Archive for 2010

The Long View of the US Economy

Courtesy of madhedgefundtrader

The retirement of the baby boomers, and the reduced numbers and frugal spending patterns of Generation X, are not only bad news for the real estate market for the next 20 years, they are going to be a huge drag on the economy as a whole.

The distinguished economist, Robert J. Gordon, of Northwestern University in Chicago, argues that we are entering the slowest growth period in US history. Per capita GDP grew at a healthy 2.44% annual rate during 1928-1972, then downshifted to 1.93% from 1972 to 2007.  He expects it to fall further to 1.5% during the next two decades. By 2027, US GDP will be only 35% higher than it is today. They must be laughing in Beijing.

Past generational slowdowns like this were offset by the huge productivity increases delivered by rising education levels. That won’t bail us out this time. Distressed state and local finances are pushing the public sector into 20 years of cost cutting that is sending education spending plummeting, leading to the great “dumbing down” of America. No productivity gains here. There isn’t enough new technology being invented to take up the slack.

This is why I have been urging traders and investors to get their money the hell out of the US since the inception of this letter. Get it into emerging markets, emerging market debt, foreign currencies like the Australian and Canadian dollars, commodities, precious metals, and food. Rallies in US markets should be viewed only as trading ones which are to be sold into. Only invest here when you are compensated for the higher risk you are taking, such as in technology, energy, commodities, and solar companies, along with junk bonds. Keep your passport up to date, and better start taking those night classes in Portuguese, Russian, Hindi, and Mandarin.

To see the data, charts, and graphs that support this research piece, as well as more iconoclastic and out-of-consensus analysis, please visit me at www.madhedgefundtrader.com . There, you will find the conventional wisdom mercilessly flailed and tortured daily, and my last two years of research reports available for free. You can also listen to me on Hedge Fund Radio by clicking on “This Week on Hedge Fund Radio” in the upper right corner of my home page.





4closureFraud – Full Video Deposition of Crystal Moore of Nationwide Title Clearing

Courtesy of 4closureFraud

This deposition was taken on November 4, 2010 in Pinellas County, Florida, by attorney Christopher Forrest of The Forrest Law Firm and has to be one of the most damning yet.

The reason I say “yet” is because Bryan Bly’s video deposition is coming up next…

Below is the the video Deposition of Crystal Moore with some background info…

It is going to be a hell of a week!

~

Crystal Moore Deposition Part 1

 

Crystal Moore Deposition Part 2

 

Crystal Moore Deposition Part 3

 

Crystal Moore Deposition Part 4

 

~

Outrageous?

Some background…

Bryan Bly, is it a LIE? Robo-Signer for Nationwide Title

Posted by Foreclosure Fraud on June 20, 2010 ·

By Susan Taylor Martin, Times Senior Correspondent In Print: Sunday, June 20, 2010 To thousands of homeowners whose loans have been shuttled from one company to another, the name “Bryan Bly” is very familiar. Over the past few years, Bly has signed countless mortgage assignments as either a notary public or “vice president” of various … Read more

Onanism: Robosigners Satisfying Themselves. Hello? Yooo Hooo! It’s ALSO the Satisfactions of Mortgage!

Brian Bly, Robosigner featured in the news here and here, executes satisfactions of mortgage (along with assignments of mortgage, affidavits, & more) for many national banks and servicers in many states. Strangely, all of these documents are notarized in Florida, where his true employer Nationwide Title Clearing is located.

Hell, if you even check out my posts on President Obama’s satisfactions of mortgage forgeries, Nationwide was involved in that as well…

4closureFraud Exclusive – President Obama Falls Victim to Chase Robo-Signer

Well well well… Lookie what we have here folks… Is this why they tried to sneak through H.R. 3808? (just kidding) Just like we have been saying all along, this is so much bigger than  “affidavits.” Here is another piece of the puzzle, without bringing up the REMIC issues… Now that YOU are affected personally … Read more

At least now I understand what the heck they (Nationwide) were freaking out about while…
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On QE & Supply-A Dated Perspective

Courtesy of Bruce Krasting

In December of 1974 I was kid on an FX desk for a Swiss Bank in NYC. History gave me a lucky break. The dollar was in the crapper at the time. Too much debt and no plan to deal with it was the problem then. To stabilize the dollar and shore up a weak international balance sheet president Ford announced that Treasury would auction off gold. Because Switzerland was a big player in the gold biz my bank was involved. I ended up having a role in the process. Along the way I made some observations that have stuck with me. I look at QE and what lies before us and wonder if history might repeat itself.

Back in 74 the gold price plunged on the news. The dollar finally found some demand. Equity markets rejoiced.  I attended meeting at Treasury on the gold sales. I got to meet some real players. The initial assumption was that the gold price was in for a long-term plunge. There simply was not enough buyers for the AU that was coming up for sale.


We could not have been more wrong. The first auction was over subscribed. Each following auction was for larger amounts and saw bigger demand. This continued for a few years until the next bombshell came. In 1978 the IMF announced that it too would sell gold. (The US told the IMF to do this).

