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Monday Market Melt-Down – Spain Again?

Wheeeeee!  

How great is this?  We flipped bearish on Wednesday's poor Beige Book outlook (not to mention drought concerns and Hugh Hendry's warning that "Bad things are going to happen") and Thursday we noted it was looking a little too much like last July, where we fell off a cliff right after options expiration and my very appropriate comment at the end of Thursday morning's post was:  

Clack, clack, clack – like a roller coaster going up in the dark, we don't know when we'll get that big "wheeee" but we do know it's coming!  

Fortunately, we did not wait with our Long Put List going out in the Thursday Morning Alert to Members at 10:18, with all bearish trade ideas that included these gems:  

  • AMZN Oct $180 puts at $2.75, still $2.75 – even (all as of Friday's close) 
  • CMG Sept $350 puts at $5, now $35 – up 600% 
  • DIA Dec $117 puts at $2.50, now $2.80 – up 12%
  • ISRG Jan $350 puts at $1.70, now $5 – up 194%
  • MA Jan $290 puts at $2.85, now $3.40 – up 19%
  • SPY Oct $120 puts at $1, now $1.15 – up 15% 
  • V Jan $100 puts at $2, now $2.30 – up 15%  
  • XRT Jan $53 puts at $2, now $2.20 – up 10%

So a couple of big winners already and, of course, we're done with those (see Stock World Weekly for more trade ideas) and the way we work our Long Put List is to take those winners off the table and utilize our "fresh horses" for the next leg down.  Don't worry, we won't run out, there are 13 more picks on deck for our Members with AMZN (above) our top choice for this week (also featured with a slightly different trade in SWW).  

Even our aggressive oil puts should be doing well in our small portfolios as well as our bullish VXX trade and, of course, our EDZ and TZA hedges as China dropped 600 points this morning and the Russell is testing our 775 target already.  Things may be worse than we thought they were going to be as 775 may not hold on the RUT and that breakdown can lead us to test our -5% lines on the Russell (760), Nasdaq (2,850) and the NYSE (7,600) as well as our 2.5% lines at 1,320 on the S&P and 12,500 on the Dow.  Failure to hold those can take us right back to our June lows.  

As you can see from the Big Chart, we're simply completing those "M" patterns we saw forming earlier in the month and following through with our game plan as we trade the channel until the channel betrays us.  To that end – we will be looking for some bottom-fishing opportunities this morning but we also have to be aware that we expect AT LEAST weak bounces (20% retraces) off our 200 dmas but anything less than a strong bounce (40% retrace) means nothing and will keep us bearish.  

Fundamentally, as we discussed in SWW and in Member Chat this weekend, it's DEPRESSING – as in looking like the Great Depression depressing – right down to the GOP running Herbert Hoover Junior to promise the downtrodden masses a chicken in every pot if they just get out of rich folks way and let them foreclose on the homes and farms without all that annoying paperwork that they never legally filed.  

Hoover promoted "economic partnerships" between Government and Business to boost the economy of 1928, arguing that the "job creators" should be allowed to work unfettered by regulations.  Hoover championed the "Efficiency Movement," claiming that the Government and the Economy were riddled with inefficiency and waste but, when push came to shove in the great crash of 1929 – his response was to blow off all his campaign promises and RAISE taxes in the top bracket from 25% to 63%, along with an increase in Corporate Taxes that guaranteed Hoover a one-term Presidency and led the way to 40 years of Democratic Rule along with the greatest period of prosperity (after a 10-year depression) this country had ever known.  

Like Romney, Hoover was a very successful businessman who made his fortune in mining and, in fact, donated his entire Presidential salary to charity so, like Romney, he wasn't evil per se – just an arrogant wealthy jackass who was nothing more than a tool of the top 1% who was set up to placate the masses while the carpet-baggers looted what was left of the Treasury.  Sound familiar?

Jobs, jobs, JOBS!!!  That's what this country (as well as the rest of the planet) needs to turn the economy around.  You can give Zillions of Dollars to the banks but how does that help out the families the banks confiscate homes from?  There are still over 4M properties in the US in the foreclosure process and our housing turnover is running just over 1M per year.  

As Robert Reich said on Friday: "The prosperity of Big Business has become disconnected from the well-being of most Americans."  I am anti-Republican (as opposed to being pro-Democrat) for the same reason I am bearish on the market – the long-term fundamentals of their economic policies are BAD for the market.  Why would I vote for people who are going to destroy the economy of this country?

We NEED Socialism (I know, a word that immediately inflames half the readers) at this stage in the economic cycle – just like we needed it in 1928 and to pretend that more Capitalism coupled with harsh austerity measures will make things better sets us on the same dire path this country, and the whole World, followed into 10 years of misery in the 1930s.  It's as simple as that.  This country is DOOMED if we back Romney and the GOP in what is going to be the most important decision made by American voters since Bush "won" in 2000 (and boy did we blow that one!). 

Unfortunately, our fate is not completely in our hands.  The Euro dropped to an 11-year low versus the Yen this morning and near that against the Dollar as well ahead of Spain's 7.5% bond auction which is, of course, disastrous.  Both Japan and the IMF are lowering their Global outlook – pointing to slowing economies in China and India now dragging the Global economy where previously it had been hoped they would provide leadership. 

Sales at S&P companies are up just 2.9% in Q2 among the 119 companies that have reported so far and that's the worst performance since the third quarter of 2009.  Just 42% of the reporting companies have beat sales estimates but 73% have beaten very low profit estimates as a result of stock buybacks and accounting changes we had outlined earlier in the month that mask the underlying weakness in the reports. 

