Archive for 2011

ECB Rate Hikes could Kill Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and even Spain!

Courtesy of Smart Money Europe

On Sunday, new analysis of the recent actions by the ECB was published in the Observer (Guardian). The British media outlet hired consultancy firm Fathom to evaluate the bailouts of different European member states and the possible outcome.

The study concluded that the bailouts are not the biggest threat for Europe. The renewed hawkish stance by the ECB, which led to the recent interest rate hike, is far more dangerous!

Via the Observer:

Analysis by City consultancy Fathom, obtained exclusively by the Observer, shows that because the interest rates on the bailouts provided to Greece and Ireland track the European Central Bank’s lending rate, a series of increases could push these countries – and Portugal – into default.

 

“If the ECB continues to tighten policy, the impact is clear: default is more or less inevitable,” says Fathom director Danny Gabay. “Greece is clearly on an unsustainable path.”

 

Fathom also warns that Spain remains vulnerable, despite Madrid insisting last week that its economy is much healthier than Portugal’s and its debts are much more manageable. Spanish banks must roll over debts worth more than 5% of GDP this year, and more than 9% in 2012, in addition to the government’s financing needs. A two-point increase in the interest Madrid pays in the bond markets – much of which could come from the ECB, even without a further loss of confidence from bond investors – would, on Fathom’s calculations, force Spain into a fiscal crisis.

 

A string of defaults could shatter the markets’ confidence, Gabay argues, resulting in a devaluation of up to 30%, with significant knock-on effects: “What could make the markets lose confidence is watching these countries implode.”

While the experts are discussing the future of the EU, the euro is on a tear versus the dollar, choking European exporters. This could lead to even more damage to tax income, i.e. state budgets.

There’s no question about it: the tensions are building rapidly in Europe. At the current pace, Code Red could be installed fairly quickly for the European financial system.

>>> www.smartmoney.eu

Follow us on Twitter: @SmartMoneyEU





Oxen Group Webinar – How To Identify Winning Earnings Trades





Premarket Summary: Inflationary Hysteria

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

One word (well technically two) can describe what is going on in the electronic pre-market arena right now: inflationary hysteria. Gold is at a new record, wheat is surging, corn is at highest since 2008, crude at a new 30 month high, silver is at $41.10 – a new fresh post Hunt high, beans surging, etc, etc, etc. Essentially everything is bid, following news first reported on Zero Hedge that PIMCO is betting the farm that either inflation is about to go parabolic and force bondholders to dump everything, or that the Fed will have no choice but to pursue another round of QE, sending gold to $2,000 and unleashing the Weimar endgame.

Gold:

Silver:

WTI:

Corn:

etc.

 





An Inconvenient Truth – The Truth Shall Not Set Us Free

Courtesy of Cognitive Dissonance

An Inconvenient Truth – The Truth Shall Not Set Us Free

By

Cognitive Dissonance

 

There is a widely held belief among those who wish for ‘the truth’ to be exposed that once this is accomplished the insanity will begin to unravel and a new day will dawn. Unfortunately this belief is erroneous, delusional even, and by itself also a part of the insanity. The uncomfortable and extremely inconvenient truth is that ‘truth’, regardless of where it originates or whether it’s really truth or not, will never set us free because the official lies are not the ultimate source of our bondage. Instead the lies are just a small part of the overall control system, a system that relies upon our willing (some would say informed) consent not only to exist but to endure. 

Hidden somewhere deep down inside any discussion of true and false statements by politicians, the Bureau of Lies and Statistics (BLS), psyops and disinformation programs, WikiLeaks or any other governmental, corporate or individual propaganda is a simple and fundamental truth that’s widely known but carefully ignored. We are being lied to by hundreds of entities about dozens of different subjects, all for the purpose of maintaining or increasing control and power over the masses. The truth of these fundamental lies is all around us and yet we are still not free.

The only way a relatively small nucleus of people can control a much larger population is through psychological manipulation regardless of whether it’s by way of brutality or baubles. Spending our days minimizing, dismissing or bargaining with these controlling lies is simply the process we use to avoid dealing with our own internal self deception. This is also a well understood and universal truth that is self evident, obvious even, to those who wish to honestly look. Yet it is denied as well.

