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Technical Tuesday – 1,360 or Bust on the S&P

SPY DAILY What a wild ride these markets are on!

The S&P held flat on low volume but sold off sharply after hours, only to recover early this moring from a dip all the way back to testing the 1,360 line at the Dollar ran back to test 80.  

As David Fry notes:  With over 400 of S&P 500 earnings being reported only 60% are beating estimates whereas in the previous quarter the level was over 80%.  Consumer credit rose sharply by $21.4 billion in March vs expectation of $9.8 billion. Most of this gain was concentrated in the new bubble, student loans.

Spain is up again this morning (1.5%) on bailout talks but the FSTE and DAX are barely flat after poor opens and the CAC is still down 1%.  Our Futures are down about 0.25% overall, which is a vast imrpovement from the lows at 4am. 

There is no particular reason for the move, other than this being Tuesday in a manipulated market.  Neither oil ($97.38) or gold ($1,628) or copper ($3.71) or silver ($29.73) or even gasoline ($2.97) give any indication of consumer demand for commodities.  "Fixing" the charts does not mean you have fixed the economy!

In fact, as you can see from our Big Chart, huge technical damage has been done to all of our major indexes with the S&P acting as the sole hold-out over its 1,360 line, where it has bounced 3 other times since March.  Does that make it solid support or a dangerous floor to break below?  We'll probably find out in the very near future

 As I mentioned in yesterday's post – none of the structural issues that affect the EU are going away and we need to dig deeply to figure out what is really going on in the International Markets.  Yesterday was very much a watch and wait day as we certainly didn't take the low-volume move up too seriously – as you can see from the Big Chart – we haven't even made an attempt at what we would classify as a "weak bounce" so far.

Speaking of weak -  ICSC Retail Store Sales were down -0.8% week over week – leaving them up 3.3% for the year but that is softening fast from a 4.2% annualized reaading.  The decline in sales is due to consumers concentrating on staples especially groceries.

FXE WEEKLYThe Euro is trading at $1.30 - 0.6 percent from a three-month low as Greece’s political leaders meet for a second day in a bid to form a new government, after an election raised questions about the country’s membership of the euro bloc. The 17-nation currency maintained a two-day decline against the yen after French President Nicolas Sarkozy, German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s preferred partner for enforcing debt reductions, was defeated by Socialist Francois Hollande.

Demand for the Yen was also limited as Asian stocks climbed before data that may show German industrial production rebounded. The Australia’s dollar dropped against all of its 16 major peers after the country’s trade deficit more than doubled in March. “Regardless of which party eventually manages the Greek government, the next period here looks to be full of uncertainty,” said Imre Speizer, a strategist in Auckland at Westpac Banking Corp. (WBC), Australia’s second-largest lender. “That’s going to be a negative for the Euro.”  A negative for the Euro is a positive for the Dollar and that's bad for stocks and commodities in the short run. 

DBC WEEKLYIn Asia, the Nikkei fell another 1% today despite the Bank of Japan stepping back into the stock market Monday, making its largest single-day purchase of exchange-traded funds to date, though the move failed to prevent a sharp fall for the Tokyo equity market.  If this is how the market is behaving WITH the BOJ as a major buyer of equities – how bad is the reality they are trying to cover up?

According to Economist Andy Xie, both the US and Europe have run out of monetary tricks at this point.  Industrial production is stalling in India, and its credit rating may be downgraded to junk. Power consumption in China has slowed to about half of last year's level, while consumer price inflation remains stubbornly high. It's obvious the world's largest emerging economies are no longer in a position to carry the global economy through tough times, as they did during the "recovery" years of 2009-'11. And that spells trouble for the United States and Europe.

Meanwhile, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Richard Fisher, rejected the idea that higher inflation would spur the economy on Monday. Saying the last thing businesses needed in this economy was uncertainty, Fisher sided with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in his public feud with Paul Krugman. Called “The Battle of the Beards” by The Washington Post, the back-and-forth between the two economists began when Krugman called on the Fed to raise inflation targets, a move Bernanke called “reckless.” “I would say that Ben Bernanke’s guilty of understatement. It would be more than reckless. It’s a silly thing to recommend,” Fisher said.

Doesn't sound like QE3 is right around the corner to me and we sure don't want to be forced to see how well (or how poorly) our markets are able to hold up on their own. 

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  1. Oil Lines

    R3 – 100.32
    R2 – 99.25
    R1 – 98.54
    PP – 97.47
    S1 – 96.76
    S2 – 95.69
    S3 – 94.98

    We have been stuck between PP and S1 since early morning.

  2. Google got the 1st driverless car license in NV.  Another reason to move there!

  3. Finally updated my volatility spreadsheet with this week's estimations:

  4. Morning guys.  Our new greek enlightened leader has struck right after he got his chance to form government:

  5. Driverless – Can't be any worse than the typical Las Vegas driver….. :)

  6. Today's numbers:

    Germany Industrial Production / 1.6% (-1.20% expected)
    NFIB Small Business Optimism / 94.5 (93.0 expected)
    Canada Housing Starts / 244.9K (204K expected)

    Few numbers today but all green!

  7. Thanks for the update Dpas… That can't be helping!

  8. StJ / I wish there was a european VIX, i could be filthy rich by now just by buying long every day…  And the fun has just started, wait for more..

  9. stj, howdoes one interpret the info in the vola worksheet--is there a writeup? TIA.

  10. PP:

  11. Sky News has learned that (PCLN) is considering a takeover of British web-based rail ticketing service Trainline. Priceline is said to be one of several bidders vying for control of Trainline, which could be worth up to GBP400M. Other bidders are said to include Kohlberg Kravis Roberts (KKR) and a Canadian pension fund.

  12. GLL?

  13. that was a quick hit!

  14. Gold takend down to…it's rising trendline on a weekly chart. looking very programmed.

  15. Phil -- 
    Do you have a (for a lack of better description) a FAIR VALUE of what you think the S&P should be trading at, based on your assessment of the fundamentals?

  16. Looks like insider trading yesterday just prior to the FOSL announcement.
    Big Position Bear Call Spread.  Stock down 36 pts this a.m.

  17. Looks like we picked the wrong week to be without USO puts…

  18. FAS & Money Portfolios: When is a good time to start these?  I wrote down a starting trade:
    2014 XLF bcs 13/15 for the FAS Port…

  19. PCLN / StJ – Since you are the volaitlity expert, do you think you can propose a short strangle on PCLN for earnings tomorrow? WAs thinking about short calls around 780 – 800.  Should i go further out?  thankS

  20. Good morning! 

    What an exciting day already – and it's only 6:30 here in Vegas… 

    I have a breakfast meeting but should be back around 11:30 (8:30) but who knows what kind of wild stuff will happen between now and then.  

