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Black Friday Follies – Once More unto the Breach, Dear Friends

 

When Black Friday comes
I'm gonna dig myself a hole
Gonna lay down in it 'til
I satisfy my soul – Seely Dan 

Shop or we'll drop!  That's the message from the markets to consumers this morning as it's do or die (literally) for the Retail Sector this weekend against a background of a collapsing Euro-Zone and – get this –  the S&P warning that Japan now, is in danger of losing it's AA minus credit rating.

S&P’s Takahira Ogawa says the agency is getting closer to downgrading Japan’s AA- rating, due to its finances "getting worse and worse every day, every second." Ogawa’s remarks follow an IMF warning that Japan is at risk of a "sudden spike" in bond yields that could make its debt unsustainable.

JAPAN???  But we're not done freaking out about Europe yet!  I guess this may be a sign that the EU is bottoming though as Fitch hit us with a downgrade of Portugal to JUNK yesterday and Moody's did the same to Hungary.  Both of those countries also have a "negative outlook," indicating junk is just too good for them.  Small wonder then, that the Dollar has spiked up to 79.75 this morning (up 1%) pushing our Futures, of course, down 1%.  

Even oil is taking a hit now – at $95.14 but we'll play for the bounce on (/CL) on the $95 line with very tight stops below it as that SHOULD have a bit of support into the weekend.  Gasoline (/RB) can also be re-longed (we did this on Wednesday) off the $2.50 line – the last run took us back to $2.55 and, at $420 per penny per contract – that put a lot of turkeys on the table for Thanksgiving!  

The Euro itself is hitting the $1.3225 line but the Pound is hanging tough at $1.55 as not joining the EU may have been the best decision England has made this century (well, it's been a pretty bad century for the British Empire).  While tempting to go long – we're in a bit of a full-blown panic here and we're going to exercise patience (see yesterday's post) as Monday could go big in either direction although, as I said in our early morning Alert to Members, I think Fundamentally, they markets have suffered enough and it may be time to do a little bottom-fishing but it would be nice to get a VIX closer to 40 first

Echoing my comments to Members this morning, Dutch Finance Minister, Jan Kees de Jager, endorses greater intervention by the ECB "as a last resort" following similar comments out of Finland.  Attitudes about ECB action in the Netherlands and Finland are considered similar to those of the Germans, so the comments could be of some significance.  Clearly we are reaching the end game as bond yields in Spain and Italy break 7%.  Multiply Italy's $3.5Tn debt by 7% compounded over 10 years and you get $6.8Tn – run up some more debt underneath it and you get what economist call FUBAR.  

So, are we heading, globally, towards 7% borrowing rates for all countries as the reality of our unsustainable debt loads hits the bond markets, causing our current global $60Tn debt to sell to over $120Tn this decade or – will something else happen?  If you answered:  B) Something else, then you can crawl out of your bomb shelter and buy some stocks because IT'S SILLY to believe that this will continue.  It won't continue because it can't continue and I stand by my often-repeated premise that only Goblal Hyper-Inflation will get us out of this.

Rates WILL go higher – they have to.  At a certain point, there's simply not enough money to lend to cover everyone's debt rollovers.  The only way for countries to cover their debts, then, is to either A) Find more people to lend it to them (possibly by raising rates to attract more cash) or B) Print more money.  A is hard, because we've kind of already tapped out all the lenders and now we can only take money out of stocks or commodities but then we will exhaust those as well (for a great chart of ALL THE MONEY IN THE WORLD – click here) and then it doesn't matter how much interest you offer – all you are doing is competing for money that someone else needs to borrow and clearly, if one Nation collapses, we're all screwed so what good does it do us to offer 8% when Europe offers 7% if all we accomplish is bankrupting Europe?

That leaves B – PRINT MORE MONEY – and we're already doing that, of course, but now we have to give some to the poor people as well, through wage increases and stimulus, to kick-start the flow of money – which will make more money available for our Government to borrow.    

THAT's my bullish premise – it's very simple, no one is going to let the World end in the end – our leaders will do what they have to do to keep things going and what they have to do is lead us down the path to hyper-inflation, which will allow all debts to be paid – albeit with money that is worth less (worthless) but we avoid all the messiness of default and we placate the masses by handing out raises and bonuses that they'd better spend fast or it will melt and banks will pay a reasonable rate of return for money saved so old people can once again live off their savings (ie T-Bills) and, of course, the price of homes can once again shoot up, as they did in the 70's and the 00s to make our nation's 100M homeowners feel rich again as the homes they bought for $300,000 sell for $1M and they pay off all their debts and have $500,000 to spare, which they put in the bank at 7% and get a $35,000 annual income to supplement their dwindling Social Security payments.  

Is it a perfect solution?  No, of course not, but it beats the alternative and that alternative starts with the fact that the bottom 150M people in this country, which include 15M children who live in poverty and 8M children in families that lost their homes – realizing that the top 400 people in this country – not the 1% (3M) but the top 400 individuals – have more money than all 150M of the bottom 50% put together!  Despite the best efforts to crush the Occupy Movement – the huddled masses are starting to wake up to the fact that they don't have to take this anymore and, when they do – heads will roll!  

 


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  1. Black Gold Lines

    R3 – 98.33
    R2 – 97.82
    R1 – 97.23
    PP – 96.72
    S1 – 96.13
    S2 – 95.62
    S1 – 95.03

    Yesterday high and low – 97.31 /96.21

    Breakout lines – 99.08 / 93.33

    Well, as predicted by Phil, oil is a 95 now. Still unaffordable, but better than 100! 


  2. As a quick aside, I have to say that this Black Friday shopping starting at midnight on Friday morning or even sooner is just getting out of hand. I never shop on Black Friday as I don’t like crowds in my stores, but I am not sure what is there to be gained by asking employees to cut short one of the oldest holidays to show up in the middle of the night to work! I know it’s an American tradition to shop on Black Friday. But Thanksgiving is an even older tradition. There I feel better! 


  3. It has been a tough week and we might break the average…

    http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/11/23/worst-thanksgiving-week-ever.html

     


  4. StJ/Thgvng

    Could not agree more. The whole thing is just hype promoted by retail and CNN. As I write CNN is reporting live from Macey’s on it’s U S feed while BBC and Al Jazeera are in Egypt.


  5. That’s an ugly chart – Italian Yield Curve edition:

    http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/11/25/764581/italian-bond-watchalert/

    Clearly not sustainable! 


  6. Merkel/Sarkozy/Monti….

    Merkel, Sarkoxy and Monti

    After you, no after you…. 


  7. StJ/Thnksgvg

    However remember that the CEOs of corps will supposedly be prosecuted if they do not do everything that is legal to maximize profits, no matter how destructive to people’s lives. However as a hospital employee I always worked both days of Thanksgiving and nearly always on Xmas too.


