Archive for 2011

And Now, A Present: “Are The Brokers Broken” – A Reprise

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Often times we are asked “why does Zero Hedge prefer to provide information in piecemeal increments and isolated snapshots (of irregularity) rather than write comprehensive articles (or even a book) that explain, from beginning to end why everything is broken – the end?” There are two answers – a short and a long one. The short answer is that finance, more so than any other field, changes so rapidly that the nuances are always and constantly on the margin, which in turn is stable only for the period of time that it is observed, and then it becomes part of “technical analysis.” (Indeed, the Schrodinger wave function collapse is just as alive and well in finance as it is in the quantum arena). As such, we adhere to the paradigm describing the distinction between giving a man a fish and teaching a man to fish: we believe that it is far more useful to demonstrate all that ways in which the market (and global economy) works, or rather doesn’t, than engage in extended exercises of vanity, which serve as much to stroke the author’s ego, and demonstrate one’s knowledge of SAT words, as they do to elucidate the matter at hand. By sharing our own views of events as they transpire in real time, be they right or wrong, we hope to provide our readers with the “connect the dots” patchwork required to evaluate relevant financial events as they occur in real time, instead of describing them in the in vitro vacuum of moody brooding. (As for a book, we are more than confident enough “independent” bloggers out there will succumb to the very system their protest against, and pen a few hundred pages on the goal-seeked topic of their choosing – the last thing the vast upcoming book pyre needs is our own intellectual self-pleasuring). The long answer is far longer, and, ironically, deserves a post of its own. But this is neither the time nor the place. What then is the purpose of this post is to break away from our tradition, but also not to recreate the wheel, as many others find delight in doing. Instead, as a special present to our readers, we share the seminal analysis by Citigroup’s Matt King from September 5, 2008, titled “Are The Brokers Broken?” which…
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Edna

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Bruce Krasting.

At around this time over the past few years I’ve written about the posh holiday parties I went to. No luck this year. I went from the A-list to the Shit-list (I blame the blogging). So instead of eating fancy canapés and talking with very important people, I went and saw Edna.

Edna was born in 1918. She’ll be 94 years old in January. Her mother died young, she went to a home for children when she was eight. In 1936 the home went bust due to the depression and a shortage of donors. She has interesting stories of what it was like to live in Jersey City during the second depression of 1937. She remembers where she was when she learned that Pearl Harbor had been bombed. Her husband went to fight in Italy during WWII. She lived an average life, and enjoyed every minute of it.

Two years ago I got a call from an Emergency Room. Edna had arrived in an ambulance. She could not breathe and they were going to vent her. I thought it was over. Not the case. Five days in the hospital (steroids, oxygen, antibiotics and 24 hr. care) followed by twenty-one days in a rehab and she was back on her feet.

Edna’s medical problems were caused by old age. There is a valve that allows food and water to flow to the stomach, but blocks it from getting into the lungs. Edna’s did not work well. The result was "aspiration pneumonia". She had two failed operations operations to repair the valve.

There is a treatment for this. They poke a hole in the patients stomach, put in a tube and tie it to a bag that the patient wears on her on hip. Ensure gets fed to the patient via the bag. Nothing goes down the throat. Problem solved. Edna wanted no part of that.

Edna’s been to the emergency room/hospital a total of six times since that first episode. She averaged four days each time. She has had two operations and spent seven weeks in rehab.

The medical profession can truly work miracles these days. This woman should have been dead (at 92 years old) when she had her first episode. If this were 1981, she would died.

With…
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Stock World Weekly: Money for Nothing and Your Debt for Free

NEW: Elliott and Ilene are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here’s the latest edition of Stock World Weekly: Money for Nothing and Your Debt for Free 

Yes, we tried to make sense out of the ECB’s Long Term Refinance Operation. For Christmas, please give us your feedback in the comment section below. Merry Christmas Everyone!!





Merry Christmas & Happy Holidays to all

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Zero Hedge.

A contribution: 

http://alabamashakes.bandcamp.com/track/you-aint-alone

 

Merry and happy to everyone in the ZH family; thank you all. 