    Gold is finally breaking down at the Dollar re-tests 80 to $1,610 and oil is down to $96.85.  TLT is at $118.75 and the VIX is 19.48.  Even XRT is back under $60 at the moment! 

    CMG is testing $400 – also on a sharp sell-off and PCLN is down to $732.

    Our indexes are back on a downward path at the open – that Futures rally was total BS but let's just keep an eye on our levels as it will be surprising not to find support here.  We already have a preview of Fisher's speech (see post) and that's not going to be very market-positive at 12:45 but the Fed has notes to peddle this week so they need to be a bit bearish to scare people into bonds.

    As long as the S&P holds that 1,360 line – the bulls still have hope so watch out for dip buyers galore at this level – I doubt it will break very easily but, if we do break – it's a long way down to the next support! 

    As I said last week, 12,800 on the Dow seems to be the destination and we're at 12,981 already after testing 12,800 in the Futures Sunday night.  775 is still our RUT target and the Nas should be testing 2,925 and the NYSE's -2.5% line is 7,800 – these are ugly numbers foks! 

  21. Good day to close that SQQQ short put!

    Speaking of shorts, it's a shame to pay to buy back the short TNA and SCO options (basically worthless) but they tie up a lot of margin even in a PM account as they are 3x ETF. So anyone short of margin might want to look at closing the positions.

  22. FYI / GLW Trade  -  I really like this one.
    Short Jan14 12puts at 1.80
    Long Jan13 12.5calls at 1.84
    Net Debit : 0.04

    Based off Phil's trade:
    GLW is back under $14 and loveable again.  I think owning them at $12 long-term is a no-brainer so eselling the 2014 $12 puts for $1.65 is free money and then we can buy the Jan $12.50s for $2.20 for net .55 on the naked calls as we wait for the retail crowd to find out GLW is the glass in the new IPhones. 

  23.  greek banks -11.0%, entire index -5.0%

  24. FWIW……FOSL was noted on the Options Review tab yesterday….and that bear put ratio spread…..not sure that it will work out though, cause they blew right through it.

  25. Volatility / Lunar – There are 3 basic spreadsheets in the volatility study – weekly, monthly and daily. They all have the same format. 

    First column – Ticker symbol
    Second column – Date of the price
    Third column – Closing price at that date
    Fourth column – Percentage change

    Then you have 4 sections organized the same way:

    Vola 5/10/50/100 – The average change in the period (week, month or day) over 5/10/50 or 100 periods. For example, in the weekly spreadsheet, the Vola 5 column shows the average weekly change (up or down) for that symbol over the last 5 weeks. Same is true for the other periods. So the Vola 50 will show you the average weekly change over basically one year!

    The P and C columns show you the predicted closing price at the end of the period based on the historical volatility.

    For example, in the Weekly Options 5-5-2012 (for this week), if you look at AAPL, it shows that over the last 50 weeks AAPL has moved on average 2.94% per week which means that AAPL should stay between $548 and $581 this week.

    Of course, these are only statistics and should be used as such, but they do provide some good guidelines! The monthly sheet can be used for example to sell strangles. Let me know if you have any questions.

  26.  consumer credit huge red flag yesterday
    gas prices dropping weekly retail sales big deceleration yet consumer credit soaring

  27. ARNA / Pharm – Quite a pop today, i am holding the May 2.5/3.5 Call Spread. Should i sell or you expect more strenght? Thanks!

  28. The before open lack of action has progressed into some accumulation on the short side and large blocks getting out witout the normal BOT action with it. An evil side of me wants some rich guys to loose money but like yesterday direction is not clear, could go either way.Trendline support at 78.60 is mostly holding.

  29. Can anybody tell if this move down has any volume?  TIA.

  30. I have to head off to meeting but, barring some announcement – I don't see much changing until the EU close (if then) as reality gives the Global markets a big old smack in the face. 

    DMND up 3% today!

    Fair value/Haschade – That's tricky.  We're not done with earnings yet but, as noted above, we have a 40% miss rate this season.  I think if you take QE off the table, then we're back to our old Big Chart – which I was loath to move in the first place as I felt that did reflect the fair value levels for the S&P before all this idiocy took us higher.  Those Must Hold levels were Dow 12,170, S&P 1,297, Nas 2,733, NYSE 7,866 and RUT 724 but, of course, certain fundies have changed in the past Q, especially including AAPL's huge contribution to the Nas and S&P but still, I think reality is a little closer to our original Big Chart levels than the Federally Funded levels we've been forced to use more recently.

    USO/Yeshen – But not without our Long Put List – Wheeeeeee!

     FAS Money/Newt – As long as you have the short hedges, then almost any time is a good time.  We discussed this yesterday.

    $25KP/StJ – I agree with closing out TNA and SCO as they are not pointless.  Also in $5KP, the short calls are .05 and may as well be bought back just in case we bounce and have the flexibility to get out.  As to SQQQ, I'm in no hurry as we're back "on track".  As long as the Dollar stays over 80 – not much danger of a quick market reversal.

    Consumers/Angel – They are flat out of money.  These are those annoying fundamentals I keep droning on about – if you don't pay your workers they eventually get to the point where they can't buy anything anymore and the top 10% may be stock rich – but that doesn't do much for the purchases of durable goods and consumer staples (or commodities for that matter).  It's amazing to me how people just don't seem to get this stuff…

    OK, later all!

  31. Phil – LNKD puts doing brilliantly.  Do you see a bottom on this?

  32. PCLN / Dpas – Historically, PCLN moves 9.8% post earnings. They are expected to report $3.94/share but the whisper number for them is $4.31 so many expect a beat out of them!

    The weekly straddle currently predicts the same 9% for now which means that your 780 calls are at risk and 800 is borderline. Using the deltas as guide, I would not touch the weeklies on the put side and you would need to go as far as 825 on the call side. You could also go to May expiration (10 days from now) and go with a 615/850 strangle that gives you 15% on either side and pays about 10% of margin. 

    I don't have to tell you that that is a dangerous stock to short either way – ask Jabo. The price itself makes it margin intensive if you have to roll…. I am not playing it myself and I would recommend staying away!

  33. $25KP SQQQ / Phil – We are going in the right direction but I was worried about the reverse split that will make it harder to trade our position as the old options will be thinly traded (they are already!).

  34. $25KP Alert

    The PCLN Jul 620 puts are now showing close to a 50% gain.

