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Which Way Wednesday – Waiting for the Fed

Greece is fixed – now what?  

Well, Greece isn't really fixed, of course, but look how fast it all turned out to be nothing and this morning hardly anyone is even mentioning it.  The crowds protested but this vote wasn't in their hands – it was in the hands of their corrupted officials and they voted 100% along party lines to keep Prime Minister Papandreou in power, which will now allow him to push through another $40Bn in budget cuts (14% of GDP or $2.25Tn if applied to the US budget – in a single year) that will pretty much turn the Government of Greece into nothing more than a debt collection service for Banksters – as they no longer have the money to provide any Government services to the people.  

Yes, it's a Republican wet dream and it will be a fun experiment to see if we can truly strip a government down to the singular function of taxing the citizens to give money to banks – consider it a practice run for their vision of the US as soon as they can get a couple of more seats in the Senate and Michelle Bachmann is President.  On the condition that the Greek Parliament agrees to sell their people down the river, the EU and the IMF agree to give them MORE MONEY.  Well, not GIVE them, of course, they will lend it to them at 5.2% – which is a very nice profit for the lenders and more money than a US 30-year mortgage (but Greece is only given 7.5 years to pay it all back – an impossible task with their debt to GDP ratio).  

This will plunge Greece another 25% of their GDP further into debt while the cuts in Government services are projected to lower their GDP by another 15% so we first add 25% to the 135% debt the already have, which is 160% and then we multiply that by the 15% that the GDP will drop and we get a debt to GDP ratio of 184% – isn't that special?  So about $600Bn in debt at 5.2% interest is $31.2Bn a year (10% of GDP) JUST IN INTEREST – that would be like the US carrying an annual $1.6Tn interest payment while cutting Government spending down to $1.6Tn – isn't this a fun game?!?

That's the "fix" that Greece can now look forward to.  Also conditioned in the loan is the forced sale of state assets.  This is the real coup-de-gras for the Capitalists as they turn a nation's assets into nothing more than items in a very exclusive yard sale that only the already-rich can participate in.  

Already, DT has picked off a 30% chunk of OTE, the state telecom company, which employs (employed) 30,000 people and Athens News Agency reports that tenders on a host of other state properties for full or partial sale — including the ports of Piraeus and Thessaloniki and Hellenic Postbank, one of the country's best-capitalised lenders — would be launched in coming months.  "Greece has to take new commitments. Greece has to enlarge the ambition of its privatisation programme," leading eurozone policy-maker, Luxembourg Prime Minister and master of evil, Jean-Claude Juncker said on Tuesday.  "Muhahaha!" 

Again, to put this into perspective, this would be like the US being forced to sell off the Post Office to DHL, our Ports to Dubai (we didn't like that last time, did we?), the Smithsonian could go to a private Japanese collector of Americana, etc.  Oh wait a minute, isn't privatizing our government services part of the Republican plank already?  Gosh, I get so confused between what bankrupt Nations that are hopelessly in debt are FORCED to do by their creditors as a last resort and what the American people are being asked to vote for voluntarily

Oh well, at least "fixing" Greece is good for our markets… What?  It's not?  No, our futures are, as we expected, not particularly thrilled because PIIGS was Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain so, even if Greece is out of the equation, we still have PIIS and that's not really better, is it?  We'll have to work a U or an A into that acronym soon because a Bloomberg National Poll finds that 44% of Americans are worse-off than they were two years ago with two thirds feeling this country is on the wrong track.  

Gas prices are higher, grocery prices are higher, transportation prices are higher,” says poll respondent Ronda Brockway, 54, an insurance company manager and political independent who lives in a suburb of Harrisburg, Pennsylvania (where the Mayor is PRAYING for a solution to the budget crisis). “The jobs situation nationwide is very poor.” 

The gloom covers the immediate future, with fewer than 1 in 10 people expecting unemployment to return to pre-recession levels within the next two years, and it extends to the next generation. More than half of respondents say their children are destined to have a lower standard of living than they do, upending a traditional touchstone of the American Dream.  “Unless you limit the actual money coming in to the government and give businesses a break, I don’t think you’re going to have a bounce-back in the economy,” says poll respondent Michael Jefferys, 37, a business analyst for a building supply manufacturer.  Yes because that's working so well for Greece, isn't it?  

$15Bn in POMO did wonders for the US Markets in the first two days of the week.  Already we're climbing back to our Must Hold lines on the Dow and the S&P while the -2.5% lines have been retaken on the Nasdaq, the NYSE and the Russell.  Wasn't that easy?  Keep in mind that our prediction was that "THEY" would attempt to run the indexes back to the +2.5% by June 30th – in order to dress those windows for the end of the Quarter.  We covered yesterday, in case the Greek thing fell apart but now it's up to Uncle Ben to give us the push we need to keep the ball rolling into Friday – ahead of the big end of quarter push next week.  

Bernanke will hold a press conference after the Fed meeting at 2:15 and the FOMC announcement is pushed up to 12:15 so they are looking to move the markets this afternoon.  If this doesn't work, perhaps the Fed can start doing what the BOJ does, which is jump in and start buying Topix ETFs anytime their markets drop more than 100 points in the morning session.   

BOJ Governor, Masaaki Shirakawa, warned on March 9th in a lecture in Germany that “there is an increasing possibility that Central Banks will no longer be seen as neutral institutions, partly due to their stronger intervention in resource and capital allocation at the micro level.”  Gee – ya think?  

FDX gave us a good report this morning, saying demand is up and costs are coming down, which earned them a spot on the front page of the on-line WSJ and should give the markets – or at least the Transports – a lift today.  PHG, on the other hand, who are the same size as FDX but deal with consumers, warned that weak demand in Western Europe will hurt results at its lighting and consumer lifestyle units. Margin pressures and higher marketing spending will result in Q2 EBITA for the lighting unit of $122M, down sharply from $277M in Q1.  Fortunately, Wall Street Journal readers are spared from that bad news on the front page but you can find the report buried in the bottom half of the Europe Section, where it rates a single line that says "Philips Warns on Profit."  Won't WSJ readers be surprised when PGH opens down 12% this morning?  

Just like parent company Fox News – the WSJ has become famous for reporting "all the news that fits" (in with the overall propaganda).  Something Jon Stewart noted over the weekend when he was a guest on Fox News Sunday:  

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart Mon – Thurs 11p / 10c
Fox News Channel – Fair & Balanced
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor & Satire Blog The Daily Show on Facebook

Well, our virtual portfolios are, at least, fair and balanced at the moment and we're strapped in for a wild ride today as we head into the last Fed meeting of the QE2 error (not a typo) with no additional meeting scheduled until after the US defaults on their own debt on August 2nd.  We've been cashing in our bullish winners and leaning a bit more bearish but, if we pop our Must Hold lines on the Dow (12,200) and the S&P (1,300) then we will just have to go with the bullish flow for the duration.   Our last trade of the day was a bullish flip on oil into today's 10:30 inventories but we also went long on UUP (July $21 calls at .43), which is bearish for the markets and took bearish spreads on the Nasdaq with SQQQ and the Russell with IWM so, on the whole – we'd be happier with a little dip.  

Either way – be careful out there!  

 


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  1. Oil Lines
    R3 – 97.1
    R2 – 96.1
    R1 – 94.88
    PP – 93.88
    S1 – 92.66
    S2 – 91.66
    S3 – 90.44
    Having trouble going through PP the entire morning! 


  2. Phil,
      With AAPL near it’s 200 MA, looking for a new play. Tried to get 2012 300/350 bull call for $23 selling $300 puts for $23 yesterday but didn’t fill. What would you suggest as a new play?
      Also, any adjustment to the XLF trade from the beginning of the year that would give us a free membership at year’s end?
    Thanks.


  3. Phil/Greece-  Okay, I’ll bite since it’s before trading hours….So if your morning commentary is to be believed the problems in Greece have nothing to do with insane entitlement programs and Government salaries/ pensions consuming over 50% of the entire Greek budget??? Historically, Greece has been in a constant state of near default because they can’t manage their finances. Now they have a problem in which we will soon enough find ourselves. I find it interesting that you look at the people cleaning up the mess as "selling their people down the river" just like the evil Michelle Bachmann and future republican senate will do??? You are joking, right?


  4. Phil--I got called on my NLY position--should I re establish after dividend date ?
    Thanks


  5. That was good hindsight in 2009:
    http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/08/hudson-financial-parasites-have-killed.html
    Key conclusions:

    The giant financial institutions have already killed their host – the real American economy

    Since they realize that the American economy is dead, they are trying to suck as much blood out of America as possible while the corpse is still warm

    Because the American economy is dead, their plan is to soon jump to anotherhost. They will ship all of their money overseas


  6. failed states — Yup, confirms the African land grab.


  7. stj -  Yeah, bankers "cleaning up the mess"  using their bought politicians as the enablers.  Unfortunately, at some point there won’t be any safe haven to ship their money to or hosts to devour.  I suppose only WWIII will provide the larger context in which all the global interconnectivity and the banking junta can be effectively broken and reset with a new world order.   Hard to see how the World Bank, IMF and UN would survive,  that’s just my dark opinion.


  8. parasites — I think of it more like ants and aphids where the ants farm the aphids. They will do their best NOT to kill the host.


  9. WWIII would strengthen the IMF and UN.


  10. Re Phil -attacking Iran in plan all along- you know, I believed that 4 years ago but I’d thought we’d have learned our lesson and/or being bankrupt would stop us….. Now I’m pretty sure that won’t be the case.


  11. Phil:
    I’m fairly good at math,but I’m confused on calculating return on your recommended TZA Jan $40/$50 BCS which you say is a 9900 % upside.
    I bought 12 of the BCS for net $2340. and sold 6 BA Jan. $60 P at $1.91 for $1146,so my net is $1194.If I divide $12,000 max profit by $1194 original investment, I get 1005%. Am I correct ? If not, what the right answer. thank you


  12. Rain – my point is that if the goal is to break the banking junta that has the global jugular in their vice grip, the only way feasible would be a WWIII scenario where the previous institutions and policiies (ie. junta) were seen as the cause and not the solution.  


  13. lv / junta — how would you fund WWIII then?


  14. FAS Income – Looking better this morning as the market is weak! With FAS trading around 24.10, no need for adjustment so far. 


  15. rain – let’s pick it up ah – interesting topic and most likely very relevant!