Merry Christmas &v Happy Holidays, to all

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Zero Hedge.

A contribution: 

http://alabamashakes.bandcamp.com/track/you-aint-alone

 

Merry and happy to everyone in the ZH family; thank you all. 





Interactive Mapping Of 2011′s Key (And Not So Key) Events

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The folks at mapsofworld.com have been kind enough to compile a list of the top events of 2011 broken down by country, coupled with a fully interactive drill down. Furthermore, they have compiled a list of the top 5 events of 2011 based on popular voting (open to anyone). We were surprised (or maybe not) to find that while in our little microcosm we focus on the nuances of the financial world, and occasionally branch out into its nexus of geopolitics, people in the real world appear to have a whole different set of priorities. Confirming this is the fact that 3 of the top 5 most important events are i) the recognition of LGBT rights by the UN; ii) the launch of Google Plus and iii) the 100th anniversary of the IBM – three developments that have received precisely zero coverage on Zero Hedge. At least the top two events are somewhat relevant to both the world and our readers, namely the Tunisian Revolution aka the Arab Spring, and the Japan Earthquake. Oddly enough such earthshaking events as the loss of the US’ AAA rating (which as documented here before led to the terminal break of the stock market), is barely in the top 5, while the “Greek Crisis” and the aftermath that is the European insolvency crisis, whose escalation in our humble opinion was the event of 2011, is relevant to exactly… nobody. And there you have this nation’s priorities in a nutshell.





Stratfor Hacked, 200GB Of Emails, Credit Cards Stolen, Client List Released, Includes MF Global, Rockefeller Foundation

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

This Christmas will not be a happy one for George Friedman (who incidentally was the focus of John Mauldin’s latest book promotion email blast) and his Stratfor Global Intelligence service, because as of a few hours ago, hacking collective Anonymous disclosed that not only has it hacked the Stratfor website (since confirmed by Friedman himself), but has also obtained the full client list of over 4000 individuals and corporations, including their credit cards (which supposedly have been used to make $1 million in “donations”), as well as over 200 GB of email correspondence. And since the leaked client list is the who is who of intelligence, and capital management, including such names as Goldman Sachs, the Rockefeller Foundation and, yep, MF Global, we are certain that not only Stratfor and its clients will be waiting with bated breath to see just what additional troves of information are unleashed, but virtually everyone else, in this very sensitive time from a geopolitical point of view. And incidentally, we can’t help but notice that Anonymous may have finally ventured into the foreign relations arena. We can only assume, for now, that this is not a formal (or informal) statement of allegiance with any specific ideology as otherwise the wargames in the Straits of Hormuz may soon be very inappropriately named (or halfway so).

Chronology of releases from AnonymousIRC starting early this afternoon:


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Intraday USDCNY Unchanged Since 2006

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Inspired by recent work at the China Economics Seminar, we were shocked at the recent shifts in USDCNY. While all has been calmly proceeding in the right direction from US perspectives with CNY appreciation (though maybe not fast enough for Chuck Schumer’s liking), under the surface there is what appears to be a fierce battle between market participants and the PBoC. By breaking down the cumulative shift in USDCNY into intraday ‘market/trading’ movements (from fixing to close) and interday ‘government-assisted’ movements (from prior close to fixing), we can draw some perspective on what the market is trying to do and what the government is doing. Evidently from the chart, the outward appearance that CNY appreciation is slowly but surely occurring (the green line) is misleading, the clear signal is a market trading the USD higher (helped by European angst) and a PBoC massively intervening.

 

 

Incredibly, since the fixings began consistently in Jan 2006, intraday cumulative moves are now exactly ZERO at the close on Friday (red line), with the entire move higher in CNY now accounted for over the past five years by the PBoC’s actions (blue line). Furthermore, the shifts of the last four months are on a scale we have not seen before making us wonder just how many USD are being sold out of Chinese reserves into the market to stabilize the CNY?





Corporate Insiders are Turning Neutral on the U.S. Stock Market

Courtesy of Benzinga.

