Archive for 2009

The ECB continues to mismanage the crisis and underestimate CEE

Courtesy of Cornelius at Zero Hedge

The ECB continues to mismanage the crisis and underestimate CEE

We’ve never been huge fans of Euro central bank policy and the recent news coming out is not doing much to change that view. The Europeans have consistently been the slowest in slashing rates and even now, are sitting at 1.25% in the face of further precipitious falls across demand, supply, exports, etc.  Many currency strategists are expecting a bullish move in the Euro in the short term due to the spread between the spot and swap prices (see below) but we have to wonder if that alone is sufficient in the face of the other macro factors at play. In other words, relying on the continued stupidity of central bankers is not the most tenable investment thesis.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
There are numerous reasons to continue to be bearish on the Euro, not the least of which is that we aren’t convinced that the full impact of the "CEE effect" has been priced in. The focus of this piece is not to do a full investigation (though there is plenty of material to do a full investigative piece) but we want to present some data for your consideration. 
 
First, the CEE countries are still extremely leveraged; for illustrative purposes, we compare them below to Asian countries in ’96.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
Second, this debt is owed to a lot of western banks (i.e. Euroland banks).
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Finally, the trade flows are extremely weak in the region. This of course is far from surpring when you consider the larger macro forces that we have discussed before.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
We have to believe it’s not a question of if, but when we are going to see a rate cut. A half-assed bailout package and a slow reaction to market signals doesn’t quite inspire confidence but eventually the ship has to come around. Right?
 




Weekly Wrap-Up

What a strange week.

Overall, it was a big, ugly "W":  We began the week at about 8,100, fell to 7,800 Tuesday morning, rose to 8,050 on Wednesday (hump day), fell to 7,800 again on Thursday and then back to 8,100 on Friday.  In summary – NOTHING HAPPENED!  We have that gap to fill on Monday around 8,000 (last Monday's gap down open) and, unlike this past week, next week is going to be chock-full of scary data points including Consumer Confidence and Case/Shiller Home Prices on Tuesday, GDP and the Fed on Wednesday, Jobless Claims and Personal Income and Spending along with the Chicago PMI on Thursday and Friday is still busy with Michigan Sentiment, Factory Orders, ISM and Auto Sales for April

It's going to be fun, fun, fun next week as another 25% of the S&P 500 are set to report and early on, we'll be keeping our eyes on the following:

  • Monday: BEAV, CHKP, GLW, ENR, HUM, LO, ONB, QCOM, SII, TZOO, VZ & WHR.  Evening: AXS, BIDU, FNF, FADV, HLTF, HXL, MAS, MTH, OLN, RCII, SWN, TUES, UHS, WRE, WRI and XL
  • Tuesday: AG, AMFI, AMED, AM, BDX, BMS, BMY, BCO, CRDN, CCE, CVH, ELNK, FMD, BEN, FDP, HCP, HL, KELYA, LAZ, LCAV, LVLT, MHP, NWPX, ODP, OXPS, ORB, PCAR, MALL, PCZ, PFE, SMG, SBNY, SPAR, STFC, TLAB, X, UA, VLO and WAT.  Evening:  ACE, BLDP, BWLD, CRI, ETFC, FIS, HTZ, MEE, NAL, PNRA, PRAA, RFMD, SUNH, JAVA and VFC.

So plenty to keep us busy but earnings last week were way better than expected overall and guidance was not too depressing so we'll have to see what kind of follow-through we can now get on that and if there is any gas left in the market to finally punch through that 8,200 mark or if we are still doomed to correct back to 7,632 in the very least. 

As I mentioned in last week's wrap-up, we called it right by entering the weekend 55% bearish despite the fabulous stick save of Friday the 16th.  In fact, I should have gone with my gut at 3:43 that day when I said to members: "DIA – 1/2 cover into the close it is then.  I wanted to go
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Back to the Future Recession

Courtesy of John Mauldin at Investors Insight

Back to the Future Recession

MV=PQ
Financial Innovation: The Round Trip
2010-11: Back to the Future Recession
The Fed at the Crossroads
How Did We Get It So Wrong?
The Trend Is Not Your Friend When It Ends
Orlando, Naples, Cleveland, and Grandkids

This week we look at the second half of my speech from a few weeks ago at my annual Strategic Investment Conference in La Jolla. If you have not read the first part, you can review it here. The first few paragraphs are a repeat from last week, to give us some context. Please note that this is somewhat edited from the original, and I have added a few ideas. You can also go there to sign up to get this letter sent to you free each week.

