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No-Thrills Thursday – Where’s the Kaboom?

Where’s the kaboom?  There’s supposed to be an Earth-shattering kaboom.

Well, it’s Thursday and the World hasn’t ended yet, contrary to the dire predictions we were getting last week and I guess that means you’d better buy some stocks!  We’ve been buying up a storm since falling below the bottom of our range with 50 long-term entries on our Buy List and another dozen longs in the first two days of this week including speculative longs (haven’t taken those for a while) on BP and RIG.  We even took two very bullish earnings plays on STP and JOYG – both of which were just way too low to ignore

JOYG was a complex spread from our 12:50 Alert to Members with a max profit at $55 but STP was a very simple, VERY bullish play where we bought the $9 calls for $1 and sold the $9 puts for .47, for a net .53 entry and no limit to our upside over $9.  Even if your margin requirement is 50% on the puts, you can pick up a single contract spread like this for $497 in buying power and your risk is being assigned the stock at net $9.53 but a move over $10 nets you a 10% gain in one day.  As long as you don’t mind owning the stock on a move down, these are fun earnings plays to make…

We didn’t expect to be getting bullish (and we are still well-hedged for the next fat-fingered fall) but at 12:27 on Tuesday, I posted the following chart for Members where I drew a line in the sand for the downturn:

Yesterday I noted in the Morning Post that we were completing that move down into the open so all we really did was follow-through with our plan to flip bullish for at least a bounce.  As we drifted along into the afternoon on a low volume move up, I re-examined the chart and decided it was a fine afternoon for a stick save and I drew this updated chart with the attached comment:


10,080 is the 0% line for the Dow and if I were Mr. Stick, I’d use that as my go point and jam the Dow up 100 from there, back to about 1,100 (on the S&P) so that’s the game(d) plan for the afternoon if we are getting back to the usual bullish shenanigans.  Which would be fine with us as we WANT to be bullish now.

The S&P finished the day at 1,098 and the Dow exceeded our expectations at 10,249 and we’re just waiting for the NYSE to confirm a recovery (at 7,000) along with that critical S&P cross of 1,100 to confirm that we have a real recovery and we are safely back within our predicted trading range.   Should we get comfortable with our outlook next week, it’s time to deploy a little capital on our more aggressive Watch List, which never got triggered as the market decided to throw a big sale on Blue Chip stocks, which we couldn’t pass up.   

The Watch List has higher risk/higher reward plays like MEE, CEPH, DF, GLW and a couple of dozen other stocks (with hedges, of course) that we think have lots of room to run.  I’m going to have a very busy weekend updating these positions if we hold our levels into Friday’s close.  I’m not expecting the market to run away and jump to new highs but, if  we don’t get our consolidation at the bottom of our range, we sure don’t want to miss the next irrational run-up where we can make some very irrational profits! 

For example, if you want to bet the Dow finishes higher than it is today on the 18th and you have a lot of cash and plenty of margin, you can play the DIA June $100/102 bull call spread for $1.30 and sell the June $100 puts for $1.05, which puts you in the $2 spread for net .30 with a 566% upside if the Dow holds 10,200 and you don’t have to give the putter a penny back unless the Dow finished below 10,000.  We don’t do usually do those plays, there are much more fun ways to make money with the leveraged ETFs but this is an example of the silly money you can make by putting your money to work for a couple of weeks if we begin to trend higher. 

I still have concerns as copper is unable to hold $3 (a big, bad sign for manufacturing) and oil is barely holding $72.50, which confirms copper’s weakness and the Pound ($1.464) and the Euro ($1.225) are not impressing anyone but at least our Yen trade is more or less behaving itself again this morning as the Yen bottomed out at 92.75 to the Dollar at 4:50 (later than usual) and has already climbed back to 92.45 at 9am.  Obama promised us  a stong Non-Farm Payroll Report tomorrow, so it better be more than the 500,000 I expected or we’re going to flip short into the action

Asia loved this prediction and the Hang Seng rose 1.6% (314 points) to 19,786 but we need to see 20K to be impressed.  The Shanghai dropped 0.73% to 2,552 and that’s a red flag but the Nikkei lept 3.25% to try to catch the Dow, moving back to 9,914 and the BSE got back over 17,000 with a 280-point gain on the day (1.7%).   Europe is also perky with a 2% gain this morning – pretty much all on a gap-up open and, like I said, not over any particular good news other than hoping the US economy is turning up.  In fact, the money parked at the ECB by EU banks hit a record last night, indicating a huge degree of fear among the monied crowd.  

I was unimpressed by the MasterCard SpendingPulse survey this week, with Clothing Sales off 3.7% and electronics and appliance sales down as well.   As I predicted 6 months ago in my "2010 Outllook – A Tale of Two Economies," the rich are getting richer as, according to the report:  "Luxury sales, which includes sales in restaurants, food stores, department stores and high-end retailers, reported its sixth straight month of growth. However, it was the first time it fell below double digits since January." 

With gas prices down 20% in May, the lack of retail spending is a huge red flag that cannot be ignored.  It’s what’s preventing us from being gung-ho bullish here so, as I said yesterday, we’ll just have to go with the flow and watch our levels… 

Correction:  I got a note from the Disney Corporation regarding Tuesday’s post and I can understand why they may not have a sense of humor about their financial situation.  What’s really strange about it is that they corrected me on the idea that they may have financial issues but did not correct me on my statement that they may be working their people literally to death but, in any case, I am happy to stand corrected by one of my favorite corporations:


The article that appeared on your web site concerning Euro Disney ( is inaccurate as concerns the question of bank covenants. The journalist who wrote the Telegraph article confused the debt covenants with flexibility mechanisms that provide us additional liquidity during periods like the current economic crisis. We provided him with the following statement that you will find in the original Telegraph article.

We are providing this statement to you as well for you to update your post and provide your readers with our comments:

"The strategy we implemented in 2005 has delivered steady growth up to the current economic crisis, where of course we have been impacted like all other companies in our industry. We continue to invest in the development of our Resort while paying down our debt as it matures. Our company is on track to repay over 500M Euros, which is more than 25% of its debt by 2014.

Regarding our debt covenants, we have met and expect to continue to meet our debt covenants going forward. To clarify, there is a difference between our debt covenants and the flexibility tools included in the agreements with The Walt Disney Co. and our lender that provide us with additional liquidity during periods like the current economic crisis."

Euro Disney Corporate Communications


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  1.  JRW & Co – Taking a stab at today’s lines for IWM: Support at 65.87, 65.58, 65.35, resistance at 66.34, 66.83, 67.16. 

  2. The Wild, Wild East:
    Shanghaied: The Flip Side of China’s Economic Miracle
    China has an monster Ethics Deficit to go along with that Trade Surplus

  3. Good Morning!

  4. Again not a science and one might have more levels than the next guy.  These are area’s I see of S/R

  5. Heads up on my postions:

    XIDE – Entered at 4 yesterday, out at 5.45.

    ZQK – It is right around 4.78, the low end of our exit range. I will continue to monitor this one. It is sitting at 4.76 right now. I am looking to pull the trigger here as soon as I see it break that line again.

    ENS – It opened at 23.36 and dropped to 23.31. It was well outside of our range, so I cannot pick up any shares. It has oved up nearly 2% since the open however.

    ERY – We are involved at 11.60. It has moved up on me since the entry, which I am not understand. Market is up, oil is up… This one will correct. Holding.

    Good Investing!

  6. JRW – What is your key to limiting losses? While I know you are patient to wait for the right set up, what do you look for once you enter the trade? I admire your sense of timing when getting out of "Dodge"…….  :)

  7. 66.35 and 66.71 could also be added

  8. David, nice job with XIDE!

  9. Phil – Comments on Same Store Sales…
    Good thing we moved away from a consumer driven economy…just hope Uncle Sam can keep it up…

  10. Good morning,
    IWM 64.68, 65.42, 65.87, 66.41, 66.78, 67.11, and 68.12

  11. Hi Phil/ Whats your opinion
    China continues to be in the red, despite good action, Commods and coals are weak today, tmr maybe a good time to lighten up or place hedges back on, on the obama good jobs number jump.

  12. 1020
    Good morning, If the trade is going my way, I will hold until my next line, if the move is still strong, I’ll double and wait for the next. I usually sell because we are approaching a line and weakening.

  13. JRW…
    The hard part is which lines to pick as there are several lines of S/R at least that’s how I see it..  Pivot today is 65.40..

  14. In TNA obviously (1/2) at $47.62

  15. Good morning!

    Wow, STP is the poster child for selling into the excitement!  $9 calls opened at $1.10 and dropped to .80 already and short puts back to .40 but I’m not too worried about them.  I’m inclined to buy the July $10 calls now at $1.05 if they want to sell them to me bacause STP would have done much better except they got screwed on the Euro crash (payments came in with poor conversions)

    Now we need to flip to a 3 of 5 watch on our levles (the bottoms) to flip bullish or bearish so we’re still watching:

    • Dow 10,200 to 10,650
    • S&P 1,100 to 1,155
    • Nasdaq 2,225 to 2,350
    • NYSE 7,000 to 7,250
    • Russell 620 to 660

    We really don’t want to lose any as we’re hoping for a strong move up but let’s not go crazy if copper can’t hold $3 or oil blows $72.50 but we’ll enjoy this ride while it lasts, hopefully to at least 1.25% gains today and, if we hold that, it’s still bullish for tomorrow.   We have inventories at 10:30 so we’ll see what happens then.  Fun data ahead for the day includes:

    10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
    10:00 Factory Orders
    10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
    11:00 EIA Petroleum Inventories
    11:15 Fed’s Bernanke: Small Business Financing
    1:15 PM Fed’s Hoenig Speaks to Bartlesville (OK.) Chamber of Commerce
    4:30 PM Money Supply
    4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
    8:45 PM Fed’s Fisher: Current Issues in Banking

    May same-store sales (actual vs. estimate), update #1:
    COST +9% vs. +9.4%.
    HOTT -9% vs. -8.9%.
    LTD +5% vs. +2%.
    SSI -2.9% vs. +0.5%.
    BKE -5.4% vs. +0.5%.
    WTSLA -5.3% vs. -5.7%.
    ZUMZ +7.1% vs. +3.8%.

    May same-store sales (actual vs. estimate), update #2:
    ANF -3% vs. -2%.
    AEO -3% vs. -2.2%.
    BJ +6.8% vs. +6.8%.
    BONT -1.1% vs. 0%.
    CATO +3% vs. +2%.
    DDS -1% vs. -2%.
    FRED +3.5% vs. +2.7%.

    May same-store sales (actual vs. estimate), update #3:
    ARO +1% vs. -0.9%.
    GPS +1% vs. +0.9%.
    JCP -1.8% vs. -0.9%.
    KSS +3.5% vs. +1.5%.
    JWN +3.7% vs. +4.8%.
    ROST +5% vs. +2.9%.
    SKS +5.8% vs. +4.3%.

    May same-store sales (actual vs. estimate), update #4:
    M +1.4% vs. +0.7%.
    SMRT -4.5% vs. -5.3%.
    TGT +1.3% vs. +0.9%.
    TJX +4% vs. +2.5%.

    May Monster Employment Index: +1 to 134, with growth +14% Y/Y. "The sustained expansion of job opportunities, especially in some large industries is encouraging. While some of this increase can be attributed to seasonality, the notable improvement… reflects a better job market heading into the summer months…"

    May ADP Jobs Report: +55K vs. +75K expected and +65K prior (revised from +32K). It’s the fourth monthly increase, though gains have been modest.

    Initial Jobless Claims: -10K to 453K vs. 455K consensus. Continuing claims +31K to 4,666,000.

    Q1 Productivity and Costs: +2.8% vs. +3.2% expected and +3.6% prior. Unit labor costs -1.3% in-line with consensus and vs. -1.6% prior.

    Finally!  The US economy is almost strong enough to allow the Fed to begin raising interest rates, but we’re not quite there yet, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart says. "As the economy continues to improve and financial markets find firmer ground, extraordinarily low policy rates will not be needed to promote recovery and will become inconsistent with maintaining price stability."

    The FSA fines JPMorgan’s (JPM) London unit was a record £33.3M ($48.9M) for failing to properly separate billion of dollars of client money from the firm’s accounts. "Firms need to sit up and take notice of this action," says the FSA. "We have several more cases in the pipeline.”

    Speaking of Pipelines: BP (BP) was not prepared for a deep-water oil leak, says CEO Tony Hayward. The latest containment efforts are not going well, and analysts now think the spill could cost BP as much as $37B.

    Joy Global (JOYG): FQ2 EPS of $1.15 beats by $0.38. Revenue of $896M (-3%) vs. $755M. (PR)

    Suntech Power (STP): Q1 EPS of $0.11 misses by $0.02. Revenue of $588M (+86.3%) in-line. (PR)

  16. yip: you have a lot of lines: 10,
    looks like it wants to break JRW’s 66.78.

  17. yip,
    I just provide the majors in the most likely trading zone; new lesser ones develop during the day anyway !!

  18. 10320 looks like a level on the Dow.. If we can break that AND 1110 on the SP500 we should go higher still

  19. JRR I do. I do.  Got a late start and rushed this morning.  As JRW says which is a great point… lines develop during the trading day.  The lines you have at 7am maybe have a whole new set of lines at 11am…

  20. JRW – TZA @ 6.59…did you see that 400k volume spike?

  21. Phil / Obama payroll #   He’s no economist and doesn’t have time to analyse the components.  He may be getting euphoric about the huge census # expected for May.  Going bullish ahead of tomorrow could be very risky, no?  ps all I read about in local Charlotte papers is public sector layoffs ahead (new yr budgets), how about NJ?  If we’re not building many houses, malls or offices for the next 3 years, while cutting state & local, how can there be meaningful job creation?  Pity the millions of new grads.

  22. Out of TNA at $49.08

  23. Watch that 666 line on the RUT – we don’t want to lose that or even show weakness there.  2,300 is key to take on the Nas and the Dow shouldn’t have real resistance until 10,430, whcih gives the NYSE a chance to get to 7,000 if it wants to be serious about recovering

    Wild East/Kinki – Good article!

