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Saturday, September 24, 2022

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Frustrating Thursday – From .EUphoria to .DEspair

SPY 5 MINUTE.DE is Germany's web domain.

So I'm trademarking .DEspair to consolidate all the anti-EU statements coming out of Germany this week as the rhetoric reaches a crescendo and goes up from there.  .EU is, of course the EU domain and .EUphoria is where we will store all the glowing pro-EU rhetoric that makes the market rise (until someone in Germany says something).  

It's a typical case of .DE said, SH.Eu said and all the kiddies can do is hide in their room until Mommy and Daddy stop fighting.   

Things were getting silly enough on the plus side as we rallied for no reason at all that we added a very aggressive short position on the Russell using TZA.  My 3:07 comment in Member Chat was:  

Big RUT move makes TZA fairly cheap at $20 and the July $20/24 bull call spread is $1, which makes for a nice hedge and if the RUT pops, you can offset it with the July $18 puts, now .45, for $1 or better or, of course, there's always the TWIL List

We had no long plays to make yesterday as we added them all when the market was much lower (told you so!) and now it has moved to the top of the bottom of our range and we pick up a short – this is not rocket science, folks.  It's going to be a choppy, terrible market until either the EU saves us by tomorrow or we crash and burn horribly and my comment to Members in the Morning Alert at 10:24 was: 

We still need the Dollar to go lower and this morning it's zooming higher (82.80) and keeping us from a better move up on the indexes.  This will go on for the next few days with each syllable uttered by anyone of presumed authority in the EU so – if you can't stand the heat – stay in cash!  

FXE WEEKLYThe Dollar had worked it's way down to 82.50 into the close but now (8am) it's been jammed back to 82.90 as the Euro plunges back to $1.2426 on whatever silly thing someone just said.  Financials are dragging everyone down as they are DOOMED if the EU can't pull things together.

Financials are also hurting as the NY Times Dealbook Blog is reporting that JPM's Trading losses "may reach $9Bn."  I'm a little skeptical of this as it didn't pass fact-checking muster to make the main paper (and it would be a huge story if it did) and the woman who wrote it came from the WSJ, which also often fails to pass fact-checking muster – that is, if they did actually check any facts. 

This new allegation against JPM comes from "people who have been briefed on the situation" so you know it's good stuff, right?  Let's forget that Jamie Dimon JUST testified to Congress that the losses were $2Bn and that just last week, the positions were supposed to be unwound and under control.  

As the article says "In April, the bank generated an internal report that showed that the losses, assuming worst-case conditions, could reach $8 billion to $9 billion, according to a person who reviewed the report."  A person who reviewed the report?  I love that guy!  That guy makes us a fortune when he panics the sheeple out of positions ahead of big moves up.    

XLF WEEKLYThat's jamming our Futures (8:24) all the way back to where they were yesterday morning, down about 0.6% and led down, as we expected, by the Russell. which is already down 0.8% but we're not buying it (or selling it in this case), as oil is still at $80.50 – so we're not talking about economic retreat here – merely rumors ahead of the facts and shame on the NY Times if this turns out to be nonsense – we'll find out for sure on July 13th, when JPM puts out earnings but maybe sooner now as JPM is already down 3% pre-market and maybe will hit the 5% line around $34.75 and maybe we'll take a long flyer on them around there – or just go with the XLF longs if they re-test $14.  

BCS is down 8.6% as British Politicians are talking jail time for those found guilty of manipulating LIBOR (you know who you are!) and BAC is down 1.5%, MS down 1.2%, C down 1%, WFC down 1%…  U.K. Chancellor Osborne tells Parliament that RBS and HSBC (HBC), as well as foreign banks (apparently UBS and C) are also under investigation in regards to Libor.   Court documents in an unrelated case say hedge fund Brevan Howard asked RBS to alter Libor and the bank "received this request without objection."

As part of our review into Libor and the strength of the financial regulatory architecture, we will examine if there are any gaps in the criminal regime inherited by this government and we will take the necessary steps to address that. 

The FSA report is a shocking indictment of the culture at banks like Barclays in the run up to the financial crisis. The email exchanges between derivative traders and the Libor submitters working read like an epitaph to an age of irresponsibility.

Through 2005, 2006, and early 2007, we see evidence of systematic greed at the expense of financial integrity and stability. They knew what they were doing wrong… – Osborne

To top it all off – it's Health Care Day as the Supremes decide whether or not 54M uninsured Americans should be treated like human beings are in other countries or if they are just poor and therefore should burn in Hell, but not before suffering all the ills of the flesh that shall be vested upon them in the land of nothing is free and there is no hope – unless you have the money to buy it, of course.  

