Courtesy of Doug Short.
The S&P 500 has now closed the books on September, historically the weakest month of the year, with another grim statistic. The index was down 2.50% for the day and 7.18% for the month.
Among the many news items of the day, the two that especially resonate are the conflicting ECRI recession call and Warren Buffett’s assurances on CNBC that a recession is “very, very unlikely.”
Year-to-date the index is in the red at -10.04%, which is 17.03% below the interim high set on April 29.
From an intermediate perspective, the index is 67.2% above the March 2009 closing low and 27.7% below the nominal all-time high of October 2007.
Below are two charts of the index, with and without the 50 and 200-day moving averages.
For a better sense of how these declines figure into a larger historical context, here’s a long-term view of secular bull and bear markets in the S&P Composite since 1871.
For a bit of international flavor, here’s a chart series that includes an overlay of the S&P 500, the Dow Crash of 1929 and Great Depression, and the so-called L-shaped “recovery” of the Nikkei 225. I update these weekly.
These charts are not intended as a forecast but rather as a way to study the current market in relation to historic market cycles.