  8. Thanksgiving / Jmm – I understand that "emergency" services will always come out on the short end… As far as CEO’s are concerned, shopping for Thanksgiving used to start much later and companies were doing fine! Oh well… 


  9. Ah, good morning.  Yes, I see we are transitioning from SNAFU to FUBAR, always a nasty portent.  Your grasshoppers await your flashing "Buy" signal, Maestro!!   


  10. Wow, come back from a little RnR and lookie what the cat brought back……PP for today


  11. market is going to hit some extraordinary oversold extremes on the opening today – extremes similar to what we saw in early October…. S&P looks to open about 60 points below its 10 day Exponential Moving Average.  A 30 point spread is considered oversold – though we’ve lately seen wider spreads…. bollinger bands are now quite wide… this is the 3rd consecutive day the S&P has traded below the lower band…. move back inside th band will generate a buy signal….obviously can’t say for sure when stocks will bounce….when they finally do…. its going to be a whopper.

     


  12. From Dr. John Faessel:
     
    Gulp!
     
      EuroLand Bond Yields (and DANGER) Rise to Unsustainable Levels
    Italy 10-year bond yield – 7.29%
    Spanish 10-year bond yield – 6.66%
     
    The McClellan Oscillator is Hyper OVERSOLD at minus 326
     
    On Wednesday (a truly horrible market day) the stock market again put in lower lows on decreased and below average volume. It was the 9th consecutive day of lower highs. Importantly, the McClellan Oscillator (my favorite measure of overboughtness or oversoldness) posted a lower and Oversold minus 326 that was the second lowest “pattern” registration of the year. It was a minus 236 on Tuesday. While not at the absolute low yet of this down-leg this move is one the top ten lowest readings ever and all came at major bottoms. Also the TICK (ultra short term oversoldness metric) was posted a deep (interday) oversold readings or a minus 1327. The McClellan posted its lowest reading EVER at minus 438 on August 8th.
     
    There is no support anywhere close and the S&P futures are now off 3 points so we will add to the extreme oversoldness early session. That said, the severe deep McClellan read suggests that we should be buying today. Perhaps we add more to the plunge on Monday, but we are about at what should be a decent trading-turn -around zone and a market bounce that could stick. Watch for deep minus readings of the TICK in the minus 1200s or more.
     
    It’s a given that we will have to get worse before it gets better and if there’s any
    good news it’s that as the Euro debt crisis worsens and the Euro / Brussels political leaders surrender in toto to the ultimate solution of 100% effective control by Germany / Merkel, the closer we get to some semblance of quiet in the markets. Unfortunately this may take a near death (or death for many) experience. The lender of last resort rules… and that’s Germany.
     
    As Olli Rehn, European Economic and Monetary Affairs commissioner
    mentions above in the Quote of the Day, One simply cannot build a growth strategy on accumulating more debt, when the capacity to service the current debt is questioned by the markets” This “questioning” is in the form of the “bond vigilantes” selling / shorting the bonds of the weak southern European debt ridden countries, as best seen by the Italian 10-year bond that at this writing is now at yield of 7.29%. That’s above the sustainable rate that demographically and “philosophically” challenged Italy can service. The rest of the PIIGS are in the same boat…
     
    The overriding predicament is that the French banks (that are now off about 60% from their recent highs) is that the French banks hold about 480 billion Euros worth of Italian bonds, not to mention 150 billion Euros worth of Greek bonds. So get the picture, it’s a horror show! There is just NO solution that will put humpty dumpty back together again… And Uncle Sam is in the same boat and the man in the street is just beginning to figure out that the forever spending and borrowing politicians got us into this mess. Is it too late? Stay tuned….
     
    Short positions remain massive.
     
    The (SPX) closed yesterday at 1161.79
     
    S&P 500 (SPX) support at the August 8th lows is at 1101.
    Support at the October 4th lows is at 1074.
     
    Short term price resistance is at S&P 500 (SPX) 1164 then at 1171
    The 50- moving average "now" resistance is at (SPX) 1207.
    Next level up price resistance in the (SPX) is at 1222, then at 1232.
    The 200-day moving average resistance is at 1268.
    Formidable price resistance at the top- tick of the near four month old consolidation is at 1292 then at 1277.
     
    Wednesday’s key indicators and metrics:
     
    ·           McClellan Oscillator is hyper OVERSOLD @ MINUS 326  
     


  13.  


  14.  


  15.  


  16. Good morning!  

    Nice stick into the open on a relatively small drop in the Dollar, back to 79.67.  

    As I said, we’re now pushing our luck Globally, as to how low we can go before running into a non-recoverable event so it is certainly time to act through whatever means our Governments have at their disposal.  That’s why I’ve been unable to get enthusiastically bearish – it just doesn’t make sense.  

    So, some quick bullish ideas before the opportunity possibly slips but I caution that caution is still the way to go through the weekend:

    • FAS Dec $48/55 bull call spread at $3, selling the $40 puts for $2.40 for net .60 on the $7 spread.  5 in the WCP on that one. 
    • FXE Dec $132/135 bull call spread at $1.20, selling the $129 puts for $1.10 for net .10 on the $3 spread. 
    • JPM Jan $25 puts can be sold for $1.20 
    • AA 2013 $7.50 puts can be sold for $1.28.
    • VLO June $17 puts can be sold for $2.05

    Just like we watched with amusement while things fell earlier this week, we should take a move up just as lightly until we cross back over our Must Hold Lines – to some extent, we have selling fatigue driving this move – keep in mind my bullish discussion on hyperinflation is more of a macro thing – we won’t miss much by waiting a bit.  

    At the open: Dow -0.06% to 11251. S&P -0.14% to 1160. Nasdaq -0.37% to 2159.
    Treasurys: 30-year -0.07%. 10-yr -0.01%. 5-yr +0.03%.
    Commodities: Crude -0.17% to $96. Gold -1.06% to $1680.05.
    Currencies: Euro -0.72% vs. dollar. Yen +0.69%. Pound +0.05%.  

    Market preview: S&P futures -0.5%, after a weak Italian bond auction helps send Euro sovereign debt yields even higher. Retail names could see volatility today, as the market pays heed to initial Black Friday data. AT&T is lower premarket, as investors brace for the unraveling of the T-Mobile deal. Gold is seeing selling pressure, down 1.2%


  17. rustle / Dr. John — Can I ask where you’re getting Dr. John’s updates? I’d like to subscribe.


  18. My daughter is working part-time in a well-known store at a local mall and she is telling me that sales are brisk! And the mall is packed!


