lie back then… the less bad is good mantra.

Thus, whereas spot crude oil on the NYMEX finished the first quarter just below $50 a barrel (49.66) it finished the second quarter just below $70 (69.89). Crude oil rallied 40 percent as profits at the world’s largest oil companies were tumbling.

Why?

Because this market wanted to ignore the obvious and lull itself to sleep with silly pseudo-intellectual catchphrases… green shoots, crocuses, mustard seeds and this season’s rookie of the year… the second derivative.

Thus, while we were led to believe that demand for oil was rising in the second quarter, hence the justification for that 40 percent surge on the NYMEX, we now have the balance sheets from Exxon, Shell et al. that prove it was a lie.

Look at the screenshot of headlines we pasted on the top of today’s report. Profits for Big Oil are down as demand is at generational lows.

However, look at the very first headline, the NYMEX was higher yesterday because “… corporate earnings boost confidence…”

Huh?

According to this one article, demand for oil and therefore profits for oil companies are down, but the NYMEX rallied yesterday because Motorola (mobile phone maker) had a smaller than projected loss and Calphalon (cookware) and Paper Mate (writing instruments) had better than expected profits

. Bloomberg screenshot headlines

You really cannot make this up……

Das ist so absurd das man sich unweigerlich fragt ob wir schon wieder den 1. April haben…. :-)

 

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TGI Failure Friday: Four Banks Down

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

4 down as of 6:30 pm

  • Integrity Bank, Jupiter, Florida
  • First BankAmericano, Elizabeth, New Jersey
  • First State Bank of Altus, Altus, Oklahoma
  • Peoples Community Bank, West Chester, Ohio




Uh Oh…. (GDP Interpretation)

Uh Oh…. (GDP Interpretation)

Courtesy of Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker


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The Great Reflation Experiment

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Must read from The Boeckh Investment Letter:

 

hat tip SunSurfer

Attachment Size
The Great Reflation Experiment.pdf 340.8 KB




Senator Edward Kaufman Joins Fight Against Market Opacity

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

July 31, 2009
A Level Playing Field For Investors
By Sen. Edward Kaufman

Efficient and free capital markets are essential to all that makes America great: investment in private enterprise, the availability of capital to expand and grow our economy through innovation, and the ability to save for retirement in hope our investments will support us in later years.

Regrettably, we now have an unfair playing field for investors. This leaves us with, in effect, two financial markets: one for powerful insiders, who use high-speed computers and privileged access to information to exploit loopholes for profit, and another for the average investor, who must play by the rules and whose orders are filled almost as an afterthought. This situation simply cannot continue. It is the financial equivalent of “separate and unequal.”

Every day we learn more about the features of this two-tier system. Dark pools, collocation of high-speed computers at the exchanges, flash orders. Abusive short selling, the loophole of choice in 2008, was only the first sign of how the powerful on Wall Street make profits unhindered by the rules the rest of us must follow.

Here are just four areas where the SEC needs to act urgently to protect investors and restore market integrity.

First, the SEC should restore the substance of the uptick rule. This rule, a mainstay of investor protection for 70 years until it was repealed in June 2007, required investors simply to pause and to wait for an uptick in price before continuing to short sell. Without such a rule in place, investors who own stocks are more vulnerable to organized “bear raids” – abusive short selling combined with coordinated “misinformation” campaigns – which many believe contributed to the demise of Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns, key elements in the collapse of our financial markets last year.

Second, the SEC should implement tougher rules that will stop naked short selling through an enforceable system. Naked short selling is the practice of selling stocks without first locating or borrowing the actual shares needed for timely delivery at settlement, sometimes in a concerted action to manipulate a stock price downward. This week, the SEC made permanent a temporary rule they had enacted last fall, proposed some new transparency measures, and announced plans for a Roundtable discussion on September 30.

