Archive for 2010

The Long View of the US Economy

Courtesy of madhedgefundtrader

The retirement of the baby boomers, and the reduced numbers and frugal spending patterns of Generation X, are not only bad news for the real estate market for the next 20 years, they are going to be a huge drag on the economy as a whole.

The distinguished economist, Robert J. Gordon, of Northwestern University in Chicago, argues that we are entering the slowest growth period in US history. Per capita GDP grew at a healthy 2.44% annual rate during 1928-1972, then downshifted to 1.93% from 1972 to 2007.  He expects it to fall further to 1.5% during the next two decades. By 2027, US GDP will be only 35% higher than it is today. They must be laughing in Beijing.

Past generational slowdowns like this were offset by the huge productivity increases delivered by rising education levels. That won’t bail us out this time. Distressed state and local finances are pushing the public sector into 20 years of cost cutting that is sending education spending plummeting, leading to the great “dumbing down” of America. No productivity gains here. There isn’t enough new technology being invented to take up the slack.

This is why I have been urging traders and investors to get their money the hell out of the US since the inception of this letter. Get it into emerging markets, emerging market debt, foreign currencies like the Australian and Canadian dollars, commodities, precious metals, and food. Rallies in US markets should be viewed only as trading ones which are to be sold into. Only invest here when you are compensated for the higher risk you are taking, such as in technology, energy, commodities, and solar companies, along with junk bonds. Keep your passport up to date, and better start taking those night classes in Portuguese, Russian, Hindi, and Mandarin.

To see the data, charts, and graphs that support this research piece, as well as more iconoclastic and out-of-consensus analysis, please visit me at www.madhedgefundtrader.com . There, you will find the conventional wisdom mercilessly flailed and tortured daily, and my last two years of research reports available for free. You can also listen to me on Hedge Fund Radio by clicking on “This Week on Hedge Fund Radio” in the upper right corner of my home page.





4closureFraud – Full Video Deposition of Crystal Moore of Nationwide Title Clearing

Courtesy of 4closureFraud

This deposition was taken on November 4, 2010 in Pinellas County, Florida, by attorney Christopher Forrest of The Forrest Law Firm and has to be one of the most damning yet.

The reason I say “yet” is because Bryan Bly’s video deposition is coming up next…

Below is the the video Deposition of Crystal Moore with some background info…

It is going to be a hell of a week!

~

Crystal Moore Deposition Part 1

 

Crystal Moore Deposition Part 2

 

Crystal Moore Deposition Part 3

 

Crystal Moore Deposition Part 4

 

~

Outrageous?

Some background…

Bryan Bly, is it a LIE? Robo-Signer for Nationwide Title

Posted by Foreclosure Fraud on June 20, 2010 ·

By Susan Taylor Martin, Times Senior Correspondent In Print: Sunday, June 20, 2010 To thousands of homeowners whose loans have been shuttled from one company to another, the name “Bryan Bly” is very familiar. Over the past few years, Bly has signed countless mortgage assignments as either a notary public or “vice president” of various … Read more

Onanism: Robosigners Satisfying Themselves. Hello? Yooo Hooo! It’s ALSO the Satisfactions of Mortgage!

Brian Bly, Robosigner featured in the news here and here, executes satisfactions of mortgage (along with assignments of mortgage, affidavits, & more) for many national banks and servicers in many states. Strangely, all of these documents are notarized in Florida, where his true employer Nationwide Title Clearing is located.

Hell, if you even check out my posts on President Obama’s satisfactions of mortgage forgeries, Nationwide was involved in that as well…

4closureFraud Exclusive – President Obama Falls Victim to Chase Robo-Signer

Well well well… Lookie what we have here folks… Is this why they tried to sneak through H.R. 3808? (just kidding) Just like we have been saying all along, this is so much bigger than  “affidavits.” Here is another piece of the puzzle, without bringing up the REMIC issues… Now that YOU are affected personally … Read more

At least now I understand what the heck they (Nationwide) were freaking out about while…
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On QE & Supply-A Dated Perspective

Courtesy of Bruce Krasting

In December of 1974 I was kid on an FX desk for a Swiss Bank in NYC. History gave me a lucky break. The dollar was in the crapper at the time. Too much debt and no plan to deal with it was the problem then. To stabilize the dollar and shore up a weak international balance sheet president Ford announced that Treasury would auction off gold. Because Switzerland was a big player in the gold biz my bank was involved. I ended up having a role in the process. Along the way I made some observations that have stuck with me. I look at QE and what lies before us and wonder if history might repeat itself.

Back in 74 the gold price plunged on the news. The dollar finally found some demand. Equity markets rejoiced.  I attended meeting at Treasury on the gold sales. I got to meet some real players. The initial assumption was that the gold price was in for a long-term plunge. There simply was not enough buyers for the AU that was coming up for sale.