We hide this fact from ourselves by differentiating between big and small lies, from their evil propaganda and our harmless little tales. And we always tell ourselves
continue reading





Balancing Act – Stock World Weekly

Courtesy of ilene

This week’s Stock World Weekly is called “Balancing Act.”  

Click here for the full pfd file, Balancing Act.

Cost of Living Stampede

Excerpt:

Inflation and stagflation have been important topics of debate, particularly since the Fed announced the QE2 program last fall, and even more so as prices of commodities have been rising unabated. While Fed apologists make academic arguments that QE shouldn’t cause inflation, many financial commentators disagree. Jason Kaspar, of GoldShark.com, discussed the subject with SWW editor Ilene in email correspondence. Jason wrote, “The real definition of inflation is an increase in the money supply, and according to me, that includes credit as well. The real definition of deflation, conversely, is a decrease in the money supply.

“Logic presupposes that when the money supply increases, the prices of goods will increase. This is generally true. However, the reverse is not always true. An increase in the price of goods does not necessarily mean there has been an increase in the money supply.

“For example, during the collapse of 2008, a tremendous amount of money was vaporized through de-leveraging (among other things). We saw much of this occur in the mortgage market with innumerable foreclosures. When the Treasury instituted its stimulus spending and the Fed helped facilitate this spending through quantitative easing in 2009, the stimulus served only to replace the money that was lost. The Fed bought mortgage backed securities (in QE1) and treasuries from the banks, but instead of lending that money out to individuals, the banks allowed it to build in reserves at the Fed (which renders it useless) or have been investing that money in assets, like food, equities, gold, etc.

“Therefore, even though there is no overall increase in the money supply (M3 has started contracting again recently), some of the QE money has been shifted into specific assets, which are enjoying nominally large price increases. This is the difference between money supply inflation, and price inflation.”

Russ Winter, at Wall Street Examiner, and author of Winter Watch writes, “The following chart says it all (below). The Fed’s aggressive Treasury monetization has been the causa proxima (90-percent correlation) to the pedal-to- the-metal Minsky Meltup in commodities. I suspected this would be the effect but confess I did not believe the Fed and government could be so irrational and stupid as to attempt it, especially with the blowback evident by year end. Though I
continue reading





Gaddafi To “Give Ceasefire A Chance” – Accepts Undetermined “Roadmap To Peace”; Oil Dips To Be Savagely Bought

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

It almost seems like it was yesterday that Hugo Chavez was threatening to steal Obama’s peace prize from under the president nose, when one dictator seemed on the verge of ending another dictator’s multi-decade rule. But not really. And since nobody remembers that fable any more, it is time to come up with a new rehash on a common theme. Per Reuters, “Muammar Gaddafi has accepted a roadmap for ending the conflict in Libya, South African President Jacob Zuma said on Sunday after leading a delegation of African leaders at talks in Tripoli.” Good thing Zuma has so much more credibility in the international community than Chavez. Or else people may see through yet another attempt at push oil prices lower for a day or two while the big boys load up, only for the rumor to dissipate in a day or so. “Zuma, who with four other African heads of state met Gaddafi for several hours at the Libyan leader’s Bab al-Aziziyah compound, also called on NATO to stop air strikes on Libyan government targets to “give a ceasefire a chance.”” We are not positive, but something tells us the Beatles are about to get a asston of royalties on that particular phrase. And just in case there is no confusion about just what this “roadmap” entails, there damn well should be. “No one at the talks gave details of what was contained in the roadmap. Anti-Gaddafi rebels have said they will accept nothing less than an end to Gaddafi’s four decades in power, but Libyan officials say he will not step down.” So no actual details, but please sell Brent or else Goldman won’t be able to load up. Is that about the gist of it?

More from Reuters:

 “I have some commitment which is compelling me to leave now but we have completed our mission with the brother leader (Gaddafi),” Zuma said after the talks.

Apparently Zuma, after extensive deliberations with the guy with the headdress, has realized how important it is to move his gold stash from point A to point B post haste.

