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Friday, January 30, 2026

Here We Are Again! (Claims)

Courtesy of Karl Denninger, The Market Ticker

Yuck…

In the week ending July 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 418,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 408,000. The 4-week moving average was 421,250, a decrease of 2,750 from the previous week’s revised average of 424,000.

Jobs?  What jobs?  Up, still over 400,000, adjusted (again.)

Worse, the roll-off from extended programs continues:

Given the continued levitation over 400k on initial claims I do not believe these people are finding jobs – rather, I believe they are simply rolling off the claims rolls.

This is not going end well. 

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