    Go GOOG!  $500! 

    LOL Yip!  If you are going to put a support line every .20 then you are bound to hit them once in a while….  8-)

    ISM a bit disappointing, now we’ll see what holds but I’m out of short-term, unhedged, upside plays here.

    Good going David!

  24. Goldman,
    Be very careful shorting this market !! Good luck.

  25. out at 6.66…

  26. Too many lines and too many cobwebs this morning LOL.  Rushed…

  27. JRW – Yeah, trick is to never get greedy on catching the falling knive and getting a nice bounce…1% max for me.

  28. Back in TNA at $48.58

  29. JRW, when you enter, do you enter on a line or in the middle of two lines based on the direction?

  30. DIA Mattress:  Just rolled my Sep 102s to Sep 104s for 0.85.  Looking to take out 1/2 of my putters at around 10400ish

  31. Nice trade JRW..  I’m worried about going long being under the RUT 666, Dow 10320, and the SP500 1110 resistance levels if we can bust though those levels We are free to go higher and those lines will become good support…

  32. ravalos,
    I buy direction at the open or 15 – 20 minutes in; other than that I wait for a bounce off a line or a floor forming at a line.

  33. So DIS is a PSW subscriber? Interesting.

  34. BGZ (large-cap bear) is at $15.27 and I like them as a hedge here with the $14/16 bull call spread at .75, selling the July $14 puts for .95 and that’s a net .20 credit on the $2 spread with about $2.70 in margin so you can do a 10 contract spread for a $200 credit and $2,700 in margin (according to TOS standard) with a $2K upside if the market even twitches lower.  Worst case is you own BGZ as a hedge to a dip below Dow 10,600 (your put-to area) at net $13.80 (9% lower than current price).

    Copper down to $2.98, that’s why I’m worried.  FCX is believing it as they fall back to $67.95 but I still like them at $65.

    Uncle Sam/Gold – I loved shopping with my Uncle when I was a kid, a great basis for an economy!

    Opinion/Chyer, Tucsca - I think you get the gist of it.  We had a very nice run on our short-term positives so no need to push it.  Despite what Obama said, jobs could disappoint tomorrow (I would have been more bullish if he hadn’t said it) and now I’m worried that ALL the gains we had since pre-stick yesterday were based on tomorrow’s job expectations.

    DIA Mattress – NOW is a good time to get back to a 1/2 cover.  Now Sept $103 puts, 1/2 covered with June $103 puts

  35. yip
    I have a trend line at 66.55 as well, so R1, the line and then 66.41 for now

  36. yipcarl – I thought there was a good chance the SP would reverse at around 1106 (R1)…but if it gets past R1, R2=1116.  Right now I don’t like the lack of volatility this early.  It is hard to believe today will be a huge up day, as the census jobs "need" to artificially spike us up on Friday…at least for a few minutes…=D  Of course in order for me to make money, I have to turn off my logical mind (99% of it…running on 1% is difficult…LOL)…my motto is "Don’t believe everything you think"

  37.  Hi Phil.  New Member with a first post  and first trade idea for the group.
    TSRA had a good pre-announcement this week and I’ve written them profitably before.  I am looking to buy at $19.16 and write the Sept. calls and puts at $17.50 for $2.95 and $1.20 for a $15.00 cost basis and a 16% profit for 3 1/2 months.  Sound good?
    As a long-time covered call writer I love your twist on buy-writes and the disaster hedges are great.  Count me in long-term.  I’m having my best month this year by far.

  38. Gold once again getting bought on the dips.

  39. ok, phil, i’m too patient on TBT, still not in.  any new trade recommendatioins today on it?  i know it’s a bit late, but still have lots of volatility in June , perhaps can take advantage of it… how about buying Jan 11  TBT  39 calls and selling the June 41 calls.

  40. Out of TNA at $48.45

  41. Uncle Sam/PHIL – Uncle Sam hasn’t been so good to me, he keeps bullying me and steals my lunch money! LOL

  42. I feel due to Obama’s comments, employment numbers will disappoint……

  43. Phil / ‘Birth death model     Gamesmanship with the model can publish any bs # they wish.  Household survey and tax receipts tell another story.  But could the mkt be dumb enough to buy the bs and spike up tomorrow on more bs #’s employment #’s?, best since 1983 etc……   Do we invest based on reality or on the expected bs?

  44. JRW – IWM red candle from 61.8% to 50% Fib….but nice bounce at 50%.  It seems you got out at the death cross, around 10:20 @ 48.45 when the 10day crossed the 50???

  45. Goldman.. I concur.  My logic gets in the way.  As you can see JRW is just a pro with his methodology and lines.  Learning the lines and concept is one thing but actually getting a feel for using them and making the trades is more difficult and takes more practice…draw lines based on S/R, Demark, Fib, etc is one thing and not really hard to’s how to use them…

  46. SS, You around?  Are you playing one of optrader’s trades?

  47. Equity markets totally disconnected from currencies, wonder what the HFT are running

  48. Good time to buy SAM?

  49. Out of ZQK for a 4% gain. 

  50. Phil: I’m in the middle of reading old articles on PSW about the DIA Mattress play. Could you recommend an opening position based on current market conditions?

  51. yipcarl:
    If you do get a chance to do a write up and post on JRW’s methodology, it would be greatly appreciated by us all. I’ve tried numerous times to act on what I thought was how to do it, and failed miserably. We could title your masterpiece "WWJRWD".  YOU KNOW, What Would….  :)

  52. In TNA at $48.23 (1/2)

  53. Phil Hi,
    BGZ (large-cap bear) is at $15.27 and I like them as a hedge here with the $14/16 bull call spread  is this JUly ????

  54. Jbur….. I intend to do that for all of our edification!  I need a little time..

  55. They are finally catching up to my idea but I think a daisy cutter would do the trickNuke the oil leak in the Gulf? The NYT examines the process that would involve inserting the bomb underground "and letting its fiery heat melt the surrounding rock to shut off the flow." The risk factor is obvious, and Obama’s hands are tied because of his push for global nuclear disarmament.

    May ISM Non-Manufacturing Index: 55.4 vs. 56 expected and 55.4 prior (>50 denotes expansion). Prices index fell to 60.6 from 64.7. Employment rose to 50.4 from 49.5. New orders fell to 57.1 from 58.2.

    Apr. Factory Orders: +1.2% vs. consensus +1.7%, prior revised to +1.7% from +1.3%. Ex-transport -0.5%. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft +1.4%.

    With no agreement likely on a global bank levy or other action, the need to strike the right balance between cutting deficits and sustaining growth will take center stage at G20 talks that begin today. Geithner says the need to get the balance right was a "shared imperative" recognized by all members.

    The eurozone bailout slowed the Greek meltdown but may have moved the bull’s-eye to Italy, even though it has weathered the crisis well. The deterioration in its creditworthiness is small compared with other PIIGS countries, the costs to support its banks have been minimal, and its government has approved concrete budget cuts. But investors can’t ignore Italy’s heavy debt load.

    DIS/Eric – They’d better be, I sure spend my share at their place! 

    If we can’t hold 10,250 then we may as well go naked on the DIA Sept Mattress puts

    Welcome Revtodd!  TSRA is interesting at $19.10 but pretty thinly traded with wild swings so you need serious conviction to play them.  I’d go conservative and sell the 2012 $20 calls for $4.60 and the 2012 $17.50 puts for $4 for a net $10.50/14 entry with a nice 90% upside if called away in 18 months.  Good catch!   

    TBT/DMan – You are WAY too fixated on that ETF.  We’ve had about 100 great trades in the two weeks you’ve been freaking out about getting burned on TBT as it fell and then freaking out that you missed an entry as it went up – it’s just not something you should trade.  Really – not a joke.  Some stocks you need to stay away from because you are emotional about it or just can’t see the logic to it.  SRS is that way for me – I just had to walk away from it and move on to trades that make sense even though I still think SRS will double at some point, it’s just not worth the hassle.  Sure you can do that spread but we don’t know how long this low-rate nonsense can be sustained – we only know that it will end one day and that day may come with a terrible collapse in Treasuries and possibly a huge global crisis and that’s what TBT is about protecting….

    Uncles/Goldman – I think that’s Uncle Ernie.

    BDM/Tusca – I’m back to cash (short-term) and I’ll sell into the excitement if the move looks like BS tomorrow and, if we drop like a rock then we have our hedges and it’s back to bargain hunting. 

    Copper $2.947 while FCX slowly weeps….  You can’t go buying into a rally when key components are blowing up – it’s like running your car at 130 mph and ignoring the wobble in your tire.

    SAM/Dilbert – A little expensive for a beer co. 

    Mattress/HHFIV – as above, we’re in Sep $103 puts (now $5.60), 1/2 covered by Jun $103 puts (now $2.20) but that’s much worse than where we started.  Just be sure that, if we are over 10,300, you fully cover with the $103 puts and please note that these trades are NOT supposed to make money, they are only meant to provide you with a double if the Dow drops 500 points (5%) between now and Sept so your insuance is what you spend on the Sept position and we sell the puts as a way to work down that cost, hopefully to zero, over time. 

    Euro and Pound once again bottoming out into the EU close, they have pulled back to about 1.5% gains, giving up about 1% of the run this morning so maybe our selling pressure is EU profit taking – we’ll see at 11:30.

    I think a big difference between JRW and me is JRW doesn’t have "no play" days.  I consider today unplayable at the moment and newer members should be very aware that you need a very tight entry and exit discipline on JRW’s trades – it’s not dissimilar to trading futures contracts. 

    Speaking of futures – Oil inventories in 4 mins and the futures are at $72.85  A little risky for a futures play but you can sell USO $33 puts for .85 and worst case is you’re in USO at net $32.15, which is down 3% or about oil $70, which I think will hold into July 4th weekend.

  56. BGZ/Yodi – Bull call spread was for JUNE, not July.

    Big draw in inventories – NOW we can take the futures at $73.50 with that as the stop line (.25 trail).

  57. Just what is a flexibilty tool? That would be code doublespeak for?

  58. JRW last entry was amazing. 
    JRW was simply watching his level of 66.41.  Once IWM busted through that level of support JRW jumped on without the 1 minute chart with indicators helping at all.  I need to set up my other screens I’m missing trades because I’m not able to simple watch one chart!!! 

  59. EIA Petroleum Inventories: Crude -1.9M vs. consensus of +200K. Gasoline -2.6M vs. consensus of -700K. Distillate +0.5M vs. consensus of -100K. Futures +0.8% to $73.45.  Biggest draw in 2 months!

    EIA Natural Gas Inventory: +88 bcf vs. consensus of +93 bcf. Futures +2.1% to $4.517

    CEOs of Freeport-McMoran (FCX -2.4%) and Codelco say China’s plans to curb its economy threaten to reduce copper demand, further lowering commodities prices that have already slumped on Europe’s economic concerns. China is a "risk to the world’s marketplace in the near term," FCX’s Adkerson says, but its inflation fight "will likely lead to a more sustainable situation going forward."

    Dow volume at 11am is a very programmable 50M. 

  60. you mentioned MEE this morning, looks like a good day to scale in.

  61. If you look back on the chart of IWM you will see one reason why it’s stalling here.. Look at 5/28/10 and you will see it’s revisiting this resistance levels.  If IWM can push through the 67.20 area we go up pretty fast.  I assume if JRW isn’t already in from this level he will double down when it breaks 67.20 or if he’s not in at all he will get in there.  If the 1 min lines up…even better….  Any of you Fib guys pull a fib from the high on 5/13 to the low on 5/25 and notice where the 50% retrace is….66.87…. how about that???  Look at the 62% retrace… 68.08… just below the breakout area..  Amazing how it all lines up.

  62. HERO- a lot in of interest in this from yesterday- note a couple of big insider buys announced this morning.

  63. Oil futures stopped at $74 after run to $74.25.  That was short and sweet!

    MEE/Morx – Yes I do like them down here as long as you are thinking in terms of buying their coal and gas reserves for $3.2Bn for 20 years.  On that basis, who cares about an accident in 2010?  I like the stock at $31.28, selling the 2012 $30 puts and calls for $18 for a net $13.28/21.64 entry, so about 30% off if put to you and more than a double in 18 months if called away.

    Stalling/Yip – It’s all about 666 on the RUT! 

    HERO/Pstas – Crazy since we started buying, up over 10% in a day is way too fast for my taste so I’d cash the stock but keep the spread.

  64. What symbol do we use the check the Copper Price?

  65. Even though we had a big correction, there are many stocks that are still very close to the pre-crash prices (which were already on 52-week highs) so I’m not sure how many bargains we can find at the moment if the indexes hold.

  66. Anyone,
    Was there a recent play on BP and/or Transocean?

  67. Out of TNA at $48.44

  68. Copper- on TOS symbol is /HG

  69. Oil is dropping like a rock that’s tied to a rock that’s tied to an anvil now.  Not sure why other than EU close but they are back at $73 and a tempting long again if they hold it.   Same tight stops ($72.95) with a .25 trailing stop once we get over

  70. JRW… Why did you jump? Your line is 66.41 it hadn’t crossed it yet and the 1 min IWM looks to be turning up…

  71. Dilbert
    If you like the brew play, you may wish to check out TAP – has a decent dividend, lower PE, and the options are more liquid.

  72. Thanks pstas

  73. TNA in 48.22
    Held level and 1 minute looked good

  74. Phil – Do you have an indicator for the Euro that you follow in your charts?

  75. Newbie question
    In looking to enter the TZA disaster hedge (esp with mkt up) the idea of using the 6/9 bull call sprd and 5 put (curr @ ct of  .03 for Oct and .64 for Jan) appeals, at least to a novice.   In that vein why wouldn’t one opt for the 6/11sprd ( .31 for Oct and +.49 for Jan? Is the low/absent vol at these strikes a concern even though one might expect vol to incr as we move closer to expiry?
    Also, anything wrong with legging in by  scaling in an d buying the 6 strike call now and selling the 5 put now at favorable priv\ces and waiting for a mkt decl (incr in tza) to sell the 11 c?
    Thanks in advance,

  76. Phil:    Dman/TBT-- I think it’s called TBTOCD  :)

  77.  yip – JRW… I see IWM in a flag on the 5min chart… trying to break below the lower line now… could spell trouble if it does?