  19. Nice, not only is pepper spray a vegetable it’s now the choice equipment for "competitive shopping".


  20. @rainman
    I get sent to me via my brother who gets them free.  They are very expensive.  He owns hedgeco.net so he gets a lot of perks. 


  21. got a nice entry point on FAS at 48.80 at open and also wrote Dec 2nd 46 puts for 1.95 on FAS.  Also bought some DIA 113.75 calls.  Obviously hoping for a bounce.  I want a Friday in the black today.  Screw saving $20 on a hard drive, this is more fun and more lucrative.


  22. Wheeee!  Congrats to all the oil bulls (how often do we say that?) – $96.50 is the stop-out now.  

    Gasoline died at $2.52 but not terrible for an hour’s work…

    Retail Slaves/StJ – It’s ridiculous.  Bergen County in North Jersey has "blue laws" which does not allow retail businesses to be open on Sundays and IT’S SO NICE!  A day when people don’t shop and all the kids who work retail have the same day off and can have actual semblances of lives – it’s great.  And, to top it off, the Garden State Plaza in Bergen County is one of the highest-grossing malls in America, despite the one-day disadvantage. 

    Dollar holding tough at 79.50 so far.  

    CEOs/JMM – That’s why you need to pass laws to reign in Corporate Greed.  By not putting a lid on it, you may as well just hand the Government over to Corporations, because that’s the end-game, isn’t it?  That’s one thing 90% tax brackets accomplish – at a certain point, it’s just not worth trying to make more money so you do things to maintain your market share instead like putting mints on you customers’ pillows or giving them more legroom in coach, etc – rather than being incentified to squeeze every last dime out of your customers while coming up with ways to wreck your competitors so you can have more.  We no longer have the concept of "enough" in our society.  

    Whopper/Angel – Well I hope so but all we have so far is a weak bounce on the Dollar being rejected at 80, as we expected.  Since that would be a 5% run – we’re going to look for a 1% pullback to 78.25 and then we’ll see what’s up but that’s all this is – a 1% bounce SHOULD be happening here – it don’t mean a thing without follow-through.

    FAS Money/StJ – Funny how fast that changes, down to $4.20 on the short $55 puts already.  I think just roll it to whatever is even next week and see how it goes (currently next week $52 puts are $3.80 so hopefully an even roll can be had there).

    IWM Money/StJ – We should take out the TZA put, now .95 and sell a TNA Dec $30 put for $1.90 – I think it’s too early to sell calls.  


  23. FAS Money / Phil – OK, we’ll wait a bit to see if we can roll to the 52 next week. Would you roll to the 53 if the 52 are not even? 


  24.  CHK can’t catch a break — what’s up with that?  Otherwise, trading what I see, all good.  Took off 1/2 the Euro short position at a profit at the open,  the rest holding steady.


  25. 10:00 AM On the hour: Dow +0.56%. 10-yr -0.18%. Euro -0.56% vs. dollar. Crude +0.75% to $96.89. Gold -0.49% to $1689.75.

    Likely unable to raise capital the old-fashioned way – issuing shares and shedding assets – European banks are set to indulge in some fancy footwork. Known as "R.W.A. optimization," the process involves altering the risk-weighting on existing assets to allow less capital to be held against them.

    Eurozone finmins are likely to approve Greece’s next €8B tranche of emergency loans after the recalcitrant Antonis Samaras, head of the main right-wing party, appears to have caved in to an EU-IMF demand and provided written commitment to support the goals of reform. It means that Greece will again avoid a default, for now. 

    Bank of Ireland (IRE) is near a sale of its Burdale Finance unit, a $1.1B unit that extends loans secured against assets in the U.K. and U.S., to Wells Fargo (WFC). The deal, which would be Wells Fargo’s third scoop this year on assets of Irish banks, may be completed by year-end. IRE +1.2%, WFC +0.3% premarket.

    Crude oil futures catch a tailwind off the move higher in equities this morning, pushing to a session high near $97 a barrel and taking energy shares along for the ride: Schlumberger (SLB +1.6%), ExxonMobil (XOM +0.7%), BP (BP +0.7%), Marathon Oil (MRO +0.7%). 

    Shares of Chevron (CVX +0.2%) tick higher this morning after reporting that it wasn’t downgraded from its Class A status as an operator in Brazil, which means the driller can continue to operate its existing fields. A downgrade had been suspected as a result of a spill at the company’s Frade oil field. 

    Asian DRAM manufacturers Powerchip and ProMOS are reportedly responding to weak demand and crashing prices by putting plants up for sale; foundries TSM and UMC are said to be among the prospective buyers. Production cuts are buoying DRAM spot prices for the time being, though it remains to be seen how long this lasts, given weak PC DRAM consumption trends. [

    The rollout of Intel’s (INTC) eagerly-anticipated "Romley" Xeon server chips will be pushed back to March, according to DigiTimes, due to problems related to pairing the chips with serial-attached SCSI (SAS) hard drives. The delay could bolster the standing of AMD‘s "Bulldozer" Opteron server chips, while proving a headache for analog chipmakers IPHI and VLTR.

    Did we mention CHINA?!?  Gap (GPS), which just opened its first flagship store in Hong Kong, says it has big plans for the Chinese market. The apparel retailer plans to triple its Chinese store count in fiscal 2012, to 45, as it looks to the Middle Kingdom to offset soft U.S. demand.


  26. IWM Money

    Buying back the TZA Dec 30 Put (now $0.97).
    Selling 1 TNA Dec 30 Put (now 1.90)


  27. FAS/StJ – Yes, no sense in putting more money into it at the moment.  


  28.  


  29. Looks like the best Black Friday sale for me was FAS at the open and loving the calls.  Keep running baby.



  30.  OK, this is getting a lot more boring than I expected.  Anyone want to make side bets on which hemisphere Phobos-Grunt crash lands?  I expect that having it take out the Kremlin is too much to ask.


  31. Phobos / Zero – How about calculating the odds of it falling on my house? 


  32.  Die DXY!!!!


  33. FXlive
    German, Dutch and Finnish fin mins will make a statement at 16:15 GMT


  34. Stj:  I didn’t know you were Russian.  But then all those eurowimps are commies. :)


  35. Phil
    how do you recommend playing SCO now wih oil at $97.30? I have the Dec 2011 $40/46 BCS open. Thanks 


  36. Zero – Well, we don’t know for sure it will come down over Russia? 

    Anything east of the Pennsylvania is commie land it seems! 


  37. European spreads are down, but only because German Bunds rates are up…

    http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/11/25/european-spreads-down-but-not-the-right-way.html

     


  38. I guess safe for now in the US:

    http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/11/25/global-sovereign-credit-default-swap-prices.html

    Funny that we lost our AAA rating and our CDS are the cheapest of the G7! FU Moody! 


