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Thursday, August 18, 2022


Frustrating Thursday – From .EUphoria to .DEspair

SPY 5 MINUTE.DE is Germany's web domain.

So I'm trademarking .DEspair to consolidate all the anti-EU statements coming out of Germany this week as the rhetoric reaches a crescendo and goes up from there.  .EU is, of course the EU domain and .EUphoria is where we will store all the glowing pro-EU rhetoric that makes the market rise (until someone in Germany says something).  

It's a typical case of .DE said, SH.Eu said and all the kiddies can do is hide in their room until Mommy and Daddy stop fighting.   

Things were getting silly enough on the plus side as we rallied for no reason at all that we added a very aggressive short position on the Russell using TZA.  My 3:07 comment in Member Chat was:  

Big RUT move makes TZA fairly cheap at $20 and the July $20/24 bull call spread is $1, which makes for a nice hedge and if the RUT pops, you can offset it with the July $18 puts, now .45, for $1 or better or, of course, there's always the TWIL List

We had no long plays to make yesterday as we added them all when the market was much lower (told you so!) and now it has moved to the top of the bottom of our range and we pick up a short – this is not rocket science, folks.  It's going to be a choppy, terrible market until either the EU saves us by tomorrow or we crash and burn horribly and my comment to Members in the Morning Alert at 10:24 was: 

We still need the Dollar to go lower and this morning it's zooming higher (82.80) and keeping us from a better move up on the indexes.  This will go on for the next few days with each syllable uttered by anyone of presumed authority in the EU so – if you can't stand the heat – stay in cash!  

FXE WEEKLYThe Dollar had worked it's way down to 82.50 into the close but now (8am) it's been jammed back to 82.90 as the Euro plunges back to $1.2426 on whatever silly thing someone just said.  Financials are dragging everyone down as they are DOOMED if the EU can't pull things together.

Financials are also hurting as the NY Times Dealbook Blog is reporting that JPM's Trading losses "may reach $9Bn."  I'm a little skeptical of this as it didn't pass fact-checking muster to make the main paper (and it would be a huge story if it did) and the woman who wrote it came from the WSJ, which also often fails to pass fact-checking muster – that is, if they did actually check any facts. 

This new allegation against JPM comes from "people who have been briefed on the situation" so you know it's good stuff, right?  Let's forget that Jamie Dimon JUST testified to Congress that the losses were $2Bn and that just last week, the positions were supposed to be unwound and under control.  

As the article says "In April, the bank generated an internal report that showed that the losses, assuming worst-case conditions, could reach $8 billion to $9 billion, according to a person who reviewed the report."  A person who reviewed the report?  I love that guy!  That guy makes us a fortune when he panics the sheeple out of positions ahead of big moves up.    

XLF WEEKLYThat's jamming our Futures (8:24) all the way back to where they were yesterday morning, down about 0.6% and led down, as we expected, by the Russell. which is already down 0.8% but we're not buying it (or selling it in this case), as oil is still at $80.50 – so we're not talking about economic retreat here – merely rumors ahead of the facts and shame on the NY Times if this turns out to be nonsense – we'll find out for sure on July 13th, when JPM puts out earnings but maybe sooner now as JPM is already down 3% pre-market and maybe will hit the 5% line around $34.75 and maybe we'll take a long flyer on them around there – or just go with the XLF longs if they re-test $14.  

BCS is down 8.6% as British Politicians are talking jail time for those found guilty of manipulating LIBOR (you know who you are!) and BAC is down 1.5%, MS down 1.2%, C down 1%, WFC down 1%…  U.K. Chancellor Osborne tells Parliament that RBS and HSBC (HBC), as well as foreign banks (apparently UBS and C) are also under investigation in regards to Libor.   Court documents in an unrelated case say hedge fund Brevan Howard asked RBS to alter Libor and the bank "received this request without objection."

As part of our review into Libor and the strength of the financial regulatory architecture, we will examine if there are any gaps in the criminal regime inherited by this government and we will take the necessary steps to address that. 

The FSA report is a shocking indictment of the culture at banks like Barclays in the run up to the financial crisis. The email exchanges between derivative traders and the Libor submitters working read like an epitaph to an age of irresponsibility.

Through 2005, 2006, and early 2007, we see evidence of systematic greed at the expense of financial integrity and stability. They knew what they were doing wrong… – Osborne

To top it all off – it's Health Care Day as the Supremes decide whether or not 54M uninsured Americans should be treated like human beings are in other countries or if they are just poor and therefore should burn in Hell, but not before suffering all the ills of the flesh that shall be vested upon them in the land of nothing is free and there is no hope – unless you have the money to buy it, of course.  

Mitt Romney said that even if the Supreme Court does uphold a law that passed through years of debates in Congress and was approved by both houses and the President – that his first goal in office, "on day one" will be to strike it down anyway – so this thing ain't gonna be over until it's over.  