 

As we enter a New Year, it is a good idea to review our stock selections and risk exposures.  It is well known that legal insider trading by top level corporate executives in their own firms can help provide useful investment signals (Seyhun 2000, Investment Intelligence from Insider Trading, MIT Press.)  Sustained insider buying in their own firms indicates a bullish signal while sustained insider selling indicates a bearish signal.  Insider trading patterns provide useful signals not only for individual stocks, but also for industry sectors as well as the aggregate stock market.

The historical average value of the insider buying index is around 34.  Above this level, I consider insider activity to be bullish.  Below this level, I consider insider activity to be bearish.  Insider trading patterns over the past six months indicate that insiders have regarded the European sovereign debt crisis and its potential impact on the U.S. market to be temporary.  As the stock prices took a dive during July and August of 2011, insiders have regarded the depressed levels of stock prices as a good buying opportunity.  Consequently, at a reading of 56 in August 2011, insider sentiment reached its highest level in over two years.  To find the previous high, one has to go back to March of 2009 when stock prices had reached a trough and insider buying rocketed to twice the usual levels. Index levels of 60 and above on insider sentiment around March of 2009 appeared to be extremely timely as Dow Jones Industrial Index has increased more than 80% since then. 

Since August 2011, however, insiders are gradually becoming less bullish.  While there is no evidence so far that they are worried about 2012, there are simply not increasing their stock market exposure.  As of December 2011, six-month insider signal is only slightly bullish, while a one-month insider signal at 33 is just neutral.

Looking at various market segments, insiders are still slightly bullish in small stocks, defined as those firms with a maximum market cap of $500 million.  In mid-cap and large cap stocks, insiders are again neutral to bearish.  It is also interesting to note that the small-cap Russell 2000 index has been lagging the larger cap stocks so far this year. …
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Don’t Mess With The Keynesians

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The compare and contrast discussions of Keynes and Hayek have wended their way over the last few years from learned academic texts to YouTube sensationalist rap videos. We have to say we have our preference among those two extremes. However, in a recent interview with Nicholas Wapshott of Reuters, INETeconomics pulls back the veil a little more of the borrow-and-spend short-termist optimism of Keynes versus the ‘if it can go wrong, it will’ pragmatist pessimism of Hayek. Unfortunately, it seems we are rapidly unlearning a number of the lessons of the eternal optimist – fixing the world right now in favor of solving the underlying problems and furthermore as Wapshott notes, civilization is a lot more fragile than one can imagine. Starting from the perspective that Hayek was engaged by the LSE to take on the establishment Cambridgian, their very different personal experiences of post-war, post-depression life set them looking for solutions from very different perspectives. While their public arguments were seen as ungentlemanly at the time, though published in journals, it became clear that Hayek faced an uphill battle, and perhaps only now, thanks to the collapsing capabilities (or willingness) of governments to borrow-and-spend, are we able to ‘mess with the Keynesians’. While avoiding extreme politics and authoritarianism may be a common-sense raison d’etre, the ongoing devaluation wars could perhaps be as capable of pushing the world to these limits as any non-Keynesian solution ever was.

 

The full five-part interview can be found here.





 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

What kind of Brexit will Britain now 'get done' after Boris Johnson's thumping election win?

 

What kind of Brexit will Britain now ‘get done’ after Boris Johnson’s thumping election win?

Courtesy of Tom Quinn, University of Essex

The Conservatives’ victory in the UK general election is at once a decisive moment of clarity and a harbinger of uncertainty. Prime Minister Boris Johnson called the election with a pledge to “get Brexit done”, and with his newly-won parliamentary majority, he is now in a position to do just that.

The shape of Brexit has already been defined by the withdrawal agreement Johnson negotiated with the EU in October. It en...



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Zero Hedge

Bianco: Mom-And-Pop Aren't The Ones Getting Suckered By FOMO

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Jim Bianco via Bloomberg.com,

The current bull market is historic. According to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., it’s been 10.7 years since the last 20% correction, the longest such run in more than 120 years. In 2019 alone, the S&P 500 Index has surged more than 25%, with recent gains being attributed in part to investors chasin...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Euro Breakout In Play? Gold Bulls Sure Hope So!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The Euro has spent much of the past 2 years trading in a down-trend.

