Archive for 2011

Visualizing What $1.2 Trillion In Secret Fed Bailouts To The Banking Kleptocracy Looks Like

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While Bloomberg has done a tremendous job of digging through 29,346 pages of FOIA data, its discovery is not at all surprising: that Wall Street’s (not to mention the rest of the world’s) biggest banks received a total of $1.2 trillion in previously secret Fed loans, in addition to the trillions in public backstops and loans from the US Treasury. As a reminder, “denominated in $1 bills, the $1.2 trillion would fill 539 Olympic-size swimming pools.” The best summary of this ongoing collusion between the Fed and Wall Street, in which it once again for the nth time becomes clear that all the Fed cars about is making sure its banking masters are never impaired, is from the article itself: “Even as the firms asserted in news releases or earnings calls that they had ample cash, they drew Fed funding in secret, avoiding the stigma of weakness.” And there you have it: everything that come out of Wall Street is and has always been a lie: either courtesy of 30 years of great interest rate moderation, in which only cheap money adds to banks’ top and bottom lines, or due to the Fed making sure the same banks never suffer a dollar loss when central planning fails, such as it does increasingly often lately (and forget about 10(b)-5 violation charges coming from the corrupt regulators: after all they are all in bed together). That Morgan Stanley, Dexia and Citi are, and have been since 2008, dead men walking, is by now known to all financially literate readers: additional confirmation can be found in the Bloomberg article, which we won’t paraphrase because it has all been said over and over. That said, Bloomberg has done a great visual interactive chart summary of who got what, when, how much, over peak and average metrics and so forth. We urge readers to play around with it (don’t worry, it won’t break the banks; and if it does the Fed will secretly bail them out again) and every time they consider putting money into our “solvent” financial system.





Cogstate Acquires 100% Holding of Axon Sports

Courtesy of Benzinga.

CogState (COGZF) today announced that it will acquire the remaining 50% stake in Axon Sports, resulting in Axon Sports becoming a 100% owned subsidiary.

Axon Sports provides online cognitive assessment to assist in evaluating and managing sports-related concussions. For CogState, the management of concussion in sport is a fast growing market, providing enormous opportunity for growth of revenue and profitability in the short term.

The 100% control of Axon Sports will allow CogState to utilise the Axon Sports online testing and associated materials to pursue the sports concussion markets outside North America.

Importantly, 100% control of Axon Sports means that CogState is in a position to take full advantage of current opportunities being discussed with large pharmaceutical companies with the aim of making CogState technology available to clinicians as a low cost, non -invasive, screening tool that could be provided within a clinician?s surgery, in numerous indications, including sports concussions.

CogState will acquire the 50% stake for 7,461,831 CogState Ltd fully paid ordinary shares at a notional price of $0.17 per share.





Guest Post: Print It And They Will Come

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors

Print It And They Will Come

I have to admit, I never understood Field of Dreams.  I “get” why it was popular – a quasi-mythical figure who just “knows” things.  Some good looking guys with enough sentimental moments to make women happy, and just enough baseball to make guys not cringe.  But honestly, I never understood the movie.

So, what does that have to do with printing money?  I guess I just don’t understand the fascination with it.  Why is printing money the best solution?  Why isn’t trying to pick up the pieces after some defaults, a better solution than printing.  With stock futures down again already, and Jackson Hole coming up, you know we will hear Wall Street (and anyone caught long) clamoring for the Fed and ECB to PRINT more money.  It seems to be the only “solution” to the debt burden too many countries are facing.  I agree that it is the only way to avoid some defaults and some pain.

But is the cure worse than the problem?  There will be problems if we let Greece default. It would drag down some banks, which would not be good – short term.  But I remain convinced that in 10 years, economists will praise FDR’s patience.  They will talk about how waiting for the system to recalibrate was a difficult but important decision.  Only once the system had “reset” would the policies work to create a great rebound.  We will learn that throwing money out of a helicopter only gets the money caught in the blades, destroying most of it, and possibly damaging the helicopter.  Those who felt Countrywide needed to be saved, or Bear Stearns had to be saved, will be vilified.  Those that let Lehman go, will be questioned on why they didn’t do a couple of things (guarantee swap lines, for example) but in the end, will be respected for their willingness to let excesses collapse, and let those that were prepared to prosper.