  78. Dilbert/SAM
    I love that company… it has been one of my best investments this year. I see a lot of future growth down the road, as they recently bought a very large brewery from DEO. Their growth and profit numbers keep on delivering, and the weak economy in the US is encouraging folks to stay at home, watch DTV, and consume their Sam Adams brews.

  79. Frog…just watching the S/R lines…

  80. Sold TNA 48.82.. I have a feeling we break out of this channel but that’s just a guess…birds in the hand…60 cents…

  81.  Yes… me too… that’s how I noticed the flag which is is forming around the 66.78 and 66.41 line – including yesterday.  The lines for the flag are the top is a horizontal at 66.90… and the bottom is sloping up connecting the lows (at about 66.50 now)

  82. Frog..  Got it… Good eye…
    I think we can call that a convergence of events.  When a you get two or more of a support line, Fib, a flag, a demark trendline… etc you have a convergence of events and that is the level you should have a great point of S/R.  Also a point to enter trades as JRW does when the index breaks through that level convincingly…

  83. Copper/Rav – I just bought some at $2.94, they tend to jump A LOT once they bottom and I think $2.90 should hold, where I would DD with a $2.88 stop.  Just happy to see $2.99+ to the upside.   I don’t usually play copper but that’s a stiff move down today and we have our jobs tomorrow and EU will likely announce a stimulus by Monday or maybe tomorrow so I’d hate to miss a good party if we have one….

    Oil popped $73.40 so stop now at $73.15 (.25 trail)

    Bargains/Rav – Well I think of bargains like that MEE play.   I don’t care what the face price is, I care about the net entry coming in where we want it. 

    BP and RIG/AC – Both yesterday.  Things are ugly at the moment so I don’t think now’s the time to chase.

    Euro/Gold – I just watch the FOREX chart for the Euro.  In TOS it’s EUR/USD.  I also have the Pound and Yen up next to it at all times. 

    TZA/8800 – It’s aways tempting to "go for it" but the chance of TZA getting higher than $9 is remote (need RUT down 15%) so you are giving up .20 for nothing other than a wish.  If that .20 is $2,000 and you spend that every 6 months chasing dreams then you give up $120,000 over your trading career and that’s money that doesn’t compound so, even if you are just up 5% a year for 30 years, giving up that $2,000 every 6 months costs you $287,000 in sqandered earnings potential.  At a 15% return, you are throwing away $2.3M so, the question is, is it REALLY worth the marginal risk to you?

    The biggest mistake option traders make is giving up a nickel here and a dime there….  Like gamblers in Vegas who get chips to play with, the small numbers on screen make the real costs seem unreal and very few people think about the long-term impact of a series of small decisions.  The Disaster Hedges are INSURANCE and are meant to lose money but not too much compared to the potential reward – like any good insurance policy.  Yes you can break it up and scale in but, until you fill in the spread – you are gambling, pure and simple so make damn sure that was your intention before you start because it wasn’t mine when I looked at the spread

    LOL Jbur!

  84.  Yip – yes I agree, whichever way it breaks probably will be a strong move imo… I’m just a rookie though so …

  85. JRW’s  66.78 resistance line has held all day.  

  86. Phil – assume USO puts further out are riskier without the summer driving season factor? Thoughts on TOT?

  87.  Looks like S&P is in a flag too for that matter – probably most indexes…

  88. FCX July $60 puts can be sold for $2.50 – net $57.50 would be a great entry but mostl likely we get $2.50 for nothing.

    USO/Brooklyn – Yes if demand isn’t way up by July 4th, all bets are off for oil’s floor. 

  89. Pharm…. my MITI play is moving up today. I know they are making some kind of presentation next week. Do you know of something that is pushing their shares today?

  90. Phil,
    Do you recommend a bullish play on Natural Gas?
    Buy UNG Oct 7/8 Call spread
    Sell UNG Oct 7 Put
    At almost no upfront cost.

  91. Trading GOOG         ….       anchors Sept 480c / sold 1/2 June 510 covers for 9.50. 

  92.  Flag is done… now on to JRW’s resistance

  93. Phil,
    What would be a good 2011 disaster hedge using SDS? I need another one besides TZA.

  94. EricL
    What do you say… Gold bottoms at 1200 again?  It’s was quite a level of support/Resistance for May, could almost have been May’s pivot…

  95. Most levels not holding only NASDAQ,whats up?

  96. HG/Copper
    Phil, do you use June or July contracts?
    I prefer to be careful with physical delivery futures :)

  97. aclend/ RIG
    yesterday i bot first 1/4 of position ( long stocks and short Jan12 calls & puts) because like the price of stock and price of options,
    but I think they can go to low 40s
    so how Phil teach, if you have enough cash and scale in correctly, sooner or later you will be reach :)

  98.  Thanks for the insight on TSRA.  
    Our you holding the JOYG play for more upside now that earnings are over?

  99. Hey Phil,
    Back home again, been spying the discussions as able.  Question of a vertical spread SDS June 29/32 which I bought several months ago and is nicely in the money (SDS 33.80).  I’m nervous about just holding it and potentially see my profit vanish in the next two weeks.  How can i best protect my profit, but not give away two weeks of theta?

  100. Gel – ASCO is next week.  I think people are diving back in.  ARIAD, CRIS, DCTH, ONTY are all holding up relatively in this market.  MITI is after ‘training’ the immune system to fight cancer.  Much like ONTY and DNDN.  This is a new frontier in medicine, and will work for some cancers, but I think it is a stop gap, as the body has an amazing ability to morph, just like bacteria/viruses (just not as fast).  iRNA is going to be the way of the future, but it will be after our lifetime IMHO.  ONTY is still my one of choice.


    /HG front contract is July 

  102. JRW… What are you looking for here?  You still bullish TNA?  I’m curious when you flip to TZA and change to shorting.. At what level or is there a level or is it just feel?
    65.86 is both of our levels from yesterday it’s also Fib retrace at 23.4%  dates of fib 5/13 – 5/24

  103. Nat gas/Lionel – Yes, I like that one.  They are forecasting over 20 tropical storms this season, it only takes one to spike Nat gas over $5 (now $4.50) and the next gets you $6, then $7…  The downside is the economy is so dreadful they can’t even sell nat gas but, even if it goes to $2, you just DD on UNG at $4 and wait….

    SDS/Jomp – Keep in mind that so far we have an intra-day sell-off, not a failure of levels.  SDS is at $33.78 and the S&P is at 1,100 and we don’t think they make 1,300 by Jan and that’s about 15% up so the lowest we see SDS going is 45% down or $16.  You can sell the Jan $27 puts for $2 and that means our risk on a rally to 1,300 is about a loss of $9 – keep that in mind.  We can use the $2 to offset the cost of the Jan $25/32 bull call spread at $4 and that puts you in the $7 spread for $2 with a 350% upside if SDS finishes where it is now or lower.  Let’s say that you go for 20 of those contracts for net $4,000 and you risk $18,000 to the downside (at 1,300) but figure we roll to 2012 $23 puts so call it $9,000 with another year of protection.  The upside on 20 is $14,000 back (+$10K) so you can protect $100,000 worth of longs from a 20% drop but if you have buy/writes with 20% built-in protection, then you can protect $200,000  worth of longs from a 30% drop and if those $200,000 are going to make at least 20% if the S&P is over 1,300 by Jan, then you gain $40,000 there less whatever you pay for the short side and THAT’s how the insurance is supposed to work.

    Copper/Lionel – July, June is over I think. 

    Still no volume to this move – 75M on the Dow at 12:30 so we can easily revers, be very careful!

  104. Minijoe/
    Thanks for your answer.
    But HG Junes are still tradable (I am in it)
    I guessed that Phil will just hold the position for a couple of days and expiration date is on June 28th.

  105. Yip, IWM also stopped its descent on the trend line from yesterday’s lows.  For now, at least…

  106. Thanks tchay. I got into some MEE instead…seems a bit safer for now.

  107. This is where I’m in a conundrum.  I’d like to buy here at 47.10 however I don’t believe there is anyway to tell it will hold this level.  I’l like to know JRW’s thoughts on how he would play this.
    I’m thinking he would wait till it creates a base and buy if it pushes up through his next level which is 66.41

  108. In TNA at $47.30 (1/2)

  109. In TNA at 47.30 with a stop right below 65.86 on IWM

  110. Yip/JRW.  My guess is that he is now playing a trendline up to his next level, where he might double.

  111. HAH!  I was wrong about JRW’s enter strategy….I guess we are doing the same thing!!!
    Good for me!

  112. Juda it seems that is exactly the case…

  113. RIG is really enjoying its admission to the SMI (Swiss index)
    Most of the other OIH components are 2% down

  114. Yip, Having watched JRW’s moves for 6-8 months, I have a good understanding about what he does, which unfortunately doesn’t translate into being able to do the same thing.  Me, I got in TZA this morning, sold half just now at the trendline from yesterday, holding the other half until the end of the day or until IWM breaks 67. 

  115. JOYG/Rev – Well, we went with Oct $60/July $55 spread at .95, now $1 so not worth killing there.   The sold July $45 puts were $2, now $1.40 so up 30% there is nice but, after earnings, we have no reason in the world to give that guy his $1.40 back do we?  You can always pocket quick profits on a trade like this (got a $105 credit per contract and we can get out for $55 and keep $50 for doing nothing after just one day) so it really comes back to – Do you have anything better to do with the margin (as the money is already in your pocket) for the net month as you stand to collect another $200 per contract or so by being patient….

    RIG/Tcha – Nice discipline!

    Back in oil on the cross over $73!

  116. Juda… You do understand…..You could have bought exactly when you knew JRW was buying and added a tight stop.
    Another thing…..This trading style is not everyone….That is for sure

  117. Phil, re EEM, looking to buy the Jan ’11 37 calls for 4.8 and selling the June  39 then rolling along. Thoughts? Thanks.

  118. "Never put in market orders – THEY will steal your money every time. "
    Some of the best advice I have learned here so far.

  119. yip: only JRW seems to understand that the last move in was justified, this is dangerous at the moment,
    its flar and a narrow channel.

  120. Yip, Your questions to JRW since you joined the board have greatly helped my understanding.  My hang-up is that I’m not as quick to pull the trigger as JRW --  a trading style thing — but as I gain confidence, I’ll probably get quicker.

  121. Woops, that’s net .45 back to cancel the spread, so a $60 per contract credit but same logic on waiting on the other $200.

    SDS/Humvee – Well tanned and rested, I hope.  The spread is $2.50 out of $3 so just take the money and be happy is the easiest answer.  You are now risking $2.50 to make .50 and we think 10,200 is going to hold anyway so it’s not like you’ll feel safer when we get back below 10,000.  If you think you will be missing out, take the $34/35 spread for .35 and you have another .65 upside if they rise $1 (S&P down 1%) and if you don’t feel comfortable making that play with .35 of your profits, then that’s your anwser, right?

    Oil did not cross – so sad.  Now hopefully we get $72.50 entry but still will buy over $73 too.

    Very nice set-up for another stick.  Preferably we drift here (10,200) for 90 mins (2:30) before someone says something nice and we fly up but maybe Hoenig says something at 1:30 so watch that too.   All the Fast Money guys say sell and that’s a good buy signal.

    EEM/Phlit – Those move pretty fast so a bit dangerout to sell calls against so just make sure you are willing to add to your longs in case you need a 1.5x or 2x roll. 

    Advice/RJ – Hey, that is great advice!  8-)

    One more run to S&P 1,100 and if they fail that, then it’s time to layer up the shorts I think.

  122. Yip/Judah/JRW – Getting the low price is my high point as I picked up a handful of TNA around 12:34 @ 47.12…I just don’t have the brass balls to hold it for very long as I sold at 47.45…a few minutes later.  I’m trying to learn how JRW holds for 80 to 100pts consistently, especially while holding so many shares. 
    So JRW, you don’t set stops…you sell manually @ market, correct?  And do you sell TNA in 10 blocks, just like your entry method?

  123. lflantheman
    Following your goog play but still looking to set my anchor!!!!

  124. Pharmboy, I’ve been following you in to VIAP since last year, doubling down over and over. Their results in mid-May seemed ecouraging so why the hammering?  I need to decide whether to cut and run or do a massive DD here in the hope that it’s a good place for bottom feeding.

  125. how do you rec an entry into EEM?

  126. Goldman, It’s a trust thing.  JRW trusts his lines, he trusts his method, which is why he will hold until IWM gets to his next line and decide based on the action at that line whether to hold, sell, or double his position.  Right now, IWM is walking right up the trendline from yesterday’s lows, so JRW would have no reason to sell at this point.  He would wait until it hits his next line or the move stalls.  And, yes, he buys/sells at market.  Pretty incredible at those sizes, huh.

  127. RMM not really.  He had a support level, waited for it to hold and bought.  I did the same thing, it has nothing to do with anything else, In my humble opinion.
    Juda..Thank you I’m happy i can help.  I am a believer that helping people helps you. 

  128. yip,
    I think 1200 is likely to hold, but the force of today’s sell-off is a little disconcerting near-term, especially with the Euro getting knocked back down. Also, it’s been unable to hold 1220 recently. So I’m watching but not adding just yet.

  129. yip,
    Bought it off the 65.87

  130. Goldman
    One reason JRW is so successful is because he focuses.  I don’t think he doesn’t want to answer questions I think he is keeping focused. 
    Anyway.. Juda I think explained it perfectly, Juda, YOU may be the one who needs to write up the piece on JRW’s method!  I’d like to share it with you guys before I post it.  I haven’t written it yet, trying to focus a bit myself now.

  131. JRW
    Exactly what I did. I had that level in RED as an extreme point.  I like that level becuase it breaks down you can get out quick.

  132. yip: just made a test: bought at  47.71 and set a stoploss at same, guess what happened ? it dropped and the stoploss saved me.