“The brother leader delegation has accepted the roadmap as presented by us. We have to give ceasefire a chance,” he said.

“The delegation … will be proceeding tomorrow to


continue reading





ZH Exclusive: Bill Gross Is Now Short US Debt, Hikes Cash To $73 Billion, An All Time Record

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

A month ago, Zero Hedge first reported that Bill Gross had taken the stunning decision to bring his Treasury exposure from 12% to 0%: a move which many interpreted as just business, and not personal: after all Pimco had previously telegraphed its disgust with US paper, and was merely mitigating its exposure. This time, in another Zero Hedge first, we discover that it is no longer business for Bill – it has now become personal (and with an attendant cost of carry). In March, Pimco’s flagship Total Return Fund (TRF) has now taken an active short position in US government debt: -3% on a Market Value basis (or $7.1 billion), and a whopping -18% on a Duration Weighted Exposure basis. And confirming just what PIMCO thinks of US-related paper is the fact that the world’s largest "bond" fund now has cash, at a stunning $73 billion, or 31% of all assets, as its largest asset class on both a relative and absolute basis. We repeat: cash is more than PIMCO’s holdings of Treasurys and Mortgage securities ($66 billion) combined. To paraphrase: in March PIMCO was dumping everything related to US rates (see chart below). This is the first net short position that PIMCO has had in Government-related debt since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, and going positive in February of 2009 only after it became clear that the Fed would commence monetizing US debt one month later. This is the closest that Gross has come to making a political statement and is now without doubt putting his money where his mouth is. The only event that could possibly derail Gross’ thinking is a huge market crash forcing a rush to Treasury safety. Alas, as has been made all too clear recently, US debt is no longer the safe haven it once was. Which begs the question: when will the TRF break out a "gold" asset holdings line item.

And another side effect of the firm’s scramble away from debt and into cash is that the effective duration of TRF is now down to 3.6: only the second lowest since the 3.38 posted in December of 2008… when the world was on the verge of ending.

That Bill Gross is willing to risk a surge in redemptions (after all who would be willing to pay PIMCO to manage a third of…
continue reading





Day Laborers Brave Risks at Japan’s Nuclear Plants – NYTimes.com

Xcerpt (read the whole thing). This article alone makes a strong case for not supporting efforts to strip labor unions of power, of collective bargaining rights:

Of roughly 83,000 workers at Japan’s 18 commercial nuclear power plants, 88 percent were contract workers in the year that ended in March 2010, the nuclear agency said. At the Fukushima Daiichi plant, 89 percent of the 10,303 workers during that period were contractors. In Japan’s nuclear industry, the elite are operators like Tokyo Electric and the manufacturers that build and help maintain the plants like Toshiba and Hitachi. But under those companies are contractors, subcontractors and sub-subcontractors — with wages, benefits and protection against radiation dwindling with each step down the ladder.

[...]

In the most dangerous places, current and former workers said, radiation levels would be so high that workers would take turns approaching a valve just to open it, turning it for a few seconds before a supervisor with a stopwatch ordered the job to be handed off to the next person. Similar work would be required at the Fukushima Daiichi plant now, where the three reactors in operation at the time of the earthquake shut down automatically, workers say.

“Your first priority is to avoid pan-ku,” said one current worker at the Fukushima Daini plant, using a Japanese expression based on the English word puncture. Workers use the term to describe their dosimeter, which measures radiation exposure, from reaching the daily cumulative limit of 50 millisieverts. “Once you reach the limit, there is no more work,” said the worker, who did not want to give his name for fear of being fired by his employer.

[...]

 

Tetsuen Nakajima, chief priest of the 1,200-year-old Myotsuji Temple in the city of Obama near the Sea of Japan, has campaigned for workers’ rights since the 1970s, when the local utility started building reactors along the coast; today there are 15 of them. In the early 1980s, he helped found the country’s first union for day workers at nuclear plants.

