Archive for 2011

And Now, A Present: “Are The Brokers Broken” – A Reprise

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Often times we are asked “why does Zero Hedge prefer to provide information in piecemeal increments and isolated snapshots (of irregularity) rather than write comprehensive articles (or even a book) that explain, from beginning to end why everything is broken – the end?” There are two answers – a short and a long one. The short answer is that finance, more so than any other field, changes so rapidly that the nuances are always and constantly on the margin, which in turn is stable only for the period of time that it is observed, and then it becomes part of “technical analysis.” (Indeed, the Schrodinger wave function collapse is just as alive and well in finance as it is in the quantum arena). As such, we adhere to the paradigm describing the distinction between giving a man a fish and teaching a man to fish: we believe that it is far more useful to demonstrate all that ways in which the market (and global economy) works, or rather doesn’t, than engage in extended exercises of vanity, which serve as much to stroke the author’s ego, and demonstrate one’s knowledge of SAT words, as they do to elucidate the matter at hand. By sharing our own views of events as they transpire in real time, be they right or wrong, we hope to provide our readers with the “connect the dots” patchwork required to evaluate relevant financial events as they occur in real time, instead of describing them in the in vitro vacuum of moody brooding. (As for a book, we are more than confident enough “independent” bloggers out there will succumb to the very system their protest against, and pen a few hundred pages on the goal-seeked topic of their choosing – the last thing the vast upcoming book pyre needs is our own intellectual self-pleasuring). The long answer is far longer, and, ironically, deserves a post of its own. But this is neither the time nor the place. What then is the purpose of this post is to break away from our tradition, but also not to recreate the wheel, as many others find delight in doing. Instead, as a special present to our readers, we share the seminal analysis by Citigroup’s Matt King from September 5, 2008, titled “Are The Brokers Broken?” which…
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Edna

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Bruce Krasting.

At around this time over the past few years I’ve written about the posh holiday parties I went to. No luck this year. I went from the A-list to the Shit-list (I blame the blogging). So instead of eating fancy canapés and talking with very important people, I went and saw Edna.

Edna was born in 1918. She’ll be 94 years old in January. Her mother died young, she went to a home for children when she was eight. In 1936 the home went bust due to the depression and a shortage of donors. She has interesting stories of what it was like to live in Jersey City during the second depression of 1937. She remembers where she was when she learned that Pearl Harbor had been bombed. Her husband went to fight in Italy during WWII. She lived an average life, and enjoyed every minute of it.

Two years ago I got a call from an Emergency Room. Edna had arrived in an ambulance. She could not breathe and they were going to vent her. I thought it was over. Not the case. Five days in the hospital (steroids, oxygen, antibiotics and 24 hr. care) followed by twenty-one days in a rehab and she was back on her feet.

Edna’s medical problems were caused by old age. There is a valve that allows food and water to flow to the stomach, but blocks it from getting into the lungs. Edna’s did not work well. The result was "aspiration pneumonia". She had two failed operations operations to repair the valve.

There is a treatment for this. They poke a hole in the patients stomach, put in a tube and tie it to a bag that the patient wears on her on hip. Ensure gets fed to the patient via the bag. Nothing goes down the throat. Problem solved. Edna wanted no part of that.

Edna’s been to the emergency room/hospital a total of six times since that first episode. She averaged four days each time. She has had two operations and spent seven weeks in rehab.

The medical profession can truly work miracles these days. This woman should have been dead (at 92 years old) when she had her first episode. If this were 1981, she would died.

With…
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Stock World Weekly: Money for Nothing and Your Debt for Free

NEW: Elliott and Ilene are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here’s the latest edition of Stock World Weekly: Money for Nothing and Your Debt for Free 

Yes, we tried to make sense out of the ECB’s Long Term Refinance Operation. For Christmas, please give us your feedback in the comment section below. Merry Christmas Everyone!!





Merry Christmas & Happy Holidays to all

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Zero Hedge.

A contribution: 

http://alabamashakes.bandcamp.com/track/you-aint-alone

 

Merry and happy to everyone in the ZH family; thank you all. 





Merry Christmas &v Happy Holidays, to all

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Zero Hedge.

A contribution: 

http://alabamashakes.bandcamp.com/track/you-aint-alone

 

Merry and happy to everyone in the ZH family; thank you all. 