  39.  Could we have a stick today???


  40. FAS/Rustle – Good point, happy to miss the "sale" on stuff when we can make money hand over fist on market plays.  

    Culture of tax evasion/StJ – You could do the same article about the US.  Unreported income alone in the US is $2Tn and that’s besides all the BS corporations play with their books to hide earnings and all the tax dodges the top 1% enjoy – yet you will see no Conservative outrage written about the US – only foreigners who don’t pay taxes are lazy and stupid….

    Phobos/ZZ – I don’t think they’ve totally given up yet.  I think Mars is out of the question but if they can reboot it, they can still send it to an asteroid or something to get samples.  Since it’s still full of fuel, if it does fall back to earth it will likely blow up into very small and very vaporizable pieces on re-entry. 

    SCO/Crussell – I still think oil can’t sustain $97.50.  We expected this weekend to be their last hurrah.  

    Dollar back over 78.60 – not good for "rally", which was actually just a bounce.  Good time to make sure you are well-hedged for disaster and I still do like shorting oil as it’s held up relatively well so far. 

    CDS/StJ – It’s all relative.  Makes no sense we should rank #2 but sentiment keeps us looking good, despite reality.  

    11:00 AM On the hour: Dow +0.63%. 10-yr -0.11%. Euro -0.59% vs. dollar. Crude +0.75% to $96.89. Gold -0.25% to $1693.75.

    Here’s an encouraging early piece of holiday shopping news: IBM’s Coremetrics retail data indicates online Thanksgiving sales were up 39% Y/Y, as consumers scooped up major electronics and apparel promotions. It’s added that the share of consumers using a mobile device to make a purchase rose to 11.09%, from 4.25% in the year-ago period. (comScore forecast)

    Piper Jaffray says Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF -0.3%) and American Eagle Outfitters (AEO +0.3%) are set to do brisk Black Friday business as the teen apparel retailers lead the shopping charge with lines up to 1000 shoppers long at stores waiting for doors to open. 

    In what might be further proof of the devastating impact tablets have had on the netbook market, a leaked e-mail suggests Samsung (SSNLF.PK) will discontinue netbook production in Q1 2012, and instead focus on building "ultraportables" and ultrabooks. Weak netbook demand has taken a heavy toll on Acer (ASIYF.PK), and has led to plunging sales of Intel’s (INTC) Atom processors. 

    About 1,000 workers at a Chinese plant owned by Taiwan’s Jingyuan Computer, which supplies components for Apple and IBM, have gone on strike to protest long working hours. Labor unrest and rising wages have become serious concerns for Western electronics makers relying on Chinese manufacturing – a spate of suicides at a Foxconn facility last year proved a major PR black eye for Apple. 


  41. Default risk/STJ – b/c we can print, and the US consumer remains ‘somewhat’ good to go.  We may not be paying our mortgages, but we still buy stuff .  I am still in the camp that the 10 yr goes to 1% next year.

     

    SPX put spreads are rockin’ and I will hold.  I will buy some upside on companies I like that generate cash (healthcare and oil), including RIG, MRK, BMY, BP, etc.  OH, and CRIS is 3.13.  Buying another round – which almost eclipses my PLX position.


  42. Japanese Nikkei now UNDER tsunami and nuclear disaster levels.  Trading around 2009 Lehman shock levels.   I am assuming this is all a result of the huge Olympus scandal that I guess has caused every Japanese company to fall under suspicion of funny-business. 
     
    Is any country’s stocks more unloved than Japan?  The third largest economy in the world and a design, engineering, technological powerhouse nation? 
     
    Value investors where art thou?  As for me, I am loving how Phil’s TM trade is working for me.


  43. These guys love the constitution, First Amendment and all… Except when it applies to others of course!

    http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/11/brownback_complaint_about_student_tweet_lands_kansas_teenager_in_principals_office.php

    Hypocrits… 


  44.  Macroman posits the gilt/Bund spread as the new risk on / risk off metric.


  45.   Phobos-Grunt:  Damn, Phil, you’re just too literal.  Yeah, it will vaporize, give the general quality of Russian manufacture.  What kind of fairy tales do you tell your kids: "Once upon a time, there was a honest hedge fund manager…"


  46. Taxes / Phil – They actually measured our shadow economy at 7% which is not something to sneeze at. Even a number in between yours and theirs at 10% of a $15 trillion economy could go a long way to solve our little deficit problem. And like you said, a fair share of the sacrifices….

    As far as the CDS are concerned, I think that they mostly reflect the dangerous situation for the euro at the moment. I believe that an independent Germany would have lower CDS on its own. But then again, they profited nicely from the euro so who knows!


  47. I entered an OIH spread for Jan12 – long 94.1 calls, short 119.1 calls. It appears that OIH might well wind up in the middle somewhere, and I’m never quite sure what to do with the long calls that have value. Not to worry this time, because OIH is going to delist on Dec20. It is unclear what happens to open option positions. I suppose I have to pull this spread apart can close each piece separately?


  48. Pharmboy,
    Your comment on YMI, please.


  49.  Europe closing nicely?


  50. Euro weakening into their close..not good


  51. neet – like them.  Own them.  Will add to them if they fail 1.20.  Target is like VVUS.  Have you seen their price lately?


  52.  AAPL weakening?


  53. Dow volume 32M at 11:20 – I thought we were open today?  

    Stick/Jabob – At this volume level, you can make your own stick by buying about 10,000 SPY calls at market into the close. 

    Japan/Kinki – Just too many scandals/disasters/changes in Government for the market to bear.  Not when they have India, Australia, China and the US as alternative investments.  Probably other good companies to buy in Japan but TM is one I know best so they are the one I like to buy when out of favor.  

    Brownback/StJ – Yep, they (all Reps) are psychotic about controlling the media, even social media.  It’s so 1984 it would be funny if 1984 wasn’t such a tragic novel although I understand Dick Cheney called it a "feel-good story about keeping thought terrorists in their place".  

    Fairy Tales/ZZ – Funny you should say that as the topic last night was which religion is best for my oldest, who tried church with her boyfriend this year and didn’t like it (or him) in the end.  After much discussion, we decided she should explore Shinto, as it seems to be most in-line with her general beliefs at the moment.  

    CDS/StJ – Our CDS rates are kept artificially low as no one would pay them otherwise.  Don’t forget how much more money is kept in Dollars vs. other currencies so each tick of CDS costs an aggregate huge amount of money and, again, there is not an infinite supply.   

    The leaders of the euro zone’s three largest economies pledged Thursday to propose modifications to European Union treaties that would aim to further integrate economic policy. German Chancellor Angela Merkel met with French President Nicolas Sarkozy and newly-appointed Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti. Ms. Merkel said the treaty changes were crucial steps toward building a fiscal union and restoring investor confidence.

