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Sunday, February 1, 2026

Philly Fed Negative Too: Told ‘Ya

Courtesy of Karl Denninger of The Market Ticker

"Here it comes" once again…

Responses to the Business Outlook Survey suggest that regional manufacturing activity weakened in June. The survey’s indicators for activity and new orders turned negative this month, while indicators for shipments and employment fell but remained slightly positive. Indicators for prices show a continuing trend of moderating price pressures. The broadest indicator of future activity fell sharply in June, recording its lowest reading in 31 months.

Nearly back to 2008.  Uh, yeah.  Note that this is future activity expectations.

The current index is now at the point consistent with entry into recession.

There’s no joy in here; the table is just plain terrible:

I am particularly concerned by that six-month forward workweek expectation; that’s just plain bad and augers for outright contraction in purchasing power and the economy going right into the end of the year – right about when they’ll "officially recognize" that which has been obvious and baked in the cake since last August.

The idiocy of money-printing is coming home to roost and the evidence that those of us who called this a foolish enterprise were right is mounting by the day. 

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