Interactive Mapping Of 2011′s Key (And Not So Key) Events

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The folks at mapsofworld.com have been kind enough to compile a list of the top events of 2011 broken down by country, coupled with a fully interactive drill down. Furthermore, they have compiled a list of the top 5 events of 2011 based on popular voting (open to anyone). We were surprised (or maybe not) to find that while in our little microcosm we focus on the nuances of the financial world, and occasionally branch out into its nexus of geopolitics, people in the real world appear to have a whole different set of priorities. Confirming this is the fact that 3 of the top 5 most important events are i) the recognition of LGBT rights by the UN; ii) the launch of Google Plus and iii) the 100th anniversary of the IBM – three developments that have received precisely zero coverage on Zero Hedge. At least the top two events are somewhat relevant to both the world and our readers, namely the Tunisian Revolution aka the Arab Spring, and the Japan Earthquake. Oddly enough such earthshaking events as the loss of the US’ AAA rating (which as documented here before led to the terminal break of the stock market), is barely in the top 5, while the “Greek Crisis” and the aftermath that is the European insolvency crisis, whose escalation in our humble opinion was the event of 2011, is relevant to exactly… nobody. And there you have this nation’s priorities in a nutshell.





Stratfor Hacked, 200GB Of Emails, Credit Cards Stolen, Client List Released, Includes MF Global, Rockefeller Foundation

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

This Christmas will not be a happy one for George Friedman (who incidentally was the focus of John Mauldin’s latest book promotion email blast) and his Stratfor Global Intelligence service, because as of a few hours ago, hacking collective Anonymous disclosed that not only has it hacked the Stratfor website (since confirmed by Friedman himself), but has also obtained the full client list of over 4000 individuals and corporations, including their credit cards (which supposedly have been used to make $1 million in “donations”), as well as over 200 GB of email correspondence. And since the leaked client list is the who is who of intelligence, and capital management, including such names as Goldman Sachs, the Rockefeller Foundation and, yep, MF Global, we are certain that not only Stratfor and its clients will be waiting with bated breath to see just what additional troves of information are unleashed, but virtually everyone else, in this very sensitive time from a geopolitical point of view. And incidentally, we can’t help but notice that Anonymous may have finally ventured into the foreign relations arena. We can only assume, for now, that this is not a formal (or informal) statement of allegiance with any specific ideology as otherwise the wargames in the Straits of Hormuz may soon be very inappropriately named (or halfway so).

Chronology of releases from AnonymousIRC starting early this afternoon:


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Intraday USDCNY Unchanged Since 2006

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Inspired by recent work at the China Economics Seminar, we were shocked at the recent shifts in USDCNY. While all has been calmly proceeding in the right direction from US perspectives with CNY appreciation (though maybe not fast enough for Chuck Schumer’s liking), under the surface there is what appears to be a fierce battle between market participants and the PBoC. By breaking down the cumulative shift in USDCNY into intraday ‘market/trading’ movements (from fixing to close) and interday ‘government-assisted’ movements (from prior close to fixing), we can draw some perspective on what the market is trying to do and what the government is doing. Evidently from the chart, the outward appearance that CNY appreciation is slowly but surely occurring (the green line) is misleading, the clear signal is a market trading the USD higher (helped by European angst) and a PBoC massively intervening.

 

 

Incredibly, since the fixings began consistently in Jan 2006, intraday cumulative moves are now exactly ZERO at the close on Friday (red line), with the entire move higher in CNY now accounted for over the past five years by the PBoC’s actions (blue line). Furthermore, the shifts of the last four months are on a scale we have not seen before making us wonder just how many USD are being sold out of Chinese reserves into the market to stabilize the CNY?





Corporate Insiders are Turning Neutral on the U.S. Stock Market

Courtesy of Benzinga.

 

As we enter a New Year, it is a good idea to review our stock selections and risk exposures.  It is well known that legal insider trading by top level corporate executives in their own firms can help provide useful investment signals (Seyhun 2000, Investment Intelligence from Insider Trading, MIT Press.)  Sustained insider buying in their own firms indicates a bullish signal while sustained insider selling indicates a bearish signal.  Insider trading patterns provide useful signals not only for individual stocks, but also for industry sectors as well as the aggregate stock market.

The historical average value of the insider buying index is around 34.  Above this level, I consider insider activity to be bullish.  Below this level, I consider insider activity to be bearish.  Insider trading patterns over the past six months indicate that insiders have regarded the European sovereign debt crisis and its potential impact on the U.S. market to be temporary.  As the stock prices took a dive during July and August of 2011, insiders have regarded the depressed levels of stock prices as a good buying opportunity.  Consequently, at a reading of 56 in August 2011, insider sentiment reached its highest level in over two years.  To find the previous high, one has to go back to March of 2009 when stock prices had reached a trough and insider buying rocketed to twice the usual levels. Index levels of 60 and above on insider sentiment around March of 2009 appeared to be extremely timely as Dow Jones Industrial Index has increased more than 80% since then. 

Since August 2011, however, insiders are gradually becoming less bullish.  While there is no evidence so far that they are worried about 2012, there are simply not increasing their stock market exposure.  As of December 2011, six-month insider signal is only slightly bullish, while a one-month insider signal at 33 is just neutral.