  16. @Jakester
    Felipe NEVER jokes about republicans being the incarnation of Satan on earth.
    He will NEVER take a democrat to task for causing any of the financial debacle as he does a republican. 
    There is only one book from which he preaches, though he does read opposing views (with a jaundiced eye, of course.).
    You are whistling in the wind to take an opposite view of his daily rant against all things republican. 
    Personally, I think Michele Bachman is very hot. 


  17.  Phil what do you want to do with the qqq weeklies from yesterday?


  18. lvmoda, ww3 between who and who?  China is not ready (yet) and there is no other alternative.  Social unrest and police states are more probable outcomes once people start rising up.  Banksters were ten times weaker 70 years ago and still managed to win ww2, while getting rid of their two worst enemies Adolf and Josef in the process by colliding them against each other.  This time around there will be no world war, until China gets attacked by US.


  19. Good morning!  

    Crazy day today with the Fed Announcement (12:30) and Bernanke’s Press Conference (2:15).  If Greece is not helping get the Dow and S&P over their goals (12,200 and 1,300) then it will be up to Ben to drop some kind of QE hint but I think either it’s in the Announcement or it’s too late because they don’t meet again until August.  

    We’re just watching our levels – we need one of the other indexes to pop the Must Hold zone in order to confirm bullishness – and that’s assuming the S&P can get there in the first place.  Rejection of the Dow and the S&P here followed by a failure of the -2.5% lines by one of our other indexes would constitute a failed rally and we would need to get more bearish on that so stay on your toes!  

    We had several good bearish hedges yesterday and they are still available at the same or better prices so nothing new.  We’ll be watching oil inventories carefully at 10:30 but, so far, they have not been able to take out $94 – which is very lame.  It’s also likely we have a lame drift into the Fed this afternoon.  Keep in mind – this is the how the Dow is holding up WITH FDX up 2.5%!   

    Wednesday’s economic calendar:
    FOMC Meeting, Day 2
    7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
    10:00 FHFA Housing Price Index
    10:00 Hearing: Small Business Access to Capital (Geithner)
    10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
    12:30 PM FOMC Announcement
    2:15 PM Bernanke Press Conference 

    At the open: Dow -0.31% to 12152. S&P -0.28% to 1292. Nasdaq -0.39% to 2677.
    Treasurys: 30-year +0.35%. 10-yr +0.33%. 5-yr +0.22%.
    Commodities: Crude +0.07% to $94.24. Gold +0.28% to $1550.70.
    Currencies: Euro -0.17% vs. dollar. Yen +0.02%. Pound -0.81%.

    Market preview: S&P futures -0.3% ahead of the FOMC probably keeping rates at 0-0.25%. The key words will be ‘extended period,’ meaning the Fed has no plans to raise rates any time soon. Philips plunges 13% following a profit warning. Banks are lower after HSBC downgrades Barclays, Lloyds and RBS, as well on continued fears about Greece despite the governnment surviving last night’s confidence vote. 

    MBA Mortgage Applications: -5.9% vs. +13% last week. Thirty-year fixed mortgage rate increased to 4.57% from 4.51%.

    The FOMC is due to wrap up a two-day meeting today, when it is likely to keep rates at 0-0.25% and confirm it will end its $600B bond buying scheme at the end of June. The key words in its statement will be ‘extended period,’ signalling the Fed has no plans to raise rates any time soon.

    If only we could see what Angela Merkel has seen over the past days, because the German Chancellor has gotten religion. After months of stressing the need for private sector involvement in the bailouts, she now seems convinced of the contagion fallout from such a policy.

    Some U.S. regulators and legislators are concerned about the $1T of European bank debt held by American money-market mutual funds. Because European banks hold huge amounts of Greek and other European government bonds, they are exposed to massive losses if a default occurs.

    It was only a few months back, markets were pricing in 75 basis points of rate hikes by the BoE in 2011. A string of weakish economic data is trumping troubling inflation numbers as expectations for the 1st bump move all the way out to August 2012.

    The pound is -0.53% against the dollar in the aftermath of BoE minutes which showed the governing council is mulling expanding its asset purchase plan in the face of weakening growth in the U.K.

    Barclays (BCS -3.4%), Lloyds (LYG -0.7%) and RBS (RBS -2.5%) are all showing weakness following a downgrade from HSBC. Sympathy moves and the continued Greek debt crisis are hitting other European banks as wellHBC -1.5%DB -0.4%CS -1.8%STD -0.7%,BBVA -1.6%

    "We are approaching the danger zone where the debt/GDP ratio (87%) becomes increasingly closely watched," warns the head of the French public audit office. President Sarkozy aims to bring the annual deficit down to 3% of GDP by 2013, from last year’s 7.1%.

    G20 farm ministers are meeting today in Paris against a background of rising crop prices due to droughts, flooding and export restrictions, but may find it difficult to agree on new rules to help boost food supply. In particular, it will be tough to get consent for limits to export controls.

    "Just good practice," says Fred Ponzo of the EU’s aim to release stress test results when markets are closed. Good for whom? Last year’s results were released during normal market hours to muted reaction. When markets are open, all traders have the same ability to act on the news.

    FedEx (FDX): FQ4 EPS of $1.75 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $10.55B (+11.9% Y/Y) beats by $0.16B. Sees Q1 EPS of $1.40 – 1.60 and FY’12 EPS of $6.35 – 6.85. Shares +2.4% premarket. (PR)

    CarMax (KMX+4.7% after beating earnings and revenue expectations. Comparable store used unit sales +6%. Wholesale unit sales +32% vs. Q1, reflecting "a significant increase in appraisal traffic combined with the benefit of a continued strong appraisal buy rate." (PR)

    Apple (AAPL) is planning on rolling out a new iPhone in September with the stronger A5 processor and more advanced camera, say sources. The new phone will run on the recently introduced iOS 5 operating system.


  20. Good morning,

     

    IWM 78.19, 78.51, 79.14, 79.59, 79.92, 80.54,  80.81 and 81.45

    Not a big gap down, so the Bulls may run; I’ll take direction at 10:00.


  21. Flip/Phil- Of course, you are right (as usual). Don’t know what I was thinking. Forgot what forum I was logged into for a moment.


  22. Good quote of the day and relevant to the WWIII discussion : "When a government is dependent upon bankers for money, they and not the leaders of the government control the situation, since the hand that gives is above the hand that takes… Money has no motherland; financiers are without patriotism and without decency; their sole object is gain." -Napoleon Bonaparte, 1815


  23. Phil--would you short CMG here?


  24. Goldman Sacks projects three ways we should expect Fed language to change today.

    • "Growth slowdown not so transitory": Bernanke will admit that the current growth slowdown is not just the result of transitory factors, but rather do to some underlying trends. The Fed will revise down its 2011 GDP growth projection to 2.7% from 3.2%.
    • "Core inflation picking up": Expect little change in Fed language on this issue, but an acknowledgment that core inflation is picking up, through a 0.1% increase in its inflation projections for 2011 and 2012.
    • "Policy in ‘zone of inaction’": The Fed remains in a position in which there will be no action for sometime. Language around how long that time period may become more specific, with Bernanke specifying an "extended period" means "at least a couple of meetings."

    Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-fomc-preview-june-2011-6#ixzz1Q0u1lX00


  25.  ratio back spread for /CL
    Just open position:
    buy 6 x Aug 36s Puts for $1.6
    and sell 12 x Aug 31s Puts for $0.87
    expecting to make 15-25% for 2 month
    nothing sexy from call side yet, may be latter


  26. Phil, FAS income trouble… still want to gamble into fed/tomorrow?  probably should roll…


  27. FAS Income / Phil – The position is "less" fine now with FAS at 24.77 and climbing. Any suggestions? Rolling the 23 Call to 2x the 24C and leaving the Put as is (it’s all premium) is one solution, but any hint of QE this afternoon would blow that away as well. Rolling to the July 26 Calls is not a great proposition now either! Or we just gamble on an anti-stick this afternoon and buy back the calls when we can and ride the put to Friday and collect what we can.


  28. In TZA (1/3) !!


  29. frenchy and I hit the panic button at the same time two days in a row.  I live among the french, it rubs off.


  30. This one’s for matt:


  31. phil,
    i have GLD Sep 145P. bought @ $3.18, now $2.11. is it a good idea to roll to Aug 150P? now $3. Thanks,


  32. tchayipov
    /CL AUG put only go down to 45 on TOS and do not have any more value ???


  33. Lapper – I live among Americans, so there you go! 


  34. AALP/Japar – For a very long time I have been saying that the ONLY trade I like on AAPL is selling the 2013 270 puts, now $27.  Net $243 is a very nice entry to AAPL, whether Jobs is alive or not and they topped out at $31.25 during the AAPL panic last week so they are more relaxing to hold than most AAPL positions.  The net margin on them is just $27 to make $27 so very fair for 18 month’s "worK" and, of course, they can be rolled to 2x the $225 puts, now $13.50 for a net $211.50 entry.  If you don’t REALLY want to own 2x APPL at net $211.50, then you shouldn’t be making any bullish trades on AAPL at all so, to me – it’s a perfect trade.  

    XLF/Japar – Sorry but we called that one out when it did have a 100% gain back in February.  That was the Jan $12/13 bull call spread at .80, selling the Jan $11 puts for .40 for net .40 and they were well over .80 in Feb and April and, even now, the $12/13 spread is .80 and the short puts are just .21 so still up 50% and there’s no reason to change it if you are still in it with XLF at $15 – all the bet was was that XLF would get to and hold $13 through Jan but we shot up to $17 in Feb from our $15.75 entry in December.  

    That Secret Santa Hedge on XLF can be replicated with XLF at $15 by taking the 2013 $11/12 bull call spread at .70, selling the 2013 $11 puts for .62 for net .08 on the $1 spread that’s $3 in the money.  The net margin on the $11 puts is $1.15 so that plus .08 cash puts you in for a .92 gain (1,150% on cash, 75% on cash and margin ) if XLF can avoid falling 20% by Jan 2013!  

    Cool map StJ!

