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Miracle Monday – Putin Wins with 99.7% of the Vote

99.7% – in Chechnya!

That's right, the very place where Putin brutally put down civil unrest and the same place where they still launch terrorist attacks on Russian targets apparently LOVES Putin.  All of Russia "loves" Putin as the former KGB Boss turned Russian Boss sailed to another Presidential victory.  Nationally, Putin scored about 63% of the vote with his worst showing in Moscow, where just 48.7% voted for him but, unlike the US, Russians choose between 5 parties so 48.7% is pretty good while 99.7% is INcredible (as in NOT credible)!

So it's "meet the new boss, same as the old boss" in Russia this morning and before you think "that can't happen here" – perhaps you should consider how our own propaganda networks covered this election.  Here's a video of Fox (of course) showing video of a "violent rally against Putin" complete with fire bombs, riot police, etc.  

Only it isn't Russia – it's Greece.  Fox knows their viewers are so gullible, they don't even bother to edit out the Greek letters on the bank in the background because, as any Fox viewer knows – Russian, Greek – all the same nasty unAmerican languages.  

CNN is no better, showing a soccer rally and narrating it as violent protests against Putin (end of same video).  The fact that these deceptions aren't considered major news in THIS country let's you know how dangerously close we are to seeing one of our own candidates getting 99.7% of the vote one day as one group of thugs or another consolidates their hold on our Government and our Media

So happy Monday to you!  It was a pretty boring weekend so not much to report other than the Eurozone PMI fell 2% in February to 49.3 (contracting) while China's Feb Service PMI dropped 9%, into negative territory at 48.4 (contracting).  China also lowered their GDP target by 6%, from 8% to 7.5% as Wen Jiabao says "the nation needs to shift to a more sustainable and efficient economic model."

Hmm, China's Premier says their growth is unsustainable – don't worry folks, move along – nothing to see here….  Unwilling to ignore the situation is Credit Suisse's Dong Tao, who says The commodity super-cycle underpinned by China has drawn to a close as Chinese commodity needs have peaked as the nation transitions to domestic consumption and away from exports and infrastructure building as a driver of the economy.  

"In our view, the golden age of infrastructure investment is behind us now, the golden age of the housing boom is behind us, the golden age of export is behind us, and the golden age of policy stimulus is behind us." 

This was not good news for oil, which dipped to $105.50 overnight and gold, which fell to $1,695 as well as silver, which touched $34 in overnight trading (we were short – see "Fake News Friday" and "Threatening Thursday").  This morning, as we expected in Member Chat, the Dollar is being taken back down from 79.55 to goose the Futures so we should be back to Friday's closing levels by the time the show starts at 9:30 but, after that, I'm not expecting a good day.  

Oil prices must be in trouble because they are releasing the TBoone on CNBC this morning.  David Fry sees USO topping out here at $42 and, as I mentioned, we went short USO with the April $40 puts, which we caught on Thursday's fake news spike at $1.08 and finished Friday at $1.45 (up 34%).  We're hoping to revisit that rising 22 dma at about $38 as we draw closer to the April contract expiration on Wednesday, the 21st.

A lot of that depends on whether or not Iran behaves themselves.  Our friend,
Ahmedinajad's party suffered a humiliating defeat in the elections this weekend but he remains President until 2013, yet with very little actual support left (ie. lame duck).  My comment to Members Saturday morning is worth repeating as Iran will shape much of the month of March:  

Now the focus will shift to who the likely President will be in 2013. The new Parliament comes in in June and I can't imagine an attack until we at least hear what they have to say. For Iran, it would be an excellent time to extend an olive branch – it's even possible for them to impeach Ahmadinadjad now so he doesn't really have the option of cranking up the rhetoric between now and then unless he wants to hang himself, HOWEVER, he may start a war on the assumption that he can convince people not to change horses during one – that's still a possibility but only stays with him through June. 

At the moment, the NYMEX strip is fairly crowded, with 251,000,000 April barrels that have to be rolled into what is already 406M barrels in the next 3 months – this is a very dangerous situation for the longs, who have to get rid of about 20M barrels worth of contracts per day for the next 12 days and it's not likely they can keep the fear factor high enough to unload that many barrels over $105.  

 

Click for
Chart
Current Session Prior Day Opt's
Open High Low Last Time Set Chg Vol Set Op Int
Apr'12 106.75 107.29 105.50 106.96 09:01
Mar 05
 

-
0.26 45509 106.70 251263 Call Put
May'12 107.14 107.71 105.94 107.40 09:01
Mar 05
 

-
0.23 11604 107.17 162261 Call Put
Jun'12 107.90 108.07 106.38 107.85 09:01
Mar 05
 

-
0.21 9927 107.64 154542 Call Put
Jul'12 107.98 108.38 106.67 108.11 09:01
Mar 05
 

-
0.15 3661 107.96 89897 Call Put

Of course, we do have summer driving season kicking off at the end of may for the Holiday weekend so hope may spring eternal, at least through the end of April, which is what happened last year until the first week of May, when oil fell from $114.83 to $95 (17%) in a week. We figure we'll get that drop eventually and, until then, we're happy to just keep rolling our puts along to stay in position to take advantage when it comes

It's difficult to know when the right time will be but, if you keep hanging out in the right place – then the odds of you being in the right place at the right time become much better!  

The current risk/return profile of the S&P 500 belongs in a "Who's who of awful times to invest," writes John Hussman, comparing today to 1972-73, summer 1987, and a number of peak spots post-1998. "A breakdown of the market from this range has been deferred only through repeated and extraordinary central bank actions."   ING's Paul Zernsky, on the other hand, thinks the S&P's 14.1 p/e ratio is still a good deal (I detailed how these figures are misleading last week).   

We're trying to stay neutral on the subject this week and just follow our levels but these is nothing I read over the weekend that made my change my overall view that the market has run well ahead of itself on inflated expectations and is due for a correction.  As I said to Members last week, I'm targeting 750 (down 6%) on the Russell by the end of the month, which means (/TF – Russell Futures) are a great short below that 800 line if I'm right and oil (/CL) of course below $107 is very playable of this morning's BS pump-job as well. 


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  1. re Putin pictured with rifle
     
    Meanwhile, over in England, Robin Hood turns in his grave.
     
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2108829/Prince-Charles-trying-hand-paintball-range.html


  2. Phil/Putin

     
    Not to worry….he like us. 
     
    As always, it's BTFD's until it doesn't work anymore.


  3. More required reading for AAPL players:   http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2012/03/05/smart-move-is-selling-apple-stock-on-ipad-announcement/?partner=yahootix
    My take on this week's AAPL event is that if only the iPad 3 is announced we may see a temporary uptick in AAPL, which will then retrace during the remainder of this month.  Then it will ramp up again in April in expectation of earnings.  If there is something NEW announced this week, then the stock will rocket.   If you are playing AAPL this week you will have to be either nimble, or in cash.    I plan to be a bit of both.   Stay tuned. 


  4. Oil lines

    R3 – 108.07
    R2 – 107.68
    R1 – 107.30
    PP – 106.9
    S1 – 106.51
    S2 – 106.12
    S3 – 105.73

    As usual, Monday's lines are a little suspect as they rely on Sunday's overnight prices!


  5. 5KP/Phil,All
     
    I too am grateful for the 5KP (ideal for my small IRA).  I do not expect to be spoon-fed.  Hope to see it continue…just my 2c.


  6. As a follow up to the CoT oil chart I posted last week, here are some comments from the FT:

    http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/03/05/908661/managed-money-goes-long-oil/

    In the most recent week, the physical trade was net short just 61 million barrels (Chart 2). If hedge funds are at or near record long, it is not because the physical trade wants to be short. Instead, the other side of the hedge fund longs is dominated by banks and other swap dealers. In the most recent week, swap dealers’ net short position crept above 400 million barrels for the first time. As the net short position of the physical trade has shrunk, swap dealers have emerged as the overwhelming counterparties for the hedge funds and other investors. Swap dealers’ net short position is more than a third higher than before the flash crash, when it was just 287 million barrels. Swap dealers now have almost 2.4 short positions for every long (excluding spreading positions), the highest short ratio since the CFTC begins in 2006.

    Something has to give…


  7. Who knew this could happen:

    http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/03/05/908461/time-for-position-limits-on-vix-futures/

     

    To be honest, our initial reaction here was “holy cow!” For all intents and purposes, this small handful of ETFs effectively is the market for short-term VIX futures. And that’s actually more of a problem than you might even think.

    Because most of the products need to rebalance daily—pro-cyclically—this means there’ll always be buyers on the days when the VIX is up, and sellers when the VIX is down. This has the effect of making VIX futures more volatile.


  8. Jim "BRIC" O'Neil spells out which indicators he watches:

    http://www.businessinsider.com/jim-oneill-reliable-economic-indicators-2012-3

     

    There are some indicators which are simply more powerful in their reliability than others, as well as having predictability in shores beyond their own. In my view, the Korean trade data, US job claims, the US ISM report and its new orders and inventory component, the Euro area business and consumer confidence surveys, especially the German IFO, are the key numbers I look for each month. I do find myself often wondering whether one misses something from the Growth Market world, but if you throw in a couple of key Chinese monthly statistics, their monetary data, PMI, trade and monthly retail sales numbers in particular, then you kind of have most of what you need.

    Then, the rest of time can be spent thinking about policies, both monetary and fiscal, as well as structural and supply side issues, and keeping ones eyes and ears open for all sorts of interesting anecdotes.


  9. GMTA!


  10. Some notes on China:

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-not-so-miraculous-recovery-2012-03-05

    This is a pretty unreal number:

    The efficiency of Chinese investment has fallen. It now takes around $6-$8 of debt to create $1 of Chinese GDP, up from around $1-$2 around 20 years ago, well above the $4-$5 debt needed to create $1 of GDP just before the financial crisis in the U.S.


  11. Yahoo is planning Major layoffs.  Maybe a good play to go long off?
     
    Such moves by Thompson is likely to hearten Wall Street, boost its stock and perhaps temporarily assuage its noisy activist shareholder Daniel Loeb.
    http://allthingsd.com/20120305/yahoos-new-ceo-preps-major-restructuring-including-significant-layoffs/


  12. AAPL portfolio:   Order placed STC 5 of the April 525s at 39 , and STC 5 at 40…just in case we get an unexpected pop.


  13. Stj – looking at the USO position in the 25K portfolio – are the strike and # contracts flipped? 
    Options        Stock  Strike #
    Apr 12 Put USO         20       40


  14. Good morning,

     

    IWM    79.60,  79.82,  80.17,  80.46,  81.06,  81.41,  81.69,  82.00  and  82.41


  15. Closed APR 500c AAPL



  16. 25KP / Yshenhar – The strike was wrong, thanks. But we have 40 contracts.


  17. All Members you might have missed my write from yesterday Mar 4 7.19 PM love to hear your comments



  18. Good morning stjeanluc….missing from the AAPL portfolio are 20 April 525 calls purchase Friday  at 3:52  for 35.70.  (see Friday's 3:55 post)   Thanks. 


  19. Phil – I have bolded and boxed where we are now (rounding off when appropriate). I have deleted the -100% column but added a Flat column. Also, let me know if the notes row under the DMND positions is what you want to add the notes you want.

    Also, for the BCS I am using the maximum value to track progress, but do you want me to use the cost for the percentage calculations. It is not as "goal" oriented.