Shares of Income After Transfers and Federal Taxes, 1979 and 2007Overall, US Poverty is on track to reach it's highest level since the 1960s as the "war on poverty" has somehow morphed into a war against the middle class, waged by the "job creators" of the top 1%.  The official poverty rate is heading towards 15.7% of our population, just 0.1% shy of the worst recorded back in 1965.  Poverty is spreading at record levels across many groups (see chart), from underemployed workers and suburban families to the poorest poor. More discouraged workers are giving up on the job market, leaving them vulnerable as unemployment aid begins to run out.

The 2010 poverty level was $22,314 for a family of four, and $11,139 for an individual, based on an official government calculation that includes only cash income, before tax deductions. It excludes capital gains or accumulated wealth, such as home ownership, as well as noncash aid such as food stamps and tax credits, which were expanded substantially under President Barack Obama's stimulus package.  An additional 9 million people in 2010 would have been counted above the poverty line if food stamps and tax credits were taken into account.  Outside of Medicaid, federal spending on major low-income assistance programs such as food stamps, disability aid and tax credits have been mostly flat at roughly 1.5 percent of the gross domestic product from 1975 to the 1990s.

This IS our economy folks – empty promises and Congressional filibusters are NOT going to make it any better and ignoring the plight of the bottom 99% will NOT let you enjoy your dividends because, ultimately, these are your customers – believe it or not you have an obligation to take care of them or, surprise, they won't be there anymore to buy your goods and services.  That's not politics – that's economics!  


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  1. Morning Phil 
    Do we sell all the USO puts ASAP ? !!!


  2. Oil lines are blown out this morning with S3 at $89.22 and oil trading at $88.30 right now. Lines to watch are obviously S3 and then S2 at $90 and S1 at $90.88 if we snap back.


  3. Obama better march someone out to start spewing some BS or this could get ugly.


  4. microflux
    The rule is always sell into the initial excitement.
    Phil
    QQQs looks like a 2 banger, thank you very much!



  5. good morning phil-sww wont open , just reopens your article. 


  6. rookie.  Try here.


  7. currently using etrade and tdameritrade for trading.thinking of switching to option house due to low commissions.anybody with experience using it? TIA


  8. srimirap – stick with TOS, OH has poor executions


  9. pharm-same prob, back to daily.


  10. sww won't open for me either.  i see a blank page only.



  11. I must have a universe of stars day, sold my QQQ64 puts at about 45 seconds in, already a good week.



  12. sww/rookie – I can't open it either.


  13. QQQs/Shadowfax – I sold my TZA. Nice start to the week. Missed getting off a GS short though.




  14. Interactive Brokers and Lightspeed have the cheapest commish hands down.
    Good day today:  SPY put up 373%, MS put up 74%, USO put up 147%, J&J put up 60%
     
    Danka Shen Filipe!


  15. birdman
    Excellent job! My only regret was selling TZA late Friday but I did buy the QQQs after, low premium.
    We as a team must destroy the market whenever we can.


  16. lflan, bought aapl jan13 550/600 BCS for $26.  i intend to keep adding on dips.


  17. Hi Phil
    Thanks for the put list – my AMZN and TZA puts are doing well. Question – I have July 195 PUTS that are already  up 80%. Should I cash out or do you think AMZN goes down further. TIA
    gandhjo


  18. SWW works fine for me using Chrome


  19. shadowfax

     
    I usually prefer being flat over the weekend so I can relax and think about things while out of the fray. But I told my wife on Friday that I just wouldn't be comfortable unless I was short. Always nice when one works out. What's next?


  20. Good morning!  

    Wow, look at the $25KPA fly!  I though we weren't bearish enough but this is good stuff.  

    Clearly we're looking to cash out our winning bear trades – if the market ever stops falling…

    Things are already worse than we thought they'd be with our indexes down about 2% at the open, which is about where the FTSE is while the DAX and CAC are down 3% and more.  

    The Euro held $1.20666 but the Pound is failing $1.55 with 78.22 Yen to the Dollar and the Dollar at 84.05.  I had expected a rejection at 84 and not getting it really freaked out the market but hopefully we stabilize here.   

    VOLUME IS JUST 20M on the Dow – this is NOT PANIC!  

    VIX jumped to 20.38 – up 25% on the day and TLT is back at $131.37 so good panic there but I'm really inclined to start looking for a few bullish plays rather than more bear ones.  

    On the whole, I want to take the money and run on short-term bearish bets as we're right on 775 on the RUT and it is holding.  As a bullish play, the QQQ weekly $61 calls at $1.85 have just .20 of premium – I like those as a play that the Qs hold $62.50 but out if they don't with maybe a .20 loss – 10 in both $25KPs and let's cash USO at $1.30 but leave AMZN puts and EDZ for now.  

     


  21. Remember – it's ALWAYS sell into the initial excitement – not SOMETIMES.  Rule #2 (and we only have 2) is "When in doubt, sell half" and that's to keep you from being a total dumb-ass when you violate Rule #1 because you are too smart to follow our only rule.  If we break down lower – then there will be 1,000 other things to short with the lovely, LOVELY cash we have from sensibly taking the profits on a 2% morning drop.  


  22. Phil,
    3 for 3! Sold on initial excitement and made a double on USO, 70% on AMZN and 70% on SPY options from Friday.

    Thanks and much appreciated for the suggestions.