Every time we come up with a new “solution” to our problems, we gravitate towards “unknown” unknowns.  Maybe we should just take our medicine and try and deal with “known” unknowns.  I don’t know much about Rumsfeld, but that phrase resonates with me.  We continue to put out new…
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Print It And They Will Come

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors

Print It And They Will Come

I have to admit, I never understood Field of Dreams.  I "get" why it was popular – a quasi-mythical figure who just "knows" things.  Some good looking guys with enough sentimental moments to make women happy, and just enough baseball to make guys not cringe.  But honestly, I never understood the movie.

So, what does that have to do with printing money?  I guess I just don’t understand the fascination with it.  Why is printing money the best solution?  Why isn’t trying to pick up the pieces after some defaults, a better solution than printing.  With stock futures down again already, and Jackson Hole coming up, you know we will hear Wall Street (and anyone caught long) clamoring for the Fed and ECB to PRINT more money.  It seems to be the only "solution" to the debt burden too many countries are facing.  I agree that it is the only way to avoid some defaults and some pain.

But is the cure worse than the problem?  There will be problems if we let Greece default. It would drag down some banks, which would not be good – short term.  But I remain convinced that in 10 years, economists will praise FDR’s patience.  They will talk about how waiting for the system to recalibrate was a difficult but important decision.  Only once the system had "reset" would the policies work to create a great rebound.  We will learn that throwing money out of a helicopter only gets the money caught in the blades, destroying most of it, and possibly damaging the helicopter.  Those who felt Countrywide needed to be saved, or Bear Stearns had to be saved, will be vilified.  Those that let Lehman go, will be questioned on why they didn’t do a couple of things (guarantee swap lines, for example) but in the end, will be respected for their willingness to let excesses collapse, and let those that were prepared to prosper.

Every time we come up with a new "solution" to our problems, we gravitate towards "unknown" unknowns.  Maybe we should just take our medicine and try and deal with "known" unknowns.  I don’t know much about Rumsfeld, but that phrase resonates with me.  We continue to put out new…
continue reading





Chinese Think Tank Implies America May Be Falsifying Its Accounting, Says US On Way To Default

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Joe Biden came to China, saw, and failed to conquer the locals’ ridicule. Punctuating just how "effective" Biden’s visit to China was in order to "reassure that the US is solvent" (no seriously, that;s the name of the article) is a just released article in the Securities Times by Wang Tialong, member of Chinese think tank Center for International Economic Exchanges in which he went on to blatantly say that "The U.S. may be on its way to default on its debt despite the U.S. government’s ability to print more money, a Chinese think tank researcher said Monday." Now this is nothing new in the escalating war of words between the two countries, although increasingly China appears to be attacking the primary loophole that defenders of the unsustainable US debt use, namely the fall back to the USD as a reserve currency. Wang went on further to implicitly accuse the US of fabricating economic data: "There is also no way to punish the issuer country if it falsifies its accounting and there is no way to restructure the issuer either, Wang said." Well, when China accuses the US of "falsifying accounting" you know you have hit rock bottom.

From Dow Jones:

The U.S. may be on its way to default on its debt despite the U.S. government’s ability to print more money, a Chinese think tank researcher said Monday.

There is no guarantee for sovereign debt, which increases the risks the lenders face, said Wang Tianlong, a researcher at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, a think tank supervised by the country’s economic planner, adding that the issuer could be more careless in using the loans. 

In the short term, the U.S. doesn’t have much ability to reduce its deficit, Wang said in an opinion piece published in Securities Times. He added that the U.S. lacks the political system to guarantee that it will not default on its debt.

There is also no way to punish the issuer country if it falsifies its accounting and there is no way to restructure the issuer either, Wang said.