  133. yip: see I can influence the market

  134. We seem to have new resistance at IWM 66.24

  135. goldman,
    Mental stops. 10 blocks unless it’s really low volume, then I’ll cut it to 5 x 2

  136. Yip: whats a block and what is bot ?

  137. Last point.  Damn I post a lot I hope it helps..
    I think it’s all about the specialty.  Phil knows options like no ones business,
    Eric L knows gold
    JRW knows the IWM.
    Some of you guys know GOOG and know AAPL.
    I think it’s about studying and knowing one thing really really well.  It seems to me that leads to success.  Several years ago I ONLY traded HPQ.  I traded it for just about all of 2007.  I made about 70% over 10 months and had about 180 trades, 150 were profitable.  Why I’ve gotten away from that is beyond me.  That was also the year I was using this S/R methodology.  I guess I got to smart for myself and got away from it.  Being here has helped me refocus on this and watching JRW reminds me of a JUNIOR JRW(me) in 2007.
    TNA on the breakdown…Damn

  138. Phil,
    My S&P theory is resistance 1093 next level to hold is 1100 leads to stick up. Never piad attention to down moves my way was when in dout get out.  Goal is win down any  ideas on reversing my watch?

  139. Phil, do you have a favorite stick play at this level?

  140. Phil, well rested and 5# more of weight to work off…..
    Thanks for the SDS advice, it helped me clarify my thinking. 
    How about our stock of the century:  TASR  i’m in the stock for a 40% loss, short the 7.5 calls (up 75%) and short the 7.5 puts (down 115%); calls are the Jan 11.  Time to DD on the stock ? and sell more options?

  141. yip: heading for JRW line at 65.87, might be a reversal there.

  142. Block and Bot I believe refers to computers in the trading game.  Exactly I don’t know.
    RMM tell me next time I’ll go the other way.. Kidding.
    Please explain why you bought at 47.71, what was your thinking
    65.82 level seems to be holding….

  143. Phil – Goldman (the real Goldman) just raises jobs from 500k to 600k…so do you expect a spike Friday, with a fall later in the day.  MSM may paint over the truth of Census jobs (and birth/death rates)…but how could the big money? Do you agree with the Calculated Risk "Impact of Census Jobs" graph…does the truth on future jobs even matter??? (

  144. RMM
    Do you mean reverse down?

  145. JRW, when you get a sec, what was the reason to buy the opening, just a hunch on follow through from yesterday?

  146. RMM that line is an obvious point of support you see that right?  Do you use Fibs?  A fib support as well. 
    Moreover just a strong support level if you look back it’s pretty obvious. 
    AND yes there was a reversal I almost doubled down but didn’t have the stones…

  147. yip:
    first it was a trial to see that the MM resonds to my entries: again it happened,
    I entered as there was a good upward move heading for the next JRW line (which it is doing now again).

  148. Phil, I posted the following to your response this morning to my questions in yesterdays post but blog is inactive (my post is the last one) so I am reposting here…I appreciate your input when you get a chance.
    Phil, Thanks for the answer. I do understand that this is insurance. I have $170K in long positions–the ones we have discussed in the past (so the idea was to protect against a 20% drop with these hedges). I have been waiting for market to rebound in order to sell most of these positions into strenght, however the positions have lagged the ups and when the market goes down they have lost more than the market. At the same time the hedges have lost as per my post. So the balance I was looking for has not worked. 

    I didn’t realize I had to sell the hedges as you mention–I understood they were to be left alone for protection. From reading the posts every day, I have gathered that you are in a holding pattern, neither bullish nor bearish. 
    With this being said what do you recommend I do with the hedges (I also have the DXD and SDS for October), all in all I figured as I said I had coverage for a $30K pullback in value from the longs…
    Lastly, I am confused about the TZA comment: I followed the trade as recommended 1/1 June Calls and 1/2 July Puts,  just rolled it up $1 (which you mentioned back then I probably shouldn’t chase) but it was too late… but in any case I am missing something because i figure if I had sold 60 puts I would be even more under water on the trade as they have appreciated in value not depreciated?? 

  149. Phil –
    ok, a stick looks likely, but what about the exuberance we’re primed to expect tomorrow from the jobs report? How would that work with a stick today?

  150. shadiw: I meant UP and it did, but very dangerous range to trade now.

  151. RMM…come on you’ve got to stop convincing yourself…even if it’s a joke that the MM cares at all about your small purchases.  We know that JRW is trading HUGE and seems to be invisible to the MM so it’s not the MM.
    I think the reason you lost is because you chased.  You should have bought at the ‘extreme place of pain’ around 47.10-47.30  when the market looked to die.  You need to trust that extreme level as JRW does.  You missed that entry and then jumped into a move, hoping not to miss it, a move which was/is relatively weak.  I don’t like the price action now because it’s weak and just fluddering.  We are consolidating and waiting for a move up or down, I strongly doubt it stays here and closes.  I think they (the manipulators move this market up before close) 

  152. JRW/rip/judah – Did you notice the IWM trend line from peaks at 11:45, 1:15, 1:33…we just broke through it strongly
    Phil – Watched your Uncle Ernie video…the most disturbing part was watching that porter beer ruined by adding a raw egg…blashemy for a dark beer lover!

  153. lapper,
    Follow through plus look at this mornings RSI and momentum

  154. shadow and yip:
    another way to look at this is: there are these channels which go UP and DOWN between the JRW lines, if its a wide channel, that good, if its a narrow channel, its too risky,
    narrow channels have a variability of 10/20/30 cents ,
    wider (and safer) channels have usuually more than 50 cents variability.
    The challenge is to surf these channels.

  155. RMM.. this is my point.  What is dangerous is entering at 47.71, your STOPLOSS….. Entering at 47.30 is a lot less dangerous.  Where is a good stop entering at 47.71?  under 65.86 on the IWM, it’s the same stop for entering at 47.30. 

  156. Rip – JRW isn’t invisible to the MMs…he is the a MM on low volume…=D  Personally, any orders over 10k shares on TNA catches my attention, and any order over 28000ish on TZA.  I watch/rely on volume…probably too much…

  157. Not "rip"…meant "yip"…woops, sorry!

  158. RMM That is correct.  I added way to many this morning… I was half asleep but your right.  The difficulty is picking the major lines of S/R and as JRW mentioned early the lines get drawn or get substantiated during the trading day.  Our initial levels are either more or less pronounced several hours into the trading day.
    Waiting for IWM to push through 66.40 area my line yesterday and JRW’s today.  If this strength continues JRW will add the other 1/2

  159. Yip: my test did not lose $ but I tickled the MM, his idea is to drop down after I entered and cause panic to get out with a loss,
    the next time I get in after the drop and DD and as you see its moving UP.

  160. yip: Looks like its heading for JRW’s BIG 66.41.

  161. HK anchor play update: I rolled the anchors up from JUN 15 calls to 16 to take some cash out.  I got stuck with the full covers on the way up so I rolled them from 10 17.50C to 15 19C this morning at 19.90 expecting a pullback, then bought back the extra 5 calls at 19.60 for a small gain and bought more longs (uncovered).  So rolling like the waves with this one and profiting both ways, as per plan.

  162. VIAP/mrm – I am with you and have been doing the same.  They have money problems as I noted a few months ago, and are looking around.  Their article just came in Circulation, and the data are quite good, but the company is not sexy….to others.  I would not DD for now, as they need to find $$.  I am standing pat here, but would not throw more money at them.
    For the docs out there, this target is the same one as Zileuton – 5 LO.  Zileuton works, it has safety issues.  This compound is a newer version that was out licensed by ABT to VIAP.

  163. Phil  reading your comments on RIG I sold the 40/50 Jan strangle but I see now I failed to buy the stock to protect myself against the caller  today RIG is well over 50.00 what is your sugestion close the play as I am still more or less even or see what happens to the stk thks

  164. Gold
    Rip works…lol
    I wouldn’t watch volume like that… too much ‘noise’.  Again JRW takes away the noise by focusing on a few things….it’s my problem too, there is so much "Noise" to be distracted by. 

  165. Phil this is Jan12 Strangle on RIG

  166. EEM/Phlit – I don’t really like them at all.  If you want to go long on Emerging markets, you can go long on EDC (3x bull) which is down at $22.95 from $37 in April.   I like these because you can sell Jan $12.50 puts for $2.30, so you are good all the way to $10 (60% lower, 20% drop in China et al) and you can take the $20/27 bull call spread for $3 so that’s .70 on the $7 spread with a nice 900% upside if EDC moves up 15%, which is a 5% rise in Emerging markets.

    S&P/Shadow – I agree, this feels flushy more than anything but now a lot of optimism is coming into the jobs numbers and that makes me nervous so it’s a "no play" for me mostly except for some fun gambles on a stick.

    Stick/Robert – As I just said, I expect a stick but not enough to pay a premium betting on it.  We can’t even get paid on oil futures and they only cost $2.50 per contract (a penny tick is $10) so there’s no way I want to waste money guessing tomorrow when having lots of cash will let us make interesting plays no matter which way things go.

    TASR/Humvee – No recovery for them until global governments have cash to spend although crowd control may spur sales.  I’m sure even King Louis had an open wallet when it came to protecting the palace from the rioting peasants.  So, as a long-term accumulation, I’d certainly roll the $7.50 puts to 2x or even 3x the $5 puts at $1.30 as you get at least $2.60 back for $3.50 so the amount you raise your bais by (.90) is offset by the premium you sell (2x .50) and you put-to price on 2x at $5 is $7.50 + 5 + 5/3x = $5.83 (less your original sales, of course)  vs 2x at $7.50 average for almost the same total cost but you have 50% more shares. 

    TBT/Terra – Some day my rates will come….

    Goldman/Goldman – I think we’re having jobs fever based on the government hiring 450,000 people that will be laid off in July so if we get a big reaction, it’s likely to be an over-reaction.  I totally agree with calculated risk, we discussed this way back in March when we first started pulling census workers out of the Jobs numbers (yet another reason we weren’t buying the April rally). 

    Woo-hoo – oil finally gets it’s groove back!  Stop at $73.25 now, up to $73.50 as soon as we clear $73.60, if we get there.

    As we expectedKC Fed’s Thomas Hoenig: The fed funds rate should be 1% by the fall and begin moving in two more stages toward a goal of 4.5%. There’s a high cost to low rates, he argues; look at 2002-2005. Data suggest recovery is "more broad-based and self-sustaining" and maybe even stronger than anticipated.

    At least one technician says "We’re not ready to give up on the bull market" – noting, for one thing, that the small-cap Russell 2000 bounced off its 200-day moving average without heading lower, unlike the S&P 500.

    Goldman Sachs’ (GS) Jan Hatzius raises his U.S. payrolls forecast to +600K, from 500K – though that’s because he thinks the government hired 100K more census workers than expected, and he holds the private sector hiring estimate at 150K. Economists in Bloomberg’s survey expect payrolls boosted by the census to rise by 523K.

    All three of these items came out within 15 mins of each other – manipulated much?

    Improved economy or not, U.S. bankruptcy filings keep edging up – this month to their second-highest daily level since 2005. May saw 133,459 filings, up 10% from a year earlier, though bankruptcies tend to peak six to 18 months after an economy bottoms out.

    Cash heads for the exits from stock funds after steady inflows in March and April. In the week ending May 26, U.S.-focused funds saw outflows of $13.4B (and $3.9B from international funds), the biggest outflows since March 11, 2009.

    Three lunchtime reads:
    1) Ten takeaways from Geithner before G20 finmins meeting
    2) Warren Buffett’s shameful performance
    3) Set aside fears of inflation – just for now

  167. RMM Yipcarl
    Thanks! JRW a MM is wild to me, I remember him posting $1m up 2010. Do you believe there are bigger fish? I need to pay attention to vol and not just read Phil’s 2 or 3 posts a day to day trade.

  168. pump, pump, pump, POP ;  patch & repeat.  Love  it  !

  169. PhiL: You  say to sell as much premium now because VIX is high.It seems put premiums are very good but call premiums are skimpy. Agree? MRK 2012 $30 calls are $6.75 with $4.10 in the money and puts are $4.40 and $4.07 out of the money.I own MRK at $35.77 . Just sell puts and wait for better calls/stock increase? thank you

  170. Out of TNA at 47.58
    I just don’t have the stones.  Don’t like how it’s weak around the 66.20 which has been a pretty strong level… 
    Not a good exit, I wouldn’t suggest it but when I see a little profit and a waning market I have a problem holding.  If it breaks 66.40 and heads back to the next level I’m back in

  171. Correction I meant 66.20 and heads back toward 65.80-66

  172. yip:
    Hello trendline specialists: draw a line thru the highs at 11, 12, and 2. what is your interpretation ?

  173. RMM I don’t understand please clarify,,,,
    11am?  11 12 2 what? How do I draw a line through?  You mean a horizontal line or a trendline?

  174. TNA - Someone just sold 30k shares of TNA ($1.425M)…47.42

  175. Goldman don’t you find that a waste of time? Watch TNA rocket up now…

  176. and someone said thank you very much and bot that :)

  177. Phil I see your comments on TASR I am in a similar situation long Jan 2.5 c bought for 4.20 now 1.90 sold Jan 7.5p for 1.94 now now 3.40 . As I see it even DD the putter will give only 1.20 credit against the putter. This could put me in to double the amount of lousy stks at 5$.  Stk is only trading at 4.17 . Looks to me like beating a dead horse. Your thoughts pls Thks

  178. GOLDMAN!!! Case in point!  Within 1 minute of big block being sold TNA ROCKETS UP… Exactly why I ignore that.

  179. Here sticky sticky sticky….

  180. Yip – A large sale can predict an upward spike…once the shares filled at 47.42, the downward pressure can be relieved.  It goes both ways…and nah, I watch a bunch different things at once, four screens…makes it more fun!

