Mid-Day Update

March 31, 2011

61

Housekeeping Note: This morning we did a few position changes.

On the short side: We sold short 125 shares of CLF at 98.16 and we also bought one April 110 put to open at 12.25.

On the long side: We locked down our one in the hand is worth two in the bush position on BSFT at 46.36 and netted about 6% or about $677. Make sure you read the notes in the trade trigger alert because they deal with what to do should one want to continue to hang on to it.

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Here are your "Into The End Of The Quarter" Trend Channel charts.

Let’s move on to the 60 minute charts.

What we said yesterday still stands today:

"These levels very dangerous to be chasing stocks on the long side with regards to putting new money to work."

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Interesting chart of the day

Quick question for you all. What’s the overall trend on this stock. Up or down.

Quick answer — Down, as in it’s in a big red downtrending channel with PINK LINE POL’s (Pullbacks Off Lows). POL’s are the flip side to POH’s and are used for stocks that are in clearly defined down trends.

All of this makes us wonder if we should stalk this one too by putting it in the short sell watch list in the event it breaks the POL to the downside.

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Notes to keep us focused upon the game plan for the week

On 3-30 we said:

"We have technical indicators such as the RSI and Full stoh’s BOTH in overbought territory in the 60 min. time frequency and now the daily time frequency charts.

We have off the March lows we have 5 waves up showing in the nano charts and the 60 min. charts

We have the S&P 500 tagging a resistance level and at trend channel resistance

We have the OTC with a little work to do yet to the upside to match the SPX, don’t worry a gap up in AAPL would do it.

And ohhhh lets not forget we’ve got the "In The Face Of Fear "Showing for those who are looking at the short side here. Which is just the opposite of the face of fear on the longside.

Be on your toes here, this is also about the time traditional Wall St. upgrades something that makes up a big weighting in one of the indexes (Who’s it gonna be this time? The financial sector? AAPL? MSFT? INTC? CAT? CVX?). Remember those guys? Remember how they have a habit of downgrading stocks at the lows AFTER they already fell and of course upgrading AFTER they already took off? What a joke, But WE’RE all smarter now right?

In addition to that if you happen to spot some bald guy screaming you gotta get on board or take note. At that moment in time you MAY want to change the station to the discovery channel, come to think of it isnt shark week on the discovery channel starting soon?

All of which makes these levels very dangerous to be chasing stocks on the long side with regards to putting new money to work.

Start to brush up on your "Change In Trend" patterns here folks, as in topping patterns like double tops for one. Here’s an example of what we want to be on the lookout for over the next few weeks."

Over the weekend we said:

"It’s the end of the quarter next week if it wasn’t the end of the quarter we’d be very bearish and actually we are overall. BUT given we are as close to a retest of the highs as we are all into the famous Quarter End where magical things can happen? Don’t be surprised to see a retest of the highs on all the indexes. Would it surprise you? Not us."

Keep in mind we are not saying it is going there as we don’t know nor does anyone else for that matter, all we are saying is that it wouldn’t surprise us.

So here is the game plan.

Over the weekend we said:

"We sweat with our fledgling short positions and let them cycle back around with most likely that occuring after the quarter end. Same goes for those of you who have short exposure via inverse index ETF’s. A retest of the highs from here into quarter end means you’ll feel some pain with them temporarily but not really a big deal if you’ve employed proper trade size risk management. Consider it a part of that thrilling roller coaster ride that you feel in your stomach, it’s only temporary."

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SHORT SELL WATCH LIST

For weeks we’ve been highlighting numerous times the First Thrust Down pattern. Below are a few examples.

SHORT SELL WATCH LIST

3-31 Keep in mind we are in the "Into The End Of The Quarter" phase of the market right here, don’t expect any real downside action till after the quarter ends.

Consider this section of the newsletter the "Get The Gun Loaded" and be prepared area for you forward thinkers.

KLAC
NEW NAME

Still locked in that bear channel, talk to us at the end of the quarter at least.

ARMH
NEW NAME

Currently pulling back off the lows (POL) up to the 50 day. It’s all about a downside break of the pink line. Talk to us after the end of the quarter.

GEOI

Well here is that retest of the highs folks.

BRY

Starting to look more like a rising bearish wedge.

XLE

We’ll find out soon enough if this ends up being a shake out high, stay tuned.