  20. I know, I'm supposed to be agnostic, but………………..

     


  21. Sorry Lflan, I skipped all your comments after you mentioned you were off to the slopes… I guess you trade from the ski lift!


  22. Update AAPL portfolio…


  23. stjeanluc…..truth is I'd rather trade than ski, so my body starts moving towards the mountains but my mind stays on the markets, and thank goodness for the iPad so I can trade on the way (my wife drives). 


  24. Good morning!  

    See end of post above for Futures plays (RUT and Oil).  We're pretty short still in the $25KP so just waiting to see what's what and we hear from Fisher at 1:20 on "The State of the Economy" with Factory Orders and ISM Services both hitting us at 10.  

    Don't forget it's auction week and that means Dollar up, TLT up, market down is most likely scenario into the 10-year (Weds) and 30-year (Thurs) auctions anyway so not a bullish week expected and VERY IMPRESSIVE if the S&P holds 1,360 this week so we'll be bailing on March short plays if we'd not down nicely on Weds.  

    More crap from Greece and the rest of Europe still to come but the real concern will be China as more and more analysts take a more critical look at their economy.  The whole World is looking for our economy to save them – does it seem likely to you?  

    At the open: Dow -0.13% to 12961. S&P -0.2% to 1367. Nasdaq -0.20% to 2970.

    Treasurys: 30-year -0.13%. 10-yr -0.08%. 5-yr -0.07%.

    Commodities: Crude +0.33% to $107.06. Gold -0.15% to $1707.15.

    Currencies: Euro +0.2% vs. dollar. Yen -0.38%. Pound -0.22%.

    Market preview: China spooks European and U.S. markets by cutting its growth target, sending S&P benchmark futures -0.2% premarket. Fears of a Greek default and weak PMI data are also adding to the pessimism. However, early losses have eased, indicating that investors are looking to buy on the dips. Cotton jumps after India bans exports with immediate effect. Later: Factory orders, ISM non-manufacturing, Fed's Fisher

    A 4.3 magnitude earthquake hits the San Francisco Bay Area. Update at 8:48: The USGS downgrades the earthquake to a 4.0.

    Eurozone January retail sales rise 0.3%, and are flat on a Y/Y basis vs. expectations of -0.1% and -1.6%. "The series tends to be rather volatile from month to month, so we prefer to look at the trend," says BNP's Ken Wattret. Over the quarter ended in January, sales -0.8%, the worst read since spring 2009.

    India, the world's No. 2 producer of cotton, bans all cotton exports, effective immediately. No explanation of the embargo has been offered. Cotton futures jump 4.5% to $92.23.

    The S&P 500 trades for 14.1x earnings after more than doubling since March 2009 to an almost four-year high, but Bloomberg calculates that valuations are lower than at all 34 peaks since 1989. “Stocks have just gotten too cheap," ING's Paul Zemsky says. After worrying about a Chinese hard landing, a U.S. double dip and a disintegrating Europe, "the worst risks have passed."

    Far from using cheap ECB money to fund governments, large EU banks like Barclays (BCS), Lloyds (LLG), and Credit Agricole (CRARY.PK) are having their subsidiaries in the peripheryborrow to fund themselves so the parents can stop shoveling money in. "It doesn't signal confidence," says Pimco's Philippe Bodereau.

    U.K. short-term interest rate futures - short sterling - experience a rare, mild sell off following a RBS note on the "fragility of the current policy equilibrium." RBS says it's reasonable to predict a "significant minority" of the BoE voting for a August 2012 rate hike. It would be quite a turnaround from current discussions of whether to do more QE. 

    "There are buyers that lurk everywhere," says RBS bond strategist William O’Donnell, making the Treasury market sound like a cheap horror flick. Foreigners hold a record $5T after increasing their holdings 13% last year. The problem for cash-rich investors is the shrinking supply of top-rated assets, not that the U.S. is 100% AAA anymore. 

    Greek finmin Venizelos takes to the airwaves urging Greek citizens to return deposits to the nation's banks. About €70B, or nearly 30% of deposits have left the banks since 2009, but €16B gone overseas, likely meaning the bulk of the cash is "in mattresses." He then went on the plea for more taxes, likely assuring the money will be staying there. 

    German (small) investor protection outfit ((DSW)) hasadvised private bondholders to reject the Greek bond swap offer. The deadline for investors making their election is on Thursday, with a teleconference for eurozone finmins scheduled for Friday to review the outcome.

    The IIF's steering committee members – likely making up a large chunk of private sector owners of Greek debt - have agreed to the Greek bond swap offer, reports CNBC.

    The IIF predicted losses exceeding $1T in the event of a messy Greek default and euro exit, according to a leaked report which made the rounds of finmins, bankers, and other honchos a couple of weeks ago. Mohamed El-Erian's contention that Greece had been "sacrificed" to build a firewall around the rest of Europe sounds about right.

     

    After 7 straight weeks of stock market gains in Shanghai, the team at Credit Suisse decides the risk of a hard landing in China is gone. The analysts still expect growth to remain slow as inflation – on the way down right now – is expected to pick up later in the year, taking significant monetary ease off the table.

    "The government has become a monopoly company that invests in everything," says Zong Qinghou, China's 2nd wealthiest man ahead of the annual National People's Party meetings. His comments reflect the growing concern that – far from reform or rebalancing – "state capitalism" is dominating the economy as never before.

    Oil markets, which have been boosted by tension with Iran and global money printing could be balanced out by Iraq, whose production has topped 3M bpd for the first time since 1979. A new floating oil terminal that is set to start operations in three days will boost exports by 300K bpd. 

    Managed money has a massive bet on higher oil pricesaccording to the latest CFTC data, with the ratio of long to short positions spiking to 12:1. On the other side of those positions is not so much the physical trade – which is just barely net short – but swap dealers and banks. 

    Solar demand in Japan may benefit from a new tariff set to increase the use of renewable energy and the ongoing uncertainty over nuclear energy's future in the nation. A number of solar producers – including Suntech Power (STP), Q-Cells, and Trina Solar (TSL) – are ramping up their operations in Japan in a bid to make up for solar business lost in Europe.

    Good market booster today:  After spending years mired in the mid-20s, Microsoft (MSFT) shares are on fire, +23.6% YTD amid a growing buzz about its new products. Neuberger Berman's Eli Salzmann thinks the stockwill blow past $40 in the next year or two; MSFT has “dramatic upside, even for a large-cap," he says, asserting the stock could earn more than $3/share next year.

    Square, which is upending the payment-processing landscape (III) with a low-cost, easy-to-implement platform that relies on mobile devices, is rolling out Square Register, an iPad app that attempts to be a fully-fledged cash register replacement, replete with employee permission controls and in-depth transaction analytics. Square adds it's now processing $4B/year in transactions, up from $2B in October.

    More than 25B apps have been downloaded from Apple's (AAPLstore since it was first launched four years ago, the company said yesterday. Apple, which has paid out $4B to developers after taking its 30% cut, said last week that its app economy had created 210,000 U.S. jobs.

    Senator Charles Schumer has asked the FTC to investigate claims that apps downloaded to Apple (AAPL) and Android (GOOG) devices steal private contacts and photos, and post them online without consent. Schumer said phone makers are obliged to protect the privacy of consumers. 


  25. Phil, do you want the same format for the 5KP as the 25KP.

    The TSL calls are now a concern!


  26. Part of me says we bounce


  27. JRW
    The BOTS are buying at your 79.82 line. Maybe that is the line in the sand today?


  28. Again, not to be Bearish, but…………………

     


  29. Oh man, story's like this make my blood boil.  I've never missed a rent or mortgage payment in my life, and I'm the sucker….
     
    A million-dollar mortgage goes unpaid for 5 years while couple fights foreclosure
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/a-million-dollar-mortgage-goes-unpaid-for-years-while-couple-fights-foreclosure/2012/03/01/gIQAb4DBpR_story_1.html


  30. Phil/Stj
     
    Did I miss something? What happened to the IWM Jan80/84 BCS @ 2.20, selling two TNA Mar 61 C @ $2.85?


  31. Pharm / Jabo / other bears – watching Bloomberg video shorts over the weekend, almost everyone was bullish.  With the re-election pump job now and The Bernank doing QE3 after the election, I'm beginning to think that the next window for bears is the 'sell in May and go away' timeframe IN 2013!


  32. CMG - pump job began before 10:30 today, bots got a new algo over the weekend?


  33. LOL JMM, I wish I would have seen this before.  I could have put it opposite Putin's pic.  

    On strike: The Prince proved an excellent shot hitting the target repeatedly

    I've gotta think Putin has to look at a lot of these guys with sheer disgust at the UN.  Bunch of soft bureaucrats who he could probably kill, along with their security details, with just the knife and fork he's holding at a luncheon.  

    Factory orders down 1% but not so bad as expected.  Looks like markets may live to fight another day.   We'll see how oil handles $107 this time, should pop over so we'll have to wait for the cross back below to get short again.  NYSE very weak, down 1%, that's a big drag if they can't turn up.  SOX also down more than 1% – holding back the Nas.  

    10:00 AM On the hour: Dow -0.22%. 10-yr -0.06%. Euro +0.16% vs. dollar. Crude -0.06% to $106.64. Gold -0.3% to $1704.75. 

    Feb. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index: 57.3 vs. 56 expected and 56.8 prior (>50 denotes expansion). Prices index rose to 68.4 from 63.5. Employment fell to 55.7 from 57.4. New orders rose to 61.2 from 59.4.  - So prices are up 7.5% and ISM, which is measured in Dollars of activity, goes up 2.3% and new orders, now at 7.5% higher prices, are up 3% so roughly down 3% on both ends adjusted for inflation is why Employment is down (drum-roll please) —— 3%!

    Wow, there goes oil already.  I guess I'm not the only guy who can do math…


  34. IWM / l4real – What portfolio?


  35. 25KP / Yshenhar – You were correct, I had the strike and contracts reversed as we sold 1/2 our USO puts on Friday! Thanks for catching that!


  36. I wasn't paying attention to CNBC but I think I heard Kermit the Frog say S&P would go to 1,700 this year (perma-frog Lazlo Birinyi).

    DMND flying.  

     

    The company ranked #1 most shorted stock by percentage of shares, isDiamond Foods (NASDAQ: DMND) with 48.2% short interest.

    Diamond Foods has gotten a lot of press recently, about its failed acquisition of the Pringles brand from Procter & Gamble. Its certainly possible the reason it ranks as the number one most shorted stock, is because of arbitrage plays. If that is the case, one would expect the arbitrageurs to unwind their position, which could give a nice lift to the stock. Let's see what is going on with Diamond Foods, beyond the failed Pringles acquisition.

    Current Price: $24.28
    P/E on '12 earnings: 8.73
    Growth expected: 17.50%
    PEG: 0.50
    Yield: 0.74% 

    $5KP/Laddoo – We're keeping it for now.  

    Oil/StJ – Yep, not many people agree with me.  VIX is interesting point.  

    $106.50!  Should be bouncy here so good move to take profits and wait for next cross.  


  37. Burrben/Sucker….  count me in. :-(


  38. That note on oil is just for futures players.  Option traders can't just jump out an in like that, the fees kill you.  $106.50 not holding up to well so right back in.  