    Politcs/Jake – How about save it for the weekend?.  I don’t know what I can possibly say to someone who doesn’t get (or doesn’t want to get) how fooling workers to accept less for their labor for DECADES by setting up elaborate long-term Ponzi pension systems and promising to provide health care in their old age (which causes them not to demand an adequate wage to cover the true costs in their future, which also has the added benefit of fooling them into spending money they should be saving based on a very false sense of security that is exacerbated by the lack of proper financial education offered in public schools) is not the workers fault when the Ponzi scheme falls apart.   I guess by your logic we should let Madoff go because the problems in his fund had nothing to do with the "insane" payouts he promised his victims.  The people "cleaning up the mess" are not cleaning anything up, they are covering their asses as they are the ones who made late loans into the Ponzi scheme and, now that it’s collapsing, they want to put someone else on the hook for the bill and that someone is the Greek people, who they will bleed dry for every last cent – just like any Bank that strips a company of it’s assets.  

    And what Flips said (except for thinking Bachmann is hot). 

    NLY/Savi – Why not just rebuy now?  They paid you for the stock and ate the premium on the calls so now you have cash and you can re-buy for $18.62 and sell Jan $15 calls for $3.80 and, if they want to pay you another .20 to call it again – let them!  The dividend is only .65, if they call you away 3 times, it’s just as good!  

    Hindsight/StJ – That does sum it up perfectly but, unfortunately, we have people who are completely unable to see what’s happening and, in fact, defend the actions of the bankers – even as they prepare to destroy our country as well.  It’s amazing but the Greeks were also suckers who voted in the jackals who promised to "fix" things – well they are good and fixed now, aren’t they?  

    Iran/Jrom – At some point we need to admit we just want to steal the oil and get it over with.  

    TZA/Dflam – The trade was the Jan $40/50 bull call spread at $2.25, offsetting with BA Jan $60 puts for $2.15 for net .10 on the $10 spread.  What you did is sell half the BAs for less money, so I guess it’s not surprising you would get a different result.  Still, 1,005% is nothing to sneeze at, is it?  The only problem is you are likely to lose your net $1,194 investment if the markets go up, rather than the $10 intended.  The idea was that we are long-term bullish and the hedge is JUST IN CASE – now you are betting on the just in case and you lose if our more likely long-term bullish scenario plays out.  

    QQQ/Bgb – Those $54 puts are .10 now and the idea was to play them for Greece falling apart and, if they didn’t (they didn’t) then we hoped to get out with .05.  Getting out with .10 is very good – we risked .03 to make a lot more.  You can keep them and bet the Fed disappoints at 12:30 but that’s a whole different bet so you’d be layering on the risk.  


  35. In any case, FAS is improving now (I mean going down!)…. 


  36. Has Abbey Cohen ever been bullish? ;-)


  37.  guys 
    sorry
    it is long Aug 86s
    and short Aug 81s


  38. stjeanluc
    FAS New weeklies to roll come only out tomorrow so I will wait and see My monthly play is fine!


  39. Phil, if we have trouble at 12200, would you go bearish with DIA puts?


  40. Phil NLY All my stock has been called They trading for 18.66 and the Jan 13 p is 3.70 if lucky no premium left the only Call is The Jan 10 but no interest I guess wehave to wait till after the 28th ??


  41. Hitting the dollar again for this little boost.


  42. Phil NLY only Jan 19 c has 21 cents premium!


  43. Phil, so they just nuked the dollar for .12 to 74.885.  We only got a 3 point SPX bounce…..  is that hiding selling?  Where would we be if they didnt destroy the dollar…..


  44. FAS / Yodi – Waiting for tomorrow is the original plan, but we want to make sure we don’t get blown off first. 


  45. Reuters: US Post suspends retirement payments to save cash.  Now we have retired people going postal.


  46. Napoleon/Rain – Funny how our greatest leaders have warned us of this over and over and over again for hundreds of years yet people still don’t wise up.  Perhaps that’s also why history is not really taught in our schools either or why "Liberal" Arts is sneered at by Conservatives because God forbid someone reads (or, even worse, writes!) a book or studies philosophy or history or some other subject that may throw a little light on the human condition.  It’s a simple concept – you can’t con people who have experience being conned so the key is to erase the knowledge of the past.  It also helps to encourage kids to think adults have nothing to teach them and that poor people are losers and not just people who lost the game of cut-throat Capitalism who may serve as a cautionary tale to those who are willing to listen to their experiences without pre-judging them as worthless….

    CMG/Savi – Too dangerous ahead of The Bernank but at $300 it will be irresistible.  

    GS/JRW – Thanks. Business Insider is getting better with that kind of stuff.  

    Nice oil trade Tcha – I’ll be interested to see how it goes.  

    FAS/$25KP, Lapper – Our plan was to stop out 20 of the calls at .85 so now we have just 20 short weekly $24 calls and I see no reason to take those off.  I think the pricing is silly as it was nowhere near this high yesterday when XLF was higher ($15.12) but what can you do?  I suppose there’s anticipation of a Fed rally but I’m very concerned that’s misplaced.  

    Oil going nowhere on a small net draw:  

    EIA Petroleum Inventories: Crude -1.7M vs. -3.4M prior. Gasoline -0.5M vs. +0.6M prior. Distillates +1.2M vs. -0.1M prior. Futures +0.98% to $95.07.


  47. stjeanluc
    FAS stk at 24.62 23 call 1.74 .12 cents premium as long as there is still premium I do not think they call!


  48. Out of TZA with 6 cents !!


  49.  Phil
    lets discuss some weekend income strategies,  I will share mine which make 10-15% monthly for last 6 mo (and another 6 on paper account)


  50.  if greece passes austerity measures…and euro calms…attention will turn to problems in brics…india has not even bounced with rest of world…shanghai barely


  51. In TNA (1/3)


  52. Fully in TNA !!


  53. FAS Money/StJ – Weren’t you just saying my target was TOO bullish yesterday?  As I said yesterday, if you sit there and watch the daily fluctuations, you will only drive yourself insane.  We CAN’T do anything until tomorrow, when the next weeklies come out so why even think about it?  Unless you feel very strongly that we will be unable to collect another .50 in premium next week, we are on track for collecting $15 in premium so unless you then think that FAS will move more than $15 outside of our coverage by January – there’s nothing to adjust.

    GLD/Ethan – Not looking good at the moment, is it?  Looks from gold like there are rumors of QE3, that’s probably not going to happen but the Dollar is down at 74.89 and down 0.7% since 6am so everything is grinding higher, but not as much as the Dollar is dropping so not really a good sign so far.  I’ll say the same thing I say every day – the Yen just hit 80.007 and that usually means the Dollar is done going down as the BOJ REALLY doesn’t want the Yen below 80.    The Euro is testing $1.445 and not making it so I think this is nothing but BS – as usual.  I do like the idea of going for it with the Aug $150 put , now $2.81 as it ups your delta nicely but I would sell the June 30th $1.50 put (now .60) for at least .50 if GLD breaks over $152 – just to protect yourself a bit.  

    Ryan/Rustle – I thought that was old news?  Why do people think these rich kids go into Congress anyway – it gives them a chance to do all sorts of favors.  

    Abby/Jabob – She’s noting if not consistent.  

    Bearish/Rustle – Well we need to wait for The Bernank.  As we expected, the Dow and S&P need a boost to get over their lines and they certainly expect one at 12:30.  It’s worth taking a chance here with a stop over the line.  The June 30th $120 puts are just .62 and should make a double on a 200-point drop while losing about a dime if we hit 12,225 and stop out.  


  54. NLY/Income Portfolio, Yodi – Ask for a .20 premium on the calls and then cover if they fill.  If not, not worth it.  You can also try selling the 2013s as it doesn’t matter to you as long as you get the protection and, if they call you away, they blow the same .20 as the Jan callers would.  Also, rather than rebuying the stock, you could sell the Aug $19 puts for $1.10 for a net $17.90 re-entry.  

    Dollar/Robert – That’s what I was just saying above.  This is a poor performance relative to the Dollar and our resistance levels are hanging tough after such a quick run up to hit them over the past 4 days.  

    LOL Lapper – Sad AND true!  

    Income/Tcha – Sure but better be early Sat as I’m out Sunday.  

    BRICs/Angel – Don’t go looking for trouble.  This market is fantastic at ignoring things until they are actually blowing up.  

    Europe closing flat

    10:00 AM On the hour: Dow -0.13%. 10-yr +0.25%. Euro -0.02% vs. dollar. Crude +0.75% to $94.88. Gold +0.48% to $1553.80.

    11:00 AM On the hour: Dow +0.13%. 10-yr +0.21%. Euro +0.15% vs. dollar. Crude +0.79% to $94.91. Gold +0.75% to $1558.00. 

    April FHFA Housing Price Index: +0.8% M/M vs. -0.4% in March (revised). It’s the first monthly increase since May 2010. Prices -5.7% Y/Y. 

    Punch #1 to knock down the Dollar:  Nothing surprising in today’s comments from Mohammed El-Erianthat Greece and other EU state’s are likely to default in some fashion. Of more interest is his brushing aside the meme that Greece alone could provoke another GFC. "Too small in terms of economic impact," he contends.

    Punch #2:  Can we make it through the summer? Bill Gross tweets that he expects ideas for QE3 and interest rate caps to be floated at August’s Jackson Hole gathering

    "We should put one notion to rest," writes Stratfor, shaking its head at all the attention focused on Greece, "no one event, crisis or decision will cause the eurozone to collapse." Rules and laws mean little and will be violated as necessary to keep everything together. When all else fails, the ECB will print money.

    Ex-IMF Chief Economist: Debt Ceiling Default Would Be “A Calamity” (TPM)

    Greek savers rush for gold (FT)

    FedEx (FDX +2.2%) posted a 33% jump in its latest quarterly earnings and expects a robust 2012, citing an improving global economy that has increased shipping volumes across all its transport segments. Good news, right? Maybe, but similar bullishness wasn’t a very accurate leading indicator last quarter from the company that’s reputed to be aneconomic bellwether.

    Facing insolvency, and believing its pension fund to be massively overfunded, the USPS will suspend employee retirement contributions for the remainder of 2011, saving $800M. The larger issue is a $5.5B health benefit payment due September 30, which the USPS will not be able to make.

    JPMorgan Chase’s (JPM +0.2%) $154M settlement with the SEC over the marketing of a complex mortgage-linked deal may be relatively small, but Chris Whalen believes there are still some $30B worth of potential claims against the bank. "The Street is worried about this big-time litigation," Whalen tells Reuters.