That is some progress, but not enough. Two months from…
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Dark Pools Refuse To Go Quietly Into That Dark Night

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

As expected, dark pool operators have responded, getting concerned that after the recent escalation in the Flash trade scandal, they are the next natural target. And what surprise that their only retort, as per this WSJ article, is that they provide liquidity, and make stock trading cheaper. Right down to the generic script. At least they haven’t used the mutual assured destruction defense clause quite yet.

Geoffrey Rogow at the Wall Street Journal reports:

Several dark-pool executives told Dow Jones Newswires that Mr. Greifeld’s far-reaching proposal would have calamitous effects for retail and institutional traders.

“Undisplayed liquidity adds to execution quality,” said Bob Gasser, chief executive of Investment Technology Group Inc., which is credited with creating the first of the modern-day dark pools roughly 20 years ago. “You can come up with all kinds of anecdotes, but the simple fact is, on behalf of all investors, dark liquidity adds to execution.”

Other alternative-trading system executives called Mr. Greifeld’s stance on the issue opportunistic given lawmakers’ recent focus on related issues, and suggested that Nasdaq OMX is acting defensively after losing market share to non-displayed trading venues.

And here is where the prisoner’s dilemma gets interesting:

Several dark pool officials also noted that both Nasdaq OMX and NYSE Euronext, which has also been losing market share, maintain non-displayed liquidity pools.

But as the NYSE has publicly disclosed, the SLP – that most questionable of recent NYSE liquidity programs has no advance look characteristics. So Zero Hedge assumes that the dark pool operators, in a preamble to full out exchange war are referring to some else. Zero Hedge would be quite curious to understand what that is, especially since the NYSE has been a vocal opponent of non-displayed liquidity.

Furthermore, as Ray Pellecchia disclosed to Zero Hedge recently, “we’re not aware of a way to re-route flash data from another market to the NYSE. To the extent that anyone sees flash data it would be in the context of their being a member of another (non-NYSE) market, and any resulting trades would take place there.

And some more tidbits from the WSJ:

As dark pools have grown —


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GDP In Pictures: The Truth

GDP In Pictures: The Truth

hellCourtesy of Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker


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The VIX Breaks

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

The VIX just went parabolic

 

 


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The "Money On The Sidelines" Fallacy

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

It seems these days any time a pundit is cornered by facts indicating the deplorable state of the economy, the traditional fall back is "…but the tons of money on the sidelines is just waiting for a 0.003% pullback to pour back in."

It makes sense to consider this argument.

I present Exhibit A: a chart of the Net Wealth of US Households. This is defined as the total amount outstanding in U.S. money market Funds and the total market cap of U.S. listed stock. All else being equal, one can see why the administration is so concerned with the market decline impact on the psychology of the U.S. consumer: confidence is the name of the game. Net Wealth declined from a peak of $22 trillion to just under $12 trillion in early March, and now, compliments of the bear market rally, has bounced higher to $15.4 trillion, a 30% decline from the peak.

 

net wealth of US households

Of course, and much more troubling, is that "all else" is nowhere close to being equal. When considering consumer wealth, one also has to look at the right side of the balance sheet, and as the Fed’s Flow of Funds Report indicates, consumer debt has not budged, and has stayed essentially flat as the equity market: the key component of consumer wealth has gotten decimated.

Exhibit B: Total Household Debt:

 

household debt

Alas it does not follow the chart in Exhibit A, not even closely. So the question is: what has been the bottom line impact on household "equity": i.e., taking the debt component of balance sheet and superimposing it vis-a-vis net wealth. The result is scary.

Exhibit C: Household Equity.

 

household equity

From the end of 2007 through Q1 of 2009, household equity has declined by 94%. Is it surprising that today’s GDP number would have been a complete debacle if the consumer had been left alone to prop the U.S. economy, on whom 70% of the economy is reliant? Obama pulled a Hail Mary with the stimulus: without it there would be no debate America is in a depression right now. The only remaining question is how long can Congress and Senate extend such Subsidy programs as Cash for Clunkers before the rest of the world throws up in America’s protectionist face.