  181. Back in TNA at 48.21 just playing the lines.. it blasted through 66.40

  182.  HERO sinking, MMS extends drilling ban to shallow water rigs!!

  183. BP "spill" speech spike – wonder if it will hold the market up, once nothing new is spoken???

  184. Goldman OH!  I see your looking at it that way….Man my bad I see how that could be telling…

  185. CNBC missed the news again…market spiked a few minutes before they cut commercial into the middle of the BP speech…=(

  186. Holding/Amatta – Yes holding but we flipped to Oct Disaster Hedges ages ago.  We did take some short-term disaster hedges but cashed them out on the big dip as THAT WAS A DISASTER!  As to ALL those disaster hedges – just cash what you can and reset them for October if you still need protection but you don’t want to over-insure.  If you only have $170K in longs and those longs are mainly buy/writes (and I sincelerly hope they are) then they have 20% built in protection so all you are reallly buying is subsidy insurance ON TOP OF what is built in.   If I have the above MEE play at a net $13.28/21.64 entry with MEE currently at $31, then I don’t need ANY protection on it until the market (assuming I felt it would stick with the S&P) drops 30% so it would be MAJOR OVERKILL to insure another 20% drop as that’s 50% and, if I really think the market, or my stock is going to drop 50% – why the hell am I buying it in the first place?  

    So, in my portfolio, if I have net $13K of MEE (10 contracts) and I’m worried about being assigned 10 more at $30 for a net of 20 at $21.64 ($43,280) - the only additional protection I need is for the amount LOWER than $21.64 x 20 contracts I’m worried about.  So if I want to protect against a 25% drop to about $15, I need $10K of protection so anything that pays me $10K on a more than 50% drop in MEE is going to be PLENTY of insurance.  With our disaster hedges, $2K would cover it.  Since the upside of the trade is $17,000, the $2K of insurance is well worth it. 

    That’s how you need to think about your insurance plays.  Take as little as possible and assume you will get NOTHING back – then you can’t be disappointed, can you? 

    On your TZA, I’m saying the putter is not even in the money, he’s all premium so you don’t have to do anything and hopefully he’ll expire worthless and you’re out with a small loss.  If he comes in the money, you roll him out to a longer month and down to a lower strike until TZA gets so cheap that you actually want to own it. 

    Now it really is starting to feel like they are trying to shake out the weak hands

    Exuberance/Snow – Maybe they want to Jam us back to 10,500 tomorrow morning and see if they can squeeze the shorts out and bring in a fresh round of retail suckers before the next big dip?

    Wow – Oil $74 again – What a ride and I’m OUT!

  187. JRW…no double?

  188. Goldman, And now you have the answer to your earlier question.  Having bought at the support line, there wasn’t a reason to sell until it broke back through that same support line, or reached the next resistance line.  That’s one way JRW makes his money — he keeps his mental stops tight on his losers and lets his winners run.  SS once asked him the percentage of winning trades and JRW responded something like 60%.

  189. Notice how the BP CEO doesn’t mention the "jagged" riser cut…as an engineer, I can tell you that the jagged edge is going to make it much more difficult to connect a new riser securely.  Good thing they don’t allow engineers to speak…the stock would be at zero…=D

  190. Yip – "That said, successful stock market traders tend to “win” about 55% to 60% of the time"…Goldman (the company) has averaged 63%.  JRW trades the same success rate as Goldman…the best out there!

  191. yip
     draw a trendline thru these highs,
    also: it reversed exactly at the pivot line and now a big move up under way,
    unfortunately I got a phone call from my son and missed it.

  192.  MMS extends drilling ban to shallow water rigs!! MMS denies short squeeze comming

  193. Oh RMM!!! Damn phone..
    Hey I can’t spend time figuring out what you mean please be more clear, I still don’t know what you mean.

  194. Out TNA at 48.49.  My trigger finger is absurd… I guess as long as I keep winning it’s fine..  26 cents more…

  195. The trick is not winning 60%, the trick is this morning I had a $1.50 winner and a 13 cent loser. My Rule #1 is the same as Buffett, "don’t lose money" !!

  196. RIG/Yodi – Well I suggest you buy either the stock or a lower Jan call then.  I still like them to recover long-term. 

    MRK/Dflam – Any big dividend payer will have poor premiums on the callers because they are handicapping themselves by whatever the dividend is each year.  I’m not so bullish on MRK that I’d want to hold them naked but you could see how they handle $35 but it looks like a possible death cross if they are rejected there so be careful. 

    Man, all you guys trading TNA are nuts!  There are so many great long-term set-ups and you spend all day going in and out of the same ETF over and over again.  Once in a while is fun or when there’s nothing else to do but you guys are starting to turn it into a circus.  Why not WAIT PAITENTLY for MAJOR turning points and take a stand?  Not every little tick the damn thing makes.  If you are not trading quantity like JRW, you could have made 10 times more money trading $5,000 worth of oil futures (2 contracts) today for a 75% reutrn on the day than all this messing around with TNA and you wouldn’t be taking up your entire day on it and missing other great opportunities.  Juat get a grip people!

    TASR/Yodi – Just wait and roll to 2012 when they pop up, certainly by Aug.

    Meanwhile, we do watch the Russell and they are hitting a make or break at 666 again.  S&P also testing 1,100 and Dow NOT too close to 10,250 and NYSE not even thiniking about 7,000 and the Nas is our co-leader (with RUT) but retaking 3,000 seems unlikely without some major jobs data tomorrow so the question is what are you prepared to hold overnight and, if the answer is you are not – then NOW is a good time to take money and run if we don’t break through on this run.

  197. For BP bottom fishers to consider:  compare the Gulf of Mexico oil spill and the Three Mile Island nuclear power-plant accident (from Dave Wilson at Bloomberg) which compares the drop in BP’s American depositary receipts since the spill began at the company’s well with the decline in General Public Utilities Corp., the power plant’s owner, after the March 1979 disaster. Based on the precedent set by GPU, a FirstEnergy Corp. unit since 2001, BP has further to fall and its dividend is at risk.
    GPU’s stock plunged 54 percent in the first seven weeks after the accident, a partial meltdown of the nuclear reactor at Three Mile Island’s Unit 2, and hit bottom in March 1980 with an 81 percent loss. BP’s ADRs, each representing six shares of the oil and gas producer, have fallen no more than 40 percent since the Macondo well began leaking on April 20.

  198. JRW aren’t you still in?

  199. Don’t know why my first post of this failed ( must have hit the wrong key)
     2:32, doubling TNA at $48.48

  200. Phil, come on don’t be like that.  Some of us do trade size, some don’t.  Market is tough enough as it is, we follow his system and make money, besides we like it. :)

  201. Phil is right BTW, there are other great opportunities, like IWM options. SS and Judah do those regularly and the last time I did that I got a double in 1 1/2 days !!

  202. Phil…Your right… I’ve just funded my TOS account with more size so I can start…
    The short TNA call worked out great BTW.. thx

  203. Oil/ Nice Play Phil.
    Are you holding copper still?

  204. Phil – How can I send you a private email?  Through the PSW "contact" page that goes to admin?

  205. Nice pop right to Nas 3K, S&P made it over the line but Dow not closing the deal at 10,250 and the Russell is still satanic. 

    AMZN made a nice move on deal with TGT but AAPL not playing and RIMM not playing so either dry powder for tomorow or indicators that this rally won’t sustain. 

    I’d be shorting here if I were a crazy day trader until the Dow shows us 10,250

  206. hi phil ERX was open in may and adjust on may 14 down to Jun 35/39 bull call,  should adjust down more and waht month should I choose thx

  207. 1/2 gone at $48.85; ready to reload

  208. Thanks Phil, Bought the RIG stk to cover my but

  209. Phil/TNA  Yeah, I wonder why the boys like to trade t n a…… ;)

  210. 1020 – 10/4

  211. ROFL 1020……talk about a mark up…ok, now back to our regularly scheduled program

  212. Last 1/2 gone at $48.82; appears to be failing R1

  213. Phil / UNG – nice call on that Jan 6/8 bull call spread last week.  you’re timing was fantastic as usual!

  214. Phil,
    Over the week end please take some time and explain oil futures to those of us new to your site. Also, I am interested in removing my portfolio from my current financial advisor, whose performance has been abysmal in the last year, and institute your Smart Portfolio Management III article, with some dividend paying ETF’s and Stocks (Safety is Paramount). My concern is that with individual stocks, a fiasco like BP is hard to contain, while with ETF’s, risk is spread to a basket of similar equities. Again, your advice is earnestly sought… I have been reading up on your articles as suggested.
    Thank you.

  215. Short oil at 75…?

  216. Phil/RUT pack.  Oh, I think it just has something to do with the comraderie of it.  At least, the posts aren’t lengthy political diatribes, and no one is asking you for a new TBT position every day.   But, point taken.  I’ve only been in one daytrade today, and I’d love to trade some oil futures, so I’ll read up. 

  217. 1020/Phil,
    Thats why I am out of TNA TZA. I have 1 SPY position That I hoped to close today but doesn’t look good. The talk and anylisis was getting out of control. The main worry was there are too many spies, I know I am watched, I’m sure this site is watched and the next thing is JWR’s system will turn on him because the real MMs can!

  218. The great thing about Phil’s site is BALLANCE; buy-write, spreads, hedges, day trades. I day trade @ 25% of my portfolio; I have to do something with the rest that is somewhat less intense !! A lot of very smart folks here, thank you all.

  219. JRW
    My day trades are 5-10% and I’m taking a vaction on that because the market is too crazy!

  220. Phil, would love to learn to trade oil futures… where do we start? Now you’ve started something.

  221. Sold Jul oih 104′s for 2.53 thanks phil a quick .80

  222. Phil,
    Just now saw your 2:47 post; NICE CALL !!

  223. I enjoy all of it myself and the crazier the better!  

  224. Phil, on second thought, since I’m still in Options Trading 201, and Hedging 101 classes, I’ll put off Oil Trading 101 until later!

  225. Phil: what will be the value of the callersjan55 and putters jan35 on OPEX in jan ?
    should the 55 strike be exceeded, what would be the adjustment strategy ?

  226. Phil / hedged to neutral  Am I write in thinking that any non cash part of portfolio should currently be hedged to net neutral mkt position at this time?

  227. .hey, that people think, drybulks go more down? If somebody looking for drys. Its possible to buy 4,5, sell 2012Jan 5 calls 1.47 and 5 puts for 1.82 for net entry 1.21 If go down you own drys 3.1

  228. In TNA at $48.66

  229. Like MA here, but markets not paying attention to the Euro makes me reluctant to go in too deep…

  230. JRW…you are so on it.
    AND Phil if I could learn to trade like JRW I would totally retire…

  231. yip,
    I am retired !!

  232. JRW – what was your career before you retired?  I though you were in your 30s?

  233. Phil/TNA_TZA trades.  Thanks for saying what I’ve been thinking.  These short-term momentum trades (which I also do at times in options) are very time and energy consuming, and they only work well if you are very experienced and if you are using huge amounts of capital.  If you are putting, say, 100K into such a trade and you understand it and have done it many times before, then it will work well.   But I agree with Phil.  Usually it’s best to find a trend, a target, a trade, and take a stand. 
    Yodi… depends on whether you want to chase GOOG.    I usually prefer a pullback before I get into the anchor on such trades. 

  234. Out of TNA at $49.25

  235. Sold a few extra HK 20 calls here, it’s well past the 5% Rule and I expect a pullback.

  236. Run my little GOOGly bear, RUUUUNNNN!

  237. JRW…Your my stock idol!!!! 
    I think you mentioned this before…How many screens do you use?

  238. goldman
    I built a financial services firm, pensions, insurance and securities brokerage, employee benefits.
    Damn, that was a flush !!

  239. Phil -
    what do you use/recommend  for trading copper?

  240. lflantheman
    I like your GOOG play  in small doses but we did not have any pull backs GOOG is up again 14.00 today. We possible get Phil’s famous stick again in 15 minutes. But tomorow Friday will be an other story.
    This play of yours surely can be made with other stocks as well.

  241. Arb spread – ME being bought by APA. down *% or so from the deal which is about 25.50…..buying the July 20s for 2.85 and selling a few July 20s for 1.55.

  242. Iflan,
    Well, on the other hand, it’s nice if everything goes to hell in a hand-basket, you can through 25% of your cash at TZA and make a net profit out of the collapse !!

  243. System/Lapper – I don’t mind if people follow it but I do mind when that’s all people talk about all day long.  There are many new Members who may want the occasional question answered and there are other things going on in the market besides TNA moving up and down.  I have already had complaints from people re. the TNA trading and it is getting to be much too much aside from being dangerous for most people to follow so I will say something when I see it getting out of hand.  For one thing, when too many people play the same position at the same time you leave yourselves subject to attack from MMs (and yes it does happen).  So, just like everything else in the market – I don’t want people here to be taken advantage of or get in over their heads on trades that can be dangerous. 

    Copper/Lionel – Just got out as it was getting boring and I don’t feel like staring at it overnight. 

    Email/Goldman – admin at philstockworld dot com – Greg can pass it along.

    ERX/Gucci – That one got ugly!  Wasn’t there supposed to be a put sale if they went lower?  I’d roll the June $35 call to the July $32.80 for + $1.40 and then sell the July $22.80 puts for $1.40 and then offer to roll the June $39 caller to the July $36.80s for + $1.60 so you pick up $1.60 on the trade and you are still in a $4 spread with no cost on the put side unless oil is below $65, maybe even below $60.  I also like this as a new spread.

    RIG/Yodi – Just keep a stop on the stock if they fail $50.

    LOL 1020 – Reminds me of my favorite TNA song

    Fiascos/Jsurti – A) DIVERSIFY!  No more than 5% in any single stock.  B) Don’t have more stocks than you can read the news on every morning (40 max for most people) C) HEDGE!  Also, of course, SELL PREMIUM, don’t buy it and BE PATIENT! 

    Speaking of BP – BP was NOT, I repeat NOT unforeseeable.  I have said for years that BP is evil and not only manipulates the oil market but has been one of the worst eco-criminals on the planet who are very happy to do business with Iran, Nigeria – pretty much any scum dictator that will let them exploit a nation and their people in exchange for suitcase full of cash.  Anyway – not knowing ANY of that – had you been an investor – as John Stewart pointed out Tuesday that BP had 760 "willful, aggregious safety violations" in the past 3 years compared to 8 for COP and SUN and 1 for XOM – BP was an accident waiting to happen and, had you been a dilligent shareholder, it should have been obvious.  The problem is the average shareholder thinks safety and environment is a joke that cuts into their profits and they think if they just vote against it then the problem is solved. 

