Archive for 2011

What Wednesday 8am Fed Headline Is Being Leaked Now?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Forgive our skepticism, but since our earlier market snapshot, most of the broad risk drivers have notably receded from their evening highs – while ES remains at highs. Together with the worst Composite China PMI print in 32 months, we are seeing CONTEXT diverge notably weaker than the ‘resilient’ ES futures. TSYs did open modestly offered but it is the retracement in FX carry, Silver, Gold, Copper, (and even Oil) that is dragging risk ‘off’ as the e-mini S&P futures contract holds magically at Friday’s closing VWAP. We wonder what comfortable bid is being maintained by them-that-know-better-than-us-what-comes-next? We can only assume that the old adage that the ‘worse it gets the better it will be’ so BTFD is back in full force but we remind those knife-catchers (alone in the equity market for now this evening) that optical backstops are showing cracks and balance sheets are deleveraging no matter what is done to prop-up sovereigns until Santa arrives.



Late Friday we saw risk come off notably and ES slowly realize and leak lower to converge (red solid oval). As all the factors opened this evening, we saw CONTEXT and ES converge once again (red dotted oval) then since the broad basket of risk assets has dropped back to unchanged from Friday’s close (red arrow) while ES has held up (as seen below – at Friday’s closing VWAP level (the light blue arrow) – an often important balance point for institutional traders).


Copper is 1.3% off its earlier highs, Silver 1% down from its opening level, Gold 0.5% down (back to unch) and even Oil (entirely ignoring the drama in the Middle East for now) is leaking back to only 0.4% up from Friday’s close.

30Y TSYs are underperforming for now as EUR leaks back and EURJPY is only 10pips up from Friday’s close. Swissy is the worst performer of the majors against the USD (and only one negative) while CAD is the strongest.

Charts: Bloomberg

60 Minutes: PROSECUTION Is Overdue

Courtesy of Karl Denninger of The Market Ticker

4 1/2 years down the road with me pounding the table almost on a daily basis, and we have…

Borgers tells Kroft that the FCIC found evidence of trillions of dollars of fraud and gross negligence, and that in the area of mortgage fraud, he found crimes committed by "mortgage originators, underwriters, banks . . . across the board." Yet still, no prosecutions . . . so far.

That’s the bottom line…. so tell me…. do you still believe that The Government is not intentionally involved in covering this up and keeping the people who should be in prison from facing the music for their crimes?

Here’s the original segment and link to it.


I Hope You’re Prepared. Really.

Courtesy of Karl Denninger, The Market Ticker  

I know, I know, the market was up something like 800 DOW points this week, with two huge spikes – one probably on the back of a leak that Bernanke and pals were going to intervene, and the second (about 50 S&P handles) when they actually did.

Here’s the problem: Desperation is not a good reason to buy a market.  In fact, it’s a good reason to sell it.

And we were, my friends, talking about desperation here.

Anyone who thinks otherwise has rocks in their head.  And if you think what was done was a "bazooka" you’re dumber than a bag of hammers.  In point of fact the change in the swap rate did a gigantic effective nothing!

So why do it?  Confidence, basically.  No other reason.

Let’s not kid ourselves though.  The people who made the correct bet — that this was going to blow up in everyone’s face — got rammed last week.  That means their liquidity that they provided to the market is now gone, as it was lost to the handful of insiders who were told first before it happened, just like Paulson told his buddies that Fannie and Freddie were going to be destroyed.

So once again we have had liquidity taken out of the market by an attempt to lie, cheat and steal.  This is bad, not good, but if there was some fundamental change in the sustainability of the situation it might be worth it.

Unfortunately nothing at that level has changed.  And what needs to change is quite simple: Governments cannot continue to spend more than they take in via taxes.  That’s the beginning and end of it.

The discussion that must take place — here in the United States, in Europe, in Japan, everywhere — is the same.  Whatever services the people want they must pay for with current taxation.  Not taxes tomorrow (e.g. "Payroll tax cuts paid for over 10 years") but right here, right now, in taxes, and that which the people refuse to pay for in current taxes government must not spend.

That is, these governments must not only stop deficit spending they must cut spending below parity with taxes because tax receipts are going to decline when the deficit spending stops and the artificial support ends!