  23. Phil – I think I finally figured out your "crystal ball" time frame.  You're about 5-14 days AHEAD of what the market is going to do.  It's taken me a long time to realize this, but boy it's been profitable.  I go in when you recommend something at about 25% allocation, and then add to it each day it "goes the wrong way"  Then BOOM, one day it's all good….   The long put list was literally exact in it's timing.  Amazing.  VXX, TZA about 14 days…  
     
    Ok, going to cash out those bear bets!


  24. Last year this time we fell from 1345 on the S&P to 1120 over the period from 7/25 to 8/10.  Last time was Greece….this time it's Spain.  Fiscal cliff is roughly the same.  How far does Bernanke let us fall this year???


  25. If we get much more of this action the euro is going to trade at par with the dollar!!


  26. Is it time to load on TLT puts


  27. If you followed Rule #1, you now get to jam to this song
    Today was a good Day


  28. Pharmboy,
    What do u think of Medagenics(MDGN).
    Do U think they have a good product


  29. I doubt Bernanke will do it again because the first 2 didn't do anything but raise stock prices. Maybe he secretly knows Obama is the lowest spender in 60 years and the stimulus was WAY too small!


  30. spiyer/ TLT – do you have specifics on that trade? I'm thinking the same thing.The weekly 131's are .70


  31. Loading up on some weekly TLT's and QQQ's. TIght stops on both. 


  32. Loaded up on some weekly TLT's and QQQ's. TIght stops on both. 


  33. Oh sorry, I know I was gloomy in the above post but that's a macro view.  Short-term, there's nothing new causing today's move – just the recognition that Spain is still a mess.  We knew that.  That limits how negative I'm going to be about that "news".  775 on the RUT, 2,850 on the Nas, 7,600 on the NYSE MUST HOLD and those are EXACTLY the levels we predicted and they are all right there, right now so it's kind of bullish as the market is doing exactly what we expected it to do on our charts.  

    Now we're looking for those 20% bounces (retrace of the drops) and I'm going to give you the non-spike tops I see (with Thursday being pretty much a total BS spike) and the drop and the retrace on our majors:  

    • Dow 12,900 to 12,600 is 300 points.  60 is a weak bounce (12,660) and 120 is a strong bounce (12,720) – anything less than a strong bounce is still bearish.  
    • S&P 1,374 to 1340 is 34 so 1,346 is weak and 1,354 is strong.  
    • Nas 2,970 to 2,850 is 120 so 2,875 (we round to psychological points when close) and 2,900 are our goals.
    • NYSE 7,850 to 7,600 is 250 so 7,650 and 7,700 are easy targets.  
    • RUT 807 to 775 is 32 points so 781 and 787 are the targets there.  

    Failing weak bounces would be a good reason to get the hell out of bullish pokes like the QQQ above – then we'd just have to sit back and see what happens. 

    FAS Money – Selling 2 more Aug $75 puts for $3.10.  Rolling 10 2014 $14 calls to 15 2014 $13 calls at $2.30 for .55 on the 10 rolls and cash on the next 5 we're buying.  

    $25KPM:

    • F – Fine
    • SVU – Rolling 20 Oct $4 calls to 20 Oct $2 calls for .40 – no more.  
    • JRCC – Fine 
    • USO – cashed out at $1.30 

    $25KPA:

     

    • F – Fine
    • EDZ – Cashing Aug $14 calls for $2.90
    • SVU – Rolling 20 Oct $4 calls to 20 Oct $2 calls for .40 – no more.  
    • JRCC – Fine 
    • USO - cashed out at $1.30
    • AMZN – Fine
    • CHK – Fine (still a good entry) 

    Income Portfolio:  

    • RIG – Let's buy back the 2014 $40 puts at $6.  Will make a good resell if we get a bigger drop and up 33% is a good time to quit.  
    • SVU – Rolling 50 2014 $5 puts ($3.30) to 100 $3 puts at $1.60.  Reason for this is if they get bought out at $3.30, we're screwed with the $5 puts and, overall, it's not a big change in our obligation.  Cashing 5,000 shares of stock at $2.20 and buying 200 2014 $1.50/2.50 bull call spreads at .40.   We have a better chance of getting back to $20,000 that way than doubling down on the stock at $2.20, right?  
    • CSCO – Fine, still a good entry. 
    • GT – Fine
    • X – Fine
    • HPQ – Fine 
    • F – Fine 
    • JRCC – Fine 
    • ABX – Fine 
    • TZA – Fine

  34. Amalfi/ Longer dated for chance to roll like Sep


  35. Check this out guys, 474 Million dollars position in Apple (800K shares at 593)  I am going in..
     
    https://twitter.com/SellPuts/status/227409979446013952/photo/1


  36. Short strangle portfolio,
    Let's use this excitement to roll the shorts down as we may not get the same good price if the market bounces.  Buy back 20 RUT Aug 700 short puts ($2.85) and sell 40 RUT Aug 680 short puts ($1.65).  PM is very handy in these scenarios.


  37. Are we long F or doing something with options?


  38. Found it – 40 F SEP 9C's…


  39. OK, NOW I can chat!  

    Don't forget I have to go be on TV at about 1pm (3:10 at CNN studios for live spot on BNN).  

    USO/Micro – There's a reason we have one rule….

    Don't forget, today is last contract day and we've been waiting for a dump all week.  We got it at the open but greedy to think we get another one or more of one when we have a nice profit and can get back to cash and wait for the next "obvious" play to shape up.  

    You''re welcome Shadow – Congrats on your weekend play!  

    SWW/Rookie – Well you can go to http://www.stockworldweekly.com – the login is the same as the one you have for this site.  

    Or what Pharm said!  

    Option House/Srin – I heard some bad things re. execution issues but that's from ages ago so who knows now.  To me, execution is much more important than fees (within reason). 