MV=PQ

Okay, when you become a central banker, you are taken into a back room and they do a DNA change on you. You are henceforth and forever genetically incapable of allowing deflation on your watch. It becomes the first and foremost thought on your mind: deflation, we can’t have it.

MV=PQ. This is an important equation, right up there with E=MC². M (money or the supply of money) times V (velocity — which is how fast the money goes through the system — if you have seven kids it goes faster than if you have one) is equal to P (the price of money in terms of inflation or deflation) times Q (roughly standing for the Quantity of production, or GDP).

So what happens is, if we increase the supply of money and velocity stays the same, and if GDP does not grow, that means we’ll have inflation, because this equation always balances. But if you reduce velocity (which is happening today) and if you don’t increase the supply of money, you are going to see deflation. We are watching, for reasons we’ll get into in a minute, the velocity of money slow. People are getting nervous, they are not borrowing as much, either because they can’t or the animal spirits that Keynes talked about are not quite there.

To fight this deflation (which we saw in this week’s Producer and Consumer Price Indexes) the Fed is going to print…
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Drug and vaccine makers on standby over swine flu

Here’s a couple more articles on the Swine flu situation. – Ilene

Swine Flu Confirmed in 20 People in the U.S., CDC Chief Says

By Hans Nichols, Bloomberg

April 26 (Bloomberg) — Twenty people in the U.S. have confirmed cases of swine flu linked to the virus that has spread in Mexico, and the acting head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said officials expect more severe infections to begin showing up.

Richard Besser, the CDC’s acting director, said the virus has been identified in New York, Texas, California, Kansas and Ohio. So far, the cases have been relatively mild and only one person has reported being hospitalized.

“It looks to be the same virus that is causing the situation in Mexico,” Besser said at a briefing at the White House. Scientists are trying to determine why the virus, normally transmitted among pigs, has been more severe in Mexico, where as many as 81 deaths have been linked to the infection…

White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said it was “far too early to determine” whether there will be an economic impact from the outbreak….

He said there is “no evidence whatsoever” of a connection to bioterrorism. Besser said all investigations so far point to a naturally occurring virus.

More here.

Drug and vaccine makers on standby over swine flu

By Ben Hirschler and Sam Cage

LONDON/ZURICH (Reuters) – Drugmakers said on Sunday they could supply millions of doses of medicine and were ready to work on a vaccine against a new type of swine flu that has killed up to 81 people in Mexico and infected around a dozen in the United States.

Roche Holding AG’s Tamiflu, known generically as oseltamivir, and GlaxoSmithKline Plc’s Relenza, or zanamivir, are both recommended drugs for seasonal flu and have been shown to work against viral samples of the new disease.

Tamiflu is expected to be in greatest demand should swine flu develop into a pandemic, as experts fear it may, since it is given as a tablet. Relenza must be inhaled…

The longer-term battle against any pandemic, however, depends


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Lecture By Eric Rosenfeld Of LTCM

Courtesy of Tyler at ZH

Lecture By Eric Rosenfeld Of LTCM

A great way to spend an hour and a half and understand just how black swans can annihilate seemingly riskless portfolios, especially those with a preponderance of Ph.D.’s as portfolio managers who claim to understand "risk". If nothing else fast forward to the 1 hour mark to listen to Eric’s discussion of endogenous risk and LTCM’s trading of liquidity in a crisis, and how it can all go horribly wrong when you have too many people on the same side of the trade. Prime Brokers, especially those of preferential banks, likely can see all the "liquidity" exposure from their counterparties and nudge their own institutions to react appropriately. (hat tip *.*).






The Insiders Are Selling Into This Rally…. Heavily

This is not good news for Insider Trading Buying strategies which tend to work best when the market has bottomed and insiders start buying significant positions in their companies.  The key is to be patient… – Ilene

The Insiders Are Selling Into This Rally…. Heavily

Courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain

Do you need to buy a vowel?

Again?

Keep the possibility of a significant monetary inflation in mind, with no advance in real terms but a handsome nominal rally.