Wang’s comments come after the U.S. Vice President Joe Biden said Sunday the U.S. "never will default" on its government debt and reassured Beijing that Chinese investments in the U.S. are safe.

Slowly, surely, China…
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Guest Post: Weekly Kumo Break Suggests Long Term Structure Changing

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Chris Capre of Second Skies

Weekly Kumo Break Suggests Long Term Structure Changing

For those of you who are familiar with the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (One Glance Balanced Cloud Chart), one of its strengths is in communicating when major long term trends are beginning and ending.  This can either be done through the TKx signal (Tenkan-Kijun Cross) or a Kumo Break (cloud break).  Based on our Ichimoku analysis, we suspect the SPX is headed for much lower ground as an event that has happened only twice in the last 8 years has just occurred, a weekly Kumo Break.

One of the unique aspects of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo is the ‘Kumo’ which often contains instruments in trending environments.  When broken however (especially on longer time frames), it often signals a major reversal.  How has the SPX related to the Kumo in the past?  Since June of 2003, the SPX has maintained 81.2% of its time above the Kumo and only broken it once back in mid-Jan 2008 (when the market had started its major reversal).  Until now.

Two weeks ago during the panic sell-off in the major indices, the Kumo was broken but the market failed to close below it which is often a trigger.  The last time the market closed below the weekly Kumo (Jan. 18th, 2008), it did not close above it for another 87 weeks.  This prior close back in 2008 marked the beginning of a major bearish move down from the break at 1401.25 to a low of 666.79 (a 737.46pt move). 

Looking at the chart below, last weeks close in the SPX marked the 2nd close below it in the last 8+ years.  To us, this is very suggestive the technical structure (from an Ichimoku perspective) is decidedly bearish considering the rarity or uniqueness of this event and the SPX’s ability to hold above the Kumo for such a long time is no longer there.

What is also interesting to note is the time it took for it to break back below the Kumo after regaining the air above it back in late August 2009.  The fact it had such a long run above the Kumo from June 2003 – Jan 2008, was below it for 1yr and 6mos, then above it for only…
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It’s Not A Free Market, It’s Not A Controlled Market, It’s A Gong Show Market

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

From the latest monthly report by IceCap Asset Management, The Gong Show:

A free market is one in which government intervention and regulation is limited to tax collection, and the enforcement of private ownership and contracts. A controlled market is one in which governments directly regulate how goods, services and labour are priced and sold – the dynamics of economic supply and demand are ignored. Then there is the gong show market. Until recently, this type of market has only been available to 1970s TV game shows. Yet today, this exceptional form of dark comedy has been adopted by our global leaders as an acceptable approach to dealing with the World’s debt crisis. Unfortunately for every human being that fully grasps the enormity of the financial problems facing the World today, the reason for their dissatisfaction with the response from our global leaders is simply due to them not knowing the rules of the Gong Show. For your convenience, we provide them as follows…

Full report below:

 





Insider Weekends – August 19, 2011

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Welcome to edition sixty three of Insider Weekends. Insider buying decreased with insiders purchasing $130.3 million of their stock last week when compared to $225.6 million in the week prior. Selling on the other hand increased with insiders selling $680.3 million worth of stock compared to $225.6 million in the week prior. The big increase in insider selling was driven by a $445 million sale of Plains All American Pipeline (PAA) by Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen in a secondary offering through his company Vulcan Energy Corporation. Taking out this sale, insider selling was almost flat last week.

Sell/Buy Ratio: The insider Sell/Buy ratio is calculated by dividing the total insider sales in a given week by total insider purchases that week. The adjusted ratio for last week went up to 5.2. In other words, insiders sold more than 5 times as much stock as they purchased. The Sell/Buy ratio this week compares unfavorably with the week prior when the ratio stood at 1.27. We are calculating an adjusted ratio by removing transactions by funds and companies and trying as best as possible only to retain information about insiders and 10% owners who are not funds or companies.