  35. Pharm – I was ruminating on my CLDX. Thinking of rolling the Aug 5 short puts to nov for a few cents credit and lower delta. Your thoughts?
    Also it looks like an Aug or Nov 3/4 call spread selling the 3 put could cost about .20c. Any thoughts on that one?

  36.  awhile back Phil recommended selling MCD 90 puts as an offset. They are on sale today.

  37. Hi Pharm.
    What's your thoughts on ZLCS @ .93?  Thanks

  38. $25KP Alert

    The GLL puts are up 75%

  39. PCLN/ StJ: I see that too… very tempted to sell these… what are you thinking?

  40. PCLN / Newt – Earnings tomorrow… don't get involved now.

  41. PCLN/ StJ:  Expecting a miss?

  42. Wow, go to Vegas for a long weekend and little excitement and the markets get exciting!  Wasn't there some Phil indicator that says when he's away, the markets tank?
    DJI is on a support at 12,840 (2011 high) a breaking that could take us back down to the 12,700 level.

  43. MCD — Broke the 200D SMA and found support at the 200D EMA. I'd wait and see which one it violates before entry.

  44. My long puts on KORS finally paying off.   

  45. PCLN
    Phil posted a sell of 3 @16 the other day that did not fill.  I closed three this morning as earnings are tomorrow, as noted above.

  46. Good morning VIX, nice to see you up over 20.

  47. and where the hell is Jabo?

  48. Pharm – have you read ARNA's documents they released? I cant find them online… If so, would you say they are positive for ARNA's chances (the market seems to think so)? If they are recommended for approval on Thursday how high do you see them going? A market cap close to VVUS after their recommended approval would put them around $10, is this realistic?

  49. PCLN / StJ  - Many thanks for your time stJ and for the advice. Will probably follow it,. Can i ask you something else on PCLN? I currently hold 560$ Jul Puts and are profitable. Should i sell them before earnings? I am worried that the drop in vol will decrease their value. Is my understaning correct? Cheers!

  50. RIO -- breaking down.  $46 looks like a good target

  51. 1342.5 was the pre-market low from this weekend for the S&P futures

  52. Jrom/ Battle:
     how'd it go yesterday?

  53. Jabo- How about a big FU and a wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!

  54. PHil mentioned 12,800 is the Dow target, also 95 oil…

  55. ZLCS – not yet….targeting 80c or better.

    ARNA/depast – I would take them off, why risk the gain?

    CLDX – good by me.  I am thinking of doing the same, but may wait a day or so to see if we can get VIX a bit higher.

  56. PCLN / Newt and Dpas – The whisper number is actually a large beat, but the stock already prices in some of that I am sure. So who knows what happens – the problem is that there are large geopolitical factors in play now and it makes it that much harder to predict – PCLN could beat tomorrow and Greece pulls out of the euro and then the market is down 5% dragging PCLN along!

    In short Dpas, don't be afraid to cash in profits! The Jul puts are not as affected by the volatility increase due to the earnings, but a VIX up 10% does help you… It really comes down to your own personal risk tolerance and greed. As you may have noticed, I am not as aggressive as Phil…

  57. PCLN: I'm greedy… pulling the plug!

  58. Stj: Thanks. For everything the last few weeks!

  59. PCLN / Threeputt – At this point, I would hold on to all 5 puts all day but as they trade around $22.50 now I would set a stop at $20 for 3 of them! And let the other 2 ride as Phil indicated.

  60. Man, the day's I want Phil posting like every 5min….  Time to sell calls or puts with the VIX up?  Time to layer into longs, or put on more shorts?  Uggh….

  61. Looks like a many of the miners being hit — BHP, CLF, FCX, VALE

  62. shadow, what are you seeing?

  63. I'm back – did I miss anything?  


  64. Let's see if the DJI gets a reprive at -200.

  65. Miners are going to be a steal of a lifetime here soon.  Give them a little time.

  66. PCLN / StJ – Major thanks! I am also greedy but will wait for tomorrow.  (and probably will get punished for not being too greedy!)

  67. Phil picked one heck of a day to take off….

  68. Anyone/ Miners: I am long FCX and down $.  Aside from selling calls against it- what is a super savvy way to work it?

  69. Not a pretty intraday picture. All kinds of lines in play – 5%, 2.5%

  70. Phil- No= Just another BOT day- :)

  71. we haven't gottena single FU out of Jabo toady :)

  72. no whee whees until 4pm jthoma!!!!

  73. FU Jthoma!!!
    jk ;-)

  74. today

  75. VIX 20.90.  TLT 119.45 – now that's panic!

    Volume/Robert – I don't have my usual stuff but the Dow looks pretty heavy compared to yesterday.

    LNKD/Jerconn – This drop is a bit overdone at the moment, if you rolled or doubled down, you don't want to be greedy about getting 1/2 off the table – just in case.  I would think they re-test $100 and, if they fail that – who knows?  They are not a bad company, just overpriced.

    SQQQ/StJ – My bad, I forgot about the split – of course we should kill them!

    PCLN/$25KP – Ahead of earnings, sadly, it is beyond foolish not to take that money (up 50%) and run.  Much as I love being short PCLN – the official play needs to be taking the money and running as 5 x $8 is $4,000 profit, which is huge in a small portfolio.  If you want to gamble – leave one of 4 but this is a gift ahead of earnings and we should kill them all at $22.

  76. there ya go- I feel better:)

  77. blew through trendline support then stopped at S2, that may have failed.
    New lower lines witout correction factor, 77.05, 76.53, 75.90, 75.70, 74.94
    Most significant would be staying below 78.10, support 1/25/12

  78. 11:29am, DJIA Volume: 45,139,570 / avg. daily vol.: 131,495,462

  79. Phil — meeting anyone attending the SALT conference?

  80.  ecb's asmussen saying no renegotiating for greece if it wants to stay in euro…says France must implement fiscal compact without changes – reuters
    now we will see if hollande has the balls he campaigned with hanging out of his coulottes

  81. i bet NO..but hope (short the euro) yes

  82. PCLN: Thanks for that everyone.

  83. Phil / Greece — Any suggestions for plays on Greece exiting the euro?

  84. I don't have all the latest numbers but with the big PCLN win, the $25KP portfolio is at $25K!

  85. Hollande / Angel – As I said yesterday he will soon realize who is in charge of finance in France and he got a big hint today!

  86. i think hollande has no choice but to push back or he will be under the blade where madmam defarge !!

  87. Pharm / miners - indeed, some are back to 2009 prices. I bot TC in my IRA during the crash for 4, watched it go to 14, it's back to 4 again.  So much for "buy and hold"!