The union, he said, made 19 demands of plant operators, including urging operators not to forge radiation exposure records and not to force workers to lie to government inspectors about safety procedures. Although more than 180 workers belonged to the union at its peak, its leaders were soon visited by thugs who kicked down their doors and threatened to harm


continue reading





ETF News Update: Theatre of the Absurd

Courtesy of John Nyaradi at Wall Street Sector Selector

This week’s soap opera in Washington, D.C. was truly the “theatre of the absurd” as Congress and the President wrangled over an “historic” $39 Billion budget cut that pales sadly in comparison to the $189 Billion deficit that the Federal Government ran up in March alone. 

We’ll discuss this in greater detail in a moment, but for today, Wall Street Sector Selector is content with its positions in gold, oil and inverse exchange traded funds and we remain in the defensive mode, anticipating stronger headwinds ahead. 

On My Radar

In the chart below we can see that the S&P500 remains in a bearish signal mode with a price objective of 1160.  Strong overhead resistance is at 1330 which held this week and support lies at the 1250 level. 

 Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com 

We have been in this range for the last 25 trading days but, as always, this sideways action will be broken one way or the other.  

Based on current fundamental and technical elements, we expect this break to be on the downwards side of the range. 

The View From 35,000 Feet 

The big news this week was the 11th hour “resolution” of the bill to keep the government open which resulted in an “historic” cut of $39 Billion.  As mentioned at the outset, this is truly the theatre of the absurd because the deficit in March alone was $189 Billion, and…
continue reading





Exclusive: Bill Gross Is Now Short US Debt, Hikes Cash To $73 Billion, An All Time Record

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

A month ago, Zero Hedge first reported that Bill Gross had taken the stunning decision to bring his Treasury exposure from 12% to 0%: a move which many interpreted as just business, and not personal: after all Pimco had previously telegraphed its disgust with US paper, and was merely mitigating its exposure. This time, in another Zero Hedge first, we discover that it is no longer business for Bill – it has now become personal (and with an attendant cost of carry). In March, Pimco’s flagship Total Return Fund (TRF) has now taken an active short position in US government debt: -3% on a Market Value basis (or $7.1 billion), and a whopping -18% on a Duration Weighted Exposure basis. And confirming just what PIMCO thinks of US-related paper is the fact that the world’s largest “bond” fund now has cash, at a stunning $73 billion, or 31% of all assets, as its largest asset class on both a relative and absolute basis. We repeat: cash is more than PIMCO’s holdings of Treasurys and Mortgage securities ($66 billion) combined. To paraphrase: in March PIMCO was dumping everything related to US rates (see chart below). This is the first net short position that PIMCO has had in Government-related debt since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, and going positive in February of 2009 only after it became clear that the Fed would commence monetizing US debt one month later. This is the closest that Gross has come to making a political statement and is now without doubt putting his money where his mouth is. The only event that could possibly derail Gross’ thinking is a huge market crash forcing a rush to Treasury safety. Alas, as has been made all too clear recently, US debt is no longer the safe haven it once was. Which begs the question: when will the TRF break out a “gold” asset holdings line item.

And another side effect of the firm’s scramble away from debt and into cash is that the effective duration of TRF is now down to 3.6: only the second lowest since the 3.38 posted in December of 2008… when the world was on the verge of ending.

That Bill Gross is willing to risk a surge in redemptions (after all who would be wiling to pay PIMCO to manage a…
continue reading





 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Trump and the problem with pardons

 

Trump and the problem with pardons

Courtesy of Andrew Bell, Indiana University

As a veteran, I was astonished by the recent news that President Trump may be considering pardons for U.S. military members accused or convicted of war crimes. But as a scholar who studies the U.S. military and combat ethics, I understand even more clearly the harmful long-term impact such pardons can have on the military.

My researc...



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Zero Hedge

Macron Suffers Huge Blow With Defeat To Le Pen

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

In what may be the biggest shock from today's European parliamentary elections, President Emmanuel Macron is set to suffer a blow with French voters set to hand a victory to Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, picking the vocal Eurosceptic and nationalist over the former Rothschild banker.

Macron’s En Marche (Republic on The Move) will have just 22.5% of the vote compared with 24% for Le Pen, according to pollsters Ifop. With Macron and Le Pen neck and neck ahead of the elections, the outcome will be a...



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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...



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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!


Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!







Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>