  39. IWM / JRW – What happens if IWM fails 79.60? Total chaos? Apocalypse?


  40. That died quickly! Ouch. Programmed to buy the dip and now I get my hand smacked…
     


  41. JRW
    Phil had the words. "markets fight another day" and the BOTS kick in again. The end is near.


  42. IBM over 200


  43. PCLN – is it time to buy puts?


  44. DMND in 25KP
    How about rolling the Jun29Cs to the Jun22.5/27 BCS for about 0.65.  DMND now at 25.16


  45. The double-top setup on ES: 

    http://screencast.com/t/Gs4Hemx2


  46. Actually, Pharmboy's USO pivot points on oil were $40.86 and $40.39 and $106.50 came in about $40.75 so a good clue there that support at $106.50 was going to be weak (it didn't match USO support).  Good to know…  I'm still rooting for $105 today and that is not likely to be supportive of the broader market.  

    Efficiency/StJ – One of the things that tanks efficiency is, the more money the Government spends, the more it attracts leaches like GS and their ilk to find ways to take advantage of the situation not to mention Solyndra-style bad investments that are inevitable when you throw money at things.  

    Yahoo/Burr – That is so 409,968,000 seconds ago!  

    FAS Money – What was our plan?  Oh yes, we're waiting to sell puts. 

    IWM Money – TNA threading the needle at $55. 

    $25KP – I'm still loving the short on GMCR.  XRT rejected at $60, GLL getting fun.  SCO I have high hopes for, FAS iffy, TZA depends how soon RUT hits goal, SQQQ I have faith to roll, USO full faith, FAS bullish set looks fine and is hedging bear FAS anyway, TLT we always love at that price, DIA already improving.  

    I miss my total StJ but super-nice, thanks!  Notes look good but font should be small and blue I think.  Not sure what you mean about cost on BCS as it should be the net cost of the spread vs net of last two trades (assuming they look realistic).

    $5KP – TSL sucking but other two look good.   

    Agnostic/JRW – Either way they are running out of days.  Cool chart.  

    IWM/L4 – You asked for a trade idea for YOU to make a new entry on IWM as a late player.  I gave you an idea but I'm sorry, we can't start tracking every single variation of the trade for every person.  If you have the two short calls, then I'm a genius as TNA is down today and the March $61 calls are already .75 (up $2.10 each) which pays for 20% of your long position in less than a week.  


  47. Phil, Besides today's and tomorrow's short term auctions all I see are announcements for the rest of the week. I am looking at the Nasdaq calender. Do announcements play into your basis for driving TLT up?
    http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/us-economic-calendar.aspx


  48. Spreadsheet / Phil – I could post the total for each trade but then I have to make assumptions on when we close it which is the crux of the problem… I was thinking of adding a column for best and worst possible scenarii. But that might be too much….

    Let me know (or anyone else) if you have any ideas…


  49. PHIL/OIL  dont worry someone will blow up an empty shitter that King Abdullah once used as a small lad and say it was an attempt to overthrow the monarchy…oil to $115.


  50. BRINGS NEW MEANING TO THE WORD SHIITE DONT IT?


  51. PCLN/Lol – As a fun play, I like the July $370 puts at $2.  A $50 drop should put them at a double ($420 puts are $4.20) and a $100 drop gets you to $8 so if you look at it as risking $1 (50% drop) to possibly make $3 or $7 – it's a nice risk/reward.  

    DMNZ/Edro – That's a good idea if they lose momentum but, at the moment, I think we can make the same $2 on the open call and that will let us out a lot faster if DMND makes it back to $30.  

    Big Dollar dump just then.  79.31.  Saved the markets for now.  

    Oil bounced off $106 back to $106.50 – congrats to the Futures players! 

    Gold hit $1,693.  


  52. Nice chart Jack: 

    Announcements/Dmor – Damn, you are right, for some reason Econoday had the 2011 Calendar up!  Auctions are NEXT week, not this week.  See, I got lazy relying on Elliott to do the calendars…  

     

    Thursday Mar 8

     

    Factory Orders
    [Report][djStar]
    10:00 AM ET

    Redbook
    [Bullet
    8:55 AM ET

    Weekly Bill Settlement

    Jobless Claims
    [Report][Star]
    8:30 AM ET

    Money Supply
    [Bullet
    4:30 PM ET

    Wholesale Trade
    [Report][Bullet
    10:00 AM ET
             

  53. Spreadsheet/StJ – Whatever works within that format is fine.  Would be too many numbers otherwise.  

    Oil/Angel – Interesting how no one seems to notice Iraq now produces more oil than Iran, up 2Mbd to 3Mbd in last few years – new supply in a World that isn't using the current supply and they are not in OPEC so they can keep cranking it up.  Only 20M people in the whole country so each person putting out about 55 barrels a year would really boost the GDP if they shared it evenly.  My brother bought some Dinars a while ago – they are doing pretty good.  

    Don't forget I have to go do TV at 1:30.  I'll be on BNN at 3.  


  54. Phil/ IWM
    Thanks for the trade suggestion. I could be wrong, but I sense a little defensiveness in your response!
    No, I don't expect you to track every trade variation for every person. I just want to know the correlation rules of the suggested trade against the IWM portfolio trade so I can make adjustments when STJ posts changes.


  55. AAPL solf off….


  56. AAPL?? -3%?? 


  57. Possible FTC Privavy probe into AAPL!


  58. I made 2 AAPL trades:     BTC the 10 March 9  545s for  18.95    and BTO 30  April 500 calls for 44.21


  59. SVU getting taken to the woodshed.


  60. Quick trigger lflan – these puts are already back to $13! Not taking any chances I guess…


  61. good to see the oil manipulation is in full swing!


  62. WFR tagging along with SVU


  63. SVU – get ready to DD.  People cannot stop buying food.

    WFR – Same.

    GTHP – nice.

    Very controlled sell off, which makes JRWs table very interesting….


  64. stj…..no chances can be taken on weeklies.  they double against me, I have to be out.


  65. Phil?Auctions…next week
     
    Does this change your  under 1360 bearish (Mar.) by Wed. call or would you push that out to a week from Wed.?


  66. by interesting, I mean that the premium is going to be eaten out of options b'c the 1% moves are going to be very controlled, so owning the underlying stock may be a better pick….and thus our premise here at PSW is SELL premium.


  67. RIG April $52.5/50 straddle can be sold against the stock for a nice 9%….or more aggressive sell the 50 Calls.


  68. Am short 40 short EDZ April 14 P @ $2.30 now $2.75
    Good time to roll to July 12's  @2.40 to pick up $2 in strike and 90 days??

    tia


  69. USO calendar from Friday – Mar weekly 41.5/Mar month 41.5….still even.


  70. thanks Pharm
    already added to WFR and SVU . glad somebody else thinks their worth it
    re  SVU --.
    Negatives

    - Probability of default .88
    http://chart.ly/bfxin7d
    - cash on hand $196m with  debt load $6.9B
    - high oil driving up wholesale food cost
    - at 52 wk low and finished on low of the day
    - 31% short interest and seling into ex-div date

    Positives
    - have cash flow able to service debt.
    - cash flow able to keep the .089/qtr div. (only $76m/yr)
    - over 90% instit. ownership
         within top 10 owners – Fidelity, Vanguard, State Street Black Rock, Bank of NY Mellon
    - price to sales of .04
    -   One of the S/P 500 stocks with big gap between market price $6.45 and estimate 8.00     http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-02/s-p-500-stocks-with-biggest-gap-between-market-price-estimate.html


  71. Remeber that 'stoopid' trade on VIX….well, it was smart…someone must have fooled everyone as it is a losing trade.  I bought 1 VIX March 29 call, and it is nothing but down (for now).  I think they 'sold' it…..too much control with the bots.


  72. Anyone know why BTU is getting slammed?


  73. lflantheman
    Would it not be a better idea to buy these calls a bit further out than April ? thanks


  74. Canuck / BTU — Coal out of favor and cheap.


  75. TSL — at the bottom of its channel


  76. yodi….further out = safer, yes


  77. LFlantheman / Dumb AAPL trade
     
    I bought 20 of the Apr 500 calls for 48.50.  It was suppose to be 46.50, but I must have fat fingered the price.  Anyway, they are at $46 right now.  Would you DD or get out?  


  78. So news item today: Nothing left to steal in America so banks opening International Branches

    So perhaps "they" are done "investing"  in our market!!

    Which may mean:

     

    Which would make sense historically

    Thanks to On The Eve Of Revolution (by TnRevolution)


  79. Burr…I would hold them for now.


  80. Using StJ's table from yesterday, AAPL has a V rating b'w 515 low and 560 high.  Strangle/iron condors should be ok above that range.  Stay nimble….I sold a few.


  81. Oh no, JRW is back to showing us charts with a big cliff at the right again.  Dude, last time you did that (Dec) I loaded up on shorts and I'm still smarting…


  82. Oh mrm…..come on…..I am licking my woulds and they are still open, but if I bleed to death…then I know I went down with a fight.


  83. Pharm / YMI – this one is disinterested in popping after the stock sale, waiting for market direction perhaps?  BTW, I call this my Existential Stock = 'why am i?' 8)


  84. JRW
    That was excellent, seems we agree that it is a when not if!


  85. mrm – accumulation.  I have a big lot of them, becoming #2 in my portfolio after PLX. (SGEN is also large).  I will hold on to them and if they get down below 1.50, I will buy more.  1.25, more….etc. 


  86. IWM/L4 – If you don't expect me to track every position, why do you put in a comment to me and StJ saying "Phil/Stj Did I miss something? What happened to the IWM Jan80/84 BCS @ 2.20, selling two TNA Mar 61 C @ $2.85?"?  I don't think I'm being "defensive" when it seems pretty clear that you are asking why we're not tracking your trade for you, it's more like insulted by the insinuation that we should be…  I would have been more than happy to tell you how the trade idea I specially set up for you to help you catch up with the IWM Money play could be adjusted to help you get on track but that's not at all what you asked at 10:06, was it?  

    Poor WFR!  

    Auctions/Sage – Oh yes, now going under 1,360 would be super weak as we can't say they are trying to sell bonds.  What I said before (I think) is that holding 1,360 under that pressure would be impressively bullish but now, without the pressure of money flowing into bonds and a rising Dollar, failing the line is exactly as bearish as I said it would be a couple of weeks ago when we finally began to break it from the other side.  

    EDZ/Ban – EDZ is at $12.22 and April is a long time, you will be sorry if EDZ shoots up and there is little effect.  They ran up .60 just today.  

    SVU/Ban – I don't have time to make a big deal of it but in 2009 they had $7.9Bn in debt and $240M in cash.  In that kind of business, those numbers can be misleading.  I think they are making great progress in a tough environment, you just have to be a very long-term investor.

    BTU/Canuck – Getting killed on low coal prices.  A great long-term buy down here but let them test $30 I think.

    Nas really breaking down now – others likely to follow.  

    Dollar only 79.35, will be catastrophic tomorrow if we finish low and spark a continued sell-off in Asia and then Europe wakes up and realizes they were too optimistic today.  

    I've got to go in 1/2 hour but doesn't look to me like we'll be bouncing.  Oil was a nice re-short at $107 – gotta love our counterparties!  