     L.A. suit calls Deutsche Bank a slumlord (LA Times)

    Our Story: The Press-Enterprise (My Stolen Home)

    Low-fare carrier and trend-setter Spirit Airlines (SAVE), will charge passengers who don’t print their own boarding passes $5 more than those who do. The move comes after nearly all its customers said they would prefer a lower fare in exchange for checking in online. - I LOVE this stuff.  They "survey" people who say they would like to get a lower fare for checking in on-line but what they actually do is begin charging people who don’t check in more while the people who do check in pay the same.  Way to answer your customers’ wishes!  The worst thing is, when Spirit gets away with more crap, it quickly spreads to other airlines…  

    Congress doesn’t like it when Big Business bribes other people:  The Senate Finance Committee is investigating whether surgeons who received large sums of money from Medtronic (MDT -0.6%) failed to note complications associated with a bone-growth protein that has become widely used in spinal surgery.

    Buy the RIMM dip? Macquarie initiates coverage on Research In Motion (RIMM -1%) at Outperform, saying global trends are in its favor – though shares are trading lower after the company slashed targets by up to two-thirds. RIMM down more than 22% in the past five days.

    Turntable.fm Really Is Awesome. Is It Legal? (All Things) see also How Apple’s iCloud Could Squeeze Billions More From Tightfisted Music Lovers (Fast Company)


  55.  Phil
    Any opinion on PHG after today’s nosedive? Looking at the Jan 22.50′s or the 20′s as a possible put sale entry.
     
    Or just wait for the Fed?


  56. Yodi/NLY, where do you see Jan 13 puts? I see 12.50 and 15.


  57. 1/3 out of TNA with $1.20; I will likely be 100% cash at 12:30 !!


  58. jomptien--he means Jan 2013 I think


  59. Phil, 
    Got burned on small position on FSII, it has traded in this range for well over a year and seems to come back from these levels every time. It is profitable and has a P/E of 7 (projected FY PE of 5). Do you feel this was due to weakness on the SOX overall? Worth a shot to average down as it was 1x entry?
    Thanks 


  60. jomptien
    They are JAN 13 puts yes 10p 12.5p and 15p but I am looking to sell as Phil says check above!!


  61. Another 1/3 for $1.00 !!


  62.  NLY — The price on the Jan 2013 15 calls is no better than the price on the Jan 2012 15 calls…$3.65/$3.75…and with the stock at $18.71, there’s really not much to work with.


  63. All out of TNA; $1.06 avg, or 1 1/2%. It seems I’m a tad rusty from the vacation   8-)


  64. I think ABX is on Phil’s buy list: 10 Reasons Barrick Gold Is at Least 40% Undervalued



  65. Phil – Is there a trade on TBT here…calls?


  66. Rates will stay low forever…but nothing about qe3…maybe down from here


  67. BTFD!


  68. lapper, not much ammo to keep the dollar way down here..be careful


  69. No change from the Fed.  Dollar poking back over 75 but little reaction overall but this is bearish with the Fed recognizing inflation in their changed language (no QE3):

     

    Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April indicates that the economic recovery is continuing at a moderate pace, though somewhat more slowly than the Committee had expectedAlso, recent labor market indicators have been weaker than anticipated.  The slower pace of the recovery reflects in part factors that are likely to be temporary, including the damping effect of higher food and energy prices on consumer purchasing power and spending as well as supply chain disruptions associated with the tragic events in Japan.  Household spending and business investment in equipment and software continue to expand.  However, investment in nonresidential structures is still weak, and the housing sector continues to be depressed.  Inflation has picked up in recent months, mainly reflecting higher prices for some commodities and imported goods, as well as the recent supply chain disruptions.  However, longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

    Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability.  The unemployment rate remains elevated; however, the Committee expects the pace of recovery to pick up over coming quarters and the unemployment rate to resume its gradual decline toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate.  Inflation has moved up recently, but the Committee anticipates that inflation will subside to levels at or below those consistent with the Committee’s dual mandate as the effects of past energy and other commodity price increases dissipate.  However, the Committee will continue to pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations.

    To promote the ongoing economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent.  The Committee continues to anticipate that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period.  The Committee will complete its purchases of $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of this month and will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings.  The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate.

    The Committee will monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will act as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability.

    Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Charles I. Plosser; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen.

     


  70. Nothing drastic but I like the QQQ $55 puts .30 as a fun way to play a sell-off. 


  71. @ Phil, so basically this fake rally will at most continue for a week or two, and during july we will be back to max pain, and then on the august fed meeting (jackson hole) they will announce qe3 just like last year.


  72. like i said, BTFD…. sickening!


  73. If DX breaks through 74.90 im going to have to give up on the dollar


  74. Phil:
    Since the oil is above $95, is there good trade using SCO?


  75. The jig is up !!

    I just heard Rush Limbaugh talking about an article on Federally financed stock market manipulation to convince the public that all is well !!  What will those right wing whackos come up with next ?  8-)


  76. JRW, did not know you listen to Rush :)


  77.  PHG/Deano –  That was some really crappy outlook, I’d wait for the downgrade police to have at them and see how they hold up.   

    FSII/Amatta – It’s a penny stock essentially, I have no idea why they go up or down and the P/E is meaningless with a $112M market cap that goes up and down 20% a day and quarterly earnings that went from +6M to -2.5M to +5M in the past 4 months.  These kind of companies are gambling – the numbers are meaningless – you may as well be looking at a roulette wheel and betting red because the last 10 rolls were black.  

    NLY/Esco – If you can’t get your price don’t get back in.  Tomorrow is another day, as is the day after and the day after. As I said above, selling the puts is the same as buying back the stock $1 cheaper but you can’t make the caller pay you more than they want to (but you can ASK for more and see if it gets filled).  

    ABX/Rain – Always a good stock and pretty reasonable at $45.35.  I like the 2013 $30/40 bull call spread at $6.80, selling the $40 puts for $4.95 for net $1.85 on the $10 spread and the worst case is you own them for net $41.85 with a break-even at $35.93.

    Oil futures can be shorted below the $95 line but watch out for the Dollar if they break lower (than 75.97) instead of higher, as I expect it will.  

    TBT/David – They have held $32 very well so selling the July $33 puts for $1.07 is a pretty good deal.  I wouldn’t want to pay premium betting them higher but collecting it betting they don’t go lower is a lot easier.  

    China/Angel – That would be interesting. 

    Fake rally/Asaenz – Sure, what do the minutes say that is bullish?  The Fed recognized that inflation is taking hold, they do not intend to extend QE2 and they are downgrading their view on the economy.  WHERE’S THE BEEF?

    SCO/.Rick – Very risky but SCO July $46/50 bull call spread at $2, selling USO Aug $35 puts for .96 is net $1.04 on the $4 spread and $35 on USO is $90 oil and you’d have $3 profit in your pocket that protects you to $85 oil if it keeps falling (but you can add more SCO longs).  

    Rush/JRW – Good to know he’s still on top of things.


  78. Yodi, Savi/NLY – Yes I see the 15 puts


  79. In $25KP, let’s sell 20 FAS weekly $25 calls for .27 ($540).  That leaves us covered with 20 $25 calls and 20 $24 calls against 80 July $24 calls.  


  80. Reuters:
    UPDATE 1-Women can’t keep breast implants for life-FDA
     
    FDA – wrong as usual.


  81. Phil/TZA: I understand the trade was the Jan $40/50 bull call spread at $2.25, offsetting with BA Jan $60 puts for $2.15 for net .10 on the $10 spread. I also understand the math now.
    I only sold 1/2 of the BA puts because I want my initial entry in BA  to be max.of 600 shares,not 1200 shares. I want to sell puts on something else to make up the difference. Also,I needed much more protection on the downside to cover my covered calls positions which expire in 2012 and 2013.To complete the position ,can you recommend a Put to be sold? What about selling six VZ,JAN $35 AT $1.95?


  82. Both volume ratio and money flow are negative since yesterday morning !!
     


  83. 12:00 PM On the hour: Dow -0.05%. 10-yr +0.33%. Euro -0.16% vs. dollar. Crude +0.39% to $94.54. Gold +0.64% to $1556.30.  

    01:00 PM On the hour: Dow -0.01%. 10-yr +0.19%. Euro flat vs. dollar. Crude +0.85% to $94.97. Gold +0.54% to $1554.80.

    Fed Open Market Committee: As expected with weak data since the last meeting, the panel lowers its outlook – but maintains near-zero rate policy and will stick with it for an "extended period." QE2 ends next week, though principal will continue to be reinvested. The vote: unanimous.

    More from FOMC: After a spate of disappointing numbers, the panel says the recovery is slower – and labor market weaker – than it had expected, but there’s still second-half optimism. Inflation picking up, but stable long-term. Those looking for a hint of QE3 come up empty here, and will have to look ahead to Bernanke’s 2:15 p.m. news conference. 

    Treasurys continue to trade slightly higher, showing no real reaction to yet another carbon-copy Fed policy statement. The 30-year yield -0.02 to 4.2%; 10-year -0.03 to 2.96%; five-year -0.04 to 1.51%; two-year -0.01 to 0.36%. S&P 500 moderately off, -0.2% to 1,293.

    In a requiem for QEII, market wags love it or hate it depending on whether they believe higher asset prices can lead the economy upwards. Perhaps most convincing is Peter Morici, who calls the policy "as inconsequential as one hand clapping."

    Always ready with a lesson, Mr. Market might say talk of droughts, floods, and disastrous shortages might be cause to go the other way. Wheat is getting hammered again, now off about 25% in a month, and still maybe not yet cheap. JJG -3.3%CORN -3.7%.

    The Greek governing majority is cut to 4 as PASOK MP Athanasiadis says he will not vote for the new austerity measures. Balancing that is a statement from an opposition MP who says if it comes down to him, he will turn around and vote for the package. 

    The Greek cabinet approves a 5 year austerity plan mandated by the EU/IMF. The legislation now moves to parliament, where it must be approved by month-end to meet the rescuers’ deadline.

    Customers at the Paris Air Show are bypassing Boeing (BA -1.6%) in favor of Airbus (EADSY.PK), which has amassed $26B in ordersin the first two days of the show. The European firm has received large commitments from India’s IndiGo, Indonesian airline Garuda, CITGE’s commercial aircraft leasing and finance division, and probably a $17B deal with AirAsia. 