    Oil/Maxim – Can’t short oil, there’s a war in the Middle East (pick one) and now they are talking about banning shallow oil drilling, which is nuts so too dangerous to short. 

    Well said JRW.   My concern is people coming in here thinking this is what they should be doing with their retirement money… 

    Oil futures/JBur – It’s not hard and it’s not dissimilar to JRW’s style but you don’t need to make a huge committment.  Remind me later and I can go over the ground rules. 

    OIH/Hia – Cool, nice non-greedy exit!

    Nice call/JRW – Yea for the 25 minutes until we whipped back up – as I said earlier, simply a "no trade" day, which I guess should be clarified to no serious trading but having fun on craps rolls is fine when you are bored and waiting for the Bots to reveal their coding…

    Mystery stock/RMM – I’m not even going to guess as it doesn’t matter.  If the stock is at $55 or $55,000,000 you still get $20 (the difference between the calls you own at $35 and the calls you sell at $55).  You generally shouldn’t adjust unless you think you are going to lose it or you are so deep in the money that it’s not worth waiting for the last dollar or two. 

    Neutral/Tusca – Yep, good move. I think we pop big tomorrow on a big jobs number and then we see what’s what.   Most likely the NYSE 7,000 puts the breaks on and then we give up 1/2 of the gains so maybe, if bullish, we settle at 10,350 on tomorrow’s close IF THE JOBS ARE STRONG (550K+).  If the jobs are not strong (-450K) - look out below!

    DRYS/Pahurik – It’s not so much about the volume or rates as it is about servicing debt for these shippers.  A lot of them are already in breach of covenants but the banks are in no position to do anything so they are skating along.  It’s very tricky to know whether a shipper is good or not but we do have a couple on the Watch List (under Portfolio Tab). 

    Retired/JRW – LOL! 

    Copper/Snow – I almost never trade copper but I watch it for an indication of market health.  When they hit $2.94 I was fairly positive they would at least retest $2.95 and since that’s a $5,000 profit on 10 contracts it was worth watching for an hour.  Oil is much, much, much more fun to trade.  FCX recovering nicely off $65 too!

    Volume is still a ridiculously low 132M on the Dow with 15 mins left to trade.  They should jam us up to the day’s high if they are serious about taking us up in the futures..

  244. HK/ mrmocha  If I have not said it before, I have been trading HK and following your posts on that stock since the first of the year.  Your guidance has been right on,  so   THANKS. 

  245. Today
    Bought back TZA June calls average in at .74 cents out at .51 cents…Thank you Phil!
    TZA made 79 cents or 1.5%
    Not a bad day…looking for a semi bad report AM market down 100-150 and then BOOM back up to close even or at highs…Rally next week commencing.

  246. The Rut-Pack – I love it! I’ve gotten some education out of it, though – pivot points and their uses. Even jumping in at 3:00 on my basic membership.

  247. Phil, i kind of agree on the TNA thing – i find myself a little less interested in the comments and blog with the TNA thing – I think it’s great that everyone id doing well with this TNA daytrade but it’s not for me (since i can’t watch the ticker all day) 

  248. Those USO puts are up 35% on the day (.55) so take them off unless you REALLY want to stick with them if oil falls back off a cliff.  USO is only at $34.24 so it’s not like you can’t get burned and 35% in 5 hours is still considered good money to most people

    Good job Yip!

    RUT Pack is very good, we need to make that official…

  249. JRW….Absolutely.  That’s why I use TZA for downside protection.  If you see the bottom falling out you can get into it quickly and recoup quite a lot.  

  250. GDX did not have a good day and seems to be struggling to hold over 50.50, so on that last little move up I covered my position further with calls. May be ready for a little bigger correction.

  251. Phil/boring plays.  I mentioned this once before, but didn’t follow up.  I’d like to add some dull plays, mostly to my IRA.  Is weekend the best time to discuss?

  252. Iflan/Phil: I think you guys are right.
    JRW/Yip: I think you guys are right.
    Let’s face it.  There are many ways to play this investing game.  If you can make 5% a day daytrading, why would you do anything else.  Also, you don’t need 100k in a trade at a time to make good money.  Toss 50k into an account and go trade e-mini’s.  If you are good you can make A LOT of money.
    I do not day trade, I prefer the longer term strategies because I don’t want to have to watch every tick in a stock.  And that works too.
    I guess my point is to not necessarily bash the daytraders.

  253. March 09 to10 the stick was clear to see mostly a feel but today is proof enough it is not predictable enough. Nowhere today and I see tomorrow down. I only play when it is firm and since the crash not sure of anything. I plan to check David’s overnights now that he is getting better at it. At worst you own the stock what I did on earnings, I own 2 up 2 down a wash last year 9 up 1 down!

  254. Hulk,
    I don’t like daytrading much either, even though I get tempted and I find myself doing it sometimes. Like a lot of people I started originally by day-trading stock and lost money my first year.
    I’ve just been a lot more consistent trading options spreads over the long haul, although I admire people who day-trade successfully.

  255. BP/ Phil     Regarding BP,  The dividend was high before the accident and that should have been a warning that something was wrong.  I learned my lesson in that high dividends are always not ‘free money" .  There is usually a risk-reward that must be measured with those kinds of stocks.  Even a simple stock like WHX that went from almost 23 to 17.5  should be researched carefully.

  256. stockbern,

    FWIW you can always collar high dividend stocks to protect yourself. With some light swing-trading of the collar options, you can often get them to pay for themselves, so then the protection is free.
    Limited upside, though.

  257. I should say you can collar them if there are options available (not always).

  258. Phil—got clubbed to death on XOM Jun 67.5 -70call spread. Do you think it has stabilized here at the 60  level to enter another spread? if so, what? thanks

  259. stockbern – Happy to see that someone else is following along, the HK trade (originated on Cap’s advice) has been working well for me for nearly a year.  You should also watch lflantheman’s posts, he’s doing a simliar anchor/swing trading model around GOOG (and I wish I would have followed him on that one this week!).  Like with JRW, I’m trying to find a model that works for me and then refining it.

  260. TNA/ flooding.
    JRW does not flood at all, he posts 5-10 times a day on that topic.  As long as he posts the levels (and yes we can all do them, but he does them better) that is all that is really needed.  His entries and exits are somewhat predictable, but still nice to see them.  Outside of that, if that is the problem, perhaps it should be taken up with those that do post often on that topic.
    What I am trying to avoid is Phil saying that’s it, no more daytrading TNA.  It’s something that works and makes money.  Phil does another thing that works and makes money, but it’s not for everybody.  I am a daytrader, trading Jan options does not cut it for me.  Yes, 40% a year is nice, but 4% per day and no overnights is priceless.  Sure there is risk, sure you have to sit in front of 4 screens, but that’s what we do for a living.  And might I add we are paying members of the site too.  Perhaps we can add a warning to less experienced members about risks of daytrading, but it’s pretty much common sense.

  261. All Hail JRW and his hoard of merry men!!!    Ok, NOW everything has been said that needed to be said.  :-) )

  262. EricL   Of course I’m not down on all high div. stocks,  Its just that BP was higher than most oil  stocks (pre-accident) and I was suckered in.  I agree with Phil’s above post, and their actions were reflected in their dividend.

  263. Mr.M,
    I haven’t been trading it but I do have an HK position. What are you doing exactly? Perhaps, I can benefit from your expertise.

  264. Phil,
    I felt good about RIG because BP said they woud pay. Why maybe BK and are they drilling the relief wells? Also do you think they will recover enoigh to buy back the putters for cost. I have made other mistakes but never deverted enough not to notice for this long. That was the last straw on TNA except the desaster spread and when I unwind SPY I will lower them also Thanks

  265. I agree on several premises here. I like to day trade ocassionally, when there isn’t much going on on the long-term side, or when a market move is so obvious you cannot let go. But I also like long-term strategies and the rewards of waiting patiently for some opportunities to present themselves. However, I do know that fine-tuning your "feel" for the market day-trading, developing/following indicators, constantly monitoring some ticks, etc helps you A LOT to develop your skills to find good entry points and good exit points, which is a skill that works on ALL investing strategies. It also gives you experience, which is very important when following any other strategy. For example, I recently created a custom study (an indicator) in TOS where I can monitor how many highs/lows the components of the Dow Jones are making within a time period along with 10-20 other stocks from the SP500 to assess the sentiment of the market in general. One thing is to see an index making new highs and another the individual components making highs across all sectors. Ocassionally, day trading helps you discover that some times you need the action not for making money but for other purposes (psychological purposes).. I find myself doing this at times where I realize it’s not really about the money but about the thrill, when I’m bored at work, or there isn’t much going on in my life socially, or anything. It is said that if you don’t diversify yourself EMOTIONALLY in several areas of your life, people tend to focus too much on the markets and as such, any little failure would cause you significant distress and emotional impact. I find that when I’m getting satisfaction in other areas of my life, I trade better!! This is a bit ironic but it’s true.
    Anyway I haven’t forgotten the fact that during one of these "gambles" I shaved 10% of my portfolio in a day.. so slowly I’m overcoming that and developing a better feel for the market. Also, it helped me a lot to go through this significant and quick market correction to understand that selling naked puts and considering margin only is not wise. Since then, I’ve been able to adjust my naked puts so that I have the full amount in cash if assigned, and also that I’d be happy to own the stock at those prices..
    So now I’m more prepared in case we get the Great Depression II. As Phil says, patience is really a virtue. You will only find it if you are getting satisfaction and emotional thrills from other areas in your life and let the markets give you oppportunities later on. Otherwise we would be looking for the action in the day-trading.

  266. TNA day trading – I’m new to the board and quietly doing my homework but I’m not new to the markets or day trading. I’ve day traded in the past and was able to recognize the TNA trades for what they are. I have no problem with having day trades posted but perhaps they should be in a different comments log specifically for daytrading since daytrading, IMO, is not consistent with Phil’s strategy and philosophy (which is why I, and I presume others, are members of this site). I fear that with day trades commingled in this forum, that the noise to signal ratio will become high enough to reduce the value of the forum. If the day trades were posted elsewhere, those that are interested (and I might be at times) could seek them out and the ‘noise’ in this forum wouldn’t be an issue.
    - Ray

  267. Ravalos
    I agree with you to the mmax I was down $4,000 yesterday and only $3,000 today on my spreads and that is why I am going slower after June 1 9and that includes my RIG wuck 60 putters. 75% of my net is in money market @.25% and 75% of the  25% is in stock, options are fun in moderation. I had to reremind myself of that last week.

  268. Boring/Judah – Sure but keep in mind that’s what the Buy List is meant to be.   If you have to look at a 2012 Buy List trade more than once a month then it’s not doing it’s job properly. 

    Bashing/Hulk – I’m not bashing day traders – I like daytrading too.  But, like Optrader, maybe JRW needs to have his own section that people can follow because it’s not appropriate for this Chat to be consumed by over 100 comments relating to going in and out of the same positon over and over again every single day while, at the same time, I get letters complaining that people can’t get the same entries and they don’t get the exits fast enough etc.  It’s very tricky to have people follow day-trades, especially on something that moves as quickly as TNA does.  Also, for many people, buying $10,000 worth of TNA trying to make 5% in a day (and if you are doing that constently that’s going to be $175M at the end of the year) is great but, as you can see from the math, it’s easy to make $500 on $10,000 or even $5,000 on $100,000 but you are going to start running into trouble when you are jamming $1M back and forth every 5 minutes – and, at 5% compounded daily you’ll be there in less than 100 trading days! 

    So it’s not about being anti day-trading but about keeping it in perspective.  Rahter than putting $10,000 on TNA and making 5% for the day, a person who was looking to gamble $10,000 could have sold 20 USO puts for $1,700 and bought them back at the end of the day for $1,100 and made $600.  That would have left them with plenty of other money to play with.  Forget the oil trades, which made insane amounts of money but there was plenty of money to be made shorting the DIAs when I called it short at 10:17 but, since there are already nothing but day-trading comments on the board, I was disinclined to make what would have been a very easy put call on DIA that is more easily in the reach of the average trader.  

    Even the silly sale of the FCX July $60 puts for $2.50 at noon is already up 10% in the day already.  I’m trying to teach people to take sensible risks and build diversified portfolios because there are a lot more people who survive playing that game than there are people who day-trade and if a dozen people want to spend all day swinging for the fences, that’s fine but that’s not what I’m trying to accomplish here.  Many Members flip back and forth between my chat and Optrader’s and I think that may be the best solution for the people who want to day trade TNA all day as well – I’ll have to speak to JRW about it but, by nature, if there is specialty trading that’s going to do one thing all day and require people to make 100 comments out of 250 it doesn’t make sense NOT to carve it out into its own section so we can accomodate more questions from people with diversified interests over here.  

    BP/Stock – Yes and look out below if they lower that dividend. 

    XOM/Drum – I thought that was a free spread with the sold puts?   XOM could be a huge beneficiary if BP does end up having to spin off assets and, as I pointed out, they have the best safety record of anyone since the Valdez (which was actually BP’s fault too).  I like a long play on XOM at $60 like the stock at $61.50, selling 2012 $60 puts and calls for $17 for a net $44.50/52.25 entry or go artificial and buy the 2012 $52.50/60 bull call spread instead for $4.40 and sell the Oct $60 puts for $3.20 and that’s net $1.20 on the $7.50 spread and tons of time to roll.  The Oct $60 puts have a net margin on TOS of $1,400 so you carry the margin for 5 months and, if all goes well, you release it then and you have a very nice upside if XOM can just hold $60 through 2012

    See, that play makes MUCH more than 5% a day and you only have to touch it once every 4 or 5 months at most!  If you take $10K and buy 10 spreads for $4,400 and sell 10 puts for $3,200 you have your money tied up through October expiration but, after that, you are only out $1,200 in cash and no margin and you make $6,300 (525%) in 2012.  That would be 105 net 5% gains in day trading but I can be doing that WHILE I’m doing 20 other things!  8-)

    Again, I’m not anti day-trading.  Not only is day-trading fun but it’s a valuable skill to learn as you can do wonders for your spread entries with just a tiny bit of good timing but it should not be your life or it’s going to be a very stressful one for most people.  Just like poker, there are people who have nerves of steel and can stare down pots that would make you cry and walk away with losses that would stagger you but, also just like poker, there are very few people who can do it and MOST people who try lose their shirts.  Even the people who are at the top of their game get wiped out on a regular basis.  Trading should not be that much like poker.  JMHO…

    RIG/Shadow – It’s just the risk of the unknown.  Also, a moratorium on deep-water drilling can really hurt them and a civil lawsuit that finds them even 10 culpable for $50Bn in damages can really wreck the company.  I don’t think those things are likely but I didn’t think LEH or WM would fail either, so I learned my lesson and consider the worst-case possiblities very seriously. 