From 1975 to 1980 the US Treasury and the IMF sold a combined 42 million ounces (1300 tonnes). What did the price of gold do while all that selling was going on?

The price of gold went up nearly every week for five years. The more the US sold the more the market demanded.

The numbers back then look silly by today’s standard. The whole 42mm oz were sold for a measly $25b. But numbers were different back then. For example, the Dow closed 1974 at 580. Today it is 20X’s higher. I would use the same multiplier to value the scale of those long ago gold sales. The current value in gold terms is still only $60b. But the comparison to the size of GDP and money supply makes its impact closer to $500b. Therefore it isn’t so different in size than Mr. Bernanke’s…
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Betting On An Infinite Bernanke Put? Not So Fast, Says Fed Governor Kevin Warsh

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Last week’s Op-Ed du semaine was Ben Bernanke’s WaPo glowing endorsement of the Fed market put, whose sole purpose was to remind stocks, which ended up drooping on the day QE2 was announced, that Bernanke will stop at nothing to achieve his now primary goal (as loosely interpreted under the Fed’s broad, and unsupervisable, mandate) – surging stock prices. This week, however, may likely belong to Fed Board Governor, and former member of the President’s working group on capital markets, Kevin Warsh. In an Op-ed just released in the WSJ, Warsh, whose series of accomplishments include being the youngest ever appointee to the Fed BOD at 35, and being married to Jane Lauder of Estee Lauder fame, writes “Lower risk-free rates and higher equity prices—if sustained—could strengthen household and business balance sheets, and raise confidence in the strength of the economy. But if the recent weakness in the dollar, run-up in commodity prices, and other forward-looking indicators are sustained and passed along into final prices, the Fed’s price stability objective might no longer be a compelling policy rationale. In such a case—even with the unemployment rate still high—we would have cause to consider the path of policy. This is truer still if inflation expectations increase materially.Translation: if gold continues to exhibit a beta > 1 w/r/t ES, then we are screwed, and all Fed policies will have failed. Elsewhere, look for most commodities to open limit up again tomorrow for the nth day in a row as inflation expectations continue to “increase materially” and more and more Fed members understand just what Warsh is saying.

Much more in this surprisingly austere statement by one of the fresher voices at the Fed:

On focusing on the “seller” in the critical economic equation which the Fed now believes is only defined by end consumer demand, a premise that was thoroughly destroyed earlier by Sean Corrigan:

Policy makers should take notice of the critical importance of the supply side of the economy. The supply side establishes the economy’s productive capacity. Recovery after a recession demands that capital and labor be reallocated. But the reallocation of these resources to new sectors and companies has been painfully slow and unnecessarily interrupted. We are feeling the ill effects.

On austerity: look for Krugman and fluffer DeLong to go…
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Riding Bernanke’s Bull

Check out John’s new book and get a free trial to Wall Street Sector Selector

Riding Bernanke’s Bull

Courtesy of John Nyaradi at Wall St. Sector Selector  

 We made it really obvious…
how can you NOT tell what this guy is up to?
 

As expected, last week was momentous in many ways, with the control of the House of Representatives returning to the Republican Party and the announcement of “QE2” by the Federal Reserve. 

Both were almost foregone conclusions but both will have important ramifications in the weeks and months going forward.
 
Markets reacted strongly to the news and we’ll take a look at what it all means and where we might be going from here.
 
The whole situation reminds me of the old movie, “Urban Cowboy,” staring John Travolta, where he hung out in a bar in Houston and put quarters in a mechanical bull and rode the bucking beast until he was thrown off or the ride came to an end.
 
In our economic version today, we have the bull market and Chairman Bernanke with a bag full of quarters, feeding the bull with easy money. We’re all along for the ride and some will get thrown off, some will survive or the bull itself might simply burn out or break at the end.
 
Looking At My Screens
 
As discussed last week, major indexes remain overstretched and overbought and bullish sentiment remains at extreme levels. However, this week’s market action took out serious resistance levels and returned the major indexes to yearly highs. Also we’re entering the seasonal “best six months of the year” when stock prices tend to generate the best returns.
 
The View From 35,000 Feet
 
The big news of the week, of course, was the Federal Reserve’s launch of “QE2” and the reactions to that, both in the markets and around the world. Equity and commodity markets jumped sharply as the prospect of $600 Billion in


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World Bank President Robert Zoellick Calls For Return To “Old Money” Gold Standard

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

One of the most serious condemnations of the race to the currency bottom to date comes not come from some peripheral media, but from the head of the World Bank itself, who in a just released Op-Ed in the Financial Times says that since the system of floating currencies established by the 1971 Bretton Woods II system, has broken down, it is time to look to a new international system of commerce, one which “should also consider employing gold as an international reference point of market expectations about inflation, deflation and future currency values.” In other words, welcome back gold standard 2. Of course, this proposal will never attain more than a casual academic reference, as even a partial gold standard will immediately establish a lower bound on how much any given monetary authority can debase its (and, by retaliation, others’) currencies. What, however, if very curious, is why this proposal is being floated precisely 3 short days after the Fed has launched its most ambitious attempt to reflate global asset prices and devalue fiat paper. And as is well-known, the IMF has also been quietly proposing a return to an ven more powerful version of the SDR…. Just what will take for the scales to tip, and for the dollar to remain a reserve currency just in retrospect.