    Despite its earnings beat, Adobe (ADBE -6.8%) sinking after its third-quarter earnings forecast (EPS of $0.50-$0.56, vs. expected $0.54)disappoints investors. The firm reports getting a "positive reception" to its May release of the flagship Creative Suite. (earnings call transcript)

    This will not end well:  UBS (UBS -0.7%) will cut nearly 6% of its tech staff, saving a reported "double digit millions" in Swiss francs, following similar cost-cutting by Lloyds (LYG -1%) and Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS -1.7%). The bank hasn’t said whether a charge against the cuts is forthcoming.

    Fining them Millions for making Billions:  Morgan Keegan (RFwill pay $200M as settlement for SEC and other regulatory charges it defrauded investors by inflating the value of subprime paper held in several of its bond funds.  Tipping off who got the better shake in Morgan Keegan’s $200M settlement of fraud charges, the broker’s parent, Region’s Financial (RF),pops nearly 2% on the news.

    Three lunchtime reads:
    1) QE2 proves no silver bullet
    2) Greece: It’s not Lehman
    3) Roubini: That stalling feeling


  84. Yes, but institutional investors are buying?

    P/C rato is back to standard 1.7 range, and has been rising through out the morning.


  85. Offsetting Short Puts for Bearish Spreads/Dflam:

    • INTC is still pretty cheap at $21.50 and the Jan $20 puts are $1.23
    • RIMM you know I like with Sept $27.50 puts at $2.40
    • WFR always a favorite, Jan $9 puts are $1.57
    • AA still nice at $15.50, Jan $15 puts are $1.35
    • CHK still under $30, Oct $28 puts are $1.80
    • C Jan $35 puts can be sold for $2
    • BTU Jan $50 puts pay $3.60
    • ACI Jan $22.50 puts are $1.70
    • VZ Jan $35 puts at $1.95 are good too! 

    This is very interesting – seems to me that the bulls are holding out hope that Ben will come out at 2:15 and say "Oh forget that statement that was drawn up at the end of a two day meeting and voted on – here’s some free money!"  

    Amazon (AMZN -0.7%) will take on Apple (AAPL +0.2%) inlaunching tablet PCs for sale as soon as August or September, with targeted global sales of 4M units for 2011, DigiTimes reports, citing unnamed Taiwanese component makers. Amazon reportedly will use processors developed by Texas Instruments (TXN). 


  86. Does anyone have a link to a website that charts a stock’s implied volitility? Thanks.


  87. Wow, they actually managed to import EVEN LESS OIL than last week!  

    Just 9.3Mbd vs 9.5Mbd last week so another 1.4Mb shorted for the week…  

    At the same time, the refineries used 100Kbd more oil, the that draws 700Kb from the inventory that’s not replenished by the imports – they are pulling every trick in the book to make demand look better than it is ahead of the holiday.  The most interesting thing is there was actually a net build of total stockpiles of 3Mb – not a draw at all.  

    $25KP Let’s kill the USO Oct $40 calls at $1.70 – done with that trade.


  88. Liking the short play on oil below $95.50 of course too.


  89. Oil – Remember 94.88 is R1 and that is support now. It has held well since 1:00 PM. I would be careful shorting before we go through that. 


  90. 02:00 PM On the hour: Dow +0.06%. 10-yr +0.09%. Euro -0.04% vs. dollar. Crude +1.25% to $95.35. Gold +0.41% to $1552.80.

    I hate it when Cramer agrees with me – makes me question my assumptions:   "There are actually a lot of times where I am not bullish, and this is one of them," Jim Cramer says. "I don’t expect a robust market. A retest of lows seems more likely." Overhanging everything, he says: the budget outcome in D.C., a symbol of investors’ declining faith in U.S. debt. Without fundamental change, "we will always have one foot out the door of the stock market."


  91. $94.88/StJ – So you would blow off the move from $95.50 to $94.88 waiting to see if that holds?  That’s 2 stops down on the futures (and over $500 per contract) vs stopping out with a $50 loss at $95.55.  While you want to use a line like that to get in and out of a trade – you can’t play the futures without taking advantage of the in-between moves.  


  92. From the UK Guardian:  

     


    For only the second time, Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke will take the microphone for an open press conference today at 2.15pm ET – at a moment when fears that the US economy is sliding back into recession, thanks to anaemic growth, lacklustre job creation and the lasting effects of the financial market and housing meltdown going back three years.

    The climate for the US economy has certainly got worse since Bernanke debut press conference – and this afternoon appearance before the media should see more probing questions about how the Federal reserve intends to handle monetary policy going forward.

    From Market Watch:

    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The Federal Reserve cut its economic growth forecast for the second time this year, reducing its estimate of 2011 gross domestic product growth to a range of 2.7% to 2.9%, down from 3.1% to 3.3% in April and 3.4% to 3.9% in January. It’s also cut its 2012 forecast from this lower base, to a level showing 3.3% to 3.7% growth from the 3.5% to 4.2% growth that the Fed forecast in April. The Fed is expecting core inflation between 1.5% to 1.8% this year, up from 1.3% to 1.6% previously, and for the price index for personal consumption expenditures to climb between 2.3% and 2.5%, vs. the April projection of 2.1% to 2.8%. It’s also more worried about unemployment, forecasting the 2011 jobless rate between 8.6% and 8.9% vs. April’s estimate of 8.4% to 8.7% unemployment rate. 

    The higher unemployment forecast and weak long-term outlook is what’s giving the bulls hope that the Fed will still want to keep the easy money flowing but they need a less-vague indication from The Bernank to get comfortable buying between now and August.  We’ll see in a few minutes...


  93.  Oil / Phil – Out of $95.50 it does make sense because you have $0.50 to pay with, I was responding to your earlier comment to short below 95…


  94. so far:  All will be well, GDP will grow, unemployment will ease, and we have inflation….
    bullish…..NOT!


  95. He isnt saying it, and he keeps using the term extraordinary measures..meaning its less likely to happen again..so far I would take what he’s saying as bearish for the markets and good for the dollar but markets dont care.


  96. does he have to spell it out for you?  NO QE3 (yet).  market get a clue!


  97. Bernanke’s remarks knocked the Dollar down to 74.94 again, that’s a .13% drop and that’s about how much the indexes moved up so still not real.  

    Oil is annoyingly right at $95.50 line so very hard to play up here – just a game of quick nickels so far but I still can’t see Ben giving them what they need to stay bullish.  Very dangerous game with the Dollar below 75, of course. 

    By the way, here’s the new NYMEX strip, now that they got rid of July:  

    Month 
    Click for chart
    Session   Pr.Day   Options
    Open High Low Last Time Sett Chg Vol   Sett OpInt  
    Aug 11 93.76 95.70 93.24 95.51 Jun 22, 14:15
    -
    1.34 233089   94.17 345510   Call Put 
    Sep 11 94.05 96.21 93.74 96.02 Jun 22, 14:15
    -
    1.42 65512   94.60 157402   Call Put 
    Oct 11 94.49 96.65 94.18 96.44 Jun 22, 14:15
    -
    1.48 26717   94.96 71000   Call Put 
    Nov 11 94.62 97.05 94.62 96.88 Jun 22, 14:15
    -
    1.55 15334   95.33 58414   Call Put 
    Dec 11 95.33 97.41 94.95 97.18 Jun 22, 14:15
    -
    1.52 36910   95.66 189983   Call Put 

    Still 573M barrels in the front three months – isn’t that amazing?  

    Oil/StJ – OK, just making sure you know that as you can miss a lot waiting for those lines (although they are the best places to initiate trades with tight stops).  

    Oh finally the damned thing breaks down – was getting annoyed.  Thrilled to take .15 or .20 and run (and especially .25) and wait for the next .50 cross to play again (the .25s are too iffy)


  98. Phil
    Is there a way to play the front three months with USO? Can they really move those 573m barrels without oil moving down?


  99. I say this should be cause for concern:
    http://www.bellona.org/articles/articles_2011/rosatom_report
    But hey, maybe it’s just me and there is nothing to it. It’s not like we have not had a nuclear accident in a while! 


  100. Phil-what are your thoughts on NEM and can you give me a bullish play on them? Thx.


  101. In TZA (1/3) on the 8 EMA and the failure of my IWM 80.81 line !! 

    Or, it could be that I’m just bored !!  :roll:
     

    No, now I have negative order flow divergence; another 1/3 !!


  102. Kustomz / IV — Perfect. Thanks!


  103. USO/DC – They’ve been moving those same 600Mb around for a year now so you can’t go by that.  What we watch is the clock as they tick down to front month expiration – looking at how full the next months are and how many barrels they have to get rid of and how many barrels a day they have been able to move in the trailing 5 days.  As this month’s cycle just started – we have no benchmarks, hence no major calls on oil at the moment as they can pretty much push it either way.  However, my reading of the Fed statement and the silly run back to $95.50 gave me the idea that at least we could make a nice futures short (after blowing a nickel at the $95 line earlier).  

    75.14 – Go Bucky go!  

    Russia/StJ – Not shocking but so scary…

    NEM/Jrom – My thoughts on NEM are that ABX is a totally superior company with far better growth prospects, better reserves, better management and almost twice the cash flow.  Also, as I’m sure you are aware, NEM has outperformed ABX for the past 6 months by 15% and that is the exact opposite of any long-term measured performance, which indicates ABX has a lot more room to move up at the moment.  

    Tricky JRW with the Dollar rejected at 75.15, watch the 75.10 line – we still don’t know what Dr. Ben is going to say – he gets a little silly as these Q&A sessions move on and they could have a "plant" question that lets him drop a bombshell.  


  104. Fully in TZA now on the break through my 80.54 line !!


  105. Overseas outlook: 5 things to watch
    Here are the five key macro themes I am following—and how they have shaped my investment strategy.

    Stocks: The sustainability of China’s secular growth story and its impact on the rest of the world.
    Currencies: The ongoing hangover from the credit crisis and its implications for monetary policy and the U.S. dollar.
    Bonds: The value proposition of sovereign debt in the developed world against a backdrop of high debt and negative real interest rates.
    Commodities: The increasing scarcity of the world’s natural resources and its implication for the commodity super cycle.
    Precious metals: Their role as a store of value (i.e., a currency).

    Let’s look deeper at each.



  106. JRW,
    What is "negative order flow divergence".  Haven’t seen you reference it before.
    Thanks.


  107. Order flow just turned positive, and the dollar is falling, careful !!

    Selling 1/3 of TZA for a 52 cent gain.

    Will sell another 1/3 on a break back over 80.54 !!


  108. wealthwarrior

    Here !!


