Archive for 2011

Please Welcome The Latest Currency Peg

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

For the last 45 minutes, USDJPY has been unable to shake loose of 79.2 by more than a pip or two. Following the SNB and their efforts with EURCHF, which as far as we recall is technically pegged at 1.20, is Azumi now pushing another of our freely floating foreign exchange currencies to a peg, as he soaks up any and all USDJPY offers under 79.20? Gold is down a little (in its knee-jerk response to USD strength reflecting off the JPY intervention) but one has to wonder if slowly but surely we are being reverted to the ‘rigidity’ of a gold standard? Lastly, we eagerly await to hear the justification for this unilateral defection by a G-X member 5 days ahead of the G-20 meeting in Cannes this Friday (and we can’t wait for Schumer and Geithner to proclaim Japan a currency manipulator). Lastly, to all those who so vehemently were debating whether the EURUSD is down or not earlier (when it opened lower), feel free to take a look at the EURUSD chart right…about…now – 150 pips that worthless semantics will never get you back.

It is also worth noting that ES just dropped below Friday’s lows as JPY crosses become useless carry-drivers (for the first time in many weeks/months).

Update as of 11:45 EDT - still flat as a frozen siberian lake.



After Six Standard Deviation Jump, USDJPY Intervention Loses 38.2% In 30 Minutes

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Thanks to Mr. Azumi’s clearly unique perspective on Japanese currency fundamentals, USDJPY managed to peak with a six standard deviation move, bested only by 10/28/08 (what a weekend) before all the way back to 1995. However, as always with his unilateral decisions, the market seems to know best and we have already given back over 38% of the drop. Interestingly, broad risk markets have not enjoyed this move at all as correlations are not helping the Japanese cause and ES continues to leak lower.

USDJPY has given back 120pips from its highs having retraced almost perfectly (for Fibonacci fans) 38.2%.

The 6 standard deviation jump is second only to the spike on 10/28/08 (what a great 3 year anniversary?). Is it something about Halloween that gets the BoJ going? Prior to this, the previous largest move was in 1995!!

With Regling’s comments on Japan’s ongoing commitment to buying EFSF bonds, perhaps Azumi was just making some room?

Furthermore, for some perspective on what this kind of move in EURJPY (or JPY crosses in general) ‘should’ have meant for ES (based on empirical correlations/deltas), ES is testing Friday’s lows around 1274 while the ‘model’ says it should be trading around 1299!!! Seems like risk-off is overwhelming Azumi’s efforts.


Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by williambanzai7.





THE RAVEN (Debts No More)

(Edgar Allen Poe, The Raven)


Once upon a midnight dreary, while insolvent weak and weary,
Over a balance sheet covered in a cloud of debts galore,
While I nodded, nearly napping, suddenly there came a tapping,
As of some one gently rapping, rapping at my chamber door.
`’Tis some visitor,’ I muttered, `tapping at my chamber door -
Only this, and nothing more.’

Ah, distinctly I remember it was bleak as Lehman’s September,
And each despicable creditor wrought its ghost upon the floor.
Eagerly I wished the morrow; – vainly I sought more to borrow
From my books surcease of sorrow – sorrow for the abundant days of yore -
And the rare and hidden debts of toxic bailout whores -
Nameless here for evermore.

And the silken sad uncertain rustling of each indentured debt just
Thrilled me – thrilled me with fantastic plastic Sino-crap never bought before;
So that now, to still the beating of my heart, I stood repeating
‘Tis some banksta entreating entrance at my chamber door -
My late payments entreating his entrance at my chamber door; -
This it is, and nothing more,’

Presently my soul grew stronger; hesitating then no longer,
`Sir,’ said I, `or Madam, truly your debt forgiveness I implore;
But the fact is I was napping, and so gently you came rapping,
And so faintly you came tapping, tapping at my chamber door,
That I scarce was sure I heard you’ – here I opened wide the door; -
Darkness there, and nothing more.

Deep into that darkness peering, long I stood there wondering, fearing,
Doubting, dreaming dreams no debt bloated mortal ever dared to dream before;
But the silence was unbroken, and the darkness gave no token,
And the only word there spoken was the whispered word, `Debts No More!’
This I whispered, and an echo murmured back the word, `Debts No More!’
Merely this and nothing more.

Back into the chamber turning, my bankrupt soul within me burning,
Soon again I heard a tapping somewhat louder than before.
`Surely,’ said I, `surely that is something at my window
continue reading

Yentervention Time

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Update: It’s Official 

  • AZUMI SAYS INTERVENTION WAS DUE TO STRONG SIGNS OF SPECULATION – thank god Mrs Watanabe is not speculating on the short side.

Just in time for the MF Global news, we have what appears the latest Yentervention episode, as the USDJPY has just soared over 250 pips.We have no confirmation as of yet and could be merely a risk off move on the MF Global headlines. Or, potentially, was MF short a few yards of USDJPY and now that the end is in sight, is promptly unwinding all legacy positions?