  87. Who in their right mind is buying GMCR?


  88. JRW/ News Item
    Very funny, but true!
    Also very interesting premise with the chart levels! 


  89. Glad someone is using that volatility table Pharm! These AAPL strike look good to me as well…


  90. Pharm – Are you looking at DD on SVU at any particular price?  If so, any particular reason why?  TIA


  91. JRW that last chart is a winner. CB's printing around the world like madmen having less of an effect.

    Solar flare knocks out DTV signal. Must have been a big one first for me.


  92. IRWD – down today hard due to a downgrade, but I think the big boys want in.  Selling a few Aug 12.5s.  WE are currently in the stock with the May 12.5s sold.  They are about even.  Stock is up $2.5 since we bought in.  FDA 'approval' is due in the summer.


  93. Pharm, what do you think of GILD. Is it good to sell put? or  buy/write ?  thanks


  94. BTU slammed. Yeah, coal prices are down and the glut of gas is providing an alternative for many US power stations, so domestic demand is soft. I fortunately was able to dump my last 800 shares of ANR a few days ago, just  before the current avalanche of coal slurry got underway. Grantham likes coal long term,  and so do I, but I am  in no rush to buy them back right now. (Just waiting for coal fired cars to take off.)


  95. PHil – should we be rolling the DIA March 128 puts to April?  Or perhaps to March 31?  I'm just slightly down (8%) on them.


  96. GMCR/Pharm – Rumors that they will be in the S&P.  Question is who in their right mind would want them in the S&P?

    Big Solar flares/Kustomz – Just as the Mayans predicted!!!  

    RUT over 800 is good for the bulls but a good short for us when they are under.  All about the Dollar between 79.25 (under is bullish) and 79.50 (over is bearish).  

    I have to get ready to go but here's the trade I'll be giving BNN:

    Oil and how to play:

    Last time trade was selling Feb $35 puts for $1.55 and buying Feb $34/38 bull call spread at $2.10 for net .55 and, despite the run-up in oil, that trade finished at $1 on 2/17, up 82%

    New SCO trade (now $33) is Selling the April $30 puts for $1.35 and buying the April $29/33 bull call spread for $2.10 for net .75 on the $4 spread with the potential to make 433% if SCO just stays above $33 (oil under $106.50) through April expiration (46 days). 

    You can also do a less bearish offset by selling XOM July $77.50 puts for $1.50 for a net .15 credit or sell 1 XOM against 2 SCOs.  Figure if oil goes down and you collect $8 on SCO, your net entry on XOM is around $70, even before rolling the short puts so that's a nice, neutral way to go short oil. 


  97. GILD/jo – we sold the March $42s Ps on the drop and initiated a Jan 13 $35/40 BCS, selling the Jan 13 $40 ps for 20c debit.  GILD just needs to hold $40….can we ask for that, plz?


  98. Another gas pipeline explosion in Egypt apparently


  99. I started buying a bit of Vietnam ETF [VNM] as the "anti-China."  It is doing pretty well in a tough market for EM stocks, as is MXF [Mexico], another kind of "anti-China."  I have no profundities to add; I have small positions, and they look like they are mostly ignoring most developed equity markets.  Just saying.


  100. P.S. I also have America Movil, which might as well be MXF, and it's also shrugging off most other equity market movements, both up or down.


  101. DIA/Jerconn – Not today.  By Wednesday for sure but the current $128 puts are .83 and, if they head back up, you can sell the $129 puts (now $1.22) and take $1.15 out of your pocket to roll to the April $130 puts (now $3.20) to buy $1 and another month.  If you like that plan, all you have to do is keep an eye on the net of the trade but, so far, all I see is the Dow weak bouncing off a 4-day decline from Wed 13,050 to 12,885 (165) so we expect 33 points (40%) back to 12,918 or 66 back to 12,951 on a strong bounce but look at the Nas for those 4 days and the S&P, NYSE and RUT – all awful looking and the Transports are still leading lower so I think the Dow is more likely to fall down than lift all the other indexes back to its level. 

    Gas pipes/Ink – Going to be a weekly thing at least now, it's the new fad.  Like Nigerian Rebel attacks were last time and Somali Pirates the time before that – Rent-A-Rebel tends to move from region to region, I guess they only have one main squad.  

    Later all!  


  102. Phil
    Get over yourself!
    That is exactly what I asked with my second post on the same subject as I realized my error with the first post and changed it!
    I don't want to get into a "Pissing match" with you over an interpretation or misinterpretation!
    As far as you feeling insulted over an alleged insinuation! I'm not seeing it!
    Where in any of my communications about the IWM trade did I imply in a subtle way or directly an insult to you?
    It was more like me recognizing that the trade you gave me was not the one posted in the IWM portfolio and asking how to corrolate the adjustments! 
    Point out a valid insult and I will apologize!
    I respect what you do on the site regarding the trades, stats, information, personal touch and humor.
    You have and continue to provide invaluable help with investment decisions!
    But seriously, when you come at me claiming to be insulted and insult me in return based on an "insinuation" without first verifying if that was even my intent, then I'm calling you on it dude!


  103. SVU/lnk'd – I would start by selling a few $7.5 Jan13 puts.  They are a little down from where we started the position.


  104. Slow going in the futures markets..very strange


  105. Lflan,
     
    If Aapl stays at this level, ie ~535, will you cover with short calls at the EOD?
     
    thanks,


  106. AMRN – if you like a little volatility and biotechs…AMRN – buy stock, sell the April $8/7 strangle for 1.40.  Nice return or a good point to DD.  I have been in them a while and have the stock with the $9 June Calls and Apr. $7 Ps.  I woudl start the new position with the Apr position.


  107. ongba….would be prudent.


  108.   Fed's Fisher "Wall Street has pre-occupation, bordering on fetish" for QE3…hahahaha..that is my language!!!


  109. lflan and others,
    the AAPl pullback so far does not seem enough. don't "we" expect it to go back to 490 or so, over the next few days?  thx. 


  110.  Stockpiles monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange have climbed to the highest since at least January 2003, weekly data showed.

    Deliveries of passenger autos in China, including sport- utility vehicles and light-goods vans, fell 3 percent in the first two months of 2012 from a year earlier, based on the median estimate of five analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. That would be the biggest drop since 2005, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. A luxury automobile may use as much as 28 kilograms (62 pounds) of the metal, according to the Copper Development Association.


  111. l4real,

    Coming on-line and reading that exchange, I have to say you blew it up.  All Phil did was say they don't track individual postions after you asked him why he wasn't tracking your position.  He was nice and then you called him defensive then he pointed out that your question was posed as if he and stjeanluc had failed to track a trade, which I'm sorry but it did do that.  Maybe he shouldn't have been insulted but I'm sure he will be when he gets back and reads that diatribe. 

    I just like the portfolio so please don't make it a hardship on Phil and stjeanluc to keep it up.


  112. On many of my 1d candle charts, the 5, 20 nd 50d MA are converging!  YIKES!


  113. Lflan, what say you about AAPL.. Taking a loss right now.  But you still believe in the beast?


  114. lunar..blasphemer!! 10 lashes!

    Gold DOW RUT follow the $ higher since the 11:40 low in /DX

    /ES /NQ trading closer to AUD/USD(could bounce) ..weaker. Markets not moving as a single force today. Going to take $ weakness to move the market as a whole this afternoon….if that happens /ES /NQ have a way to go to the upside while they need to play catchup.

    Watching AUD/USD closely

    JRW any position for you?


  115. WFR – wtf? what's with this month-long slide?


  116. Bandwidth play — anyone have any U.S.-based, non-penny stock on non-public company ideas on this?  These guys are using compression algorithms, you would think AT&T could use 'em, too, giving users a [price] option on using compressed/uncompressed data.  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-05/billionaire-li-joins-sequoia-seeing-boon-in-at-t-usage-cap-tech.html


  117. AAPL:   I deem it too dangerous to be long right now.  I'm taking my lumps and bumps (losses) today and going to cash.   


  118. stj…I'll give you the numbers later.


  119. kustomz,
    lashes…too funny.  i'm hanging in for now…but am starting to look at what july calls i'll be able to roll to.  can't write calls to cover in this account.


  120. kustomz / Position

    Cash !! (Waiting)

     


  121. I suspect an anti-stick today in AAPL. and perhaps others.


  122. Iflan – "anti stick" – meaning you expect them to reverse and go back up?  Or plunge?


  123. down


  124. I'm not sure how Phil describes a 'stick'.   For me it's up, with anti down. 


  125. This blows on AAPL today.  I'm fine with taking a loss on the puts, but FU*KING myself by buying calls at the TOP and then selling at the bottom is just stupid.  F me.
     
    Oh, and a big F* to oil and USO puts and SCO calls too.


  126. yodi and lunar have a couple of good points about trading aapl right now.  Moving out to July might be prudent if we feel the need to go long.  That would allow more time for the trade to come in.  And lunar is correct that we likely get to 490 before we get to 590


  127. Iflan – I think everyone considers a "stick" to be up but since we already saw an steep plunge I wasn't sure if that's what you meant here…


  128. Hello All – NY trip:  I will be staying in SoHo for a few days in April.  I have never been there before so some useful tips on where to go eat, vist would be helpful.  I am open to just about anything and would like to visit the places anyone can highly recommend.  I was told that Peter Lugar is a great steakhouse and might be interested unless anyone advises me otherwise.  I am a big sushi fan so any sushi places would be great.  Thank you.


  129. so far, the aapl move down is less than the feb 15th move down…so still hope…maybe.



  130. AAPL scaled in to JUl 525c and JAn 14 500 c aswell sold some Jan14 370p


  131. KERX – SA had an article on Friday on them.  Look at that!  I need to do more there for us…just joking!


  132. Whatever is the panic in AAPL the stock would have to take a breather will not go up for ever


  133. AAPL interesting to see Jul 525c dropped 8.15 as Jul 570 I have short dropped only 5.15


  134. This is a strange day, Feels like we are standing in a room filling with smoke while we wait for someone to cry out…FIRE!!


  135. Kustomz – Isn't that how its been for months and monts now?


  136. Bandwidth;  Maybe it's AT&T that profits from the advent of mobile download compression.  If AT&T offers it to clients themselves, it's more data through the same tubes at zero marginal cost, which sounds like more profits to me. Otherwise they just invite competition, as described in the above-referenced article.


  137. magical sloppy buyer is moving its interest from aapl to ibm


  138. My GLD play of FEB 29 still not to bad today with 0 cash outlay Jan14 BC spread 150/175 and sell Jan 14 150p Just to put under the matress


  139. Someone asked about ARNA this weekend and I forgot to answer.  I would not own the stock but rather play a verticle.  The July 1/2 BCS is 35c.  Nice risk reward, but it is really an all or nothing trade, b'c if they are rejected, they will be less than $1.

     

    Nice.  Up.


  140. Iflan – here comes the anti anti-stick!


  141. For now it looks like a lot of AAPL sellers have taken for the exit now


  142. jerconn
    The stick is up and unti stick is down check your chart


  143. jerconn
    Possible you got the chart upside down


  144. LOL Jerconn.


  145. Phil /AGNC:
    got called today on this position: Bought 600 shares AGNC at $28.40,sold Jan2014 $27 P & C at $5.50 total for net cost of $23.10 the $27 P bid/ask is $1.29/ $2.00. when I put a bid in to BTC at $1.70 then the bid /ask is $1.70 /$2.00 which is trying to get  me to bid about$1.90
    Thinking of buy stock at $30.30 and sell 2014 $27 C and $25 P .What do u think? Thnaks


  146. COL (crying out loud) for that anti anti stick.


  147. dflam
    AGNC Asked Phil this morning same thing see his advice Only feel it is to early to buy back still have stock left over the once  called, which I bought for 29.00 that baby still has room to go down


  148. a just broke down


  149. zeroxzero / bandwidth — I only skimmed the link you provided but I'd think you'd want to look for someone compressing the browsing link not files. Things like pictures, music and movies are already compressed (to some extent). I'd think that compressing the browsing link would have the most impact (and include the downloading of files). Sounds like a pretty easy thing to do, perhaps you should create a startup?