  109. Wow, WFR at levels not seen since 2004!


  110. Phil/ TZA spread:
    Well,here’s what I ended up with:
    12 TZA Jan. $40/ $50 BCS at net $1.95
    sold 6 BA,Jan. $60 P at $1.91 (stock now at $72.39)
    Sold 10 AA Jan. $15 P at $1.36 (stock now At $15.40
    net for position is $166 / 1200 = $.14 on $10 spread.max profit is $12,000 less $168 = $11.832,not counting any losses below BA and AA strike prices. Correct?
    stop at $1.15 but bid /ask prices have very wide range.Thanks for your help.


  111.  Phil
     
    How about an earnings play for ORCL?


  112. 03:00 PM On the hour: Dow -0.21%. 10-yr -0.04%. Euro -0.25% vs. dollar. Crude +0.95% to $95.06. Gold +0.17% to $1549.00.

    Fed releases updated economic projections: Sees 2011 GDP of 2.7-2.9% vs. 3.1-3.3% range in April, unemployment rate of 8.6-8.9% vs. 8.4-8.7% in April, core PCE inflation of 1.5-1.8% vs. 1.3-1.6% in April. 

    A couple of key numbers from CoreLogic’s latest report onhousing’s shadow inventory: 1) 1.7M homes are seriously delinquent, in the foreclosure process or not currently listed for sale – down from 1.9M a year ago, reflecting fewer newly delinquent loans; 2) ~2M current negative equity loans are more than 50% or $150,000 upside down.

    At his press conference, Bernanke gives himself a pat on the back, pointing out payroll growth in the months since his Jackson Hole QEII speech is more than double that of the months prior. The dollar sees a little pop. UUP flat for the day.

    "Transitory" has thankfully yet to be used, but one theme of Bernanke’s press conference is his belief the economy will emerge just fine from its current soft patch. QE3 seems off the table for now. Dollar continuing to catch a bid. UUP +0.2%.

    As the Fed continues to err on the side of easing, there’s no reason to believe the bull market in gold has ended, says Dennis Gartman. But the reality of a weakening economy – as evidenced in recent purchasing managers’ reports – also means copper will go lower, so use it as a hedge. Long gold, short copper… call it a ‘Bernanke’ hedge. 

    Regarding Greece, Bernanke says the Fed requested U.S. banks to perform "stress tests" on themselves for their exposure. The result: minimal impact. Feel better?

    Responding to a question as to why QE would not be continued given the Fed’s lower growth forecast, Bernanke says the outlook now is a lot better than it was late last summer. Also, deflation was a possibility then, a threat he believes is now off the table. Dollar continuing to catch a bid, now near the highs of the day vs. most major currencies.

     "I’m a little more sympathetic to central bankers than I was 10 years ago," says Fed chief Bernanke in response to a Japanese reporter bringing up then-Professor Bernanke’s call 10 years ago for the BOJ to get its act in gear. Press conference over.


  113. @ Phil so since Bernanke wasn´t able to lift the markets to the levels you discussed on the morning, shouldn´t we turn more bearish now? Or should we just wait and see if the markets can hold the -2.5% levels? Thanks!


  114. Back to fully in TZA; support at IWM 80.33 (200 SMA) and 80.20 (R/S) !!


  115. TZA/Dflam – Sounds good to me.  You can keep an eye on BA at $70 and AA at $15 and take 1/2 off the table if they fail.  The assumption is that, if those are failing, your TZAs should be doing well and then you have more flexibility should you have to roll.  

    ORCL/Deano – They are not at all cheap and I would think Japan gave them a bad Q BUT they are right off the 200 DMA at $31 with a strong bounce so I would have to call them too confusing to play.  I suppose if you just want to put in a fun play on them you can sell 5 July $33 calls for .66 ($330) and buy 3 Sept $34 calls for .94 ($282) for a net $48 credit on the assumption that they are unlikely to pop for more than 3% ($1) and more likely to disappoint on a miss – in which case the short calls expire worthless and you make $48 + whatever is left on the longs.  

    Markets just melting away now.   

    More bearish/Asaenz – Well yes but I hope my morning call to grab yesterday’s hedges was bearish enough.  As a new trade, the Nas is still high (thanks to MoMo fever) and the SQQQ July $26/29 bull call spread at $1.25 can be offset with any of our above short put trades like INTC Jan $20 puts at $1.23 for net .02 on the $3 spread that’s already $1.79 in the money (up 5,866%)!


  116. 75.25!   


  117. Beautiful on oil – got to StJ’s $94.88 line again (from 8:35!) where they do have support.  That support is likely to fail but that’s no reason not to take 1/2 and run at least and go back in below the line with a stop on the rest at $95, of course on the bear trades.  Congrats to all the players – stickin’ it to the NYMEX Pump Boyz once again!  


  118. Phil / Ben   I think the most important comment was that immediate sharp spending cuts will not create jobs.  He’s punctured the GOP crusade for now and budget ceiling raise now a given.  This takes away a big threat to stupid layoffs which would ensure a Ddip.  Removes some risk from GDP downside.  Net positive for stocks.


  119. @ JR, what if we break the 80.20 mark? a lot more downside? thanks!


  120. CMG July $300/280 bear put spread at $11, selling Aug $300s for $10 is net $1 on the $15 spread.  Risky of course but good if you have the margin for it.  

    Net positive/Tusca – Only free money is a positive for stocks.  Stocks don’t want people to work – just spend.  


  121. @ Phil, what do you expect for the rest of the week? DD on the weekly QQQ $55 puts (now up 50%), sold 1/3 … should i let the rest run?


  122. I thought with Ben speaking today, end of quarter coming, and Fedex results, we would be up today…shows what I know!


  123. All out of TZA now for another  2 1/2% !!  4 % on the day !!   Have a good evening !!   8-)


  124. asaenz

    No time left………………….today   !!


  125. Hey!  This is fun!!  Friggin bastards had me sweating the first 3/4 of the day-


  126. No bounce, they’re still taking her down!


  127. JRW, Im surprised your out already


  128. Damn, I hate leaving money on the table; nobody tell my wife, OK ?


  129. Turned out to be a beautiful day in the market.


  130. rainman, JRW, rustle – you guys in for Vegas?


  131. @nicha
    You bet.  Want to go skydiving?


  132. kustomz,

     I have that rule about cash every night  8-)

    But if you’re still short, it looks good to me !!


  133. vegas — what were the finaliized dates?


  134.  From big loss to small gain, couldn’t be happier, TZA pulled me out of the mud, cheers everyone!


  135.  

    Did I miss something ?


  136. Love it when a plan comes togetta..Greece is fixed for the time being (no fuel for the Euro), the Nanke didnt say anything to kill the dollar and markets are ready to continue the DT.


  137. Rest of week/Asaenz – I still think they have to try to find a way to pump us up.  They have to talk up the Euro ($1.436) and the Pound ($1.606) to get the Dollar (75.24) back down.  I’d hate to have to rely on earnings to boost stocks!  Keep in mind there are tens of Billions riding on this for the IBanks – who will have a very hard time finding customers for new accounts if the market is negative for the quarter (we’re still 3%ish for the year):

    As to the weekly QQQ puts – SHAME ON YOU if you don’t take a 50% profit off the table on a put that expires in 48 hours!  That’s just ridiculous.  Take some of the profits and make the SQQQ spread but you don’t risk a 50% one-day gain.  

    $94.60 oil!!! 

    75.28!  

    75.30!  

    94.54!  

    Nice calls JRW!  

    That was a near perfect day – lots of fun – Thanks Uncle Ben!  

    94.53!


  138. JRW thanks for the chart porn 8-)

     


  139. Wow. We got that move on anemic volume of 125M!


  140. I don’t think it’s officially finalized yet, but it was 10/8-10/9.  I’ll come a little earlier, can’t do Vegas for two days.


  141. At the close: Dow -0.66% to 12110. S&P -0.65% to 1287. Nasdaq -0.67% to 2669.
    Treasurys: 30-year +0.02%. 10-yr +0.06%. 5-yr +0.06%.
    Commodities: Crude +0.41% to $94.56. Gold -0.18% to $1550.60.
    Currencies: Euro -0.43% vs. dollar. Yen -0.26%. Pound -1.1%.
     

    Market recap: Stocks slumped down the stretch as Bernanke offers no hint of QE3 despite the Fed’s lower assessment of the economy. The conditions that prompted QE2 basically are no longer present, he said, so stocks fell, the dollar rallied, and Treasurys pared gains. Greece, after passing its confidence vote yesterday, was on the back burner. NYSE decliners led advancers two to one. 

    "The direct impact is manageable and can be absorbed by their profits with no impact on their equity," says S&P’s top European banking analyst about the effect on EU lenders of a Greek default.

    Iceland returns to the international bond market, selling $1B in 5 year eurobonds priced to yield 4.99%. "No one dared dream (of this) so soon after the collapse," says a bank economist. Greek 5 year paper is priced to yield 19.75%. Spanish 5 years, 4.75%. - So Iceland is already as good as Spain.  Greeks are just huge suckers not defaulting!  

    Hoping to speed along the process of building public housing, China is making it easier for local governments to issue bonds. Already saddled with staggering amounts of off-balance sheet debt, localities will hopefully now be more transparent about how they spend their borrowed funds. 

    La-Z-Boy (LZB -11.6%) plummets after Wall Street Strategies analyst Brian Sozzi cuts shares to Hold from Buy, citing “basically non-existent” retail store traffic and rising commodity prices. La-Z-Boy metFQ4 earnings expectations, but CEO Kurt Darrow notes consumer buying attitudes "lacking the same robustness" seen in the early months of 2011.

    As analysts argue over whether Apple (AAPL -0.7%will begin to ship Apple TV late this year or early next, the more pertinent issue is why Apple even would get into TV. After all, demand for iPads and other tablets isn’t just strangling the PC business, it’s hurting sales of high-definition TV sets.