    "Yesterday’s meeting didn’t end in tears," said Brian Jacobsen, chief portfolio strategist at Wells Fargo Funds Management. "There weren’t really any negative headlines. And not having negative news is good news for this market…Potential treaty changes show real substantial and structural change."

    Europe with a big stick close.  France and Germany up 1.5%, FTSE up 0.6%.

    79.70 on Dollar continues to drag us back down though…

    In spite of the bad news from Italy, major U.K. banks are rallying strongly today, perhaps bolstered by Lloyd’s (LYG +6.7%) deal on Thursday to sell $1.75B in distressed loan assets. RBS +9.3%. BCS +5.4%. Their American counterparts aren’t doing too badly either. GS +2.1%. MS +2.8%. BAC +2.4%. C +2.6%. WFC +1.9%. [

    Shipping activity between China and Europe is plunging, leading rates to fall 35%, and one key index of Chinese containerized freight traffic to drop 12% YTD. Container shippers are responding by rapidly slashing capacity, while a Chinese transportation vice minister feels compelled to warn against "protectionism or unilateral action."  

    Piper’s Black Friday observations lead it to think Express (EXPR), Nordstrom’s (JWN), and Urban Outfitters may be among the day’s big winners: The firm reports seeing "outsized traffic and conversion" at the 3 retailers, which it thinks may set the stage for "more meaningful market share gains" in December.

    One of my Wednesday picks:  Focus Media (FMCN +1.4%) rebounds a little more (previously) from the drubbing it received at Muddy Waters’ hands, after a 13-D discloses a company owned by CEO Jason Nanchun Jiang has boosted its stake in Focus Media to 16.74%, from a prior 12.8%. Shares have now doubled from Monday’s low, but still remain down roughly 15% from the time Muddy Waters’ report (.pdf) was published.

    Imax (IMAX +3.5%) trades higher after announcing it’s signed a revenue-sharing deal with British chain Cineworld to open three new theaters. The theaters will be installed in existing multiplexes in Edinburgh, Sheffield and Nottingham and will bring the number of Imax locations in the U.K. to 20.


  54. AMZN 2013 $130 puts can be sold for $14.50, $180/250 bull call spread is $24 for net $9.50 on the $70 spread with worst downside case being owning AMZN at net $139.50.  

    OIH/Barf – Not sure what would happen if they delist.  I’d get out rather than be left with a possible mess.  

    Wow, France and Germany did drop about half a point right at the bell.  Strange days indeed.  


  55. Phil: I prefer the Easter Bunny, who actually brings us stuff!


  56. FAS Money – We are losing steam… the roll to next week is looking more like to 54 now! 


  57. Retail slaves/
    Farmers, especially dairymen would love to have a blue law. Milking every 8 hours, 365 days a year including Xmas.
    I wonder if the retail slaves drink milk on Sunday?
    If Government blue laws applied to truckers, hospital workers, ambulance drivers, fireman, and farmers we would be cold, hungry, and desperate come Monday morning.
    But since retail is such a difficult occupation they deserve it?
    Blue laws- a little too much government for me. I don’t think the Government should tell us when we can shop, eat, work, or play.


  58. Pharmboy,
    What cause the price drop on YMI ? Not acting well after the $VRUS/$GILD deal.


  59. Watch Euro 1.3225 …may get back to premarket lows in the markets


  60. I’m guessing next week that GS will wheel out Abby Joseph Cohen and prop her up to change her prediction on S&P yet again for the end of year.


  61. Pharm have you done a write up on YMI?


  62.  Phil, can you suggest a good bear spread on USO for December?


  63. Stj – Have you ever mined the list of available weekly options for those with high thetas? I’m wondering if any of those would also be worth selling and buying back daily like you were looking into with FAS.
    And why are all the bums in my house STILL asleep? Stupid turkey.


  64. YMI – I did a brief one, but will do a more formal one in the week or so to come.  No reason for the stock to drop, and it now has very good support.  Just need to do some research into it, as I have been away.


  65. What a silly day, Dollar heading right back to 80 and markets heading right back to down 1%. 

    Retail/Spare – I’m just saying it’s nice to have a day where MOST people take off.   Once upon a time in America – almost everyone, including farmers, took Sunday off and we survived it.  Too much Government?  How about too much Big Business when you begin to believe that there’s something unAmerican about not working one day a week?   Religion was the original Government – laying down a few laws to prevent the common people from being exploited unreasonably.  Days off, rights to property, no killing the workers, no raping their wives…  a lot of worker’s rights issues in those 10 commandments…  

    USO/Mampcs – Now they’re down again so less fun.  The SCO $37/40 bull call spread is $1.60 and $2 in the money now (5%) so figure oil has to be over $98 to not collect.  You can offset it by selling Jan $33 puts for $1.20 and I super-doubt oil goes to the year’s high by Jan expirations ($35.58 was the low in May, when oil was $114) – still my 2nd favorite hedge to EDZ.  


  66.  Low volume fibrillation, high fear.  I flipped long, I’m down, the market seems rather oversold, the Euroleaders will have to come up with a "statement" soon, and that’s enough to make a living.   Have a good weekend, all.


  67. NFLX down and down all day.   

    Ireland’s Unwanted Anniversary Gift

    Heard on the Street: Despite making progress on budget targets since receiving a bailout, Ireland’s 10-year bond yield has rocketed 1.6 points to 9.8%


  68. FAS Money – Rolled the 1 FAS Nov 4 55 Put to 1 FAS Dec1 54 Put for a credit of 0.05. It’s the best roll available without dipping into the cash and the market closes in 30 minutes!


  69. Blue laws/Phil
     
    I moved to Bergen County 14 years ago and hated the blue laws at first because I couldn’t get anything on Sunday unless it was food related or hygiene.  Even Costco would be open but part of the store was closed on non food items (which still kind of makes no sense, you’re already there, might as well be able to buy whatever you want).  But now I love the blue laws, makes me try and get everything done during the week or on Saturday and am use to just relaxing on a Sunday now and love that there is very little if any traffic.  Can always go to Nyack if I urgently need to get something.


  70.  


  71. More talk out of Europe about the IMF taking a larger role, the markets know its BS it but it gives boost to the Euro.

    I’ll keep my eyes peeled for it Pharm!


  72. Seems to me like someone expected an announcement that didn’t come today.  Hopefully Monday….  

    12:00 PM On the hour: Dow +0.17%. 10-yr -0.07%. Euro -0.76% vs. dollar. Crude -0.05% to $96.12. Gold -0.52% to $1689.15

    In an effort to introduce stricter rules and shore up dwindling investor confidence in euro zone debt, member states are considering dropping private sector involvement in the region’s permanent bailout fund due to come into force in 2013, according to EU officials. 