  150. Guess all that smoke was just weed and someone yelled TOGA TOGA. Party on…

     


  151. thats boeing


  152. Now we need a pizza pizza….


  153. AAPL port   :  40  April 500s BTO  43.50     probable daytrade


  154. Any best AAPL hits 540 with the buy programs that kicked in at 3pm?  


  155. I'm past the point of disgust with the pumpbots, so it's kind of fascinating to see that they've brought it all the way back from 12,880 and they're about to go green… just like last monday…


  156. Weasle, no one is playing besides us and the bots.  Oh, and those at SOH (Slope of Hope).


  157. Weasle / bots — also note the time on the LOD.


  158. AAPL right at the downtrend line from noon but not able to break through it.  Dicey…


  159. if you guys would take up a collection I will close all my shorts so the rest of you shorts can get rich- LOL!


  160. I gots to run closed Qs trade, looks like its down from here…GL all enjoy your peeza Pharm!


  161. how boring are things today?..boring enough fo rme to know there are +- 30 -32 posters today


  162. Is anyone buying and DIA puts here?


  163. Hey, hugs and kisses to you as well angel!


  164. Bought back the AAPL long vertical spread Mar 560/565….nice.


  165. AAPL making lower highs and lower lows all day…


  166. Yodi/AGNC : I may need a new set of glasses.,but i don't see Phil's comment


  167. stj….I kept the 40 april 500s.    


  168. I'm going to start slowly cashing in my short put profits here.  Anything that is over 50% up is coming off.  I'd rather be in cash until I can start making good decisions again.  


  169. Interesting day; Rut relative strength compared to other indexes, (allowing them to catch down?)  CMG still easy to play  as it spikes either end of its Bollinger bands on a 15 minute chart, but with Lulu and Aapl showing weakness I'd be careful not to overstay our welcome on the daily short-CMG-put-trade.  


  170. poor finish for tech

    ms tech index ..aapl only 3.5% weighting…down -1.1% today


  171. Does anyone have Phil's interview link? TIA.
    Was CMG down?
    MIRACLES do happen ;-)


  172. Iflan It is not the glasses You need to get up earlier This morning 7.22 Fridays report


  173. dykstra gets three years


  174. Dykstra / Angel – Some jail somewhere got themselves a pretty good free agent OF!


  175. NYC/Ink: Since you are on this site I will assume you are closer to the 1%.  If so, best Japanese in town bar none is "Masa" over in the Time Warner Building.  They fly in their fish Tokyo EVERY DAY.   But the bill will probably run you $500 per person.  They have a more "casual" Bar Masa next door which is cheaper and costs about $200-300. 
     
    Another one I can definitely recommend is the hot new "Brushstroke" in Tribeca. Its operated by the Tsuji Culinary Institute in Japan, where I got my own education.  But this is a full course meal as opposed to just sushi.
     
    For more mid-priced sushi in the under $100 range I can recommend Ushiwakamaru in the West Village .  I apprenticed under the owner briefly (I quit because of "stage-fright").
     
    If you're closer to us 99%ers,  I know this little hole in the wall operation in the Upper East Side that has awesome sushi for around $20 (plus a free beer and sometimes extra appetizers on the house).    The owner is Japanese and he basically does it as a hobby.



  176. thx scottmi!!!


  177. i think if he can avoid trying to make the wrong 'girl' he can get out with 'extra good behavior' after 27 months…anyone know what he did?


  178. zeroxzero – Bandwidth – Bandwidth management will be a huge play but there are not many public companies. Currently AT&T and Verizon have limited interest in bandwidth compression as they move to pay as you go for data and also since they want to downplay its effectiveness until they can get more spectrum (Verizon in concluding deal with cable companies and AT&T more likely in upcoming spectrum auctions.  Interestingly, Congress looking to serve their lobby masters (AT&T) had inserted in the payroll tax legislation some wording that would in effect have prevented the FCC from imposing spectrum caps on those with the most spectrum ( impacting AT&T and Verizon).  No problem here as I'm sure Congress knows what's best in telecom and the FCC is just another obstructionist regulatory body.   Luckily they didn't get away with it or you'd see your eventual duopoly in telecom.  http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2400387,00.asp  
    Once AT&T and Verizon gobble up more spectrum I expect you'll see more wi-fi solutions imbedded in their offers.  It will save them lots of capital and it can offer better service.  There are carrier solutions that exist to do this today which default to wi-fi, save battery power by shutting off the non wi-fi radios and permit calls in roaming territory to be carried over wi-fi to eliminate those exorbitant international roaming fees.  This is all done without customer intervention required.  I expect you'll see this first from Metro PCS or Leap since they better fit with their models and AT&T and Verizon don't want to cannibalize high margin business.  
    I still like and hold Clearwire (CLWR) based on spectrum value but it is speculative.  Selling out of the money puts can put a floor on your entry.  The Sept 2012 $2.00 puts can be sold for $.40 – $.50 but it might be worth waiting for more volatility.    The good news for them recently was that the FCC shut the door on LightSquared last month due to interference between Lightsquared's spectrum and GPS systems. LightSquared was Clearwire's primary competitive threat in wholesale wireless and Sprint was looking to use them as an alternative to Clearwire.  Clearwire has the same network plans as China Mobile (650M subs) in planning to offer 4G on TDD-LTE technology and their spectrum holdings will actually be the most efficient as well as being the largest in the US and very good for urban markets in combo with wi-fi.  China Mobile will drive a meaningful  device market for Clearwire as will Qualcomm's new chipsets.  From a vendor perspective, I watch Dragonwave as well on weakness (DRWI).  Very speculative, volatile and for the patient.  It has relied heavily on Sprint/Clearwire to date for revenue and I see them as a take-out play or a play on the growth in international networks, which are more comfortable with using wireless backhaul than US telecoms, as they move to LTE technologies.  Lots of companies being taken out in the space.  Dragonwave recently bought Nokia Siemens bandwidth business, Belair (wi-fi) was bought by Ericsson and much more to come.     


  179. BNN/Phil – great interview Phil. and i love that plug for WFR..!


  180. Kinki – Thank you!  Much appreciated!


  181. Wedbush cuts IRWD from Outperform to Underperform.  Target $8.  NIce.  Morons.  FRX will buy them in a heartbeat if their flagship shows any type of revenue stream.  BofA thinks so….Zelnorm had $488M in sales in 2006. 


  182. Hey, I'm back!  

    Nice save today, as usual but look at the RUT on the Big Chart – that's not good and won't be until they retake 813 and 8,259 is looking far away for the NYSE.  But, the S&P bounced right off that 1,359 line today although kind of weak since we topped out at 1,377 and then down to 1,357 (20) and back to 1,362 (5) is not too strong a bounce so far.  

    I think tomorrow, if I have time, it might be a good idea to look at the Dow components (the big ones) and figure out how much gas they might have left as it's the Dow that's holding things up for the moment.

    Here's my BNN spot:  http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip631874


  183. Fun watching your interviews  Phil.  Seems the interviewer is always taken aback by your replies.  I think they are expecting more BS and they get PD instead.         :)


  184. Phil,   We've had a great run with AAPL, but today they showed weakness, with volume.   On Wednesday they bring out the new iPad.  Are we selling on the news early?   Are we just too high too fast?   I'm thinking we had better cash out and prepare for a short-term reversal.  What is your best take on it?   Thx. 


  185. Phil- Nice job with a clueless reporter- you were very polite- you smiled but did not laugh- commendable!


  186. Yes I would like to know your take as well,  Phil…..Got burned today with AAPL on the short puts….walked away from the computer for 2 hours and was punished for my inattentiveness….note to self…set stops when away!!


  187. Yodi/AGNC: Thanks .Found Phil's comment. I don't see the Tax increase on dividend making headway.Too many retirees


  188. dflam Glade you found it hope you right on tax 16% nothing to sneeze on


  189. I wonder how these donors feel about rising dividend and gains taxes.
     
    http://www.nypost.com/p/pagesix/fat_cats_pig_out_for_obama_717vN7a6gUAsTx281g09AN
     
    "Wall Street’s top Democrats were out in force Thursday night at the $71,000-a-couple, 60-person fund-raising dinner with President Obama at Jean-Georges Vongerichten’s ABC Kitchen. Guests included Lazard’s Felix Rohatyn, a longtime adviser to the Democratic Party, and wife Elizabeth, and UBS CEO Robert Wolf — winner of Page Six’s fictional “Omnipresent at an Obama Wall Street Fund-Raiser” award and a member of Obama’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board. Also there were Evercore Chairman Roger Altman, Centerview founder Blair Effron and Centerbridge founder Mark Gallogly, who dined on fried chicken and Chilean sea bass with power lawyers Richard Farley of Paul Hastings and H. Rodgin Cohen of Sullivan & Cromwell."


  190. Gold cost per ounce and more -  hoping the paste from word works!
    below is a quick view of gold reserves per company, divided into market cap for a cost basis per ounce for comparison. In this, KGC is the lowest by far. Extraction costs are, i believe, all "co-product" average costs, and found either in the most recent Credit Suisse analyst report of from the company's own website. To fudge to the high side, i added the cost basis per ounce to the extraction cost to get a gross cost basis per extracted ounce. Dividend is of the moment – most of these have been raising their dividend significantly in the last year, and some multiple times. Rand Gold is also guiding that their extraction cost per ounce is expected to DECREASE substantially over the next 3 years.  
     
     

     in billions

     in millions

    per ounce

    in ground

    extracted

    annual

    Company

     market cap

     reserves

    extraction cost

    basis per ounce

    cost per ounce

    Dividend

    KGC

                   12.20

                    62.60

    $636

     $                 194.89

     $             830.89

    $0.16

    /share

    NEM

                   28.40

                    98.80

    $597

     $                 287.45

     $             884.45

    $1.40

    /share

    ABX

                   46.80

                 140.00

    $540

     $                 334.29

     $             874.29

    $0.60

    /share

    GOLD

                   10.20

                    24.76

    $641

     $                 411.95

     $          1,052.95

    $0.40

    /share

    GG

                   38.80

                    64.70

    $530

     $                 599.69

     $          1,129.69

    $0.54

    /share

    AUY

                   12.50

                    17.00

    $486

     $                 735.29

     $          1,221.29

    $0.22

    /share


  191. Gold – dang, sorry for the formatting. Simplifying
    KGC in ground cost basis per ounce: $194.89; extraction cost: $636/oz; gross extraced cost: $830.99/oz
    NEM in ground cost basis per ounce: $287.45; extraction cost: $597/oz; gross extraced cost: $884.45/oz
    ABX in ground cost basis per ounce: $334.29; extraction cost: $540/oz; gross extraced cost: $874.29/oz
    GOLD in ground cost basis per ounce: $411.95; extraction cost: $641/oz; gross extraced cost: $1,052.95/oz
    GG in ground cost basis per ounce: $599.69; extraction cost: $530/oz; gross extraced cost: $1,129.69/oz
    AUY in ground cost basis per ounce: $735.29; extraction cost: $486/oz; gross extraced cost: $1,221.29/oz
    ..