Nouriel Roubini compares this moment to where we were in 1931 – right before the whole Global Economy went into free-fall, calling this a "perfect storm."  If so, our little TZA spread will make a nice 300% so it's hard to know who to root for.  We're still mainly in cash and our bullish plays are more of an upside hedge against the possibility that stocks become more valuable than our cash but, as I said to Members yesterday – it's going to be a very stressful couple of days and there's no reason to play if you don't thrive on the chaos.  

Speaking of chaos – we're still wondering if Obama's 4th Watergate will finally be the one that brings down the administration – check out the latest on the "Fast and Furious" scandal – it's a great distraction while they cancel your health insurance…


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this is a business/money blog…….supply /demand………how do you add 50 million to demand with no increase in supply and not expect quality to go down…….
and how come the supporters of the bill except howard dean never mention that the "evil" lawyers werent touched by tort reform. 
the consensus says you cant have health care reform with addressing the supply demand equation and tort reform..
there is a reason the people in canada come to the u.s. in critical situations……..
and to hold up europe with what all has been going on is not necessarily the optimum solution
like rodney king said we can disagree but lets all get along …….the disagree part is mine …….
have a good day…

zerox/self abuse

Well, every case has to be considered on its own merits. In the UK primary physicians are incentivized to get a certain percentage of their patient list enrolled in weight loss or alcoholism programs, and some services may be withheld from the obese, for example in vitro fertilization or knee relplacements,  until they lose some weight..
Inevitably there is an element of rationing  as expensive procedures go first to those who are most likely to benefit. For example a man with a good job and five young children is more likely to go to the head of the list for a kidney transplant than a 90-year-old homosexual with a young lover.
But this is what democracy is all about–the collective will making decisions about how to distribute resources. There is a huge fallacy going around in the US to the effect that human beings are economically independent of each other and of the society they live in,  which is obviously untrue but accepted because people are brainwashed by the educational and media propaganda machine so they cannot think for themselves.

Healthcare, one comment before the bell:
As an entrepeneur  for almost 30 years and has paid for my own health insurance for that entire time I almost gag every time I hear someone in politics say the greatest impediments to innovation are taxes and regulations.  False, it is the health insurance handcuffs that keep innnovative people tied to their corporate jobs because it is so costly or impossible (re pre-existing condidtions) to keep theirs families covered during those frightful first years of any new business.

My question is why don't the same people bitching about govt. healthcare and it's costs, ever talk about the billions and trillions spent on the military industrial complex and the lives lost fighting bullsh*t wars?
I know one reason. It's easier to complain about additional taxes they will pay and then justify these wars, lives and costs, as of price of freedom.
I'm certain, most of those who complain, have their VA, retirement, or job health plan and don't know what it's like to go without…..

Great comment. Too bad many cannot think for themselves…..

1020 – No, a massive "jobs" program.  It is the equivalent of paying people to digs holes and fill them back up, and has probably been useful over the five years of recession in that regard. Although blowing stuff up and killing people in other countries under dubious premises seems less productive that spending the money on bridges and tunnels.  There are probably economic benefits to being seen as a militarily strong country, but having a military larger than all other countries combined makes no sense at all, starves more productive areas of investment, and is more of a giant vampire squid in that regard than all of our corrupt financial institutions combined.  

"..Still it's one step at a time.."
Precisely.  You argue with me and slam me and yet you say the same thing I do!!
And Obamascare IS EMPHATICALLY NOT one step at a time. You're hyocrisy or outright lying is marvel to behold so entrenched in your hatred for all things not democratic party related.
You are the personification of,  "You say I contradict myself.  Well then I contradict myself, I contain multitudes".


No Phil, you do. What you constantly accuse everyone else who disagrees with your rabid lefty polittics of doing.
It's either the democratic party or nothing. No matter what, the so-called lesser of two evils.
I always run the yellow light, unless there is a vehicle coming prependicular to me. That's about as grey as one can get.
The piecemeal approach, had it been done when Hillary tried to abuse her power, by making it all but impossible to vote for (wonder why).
By now, portrability would have been in place for ten years, pre-existing conditions would be in place for at least 8 years, mandatory insurance with some teeth in it instead of some penny ante tax/penalty would be in place as well.  Little by little national changes could have already been implemented and many more would be insured, but no. 
Because like you, this isn't at all about health insurance, it's about— and you're about— only one thing:  Installing democrats as the de facto single power in this country and world. The hell with two party or parliamentary systems, you are a closet fascist.  Or king.

I do get a little irritated at the flashing yellows…. 😉

"…you are a closet fascist.  Or king"
Which works very very well on this Options trading, site wouldn't have it any other way.
But politically, it's more than radical.

flips—I would think you would know by now!!!

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