    Paychex (PAYX): FQ4 EPS of $0.33 in-line. Revenue of $523M (+5.3% Y/Y) beats by $8M. Shares +1.7% AH. (PR


  142.  Phil: futures
    Hope you are going to continue the futures training.  I’m just warming to the TOS trading platform and like what I see.  Years ago I traded futures by trying to think fundamentals.  Watching your trades I see more important to recognize the spots to trade and be disciplined.  Patience and Discipline is that from the Karate Kid?  
     
    cheers


  143. Phil
    Time to get somewhat more bearish now, looking at the overall Fed events of today and the past few days in Greece?
    Strether



  144. Phil – Your next president and just because Flip thinks that she it hot!
    http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/michele-bachmanns-holy-war-20110622
    Key paragraph:
    In modern American politics, being the right kind of ignorant and entertainingly crazy is like having a big right hand in boxing; you’ve always got a puncher’s chance. And Bachmann is exactly the right kind of completely batshit crazy. Not medically crazy, not talking-to-herself-on-the-subway crazy, but grandiose crazy, late-stage Kim Jong-Il crazy — crazy in the sense that she’s living completely inside her own mind, frenetically pacing the hallways of a vast sand castle she’s built in there, unable to meaningfully communicate with the human beings on the other side of the moat, who are all presumed to be enemies. 


  145. Well, if we can’t fix the economy, at least we’ll be able to get stoned in order to deal with it: Barney Frank and Ron Paul Introduce Bill to End Federal Marijuana Prohibition


  146. At last our Representatives get together to solve America’s problems – Barney Frank and Ron Paul introduce legislation to Legalize Marijuana!  


  147. THANK F’in Bejezus for that one!  I have been saying it for years!


  148. @SJL
    I never let a woman’s politics interfere with my assessment of her hotinesss.  I can honestly say and do I hear a YEAH! that most women are, if not completely insane, then neurotic to their core.  The most successful, accomplished women I have ever dated were jealous, paranoid, aggressive, and batshit crazy.  Including the current lady in residence. Look at Hillary Rodman Clinton. Maxine WAters. Nancy Pillosi (sic), Barney Frank, Patricia What’s her name, Rosie O’Donnell, Perky Katie Couric, etc.
    The number of level-headed women on this planet wouldn’t fill the city of Petaluma. That notwithstanding, it doesn’t prevent one from indulging semi-erotic, b- movie fantasies.


  149. Thanks for today’s oil trade Phil, especially the way you laid out the reasoning for it as that allowed me to have the courage to make a good-sized bet.  Needless to say, I am thrilled with the outcome.  Am I greedy to keep half open overnight?  


  150. Flip – What dating site did you use SexyKlingonLady.com? 


  151. JRW, rainman – we are meeting in Vegas October 8th to 10th (Columbus Day Weekend). We have 11 people including Phil signed up. Hope you guys can make it.


  152.  Flip: " Including the current lady in residence."
    If that’s the lady in your residence does she mind your view of women? ;)


  153. Vegas / Nicha – I might be interested as well, but it would be somewhat last minute as I can’t predict where I will be early October at this stage!


  154. @ Phil, i did closed the QQQ Puts at the end with a whopping 55% gain (greed almost beat me on that one!) maybe you can scratch now the "shame on me" jajaja…as always very grateful for your trades / advice / teaching ! until tomorrow….


  155. rainman – this morning you asked about  charting a stock’s implied volatility. How do you use IV?


  156. Today’s levels.


  157. Can anybody explain to me how the ‘Beta Weighting’ function works in TOS? What does it really tell me and how do I interpret it?


  158. Deano (and others interested in Iron Condors) - I finished reading the book on condors that you recommended yesterday "Profiting with Iron Condor Options" by Benklifa and I have to say that this guys takes it down to the simplest level.  First, he makes a pretty good argument about selling premium which of course we already know but it’s good to hear confirmation. Second, he is pretty adamant that using fundamentals and TA will be more often wrong then right at our levels especially when you trade indices. Even if full-time managers can’t get it right more than 50%, what chances do we have (except Phil I guess!). So, as he says, trade the math and take what the market tells you. His main guidelines is to trade options with a delta of at most 10. For a condor, that would be the short legs. And then monitor them and don’t let them go over 25 or so! That’s pretty much what Income Trader does on his RUT trade. But where he differs is that he initiates his condors no closer than 49 days whereas most condor traders start 4 or 5 weeks before expiration. And he is happy to take 3 or 4% and close to the trade before expiration. As he says (and I can speak for experience) making adjustment on expiration week is close to impossible so why take the chance when you have the money in your pocket! His explanation on how he dealt with the market through the flash crash and adjusting positions while the market is going down 500 points is priceless. There is a chapter about day trading condors around earnings that is worth exploring in a paper trading account. It would be the non-greedy straddle play I guess! Once again, 3% here and 4% there equal early retirement! Thanks for the tip!


  159.  Deano: book referral
    thx, and what St J said


  160.  The selling continues after hours – S&P futures down another 5 points! This will not help Asia I think…


  161. But it will help Rustle


  162. Phil: Thanks!


  163.  Wow, Flips, I mean, wow!  Could you have made that pitch any fatter? I mean, gosh, I don’t even know where to begin having fun with this.  Oh, too late, STJ and Lincoln beat me to it!  Thanks guys, but I’ll take over from here.
    So are you saying that only insane, neurotic, jealous, paranoid, aggressive, and batshit crazy women were willing to date you?  Or was that a criteria selection on your part?   Also, I’m not sure how you came up with that representative collection of “hot” women to lump in with Michelle Bachman.  I don’t need the details, but I’m definitely wondering about the roles that Rosie O”Donnell and Barney Frank play in your b-movie fantasies.


  164. @Lincoln
    She freely admits to being neurotic.  She knows she has paranoid tendencies.  A while back, a woman who was very attractive, had a body to die,  for accused me of watching other women’s asses when they would walk by.  Couldn’t believe me when I told her hers was bodacious and I had no need to look at others. She wound up President of a very successful advertising agency.
    The tall, loverly,  woman next door has driven every workman, artisan, and handyman insane with her anality. 
    Generally I find that the more attractive and sensational looking, the greater degree of mental problems.  Look at Hollyood if you don’t believe me.  
    I would have to say that those of you who don’t think so, that  I’m right, are either women themselves or your dating experiences are very limited.
    Still think Michele is one very attractive woman especially for her age and life experiences.  That’s not to say she’d be able to lead the United States but no one can do that, the country is too divided, too big, disparate, and poly-cultural.  So why not just hire the best looking person for the job?  Hell, it worked for Clinton.


  165. @rdn4ever
    Don’t get your panties in a twist.  In referring to women who get ahead, make huge strides, I included Barney Frank, Maxine, Hillary Rodman, and other very unattractive women.  Their paranoia and hystrionics, their neurotic tendencies is what I was referring to. Not that they were beauties.  Though beauty does have more than its share of nutjobs. See Hollywood. Politics.
    And among the  women I’ve dated they were mostly all relatively level-headed but didn’t achieve anywhere near what the ones as the neurotics did,  who made what most would consider significant achievements in their professional lives.  (That does not mean that I exclude men who share the very same paranoid bent).
    Seems to be a trait that nutjobs are the only ones who are focused enough to do anything to gain as much power, prestige, and money as they can in one lifetime. Can’t do that without a large measure of mistrust in their nature.


  166. flip—Oh My—
    anyway getting back to Vegas
    Dates—Oct 8th 9th and 10th
    Hotel—pick your own
    Oct 8th—dinner and poker --Phil had some recommendations—Phil I am not sure what you mean by collect money for food and equipment--could we not all split the food bills as  we pay--what equipment exactly?
    Oct 9th--meeting at Cafe Moda--lvmoda has wifi
    Oct 10th--trading together at Cafe Moda or any other suggestions—Phil will you be there on Monday?--oct 10th
    as of today--the following are attending
    bioieselchris
    chaps
    escohen
    jakester
    lvmoda
    nicha
    pharm
    rdn4evr
    rustle123
    savi
    and of course Phil
    Is it definite now--can we book our tickets—have I missed anything? --need feedback
    Thanks
     
     
     


  167. Did we hedge for that:
    http://www.eschatonblog.com/2011/06/hopefully-just-wee-mistake.html
    The bright side is that tomorrow the Dow will be up by 12,000! And as one of the comments was saying "Dollar cost averaging saves the day!" 


  168. Flip – I have to say that I don’t often agree with you on politics (and less with your choice of women for that matter), but nevertheless, you make for some entertaining threads! That’s got to be worth something… 


  169.  stjeanluc & lincoln – glad you liked the book, lots of guys out there with books on options but I’ve overall learned much more from Phil – and it looks like the first week’s trade of FAS income will turn out well – looking forward to the first adjustment/roll tomorrow.
     
    Savi – I am likely for vegas – just need to work out one final schedule item to be sure. I look forward to meeting all for the first time. We need to draft Cap, JRW & Pete D as well. 


  170. stjeanluc
    Profiting with iron condor options Hi like to read it where can one get hold of this book Jus keep in mind I am living in a third world country (Mexico!!) thanks


  171. @SJL
    That’s because you think and Felipe thinks I am a republican, or a conservative. Read from one book,  I’m not and I don’t. Not even close to any political party.   I’m of the George Carlin school of politics, i.e. "THEY" (and that’s ALL the "Theys", democrat or republican) don’t give a F —- about you!"  No one I know that knows anything about politicians would deny that fact.  The rabid partisans like Phil, have an agenda.  So they never admit to the depth of the misery their own party causes.
    That being so, the daily anti-republican rants on this board are disingenous to say the least.  The democrats have an equal measure of guilt re: the financial mess this world is in.  The socialists in Europe have turned the continent into one monstrous bankruptcy.  And yet folks keep pointing to the cheap medical care in France, and the UK.  Well, yeah, it’s real cheap when you don’t pay for it and rack up trillions in debt, spending borrowed money on programs  that can no longer be paid for, and now are being reduced (Austerity)  that are causing upheaval in Spain, Greece, and others to come. 


  172. Books / Deano – I agree. Also, a lot of books don’t emphasize selling premium enough. Benklifa basically calculates that when you buy an option you have about  a12.5% chance of winning at best because you have to guess time, direction and distance (strike) correctly with at best a 50/50 chance each time (50% x 50% x 50% = 12.5%). When selling, you need only to be right about the time. Much better odds! The appeal of the ten bagger when buying is what brings in the gamblers! But talk to any of your friends about selling puts and they will think that you are the one that’s crazy. And yet, they have no problem paying 20% more for the same stock you sell a put against. I guess it’s good for us.
    I read some good options books by Jeff Augen who writes the foreword of that book. His books are very technical and he does also emphasize selling premium. He has some great ideas about exploiting volatility, but it’s a bit complex from where I stand right now. The concepts in Benklifa’s book are definitely easier to grasp.  