  192. Scottmi – Thanks for the info.  Question – do you know how much gold these companies estimate to have in the ground? 


  193. scottmi
    Gold why is the in ground cost so different per company?? AUY is just about double and even triple of some others


  194. Yodi – Probably the amount of gold per yard in the ground that they are able to extract and/or how far down they have to dig to get that gold out. 


  195. Phil: even though you often piss me off with your silly opinions, you come across on TV as the perfect geek who obviously knows more than they are asking about. I have sent this link to a bunch of my friends to show what it is I do every day instead of playing bad golf with them :)


  196. Thanks Barf (I think).

    Futures right back where they were last night with Dow 12,952, RUT 804, Dollar 79.40, oil $107.09 and gold $1,708.  Best bet was the Dow crossing below 12,950, which fell almost $100 and oil, which fell a buck to $106 below the $107 lines so those are the plays I like while I catch up on comments.  


  197. barfinger Why does he not pick some great TV station like Bloomberg or FOX so I can see it as well


  198. Event starting the AAPL then NAS selloff this morning appears to have been a single order to sell 1 million shares:
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-seller-apple-202635394.html


  199. Stuman:   A million thanks for the detailed explanation of the playing field on bandwidth / compression.  I once created a foreign subsidiary of a Silicon Valley company that had developed some pretty trick video compression algorithms, and sold it to the Japanese after a single trip to Japan [to do something else] and  before I really understood the technology.  I simply see the explosion of data usage and the exponential invention of what can be done with it and realize that is no passing fad, but rather a fundamental development in human evolution --.  bit by bit, and byte by byte.  No investment category has a more spectacular risk/reward profile, and no human activity likely to change the face of civilization as rapidly as those driven by Moore's Law.   


  200. Phil:
    I just watched your interview. Nice job. You were very pleasant. Now I know the face you make when you get a silly question or one that is not very informed. :)
    What are you thinking as an adjustment for TSL? It looks like there still may be more room to go down. What do you think about rolling the April $7's to the Jun $6's and cover with either the April $7 or $8 calls and then try to do it again once(if) those expire worthless?


  201. Iflan:
    I only sold 200 so it wasn't me! :) Tough day!


  202. Don Phil you'd look right at home in one of the social clubs in Brooklyn…badabing badaboom Don Phil says I gotta strangle ya den I gotta smash ya ova dah head wit dis here iron condor…

    Great job big guy, love the crazy look on your face when see mentioned the transports doing well @ 1:44.
     


  203. Hi Phil,
     
    Nice interview :) I could use your input on the following trade please:
     
    Last year you had a very nice suggestion on Disney.
     
    Buy Jan 13 $30 Calls @ $7.03 (now $13.69)
    Sell Jan 13 $40 Calls @ $2.42 (now $5.79)
    Sell Jan 13 $30 Puts @ $3.85 (now $1.17)
     
    Net on the trade was $0.76 (I only have one option pair) and is now worth $6.73.  This trade is over 50% to goal with most of the year left to go.  Do you have any suggestions to adjust this?  Should i take the money and run?  If i had more than the single contract pair I would sell half, but that is unfortunately not an option.
     
    I just don't want to see this very very nice gain disappear, but, things could technically be considered on track.  i would really value any insight and input on what to do :)
     
    thanks scot.


  204. Gas pipeline explosion couldn't get oil far over $107 – that says a lot.  

    Vietnam/ZZ – They are starting to look interesting.  Got your message by the way, I'm all behind today but will try to touch base tomorrow.  

    Over myself/L4 – I already forgot about it.  Will do so again now.  

    Copper/Angel – That's going to blow up big time at some point.  

    Insulted/Bruce – Don't worry, I have thicker skin than that.  This just all goes back to why I don't like having tracking Portfolios – it suddenly turns people needy and suddenly we shift away from discussing trading strategies to focusing on every tiny variation of certain trades.  It gets old very fast for me.  

    WFR/Scott – Oddly enough, the company announced that they were restructuring and would take a loss on Jan 18th and the stock went UP from $4.30 to $5.95 ahead of earnings (2/15).  Then the earnings came out and were about what they said they would be and the company dropped hard but it was already dropping on what I assume was a BS pump job (much like the entire current market) and it was already reversing back to $4.75 ahead of earnings, earnings just became the last straw.  With the restructuring, WFR will only make about .12 this year and, hopefully .60 in 2013.  If the .60 is right (and management hasn't lied to us yet), then they are pretty damned cheap at $3.67 – especially when you consider they have $900M in the bank and still positive cash flow so why do they trade at 6x forward earnings with a $850M market cap?  

    Bandwidth/ZZ – Just like the oil companies used to buy up all the gas-saving ideas and bury them, I imaging phone companies do the same with good compression tech.  They sell bandwidth – the last thing they want is for it to be freely available to their smaller competitors.  The only trend I see in Telcos is that they are all driving costs down to zero anyway, which is good for consumers but turns the Telcos back into true utilities down the road.   

    $106.82 and Dow 12,941 – not bad…

    AAPL – You guys are all so impatient.  As I said last week – they had a nice run.  Cash and wait for the pullback to buy again.  No one likes to wait but, if you play every day, some days will not go your way.  If I don't want to get wet, I don't go out on cloudy days – it doesn't guarantee I won't get wet – but it sure does improve the chances.  If it's cloudy 5 days in a row, then you stay in 5 days in a row and don't play.  If it's cloudy for a month, you stay in for a month.  If, after 10 days you get bored and say "screw it, I'm going to go out anyway" then you should KNOW you are playing in less than ideal conditions and have a better chance of losing than if you had been patient and perhaps you should adjust your risk accordingly or (perish the thought) – just learn to be more patient.  

    NY/Ink – Now we're getting somewhere.  Yes to Peter Lugars, easy ride by train or cab.  Nobu is down that way and it's the best sushi for quality and style – both need seriously advanced reservations but you have plenty of time.   We just had a nice Brunch at the Spice Market – a nice neighborhood to walk around in.  You can always hit the South Street Seaport for drinks and more food too.  Bond Street is also good sushi and an excellent sake lounge downstairs that's great before, after or separately.  Also, if you like comedy clubs – lots of good ones in the village.  Book of Morman is a show worth seeing, War Horse is good and Seminar will have Jeff Goldblum in April and he's fun to watch.  

    Limbaugh/1020 – This issue will not go away for him.  He was all over the news still today.

    Good fire analogy Kustomz.  


  205. AGNC/Dflam – Today was ex-dividend day so he stole your dividend.  Look how fast they recovered too.  I think it's fine to get back in, I love these guys.  They just took their dividend hit, perhaps you don't want to sell calls right away and use $30 as a stop line where you must cover but, otherwise, maybe you catch a nice run up (assuming the market isn't tanking, of course).  With luck, maybe you can sell the $30s for $2+ instead.  Also, note 2013 $27s are $3.50 so if they won't pay you at least $4.25 for the 2014s, I'd say no.  

    Compressing link/Rain – Isn't that what TinyURL and bit.ly do?  

    PumpBots/Weasle – Amazing, isn't it?  

    Thanks Jthom!  

    Cash/Burr – Good plan.  

    I'd like to check out the hole in the wall Kinki!  Masa too beaucoup for my taste.  There is one in Vegas with same food for half the price.  At a certain point, a meal hits a price where it's impossible to enjoy because nothing is worth that much.  Brushstroke I've been meaning to try and I've never been to Ushiwakamaru but I do think I saw him managing the Hanshin Tigers at a Giants game.  ;)

    Nice Telco overview Stu – thanks!  

    Thanks Scott – I noticed they hit (hopefully) bottom again on my phone so I had to call that one.  

    Speaking of bottom – Dow just broke below 12,930 and Dollar poked over 79.50 so we have new stop lines.  Oil annoying at $106.77 but now its a good evening no matter what.  


  206. No rate cut by RBA.. risk off in the markets (knee jerk). Markets think its a mistake to hold rates steady.
    Should be bouncy this evening.


  207. A bit of late-evening entertainment – you all can snicker as you recall acquaintances saying things like this; I certainly did: http://www.cracked.com/blog/6-things-rich-people-need-to-stop-saying/


  208. BNN – Phil, you're big in Canada!!   Nice interview, love the deer in the headlights look of the reporter  when  you don't go where she expects you to go.


  209. Pharmboy/Morning Pivot Point Chart,
     
    since we are following apple now, could you add that to your daily pivot point chart?  If that's not too much trouble that is.


  210. roro – are you still around? been profitably shorting the EUR/JPY this evening.


  211. Foreclosure/Pharm – Such a joke. 

    AAPL/Lflan – They always get tanked ahead of news.  Usually it just shakes out the weak hands who run back in on whatever announcement they make so, if you are staying out, which is wise, I'd do so without regrets and not get sucked into chasing a move up after until AAPL proves it can hold the $550 line.  I'd say $500 is very likely to be tested unless they are rolling out ITV and it looks good enough to drop well over $1Bn to the bottom line, which would now be a drop in the ocean of a bucket that is AAPL revenues and earnings.  This is the problem with getting so big.  

    Clueless/Jthom – I think they threw a lot of stuff at her.  Ever since I called for the people to rise up and revolt against the top 1% in the Fall, they tend to keep me very busy with questions as I don't think they want to give me time to speak off the cuff.  

    AAPL/Sun – it was a huge run, they need to pull back.  Silly to think they wouldn't.  $380 to $540 is $180, which is almost a 50% move up (and $550 is).  Then a 20% pullback (of the run) is $38 and we're back to $512 anyway and that's just a minimal 5% rule retrace, Fibonacci and a strong retracement of the 5% Rule say 40% pullback to $474.  

    Extraction/Scott – Interesting how fast those costs have climbed the past few years.  

    TV/Yodi – Generally, I hate doing TV.  BNN is pretty painless as I can get there 15 mins ahead of schedule.  Big networks take half the day up to do 10 minutes (and then there are 4 other guys on) – I just don't like doing them.  

    TSL/DC – I don't know if I want to bother.  $5KP is not for working trades.  We made some money on the short calls and lost it back and more on the long calls.  Probably better to move on.  

    Don/Kustomz – I grew up in an Italian/Jewish neighborhood, knew many people in the business.  

    DIS/Scot – You are in very good shape to make another 50% so not much to do, really.  You could take advantage of low VIX to roll your Jan $30s ($13.69) to the 2014 $30s ($14.55) for not even $1 you buy a year.  If you want to be a bit adventurous, you can add 1x the 2014 $40/50 bull call spread at $5.60 and roll the caller to 2x the July $42s at $2.90 and then your caller(s) are almost all premium and will expire faster, which leads to more good options. 

    LOL Snow!

    Thanks Canuck.  