Yes, they are that desperate and reckless and short-sighted. That’s what they did in 2003 in creating the housing bubble to save Wall Street and the financial markets.

But the greater probability remains that this is an engineered short squeeze that will fail about this level and fall back to the bottom of the trend channel.

Bloomberg
Insider Selling Jumps to Highest Level Since ‘07 as Stocks Gain
By Michael Tsang and Eric Martin

April 24 (Bloomberg) — Executives and insiders at U.S. companies are taking advantage of the steepest stock market gains since 1938 to unload shares at the fastest pace since the start of the bear market.

… While the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 26 percent from a 12-year low on March 9, CEOs, directors and senior officers at U.S. companies sold $353 million of equities this month, or 8.3 times more than they bought, data compiled by Washington Service, a Bethesda, Maryland-based research firm, show. That’s a warning sign because insiders usually have more information about their companies’ prospects than anyone else, according to William Stone at PNC Financial Services Group Inc.

“They should know more than outsiders would, so you could take it as a signal that there is something wrong if they’re selling,” said Stone, chief investment strategist at PNC’s wealth management unit, which oversees $110 billion in Philadelphia. “Whether it’s a sustainable rebound is still in question. I’d prefer they were buying.”

Insiders Sell

Insiders from New York Stock Exchange-listed companies sold $8.32 worth of stock for every dollar bought in the first three weeks of April, according to Washington Service, which analyzes stock transactions of corporate insiders for more than 500 mostly institutional clients.

That’s the fastest rate of selling since October 2007, when U.S. stocks peaked and the 17-month bear market that wiped out more than half


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The One Trillion Commercial Real Estate Time Bomb

Courtesy of Tyler at Zero Hedge 

The One Trillion Commercial Real Estate Time Bomb

Imminently, Zero Hedge will present some of its recently percolating theories about some oddly convenient coincidences we have witnessed in the commercial real estate market. However, for now I focus on some additional facts about why the unprecedented economic deterioration and the resulting epic drop in commercial real estate values could result in over $1 trillion in upcoming headaches for financial institutions, investors and the administration.

When a month ago I presented some of the projected dynamics of CMBS, a weakness of that analysis was that it did not address the issue in the context of the CRE market’s entirety. The fact is that Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (or securitized conduit financings that gained a lot of favor during the credit bubble peak years for beginners) is at most 25% of the total commercial real estate market, with the bulk of exposure concentrated at banks (50%) and insurance companies’ (10%) balance sheets.

But regardless what the source of the original credit exposure, whether securitized or whole loans, the core of the problem is the decline in prices of the underlying properties, in many cases as much as 35-50%. When one considers that with time, the underlying financings became more and more debt prevalent (a good example of the CRE bubble market isthe late-2006 purchase of 666 Fifth Avenue by Jared Kushner from Tishman Speyer for $1.8 billion with no equity down), the largest threat to both the CRE market and the bank’s balance sheet is the refinancing contingency, as absent yet another major rent/real estate bubble, the value holes at the time of maturity would have to be plugged with equity from existing borrowers (which, despite what the "stress test" may allege, simply does not exist absent a wholesale banking system nationalization).

The refinancing problem thus boils down to two concurrent themes: The first is the altogether entire current shut down in debt capital markets for assets, which affects all refinancings equally (for the most immediate impact of this issue see General Growth Properties which was not able to obtain any refinancing clemency on the bulk of its properties). The government


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A Compiliation of 21 Posts on Trend Days

Everything you always wanted to know about trend days, right here. Thanks to Corey for gathering up all the links to articles he’s written on the subject. – Ilene

A Compiliation of 21 Posts on Trend Days

Courtesy of Corey at Afraid to Trade

With Trend Days becoming more prevalent in the market, I thought it would be beneficial for you if I compiled some of my best intraday analysis summary posts and educational posts on “Trend Days” into a single, featured post.  Use this as a reference to brush-up on this powerful and profitable trading strategy.