    And what Edro said!  

    AAPL tempting off $590 but that's why I liked the Qs before.  

    You're very welcome Burr!  The key is to manage your cash and you will get wins like this once in a while.  That's why it does not pay to take big losses – it's easy enough to get the occasional 50% wins that wipe out 2.5 20% losses – but only if you exercise portion control and don't let trades get away from you.

    AAPL/Lunar – Good call but I would not hold into earnings.  If you get a nice pop – I would at least lighten up. 

    80%/Gandhjo You Greedy Bastard – That's your new name!  Of course you take a quick 80% profit and run!  Since you are new, I will go over our very complicated PSW Rules with you one more time:  

    • Rule #1 – ALWAYS sell into the initial excitement.  
    • Rule #2 – When in doubt, sell half.  
    • Rule #3 – You are a greedy bastard if you don't at least sell half (and put reasonable stops on the other half) and I have no pity for you whatsoever if a bounce wipes out your gains.  

    Clear enough?  If you are up 80% then how much of it are you willing to lose?  If you are willing to be up just 50%, then you can set a stop on 1/2 at 70% and 1/2 at 30% to protect that gain.  If you would rather not blow 1/3 of your gains, then let's say you want to stay up 65% and then you can set a stop on 1/2 at 70% and 1/2 at 60% or you can cash 1/2 now at 80% and set a stop on the other half at 60% to lock in 70% gains.  Only experience will teach you the true wisdom of this strategy but you'll find the times that you wish you had stayed in for a 200% gain are far outweighed by the times where you see your 80% gains evaporate and, even if you stop half out at 80% and the other half goes to 200%, you still average 140%, which isn't bad, is it?  

    You're very welcome Ging – congrats!  

    Ahead/Burr – Yes, that is my biggest problem.  I've been working on it a lot as I used to be too far ahead to do any good on short-term plays (without a lot of rolling).  You would be surprised how much stuff I sit on these days for fear of being too early.  It's very frustrating because things seem very, very obvious to me but there's no reaction for ages until the MSM picks up on it.  Analysts must really suck these days – even the in-house ones.  

    How far/JJ – Clearly the Fed was not willing to save us at the June lows so lower than that is the answer before they feel compelled to step in.  Bernanke is still under the delusion that Congress will do something.  

    Par/Sage – People throw that around but no one wants the Dollar that strong and no one wants the Euro that week and clearly the CBs are willing to over-ride market forces for as long as they can – and that can be a long time.  

    Speaking of which – Dollar ultimately rejected at 84 as expected (now 83.90) and Euro back over $1.21 ($1.2114) as expected and our levels holding so far, as expected.   If we can make it through the next 35 mins into the EU close – I think we may have a good bottom here.  


  40. I dont know who to thank for this panic in Apple! I loaded up BCs ahead of earnings. They just have to keep 600 by friday and i am in for nice cha ching!!  Hope you guys managed to book some trades as well!


  41. TLT/Spiyer – Thanks for reminding me.  10 Sept $126 puts at $1.45 in both $25KPs.  


  42. Phil
    It is nice being more discipline with my trading. Generally, I am out earlier than most, but my results, overall, are much better than they were when I was trying to squeeze 80 cups of lemonade out of one lemon! On the other side, I am learning the value of rolling and turning losses into non-losses or small gains. I so appreciate the time you have spent with me and others who have benefited greatly from your knowledge. Thank you!


  43. MSM/Phil – I don't think they're dumb. But their agenda isn't to inform – it's to sell tooth paste. Most media has just become a carrier for advertising as opposed to having advertising support the media.


  44. Can these weeks get any better?  Love profits on a Monday.  I'm in my highest cash position of the year currently.  Don't want to take a chance of the banksters running the market up at the end of the month.


  45. Peter- just rolling and doubling on the shorts? Not buying any longs?


  46. GMCR and WYNN making year lows.  I didn't put WYNN on the long put list because we were already short them from $105 at the end of last month so I didn't want new people to chase.  

    AAPL/Dpast – They might miss this one.  EPS estimates were revised up from $9.92 after last earnings to $10.35 despite AAPL's conservative guidance.  Everyone ignores their guidance as it's usually low-ball but if there was ever a time when sales were off, this would be the Q as the foreign money coming in gets poor exchange rates and everyone is waiting for both new IPhones and IPads and look how disappointing EVERYONE's sales have been.  I sure wouldn't short AAPL (well, I would if they were at $700) but I think they are a very dangerous long into earnings this Q.  

     

    EPS Trends Current Qtr.

    Jun 12
    Next Qtr.

    Sep 12
    Current Year

    Sep 12
    Next Year

    Sep 13
    Current Estimate 10.35 10.22 46.79 54.39
    7 Days Ago 10.39 10.32 46.93 54.36
    30 Days Ago 10.35 10.36 46.88 54.11
    60 Days Ago 10.34 10.40 46.99 53.90
    90 Days Ago 9.92 10.54 44.37 50.8

     

    Earnings Est Current Qtr.

    Jun 12
    Next Qtr.

    Sep 12
    Current Year

    Sep 12
    Next Year

    Sep 13
    Avg. Estimate 10.35 10.22 46.79 54.39
    No. of Analysts 42.00 42.00 50.00 51.00
    Low Estimate 9.45 9.18 44.42 48.66
    High Estimate 12.51 12.53 51.18 64.06
    Year Ago EPS 7.79 7.05 27.68 46.79

     

    Revenue Est Current Qtr.

    Jun 12
    Next Qtr.