  88. Rainman/
    FWIW, I would play Greece exit after the announcement (no timing issue)
    Euro should dip below 1.30 to 1.27as Greece exit will be met with some selling panick into USD.
    and then buy 3m call Eur/Usd 1.30 or if FX vol is too crazy high cash long Euro.
    Greece exit is negative Euro short term but it will lead to a stronger currency for the remaining nations (above 1.40 longer term)

  89. Pharm/ YMI: hi.  what are your thoughts on these guys?

  90. StJ/PCLN
    Sorry to bug you.  No rush on an answer.  I stayed with the original PCLN July 560 Puts.  I did not do the rolls.  I sold today for about $3/c profit.  Taking into account the rolls, what is the net $/c profit rolling alternative play (say selling them today at the $20 stop)  I want to keep learning the benefits of risk reduction (which I know that is what the rolls were doing.  Thanks.

  91. YMI – we are in them for about 1.69.  I am accumulating.

  92. Can't talk for the rest but I need JRW back. I spend over 2 hours computing lower lines,miss the drop and the turn. And now have to catch up on the present and I have not computed a correction factor so they maybe off +- .1 to .2%.

  93. Phil – I'm curious if this is the drop you were expecting – to about 12,810 or if you are expecting for a re-test to reach or pass 12,800?

  94. Yawn, good morning.  Flew all day yesterday, and seem to make more money when I can't play around with the account.  Uh,   is there a plan?  Am I too late for XRT, or is this just the beginning of the drop?

  95. Is SQQQ split tomorrow after hour or today after hour thx

  96. MCD/Morx – Always a good stock to promise to buy for a discount.

    GLL/$25KP, StJ – Let's put a stop on those at $1.80.  $5KP too.

    Europe with a really bad close and some of the smaller countries are in freefall.  I jjust saw the map on CNBC – I would appreciate it if someone has a daily rundown.  Athens is down 11% in a week and now at a 20-year low, much worse than 2009.

    EU banks down really hard too, some at the 5% rule and that's WITH the Spanish banks getting a bailout. 

    UK homebuilders down 6%!

    Phil Indicator/Rain – That does seem to happen a lot but that's because I time my trips to be weeks when I don't expect to be missing anything.  This seemed like a week in which there was very little chance of Fed action or EU action due to the elections and, as we know – lack of action is very bad for these markets – where that action is the only thing holding them up. 

    PCLN/Dpast – Yes you are very correct.  The puts carry a substantial earnings premium at the moment and, although we picked July as that premium should not deflate too quickly, unless PCLN goes below $700 – we're not likely to see these prices again. 

    Timing/Burr – Actually this is a very important part of the overall education, learning to apply what we discuss on your own!  I think we were pretty well set up for this drop and now it's just a question of finding that bottom – if it ever comes.

    FCX/Newt – Patience is the "super-savvy" way.  The VIX is pumped up and inflating short puts as is the downward momentum of the stock.  If, for example, you sold the Jan $35 puts, now $4.80, they can be rolled to 2x the 2014 $23 puts at $2.55 so you end up owning 2x at net $22ish (depending on what you sold them for) vs 1x at net 33ish.  If you like FCX and you don't want to own a lot of it for $22 – then you don't really like FCX!

    Thanks for chart update StJ!   Scary thing now, isn't it?  Already we blew March lows on 3 of 5 indexes.

    SALT/Rain – I have seen a few guys who are here for that.  It's a pretty good conference, saw a few guys at Nobu last night although Maywhether was the big attraction, fresh off his fight. 

    Greece/Rain – UUP is the way to play Greece exiting the Euro or FXE short.  Although long-term it may be a good thing – short-term it's just panic (if it happens, which I doubt BECAUSE it would collapse the rest). 

    $25KP/StJ – Up 100% already?  That's almost on the pace of last year's $10KP, which finished up 250%.  Would have been nice if we hit it without all the initial drama but what can you do?

    Expectations/Jerconn – Well this is about the level I did expect the Fed to do something but, unfortunately, I think they have become a bit less effective and a lot less believable as they jawboned QEMaybe for 60 intervening days.  Now talk will not work – only action and the Fed is not ready to take action so rough sledding ahead no matter what and, at this point, we have to be technical about the bottom just as we were about the top – we'll just draw our lines in the sand and see what gets crossed (and why). 

    XRT/ZZ – I thought they would head down to $55 at least – such idiocy at $60, forget $63! 

    SQQQ/Gucci – I don't know but I'd be all out today.

  97. DIA:  I have the May 133 call from the other day- it's looking tough.  Suggestions?

  98. Phil still holding some left overs of DBA will they ever come out of the woods? Bought in Dec 10 Jan13 c for 6.44 now down to .55
    Sold last the Jul12 29c for .50 now .12 Thinking of rolling the long c to Jan14 for a cost of 3.40 and sell the Jan14 caller for 2.05 and to make it a no cost adjustment sell the Jan14 24p for 1.45 That is if there is still any hope in feeding the poor. TIA

  99. PCLN / ccs – There has been 2 rounds of PCLN puts. We started on 4/2 with the 530 and rolled to some 560 then! It paid off then!

    The last round, we started with 560 on 4/20 and rolled to the 580, 600 and ended up with 620. At this moment we show a $3355 profit on 5 of them after all the rolls or $6.71 per contract. Since we sold them for $22.40 our cost is then $15.69. 

  100. Harder for the Fed to do anything with critics like this – from WSJ:
    House Republican lawmakers launched an unusual criticism at the Federal Reserve on Tuesday, scolding the central bank for allowing Congress to shirk its job creating sound fiscal policy.
    The Fed’s easy-money policy and actions taken to boost economic growth have prevented lawmakers from taking responsibility for shoring up the economic recovery and reducing the deep federal budget deficit, some Republicans said Tuesday at a hearing of a panel of the House Financial Services Committee.
    “As the Fed does more, Congress is doing less and in the long term that slows our recovery,” said Rep. Kevin Brady (R., Texas), who earlier this year introduced a bill that would narrow the Fed’s mandate to focus solely on inflation. Currently the central bank has a dual mandate charging it to pursue both stable prices and maximum employment.

  101. Phil  at  11:17am
    I'm back – did I miss anything?  
    No, nothing. It's a yawner of a day, just flat since the open. Nothing goin' on…….

  102. AMX is off almost 9% on the announcement that it wants to raise it's stake in KPN to 28%.  I dunno, looks rebound-able to me.