I don’t think most people have any idea exactly how bad this really is.  In 2000 we could have cut…
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The Latest Rumor: Fed To Fund IMF, Bypassing Congressional Refusal Of European Bailout

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While we have long been mocking any rumors representing formal attempts to get the IMF’s funding to higher level, due to the need for a congressional approval over and beyond what is currently permitted which means any such plan is DOA, one loophole always has been the private bank known as the Federal Reserve, which may, as permitted by its charter since its charter allows it to do pretty much anything even buy Greek and EFSF, not to mention Italian, bonds, lend to the IMF at will. And just as last week demonstrated, when push comes to shove the Fed will always bail out Europe, so tonight German paper Die Welt (which has about the same success rate as Thomas Stolper at predicting the future) had put two and two together and come up with the latest rumor, namely that Ben Bernanke is about to directly bail out Europe using the IMF as an intermediary. Via Reuters, “The Federal Reserve, along with the 17 euro zone national central banks, may help provide the International Monetary Fund with funds that could be used to aid debt-ridden states, a German newspaper said. Die Welt cited sources close to the negotiations as saying the euro zone central banks could pay at least 100 billion euros ($134.2 billion) into a special fund that could be used for programs for nations struggling to control their debts. “Also other central banks, for example the U.S. Federal Reserve, are apparently prepared to finance a part of the costs,” the paper said in an advance copy of an article to appear on Monday.” That there is not an iota of truth in this article is a given, yet the market will latch on to this latest rumor like a rabid pitbull… until it realizes that by having to resort to such grotesquely made up stories it means that the ECB, which is the only real short-term rescue mechanism for Europe, is nowhere near close agreeing to do what the bulk of Europe’s bankers (but not Goldman) demand it do – print.


Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner may discuss the idea in the coming weeks when he visits Europe, the paper said.


Officials had said on Saturday that talks on the size

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The Jobs Report: Don’t Break Out the Champagne

Courtesy of Robert Reich

In brief: The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ household survey shows unemployment at 8.6 percent, and the payroll survey shows 120,000 new jobs in November (140,000 from the private sector, and a loss of 20,000 in the public sector). BLS also revised upward its job numbers for September and October.

What does it mean? We’re not out of the woods but we might be seeing some daylight.

Maybe. Here’s what you need to worry about:

First, this rate of job growth is barely enough to keep up with the growth in the working-age population. So we’re not making progress on the backlog of more than 13 million jobless Americans, and another 11 million working part-time who’d rather have full-time jobs.

Second, retail jobs constituted a third of new private-sector employment in November. Retail jobs tend to be unstable, temporary, and low-paying. Although the BLS is supposed to adjust for seasonal employment (i.e. Christmas), it doesn’t take account of the fact that more and more Americans have been pushing up their Christmas buying to before Thanksgiving. So some of these jobs may not be around very long.

Third, the jobless rate fell partly because around 315,000 people who had been looking for jobs dropped out of the job market in November. Remember: If you’re not actively looking, you’re not counted as unemployed on the household survey.

Fourth, hourly earnings are down, as are real wages. So to some extent Americans have been substituting lower wages for lost jobs – either by accepting lower wages at their current place of employment, or getting the boot and settling for lower wages elsewhere. A job is better than no job, of course, but a job with a lower wage isn’t nearly as good as a job with at the same or better wage.

Fifth, another reason for November’s job growth is that American consumers – whose spending accounts for about 70 percent of the economy – increased their spending. But this can’t continue because, as noted, wages are dropping. They spent more by cutting into their meager savings. Don’t expect this to last.

Finally, there’s the wild card of the rest of the global economy – the European debt crisis and the high likelihood of recession in Europe, the slowdown in China and India, slower growth in developing nations. Some of our jobs depend on exports, which will drop.

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Guest Post: Psychopathic Economics 101

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by D. Sherman Okst of Psychopathic Economics 101

Psychopathic Economics 101

Psychopaths flew financial weapons of mass destruction (derivatives) into the twin towers of our economy, the housing market and the stock market.  Ten trillion dollars of wealth imploded in a cloud of dust.

Ninety-nine percent of the economic experts – financial planners, economists, economic professors, brokers, and investors – missed the largest bubble in history as well as the systemic risk that the bubble posed.

The National Board of Economic Research (NBER) (who is responsible for declaring a recession) was 9 months late calling the worst recession since the Great Depression.