    Sep 12
    Current Year

    Sep 12
    Next Year

    Sep 13
    Avg. Estimate 37.23B 38.04B 161.16B 196.16B
    No. of Analysts 41 41 48 48
    Low Estimate 34.54B 34.18B 154.20B 178.42B
    High Estimate 41.73B 44.15B 171.22B 228.39B
    Year Ago Sales 28.57B 28.27B 108.25B 161.16B
    Sales Growth (year/est) 30.30% 34.60% 48.90%

    21.70%

     

    Earnings History Jun 11 Sep 11 Dec 11 Mar 12
    EPS Est 5.83 7.39 10.16 10.04
    EPS Actual 7.79 7.05 13.87 12.30
    Difference 1.96 -0.34 3.71 2.26
    Surprise % 33.60% -4.60% 36.50% 22.50%

    So expectations are to match best possible growth even though average growth is more like 24% and, again, we are NOT at a logical point in the product cycle where we'd expect above average growth.  


  47. Still fade the rips and buy the dips, isn't it? And oh yes, it's so nice to start the week this way.


  48. Phil – thanks for the lesson on cashing out gains :-) Point understood and taken. Since I didn't have a huge position to sell only half – I am realizing all the gains.
    gandhjo


  49. Penn State/Bird – That's a real shame that the students should suffer (as well as the alumni who contributed that money the school will be paying out) but I guess they have to show how serious this is so the next team doesn't allow this to go on.  

    F/Bird – I'm hoping for good earnings.  

    You're welcome DC – that's great to hear and I hope others take note.  In the end, you get to the same place, but without all the constant aggravation, right?

    MSM/Bird – I'm not talking about their "analysts" but you'd think the big funds would have a few guys who are on the ball but no one really trades on Fundamentals anymore – it's all about the Momos and even the Blue Chips are traded like Momos.  I used to go to the Value Investing Congress in NY each year but it got smaller and smaller and then they started letting guys in who talked up BS trend stocks as "value" plays and I totally lost interest.  That was one of the premier events in the country/world for value investors.  It's like a dead art.  

    Nicely played Rustle!  

    Good job Gandhjo – And see – it already worked out.  Now you can look for other stuff to get into on the bounce if it fails.  


  50. AAPL / Phil – Thanks for this interesting perspective. Thats why i also sold some 570 puts.  Maybe will play it safe and will close the BCs by tomorrow EOD. But i cant stop thinking about the guy that bought 474 Million$ position one day ahead of earnings.  He should know something right? Thats one hell of a bet


  51. spain and italy talking about a short selling ban again


  52. pstas,
    That's correct, we are rolling the shorts.   If the market bounces further, we'll flip some short puts to short calls to save the margin, and/or buy more longs then.  Since we are early in the expiration month, we can do these adjustments easier than when it's closer to expiration.


  53. So buy or sell Sept $126 TLT puts?


  54. SYRIA IS THREATENING CHEMICAL WEAPONS ON ANY FOREIGN ATTACK


  55. dpastramas,
    When did that guy buy the 474 million position? I never heard about that?


  56. Value/Phil – Yeah, I'm a value guy too. My mentor was a really gifted value stock picker named John Mackenzie. I used to think of it as substituting patience for risk.  Doesn't seem to work anymore with the ST algo gaming and high correlation. Which is why I'm learning from you (and a couple of others) how to run track distances instead of 10Ks. Tough to teach an old dog new tricks, but it can be done with constat training.


  57. Phil – What source are you using for the above tables that you posted on AAPL earnings?


  58. Birdman- yes, value is the way to go long term and I was stuck in that rut for many years. Have since learned many new tricks and made some expensive mistakes but value stays in my retirement account (s) and trading is agnostic. However, I admit to a preference for shorts as the profits can come fast and furious. Balance, balance, balance with a bias as the situation dictates.


  59. AAPL perspective on earnings
    First, me no expert, unlike Phil, Lflan and others on this site.
    however, I DO read a lot.
    FROM MY READINGS: AAPL has consistently been reporting earnings between 12-15% higher than consensus. (they did not once in 2011 as we all know). After that "miss", they have been guiding so as to be approximately 15-20%, above their own guidance.
    if that holds, and since analysts are only about 10% above AAPL, guidance of $8.92 (approx),anything AAPL reports above $9.80 or so, should be at least 'meeting the whisper number'. 
    So, look out if they report above $10. The smart and well followed analysts have the earnings between $12-$14?


  60. Gingbaum : check the 1min chart at 09:25.  There is a spike in volume (800K). I dont know if its one trade but the candle is green and the price continued uphill to 600.


  61. Gingbaum: sorry 10:15 Eastern time


  62. cdel360/TLT $126 Put, it's a buy.


  63. DCClark,
    just thought if you were in So Cal, I might have been of some help in getting you to Vegas, possibly…efc.
    good luck!


  64. I'm a Penn State Alum.  This really sucks.  I literally don't even tell people I went there, too much drama.  Thank God I never donated, I gave them enough in tuition.


  65. All weak bounces so far – not very impressive.  

    $474M/Dpast – Rich people can be just as stupid as poor ones.  

    Ban/Angel – Oh good, that will fix everything.  ;) 

    TLT/Cdel – Those are buys, we're bearish on TLT holding this long-term.  

    New tricks/Bird – Value still does work over time, the real trick is, while you wait, to sell premium to all the kids who think they can beat you with those short-term plays.  Take SVU, for example, it's at $2.20 and paid a .35 dividend (and will again one day) but, while you wait, you can sell the Aug $2.50 calls for .15.  Make 12 sales like that a year and you collect $1.80 on your $2.20 investment – what's not to like?  Assume you only get .80 worth of sales off – the stock still has to go below $1.40 before you are in trouble.  Having a long-term view of things can be a huge asset for a value investor – you don't have to trade like the kids to make money like the kids.  