3-31 With all names on the short side watch list odds favor not seeing any action there till at least after the quarter ends.

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LONG SIDE WATCH LIST

If I were to put money to work here. Where do I put it?

SDS
BACK ON LIST

3-31 Our notes from 3-27 pretty much sum it up. Anyone who bought it a few weeks ago getting scared here? If so? Good. Why? Its always darkest just before the dawn. Say if its always darkest just before the dawn on the short side whats that say about the longside? Hmmmm isnt the Sun is always brightest at its peak right?

3-29 Here too don’t expect any real action till this quarter ends.

3-21 So if you buy right here what is your risk? The blue support line thats what. Which is basically a little over a 1 point pop from here. Keep in mind in order for this to break support the SPX has to break into a new high. But even if the SPX were to break into a new high it doesnt mean its going to stick. See all the gaps up the SPX is creating off the recent lows? Odds favor they get filled. This one is high on our list.

3-27 Keep in mind IF IF IF the market does the "In To Quarter End" Pump which is more strength early next week then this issue is going lower and near major support. USE THE US DOLLAR chart’s double bottom with a shake out low example as a guide for what COULD (doesnt mean it will but could) occur with it over the next week. If you own it and we get a shake out low in it don’t get scared.

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Featured But Not Trade Triggered By Us

This is where names that we have on our watch list that have triggered but for whatever reason we did not take them (can’t do them all) in our trade trigger alerts. This section is because a lot of our subscribers opt to use our information as they see fit from a do-it-yourselfer standpoint.

For those who are more apt to be investors and decided to hang on to BSFT per the raising of stop loss levels mentioned we’ll put it in the featured list for your viewing pleasure.

ALTR

3-30 Say didn’t we mention something about being on the lookout for double tops? And that is what we are on the lookout for.

SLV

3-30 New highs, and a new short term support level to watch and that is now the 33 level from a few days ago. Here is some food for thought, keep in mind this issue could ultimately end up going range bound in here the next few weeks, that said? The range would be these highs and the blue support lows. NOT saying its going to just saying something to consider and be aware of, notice we didnt say beware but be aware. Big difference.

And by popular demand below is GLD

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All About Options In The World According To All About Trends

NOTE: The exchanges recently started WEEKLY EXPIRATIONS of options. Going forward, make sure that you check to see which ones you are buying. Let’s stay with traditional options expirations which are the ones that expire the 3rd Saturday of every month.

Options Watch List

ALL PUT OPTIONS All APRIL expiration

BRY

The ones to watch are the APRIL 55 puts. with the stock at 50.16 these are priced at 5.00 which means you are paying 70 cents for time.

XLE

The ones we want to look at are the APRIL 84 puts. With the stock at 80.22 these are priced at 5.30 which means you are paying 50 cents for time.

Current Holdings

CLF (We are now long 1 APRIL 110 Put Option at 12.25)

Recently we’ve been talking about the April 100 puts but they had 2 points of time in them, thats why we opted for the 110 puts – they had 25 cents of time in them. Nothing worse than being in an option position and the stock moves if your favor but the options just get the time sucked out of them.

As we post they are priced at 12.60

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CURRENT POSITIONS

"Let Your Stocks Tell You What To Do By The Action They Exhibit"

LONG SIDE POSITIONS

APKT (We are LONG 150 shares at 70.67 as of 3-28-11)

Not really setting the world on fire in here is it. We’ll probably want to keep a short leash on it in here just to be on the safe side. This isn’t Nov. 2010 anymore you know.

BSFT (We WERE LONG 250 shares at 43.65 as of 3-28-11)

This morning per a trade trigger alert we are now out of this position. 3 days almost 700.00 worth of gains, heck we’ll take it.

VXX (We are now LONG 300 shares at 32.58 as of 3-23-11)

SHORT SIDE POSITIONS

3-29 As mentioned in a few other areas in this update, don’t expect any real downside action till we get thru the end of the quarter, this goes for VXX too.

CLF (We are now SHORT 125 shares at 98.16 as of 3-31-11)

NFLX (We are now SHORT 75 shares at 220.19 as of 3-22-11)

3-30 Need you ask why it’s stalling here? Because it’s resistance and MAY be forming a double top.