We could not have been more wrong. The first auction was over subscribed. Each following auction was for larger amounts and saw bigger demand. This continued for a few years until the next bombshell came. In 1978 the IMF announced that it too would sell gold. (The US told the IMF to do this).

From 1975 to 1980 the US Treasury and the IMF sold a combined 42 million ounces (1300 tonnes). What did the price of gold do while all that selling was going on?

The price of gold went up nearly every week for five years. The more the US sold the more the market demanded.

The numbers back then look silly by today’s standard. The whole 42mm oz were sold for a measly $25b. But numbers were different back then. For example, the Dow closed 1974 at 580. Today it is 20X’s higher. I would use the same multiplier to value the scale of those long ago gold sales. The current value in gold terms is still only $60b. But the comparison to the size of GDP and money supply makes its impact closer to $500b. Therefore it isn’t so different in size than Mr. Bernanke’s…
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Betting On An Infinite Bernanke Put? Not So Fast, Says Fed Governor Kevin Warsh

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Last week’s Op-Ed du semaine was Ben Bernanke’s WaPo glowing endorsement of the Fed market put, whose sole purpose was to remind stocks, which ended up drooping on the day QE2 was announced, that Bernanke will stop at nothing to achieve his now primary goal (as loosely interpreted under the Fed’s broad, and unsupervisable, mandate) – surging stock prices. This week, however, may likely belong to Fed Board Governor, and former member of the President’s working group on capital markets, Kevin Warsh. In an Op-ed just released in the WSJ, Warsh, whose series of accomplishments include being the youngest ever appointee to the Fed BOD at 35, and being married to Jane Lauder of Estee Lauder fame, writes “Lower risk-free rates and higher equity prices—if sustained—could strengthen household and business balance sheets, and raise confidence in the strength of the economy. But if the recent weakness in the dollar, run-up in commodity prices, and other forward-looking indicators are sustained and passed along into final prices, the Fed’s price stability objective might no longer be a compelling policy rationale. In such a case—even with the unemployment rate still high—we would have cause to consider the path of policy. This is truer still if inflation expectations increase materially.Translation: if gold continues to exhibit a beta > 1 w/r/t ES, then we are screwed, and all Fed policies will have failed. Elsewhere, look for most commodities to open limit up again tomorrow for the nth day in a row as inflation expectations continue to “increase materially” and more and more Fed members understand just what Warsh is saying.

Much more in this surprisingly austere statement by one of the fresher voices at the Fed:

On focusing on the “seller” in the critical economic equation which the Fed now believes is only defined by end consumer demand, a premise that was thoroughly destroyed earlier by Sean Corrigan:

Policy makers should take notice of the critical importance of the supply side of the economy. The supply side establishes the economy’s productive capacity. Recovery after a recession demands that capital and labor be reallocated. But the reallocation of these resources to new sectors and companies has been painfully slow and unnecessarily interrupted. We are feeling the ill effects.

On austerity: look for Krugman and fluffer DeLong to go…
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Riding Bernanke’s Bull

Check out John’s new book and get a free trial to Wall Street Sector Selector

Riding Bernanke’s Bull

Courtesy of John Nyaradi at Wall St. Sector Selector  

 We made it really obvious…
how can you NOT tell what this guy is up to?
 

As expected, last week was momentous in many ways, with the control of the House of Representatives returning to the Republican Party and the announcement of “QE2” by the Federal Reserve. 

Both were almost foregone conclusions but both will have important ramifications in the weeks and months going forward.
 
Markets reacted strongly to the news and we’ll take a look at what it all means and where we might be going from here.
 
The whole situation reminds me of the old movie, “Urban Cowboy,” staring John Travolta, where he hung out in a bar in Houston and put quarters in a mechanical bull and rode the bucking beast until he was thrown off or the ride came to an end.
 
In our economic version today, we have the bull market and Chairman Bernanke with a bag full of quarters, feeding the bull with easy money. We’re all along for the ride and some will get thrown off, some will survive or the bull itself might simply burn out or break at the end.
 
Looking At My Screens
 
As discussed last week, major indexes remain overstretched and overbought and bullish sentiment remains at extreme levels. However, this week’s market action took out serious resistance levels and returned the major indexes to yearly highs. Also we’re entering the seasonal “best six months of the year” when stock prices tend to generate the best returns.
 