Though precious metals like Gold have fared well, this has been a bit of a headwind because it means that the US Dollar has remained firm.

Big Test In Play for the Euro

The Euro is testing a confluence of important support just as the downtrend is narrowing and ready for a “break”. That support includes lower falling wedge support and the Euro’s long term up-trend support line (see points 1 and 2).

If the Euro can succeed in breaking out at (3), it would be bullis...



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Insider Scoop

8 Healthcare Stocks Moving In Friday's Pre-Market Session

Courtesy of Benzinga

Gainers
  • Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: SRPT) stock surged 36.4% to $137.00 during Friday's pre-market session. The market value of their outstanding shares is at $6.1 billion. The most recent rating by Janney Capital, on December 13, is at Buy, with a price target of $175.00.
  • GlaxoSmithKline, Inc. (NYSE: GSK) shares surged 1.1% to $46.44. The market value of their outstanding shares is at $112.9 billion. According to the most recent rating by UBS, on November 21, the current rating is at Buy.
  • AstraZeneca, Inc. (NYSE: ...


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Digital Currencies

Three Men Arrested In NJ For Running Alleged $722 Million Crypto Ponzi Scheme

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Kollen Post via CoinTelegraph.com,

United States authorities in New Jersey have announced the arrest of three men who are accused of defrauding investors of over $722 million as part of alleged crypto ponzie scheme BitClub Network, per a Dec. 10 announcement from the Dep...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Chart Shows the Fed Ramping Up Not QE - Funding Almost All Treasury Issuance

 

Chart Shows the Fed Ramping Up Not QE – Funding Almost All Treasury Issuance

Courtesy of Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner 

The Fed is ramping up “Not QE” .

The Fed bought $2.2 billion in notes today in its POMO, “not QE,” operations. Actually $2.15 billion because they sold back a whole $50 million. Must have been a little glitch in the force.

This brings the Fed’s total outright purchases of Treasuries to $170 billion since it started Not QE, on September 17.

It also did $107 billion in gross new repo loans to Primary Dealers to buy Tre...



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Chart School

Silver stock taking the sector higher

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

As the US economy begins to show late cycle characteristics like: GDP slowing, higher inflation, higher wage costs, CEO confidence slump. 
Previous Post: Gold Stocks Review

The big players in the market are looking for the next swing off good value lows. This means more money is finding it way into the gold and silver sector, and it is said gold and silver stocks actually lead the metal prices. The cycle below shows prices are ready to move in the months ahead (older chart re posted).




 

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Members' Corner

Sacha Baron Cohen Uses ADL Speech to Tear Apart Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook

 

Sacha Baron Cohen Uses ADL Speech to Tear Apart Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook

By Matt Wilstein

Excerpt:

Sacha Baron Cohen accepted the International Leadership Award at the Anti-Defamation League’s Never is Now summit on anti-Semitism and hate Thursday. And the comedian and actor used his keynote speech to single out the one Jewish-American who he believes is doing the most to facilitate “hate and violence” in America: Facebook founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg.

He began with a joke at the Trump administration’s expense. “Thank you, ADL, for this recognition and your work in fighting racism, hate and bigotry,” Baron Cohen said, according to his prepared...



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The Technical Traders

VIX Warns Of Imminent Market Correction

Courtesy of Technical Traders

The VIX is warning that a market peak may be setting up in the global markets and that investors should be cautious of the extremely low price in the VIX. These extremely low prices in the VIX are typically followed by some type of increased volatility in the markets.

The US Federal Reserve continues to push an easy money policy and has recently begun acquiring more dept allowing a deeper move towards a Quantitative Easing stance. This move, along with investor confidence in the US markets, has prompted early warning signs that the market has reached near extreme levels/peaks. 

Vix Value Drops Before Monthly Expiration

When the VIX falls to levels below 12~13, this typically v...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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