  103. StJ/PCLN
    Thanks.  Another lesson learned.

  104. CHK
    Below was Phil's post from sometime back on CHK
    ·         CHK whacked back down to $17 despite big move in nat gas back to $2.16.   I like the Jan $12.50/17.50 bull call spread at $2.95, selling the $14 puts for $1.80 for net $1.15 on the $5 spread that's $4.50 in the money. 
    Just wanted to update everyone that this is available today to play at net $0.88 (20% off from Phil's earlier eco), if you missed it the last time

  105. Howdy folks – I'm just back from a week in Waikiki!  One notable thing to report is that Japan is hurting bad.  As many of us know, a large percentage of tourists to Hawaii are from Japan, and this year, their number seemed down and I saw a different crowd, mostly older folks and the exuberant is not there this time.

  106. Phil,
    The new export tax of 25% on exporting minerals from Indonesia… will that affect your thinking on FCX?
    I was looking to buy/write35C Jan 2014/write 28P Jan 2014…..

  107. FTR making a fresh 52-week low…

  108. FCX/ Phil: Thank you.  This is going to be a school session for me- the strategy is new-
    If, for example, you sold the Jan $35 puts, now $4.80, …..I understand the sale of the puts….they can be rolled to 2x the 2014 $23 puts at $2.55 …..Can you explain this a bit to me?  When do I roll to 2014 $23 puts?……so you end up owning 2x at net $22ish (depending on what you sold them for) vs 1x at net 33ish.
    I do like FCX but I am long 1000 as of now @ $42….. OUCH!

  109. Bespoke takes the knife to Buffett…

    Of course there are smaller chances of a bubble with Bershire stock!

  110. DIA/Newt – This is why we have stops.  My suggestion it to go back 3 days and get out!  It is HUGELY important to learn to take losses before they become insurmountable – probably one of the most important things you can learn as a trader…

    DBA/Yodi – See above.  Another guy who doesn't ever stop out?  50%.  50%. 50% (stop me if you have heard this 500 times before) – once a position is down 50% is it useless because you need a double just to get even.  If you are going to make adjustments, THAT is the point at which you MUST make adjustments and, if you are not – then why they Hell are you holding onto a position that is down 50% and needs a double just to get even?  How often does it work that you buy a call for $6.44, it falls to .55 and then you get your $6.44 back?  Ever???  If it's so easy to get a 10-bagger, please let me know that system!  Your adjustment is OK but you could have done much better making that move a very long time ago. 

    AMX/ZZ – Maybe when things calm down.  Also, look at poor FTR – they looked good too before doing the acquisition.

    CHK/Checho  – Good one (I hope).

    Welcome back Peter!

    Export tax/Jasu – It depends how much that sort of thing spreads.  I like FCX long-term but, short-term, they will dive with the rest of the markets.

    Thanks Angel but I was hoping for a simple layout, like the thing in the FT.

    FCX/Newt – Long 1,000 shares and you didn't even sell calls?  Ouch indeed… You are only down $7 and I'd ditch the stock and buy 20 (2,000) contrcts of the 2014 $28/42 bull call spreads at net $7 and sel the $30 puts for $5.20 so you end up in the $14 spread for net $1.80 with $12.20 upsifde potential at $42 ($12,200 x 2 = $24,400), which is much better than you are likely to do holding $35,000 worth of stock and your worst case is you end up owning the stock at net $30.90, which is more than 10% below the current price.

  111. FCX/ Phil: Thanks.  I did sell calls but it is still -OUCH!
    DIA/ Phil: Thanks.  I know….

  112. Phil: borderline spreads
    knowing I shouldn't be holding Mays longs after tomorrow how should I handle spreads, ie M May 50/48 put spread with M at 39.36?   I guess this would be considered "off track" with just ten days to go so should I adjust by rolling the long to June if I still believe in it and let the short 38p expire? earnings tomorrow also AH.  TIA

  113. Bought OXY, I'm already green.

  114. So funny CNBC cannot distinguish between socialist and communist! 

  115. CHK – how would you adjust the CHK bull call spread from April 19th.  May 15/18.  thanks. 

  116. CAT / Anyone playing CAT for a bounce on the descending channel? Cheers!

  117. hard to believe- Charles on Fox Buisness just said- if you are a long term investor buy on weakness but you probably should not do it today- that is somthing new and different from a financial pundent !

  118. TSLA – Down $2.70 today and trading at $29.77
    Earning Report is tomorrow… 
    Great chance to go long on TESLA MOTORS…
    BUY Jan 2013 $30 Call
    SELL Jan 2013 $38 Call
    SELL Jan 2013 $21 Put
    -- Credit of $0.05 for the trade!
    The have ~10,000 reservations for the Model S that will be sold out until ~April 2013 and will start production July 1st. They have already taken final configurations on vehicles up to #253.
    BUY Jan 2014 $30 Call
    SELL Jan 2014 $45 Call
    SELL Jan 2014 $20 Put
    -- $0.00 for the FREE trade! 
    This takes advantage of the Model X planned Fall 2013 launch of the SUV. They have taken ~1,000 reservations for this car. 

  119. Most of my shorts are closed and you're still talkin' that bear talk. Is EDZ still your go to protection?

  120. FTR / Phil – I know you like these guys and fundamentals look OK (for what we can see), the dividend is good but one the rules I posted a while back is that stocks making a 52-week lows are doing so for a reason – momentum is a tough force to fight, up (I am sure Jabo agrees) or down. I would rather be late in the uptrend than face the daily agony of seeing new lows. 

    I am not sure what was in the earning reports that is sinking them 17% in 3 days! The overall market is not helping but they are behaving like a 3x ETF now.

  121. Anyone / Can I get confirmation on this?  
    I want to buy the FCN MAY PUT SPREAD 33/35 @ 0.60.
    To do this I'd sell the 33's and buy the 35's, right?  I don't do put spreads much…..

  122. Bur/FCN
    You are correct.  Spread is about 0.70 now.  You are spending 0.70 to make 2.00

  123. Bur/FCN
    For me, and I play FCN a fair amount, I'd sell a Bear Call Spread.  Something like the 36/37 for 0.45.  Or a bit farther out.  Sell the premium, don't buy it.  But, earnings are tomorrow, so proceed with caution.

  124. I want my QE3!

  125. Phil what do you think of selling naked call weekly on PCLN strike 840 price 150? Impl Volatily is 93% probability otm 94% (TOS) ….  

  126. ZH – "Dallas Fed Chief Fisher says no further Fed easing is going to fix the job growth."

  127. And somehow the dollar is collapsing now!?!?!?! Up .12%!?!?! What a joke. Gimme /dx at 87!

  128. Maybe finding a bottom here – down around 1.25% on moast things.  VIX 21 seems to be top.

    M/Lincoln – I'm not at all clar on the spread as you first say $50/48 then talk about letting short $38 puts expire.  M is  a very strong stock.