    Tables/Diamond – Good old Yahoo Finance under Analyst Estimates.  YCharts also has very good stuff and Wikinvest too.  

    Good points Pstas!  

    Whisper/Maya – I think the whisper will be extremely disappointed by anything less than $10.  The low estimate is $9.45 with some seeing $12+.  AAPL is a $600 stock so a p/e of $15 means they need to earn $40 and that's $10 per Q.  They cannot fail $10 and keep $600.  I don't think you get over $650 without $11 being broken.  


  66. Phil/AAPL whisper
    there is NO way they reprt less than $10, as that is only 10% above their OWN guidance given at last earnings call, and emphasized repeatedly by them at that call.
    question is: how much above $10 do they report?


  67. Good morning Phil and everyone at PSW: new basic member here. Began following Phil last fall via SA and the publicly available info on PSW, and recently voyeur. USO/EDZ just paid for my membership plus an upgrade for next time :D Thank you sir may I have another! Really enjoy member chat and the trade breakdowns from everyone. Still a long way from 10k hrs but following along in chat and reviewing the educational material has lifted me from the ranks of muppet-dom to apprentice trader. Man I coulda saved some grief had I stopped here first but you don't know what you don't know I guess. No worries though just looking forward to some fun and profits. Thanks Phil also for helping to expand my reading into areas I would not have found otherwise. It's like drinking from a fire hose but I like to read so bring it!


  68. C'mon Mr. Dow! Break on thru twelve seven!!


  69. Phil Holding a Bull call on GOOG Aug 600/620 bought for 20.32/5.50 now 15.64/6.55 thinking of rolling to Dec your thoughts pls TIA


  70. THANK YOU PHIL… Your timing last week on Thursday was perfect !!!
    Just wish I hit "confirm" on CMG, but the other trades have been huge winners. Keep up your hard work… 
    Excited to hear what your BNN thoughts will be tonight.


  71. FAS Money / Dumb to start now?
    I've been waiting for the right time to re-enter FAS Money, and today was the day.  
    Phil :  Selling 2 more Aug $75 puts for $3.10
     
    Well those puts are down to $2.55.  They dropped like a rock right after Phil posted.  So would you wait to tell them?  Just sell 1?
    It WAS a good time to go long the XLF Call though….


  72. Maya1
    Thank you for the offer. But it really is all about my mother at this point and what her next "event" will be.


  73. Phil, what do you think about DF, is it time to get in? thanks


  74.  

    jomptien
    July 23rd, 2012 at 6:17 am | PermalinkIgnore this user
    DC – A2 – Great area, lived for a few years and Whitmore Lake.
     

    mackey
    July 23rd, 2012 at 7:18 am | PermalinkIgnore this user
    dc, just north of you in traverse city
    Jomptien:
    I live in a town, Pinckney, that is very close to Whitmore lake. Where are you now?
    mackey:
    We visit there often. How long have you been there? Love it there in the summer and do frequent quite often (skiing) winter (Nubs Knob, Boyne, etc.)


  75. Phil: HOG
    In an instance where I am willing to keep working a short call position to generate a return on margin, and accept the fact that rolling out in time will be a part of the plan how should I be thinking about a position like the following?  50 short HOG Aug 45 calls with aprox $6,000 of premium left on $60,000 margin so 10% possible return for the month.  I feel 45 to 50 is an upper range for HOG and wonder if it would ever make sense to roll calls even when they are all premium right now? For example roll to Sept for another $3,200 or even out to Jan for additional $11,000.  The question would apply to a few other positions as well and I’m just trying to think like the “house” and if a gambler comes to me today willing to pay more premium for more time would that be a smart  offer for me to accept?  I know in the past you have said such a move would give the caller more time to “burn” me but I have the margin and patience to accept that risk for additional reward. Or is there a smarter way to look at such a  situation like just letting the Aug position play out  and then scale back into a new position if justified?  TIA


  76. Weak bounces not holding do done with QQQ weekly $61s at $2.20 in both $25KPs – not worth the risk. 


  77. ADM – Jan 14 $20 puts have bid at $1.53.


  78. jophil / DF -- Nice bounce on the 200 SMA but all the protein stocks have been damaged lately (HRL, TSN, SFD, SAFM). I'd wait until the crop reports stablize or you see more than DF make a turn. (disclaimer: long DF @ $5.20).  


  79. Thanks dpastramas, that sure was a pop, wow.


  80. Lincoln / HOG — Don't forget what the theta burn chart looks like.  Having said that, I like to roll out in time when the VIX is high to lock in higher premiums for longer periods.  I don't think 20 is that high though.


  81. Welcome Rebelscum (great name!) and congrats on trades!  That's why we give out samples…  Don't worry, I'm back from vacation and in the mood to pontificate again so we'll be covering a lot of ground this summer – welcome aboard!  

    GOOG/Yodi – Gosh, we lost interest in those on earnings day.  I'd say cash out ahead of AAPL and then you can go bullish on GOOG if AAPL lifts the Nas as GOOG should follow them up.  

    Perfect/Itrade – I thank you sir!  We'll be discussing AMZN being my favorite short and SVU and HPQ my favorite longs as far as I know.  

    AAPL/Diamond – Patent law is baffling to me.  I would have thought they could have enforced those patents 5 years ago and stopped competition before it started. 

