Courtesy of Mish.
Quick Notes About the Unemployment Rate
- US Unemployment Rate rose .1 to 8.2%
- In the last year, the civilian population rose by 3,653,000. Yet the labor force only rose by 1,307,000. Those not in the labor force rose by 2,345,000.
- This month the Civilian Labor Force rose by 642,000. Last month the Civilian Labor Force fell by 342,000.
- Those “Not in Labor Force” decreased by 461,000. Last month those not in the labor force increased by 522,000. If you are not in the labor force, you are not counted as unemployed.
- Those “Not in Labor Force” fell to 87,958,000 from last month’s record high of 88,419,000.
- By the Household Survey, the number of people employed rose by 422,000. Last month employment fell by 169,000.
- By the Household Survey, over the course of the last year, the number of people employed rose by 2,479,000.
- Participation Rate rose .2 to 63.8%
- There are 8,098,000 workers who are working part-time but want full-time work, an increase of 245,000
- Thus of the the net of 422,000 people presumably hired by the household survey, 245,000 were for part-time jobs.
- Long-Term unemployment (27 weeks and over) rose by 310,000.
- Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be well over 11%.
These numbers and the monthly swings in the numbers are well past the point of believability and will be revised at some point in my opinion.
Over the past several years people have dropped out of the labor force at an astounding, almost unbelievable rate, holding the unemployment rate artificially low. Some of this was due to major revisions last month on account of the 2010 census finally factored in. However, most of it is simply economic weakness.
Jobs Report at a Glance
Here is an overview of today’s release.
- US Payrolls +69,000 – Establishment Survey
- US Unemployment Rate rose .1 to 8.2% – Household Survey
- Average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls fell .3 hours to 34.4 hours
- The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.7 hours.
- Average hourly earnings for all employees in the private sector rose by 2 cents.
Recall that the unemployment rate varies in accordance with the Household Survey not the reported headline jobs number, and not in accordance with the weekly claims data.
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