But back to the money on the sidelines.

Exhibit D indicates the…
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Phil's Favorites

The dysfunctional debt ceiling and why we should kill it: 5 questions answered

 

The dysfunctional debt ceiling and why we should kill it: 5 questions answered

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is taking ‘extraordinary measures’ to avoid busting the debt ceiling. AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana

Courtesy of Steven Pressman, Colorado State University

Editor’s note: The U.S. government maxed out its national credit card in March and has been moving money around ever since to avoid running out of cash. Very soon the Treasury Department ...



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Zero Hedge

This Is Where The Next Recession Will Start: An Epidemiological Study

By Nicholas Colas of DataTrek

(Published at ZeroHedge)

US recessions are like epidemics: they all begin somewhere, and the “tell” is state-level unemployment data. For example, the end of the 2000 dot com bubble hit Connecticut and Massachusetts first – two hubs for the financials services industry with lots of affluent investors to boot. The end of the 2000s housing boom predictably impacted Florida and Nevada before the rest of the country. This time around, the data shows the manufacturing-heavy states of Michigan, Ohio and Indiana are most at risk. No wonder “Dr. Fed” wants to inoculate the region with lower interest rates.

When medical professionals study epidemics, they look for the source of the ou...



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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Suddenly Panic-Bid, Bitcoin Back Above $10k

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Following further selling pressure overnight, someone (or more than one) has decided to buy-the-dip in cryptos this morning, sending Bitcoin (and most of the altcoins) soaring...

A sea of green...

Source: Coin360

Bitcoin surged back above $10,000...

Ethereum bounced off suppo...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver ETF (SLV) Testing Dual Breakout Resistance

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Silver (NYSEARCA: SLV) has been in a bit of a slumber when compared to the price action for Gold (NYSEARCA: GLD).

Precious metals bulls hope that this about to change, as bullish action from Silver is necessary to confirm any bull market / move in metals.

Today’s chart takes a closer look at the Silver ETF (SLV) on a weekly basis. As you can see, Silver is up 5 percent this week alone.

This is good news for metals bulls. But this rally isn’t confirming a breakout just yet.

As you can see in the chart below, SLV has been trading between support (1) ...



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Insider Scoop

Analysts Weigh In On Netflix's Rocky Quarter

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) reported second-quarter results highlighted by an uncharacteristic decline in U.S. subscribers while international subscriber adds missed expectations. Here is a summary of how some of the Street's top analysts reacted to the print.

The Analysts

Mor...



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Biotech

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing - but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

Reminder: We're is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing – but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

A telomere age test kit from Telomere Diagnostics Inc. and saliva. collection kit from 23andMe. Anna Hoychuk/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Patricia Opresko, University of Pittsburgh and Elise Fouquerel, ...



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ValueWalk

Professor Shubha Ghosh On The Current State Of Gene Editing

 

Professor Shubha Ghosh On The Current State Of Gene Editing

Courtesy of Jacob Wolinsky, ValueWalk

ValueWalk’s Q&A session with Professor Shubha Ghosh, a professor of law and the director of the Syracuse Intellectual Property Law Institute. In this interview, Professor Ghosh discusses his background, the Human Genome Project, the current state of gene editing, 3D printing for organ operations, and gene editing regulation.

...

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Chart School

Gold Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Charts show us the golden brick road to high prices.

GLD Gann Angle has been working since 2016. Higher prices are expected. Who would say anything different, and why and how?

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.



The GLD very wide channel shows us the way.
- Conservative: Tag the 10 year rally starting in 2001 to 2019 and it forecasts $750 GLD (or $7500 USD Gold Futures) in 10 years.
- Aggressive: Tag the 5 year rally starting in 1976 to 2019  and it forecasts $750 GLD (or $7500 USD Gold Futures) in 5 years.

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if ima...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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