    CHK/Terra - May $15 calls are $1.90 and cand be rolled to July $15s ($2.90) for $1 and that's worth it for 2 months.  Once the short $18s expire worthles, then you can sell June somethings like the $18s for .92 to get most of it back but now you are in a better spread than you started with.

    CAT/Dpast – Still waiting for the Asian shoe to drop, be careful.

    TSLA/Itrade – I lost interest in them with the battery issues (full discharge = dead batteries, company doesn't cover).  I like them but don't love them…

    EDZ/Morx – Yes, I still like those.     Closing most shorts is very wise here – mainly cash with EDZ as big downside hedge with the cash to take advantage of bounce – if it comes (not the weak bounce, of course).

    FTR/StJ – Yes, very disappointing at the moment.  I still like them.  I guess other people do not but we won't really know until we check back in a year.  When SIRI went from $1 to .50 to .25 to .10 – I had essentially the same answer to the same statement – I don't really care what people are selling it for – it's worth $1 a share to me…  FTR is worth $4.50 to me and if they want to sell it for $2.25 – I want twice as many and at $1.10 – I'd like 4x and at .55 – I'll go 8x.  Unless something changes drastically in their business model – why should the current price by my guide to their actual value? 

    PCLN/Smala – I like it if you A) have the margin and B) are prepared to ride those calls out of PCLN does happen to jump 20% on you.  It's the same as selling naked puts – never sell a naked call unless you really, Really, REALLY want to be short on a stock for the long-term.

    Fisher/Ink – Funny how we knew exactly what he would say but it still seems to surprise the makets. 

    Dollar/Jrom – Just BS manipulation to put in a fake bottom and lure in the dip buyers.  Cramer and co were telling people not to panic and not to sell their stocks since last week – they don't just lead their lambs to slaughter – they pin them down and wield the knife as well..

  129. Phil / Dollar – Don't forget that they wheeled out Grandpa Warren yesterday so he could tell people to BTFD. 

    Phil/Thanks. I had a lot of USO, DIA, CMG, PCLN, GRPN and even some AMZN and rode the roller coaster for a great payoff when I closed the majority today. Being Patient and believing in the underlying FACTS  is the lesson I learnt.

  131. FTR/SIRI etc.
    You may not care about current price.
    However if you bought them at $4.5 and they plummet to $1.5 – you have to DD or sell puts to to lower cost basis.
    I've learned it hard way. Otherwise one night they may be taken private $2 (with 30% premium to the market price) and I'd have to book loss. Nobody would care that I value them more.

  132. F#CK YOU OIL!

  133. TSLA/Itrade – I lost interest in them with the battery issues (full discharge = dead batteries, company doesn't cover).  I like them but don't love them…
     - Phil — The "Bricking" problem – full discharge of a battery is a huge problem! The roadster is a car that definitely has that problem… the Model S has more alerts and battery management to help avoid a full discharge issue.
      ""Model S batteries also have the ability to protect themselves as they approach very low charge levels by going into a “deep sleep” mode that lowers the loss even further. A Model S will not allow its battery to fall below about 5 percent charge. At that point the car can still sit for many months. Of course you can drive a Model S to 0 percent charge, but even in that circumstance, if you plug it in within 30 days, the battery will recover normally. ""
    Tesla Motors response to the problem

  134. RIGL…ok, now it is time to run!

  135. Phil: bad numbers 
    Sorry, mistake was the M put spread is 40/38, it's a stock I watch and had gotten high in it's range is rationale for position and it  wouldn't kill me to have some put to me.  The broader question is really whether it is better to just shut down a spread when not wildly on track when there remains only 8 trading days to expiry.  In other words should I treat it just like I only held a long put, since the decay is about to really pick up, and be happy with a break even at this point?  TIA

  136. FTR – for anyone interested in the trade idea Phil posted yesterday (long $3 calls, short $3 puts for a net debit of .15), it can now be had for a net CREDIT of .30. 

  137. Blow off spike in FTR?  Anyone know why it was off 10%+ besides bad mouthing it?

  138. Are we back to our usual programming now that the bond auctions are over?
    "We now return the control of your terminals to you"

  139. Pharm – Craig? Did we add RIG to the IRA portfolio?

  140. PCLN-  unbelievable 50% retracement intraday today

  141. gucci— why I never say whee before 4pm.. ;-(
    FU PCLN!!!

  142. Does anyone have experience with a 32 vs 64 bit laptop running TOS?  I need a new machine for when I'm away from the house.  My home system is a 64 bit quad core system that does not run TOS all that efficiently, so I'm curious if 32 bit systems run TOS better.  

  143. well right back over 1360

  144. Jabo — I thought you sqeeze it up from recover your short call :)

  145. Deano – no kidding….

  146. threeputt/32 vs 54 bit TOS,  I used XP with 32 bits on desktop, Vista 32 bits on laptop and 64 bits quad cord Win 7 on desktop.  I can't feel too much different(they all work fine for me).

  147. They may take this to even

  148. Facts/Ksone – Just also remember those facts can get you into trouble if you lose sight of the fact that the markets can be totally fixed as well!

    Cost basis/Lol – This is why we scale into positions, no matter how much we love something.  If you buy 1x at $100 and use buy/writes to knock 20% off, then you are in 2x at $80 and then 4x at $64 on the next 20% off so a stock has to fall almost 40% before you are even below break-even in a simple 4x scale-in.  If you follow that rule for all of your entries, a stock dropping from $4.50 to $3.00 will never bother you – it will just seem like a great opportunity to get 4x for $3!  The other part of that is that, once you have a full position and no longer want to or can scale in – then STOPS ARE CRITICAL before you do end up with a stock you bought 4x of for $3 down to $1.50.   

    Same example is if 4x = $400 and you buy 2x at net $80 and then do another buy/write to end up with 4x at net $64, then you spent $256 for 4x, not $400 and you own the stock at $64 but if you are not willing to do another buy-write and own 8x for another 20% off ($52), which would bring you just over your original $400 allocation at $416 then you NEED to set a stop between $64 and $52 where you take your 4x loss and get out. 

    Since the allocation is $400 and 20% is $80 then you can afford to lose no more than $20 per share so, with 4x at net $64, your stop is $44 tops but, since you aren't willing to DD at $40 to average in at $52, it would be silly to set a stop so low so you set it at maybe 10% of a full allocation, maybe $54 which would be $216 for the $256 you spent on 4x and then you MOVE ON with 90% of your money and find something you do have the conviction to buy and hold as they go lower. 