    Well said Rav!

  269. SS, If you are checking the board, see what a lot of trouble you have now caused by highlighting JRW’s trades.  BTW, I should have given you credit for the term "RUT Pack."  :)
    Phil, As a early member of the RUT Pack, may I just suggest that the message has been received, no one intended to disrupt the board, and we will do our utmost to self-regulate our chatter.  See you all tomorrow.

  270. RIG – for those of you thinking about getting into this one on this dip, you should read some of the articles on SA about ATPG, it might be a better alternative.  Here’s one post on the subject.

  271. Biggest of THANK YOU!
    I have always waited for recovery esp. when it hardly matters till Jan. If you have noticed I was totally over the TNA chat. If JWR is not a MM his system is overexposed now. I get it, checked it out but no way Jose. I did swap a few 20 contract lots Held 1 3 days didn’t sleep well and I wake up at night 3 or more times from pain. 1 night, last Thursday, I  may have sleeped an hour over my TZA holdover. At breakeven I got out and am glad I did. I have done well on DIA day plays but they are $1,000 or so for $200 or so. I have never bought a lotery ticket and never will.

  272. HK – (aclend, stockbern), here is the trail of my trade, hope it helps you out:
    Original post
    Alert 1
    Alert 2
    Alert 3
    Alert 4
    Alert 5

  273. I agree with LAPPER completely and I like Juda’s post but I’m not clear about how to self regulate this and to what degree?.
    I was/am in most part answering questions to interested members.  Where are the members that are upset, it seems to me 60%+ of the members that post are in the discussion?  I sent 10 personal emails with charts about JRW’s methods to interested members and I’ve been asked by a handful of others for a write up.  Honestly doing this takes away from my trading but I thought it was in the best interest of the board, that I was helping Phil and JRW, and that I was part of what we are trying to accomplish here…learning to invest/trade more effectively and efficiently.  I don’t know but it seems that we have a guy -JRW – who is GROSSLY successful, isn’t that who we also want to learn from?  Just like we want to learn a trade(no pun intended) from Phil? As long as JRW’s trades are real (I have no reason to believe they’re not) we should be adding to this discussion, not taking away from it?  I’m a bit miffed and I’m not sure why it matters how many posts there are on this topic?  As far as risk there is risk in everything in the stock market and some would argue JRW’s method is a heck of a lot safer than buy and hold a mutual fund and others.  Tight entries, tight stops, and cash overnight.  I think we’re all big boys here(maybe some girls) and can handle it but again it comes down to Phil, it’s his show and he’ll run it as he likes. However now I feel a bit like I’ve been given a timeout and I’m not sure how to proceed when posting about these trades anymore. 
    I have a question. 
    JRW has a yellow highlight which means he is different that the rest of us right? What does that mean?  I assumed because of his color he was a contributor to the board and we were suppose to ask him questions and attempt to understand his methodology?  I thought he was like Phil in that regard? If not why does he have a special color?  I am in the process of learning Phil’s system as well JRW’s methodology.  I have also taken David’s trades.  I do not discriminate and I’m a little disappointed/confused about this being an issue.
    In terms of giving it it’s place… that might be the best course of action however JRW is focused trading all day and as LAPPER put it, all he really posts are his entries and exits and answers an occasional question( I REALLY HOPE THAT DOESN’T CHANGE)  so I’m not sure he would be up for that.  I’m really not sure of the solution but since it’s become a problem I’d would rather a solution be addressed then feeling like we’re going to get in trouble for posting on the issue..
    Hey David can we use your board it’s generally wide open as your trades are beginning  and end of day trades? :)
    None of my post should be construed as negative.  I’ve been part of dozens of groups like this and with Phil at the helm this is no doubt one of the best I’ve had the pleasure of being part!

  274. Yes a happy medium would be best!  JRW’s tracking of TNA is fairly new so hopefully a work in progress as things calm down but we need to strike a balance that is proportionate with the interest level of both the majority of the members AND ME, as I end up reading all these things…

    Market recap: Stocks bounced around and finally ended in marginally positive territory in cautious trading ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report. The major averages were boosted by a continued rebound in the tech and energy sectors, and NYSE advancers outnumbered decliners by about three to two.

    At the close: Dow +0.04% to 10254. S&P +0.4% to 1103. Nasdaq +0.96% to 2303.
    Treasurys: 30-year -0.33%. 10-yr -0.17%. 5-yr -0.1%.
    Commodities: Crude +2.17% to $74.44. Gold -1.28% to $1207.00.
    Currencies: Euro -0.77% vs. dollar. Yen -0.51%. Pound -0.29%.

    If you want a double-dip, go to Carvel, Daniel Gross writes. The biggest impediment to the recovery is "residual bearishness" and the resulting crisis of confidence. "Since this recovery began in the spring of 2009, it has been widely disbelieved and dismissed. Fretting about the double-dip is as much about where we’ve been as where we are."

    The "pickup truck indicator" is way up, a sign of economic strength, says AutoNation CEO Mike Jackson. "Pickup trucks are bought by small business entrepreneurs who have their finger on the pulse of the U.S. economy… They don’t buy until they see the prospects for business are brighter."

    Spain is making the right moves and has a much better chance of avoiding default than Greece, Simon Johnson and Peter Boone write, but the question is whether world markets "will be patient enough – and risk-tolerant enough." Because if recent market sentiment against risk-taking signals a coming global downturn, "investors will soon question whether even the safest havens are safe."

    Is Eastern Europe flying under the debt contagion radar? In Hungary, the deputy chairman of the ruling Fidesz party says the country has a “slim chance to avoid the Greek situation” and that the new government’s primary objective is to avoid a sovereign default.

    We’re mired in a "meat grinder" market that may last another six to eight years, David Rosenberg tells CNBC. "The worst stock market since 1937 followed by the best stock market since 1932 followed by the worst May for the Dow since 1940 – there’s a word for this type of market. It’s called a meat grinder. No return for a decade and yet plenty of sleepless nights on this roller-coaster ride."

    Intermodal rail traffic reaches its post-November 2008 high, making for a nice-looking Y/Y growth spike.

    Tech deals are coming back, says Merrill Lynch’s Chet Bozdog, citing CEO confidence, cash available for acquisitions and companies looking for growth. "There is a pent-up demand for transactions to occur," foreseeing a "robust" M&A pipeline, despite the crisis in Europe. Plus, "fundamentals within tech are very solid."

    MMS stops issuing permits for new oil and gas drilling in the Gulf of Mexico regardless of water depth, effectively extending the earlier suspension of permits for deepwater drilling into shallow waters. ESV -4%, HERO -6.1%, NBR +1%  THEN – AN HOUR LATER – The Interior Department denies that it has extended a drilling freeze to shallow waters of the Gulf of Mexico, contradicting an earlier report. Shallow drillers bounce back: ESV -3.2%, HERO +12.5%, NBR +3.5%

    BP (BP) says it achieves an "important milestone" on shearing a pipe from the blown-out Gulf well and that it could take 12-24 hours to determine success in capping the wellhead. Shares +3.7%.

    From a PR point of view, yesterday was arguably the single worst day of Warren Buffett’s life – one he may not be able to live down, Felix Salmon says. (earlier: I and II)

    A female banker files suit against Citigroup (C) after she says she was fired for being too attractive. She claims she was let go after being told that her choice of clothes made her "too distracting" in the largely male-dominated office. You decide.

  275. Degrees/Yip – I don’t know, as I said, we’ll have to feel it out but when we have 13 people out of the whole group making over 100 comments today on TNA trading – I have to say that’s a bit much, don’t you think?  I have to limit the amount of Members to maintain a reasonable balance of how many people I can speak to in a day so 40% of chat dedicated to 13 people (who are actively chatting) while other people are complaining they are sick of it is not a good formula for optimizing the site is it?  It’s nothing against you and nothing against JRW, who is kind enough to share his system with people but it’s about effectively allocating our resources. 

    Optrader used to trade in this chat like JRW, he developed a following of people who like to do swing trading and it made sense to give him his own section.  David’s picks also merit enough discussion to have their own section and it’s not to complicated for people who want to check in with David or ask David a question to click his link (and IE has table for multiple posts to be open at once anyway). 

    We’ll have to see if this is a persistant problem or perhaps just temporary as people adjust to the new system.  JRW has been posting these comments for quite some time and it’s only in this past week or so that we’ve had this frenzy of comments and today it got to the point where I decided to say something because if I see a problem I like to talk about it and find out what everyone thinks – simple as that.

  276. PHIL…GREAT ARTICLE ON BUFFETT…He’s another BS artist and in cahoots with the manipulators.  LIke Greenspan, he didn’t know the housing market was growing into a bubble.  Yea right my A$$. 
    OR Bernanke.. May 17th, 2007…
    "Given the fundamental factors in place that should support the demand for housing, we believe the effect of the troubles in the subprime sector on the broader housing market will likely by limited."
    OR Paulson July 26th, 2007
    "I don’t think it (the subprime mess) poses any threat to the overall economy"
    AND that chick suing Citi is nails but I bet donuts to dollars she’s HIGH maintenance and has a major TUDE.

  277. PHIL…thanks for the explanation, makes perfect sense….
    I think the reason is partially me.  JRW doesn’t say much.  I took it upon myself to open it up and start explaining and offering help, hence my email to you the other day.. I definitely help cause the problem but of course I was only trying to help.  Hey since I largely ‘get it’ as long as we get minimal JRW input and I can post a couple questions a day which may not get answered it won’t affect me……..actually it will I’ll have more time!! Thanks again for your feedback.  

  278. Phil – I have a forum idea I thought you might like to read…unfortunately, I can’t get the "contact" email section to send what I typed up.  Does Greg have a direct email link…any chance someone from PSW could contact me at and I will forward the information?  Trust me I won’t spam the email link with further emails, give it out, etc…as for many years I use to moderate numerous forums and help "RCON" admin some very popular online gaming servers…banning IPs, deleting vulgar posts, remote server resets, etc…and thus wanted to give you some information on some interesting software that made forum life easier over the years. 

  279. How’s wveryone doing? Finals week has been costing me some money not bEing able to follow phil’s oil plays!!!

  280. My two cents:  I don’t mind the TNA/TZA chatter, if I don’t want to read it I scroll down.  YIPCARL  I’d love to have you send me the stuff  you emailed to the other members.  I am always looking for new information, not sure that day trading is for me anyway.  Anyway, please send to :
    Ralph Delgado

  281. Since everyone has gotten into a cathartic mood today I’ve one more thing I’d like to put forth.  I alluded to this several days ago on one of my posts.  It has to do with reporting investment results.  I have been trading stocks and options for many years, and I’ve spoken with hundreds of investors about their methodology.     I can tell you that there is a tendency out there to overemphasize  positive results and to deemphasize negative results.  It is human nature. That’s one of the reasons I like to follow David closely.  His investment results are posted in real numbers and percentages.  They are meaningful, and they are good, so I listen carefully to what he has to say.  But when I post here that I made 45K or 32% on a GOOG trade you have no clue where that stands in the overall scheme of my investing.  I may have just gotten lucky and  posted the results on that one trade  Then less experienced investors on the site may emulate the method I used to make that 45K, and they may lose their pants.  All the while, my overall performance in the market may be dismal.  So concise reporting is essential, so that those with whom we communicate can understand exactly where a specific trade or type of trade, or trading methodology lies in the entire scheme of things.   "Can I make money if I do some of the things lflantheman talks about?"  Well, you don’t really know, because you don’t know what my portfolio looks like.  So it’s better for you and I to share ideas for investing, but probably not a good idea for you to try too hard to emulate me, or visa versa, unless we know each other’s real numbers.   And please don’t  misinterpret what I’m saying.  I’m not accusing anyone of false reporting, but rather everyone, including myself, of incomplete reporting.  I’m not sure how to make this better short of putting actual portfolio data and results on the site, which is not reasonable.    So I am rambling, and tired, and the two go hand in hand.  Thanks for the listen.  And thanks to all of you for teaching me new things on a daily basis. 

  282. JRW Stuff/Yip – Please send me your charts on JRW’s system!

  283. Phil – My 2 cents regarding JRW III & TNA/TZA:
    Perhaps it is time to add a "JRW III" tab at the top of the page next to Optrader/Swing trading portfolio and David Ristau/The Oxen Report.
    This way those interested in following TNA/TZA day trading can and those that are not interested do not.
    I believe what JRW III is doing adds value to your site, but I also understand that as its popularity and the comments have grown it might be time to move it to its own board.
    This would be a simple, equitable and economical solution for everyone, provided that you and JRW III agree.

  284. Catharsis, forum ideas/Phil – I really appreciate the trading ideas you post throughout the day, however I wish you would post them in one spot (perhaps at the bottom of your ‘IN PROGRESS’ blog post) and update the list throughout the day. I try to keep up with the commentary throughout the day, however I’m often surprised what I miss out on simply because I wasn’t reading the right section of the forum at the right time. I know this puts and added burden on you, but it would really be helpful to those of us who try to keep up with the forum and trade while at work. 
    TNA stuff/Everyone – I enjoy this discussion as well, however I agree it should probably get it’s own dedicated blog area akin to Optrader. 