    FAS Money/Burr – No, that one is always a good time as the long XLF play is merely a backstop for the next premium sale.  If you have sold none of the $75 puts, then I like selling 2 but if you already sold 2 then $2.55 isn't worth the press the way $3.10 was.   The reason I liked the DD was BECAUSE $3.10 was overpriced and we – what?  ALWAYS sell into the initial excitement.  The goal is that you can follow that portfolio and, after you put in your 10,000 hours – you won't need me to tell you that – it should be a reflex!  

    DF/Jop – It does seem to be an overreaction and they held the 200 dma at $12 but just a weak bounce so far and I am no crop expert so it's a lot of roulette to me where the value is on these guys.  Long-term, I'd say it's a good opportunity at $12 but not good for a short-term trade as it could go to $8 as easily as $18.  I think selling the 2014 $10 puts for $1.40 is a very reasonable net $8.60 entry and, if you plan on a DD if the stock drops $4 and the puts go to $4, then you have 2x at net $2.70 and a $7.30 net entry on 2x and, if you don't believe in them enough to commit to that – why would you make any bullish play at all?  

    HOG/Lincoln – I don't like HOG because it is essentially a luxury item people might cut back on and, since they are bought on credit – if we have a credit crunch, they drop like a rock because they are not in a position to offer bail-out financing like the auto majors can.  I agree with the idea of shorting them but they were just at $54 in April and, if we get stimulus, they will be again so, to me, it's not a compelling short either.  With your logic and my prudence, I would keep them on a watch list and IF they have a run back towards $55, THEN I would look to sell the $60s to some sucker willing to pay up for them.  If not – 8,999 other stocks to look at.  

    Testing weak bounces again.  

    Dollar cooperating down at 83.80 – nice and bullish if that fails but that's $1.215 on the Euro and that may be a bit much to ask.  

    $88 was a good bottom for oil – congrats to all the players on that one!  


  82. Oh, I'm heading out soon but, if we get a good recovery – /NKD is at 8,470 and that makes a nice momentum trade if they get over 8,500 as that line should give you nice support for a stop.  This would be only if our markets break the weak bounce and look like they have the juice to make the strong bounces (10:29 comment).  


  83. Getting crowded on the RUT chart as the 50 DMA is at 776, the 200 DMA at 774 and we are trading at 778! Something is going to give!


  84. AMZN/Phil – Sold my AMZN puts shortly after the opening (thanks, nice win). I'd like to be short for the earnings on Thursday as I think they will guide lower. What puts should I be looking at for this little Street darling?


  85. Anyone else having a hard time getting stop market orders filled with TD? Kinda scary when they blow right through the floor. Is there a better strategy?


  86. I am trying to imagine how much this could help the economy if that was distributed:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-22/wealthy-may-hide-as-much-as-32-trillion-offshore-report-says.html

     

    Wealthy individuals may have been hiding as much as $32 trillion offshore at the end of 2010, according to Tax Justice Network, a U.K.-based organization that campaigns for transparency in the financial system.

    The estimate is almost three times the organization’s last estimate of $11.5 trillion in 2005. Fewer than 100,000 people own $9.8 trillion of offshore assets, according to the research, carried out by former McKinsey & Co. economist James Henry.

    There is a “huge black hole in the world economy” of untaxed private wealth, Henry said in a statement. “The lost tax revenue implied by our estimates is huge.”


  87. AAPL
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-23/apple-growth-seen-pausing-as-iphone-buyers-await-model.html
    This is a good, and I think accurate read on the quarter.  They also don't mention a few things in here:  
    1.  The Ipad2 roll out was delayed in China because of the name dispute:
    http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/12/07/10/apple_to_launch_new_ipad_in_china_on_friday_july_20.html
    It is questionable how Chinese consumers reacted to this delay.  Given that China is Munster's ace in the hole this quarter, that's a worry.
    2. This transition effect from one product to the next also happened last year.  In this article there is a good chart on that effect.  http://www.asymco.com/2011/12/09/estimates-for-apples-first-fiscal-2012-quarter/
    It boils down to how well you think the transitions this year is baked into the estimates.  I look at that chart from last year, and I see increasing Vol in quarter to quarter performance.


  88. PHil, are you still predicting a cataclysm for Wednesday?  Up tomorrow and off a cliff Wed?


  89. SBUX / Phil
    I'd like to go long on SBUX.  I see them high 50's low 60's by year end.  What would be the proper BCS with a short put to help pay for it.  TIA


  90. jerconn / what's happening Wed?


  91. Hello All – Phil, would you be interested in any GLW options plays here?  TIA


  92. Amalfi/TLT,
    Which weekly TLT Put did you load? Did you go for a PUT spread?
    Thanks


  93. Amalfi – good question…before the weekend someone asked Phil what he sees happening this week.  He said down today (check), clawing back Tuesday (already happening) and watch out below Wed…I suspect all on the thesis that without QE3 nothing to hold up the market plus nothing positive happening on a macro level to prop things up…plus seasonally this is often when the market gets derailed…I think it's a good time to get defensive, just want to know if Phil still thinks so…


  94. Phil / Nice call on the QQQ's this morning. I'm out with a 20% gain. Not getting greedy. Will lay back with these TLT puts for now. 


  95. Phil,
    See any play on XRX with their recent dive?


  96. pat_swap / they were July 27's. Naked puts. Had a tight stop on them. Managed to get a 8% gain nonetheless. I'm holding tight with the Sept. 126 naked puts through tomorrow. May get out before Wednesday if Phil is right about 'look out below' Wednesday.