And longer term

Chart: BBG

Clearinghouses, Regulators Told To Prepare For MF Bankruptcy, Risk Off

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Just out from Bloomberg, citing the WSJ:


The EURUSD has tumbled 50 pips in the aftermath of the news as risk just moved to the Off position

Is Gold Over Or Undervalued? How About The EFSF (Europe = Fastow, Skilling & Fuld)

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

From Sean Corrigan

In an opinion piece of our own, instigated by the gentlemen at Gold Money, we were asked how we work out whether gold is over or undervalued at any given minute. What a question at the best of times, much less now!

What we came up with was the following, something which encapsulates a theme about which we have written much of late:?

What is ?value? in a world where the single goal of the powers that be is to deny the market the ability to have its constituents? underlying ordering of wants accurately reflected in the price structure?


We have no proper market in capital; severely impaired markets in any number of basic goods; false markets in real estate; distorted markets in labour (hence why so many poor souls are still without jobs); and no certainty about anything except the awful certainty that nothing is off?limits to those who are  desperately trying to put Humpty Dumpty together again in time for the next turn of the electoral cycle rather than accepting that he has shuffled off this mortal coil and that it would be better now to see whether at least we can salvage a half?decent omelette out of the remains?

And that pretty much sums up our commentary on the EFSF—the ‘’Excruciating Folly of Suspending Finality’ or ‘Endorsing Falsity to Succour the Few’, or perhaps just ‘Europe = Fastow, Skilling & Fuld’.

Its agreement has ignited a rally—at that, one which could technically unwind much of the preceding rout, unless some renewed problem surfaces from among the many, murky lacuna in the details of how this Archimedean earth?mover will actually be knitted together; not least among them the suggestion that such a nakedly cynical attempt to frustrate the existential purpose of the CDS market might render its whole, multi?trillion edifice unstable and so force a widespread  rebalancing of holdings across the physical bond market.

To the extent that the deal does succeed in heading off an immediate meltdown, some removal of risk premia seems entirely justified, but that is not to say that Europe’s problems are at an end, nor that the global economy does not now hover parlously between a stalling recovery and a renewed slump.…
continue reading

Investor Sentiment: The Best Gains are Behind Us

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by thetechnicaltake.

I am not going to say I told you so because honestly, I had no knowledge of the current outcome.  All I know is that betting against the crowd — when that crowd is extremely bearish in their outlook towards equities — generally works out about 80% of the time with a reasonable draw down.  This time has been no different.  The SP500 has gained nearly 20% from its lows only 4 weeks ago.  While such gains are extraordinary, they really highlight two points.  One, the best, most accelerated gains occur while investors are bearish towards the market.  Two, with investor sentiment turning neutral, it is likely that the best gains are behind us.

As stated last week, seasonal factors, an expected positive resolution to macro economic events, and investors sitting on the sidelines wanting to get into this market will likely be positive factors.  As stated last week and the week before that, dips will be bought, and I don’t see that changing now.  The big change will be the decreasing acceleration in the rate at which gains will occur.

The “Dumb Money” indicator (see figure 1) looks for extremes in the data  from 4 different groups of investors who historically have been wrong on the market: 1) Investors Intelligence; 2) MarketVane; 3) American Association of Individual Investors; and 4) the put call ratio.   This indicator shows neutral sentiment, and this is a bull signal.

Figure 1. “Dumb Money”/ weekly

Figure 2 is a weekly chart of the SP500 with the InsiderScore “entire market” value in the lower panel.  From the InsiderScore weekly report:  “Insider trading volumes remained constrained last week as most executives and directors continued to be prohibited from buying/selling until after their respective companies’ Q3’11 earnings report. Activity did begin to pick-up towards the end of the tracking and will continue to do so as more and more companies announce results, but we won’t get a true macro tell for at least a week – if not two weeks. ” 

Figure 2. InsiderScore “Entire Market” value/ weekly

Figure 3 is a weekly chart of the SP500. The indicator in the lower panel measures all the assets in the Rydex bullish…
continue reading

MF Global Talking With Interactive Brokers – DealBook

Courtesy of Benzinga.

MF Global (NYSE: MF), the embattled commodities and derivatives broker led by former Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and U.S. Senator Jon Corzine, is in talks regarding a potential deal with Interactive Brokers (Nasdaq: IBKR), DealBook reported, citing sources with knowledge of the matter.

MF Global, which has been evaluating a possible sale or a corporate restructuring, has also been in talks with Jefferies (NYSE: JEF), but MF is said to be focused on negotiations with Interactive Brokers, DealBook reported.

Shares of MF Global plunged about 70% last week and bond investors ran for the exits as well after the company’s credit rating was downgraded to junk status. MF Global has lost money in four of the past six quarters and last Monday reported a $186 million quarterly loss.

Exposure to European bonds and riskier trading practices have brought the New York-based brokerage firm to the brink.

Evercore Partners (NYSE: EVR) is advising MF Global. Evercore and Corzine reached out to major Wall Street firms last week looking for a buyer, according to DealBook.