  285. I may have effected the outcome. To me the issue is JRW has and hopefully will continue to post his levels as that is another tool and a system to watch. I will be first to admit I can’t do it all and the reveiling of too much explanation was too reveiling. That said maybe I’m parinoid. What occured to we was anyone who didn’t get it firsttime shoud never try it, but over and over ponding in simple lines that some didn’t get. I am almost 60 have mutiple degrees in engineering, business, economics, and accounting, The final straw was whoever doctor stating his version of S & R levels this morning. I believe he can be a better doctor by paying attention to medicine and I can tell you about many doctors that should loose theiir medical license because they read the computer and not think. Last fact that I am an expert in is bad medicine by experience. I have had the exact statement from 5 spinal surgeons. If that doctor wants to know or not my biggest problem is a lytic leison on C4 right leg too weak to walk, left arm worthless, know my life expectancy is maybe 7 more years based on 14 year average and coding, dieing,  on the table is why they won’t finish the job, and I don’t care about insurance, too many are in it for the money, I went to a premed school. Please understand I would trade this for any job and interaction with people again. This post is worth $250 per month to me because it gives me purpose. I am sorry if this or any of my rambeling has offended anyone but this and all posted has an effect on at least someone for some reason. My name is Nick and I don’t hide!

  286. Diamond…. I agree…  I definitely think it’s time for another tab, I think many would agree…even perhaps Phil…
    Power….. this site takes getting used too…it’s no where near as logical as Phil.

  287. For me, Phil’s trade ideas are in a pretty logical format. He posts all responses in chat in a blue box. All I have to do during the day isquickly check the chat for his posts in the blue filled box and then look for any bold comments within that box. I read all the other chat in the evening.

  288. Normal



    /* Style Definitions */
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    A comment regarding the day-trading:
    Phil and all – I am a newer member on PSW.
    I joined primarily to learn all I could from Phil’s huge reservoir of knowledge.  I also wanted to follow Oxen Group and Optrader and see what all was available on this site.  So far, I have been pleased with what I have seen.  I was pleasantly surprised when I saw that there was also a group of active day-traders on the site.  I have day-traded in a similar way to JRW, have had good success,  and day-trading provides a major part of my trading income as a full-time trader.  I am wanting to continue that part of my trading while I add additional areas to it.
      I would like to say thanks to JRW, Yip, and the others for sharing .  I appreciate them taking the time to share and have picked up a few things that have helped me fine tune my day-trading. 
     I also understand that many people on PSW are not interested in day-trading.
     My vote would be to definitely continue to allow a place for the day-traders.  I would agree with others who have said that the best way may be to add another tab that could contain the blog / comment section for day-traders.  Maybe it could just be labeled   DT  -  short for day trading.   It could function basically like it has been where the day-traders could share things with each other and help one another.  (Not giving JRW or anyone any additional  responsibility to have to answer ?’s, etc. unless they wanted to.  Because I personally would like JRW to continue to post as he does, and not be scared away by being forced to have more responsibility – if he doesn’t want it).   For those of us who actively day-trade with multiple screens having multiple browser windows with many tabs – having one more tab or window to look at is no big deal.
    By having a separate tab, the day-trading then would not be a distraction to you-Phil or others who are not interested in it. 
    Thanks to all who share their knowledge and experience in various areas.

  289. And now I know that I can’t paste something from MS Word into the comment box.  Sorry.

  290. Yip, I think the best thing to do is to just post levels in the am, and then limit discussion to potential stick or anti-stick feeling or just market direction.  Just worried that all this pressure will go on JRW now and he might just tell everybody to f off.  My lines are close to yours, but at times 5-15 cents off his.  Can’t understand why, and tell you the truth rather not find out.  A LOT easier just to plug them into the chart rather than second guess your own later, especially in the first 30-90 minutes.

  291.  Phil, how often are you actually having stocks put to you? Thanks

  292. Lapper agreed. The lines aren’t a science but I’m sure I can still learn a lot from JRW.  All we need him to do is what he’s doing.  Posts his lines and when he executes we can surmise from there.

  293. Lapper, Yip, I agree with you.  JRW shouldn’t feel that he has to be on call every day.  (He did say he is retired.)   About 6-8 months ago, SS started asking JRW for his lines, and I joined SS a month or so after.  Though we asked JRW for his methodology — teach a man to fish — and he explained what he was doing, JRW said he thought it was simpler just to share his lines.  So, he started to post his levels in the mornings and share trendlines he thought were significant during the day.   After a few $100K days for JRW, some suggested that he get his own color; Gel proposed Gold.  And here we are.  I’ve learned a lot more in the past few weeks about how JRW derives his lines, but I’d rather use his than calculate my own.  Maybe a write-up of JRW’s methodology would be a useful way to reduce the number of daily questions and posts, just as there are write-ups on the mattress play, PeterD’s short strangle/crazy play, Optrader’s swing trade method, etc. 
    I recall a few months ago, there were complaints about the number of people who were posting about short strangles and portfolio margin issues, and it was suggested that the short strangle practitioners should move to a separate tab.  I didn’t think a separate tab for discussing margin questions was warranted then and I don’t think a separate daytrading tab is warranted now.  But, of course, it’s Phil’s board and JRW’s time — their call.

  294. If, indeed, Phil decides to give day traders a separate tab, may I suggest that a small group of JRW’s assistants (yip, ss, judah, etc) do the actual management of that board, perhaps on a rotating basis.  For example, one of the assistants starts a new post, either early in the morning or at night the previous day.  This "Day Trader" board should have its own articles on strategies, as well as its own rules, etc., managed by the assistants.  JRW, the guru, can just show up and post his lines and trades, just like what he is doing now.
    As a "Day Trader" board, you guys don’t have to limit to JRW’s TNA/TZA/IWM.  If yip wants to go back to day-trade HPQ, why not!
    I think all PSW members can benefit from learning the methods.  That’s what PSW is about!  As far as I am concerned, PSW is first and foremost an Educational site.

  295. Phil the site is great !!! I have been a member for only a few months and have been exposed to more info than I could have ever thought possible.  I also like the fact that so many members want to help each other and want to share their methods and successes. I thnk your running a great service and am glad to be able to read along while doing the occaisional trades that I understand and make sense to me. I do like your idea to set up a separate tab for specific styles of investing. Just from an information organizational perspective it makes sense.
    Thanks again for allowing me to participate, learn and profit from your venture. I have more than paid for my membership fees from your advice and I really don’t have the words to express how much you have helped me to understand the best ways to profit from and grow my financial resources.

  296. Hi guys! Hi Phil, if you are reading
    Am a new member and so worth only ONE CENT opinion.
    Allow he day traders their separate tab….prob best for all.
    Phil’s comments are so valuable, I cannot say enough.
    However, it takes a lot of time and effort to correlate his comments to the questions.
    is there a way to place the comments together with the questions from members? Or preface Phil’s comments by the question being answered, still in the blue box, which I love BTW!
    Maybe there isn’t and that’s ok, but it’s like being in a conference hall. The speaker is ALWAYS supposed to repeat the question asked before offering a reply. Just good form.
    The site is excellent! Definitely planning to renew!

  297. As I have mentioned before; its been a crazy 2-3 weeks for me w/ some non-market distractions.  Still trading the market; but just too busy to post.
    On top of that I spilled Diet Coke on one of my keyboards the other day; and apparently shorted out a bunch of keys – this on the Imac.  So I have been limited to refreshing PSW on that computer; but no typing; no time to go out and get a new keyboard !   This note is being typed on my laptop at midnight !
    I did want to weigh in on the JRW / RUT / IWM / TNA stuff:
    1.  I enjoy the JRW Juday SS Yip etc posts.  JRW completely rocks this daytrading style and I want to understand how he does it and add it to my own repetoire.
    2.  As a day and swing trader, this fits w/ my style; but its not for everyone
    3. I understand Phil’s concern that lately it may be overwhelming the chat.  I am personally ok w/ that; but I too also want to suggest maybe a tab for this activity; although JRW may not want his own tab or the perceived responsibility associated with it.  It could be just an unmoderated IWM swing trade tab.
    4.  The problem with that, is that it is hard to follow multiple streams.  For example, Optrader is maybe the best trader that I know.  Yet I for some unexplained reason, never mastered his method; and do not often follow his stream.  I would love to have Optrader’s insights integrated into my daily activities, but most days I don’t just b/c I don’t have the time in what I do to follow his stream.
    5.  So, good luck Phil & JRW in figuring out the best way to go.  I do appreciate JRW posting his levels and his trades.
    6.  YIP — please add me to the email list for the charts you have been sending around; capcube @ gmail ; thanks
    7.  JRW, if you have time to send either a screen shot or SSPRO chart templates (I use SSPRO also) that would be great also.
    Finally, Mocha, congrats on HK.  I too, am stll in on various positions; a bit underwater on most. I Just keep on selling covered calls; daytrading some; and selling some naked puts.  A little too overloaded in energy names; got a bit too aggressive in the post oil spill selloff; adding HK ATPG EXXI BEXP HAL and RIG in various ways.   Made some good $$ daytrading RIG the past few days this week and have also sold some puts (sold some 45′s at 2.37 for example the other day).  Currently no stock position on RIG just some puts; that good change.   But bought too much and getting whacked on some like ATPG which as a deepwater play has gotten crushed.  Some of the swings in this sector the past few days have been wild and very difficult to trade.  Like, IWM, sometimes its just a question of S/R, as long as the knife has stopped falling.
    Sorry for the long post; don’t know if I will be able to post tomorrow during the day; good luck everyone.
    Oh, and still waiting on EMIS; should be some news tomorrow on NVS note; hope mgmt doesn’t screw this up again.

  298. As a charter member of PSW when it was still free and and just a glimmer in Phil’s mind I would like to state that the board has always been open to all and changed dramatically to meet the market.
    I have enjoyed JRW and the daytrading, even as I hold my longer positions and my hedges.  I have learned one hell of a lot from them.  I have tried to duplicate JRW and think (?) i may may be able to break even ( a great goal) daytrading IWM.  Today, I made 0.12 on a 10 contract investment traded 7 times.  Big deal you say – but it is.
    Teach a man to fish ….

  299. BP Live Video Feed @
    Seems like a substantial amount of downward oil flow at the moment with the cap installed…hope they get a tighter seal by Friday morning.

  300. Phil, just an idea re JRW SS Yip day trading posts. I agree with you that the sheer number of "day trading" posts tend to sideline or side track your’s. However,  I think that if properly applied JRW’s day trading can be pofitable.(which is ultimately the objective of the site)…even 1/2% per day on 20% of a portfolio on  250 days of trading (no compounding) will earn an overall return of 25% on the whole portfolio. So I definitely reccommend that the RUT pack continues posting. I do not agree that they "self discipline " themselves and post only scarcely as by its very nature day trading involves numerous trades per day each requiring at least two posts (the entry and exit post) apart from other posts to answer queries  etc.
    Rather than having their own tab, which would probably be putting too much of a burthen on an already "generous" JRW, I would suggest that day trading posts are made in their present format but  in David’sOxen  tab rather than Phil’s already crowded post.. After all a good number of David’s reccos are day trades. Also the daily number of posts in David ‘s tab is always less than twenty. It will also serve as exposure of David’s very educational and valid articles to a wider set of subscribers.
    Also a writeup by JRW summarising the basics of his strategy would probably help in reducing queries as new members or repeated questions can be directed to it.
    Obviously this is merely a suggestion and it is  Phil and David’s call…..

  301. Well, one more comment for you Phil and the daytrading commentary….I do get distracted by the volume of posts seeking explanation, expressing frustration and/or celebration of lines and trades.  Granted, there is value in posting trades and lines and I personally value those postings.  I just think the sidebar commentary where someone’s feeling is expressed is not particularly value-added, and essentially clogs up what is already a very busy throughway of information..  One simple solution for the RUT Pack is to simply exchange Instant Message ID’s and chat their feelings of approaching lines and trades in real-time off the blog.  The value of PSW for me is the market picture and tone established rather consistently from your opening piece in the morning, and tuned throughout the day.  Having support lines on IWM/TNA/TZA is very helpful in making that picture, but I have to agree that the sidebar commentary is probably better for the RUT Pack and the rest of us placed in another venue, that hopefully is open to all who have an interest in that dialogue.  For me, the richness of the subscription is in the breadth and tapestry of commentary which allows me to hone my own view of the market character, and the single trade thread is exactly that:  only one thread.  Of course, since presumably everyone is paying rent to be able to hit the enter key with whatever comment they wish, informed and value-add or not, I suppose we’ll just have to put up with your version of democracy in action!

  302. Phil/Rutpack
    I have enjoyed the daytrading post, however I do find them a bit of a pain to slog through. Not really my interest but I have learned from it – using support & resistance to enhance my entries stc. I have followed Optraders tab the last few months, and that’s interesting as well, but again, not my method given the amount of effort/time requirement. I’d suggest the Rutpack be given their own color so they could be skipped easier. or alternatively their own tab.
    Overall, the site has been great for me, I believe I’ve greatly improved my investment skill and that’s what I was after. As a suggestion for Phil I’d typically appreciate some discussion from time to time on exiting trades – legging out one leg at a time, rolling out the call and letting the caller expire etc, exiting a complex spread etc.

  303. Wow – looks like I picked the wrong morning to get a late start!

    This is a good discussion and JRW and I will be putting our heads together over the weekend.  Please continue chat on that topic here for now, not the Friday morning post – which I’d better write now.

    If you had a non-JRW question, feel free to re-post it under the new post and I’ll catch up at some point but this morning is going to be nuts with jobs etc…

  304. Phil / JRW / TZA / TNA – I’m disappointed to hear you did not post your DIA put call (see below) on Thurs.  it would have been a great play seeing as how the market is tanking today.  Please resolve this issue asap so we do not miss out on any more of your well-timed recommendations.  I do not have time to day trade but do have time to take one or two directional option bets during the day.   Thanks. 
    "since there are already nothing but day-trading comments on the board, I was disinclined to make what would have been a very easy put call on DIA that is more easily in the reach of the average trader.  "

  305. Obama's Cinderella complex