BIDU (We are now SHORT 100 shares at 127.81 as of 3-23-11)

3-24 As far as NFLX and BIDU go as you can see, its like we said- Not for the faint at heart. For us its not a big deal right here. Why? Trade size position risk management.

3-25 So here we are with a few fledgling positions on the short side. The total value of our model virtual portfolio is 169,000. The amount invested via short side exposure is 23% The amount of Cash is 77% For us all thanks to trade size position risk management it allows us to be able to have issues give us a little guff without it ever getting us into any real deep trouble (make note of that folks) . Given how close the indexes (SPX) are to a full blown retest of the recent highs of 1340 which as we post is a whopping 22 points away. So at this point instead of REACTING cause we have a few issues of ours causing a stir we’ll sit tight with then and allow ourselves to feel the fear without allowing it to emotionally get us into a tizzy. Nothing that we all havent been thru before mind you and nothing that we all wont go thru again over the span of our investing careers.

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To our NEW SUBSCRIBERS

What we’ve tried to do is break our watch list down into chart pattern recognition structure from a visual standpoint. Learn the patterns and the components of patterns and you’ll blow those Wall Street MBAs away. You don’t need a $3,000 software program either. All you need is a BURNING DESIRE to be the best that you can be and we’re here to help.

We have a lot of new folks here and we thank you! We want you to take it easy, get to know how the routine works around here for awhile and to feel comfortable.

We hope you all aren’t here because you are chasing performance. For us it’s more about educating and making you the best you that you can be first (that’s what we focus upon!). Like many of our long time subscribers they have all found out that they have no use for traditional Wall Street (and we don’t blame them) and it’s our hope that over time you’ll have acquired enough knowledge from us to say the same with conviction.

One of the most important things we want to stress is that of RISK MANAGEMENT via POSITION SIZING. You don’t need to stack your account with just a few big positions as we’ve seen it time and time again that those who get into trouble are the ones who take large positions and do not employ any risk management system IE shoot for the fences. Those are the people who live on the fringes of extremes and yes ultimately get burned.

As a guideline a good initial system is that of the following example.

Let’s say you have a $100,000 virtual portfolio and let’s say that as a guide you never place more than 10% ($10,000) into any one position. Now let’s say that one day a news driven event hits (over which you have no control over anyway) and one of the positions tanks 20%. On its own that position is sporting a $2,000 loss, while that may seem devastating on its own its really no big deal overall.

Why? Simple its all about risk management being properly employed. What is the impact of a $2,000 loss to the TOTAL VALUE of the virtual portfolio in this example.

Answer: A whopping 2% LOSS. Now you know why we say no big deal.

We can also tell you new people here that you will get stopped out of names and you will take hits. There is nobody on the planet living that has ever hit 18 holes in one and there never will be. We’d rather get you grounded in reality right away vs talking about pie in the sky all the time like a lot of other sites. In so doing your head is screwed on straight from the start and when those days happen (and they will) mentally it won’t mean a thing to you. To us that’s what’s most important is YOUR state of mind as it’s your most important asset. We hope you appreciate our honesty.

We have a very good retention rate here at All About Trends and a lot of great outstanding people here. We like to think that a part of that is being upfront about what can happen (in both directions). Verses those up 500%, I turned $50,000 into $3 million or some other absurd number to get you to bite. That’s not who we are.

WELCOME ABOARD!

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Lastly with regards to taking any trade:

Remember the moment you take a trade you are at the mercy of the market and have no control except when to sell. If you are not willing to take the risk and are not willing to pay that price do not take the trade. We are willing to take that risk knowing full well the end result could be a loss. That said make sure that virtual portfolio management trade size is used accordingly. With any position you may take make sure that should something go awry the amount of total impact to your account does not devastate your acct. Try to stick to a 5% position That’s the key to virtual portfolio management, not biting off more than you can chew.

Remember the mechanics of reality with regards to the stock market states a stock can only do one of three things: Up, Down, Nowhere. The moment you hit the enter button you are at the mercy of the market therefore the only control you have is when to sell/cover. You can’t manage your gains as you have none to manage initially. Knowing this in advance it allows you to stay in outcome, that being you will either:

1. Make a gain
2. Wash
3. Get stopped out at a loss

Remember the market IS the boss. IT is going to do what IT wants to do.

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