    If you have a plan and you follow your plan – then you are not very likely to end up with stock you bought at $4.50 selling for $1.50 unless it all happens in very short order.  Even then, as long as you generally stick to 4x allocations, any single position is 1/2 cash so even a drop like that still leaves you with plenty of money to go to 8x (if the situation warrants it) and then you have $4.50 + $1.50 is net $3 per share with the stock at $1.50 and, even if your nightmare scenario has them then bought out at $2, you are down 33% on a full position – not at all good but not so bad for a worst-case scenario – especially if you stick to good portfolio management rules and never have a position that is more than 10% of your portfolio – that keeps your total loss in this "nightmare" to 3.3% of your portfolio – something you can, of course, recover from.

    Big recoveries since the EU close – just like yesterday.

    Model S/ITrade – Well that's a big help but they need to apply that to all their cars.  All it takes is one celebrity to be trapped on a mountain at 2am in his dead Tesla and 500 rich guys cancel their orders the next day. 

    M/Lincoln – Rule of thumb is you shut down a spread with a 50% loss, no matter what.  That's the point at which you can usually roll out the part you own (the $40 puts in this case) with most of your money intact while you leave the short puts (in this case) to expire worthless.  We do this all the time in the $25KP but we can't in the $5KP and the difference that makes in performance is stunning.

    Holy crap – S&P flying up to 1,360 in Futures – index is back to 1,362 as it gains 10 points since 2:15!   For perspective, yesterday the S&P was at 1,360 in the Futures at 10:30 and took until 1:30 to get to 1,370.  Oh, and did I mention that it then dropped to 1,345 this morning? 

    Moral of the story – CASH IS KING – this is a very BS market and these moves are crap.  All that matters is whether or not they can establish a breaking up TREND that last more than 2 days – other than that, all this intra-day nonsense is just noise. 

  149. What I want to know if all the trading is bots how do they make any money and won't it dry at some point??

  150. threeput -
    I have 64bit win7 dual cores with 3MB and 4MB that run TOS fine.  Probably something in your setup.  Use autoruns.exe to see what's loading up at startup and use "safe" services configuration.

  151. Sage – Yes, I believe when there are 0 retial traders and the bots are attack each other.

  152. XLF holding $15 so far but $15.05 not too impressive. 

    FAS Money – Let's buy back one May $100 call at $2.10

    IWM Money – I'm not buying the RUT move up but we should have sold puts as we hit 775.

    $5KP – SQQQ spread gone at .90 I hope.   DMND got a new CEO – let's take this 5% gain and get out at $1.80 and be thrilled as expiration day is uncomfortably soon now.  TNA I think I mentioned buying out the May caller for .05.  June $64 caller is now .85 and we'd love to get back to $1.25 or better so let's keep a look-out.   EDZ is fine as I still think that shoe is going to drop.  GLL we have a little time to see it play out.

    $25KP – Congrats to all the players on a nice double!

    • DMND – Nicely on track again. 
    • XRT – I've regretted this before but let's see what happens tomorrow.
    • BBY – Yawn.
    • SCO – Will expire worthless or we'll be long USO long before that.
    • SQQQ – Gone I hope.
    • FAS – We don't need the money so let's buy back the May $100 calls ($2.25) and now we're super-aggressively bullish on FAS overnight. 
    • GLL – Gold still looks weak and, like the $5KP, we can wait and see how it plays out. 
    • CHK – Disappointing but should pass.
    • PCLN – Gone and I'm super-sad about that.  Had to do the right thing and take the $22 in the hand vs. the $44 in the bush.
    • EDZ – Waiting
    • TNA – Not worred about them but I think we said no point in leaving them open at .05.
    • LNKD – They topped out at $3.80 and we really should have taken it as we had nice profits off the other end of this trade already and, as I said earlier, I don't think, based on our NEW information from earnings, that they are a bad company.  Now they are back at $2 and that's almost a $1,000 mistake not to take money and run this morning.  If we are not out of it – then we'll give it another day or two but, on the whole, time to move on.


  153. Jabo — hope will sell off into closing :)

    Phil/Facts.. The FACT that the market is fixed is the main fact that I believe in.  One that you always point out.

  155. BMRN….those July $40s are ROCKIN'

  156. What a reversal in the RUT.  Insane stick today.

  157. Gucci--you da man!!

  158.  Jabo — do you plan to hold your short call over earning ?

  159. Phil/action
    Would you call today's rally bullish or BS?

  160. yes…but i reduced today

  161. PCLN/Gucci - This is why we do have the one rule at PSW:  ALWAYS sell into the intial excitement!   It's amazing how often that one works out…

    Bots/Sage – Not really because it's surprisingly little firepower used by the Bots to move the broad markets so they can lose $100M moving AAPL up or down 2.5% in a day, which moves the Nas up or down 1% but they have $1Bn worth of Nas futures they make $200M on – that sort of thing.  This is why GS's trading desk AVERAGES $100M per day (with 97 out of 100 days positive) and then you add up JPM, MS, DB, etc. and all their money sucking activities as they unload money from retail wallets on a daily basis and you can see why it's so good to be a Bankster! 

    Facts/Ksone – That is, unfortunately, the sad reality of the situation.  But, on the bright side – we're pretty good at playing along with the fixers….

    VIX plunging like it was assassinated – 18.50.  TLT back to 118.75 after hitting 119.50 at the auction.  Another auction on Thursday. 

    PCLN dropping back hard and fast after that BS move to $730.  I'm glad we're done as we're still $100 out of the money on those puts.

    OK guys – gotta fly.  My day is now going to the Airport, getting on the plane, flying home, arriving at 1am (time difference) and getting up around 5 or 6 to do this all again so, if I'm a little testy in the morning – please forgive me…

  162. Nirvana track for the market today.

  163. and the vix is down…no volatility today!!!

  164. Action/Sage – We ended up down half a point or more across the board – how can that be considered bullish? 

  165. @Felipe
    I have been trading BMY for about ten years and I placed a trade today to buy 5,000 shares at 32.98, which executed just fine.
    Then I went to sell them at 33.25 and for several minutes I watched it as the price rose in pennies till it hit 33.24 and then it went up in hundreths of a cent, up to 33.2499 and stalled.
    Am I being paranoid in thinking that this was a manipulated price in that I couldn't sell it when I changed it from 33.25 to 33.2499?? (Apparently TOS won't accept a sell order in fractions.).
    Any comment apprreciated.

  166. Tough day.  Gave back what I made yesterday.  Maybe I should just charter an airplane and fly around in circles when the market's open — being above 25,000 feet seems to work well.  Yeah, I know, props don't fly that high. Although maybe oxygen deprivation would help.