Educational Lessons

Using the TICK to Time Entries on a Trend Day

Why You Should Turn Off Indicators on Trend Days

Intraday Leverage Ideas (on a Trend Day)

A Little “Trick” In February 8, 2009’s Trend Day (up)

Three Types of Morning Openings

“Bear Flags Galore” in SLV (March 18, 2009)

“The Most Perfect Trend Day Ever” on March 12, 2009

Interesting Lessons from February 20, 2009  “Almost” Trend Day Down

Quick Tips on Trading Trend Days

Trend Day Examples with Lessons

The Amazing, Surprising Trend Day (up) of March 23, 2009

A Powerful Trend Day that Failed – March 16, 2009

“Stepping Inside” March 10, 2009’s Trend Day

A Look Inside the Trend Day in GLD for March 5, 2009

Trading the Strong Trend Day Down on January 29, 2009

January 20th, 2009 (Inauguration Day!) Terrible Trend Day Down

Trading Tactics for July 29, 2008’s Trend Day

Yet Another Trend Day Down (with bear flags) July 28, 2008

July 24, 2008 Trend Day Down in the Dow and Ford

Trading the Strong Trend Day (down) of June 26, 2008

Trading Tactics for June 11, 2008’s Trend Day (down)

“Bears Take their Intraday Swipe” on May 20, 2008

Finally, check out Dr. Steenbarger’s educational post “Six Ways to Identify a Trend Day in the Stock Market.

The bulk of some traders’ monthly profits come from successful execution on Trend Days – while other traders get plowed-over on these days by fighting a prevailing trend.  Make sure you know as much about Trend Days as possible, do your research, and take advantage of recognizing these days when they develop – they can be very rewarding… or destructive.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

 





Commentary: Euphoria or the Obama Depression?

Here’s an article by my friend Timothy Naegele who believes that the economy will not recover in any meaningful sense, and in fact will become a lot worse, between now and 2017-2019. – Ilene

Commentary: Euphoria or the Obama Depression?

Courtesy of Timothy D. Naegele | Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune News Service

Former Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan’s "easy money" policies and laissez–faire attitude toward the regulation of banks and other financial institutions – a belief in self-regulation – gave rise to the housing "bubble" and our ensuing economic problems. When the bubble finally burst, a tsunami was released that has been rolling worldwide and hurting millions of people, with no end in sight to the enormous suffering.

Barack Obama is euphorically optimistic, but neither he nor the leaders of other countries can hold back an economic tsunami, just as mankind is helpless to stop the wrath of natural tsunamis in the oceans.

Obama supporter George Soros says: "There’s no sign that we are anywhere near a bottom." Obama’s business guru, Warren Buffett, believes the U.S. economy has "fallen off a cliff." Vernon L. Smith, Nobel Laureate in Economics, and Steven Gjerstad said recently: "The events of the past 10 years have an eerie similarity to the period leading up to the Great Depression." According to the Rasmussen Reports, most Americans – 53 percent, in fact – believe the United States is at least somewhat likely to enter a 1930s–like Depression within the next few years. If so, the repercussions are unfathomable.

Rupert Murdoch said: "We are in the midst of a phase of history in which nations will be redefined and their futures fundamentally altered. Many people will be under extreme pressure and many companies mortally wounded." Legendary former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, who now oversees Obama’s economic recovery efforts, said recently: "I don’t remember any time, maybe even in the Great Depression, when things went down quite so fast, quite so uniformly around the world."

While Volcker was referring to the global economy, he could have been talking just as appropriately about Americans’ faith in the Obama administration during the months ahead.

The "New Deal II," or the most sweeping expansion of government in decades that is being put into place by Obama and the Democrats, will only prolong the "Great Depression II," not thwart its progress. Franklin D. Roosevelt’s…
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Zero Hedge

Visualizing How Much Oil Is In An Electric Vehicle?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

When most people think about oil and natural gas, the first thing that comes to mind is the gas in the tank of their car. But, as Visual Capitalist's Nicholas LePan notes, there is actually much more to oil’s role, than meets the eye...

Oil, along with natural gas, has hundreds of different uses in a modern vehicle through petrochemicals.

Today’s infographic comes to us from American Fuel & Petrochemicals Manufacturers, and covers why oil is a critical mate...



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Phil's Favorites

Assange's new indictment: Espionage and the First Amendment

 

Embed from Getty Images

 

Assange’s new indictment: Espionage and the First Amendment

Courtesy of Ofer Raban, University of Oregon

Julian Assange, the co-founder of WikiLeaks, has been charged by the U.S. Department of Justice with a slew of Espionage Act violations that could keep him in prison for the rest of his life.

The new indictment expands an earlier one charging Assange with conspiring w...



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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...



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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!


Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!







Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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