    Still not a default?  The Greek government wants private creditors to take a 75% haircut as part of a proposed bond swap, according to Reuters. The figure is "far harsher" than the sub-55% haircut creditors have in mind. Those who don’t accept the bond swap will likely be forced to accept the same terms, due to the fact the bonds are written in Greek law.

    Early commentary on Black Friday traffic is largely positive. DisplaySearch’s checks at California retail locations indicated significant Y/Y traffic increases, as well as full parking lots for Best Buy (BBY +1.2%), Target (TGT -0.2%), and Wal-Mart (WMT +0.8%). Consumer interest in TV sets especially appeared to be strong, thanks to major promotions. However, Citi thinks good weather could be inflating sales

    After lifting its 2012 food inflation forecast in October, to a range of 3.5%-4.5%, the USDA is keeping it steady this month. Eggs and dairy are expected to see some of the largest price increases, with the USDA forecasting 5%-6% growth.  

    Internet stocks are selling off, with Netflix (NFLX -6.6%), LinkedIn (LNKD -3.8%), and Groupon (GRPN -4.3%) all adding to their recent bloodletting. Amazon (AMZN -3.8%) and eBay (EBAY -1.3%) are also moving lower, in spite of positive Thanksgiving e-commerce data

    Many large-cap Japanese ADRs are up strongly, and Sony (SNE +5.1%), whose shares closed on Wednesday near an 18-year low, is among the top performers. The company announced the European launch titles for its upcoming PlayStation Vita handheld console earlier this week, and is hinting the PlayStation 4 will arrive around the same time as the next-gen Xbox (MSFT), which is expected to hit stores in 2013.

    Panasonic (PC +3.8%) trades up after announcing plans to establish a company in Malaysia that will serve as its new solar manufacturing base. Panasonic Energy Malaysia, to be set up in December, will operate a vertically-integrated solar manufacturing facility producing from wafers to cells and modules. [


  73. Phil – Was looking over your sept dozen for some possible bargains, and noticed the X 2013 $18 puts can be sold for $4.10.  I assume if you thought that was a good deal at $2.70 that you would still consider this a good trade.  Right now you could roll to the 2013 $13 puts about even, so, it would seem there shouldn’t be a problem rolling lower to improve the position.
     
    thanks scot.


  74. Hight Teta / Kwan – I have not, but I imagine all the 3x ETF are valid candidate.

    Speaking of the FAS strangle, sold a FAS Dec1 45/55 strangle this morning at 9:51 AM for 2.78 and just bought i back for 2.24. So almost 20% in a couple of hours and close to 9% of committed margin! You really have to pick your fights on that trade, but it seems like a winner overall!


  75. SPX – next week 1135-1140 and bounce form there


  76.  Phil
    is there an AMZN call that looks good if the market recovers?
    Thanks
    Strether


  77. Phil / X – that was 2x the 2013 $13 puts, sorry for the confusion.


  78.  Phil, The wife and daughter reported about 18 minutes ago that the Best buy in Dublin, Ca was not crowded with shoppers!


  79. Blue Laws/Rustle – I’m in Passaic now, so people come here to shop but I like to go to Bergen on Sundays to hit the mostly closed Mall or one of the restaurants or Fairway, where Sunday is by far the best day to go there.  

    Belgium now downgraded to AA from AA+.  Really?  Like this matters?  

    X/Scott – Well now we are facing widespread slowdowns in Global manufacturing so I’d avoid making a big commitment.  X was $16.50 in 2009 and (and this goes for all stocks), we have to assume that can happen again but, of course, that sale is net $13.90 so sure, I like it but that doesn’t mean X won’t go lower.  As long as you REALLY want them though, so what?  

    AMZN/Streth – I liked the above play as I hate to pay premium on a naked call but, assuming good news on Cyber Monday – I think the Dec$200s at $2.50 are a fun poke at the upside as they were $5 last week so a relatively small recovery should give a nice return on those.  

    Dollar rejected at 79.80, giving us hope for a green close (barely).  

    BBY/L4 – That’s not good.  


  80. Fact about Black Friday, these are probably not the lowest prices of the year.  If stores don’t do well, they go into panic mode and slash things even more getting closer to the holidays.  It’s great if you do want a blow out deal on a Ken Wa HDTV but I prefer to buy a brand I have heard of before.


  81.  I know of at least 12 people (all females) that have traveled from Mexico City to different US malls for Black Friday despite rise in USD vs MXN… 


  82.  Phil
    Thanks
    Strether


  83. Dumping in /ES continues


  84.  what a lousy week for the markets…
     
    FU market!!!


  85. Phil,
    Clarification please re below post : Did you mean the SCO 40/46 (about 1.50 itm now , SCO 41.50) ?
    Thanks
    USO/Mampcs – Now they’re down again so less fun.  The SCO $37/40 bull call spread is $1.60 and $2 in the money now (5%) so figure oil has to be over $98 to not collect.  You can offset it by selling Jan $33 puts for $1.20 and I super-doubt oil goes to the year’s high by Jan expirations ($35.58 was the low in May, when oil was $114) – still my 2nd favorite hedge to EDZ. 


  86. Travel/IZega – I just don’t get that.

    Well, they blew it at the finish and the Dollar back to 79.80 so what can you do?  

    Have a great weekend everyone – I’ll be around but not today!  


  87. 666 on the RUT…. Imagine that!


  88. SCO/8800 – It was the $37s, that were trading between $4.70 and $5, selling the $40s, that were trading right around $3.80.  The last two sales were $3.86 and $5.85 but oil’s zig-zagging like nuts and I simply wouldn’t pay it when the intention is to be set up for a double on the bull spread.  The most important thing you can do with spreads like this is NOT to play them when you don’t get your price.  

    666/Rain – The mark of Lloyd!  


  89. OK, the weekend starts….. now!

    Have a good one everybody! 


  90. IMAX showing some nice pop off its 50 dma. 


  91. jabo and the markets aren’t showing any signs of stabilizing after "a lousy week" as you mention. By the way markets very close to premarket lows here.

    Great weekend folks.

     


  92. good morning post Phil — basically the premise I’ve been operating off incorrectly for a year is that BOTH the market and yields will rise (as the money printing machine cranks up), the effects of QE / QE2, etc.
     
    However, only gold has really run so far, and a year’s worth of TBT plays were dead meat. Still waiting for the tipping point where TBT and DIA move together more than against each other. Then the fun begins.
     
    In the meantime I used this period of faux-low rates to get a nice, assumable fixed rate 30 year loan at 3.875%….