  212. Gold/Ink – yes, it was in my first table..what they all call "proven and provable"
    KGC 62.6 million ounces and market cap 12.2B = shareholders owning gold in ground for $194.89/oz
    NEM 98.8 million ounces and market cap 28.4B = shareholders owning gold in ground for $287.45/oz
    ABX 140  million ounces and market cap 46.8B = shareholders owning gold in ground for $334.29/oz
    GOLD 24.76 million ounces and market cap 10.2B = shareholders owning gold in ground for $411.95/oz
    GG 64.7 million ounces and market cap 38.8B = shareholders owning gold in ground for $599.69/oz
    AUY 17 million ounces and market cap 12.5B = shareholders owning gold in ground for $735.29/oz
    i consider that "cost of raw goods." Then you have to remove it, refine it, sell it. Those are the "value add" costs, and they vary too.

     


  213. cheap sushi/Phil:
     
    Koito sushi
    310 E 93 St
    New York, NY 10128
    betw. 2nd and 1st Ave, closer to 2nd.
     
    Looks like a cheesy dive, but its authentic.  The chef is a nice old guy who is very quiet.  But if you try and make some small talk and you can make him laugh, he'll might throw in freebies like japanese curry from the family meal, or potato croquettes or something — depends on his mood though. 


  214. Hanshin/Phil:  Dude, how did you know my favorite team?!


  215. JRW and Anybody else
    IWM/TZA/RUT

    I am going on the record as saying I believe the RUT, and hence TNA are going to be seeing some Major changes, and soon. How soon?   Oh sure, as if I know. I've made occasional trades in TZA/TNA for about 2.5 years (shares, not options). I'm nobody, compared to 99% of you. Actually, now that I think about it, I AM the 1%. The bottom 1% that is. Anyway, I've been studying and annotating charts of TNA/TZA almost daily for more than two years (for myself).
    I'm going by a combination of my gut, and the overall market gestalt, with a fairly healthy dose of TA thrown in for flavor. I've been of this opinion since Jan 23 when I bought one lot (of my standard size) of TZA, and when I bought a second on Feb 16., about which I've posted once or twice.
    For the first time in my recent memory, I'm seeing more negative divergence of the RUT away from the other indexes. I just looked at a 12 month chart of RUT vs SP and I don't see a divergence this big anywhere in that time frame.

    And then a couple days back Phil said he sees maybe 750 RUT this month. Having the Oracle of New Jersey on the record backing my own conclusion  doesn't exactly hurt my confidence level of my own opinion  (which is S.W.A.G.)    :)

    Also, for the last 5 to 8 days I've been noticing the Transports/Indu's divergence, (and which Phil mentioned on BNN today) so that backs things up from a Dow Theory point of view.
    I swear on my mother that I wrote this post Monday night about 9pm, BEFORE watching the big guy on TV.
    My overall opinion, like most of you, is that we are at crazy crazy levels, and I'm will to take a 3X bet that one of these day's, sooner than later, we'll have a nice turn down. Smooth, or sudden? I would lean more toward smoother rather than "suddener", but for me personally?-"suddener" would be nice  :)
    So, I'm heavy in on TZA, and feeling comfortable. I've got a stop that is protecting my second lot at break even, and I'll probably be placing a similar stop on the other half within a few days if we can get TZA up another buck or two. If I can get that Stop put in at breakeven, then I have only pure upside potential.
    I don't "day trade" TZA/TNA. My typical hold periods run 2 days to 3 weeks, but longer if I feel like I've caught the wave at the right time and the price stays above my  personal preferred Moving Averages.
    disclaimer: I'm new around here, and the likelihood that I have absolutely no freaking clue what I'm talking about is probably somewhere around the 90th percentile, so be gentle on me………….

     


  216. Gold/Yodi – prices in ground vary with market cap. for example, KGC is seriously "on sale" right now as they have been having a variety of issues, which include political risk (such as in Ecuador). If you would have bought them last year at $20, the cost of gold in ground would have been closer to $400/oz.


  217. Phil,
    I echo Canuck, we love you in Canada. I think the reporter just holds you up there and is in awe of you. Last time I saw her introduce you she gave such a glowing build-up, it was obvious she values you highly and is afraid to ask a wrong question.


  218. And by the way, even though I don't trade options, which I've mentioned like about a thousand times, I'm expecting Phil to come back with a tutorial for me that will sound something like this:
    newbie/TZA
    You're totally kidding yourself if you think your gonna make any profit on TZA. Nobody knows what's going to happen and it could be December before your stink'in TZA goes up 50 cents from where it is now.
    What you SHOULD do is this: Buy 2000 contracts (puts) for 3 cents each, then create a vertical with calls that you can buy for $47.09 each, hence a net entry of only $47.06. Then write and Iron Condor on that, wrapped up in a butterfly spread, and DD on a BCS on the intrinsic difference. But BE SURE TO WATCH THE DOJI CAREFULLY. Measure the average candle height of the Amerasian Rice Production Short Index, and be sure to include that measurement in all your calculations. Then multiply by the square root of the VIX and do an "area under the curve" calculus function, which will give you a number that can be inverted then cubed, then divided by Pi, and use that number to go short Apple Pie, and when that goes up by at least 20%, take the proceeds and roll them into American flags, but only if they are made in China, since your price of entry would be lower. After you get into that position,  buy 1653 of the $950 August 2012 calls on AAPL, and watch them on a tick by tick basis during all open market hours, for three weeks, and if those start to depreciate significantly, then you'll know you made the wrong move, and you'll want to get out of those (you'll only have lost $600,000 at that point, so no biggie). The American flags are made out of thread, mostly cotton and polyester, so buy 1000 LEAP 2014 CALLS on every company that is involved in cotton and polyester, like Dupont ad Singer. Oops, sorry, I forgot Singer went Bankrupt. Oh well, just Dupont is good enough. Dupont relies on petroleum products to makes it's polyester, so the natural play is to go long on oil, but only a VERY small position, say $2 million dollars. Once that play is in place, watch that position tick by tick for 5 days. If it goes down more than .000000043 %, OR up by more than .000000000032% on the spread, SELL, and take your profits. Invest the profits in a hydroponic tomato growing operation, because by 2060 we're going to have a tomato shortage due to global warming. At that time you can sell your hydroponic tomato farm position and invest in a bicycle manufacturer ( I hear Huffy makes some of the most Premium bikes in the world, custom made out of oat fiber) since there will be no oil, and everybody will be getting around on bicycles and donkeys. If you do all of the above, you will be well on your way to a very comfortable retirement by 2084.
    All the best.
    -Phil


  219. LMAO newbie, please tell me that you smoked some maui wowie around midnight.

     


  220. Newbie – that was inspired!


  221. Thanks, Newbie! That was hilarious – made me laugh out loud. Great post!


  222. Newbie – classic…!!


  223. Newbie/ Cant wait for Dr Phil to wake up. Be ready for a well deserved spanking :)
    Thank you and great sense of humour


  224. Newbie- kinda funny but Phil really doesn’t say THAT complicated of stuff and if you follow the recommendation to papertrade and read the beginner’s guide you really should have no problems/confusion.


  225. Good morning!  

    Just broke 12,900 on the Dow (/YM) – Fun, fun, fun!  2,600 on Nas is being tested, really bad if it doesn't hold.  Still bearish as we're still over 79.50 on the Dollar (79.55).

    Oil (/CL) at $106.57 after right at our $106.50 line and looking weak for another short entry (or staying in if you've been up all night!) – the gift that keeps on giving.  Gold back to $1,696 and below $1,695 will probably spook the bag-holders into another nice dump so let's watch (/YG).

    RUT confirming weakness at 798.9 but, as I said on the trade idea last night – nowhere near as much fun to short as the Dow.  Friggin' S&P could not hold 1,360, now 1,356 – how am I supposed to switch my brain off if the technicals aren't going to at least support a bullish position?  

    Should be another nice day for EDZ with Hang Seng off 2% and Shanghai down 1.4%.  Asia pretty much finished at day's lows and that has Europe down 1% at the open.  Gosh, who could possibly have predicted that something like this would happen at 12:54 yesterday?  

    8-)

    I love it when a plan comes together!  


  226. Sushi/Kinki – I wonder if that place is the old Musashi?  Back in my college days, there was a hole in the wall around there that had great sushi real cheap.  Was very narrow and pretty much just room for the sushi bar and chairs, I think there was one table of 4 right in front when you walk in.  If that's the place, then I doubt they could have configured it any differently.  So now I must check it out but I doubt it's the same guy – he used to love us.  As to Hanshin – it's scary what Google can tell me about you, right?  

    LOL, just kidding.  It does so happen that, I THINK (as it was many years ago), the old manager of the Tigers' nickname was Ushiwakamaru – so, when you said it, that's what sprang into my head (it's scary what kind of crap I have buried in there). 

    RUT/Newbie – Seems in-line with what I see.  What I like about "complicated" options trade vs. spending $19.94 a share on TZA is that a 10% move in the RUT will give you 30% on TZA so call $26 your goal and let's say you have $1,994 and hope to make $606 – sound about right?   Even without margin, you can pick up the April $17/20 bull call spread for $1.50 so $300 for 2 of them will net you $300 BUT all TZA has do do is not go down and you get paid in full.  So, essentially, this is a bet that the RUT will not be above 800 at April expiration.  So you can make 100% on the upside but what happens if TZA goes the other way and falls $6?  Well, with the $1,994 in stock (100 shares), you would lose $200 but, with the bull call spread, we can ASSUME that you will end up roughly where the $23/26 bull call spread is, as that's $6 higher than your spread.  The April $23/26 bull call spread is .45 so a loss of $210 and that's not including time decay so you are sacrificing having more downside risk in order to have an easier upside.  

    That's why it's VERY important to set stops on spreads like that but, I will point out, that since you are willing to own TZA, you can sell 2 July $16 put for $300 (currently $1.50) to fully offset the cost of the bull call spread.  So now, if TZA does what you think, and goes up, you stand to make $600 with TZA over $20 at April expiration and holding $16 through July or, if your TZA spread drops $150 and you stop it out, you still have the $300 you sold the 2 $16 puts for so only down $150 and, even if TZA is ultimately put to you at $16, your net with the $150 loss is $16.75, which is still 11% cheaper than the current price.  

    So now, you are only committing to buy, worst case, 200 shares for net $3,350, saving your first $300 of losses on TZA and you have an upside of $600 if TZA simply stays at or above it's current price.  That's what options are for when they are used correctly.  

    Very funny, by the way.  

    Canada/Chas – And I love Brador too!  Yes, she does give me very nice intros and I felt bad as I didn't know her name (they don't introduce you just stick a camera in your face and start talking).  I'd like to go up there and co-host with her one day.  

    See – Jrom gets me!  


  227. Phil:  I think you used TNA to price all your TZA chat above?


  228. Phil,
    BNN anchor's name – Kim Parlee


  229. Tuesday's economic calendar:

    7:45 ICSC Retail Store Sales

    8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales

    2:09 AM Asian markets decline on economic concerns, while Indian shares have bounced around as state election results roll in. Japan-0.6% to 9638. Hong Kong -1.6% to 20926. China -1.4% to 2411. India +0.6% to 17467.

    8:57 PM Hong Kong shares move lower in the first session, with resources weaker after many commodities pulled back overnight due to China growth concerns. The Hang Seng Index is currently down 1% to 21,049: Jiangxi Copper (358.HK -2.43%), Aluminum Corp. of China (2600.HK -1.70%), Angang Steel (347.HK -2.35%).

    Oh noooooooooooo!  Eurozone Q4 GDP second estimate -0.3% on the quarter, as expected. Yearly figure is +0.7%, as expected. (statement)

    China is planning to limit growth in some of its largest industries, according a work report Chinese Premiere Wen Jiabao recently delivered at the nation's legislature. Four industries are listed in the government report suggesting that increases in capacity should be curbed: auto manufacturing, steel making, shipbuilding and cement production.