Looking at various market segments, insiders are still slightly bullish in small stocks, defined as those firms with a maximum market cap of $500 million.  In mid-cap and large cap stocks, insiders are again neutral to bearish.  It is also interesting to note that the small-cap Russell 2000 index has been lagging the larger cap stocks so far this year. …
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Don’t Mess With The Keynesians

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The compare and contrast discussions of Keynes and Hayek have wended their way over the last few years from learned academic texts to YouTube sensationalist rap videos. We have to say we have our preference among those two extremes. However, in a recent interview with Nicholas Wapshott of Reuters, INETeconomics pulls back the veil a little more of the borrow-and-spend short-termist optimism of Keynes versus the ‘if it can go wrong, it will’ pragmatist pessimism of Hayek. Unfortunately, it seems we are rapidly unlearning a number of the lessons of the eternal optimist – fixing the world right now in favor of solving the underlying problems and furthermore as Wapshott notes, civilization is a lot more fragile than one can imagine. Starting from the perspective that Hayek was engaged by the LSE to take on the establishment Cambridgian, their very different personal experiences of post-war, post-depression life set them looking for solutions from very different perspectives. While their public arguments were seen as ungentlemanly at the time, though published in journals, it became clear that Hayek faced an uphill battle, and perhaps only now, thanks to the collapsing capabilities (or willingness) of governments to borrow-and-spend, are we able to ‘mess with the Keynesians’. While avoiding extreme politics and authoritarianism may be a common-sense raison d’etre, the ongoing devaluation wars could perhaps be as capable of pushing the world to these limits as any non-Keynesian solution ever was.

 

The full five-part interview can be found here.





 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

What is at stake in the Strait of Hormuz?

 

What is at stake in the Strait of Hormuz?

Courtesy of Rockford Weitz, Tufts University

Tensions between the United States, Iran and other countries are flaring again in the Strait of Hormuz.

There are competing explanations for what’s going on in the narrow seaway through which 21% of the world’s crude oil currently passes.

Most of the reports of ...



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Zero Hedge

Wall Street Trading Desks Suffer Worst First Half In Over A Decade

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With Morgan Stanley reporting Q2 results yesterday, the first half earnings of all "big 5" US banks are now public, and when it comes to sales and trading they are nothing short of a disaster.

With the S&P at or near all time highs, institutional traders have, paradoxically, been increasingly moving to the "sidelines" for much of the second quarter as Wall Street trading desks posted their worst first half to a year in a decade, according to ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Is Crude Oil Sending a Bearish Message to the Stock Market?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Crude Oil (NYSEARCA: USO) and the S&P 500 Index (INDEXSP: .INX) have peaked and bottomed together several times in the past 9 months. See points (1) and (2) on the chart above.

In summary, the correlation between Oil and the stock market has been quite interesting and demands investors attention.

Crude Oil has been creating lower highs of late and is breaking price support at (3).

If the correlation remains the same, Crude Oil may very well be sending a bearish message to stocks.

Tricky spot for active investors – careful here.

...

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Insider Scoop

10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Monday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

  • Goldman Sachs boosted the price target for Applied Materials, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) from $48 to $56. Applied Materials shares closed at $47.81 on Friday.
  • Citigroup raised the price target for Intercontinental Exchange Inc (NYSE: ICE) from $92 to $99. Intercontinental Exchange shares closed at $90.77 on Friday.
  • Nomura cut the price target on LyondellBasell Industries NV (NYSE: LYB) from $107 to $93. LyondellBasell shares closed at $85.92 on Friday.
  • ...


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Chart School

RTT Plus Chart Book (Sneak Peak)

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

The magic of support and resistance channel lines and how they direct price. Here are some chart disclosed to members via the RTT Plus service. All charts are a few weeks old. 


XAU bound by parallel channel lines.


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Newmont Mining support from Gann Angles.



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US Dollar index (DXY) dominate cycle ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Suddenly Panic-Bid, Bitcoin Back Above $10k

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Following further selling pressure overnight, someone (or more than one) has decided to buy-the-dip in cryptos this morning, sending Bitcoin (and most of the altcoins) soaring...

A sea of green...

Source: Coin360

Bitcoin surged back above $10,000...

Ethereum bounced off suppo...



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Biotech

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing - but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

Reminder: We're is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing – but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

A telomere age test kit from Telomere Diagnostics Inc. and saliva. collection kit from 23andMe. Anna Hoychuk/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Patricia Opresko, University of Pittsburgh and Elise Fouquerel, ...



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ValueWalk

Professor Shubha Ghosh On The Current State Of Gene Editing

 

Professor Shubha Ghosh On The Current State Of Gene Editing

Courtesy of Jacob Wolinsky, ValueWalk

ValueWalk’s Q&A session with Professor Shubha Ghosh, a professor of law and the director of the Syracuse Intellectual Property Law Institute. In this interview, Professor Ghosh discusses his background, the Human Genome Project, the current state of gene editing, 3D printing for organ operations, and gene editing regulation.

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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