The View From 35,000 Feet
 
The big news of the week, of course, was the Federal Reserve’s launch of “QE2” and the reactions to that, both in the markets and around the world. Equity and commodity markets jumped sharply as the prospect of $600 Billion in


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World Bank President Robert Zoellick Calls For Return To “Old Money” Gold Standard

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

One of the most serious condemnations of the race to the currency bottom to date comes not come from some peripheral media, but from the head of the World Bank itself, who in a just released Op-Ed in the Financial Times says that since the system of floating currencies established by the 1971 Bretton Woods II system, has broken down, it is time to look to a new international system of commerce, one which “should also consider employing gold as an international reference point of market expectations about inflation, deflation and future currency values.” In other words, welcome back gold standard 2. Of course, this proposal will never attain more than a casual academic reference, as even a partial gold standard will immediately establish a lower bound on how much any given monetary authority can debase its (and, by retaliation, others’) currencies. What, however, if very curious, is why this proposal is being floated precisely 3 short days after the Fed has launched its most ambitious attempt to reflate global asset prices and devalue fiat paper. And as is well-known, the IMF has also been quietly proposing a return to an ven more powerful version of the SDR…. Just what will take for the scales to tip, and for the dollar to remain a reserve currency just in retrospect.

From the FT:

Writing in the Financial Times, Robert Zoellick, the bank’s president since 2007, says a successor is needed to what he calls the “Bretton Woods II” system of floating currencies that has held since the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate regime broke down in 1971.

Mr Zoellick, a former US Treasury official, calls for a system that “is likely to need to involve the dollar, the euro, the yen, the pound and a renminbi that moves towards internationalisation and then an open capital account”. He adds: “The system should also consider employing gold as an international reference point of market expectations about inflation, deflation and future currency values.”

His views reflect disquiet with the international system, where persistent Chinese intervention to hold down the renminbi is blamed by the US and others for contributing to global current account imbalances and creating capital markets distortions.

Of course, with a market primed to discount every inflationary possibility, it would not be surprising to see precious…
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A Look At Global Economic Events In The Upcoming Week

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Week in Review

After much anticipation of last week’s events, the Fed, the global macro data, and the US voting public delivered a set of results that were broadly market friendly. The Fed embarked on a second round of quantitative easing that, in terms of size, speed and conditionality, is about in line with our expectations. The Republicans seized the House and eroded the Democratic hold on the Senate a bit, also as expected. The US and global industrial data showed some pockets of unexpected strength and GLI momentum has now turned decidedly positive. The week ended with stronger-than-expected payrolls, especially taking into account upward revisions to August and September. Though the household survey had a weaker tone – the unemployment rate held constant only because labor force participation dropped – on balance the labor market data were quite encouraging.

In G10 FX, NZD and AUD were the best performers against USD, as better-than-expected labor market data in New Zealand and a surprise hike by the RBA gave both currencies an extra lift, above and beyond that from QE2. EUR/$ ended the week only slightly higher, as the cross gave back almost all its QE2 gains on Friday as sovereign fears on the periphery once again became a focus point. Equities unambiguously embraced QE2, with the SPX ending the week 3.6% higher. The VIX ended the week down three points at 18.3.

Week Ahead

China data

This week brings the China trade balance for October, where a widening in the trade surplus is expected. Given the G-20 summit this week and the discussion over indicative target ranges for current account surplus countries, this number will be widely watched. We also get the usual activity and inflation indicators. We expect IP growth to pick up against a year ago, at a slightly stronger pace than consensus, and are looking for inflation to rise also above consensus. Overall, we are looking for confirmation that activity remains strong, while inflation continues to push upward. With inflation dynamics a reason for the recent rate hike, there will be particular focus on this point.

G-20 Summit

Following the G-20 ministerial meeting, which started a discussion over indicative targets for current account surplus and deficit countries, the key thing to look for is whether the G-20 summit further formalizes this discussion, by setting actual ranges for current account positions and…
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Private payrolls beat, reflation trade back on, EONIA back below 50bps

Courtesy of naufalsanaullah

Original piece here.

20101105





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Courtesy of naufalsanaullah

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Stock World Weekly

The latest Stock World Weekly Newsletter summarizing the events of last week and discussing next week is now available on the Weekly Newsletter page, here. As always, we love feedback. – Ilene 

crazy benny bernanke

Pic credit: William Banzai7


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Zero Hedge

Auto Shares Surge As Fiat, Renault Confirm Merger Talks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With President Trump in Japan for a state visit and most of Europe headed to the polls to vote in the quinquennial EU Parliamentary elections, there was enough news to keep market watchers occupied during what was supposed to be a quiet holiday weekend in the US. 

But on top of these political headlines, on Saturday afternoon, the news broke that Italian-American carmaker Fiat Chrysler had approached France's Renault with a merger proposal that would leave the shareholders of each carmaker with half of the combined company, in a tie-up that would create the world's third-largest au...



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Phil's Favorites

Trump and the problem with pardons

 

Trump and the problem with pardons

Courtesy of Andrew Bell, Indiana University

As a veteran, I was astonished by the recent news that President Trump may be considering pardons for U.S. military members accused or convicted of war crimes. But as a scholar who studies the U.S. military and combat ethics, I understand even more clearly the harmful long-term impact such pardons can have on the military.

My researc...



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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...



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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!


Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!







Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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