How Economics Were Hijacked 

I advocate that the larger story here isn’t derivatives or the Financial Crisis of “2008,” but instead how economics has been secretly hijacked.

When I began researching for the book I’m writing I had a premise: “Corporatocracy” had replaced capitalism.  That is true, but I realized the more important underlying fundamental was how corporatocracy came about.  Corporatocracy grew out of souless corporations being given human status even though their sole purpose was creating wealth for the shareholders.  Corporations themselves became uncaring individuals – many of them run by uncaring individuals.  Psychopaths to be blunt.

Research I conducted revealed why and how psychopaths captured economics, how this catastrophe was missed and what the ramifications will be.  For more on corporatocracy please read “Why We Are Totally Finished.”  There is also a super documentary called “The Corporation” which can be viewed off my blog Psychopathic Economics.

“Semiopaths” & Psychopaths

Psychopaths aren’t limited to seemingly nice people who invite you over for dinner, then cut you into pieces and serve your fresh innards on a plate.  The World Health Organization has a “Personality Diagnostic Checklist” that is used in conjunction with this work.  You’ll recognize it by the check marks.

Psychopaths used the following five weapons to take control of our global economy:

  1. Political Economic Capture.
  2. Scholarly Economic Capture.
  3. Statistical Economic Capture.
  4. Mainstream Media Economic Capture.
  5. Regulatory Economic Capture.

All but one of these, Regulatory Economic Capture, are new terms that I’ve identified.

Political Economic Capture 

Both parties have been captured.  Blaming each other’s party or swapping parties isn’t a solution because there is only one party and that is the ultra elite party.  If…
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When Doves Laugh: 4 Weeks Until The Quiet Coup In The Fed Gives QE3 A Green Light

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While the world continues to be hypnotically captivated with every word out of Europe, the ongoing fiasco in the insolvent socialist continent is a welcome diversion from our own issues here in the US, which as we noted yesterday, has not “decoupled” from the rest of the world’s woes but merely is “lagging.” After all the European recession is now guaranteed, and no matter how it is spun it will never amount to a positive GDP event for the US, even more when considering that the PBoC’s recent resumption of monetary loosening will take at least several quarters to be felt globally. But a lag to what? Why 2012 of course, and specifically the January 24-25, 2012 Fed statement when as SocGen pointed out the Fed is most likely to announce yet another $600 billion episode of quantitative easing. But why then? Why not at the December 13 meeting, the topic of Fed telegraph Jon Hilsenrath’s latest piece, according to which the Fed will soon emphasize that it will never hike rates and as a result collapse all refi activity because who wants to go into a 30-year fixed at 4% when it will be available at 2% 3 months later, and at 0% 6 months after that? Simple: the Fed’s balance of power is about to shift substantially. With under 30 days left in 2011, the current roster of 4 rotating voting Fed governors is about to be swept out, only to be replaced with 4 new ones. Yet as the chart below from SocGen shows, the rotation will probably be the most dramatic in Fed history as 3 die hard Hawks (and 1 dove) are eliminated only to be replaced with a panel which is almost exclusively Dovish. In fact, at the end of the day the only modest Hawk on the Fed’s voting committee will be Richmond Fed’s Jeffrey Lacker (the only member to vote against the drop in FX swap line rates), and even he in the past has shown his dovish wings. Which means that for all intents and purposes, the major delay in global events, and market uncertainty, merely has to last until the end of the year when the doves take over. Furthermore to anyone who will point out that in 2012…
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Tech & Energy FCF Yielders

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by South of Wall Street.

A few ideas from my Tech & Energy FCF screen.