Mitt Romney said that even if the Supreme Court does uphold a law that passed through years of debates in Congress and was approved by both houses and the President – that his first goal in office, "on day one" will be to strike it down anyway – so this thing ain't gonna be over until it's over.  

Nouriel Roubini compares this moment to where we were in 1931 – right before the whole Global Economy went into free-fall, calling this a "perfect storm."  If so, our little TZA spread will make a nice 300% so it's hard to know who to root for.  We're still mainly in cash and our bullish plays are more of an upside hedge against the possibility that stocks become more valuable than our cash but, as I said to Members yesterday – it's going to be a very stressful couple of days and there's no reason to play if you don't thrive on the chaos.  

Speaking of chaos – we're still wondering if Obama's 4th Watergate will finally be the one that brings down the administration – check out the latest on the "Fast and Furious" scandal – it's a great distraction while they cancel your health insurance…

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Good Morning!

Oil Lines

R3 – 83.67
R2 – 82.29
R1 – 81.43
PP – 80.05
S1 – 79.19
S2 – 77.81
S3 – 76.95

Going to be a very interesting couple of hours/days. Hurricane force turbulence can be paradise for trading.

Roubini interview on Bloomberg….pretty good one.

Quote of the day:
 
Gov. Rick Perry   "I don't know"….
 
Phil, that was damn funny!  🙂

JPM – string him up….$2B, 3B, 5B, 7B now 9B….there is more there, as they peel back the layers.  The question is, how is MS and CS doing, as they are in much deeper do-do.

Phi / Andy / wish I could sing: Great video of your bro!  Yeah, singers just start singing, no inspiration needed.  There's an old saying that talent does whatever it wants to, genius does only what it can.

savi – Morning – what email address do I send the vegas payment to . ?

Music/Phil – Damn, your brother's really good! I love discovering people who are fine performers that I've never heard of, except it always leaves me ticked off that they often remain largely unknown while a few, sometimes vastly inferior, performers get all the fame. It's a funny industry.

zero – Great quote to pass on to my kids…. 🙂

Phil / Any idea on how the verdict of the SCOTUS is going to impact stocks today?

Phil/Romney
 
Looks like he will have a busy first day at the oval office, striking down health care and attacking Iran on the same day so that no one will notice.

SNTA and ANTH….not so nice on positive Ph2 results.  Looks like air is starting to come out of these little players after all. 

Phil:
Your brother has a fantastic voice. Does he still sing, or is it just a private hobby? For a minute I thought I was on the Love Boat! 🙂

Earnings season preview: Q1 Corporate Profits: -$6.4B vs. +16.8B in Q4.

Romney:
He says many things.

Whats causing /CL to drop from 80.8 to79.7  with no change in dollar/euro?

mrm SDS crazy play…up to 8c!   Now, take me back over $17 and make my day…..

/RB getting crushed as well

I scratch my head about inflation.  There's no doubt that the world needs a pile of it, to make all the unpayable debt go away -The Great Debt Reset.  The populations of Europe and the U.S aren't much interested in taking on more of it, nor the banks much interested in giving it to them unless they have such good credit that they don't actually need it.  Nor does Germany interested in giving away free Euros to Peripheral country citizens. So how will this happen? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RRJ1EPuYkZQ

Interesting post by Springheel Jack this morning.

Springheel Jack.   Let them Burn…..
 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2VXNyCaN3zI
 
😉

so the nazz must be handling the SCOTUS release?

I bet Scalia is holding things up…..

unconstitutional.

Bloomberg says "helath care law upheld" by SCOTUS

CNN says individual mandate thrown out. Interesting that 2 news sites giving out 2 different emphasis

maybe not. So much for relying television!

STJL/25kAGG – one typo – the TLT Sep117 are puts, right?
And, of course, thanks far all your hard work with these portfolios

mandate goes

I'm going to the beach…..maybe a good time for a little stone skipping….

CNN wrong.  Split decision, but it seems the whole bill was upheld.

typical political move two different decisions they vote after lunch again and reset in the direction of the public polling going on now

YEAH MAD MEN!!

Yes, Rexx, they are puts! Thanks.

I also corrected one the 25KPA which has 50 of the QQQ calls at $0.08. Hectic morning for me and the internet connection at my vacation condo is not holding up well.

Great upheld—Roberts joined the liberals?   huh!!!!–his Harvard prof was right

WoW!  John Roberts goes with the majority!

mandate as a tax is ok but not as a penalty?
isn't this crazy no one has it right yet..without the penalty its going to be interesting

I don't believe it! John Roberts joined the liberals!

cool….

 right…so its upheld but as a tax i guess….which makes it a loss for basically everyone..ha
 POLITICALLY

Huge victory for the President and for health care….6-3 vote!

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