  93. Nice day — not!! I needed a laugh.  My sister sent me one, for all you AAPL owners.
     
    http://www.collegehumor.com/video/6648229/siri-argument


  94. Interesting source ZZ.  Here’s Robert Reich explaining credit downgrades. 
    http://www.collegehumor.com/video/6585849/robert-reich-explains-the-credit-downgrade


  95.  Phil:  Your "Germany makes too much money selling to the rest of the Eurozone not to step up and bail them out" comment — damn, right again!  http://web.stratfor.com/images/charts/Germany_exports_800.jpg


  96. One Data point on Retail. My daughter works at a make-up/bath/body store. The final sales total was up more than 10% over last year on black friday. Its at a higher end mall. The promotion for regular customers started Wed. so Wed. was dramatically better than last year too. On the other hand, she knew of one store at a decaying mall that was behind target mid afternoon. But, I think that one is more location related. Nobody wants to go there any more.
    FYI


  97.  ZZ – Good chart on German exports.  I notice Greece is not there as a significant trading partner to Germany.  Since EU leaders are drawing up stricter guidelines, it sounds to me like the plan coming together is figuring out how to kick out Greece, at least, and maybe Portugal, then fire up the presses and bail out all the trading partners that matter.  Merkel is probably willing to pay the price to convince Germans to back the debt of major trading partners, like China buying our devaluing currency, but why help Greece?  Germany is comfortable monetizing their own debt like the Fed, so once Greece truly defaults, then I think they will be ready to agree to some kind of inflationary policy.  http://pragcap.com/germany-we-can-monetize-our-debt-but-the-ecb-cant  While anything can and probably will happen, I think the EU and the Euro survive, but minus the periphery nations.  


  98.  Also in support of the above conclusion, the NY Times this morning says many banks are making contingency plans:
     

    In a survey published Wednesday of nearly 1,000 of its clients, Barclays Capital said nearly half expected at least one country to leave the euro zone; 35 percent expect the breakup to be limited to Greece, and one in 20 expect all countries on Europe’s periphery to exit next year.
    Some banks are now looking well beyond just one country. On Friday, Merrill Lynch became the latest to issue a report exploring what would happen if countries were to exit the euro and revert to their old currencies. If Spain, Italy, Portugal and France were to start printing their old money again today, their currencies would most likely weaken against the dollar, reflecting the relative weakness of their economies, Merrill Lynch calculated.
     
    Question: If you are short FXE or hold puts on the ETF, what happens if the Euro breaks up?


  99. If consumers are getting such great deals on Black Friday, where do the profits come from? Either the goods were originally overpriced or else they are dumping stuff they could not sell before.


  100. Black Friday -
    Loss leaders – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loss_leader


  101. http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/283326/what-constitutional-conservatism-yuval-levin?pg=1
     
    What Is Constitutional Conservatism?
    It is no surprise that we find the same pattern in our economic and our constitutional debates. In fact, the humble assumption of permanent human imperfections and the humble desire for forms that might prevent large mistakes are at the core of the greatest achievements of the modern age: of constitutional democracy, of the free market, of the scientific method. Yet the most ardent champions of liberalism in our politics have too often failed to see the power of such humility, instead articulating a liberalism rooted in utopian ambitions or their mirror image — naïve resentments — all dressed up as a theory of justice.


    The difference between these two kinds of liberalism — constitutionalism grounded in humility about human nature and progressivism grounded in utopian expectations — is a crucial fault line of our politics, and has divided the friends of liberty since at least the French Revolution. It speaks to two kinds of views about just what liberal politics is.


  102.  Rev:  Good question, imponderable answer, lots of game theory.  If it’s just Greece & Portugal — certainly a possibility — the Euro might rocket up to 1.45.  Then again, it might not, if the market believes there’s another domino or two to fall, e.g. Spain or Italy.  
     
    It also depends on what "Merkonti" are saying about any Eurozone country exit[s], which they presumably would know about ahead of time.  And whether the market believes what they say: "With Greece/Portugal out, Germany steps up and we have a new Eurozone bond backed by the full faith & credit of all" — or say something much more ambiguous, which puts the knife to the throat of  Phil’s point about whether Germany indeed is willing to throw its wallet on the table to preserve its import tariff-free export markets in the Eurozone.
     
     If there is a linear equation to solve this, I cannot come up with it.  There is the overarching possibility that any kind of "newly-announced arrangement", however logical and solid in conception, will still see investors running for the exits on a "wait & see" basis, given the cluster-F that we’ve seen out of Europe so far. Or , alternatively, fainting with relief and triggering the mother of all Euro rallies.
     
     Much as I treasure my Euroshorts, still making money on Friday, Arnold Rothstein may have it right here — when you don’t see the play, keep your money in your pocket.  I may have to go flat and wait for one.   "It ain’t what you don’t know that hurts you, it’s what you know that ain’t so."


  103. VIX – Hey, something actually interesting from CNBC: What’s up with the VIX?


  104.  Did anyone take a read of this article over the weekend?
    http://www.philstockworld.com/2011/11/26/guest-post-a-glimpse-into-the-future-of-the-stock-market-and-dollar/
     
    Paints a pretty bleak, but convincing picture from a TA viewpoint.  Any thoughts?  
    Mine are to get my hedges buttoned up on monday!


  105. Great article on motivations behind the Black Friday shopping frenzy. Here’s a quote:
     
    Black Friday is "hunting for women," said Leisa Reinecke Flynn, professor of marketing and fashion merchandising at the University of Southern Mississippi. "It’s so much like deer hunting, it’s hard to tell the two apart."
     
    http://azstarnet.com/business/local/professors-study-psychology-behind-love-for-black-friday/article_1bd349d5-8aeb-5e8c-aeaf-29bbb7fdecf1.html


  106. Phil/ECA, In July 2010 I bought 200 ECA at 31.20 and sold 2 each  2013 30 P+C, Rolled to 2013 25 P+C, and rolled the calls to Jan 2012 20′s. I have collected some on the call rolls but am down on the stock and puts. Stock now 17.80 and I know I am screwed but what is the best way to save some of it with little margin left. I know I should have never let it get away from me like this. Thanks


  107. I love the Buy More Stuff photo !

    Hopr y’all had a Happy Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Small Business Saturday, and tomorrow, Cyber Monday.

    futures up on all sorts of Trial balloons.

    i noted on Friday that the market was very oversold, just look at $NYMO, and that we should be at or near a short term bottom.

    That was on twitter.


  108. Good evening!  

    Ended up having a very busy weekend.  Just sitting down now to look things over but figuring a good night’s sleep beats worrying about it now.  

    Looks like the Futures are flying because the IMF and ECB made nice noises over the weekend and Bundesbank said that Eurobonds weren’t such a bad idea after all (in other words, just what we expected would happen).  

    We’re up about a point and a half at the moment – very impressive – now we’ll see what sticks.  