    The commodity super-cycle underpinned by China is drawing to a close, according to Credit Suisse Asia's Dong Tao. Chinese commodity needs have peaked, and the nation is transitioning to domestic consumption and away from exports and infrastructure building as a driver of the economy. The shift is all part of its changing industrialization model, and a harbinger of a slower-growth era on the horizon.

    Chinese auto sales through February fall 3% Y/Y, the worst figure since the 8.9% drop in 2005. "There are no incentives for consumers to buy," says Cui Dongshu, "They worry more about their income prospects … more people are delaying their purchase."

    Steel stocks such as AK Steel (AKS -6%) and U.S. Steel (X-4.7%) take a beating as China cuts its growth target to the lowest level since 2004. With ~50% of global steel consumption occurring in China, the country plays a big role in the commodity, Morningstar's Bridget Freas says, but investors also should heed other factors such as input cost rather than relying just on China news.

    Select coal names take a beating off of a double whammy of a drop in natural gas prices and word that China cut its GDP target. Big movers: PCX -9.1%, JRCC -8.6%, ANR -6.6%, BTU -4.6%, OXF-9.5%. - See why we like BTU best?

    Goldman's perpetually sunny Jim O'Neill – who made his bones researching oil prices and their economic impact – is worried about the price of crude and believes policies should be aimed at cooling it off. "When oil prices rise persistently, they usually end up causing quite a bit of damage."

    Goldman Sachs revises higher its Q1 GDP growth estimate to 2.0% from 1.9% following the strong ISM services print. Last Thursday, Goldman cut its forecast following a weak ISM factory print. These guys are getting paid for this stuff?

    Income discrepancies seem to be growing again, as 93% of all income gains during 2010 went to the top 1% of earners, a new study says. Income share for the top 1% reached a post-1929 peak of 23.5% in 2007, tumbled to 18.1% by 2009, but in 2010 bounced up to 19.7%. It's likely "this uneven recovery has continued in 2011 as the stock market has continued to recover."

    If you're a baby boomer approaching retirement,demographic trends will weigh down your portfolio returns, fund manager and researcher Robert Arnott warns. The ratio of retirees to active workers in the U.S. will balloon; as retirees sell stocks and then bonds to support themselves, there will be fewer younger investors to buy those securities, keeping a lid on prices.

    new report from the NY Fed adds to fears that soaring student loan debt is a ticking bomb, as it estimates as many as one out of four borrowers carry a past-due student loan balance. The report puts the latest outstanding student loan balance at $870B, more than total credit card debt ($693B) and what people owe in car loans ($730B)

    Dallas Fed chief Fisher assails the preoccupation, "bordering upon fetish," of Wall Street with QE3. "Trillions of dollars are lying fallow, not being employed in the real economy. Yet (markets) keep looking for more?" Markets should prepare themselves for "Dr. Fed to wean them from their dependency." Fisher is not a voter on the FOMC this year.

    China's 2012 inflation target of 4% (ahead of expectations for 3-3.5%) suggests Beijing is considering more stimulus as well as an easing of price controls on energy which artificially hold down inflation prints (and destroy refining and electric production profitability).

    As Chinese contract manufacturers such as Foxconn and Nam Tai (NTEhike wages thanks to a combo of inflation and public scrutiny, many tech OEMs, including AAPLHPQDELL, and NOK, are warning prices could rise as a result. Apple could be relatively immune, thanks to its high margins, but rising wage costs could present a bigger challenge for other PC makers, as well as for Nokia, whose phones carry an ASP of just ~$70. 

    India’s ruling Congress party is trailing as votes are counted in two key northern states; voters "have punished Congress for corruption and high inflation," says analyst Satish Misra. The results of the elections could impede PM Singh's ability to accelerate policy changes as growth moderates. BSE Sensex -1.1%.

    Russia's blue-chip Micex index -1.2%, nearly erasing yesterday's post-election gain, as riot police are called in to Moscow to break up protests by those contesting Putin's win. (previously)

    The EC calls Spain's declaration it will miss its 2012 budget target a "serious, grave" deviation, but the Spaniards are defiant and the rebellion has begun. "I cannot remember such a bold and open act of defiance by any state," says Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. "As for the 'Fiscal Compact,' it is rendered a dead letter by Spanish actions."

    Portugal should be able to return to bond markets next year, says Abebe Aemro Selassie, the head of the IMF's aid mission to the country. Private creditors aren't expected to face writedowns, though the path to financial health "will not be easy."

    As Thursday's deadline for Greece's bond swap nears, the speculation heats up about whether it will succeed. The ECB expects the participation rate to be too low, Der Spiegel reports, adding to aweekend article in The Daily Telegraph. Against that is apparent acquiesence from the IIF steering committee and German banks.

    Greek default looms as voluntary debt deal looks set to fail (Telegraph)

    "The euro is not in the interests of the Dutch people," says Geert Wilders, leader of the populist, right-wing Dutch Freedom Party, calling for a return to the Guilder. With a sixth of the seats in the Dutch parliament, the DFP is the first political movement in the eurozone with a large popular base to opt for withdrawal from the single currency.

    Jefferson County in Alabama can proceed with its $4.23Bbankruptcy, the largest ever by an American municipality, a federal judge ruled late yesterday. The judge rejected arguments of creditors, which include JP Morgan (JPM), that the county was ineligible for bankruptcy because it has the wrong type of debt. The next court date is April.



  230. U.K. regulators and major global banks are 
    discussing an overhaul of the calculation and regulation of Libor amidst numerous investigations into charges it has been manipulated, reports the FT. Interbank lending rates set the benchmark for $350T of contracts across the globe.

    Speaking of manipulation:  Brushing aside clear signals the Fed is on hold for now, Morgan Stanley's Vince Reinhart (also a former Fed man) sees further QE, perhaps as soon as April. Maybe of most import, Reinhart believes the Fed wants to get moving soon so as not to have to undertake such action in the middle of election season. 

    The Swiss government has passed a tax law that would allow it to hand over data on suspected U.S. tax evaders, even if U.S. authorities can't identify perceived offenders by name or bank account. The law, which helps support an expected settlementbetween the U.S. and Swiss banks over tax evasion, is seen as a weakening of the privacy safeguards Switzerland's finance industry has long been known for. (also)

    Verizon (VZ) says its experience using cutting-edge 100G optical transmission gear has thus far "exceeded expectations," with the technology providing major performance and operational efficiency benefits. That's music to the ears of Ciena (CIEN), which is both the supplier for Verizon's deployment, and an early leader in the overall 100G market. 

    Disney (DIS) has uploaded 70 Disney Channel videos on YouTube (GOOG) in recent days, including some full-length episodes. The videos, which stem from a recent deal that will also result in Disney producing some original content for YouTube, are more evidence of YouTube's interest in challenging Netflix and Hulu (and indirectly, pay-TV providers) as a professional content hub. (also)

    With heavy capex and the large barriers to entry that come with it, Google (GOOG) is in some ways more like a telco than a media company, says Nomura's Brian Nowack. But that isn't stopping him from starting coverage with a Buy and $750 PT. Nowack is bullish on both online advertising's ability to gain share relative to other ad formats, and Google's ability to gain share within the online ad market.

    Apple's (AAPL) next iPad, due to be unveiled on Wednesday, will be called the iPad HD rather than the iPad 3, reports CNET. The report backs up a July scoop which also claimed Apple's next iPad would "sit alongside" the iPad 2 rather than fully replace it.

    Following a stellar Q4, iPhone sales have remained strong in Q1, says Canaccord's Mike Walkley, who says his checks indicate more U.S. share gains. Walkley, a long-time Apple (AAPLbull, estimates 32.6M iPhones will be sold in Q1, good for 23.7% of global smartphone shipments. He also sees continued share losses for Research In Motion (RIMM), noting checks indicate weak sales for BlackBerry 7 devices.


  231. Phil looks to me you using TNA 56.97 and Not TZA which is 19.94 at present 


  232. Phil,
    Is this just gold bug propaganda or is there anything to it?
    The guy in this article claims that 13 states are looking for approval to issue their own currency or explore it as an option. He also claims that businesses and some governments will look into alternatives to protect themselves from hyperinflation.
    Whats yor take on this?

    https://moneymorning.com/2012/02/14/why-im-taking-gold-double-eagles-on-my-next-trip-to-utah/


  233. Thanks Never and Yodi – Good thing someone is paying attention!  All fixed now.  

    Thanks Chas, that will be better next time she interviews me.  

    Currency/Msf – I don't think that's an accurate interpretation of the Constitution.  If not, it would require constitutional amendment, which is 2/3 of Senate and 2/3 of the House AND 3/4 of the states have to ratify it.  Obviously that would never happen so the whole thing rests on that weak premise.  Of course this is the kind of thing gold bugs put out all the time.  The jig is up for oil and gold and we're seeing a lot of desperate attempts to keep the prices high by all the sell-outs who are on the payroll of the speculators and oil companies like this jackass:  

    Senator John McCain takes to the Senate floor to call for the U.S. to lead airstrikes on Syria. Calling the regime in Syria "the main forward operating base of the Iranian regime in the heart of the Arab world," McCain says the U.S. has a "clear, national security interest."


  234. And the Boss calls out the top 1% – check out the lyrics:
    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/03/springsteen-send-the-robber-baron’s-straight-to-hell/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+TheBigPicture+(The+Big+Picture)
     
    BTW – if you have to replace Clarence, a dozen horns is the way to do it


  235. Phil TZA setting a stop loss. Buying the Apr 17/20 bull c and selling the Jul 16p where would you set the stop loss
    looking at an analyses say TZA drops to 18.60 on the 19th Apr doing nothing you would  show a profit of 41.00 however 
    14th Mar -124.00 22nd -96.00 30th Mar -66.00 7th Apr -32.00 14th +4.00 17th +24.00 19th +41.00


  236. kustom,    that would be a negative on flower consumption, however it is very possible (probable?) there are still some residual THC molecules floating around in the bloodstream from 25 years ago………..
    scottmi,  ceegee,  aussie,           THANK You   (-he takes a modest bow)
    lionel,   consider me well spanked  (see Phil's fresh TZA commentary, a few posts above)
    jromeha,   yeah, I know, but it's SATIRE!   I'm just trying to make my modest contribution to our little community here, to the humor that floats around here from time to time.  I laugh out loud almost every day when I see some of the humorous things that float by. I can't remember who it was a couple days back (maybe Mr Mocha?) that said  "somethings wrong, I'm actually making money!".   Now THAT's funny.
     
    and finally, for Phil;   I know you have a major league sense of humor (and dry wit), so I think you'll take it in the spirit  intended. Also, the details of what you just wrote (above) re: TZA IS a VERY valuable treatise that I WILL save and use in developing and understanding the principles and theory of trading TZA/TNA in the future, and I WILL learn from it. Believe it or not, I do understand SOME of it, (and a lot of everything else you write) and eventually I will understand ALL of it. I do understand that the information contained just in a couple simple paragraphs like that can be worth THOUSANDS to the right person, when they execute it properly and fully. As soon as I build my portfolio up to $30k or so, I'll be able to safely do trades like that without the possibility of totally blowing out.    ;)
    peace out