Insider Sell Buy Ratio August 19, 2011

Insider Sell Buy Ratio August 19, 2011

Note: As mentioned in the first post in this series Introduction to Insider Weekends, certain industries have their preferred metrics such as same store sales for retailers, funds from operations (FFO) for REITs and revenue per available room (RevPAR) for hotels that provide a better basis for comparison than simple valuation metrics. However metrics like Price/Earnings, Price/Sales and Enterprise Value/EBITDA included below should provide a good starting point for analyzing the majority of stocks.

Notable Insider Buys:

1. Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, Inc. (VRX): $39.66

Shares of this pharmaceutical company were acquired by 2 insiders:

  • Chief Executive Officer J. Michael Pearson acquired 155,642 shares, paying $38.62 per share for a total amount of $6.01 million. Mr. Pearson increased his stake by 2.87% to 5,570,503 shares with this purchase.
  • President & COO Silva Rajiv De acquired 6,180 shares, paying $40.40 per share for a total amount of $249,666. Mr. De increased his stake by 2.62% to 241,758 shares


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Greece Avoids Bank Run By Last Minute Bail Out Of Proton Bank

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Alas, it is not a liquidity problem, it is a solvency problem. After delaying this realization for over two years, Greece, and Europe, are about to understand just how flawed “bailout” strategies that address the symptoms and not the cause, have been since the beginning of 2010. And while the world is engaged with the latest victim of the Bernanke-inspired, food-price inflation political upheaval better known as the Arab Spring, whose final stop is nothing less than Times Square, Greece quietly avoided the failure of smallish Proton bank (there is no FDIC backstop of failed banks in Greece), which would have resulted in a market wide panic, and a terminal bank run that would have toppled the Greek financial sector. Luckily, this was prevented in the last second courtesy of a capital injection in the last minute by the big 4 Greek banks. From the FT: “Greece’s four largest banks agreed to take up a €50m convertible bond to help recapitalise Proton Bank, a small lender, the central bank announced this weekend, in what is being seen as an attempt to avert a run on the country’s fragile banking system…“In this environment, it was essential to prevent Proton from collapsing and creating a mood of fear with unpredictable consequences,” said one banker, explaining the rationale for the take-up of the Proton bond.” In summary, Greece was lucky… this time around, they had enough cash to save the smallish lender. The next time around they will not be so lucky.

Greek banks no longer have sufficient high-quality collateral to seek funding from the European Central Bank after recent sovereign downgrades. But they are eligible for liquidity allocated by the Bank of Greece in agreement with the Frankfurt-based ECB and are expected to seek it this week.

 

All four big lenders – National Bank of Greece, Alpha Bank, EFG Eurobank and Piraeus Bank – face a looming liquidity crunch as about €10bn of government deposits are set to be withdrawn from local banks to pay off debt maturing in the next few weeks.

 

“In this environment, it was essential to prevent Proton from collapsing and creating a mood of fear with unpredictable consequences,” said one banker, explaining the rationale for the take-up of the Proton bond.

 


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Will The Cavalry Ride To The Rescue Again?: ETF Bulletin

Courtesy of John Nyaradi

 

As the Federal Reserve gathers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for its conclave this week, investors around the world are hoping (maybe praying) for Dr. Bernanke and his colleagues to, once again, ride to the rescue of global stock markets.

We’ll discuss possible outcomes, but whatever happens, it’s going to be exciting.

On My Wall Street Radar

This week’s volatility brought back memories of the not so good “good old days” of 2008 as markets struggled with dismal economic reports and the increasing likelihood of a double dip recession.

This week, stock market bulls will have to make a “last stand” from a technical point of view.

S&P 500 (SPY)

Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com

In the chart of the S&P 500 above, it’s easy to see the volatility and significant “waterfall” decline that has taken place.

However, it’s also important to note that support at the 1120 level held this week, in spite of the steady flood of negative economic reports. Nevertheless we remain firmly below the 50 and 200 Day Moving Averages and the “death cross” pattern we discussed last week still remains in play.