  173. Flip – Thanks for the clarification! It’s a shame that it has come to that, but many in the US or Europe now just pick the lesser of the 2 (or 10 in Europe) evils. For me, in this country, it would be the Democrats. But it doesn’t mean that they don’t screw up either (they have, see Clinton and the deregulation of the derivative’s markets),  it’s just that I think (and I think Phil feels the same) that Republicans (and you can’t call the bunch in congress conservatives anymore, read Fareed Zakaria here, Andrew Sullivan here, Bruce Bartlett here) will do more damage to this country in the long run and in most cases the middle class and the poors will end up with the shaft (see income growth in the last 10 years). And I don’t think George Carlin would disagree with that! In any case, good night and looking forward to more entertainment tomorrow.


  174. Yodi, condor book, you can download it from amazon.com using kindle’s pc ,kindle, or Mac app


  175. Book / Yodi – Mexico is no 3rd World Country. I was just in Cancun in April and there was luxurious hotels everywhere, great restaurants, expensive cars. I felt like I was in Miami Beach  :-) 
    If you can order from Amazon, here is the link - http://www.amazon.com/Profiting-Iron-Condor-Options-Strategies/dp/0137085516/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1308797666&sr=8-1
    or Barnes and Noble (cheaper) - http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/profiting-with-iron-condor-options-michael-benklifa/1029246965?ean=9780132616010&itm=1&usri=benklifa
    The book is available in Kindle and Nook format with applications you can install on your PC, iPhone, iPad (my setup) or Android. Get it in seconds… 


  176. stjeanluc
    Thanks I got the book


  177. Damn FLip – did Goober hack into your acct!? There ARE women on this site and what you wrote is fairly offensive. Calling Barney Frank a female? Gay does not equal female….. We’ll just chalk it up to you having a bad day but jeez man, you need to think before you type….. I do agree about Rosie being a crazy b!tch though… Palin is way prettier than Bach. However, I prefer women to have IQs higher than GWB and amazingly, both women fail in that regard ..


  178. Folks – I am out the rest of the week and next.  Keep things in check, and I will try to check in now and then…..


  179.  Nicha / beta weighting
    You know that each of you positions in portfolio has own delta, but you can’t just sum them up because all of them move differently
    but all stocks has own beta which shows how they move historicly compair to index
    so TOS using individual betas to convert each delta to delta of index
    and this way you can compare apple to apple and see how bullish / bearish your portfolio
    your total beta weighting delta shows how much your portfolio make / loss in $$ with move 1 point of index


  180. Pharm enjoy your vacation!


  181.  Jroms right, Flip, you are funny but your comments are on the wrong side of misogynistic.  As for the truth of them, everyone has their view.  I hope more people laughed than felt bad.  
     
    Your notion that abnormal levels of achievement are most often attained by abnormal people is strikingly original, however. :)


  182.  stjeanluc / book
    tried to download NOOK app for iphone but it is available only for US users ( I’m canadian)
    and because I"m out of country for long to get hardcopy is out of options
    could somebody email me as an attachment NOOK app for iphone?
    my e-mail: tchayipov@gmail.com


  183. tchay -  I sent it to your gmail.   Surprised you couldn’t get it from Itunes…


  184. @SJL
    Screwing up is an honest mistake.  What politicians do is not screwing up, be they democrat or republican. What they do is intentional.  The fact that they can trade on inside information is not a screwup.  That is intentional and harms every single person invested in any security.  The fact that they don’t do what needs done at the time it needs doing and wait unti it proves to be advantageous to their re-election like theBamster just did with his phony announcement about troop withdrawals ( the rest to come in 2014, if you believe it) is not a screwup.


  185. Savi/Vegas — on the equipment thing, I believe last time we worked on setting this up, Phil wanted an overhead projector for the meeting. No problem for the hotels, but we will need to work on it for La Moda, I presume.


  186.  

     

    Men are not complex as this shows!!  For the exquisitely sensitive on this board:

     

     

    ——--
    #wmQuoteWrapper {font-size:10pt;font-family:arial, sans-serif;background-color:#ffffff;color:black;}
    #wmQuoteWrapper p {margin:0px;}

    Her Diary:   Tonight, I thought my husband was acting strangely. He was

    at the marina most of the afternoon, but we had made plans to meet at a

    nice restaurant for dinner.

    I was shopping  all day long,

    so I thought he was upset at the fact that I was a bit late, but he

    made no comment on it. Conversation wasn’t flowing, so I suggested that

    we go somewhere quiet so we could talk. He agreed, but he didn’t say

    much. I asked him what was wrong; He said, ‘Nothing.’ I asked him if it

    was my fault that he was upset. He said he wasn’t upset, that it had

    nothing to do with me, and not to worry about it.

    On the way home, I

    told him that I loved him.  He smiled slightly, and kept driving. I

    can’t explain his behavior I don’t know why he didn’t say, ‘I love you,

    too.’ When we got home, I felt as if I had lost him completely, as if he

    wanted nothing to do with me anymore. He just sat there quietly, and

    watched TV. He continued to seem distant and absent. Finally, with

    silence all around us, I decided to go to bed. About 15 minutes later,

    he came to bed. But I still felt that he was distracted, and his

    thoughts were somewhere else. He fell asleep – I cried. I don’t know

    what to do. I’m almost sure that his thoughts are with someone else.  My

    life is a disaster.

    His Diary:   Boat wouldn’t start, can’t figure out why.

     


  187. Echo- since he lives there and we are dining at his establishment maybe Lv moda could be the POC for getting the projector? Would that be ok Lv?


  188. LOL!  Good stuff guys!  Sorry Gals!!


  189. why would you guys need the projector?  just connect a laptop to a big screen TV.
    checked out that moda website.  great mix of horny Filipino nannies and young hookers.  I think once that is out many more might come.


  190. Good morning!

    Euro and Pound are tanking and, for a change, no one is running to the Yen (or maybe the BOJ is dumping Euros, who knows..).  Anyway, the upshot is the Dollar is up to 75.85 and oil is back to $93 (ka-ching on yesterday’s SCO spread!) and not looking healthy there and even gold is down $20 at $1,539.  

    In other "stuff" – Gasoline is $2.91, Nat gas is $4.32, silver $36 on the button and copper $4.04 (DANGER!).  Copper below $4 is not a sign of a healthy global economy so we could begin to see some major index failures led by commodity pushers if they fail there.  $92.50 should hang tough on oil – let that be a benchmark.  

    Amazingly, this is not news to anyone who reads PSW but it seems to be shocking half the World that the Fed downgraded their outlook on the US economy and that Greece may not really be fixed.  As I often say, you just can’t underestimate the stupidity of investors (or our elected officials).  Barry summed that up nicely with this morning’s cartoon:

    We are going to be in fantastic shape with our hedges kicking in, the only issue is whether or not to take the money and run as we re-test our lows but we’ll play that by ear during Member Chat if we get that low.  Keep in mind that nothing new has happened, this is just a realization of the conditions that we thought were obvious and we LOVE it when FACTS finally get priced in – because it gives us a good place to buy.  I think it’s a bit early for the major correction we expected after July 4th but this is why I got nervous on Tuesday morning and called for cashing out into the rally.  

    If nothing else, this is a great chart lesson on what happens when we fail our bounce lines – that’s why we do not react to the "weak bounces" that we expect to get off the 5% rule (in this case, a 2.5% bounce after a 10% drop) and why I am such a pain in the ass about not getting bullish until we make at least 3 of 5 of our levels:

    Along the same lines – we have a LONG way to go before I consider this a proper breakdown, which is why we took the relatively short-term hedges – we were playing against a short-term drop, as opposed to the longer-term hedges we took last week to hedge against a bigger market collapse.  In today’s case, if those 2.5% lines hold up despite the Dollar flying back to test 76 (which is going to be tough to break) – it will be back to our bullish premise for next week and we’ll find a few long plays (maybe some June 30th index calls).  

    OK – time for me to go to work – I’ll try to get a situational update out at the bell for Members.  


  191. Flip- why do I get the feeling your membership is about to expire and for whatever reason ( you cant handle Phil’s liberal rants even though you’re an ‘independent’ or maybe you’ve grown tired of making money?) decided to not renew.now you’re saying random shtuff!


  192. @jromeha
    I posted the very answers to your questions but for whatever reason the powers that be have seen fit to not publish them.
    You’ll have to ask them about that.
    As a perfect example of neurotic tendencies, I point to your post.  You write i can’t handle his liberal rants, ask if I’m tired of making money, not renewing, and saying random stuff.  None of what you write is true nor did anything I write indicate it.
    Reponding to his rants, or remarking about the bias in them is not ‘not handling them’, if I were tired of making money I’d quit, your quotations around independent indicate you don’t believe me when I say that I don’t have anhy respect for either democrat or republican politicians, and nothing I’ve posted was random but in response to any post responding to mine.
    So I really have no idea where you are coming from.


  193. I am loving the ignore button!  I have a flips-free chat to read though…

    I do understand someone’s point about how it would be good if the ignore button also ignored the responses to the person you’re ignoring, though!  8-)

    Vegas/Savi – I’m not bringing A/V equipment out there – we’ll need a minimum of 3 computers with projectors (and something to project them on) with high-speed web access for streaming data and charts.  If I’m going to stay Monday and work from Vegas (not sure that I will yet) then 3 screens is a vacation set-up for me – not really adequate.  Also, I assumed if we’re going to have an all-day seminar you’d want to get food as well as the fact that no deposits = no real commitment so if you are asking me to take a long weekend and leave my family and fly to Vegas and there ends up being 3 people there – I’ll be pretty pissed!   

    Dow 0/StJ – Hopefully not an omen!  

    OK, gotta work now – if I missed anything urgent, please repost in today’s chat (not you Flips!).  


  194. Phil,
      Can you re-post your short- and long-term disaster hedges in one place as a review. I looked for them but am having difficulty finding them. Thanks.


  195. …why do I get the feeling that today is going to be one of those days where we need to expect the unexpected?


  196. @Felipe
    What would also be good is a way to distill your wisdom in the markets from your liberal rants.


  197. Oil – So much for $92.50 this morning… Full retreat in the NYMEX!
    I’ll repost later, but here are the lines now:
    R3 – 97.93
    R2 – 96.81
    R1 – 95.47
    PP – 94.35
    S1 – 93
    S2 – 91.89 (we are here now)
    S3 – 90.55 


  198. IEA emergency press conference at 9? uhoh