Putin Loses Majority In Russian Elections As Communist Party Soars

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

With 70% of the votes counted in Russia’s parliamentary elections, something odd is happening: Putin’s United Russia party has seen a major drop in popularity from the two thirds constitutional majority it held over the past 4 years, and will likely not even have an absolute majority in parliament, forcing it to form a coalition government with less than 50% of the vote going its way. The vote comes at a sensitive time for Russia which has lately seen verbal escalation with NATO and the west, going so far as to put various radar installations on combat alert, and attempting to expand its zone of influence into Iran. As RIA Novosti reports, “Sunday’s vote was considered an important test for Putin ahead of the presidential election next March and analysts said the reduced support for United Russia increased the likelihood that Putin, who remains the most popular politician in Russia, may not win outright in the first round. “It will depend upon whom other parties nominate and how well they campaign,” political analyst Yevgeny Minchenko said. He added, however, that the mitigated outcome for United Russia would force the party accustomed to passing legislation without regard for support from others to negotiate and cooperate with competing political parties. “By all means, this is good for the development of political culture in Russia,” Minchenko said.” One thing is certain” the biggest winners from today’s turnout are the former Communsits, the CPRF party, which has about 20% of the vote, or a doubling in popularity by Russian widely becoming dissatisfied with the Putin approach to power.

More from Reuters: “Just 20 years ago, they seemed consigned to the dustbin of history. At Sunday’s parliamentary polls, Russia’s communists drew students, intellectuals, even some businessmen in forging an opposition to Vladimir Putin’s wounded United Russia party. The Communist Party (CPRF) for most Russians evokes images of bemedalled war veterans and the elderly poor deprived of pensions and left behind in a “New Russia” of glitzy indulgence. Large swathes of society have appeared beyond the reach of the red flag and hammer and sickle.” Ironically for many a vote for communism has become a vote against the corruption and authoritarianism many associated with the Putin control: “With sadness I remember how I passionately vowed to my grandfather I would…
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You Gotta Have Friends – Stock World Weekly

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by ilene.

You Gotta Have Friends – Stock World Weekly

Xcerpt from the Week Ahead Section:

Stocks enjoyed a strong, bullish run this week, thanks to the efforts of the world’s central bankers. 

Earlier in the week, Bruce Krasting discussed the ECB’s need to engage in “shock and awe” tactics and make central bank friends. On Wednesday, immediately after Bruce published On FX intervention and the ECB/SMP, the Central Banks announced their coordinated plan that launched the stock market higher (although the shock and awe decision may have been made on Monday). Bruce added an introduction, “Yikes!! I posted this and a few minutes later the Fed/other CBs announces a round of coordinated measures to assist the ECB. My point in this article was that the ECB has no friends, and that was the weakest link in their defense of the EU bond market. It seems they now have friends. We shall see how good these “friends” are…”

In the article, Bruce had written, “The ECB is in a bad position. The news flow and large supply have put them on the defensive. Defense is no way to run an intervention policy. At best, it’s slow grind to a loss…

When confronted with unstable markets where the instability is, by itself, undermining the broader economy, the first objective is to reestablish stability. There is only one way to do that in the short-term. The financial authorities must establish Two Way Risk back into the market. Ideally, the objective is to create as much risk in being long as the risk of being short. 

The ECB has failed to establish two-way risk. Virtually every (Italian, etc) bond that has been sold over the last few months has been a “good” sale. There has been no risk to selling, the only risk has been in buying. If the ECB wants to be successful, it must create a risk situation that is equally weighted. Call that shock and awe.” (On FX intervention and the ECB/SMP)

Friday was a reasonable time to take profits on at least some previous bullish trade ideas. Friday morning, Phil wrote, “I have very little to add – I just want to make sure this Alert goes out right away, so let’s just get back to cash and have a nice, relaxing weekend.
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Zero Hedge

Auto Shares Surge As Fiat, Renault Confirm Merger Talks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With President Trump in Japan for a state visit and most of Europe headed to the polls to vote in the quinquennial EU Parliamentary elections, there was enough news to keep market watchers occupied during what was supposed to be a quiet holiday weekend in the US. 

But on top of these political headlines, on Saturday afternoon, the news broke that Italian-American carmaker Fiat Chrysler had approached France's Renault with a merger proposal that would leave the shareholders of each carmaker with half of the combined company, in a tie-up that would create the world's third-largest au...

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Phil's Favorites

Trump and the problem with pardons


Trump and the problem with pardons

Courtesy of Andrew Bell, Indiana University

As a veteran, I was astonished by the recent news that President Trump may be considering pardons for U.S. military members accused or convicted of war crimes. But as a scholar who studies the U.S. military and combat ethics, I understand even more clearly the harmful long-term impact such pardons can have on the military.

My researc...

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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ... more from Insider

Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...

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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!

Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!

Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control


Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...

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DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University


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More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...

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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism


The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"



Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:


·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union


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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>