From the FT:

Writing in the Financial Times, Robert Zoellick, the bank’s president since 2007, says a successor is needed to what he calls the “Bretton Woods II” system of floating currencies that has held since the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate regime broke down in 1971.

Mr Zoellick, a former US Treasury official, calls for a system that “is likely to need to involve the dollar, the euro, the yen, the pound and a renminbi that moves towards internationalisation and then an open capital account”. He adds: “The system should also consider employing gold as an international reference point of market expectations about inflation, deflation and future currency values.”

His views reflect disquiet with the international system, where persistent Chinese intervention to hold down the renminbi is blamed by the US and others for contributing to global current account imbalances and creating capital markets distortions.

Of course, with a market primed to discount every inflationary possibility, it would not be surprising to see precious…
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A Look At Global Economic Events In The Upcoming Week

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Week in Review

After much anticipation of last week’s events, the Fed, the global macro data, and the US voting public delivered a set of results that were broadly market friendly. The Fed embarked on a second round of quantitative easing that, in terms of size, speed and conditionality, is about in line with our expectations. The Republicans seized the House and eroded the Democratic hold on the Senate a bit, also as expected. The US and global industrial data showed some pockets of unexpected strength and GLI momentum has now turned decidedly positive. The week ended with stronger-than-expected payrolls, especially taking into account upward revisions to August and September. Though the household survey had a weaker tone – the unemployment rate held constant only because labor force participation dropped – on balance the labor market data were quite encouraging.

In G10 FX, NZD and AUD were the best performers against USD, as better-than-expected labor market data in New Zealand and a surprise hike by the RBA gave both currencies an extra lift, above and beyond that from QE2. EUR/$ ended the week only slightly higher, as the cross gave back almost all its QE2 gains on Friday as sovereign fears on the periphery once again became a focus point. Equities unambiguously embraced QE2, with the SPX ending the week 3.6% higher. The VIX ended the week down three points at 18.3.

Week Ahead

China data

This week brings the China trade balance for October, where a widening in the trade surplus is expected. Given the G-20 summit this week and the discussion over indicative target ranges for current account surplus countries, this number will be widely watched. We also get the usual activity and inflation indicators. We expect IP growth to pick up against a year ago, at a slightly stronger pace than consensus, and are looking for inflation to rise also above consensus. Overall, we are looking for confirmation that activity remains strong, while inflation continues to push upward. With inflation dynamics a reason for the recent rate hike, there will be particular focus on this point.

G-20 Summit

Following the G-20 ministerial meeting, which started a discussion over indicative targets for current account surplus and deficit countries, the key thing to look for is whether the G-20 summit further formalizes this discussion, by setting actual ranges for current account positions and…
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Private payrolls beat, reflation trade back on, EONIA back below 50bps

Courtesy of naufalsanaullah

Original piece here.

20101105





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Courtesy of naufalsanaullah

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Stock World Weekly

The latest Stock World Weekly Newsletter summarizing the events of last week and discussing next week is now available on the Weekly Newsletter page, here. As always, we love feedback. – Ilene 

crazy benny bernanke

Pic credit: William Banzai7


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ValueWalk

#1 Performing Global Macro Hedge Fund Sees More Shorts Opportunities Ahead As China Bursts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Crescat Global Macro Fund update to investors on 1/19/2019

Crescat Global Macro Fund and Crescat Long/Short fund delivered strong returns for both December and full year 2018 in a difficult market. Based on ...



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Zero Hedge

Johns Hopkins, Bristol-Myers Face $1 Billion Suit For Infecting Guatemalan Hookers With Syphilis 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A federal judge in Maryland said Johns Hopkins University, pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb and the Rockefeller Foundation must face a $1 billion lawsuit over their roles in a top-secret program in the 1940s ran by the US government that injected hundreds of Guatemalans with syphilis, reported Reuters.

Several doctors from Hopkins an...



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Phil's Favorites

Divisive economics

 

Guest author David Brin — scientist, technology consultant, best-selling author and futurist — explores the records of Democrats and Republicans on the US economy in the following post. For David's latest posts, visit the CONTRARY BRIN blog. For his books and short stories, visit his web...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock declines did not break 9-year support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We often hear “Stocks take an escalator up and an elevator down!” No doubt stocks did experience a swift decline from the September highs to the Christmas eve lows. Looks like the “elevator” part of the phrase came true as 2018 was coming to an end.

The first part of the “stocks take an escalator up” seems to still be in play as well despite the swift decline of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- All of these indices hit long-term rising support on Christmas Eve at each (1), where support held and rallies have followed.

If you find long-term perspectives helpf...



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Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



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Insider Scoop

Cars.com Explores Strategic Alternatives, Analyst Sees Possible Sale Price Around $30 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 44 Biggest Movers From Yesterday 38 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Mid-Day Session ...

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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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