Connecticut-based Interactive Brokers executes trades for both retail and institutional clients.

Presenting The Capeless Crusader: The Deficit (Non) Super Committee

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While the soap opera in Europe lurches from one extreme to another, in the process creating substantial market knee jerk reactions, even though the final outcome is quite clear to most with cognitive bias blinders, the next major catalyst in the macro spectacle will come not from across the Atlantic, but from these here United States, in the form of the Super Duper Committee tasked with finding the $1.2 trillion in deficit cuts needed in order to make the August debt ceiling hike legitimate. As a reminder the debt back then was $14.4 trillion – tomorrow it will officially surpass $15 trillion for the first time ever, meaning that even as the Super Committee squabbles, half the benefit from its “successful” conclusion has already been implemented. And here is where Morgan Stanley’s David Greenlaw comes in with a piece in which he makes it all too clear that the Super Committee may be Clark Kent, but it sure is no Superman. “Press reports continue to suggest that the so-called Super Committee, established as part of the compromise agreement to hike the debt ceiling, is foundering. In recent days, Democrats and Republicans have offered competing plans that have little common ground. Republican members appear to remain committed to a no new taxes pledge, which will make it very difficult for the Committee to come anywhere close to its $1.2 trillion target.” In other words, just as nothing material or actionable (suffice for some grandiose delusions) came out of Europe, precisely the same will happen in the US, after our own dire fiscal situation is exposed for the naked emperor it is.

From the very same Morgan Stanley: “There is still a very wide range of possible outcomes, but our baseline expectation at this point is that the Super Committee will agree to $500 billion or so of deficit reduction (a significant portion of which may wind up being budgetary gimmickry that will not lead to any real deficit reduction). This means that $700 billion or so ($1.2 minus $0.5) of automatic deficit reduction would be slated to trigger in 2013. Of course, Congress and the Administration (either current or incoming) would still have an opportunity to override the automatic cuts at some later date.” It’s good that a major bank acknowledges that we have “budgetary
continue reading

Europe Looks to China

Courtesy of Patrick Chovanec 

First of all, a personal note and quick explanation:  last week, I had a medical emergency — nothing life-threatening, but enough to put me in the hospital and lay me low for a while.  I’m slowly on the mend, but for the past week I have had neither the energy nor the focus to author any blog posts, although I have been trying my best to keep up with the news.  So apologies for being ”radio silent” while so many interesting things have been going on.

The news these past couple of days has been dominated, of course, by the efforts of European Union leaders to reach a bailout agreement — and the fact that, immediately after the outlines of such an agreement were reached, the first thing the EU did was dispatch an envoy to Beijing, to persuade China to help fund the plan.  Arvind Subramanian, a scholar at the Peterson Institute and author of a new book called Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China’s Economic Dominance (which argues, among other things, that the Renminbi will emerge as a global reserve currency sooner than anyone expects), caught the mood of the moment with a prominent op-ed in the New York Times titled “Why China Should Bail Out Europe.”  In it, he argues that China’s moment as a Great Power has arrived: that it can and should save Europe, and in doing so, ought to demand political and economic concessions, including a dominant role in running the International Monetary Fund:

China should demand nothing less than a wholesale revamping of the governance of the I.M.F. to reflect the current economic realities. Governance reform can no longer be just about the nationality of the I.M.F.’s managing director but should fundamentally be about who will have the greatest voice and exercise the most power in the new world . . . Supplicants, China should insist, cannot have veto power in a financial institution. The Chinese government could then trumpet a nationalist achievement — equal status as the United States, and a greater status than that of Europe, in running the world’s premier financial institution — as the return for investing its cash abroad.

I haven’t had the chance to read Subramanian’s book in full (although I look forward to doing so), so I’m not going to undertake here to rebut his broader thesis.  But in this particular instance, China’s role in the EU bailout,…
continue reading


Zero Hedge

Visualizing How Much Oil Is In An Electric Vehicle?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

When most people think about oil and natural gas, the first thing that comes to mind is the gas in the tank of their car. But, as Visual Capitalist's Nicholas LePan notes, there is actually much more to oil’s role, than meets the eye...

Oil, along with natural gas, has hundreds of different uses in a modern vehicle through petrochemicals.

Today’s infographic comes to us from American Fuel & Petrochemicals Manufacturers, and covers why oil is a critical mate...

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Phil's Favorites

Assange's new indictment: Espionage and the First Amendment


Embed from Getty Images


Assange’s new indictment: Espionage and the First Amendment

Courtesy of Ofer Raban, University of Oregon

Julian Assange, the co-founder of WikiLeaks, has been charged by the U.S. Department of Justice with a slew of Espionage Act violations that could keep him in prison for the rest of his life.

The new indictment expands an earlier one charging Assange with conspiring w...

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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ... more from Insider

Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...

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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!

Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!

Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control


Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...

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DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University


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More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...

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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism


The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"



Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:


·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union


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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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