  167. threeputt – I have 64bit Windows 7 Pro on Core 2 Quad Q8400 with 8GM RAMM.  Don't use TOS.  But you may also want to use the "Autostart program viewer" that came with windows – do a search for it.  Click on the Logon tab at the top and then you can see what is loading at bootup.  To turn things on and off all you have to do is check/uncheck the items listed.  It is real easy to use and test with. 

  168. On daily AAPL chart today's bar looks like a hammer.  Reversal???

  169. Talking my book:  I bought America Movil [AMX] today down 9+% for the sin of proposing to raise it's stake in KPN from 4.8% to the maximum allowable 28% for USD $3.4 Billion.  The European mobile operator has dropped 40% in price over the last 12 months,  AMX has a market cap of $108 Billion, and Carlos Slim knows the telecom business.  KPN is complaining that the offer undervalues the company:   Strangely, it was reported that America Movil went up 4.8% on the Mexican exchange today.  I thought arbitrageurs didn't let that happen.  
    I should've taken some supplementary courses at Wharton when I was at Penn instead of hanging out in the women's dorms, this would all be a lot clearer.

  170. Zero- but hanging in the womens dorm was much more fun and normal at that age- understanding telecom and arbitrage was not high on you priority list at the time- lol!

  171. XRT - SPDR S&P Retail ETF – Retail stocks may continue to sell off, by the looks of massive stakes taken in XRT put options this morning. Shares in the equal-weighted retail ETF are down 1.5% at $59.45 this afternoon as stocks across the board sink. The two largest trades in XRT options today are in the May $56 put, with a total of 55,000 contracts purchased in two blocks at a premium of $0.35 apiece. The put trades could represent hedges to protect long exposure to the retail sector, or may be outright bearish bets that the pullback in the XRT is likely to continue through May expiration. Profits, or downside protection, is available on the position should shares in the ETF drop 6.4% to breach the effective breakeven price of $55.65. The XRT currently trades 11.35% higher than it did at the start of 2012, but had been up as much as 18.0% for the year as of last Monday.

  172. Nice bounces of the lines!

  173. This is for anyone living in Denver—-my son who was part of the Teach For America program is moving to Denver from DC to start a science program in one of the schools—Highland I think—he is looking for an apt near or in downtown—would very much appreciate any input 

  174. Hopefully it spreads like a virus..check out the combo of stocks viewed on the FOSL quote page from Yahoo…

    People viewing FOSL also viewed: LULU PCLN CMG AAPL MA MNST

  175. Savi,
    Wish I could help. Teach for America is a great program. Technology has eliminated many jobs, and over history, lack of means and access has squandered so much potential. If people like your son can spark an interest in the wealth of bright kids who just need to be shown that there is a path. That path should be there, because there is no reason that online college cannot be both high quality and free. We as a society clearly have the resources to make that so. Give a man a fish and he'll eat for a day. Teach a man to fish, and he'll eat for a lifetime! Never more true than now. Hope he finds a great apt!

  176. Savi/  Denver Apartments-  My son lived in a place called Uptown Square about 4 years ago.  It has a great location, but I just read the google and yelp reviews, and they are mixed at best.  You can do some internet searches and narrow selections down from there.  Another area to look is the "LoDo" area near Coors field.  I think it is a little pricier but definately a fun place to live.
    My WARNING to you:  Once he moves to Denver and the mountains, he will never leave, and you will never get him back.  My son, now a Denver resident for 7 years, is marrying a girl from there and plan to live in the area forever.  Denver and the mountains have some of the highest "quality of life" ratings of anywhere in the US and, its always listed as one of the best places for singles.

  177. Savi,
    Stockbern is right, That place is hard to leave. But on the other hand, it's nice to visit!

  178. sparky/stockbern—greatly appreciate your responses—I agree, TFA is a great program and my son seems committed  to helping kids  who otherwise fall thru the cracks—-will tell him to check the apts mentioned

  179. I lived in Denver for a few months back in 2001.  I first lived in LODO and had an apartment in a high-rise building with a view of the front range.  It was an absolutely incredible view.  There was a great nightlife available as well in the area.  However, the commute to my client site in the Tech Center was miserable, so I moved closer to where I worked.  The second apartment was a nondescript complex that was similar to others in the area.

    If your son works in the downtown area, or has a higher tolerance for traffic than I do, downtown is/was a fun place to live.

  180. threeput, yodi
    Another thing I noticed was Google chrome runs TOS faster than firefox or explorer.  And I use the adblock plus extension to block block ads and other nonsense like Phil's rotating globe.

  181. TOS 
    also the thinkorswim.vmoptions file needs to be optimized for your machine.  I just noticed mine was reset??? (not sure how) and I sent an email to support for the latest settings.  This file controls the Java stuff TOS uses for their desktop app.
    I will post their response -

  182. Oil lines for overnight and tomorrow:

    R3 – 100.24
    R2 – 99.06
    R1 – 97.81
    PP – 96.66
    S1 – 95.38
    S2 – 94.23
    S3 – 92.95

  183. Gosh – I guess I'm bored
    David Stockman's investment model
    :DS: My investing model is ABCD: Anything Bernanke Cannot Destroy: flashlight batteries, canned beans, bottled water, gold, a cabin in the mountains."

  184. PHil – silver moving into buying territory, methinks.  Under $29 now, I'd be a buyer of AGQ calls around $26…what do you think?

  185. Recommended TOS settings for dual/quad win7 machines.  Replace thinkorswim.vmoptions with

    Can't stop thinking about PCLN.  At my airline we have reduced some capacity in the last 5 months or so, load factors are very high on Pax flights, but according to the guys upstairs yields are low, and it it is a very difficult environment.  Cargo has not been great, again reduced capacity.  
    We have a lot of Asia, Australia, and Europe exposure.  
    High load factors, meaning more difficult to buy blocks of seats, sounds to me like it would be bad for PCLN.  The weakness in cargo and yield seems like less travel.
    We also may have a pilot recruitment problem which could also explain the capacity reduction, but I think it is the combination of the two.
    I still have the $620 puts today…….  
    I really want to keep them as a bit of a gamble.  Maybe sell all but one.  Feels a bit foolish to bet against JPM and Nomura which I have a high opinion of.  I also wonder if the analysts are just hedging their opinions as PCLN has beat earnings so often.  
    I guess I'll watch the open for the initial sell off and see what shakes out, I have until 4p.m. to decide!

  187. Good morning!

    I slept late but feel good – better than the markets look – that's for sure.  

    Gotta get to my post – we'll have to catch up in new chat but, as we expected, yesterday's run-up was just BS. 

    Dollar 80.125, oil $96.42, gold $1,586 (yay!), PCLN didn't budge – earnings seem to be tonight, not yesterday but I'm still glad we took money and ran.