S&P 500 (SPY)

Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com
The S&P 500 chart above shows the point and figure bullish support line just below current levels and a sustained break below this level would indicate a new bear market based on point and figure methodology.
These major trend lines tend to act as “walls” and a break below current levels would be signficant.
The Economic View from 35,000 Feet

The economic view remains dark and threatening as this week’s readings brought no let up to the steady stream of negative data. The Empire State Index came in at -7.7, down from -3.7 previously and widely missing the +1.5 expected reading.

More shocking yet was the Philadelphia Federal Reserve report which plunged to -30.7 from +3.2 last month which is the lowest reading in this index since March, 2009, at the bottom of the “last recession.”

This is a most troubling number as readings below -20 in this index have always preceded or been accompanied by recession.

Treasury yields responded to the stock market volatility as bonds rose and yields declined to less than 2%, their lowest since the 1950s, while consumer prices continued their climb. So with rising inflation and falling bond yields, the 10 year Treasury is now…
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Zero Hedge

Enemy Of The People?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Via The Zman blog,

There has never been a time when normal people did not know the media was biased and biased in a predictable direction. For every non-liberal in the media, there were at least ten liberals. The ratio was probably higher, but then, as now, some lefties liked to pretend they were independents or some third option.

The media used to invest a lot of time denying they had a bias and an agenda, but the only people who believed them were on the Left, which had the odd effect of confirming they had a bias and an agenda.

...



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Phil's Favorites

A 2019 Earnings Recession?

 

A 2019 Earnings Recession?

Courtesy of 

Shout to Leigh!

On the new Talk Your Book – Josh Brown is joined by Leigh Drogen of Estimize, one of the leading providers of crowdsourced financial and economic data to talk about the trend in corporate profits that could potentially lead to an earnings recession later this year.

What is the thing that Leigh is seeing in the data that Wall Street isn’t yet picking up on? What segment of the stock market is most at risk? Why is the crowd smarter than the narrow consensus of Wall Street analysts?

Check out Estimize ...



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ValueWalk

D.E. Shaw Investment Calls For Leadership Change At EQT

By ActivistInsight. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Elliott Management has offered to acquire QEP Resources for approximately $2.1 billion, contending the oil and gas explorer’s turnaround efforts have done little to lift the company’s share price. The company responded and said that a thorough review of the proposition is imperative in order to properly act in the best interests of shareholders, “taking into account the company’s other alternatives and current market conditions.” The news came only a month after Travelport Worldwide agreed to sell itself to Siris Capital Group and Elliott’s private equity arm Evergreen Coast Capital for $4.4 billion in cash and two months after Athenahealth was bought by Veritas and Evergreen for $5.7 bi...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold & Silver Testing Important Breakout Levels!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Gold and Silver from a long-term perspective have created a series of lower highs over the past 8-years. Will 2019 bring a change to this trend? A big test is in play!

Gold since the lows in 2016 has created a series of higher lows, while Silver may have created a double bottom.

Gold & Silver are currently facing break attempts a (1) and (2). These falling resistance lines have disappointed metals bulls for the past few years.

The direction of Gold and Silver weeks and months from now should be highly influenced by what each does as they are attempting to break above important resistance levels.

To become a member of Kimbl...



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Insider Scoop

UBS Says Disney's Streaming Ambition Gives It A 'New Hope'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related DIS Despite Some Risks, Analysts Still Expecting Double Digit Growth From Communications Services In Q4 ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Digital Currencies

Russia Prepares To Buy Up To $10 Billion In Bitcoin To Evade US Sanctions

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

While the market has been increasingly focused on the rising headwinds in the global economy in general, and China's economic slowdown in particular, while the media is obsessing over daily revelations that Trump may or may not have colluded with Russia to get elected, a far more critical, if underreported, shift has been taking place over the past year.

As we reported in June, whether due to concerns over draconian western sanctions and asset confiscations following the poisoning of former Russian military officer Sergei Skripal, or simply because it wanted to diversify away from the dollar, Russia liquidated virtually all of its Treasury holdings in the late spri...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's failure based on his personality, which was evident years ago. This article, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump became president, in July, 2016, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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