    Dollar down 1% to 79.35


  109.  Phil…..Don’t bother an answer tonight, but sometime tomorrow perhaps could you review your recommended downside hedges.    


  110.  Rumors – As Phil said, Europe trying to figure something out…Here is what pragcap had to say:
    http://pragcap.com/is-europe-moving-towards-a-bazooka
    Collen Roche said this could lead to the following:

    The timeline here is for the December 9th summit so it wouldn’t be shocking to see a face ripper rally in equities in the coming weeks leading up to that meeting.  There are A LOT of investors caught flat footed right now betting on the end of the world scenario.  Remember, this is the global government put at work.  Getting in front of this via short positions has been the equivalent of stepping in front of a bullet train.

    If this is like other EU "solutions" I am ready to move up and down a lot the next month, but I hope this is the case for tomorrow, because I was still too much on the long side despite all the warnings.  I just did not get to cash quick enough, so now a chance to catch up, if this holds till morning.  I’d be glad to get ahead a bit before December 9, and then cut down on the trades I have.  I have a very bad habit of getting too many trades up in the air with too many agendas for each trade.


  111.  RevT:  A reader made the following comment to the good article you posted:
    "It’s not just breakup or integration. The critical point is dividing up the losses. Losses can be divided up in a EU without a euro or without one, with the ECB capping rates or without, with eurobonds or without. All the drama is in the politicians trying to find way to divide losses that the politicians can accept without too much career risk."
     
      


  112. /es around 1185 – may be resistance.
    we’ll retest 1130-1140 in near future.
    Before any real rally


  113.  Phil--would love to hear your opinion on this article that was sent to me..
     
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203716204577016092542307600.html


  114. Good morning!  

    Still up up and away in our futures, up over 2% with Europe up 3% and London up 2% after Hong Kong closed up 2%, Shangahi flat, Nikkei up 1.5% and India up 3% – all pretty much on positive shopping reports out of the US and, of course, Europe being "fixed" yet again.  

    Holiday sales are apparently up 16.4% from last year with, if I heard correctly, 10% of those sales being IPhones and Ipads.  Maybe that includes IPods too but it didn’t include Macs so, either way, it’s a $5Bn+ weekend for AAPL so the shorts will be taking that one up the ass on the Nasdaq this morning.  

    Now, people may think this is all fantastic but we like to think twice – even though thinking sometimes gets us into trouble.  Thinking plus math says that, if AAPL is 10% of holiday sales or more and holiday sales are up 16% then doesn’t that mean holiday sales are only up about 6% as people generally say "I”l buy the same stuff I bought last year and an IPad."  So, this does not necessarily spell huge success for retail in general – just for inflation and AAPL.

    Cyber Monday will give consumers another chance to "shop ’til your boss catches you" (not as catchy as "shot ’til you drop" but they’re working on it) but now expectations are high so we’ll see.  Personally, I walked into the mall and walked out as it was crowded and noisy and I wasn’t in the mood anyway (my daughter dragged me after a movie) so I guess that’s a good shopping sign in general.  

    Back to Europe – In general, France and Germany seem to be working on measures to put new rules into place that don’t require changes in the treaty (and thus avoid all that ugly voting).  There are also rumors that the IMF is giving Italy some sort of credit line and last, but certainly not least, there’s talk going around that the Fed will step in to backstop EU debt buy buying all the EU bonds held by US institutions – essentially flipping all their low-yield notes and encouraging them to upgrade to high-yield notes, which the Fed will buy too – all with our future money, of course.

    So, short story is it’s the same old Ponzi scheme to kick the old can down the road with the added bonus of AAPL not having anything wrong with them at all and the rest of retail not sucking either – not exactly a surprise, is it.  

    That means we head back to our Must Hold levels, which is where we expect to be anyway so I don’t consider this a rally – just a correction to the ridiculously oversold 2 weeks we just had.  

    Oh yeah and the Dollar dropping back to 79 (1%) helped as well.  Oil tapped $100 and that’s going to be the best short but a lot of squeezing going on this morning first.  


  115. Faux-low/BDC – The best play. 

    Germany/ZZ – Yep, and you see what they’re doing this weekend – essentially telling the rest of Europe, we’re going to bail you out whether you like it or not.  

    Liberalism/Pstas – Yes, we should just smash people’s heads in and take their stuff because that’s human nature so let’s just stop kidding ourselves and start killing – why dress things up in this "society" , right?  It’s all Utopian BS when real men (like you, of course) know that it’s all about survival of the fittest except, of course, in the case of creation, which occurred divinely…

    ECA/Jomp – remind me later but they are oversold just like everything else in the market.  Your net was about $25, right?  There’s no reason to think they can’t get back there over time but let’s take a closer look once we see where they are today. 

    Hey Cap, yep, just a bit oversold and expecting that 20% retrace of the 10% drop anyway – even if we are heading lower.  

    Interesting Jabob – I’ll have to think about it more later.  I don’t agree that unions are in control, of course but the idea that Wall Street benefits from funding unaffordable muni dreams is more interesting to me. 


  116. AAPL – Oops. No prude here – and I generally like a stinging turn of phrase myself. But you probably accidentally slipped into a generally homophobic one with regard to AAPL shorts.


  117. N*LX, it was just a figure of speech – sounds like you are reading something else into it.


  118. Homophobic/NF – You’re right, I shoudl have said " so the shorts will be taking that one up the ass on the Nasdaq this morning (not that there’s anything wrong with that, of course – indeed some folks find it quite pleasurable)."  My apologies to anyone who was offended.  For the record, I love gay people – less competition for me from the guys and I certainly can’t argue with a woman’s preference for women…  How’s that, all better?  8) 


  119. Homophobia – Yeah. Run either version by your/our friends at OWS. I’m sure the lefties would happily sign off on both. I have to keep reminding myself I come here only for the trading expertise. But it was just “a figure of speech” you silly fag. Lol indeed.


  120. Homophobia / NF**X – The metaphor is a reference to rape which is understood by all to be an unpleasant event…and we should just drop the conversation at that.


  121. pakdog – Ah. My fault. It was just a funny rape reference. Gotcha.


  122. NF – I don’t particularly like the metaphor myself but am holding out hope our morning doesn’t disintegrate on this topic. Call me insensitive then.


  123. FAG I HAVEN’T HEARD THAT WORD IN A LONG TIME..ITS WHAT THE BEATLES USED TO CALL A CIG YA KNOW


  124. angel – Yeah. Too soft I know. Didn’t feel good about going all the way fag**t. Lol.


  125. pakdog – Fair enough. Let’s make some dough. For real. Online chat slower than face-to-face of course, so what would have been two minutes gets dragged on.


  126. "Let’s make some dough" / NF – John D. Rockefeller himself couldn’t have said it any better! :)