  97. jerconn – thx for clarifying. may be a good idea to pick up a few puts tomorrow, assuming the market goes up a bit from here.


  98. Missed the QQQs – $1.90 by the time I got there. Kind of a pathetic bounce, at least so far. I'm 95%in cash.


  99. Amalfi – Stops
    Try using a stop limit or trailing stop limit, these get filled before the stop market trades.  Put the limit .10 or .20 below the stop.


  100. Pharm - check out MNTR, an interesting index for playing small biotechs.  You could buy at .22 and sell at .42 four times in a row recently, wacky!


  101. Looks like stubborn resistance around 12,700.


  102. Thx edro. 


  103. IRA Portfolio Update!

    the ACI JUL CALL's expired worthless so today we covering with the AUG 7 CALL's.  The actual trade is,

    SELL 5 ACI AUG 7 CALL for $0.22.


  104. Is anyone invested in NLY? 


  105. Inkarri19
    I have several positions in NLY and have been trading it for a few years.


  106. Perhaps I am an outlier here, but I think the Spain issue is just getting rolling.  The German parliament's "approval" last week of their part of the "direct bank bailout" made it clear the Spanish government would be on the hook.  That was a very big deal, even though the markets ignored it at the time.  Frankly, I'm surprised the dollar isn't up more…but I believe it soon will be.
     
    I would be interested in hearing from some of you chart experts; what is the relative strength of this bounce?  Do you see conviction?  


  107. AMZN/Bird – Same thing, you might want to start with the Oct $185 puts ($3.85) and look for a cheap roll back to the $200 puts, now $6.60 for maybe $1.80 or less, which you should be able to get on a $5 move up in AMZN.  In fact, let's do 5 of those with that roll in the $25KPA.  

    Stop orders/Amalfi – Scale out instead.  

    Hidden cash/StJ – Yep, that's 1/2 a year's entire global GDP or enough money to boost the global GDP by 10% for the rest of the decade.  Black hole is exactly how I describe these giant pools of wealth that do nothing for society other than suck more cash out on a yearly basis.  

    AAPL/Occam – Makes sense.  All I have been saying is that this is a very dangerous Q to be gung-ho bullish on AAPL's earnings. 

    Cataclysm/Jerconn – Depends what BS rumors drive us up tomorrow and if there is any actual action by Weds.  Still the likely outcome.  

    And what Jerconn said I said!  

    SBUX/CCS – Wow, that's a real bargain you've scoped out, down almost 20% after being up 100% from last year so only up 80% now.  Are sales 80% higher or are profits?  What's the ahead of the curve growth you see against rising food prices and injured consumers that justify a 30x p/e?  Once you let me know those things – then we can come up with a good spread to waste your money on!  

    GLW/Ink – Very much so.  $12 has been a good floor for them and you can sell 2014 $10 puts for $1.30 for net $8.70, which seems like a pretty cheap entry to me. 

    QQQs/Amalfi – Yep, that's the way to play them.  

    XRX/Rms – I'm running out the door but remind me tomorrow and I'll look them over.  I'm not even sure how they make money anymore.  

    OK, I'm off to NYC – have fun! 


  108. XRX/Rms – i was looking at them over the weekend. Don't like where they are at right now. Way under downward sloping MAs on pretty much all timeframes. Testing lows from last october, and it breaks that, next stop may be around 5.50, at which time, i might consider selling $4 puts if VIX is up, and if those got put to me, then do a buy/write on the shares i get. Basically, there are LOTS of other stocks out there… 


  109. Mr stick will u break 780 on Rut please?


  110. MNTR/mrm – I have no idea what they do, nor what they have.  Cancer drugs, and a holding company…not really worth my 22c.  I would rather buy GTHP.


  111. What show is our fearless leader going to be on? Live? What time?


  112. Well, we can't say this is unexpected…US poverty reaching 40 year highs…
    http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/u-poverty-hit-highest-level-40-years-165914572.html


  113. Guys – new to the forum. Can someone translate:
     
    AMZN/Bird – Same thing, you might want to start with the Oct $185 puts ($3.85) and look for a cheap roll back to the $200 puts, now $6.60 for maybe $1.80 or less, which you should be able to get on a $5 move up in AMZN.  In fact, let's do 5 of those with that roll in the $25KPA. 

    I can see a buy on the AMZN $185 Oct PUT sure – but what's rolling the 200 PUTS mean?!!


  114. MSB HEARTS APPLE AGAIN!


  115. INTC/Phil – has the worm turned? lost old high from 2007, breaking down under weekly 30MA, which is flattening, hitting 50MA. if we get a rally tomorrow, maybe time to sell ATM calls against any LT postions here, or just get out?


  116. Birdman
     
    BNN, a canadian business channel (sort of like CNBC, but a little better IMHO)
    I think Phil mentioned he'd be on about 3:10 pm, which is a pretty typical time for his appearances.
     
    I don't think it is streamed live on the Net, however, you can usually find the replay available on the BNN website within a couple hours of the appearance. It can be quite difficult sometimes to actually FIND the page with the replay, their website is organized (I use the word very loosely) in a very bizarre way.
     
    Often times, somebody here will post a direct hyperlink to the actual page, once they get it sorted out.
     
    I don't know what US cable channels broadcast BNN, if any. Does anybody know?
     
    hope that helps. If I'm wrong on any of the details, somebody please correct me.


  117. Mackey, I lived in that area during my college years in the 60's and now in Thailand for the past 9 years.


  118. Pharm / GTHP - thanks. I'm in at 0.71 from your advice a year ago, I'll pick up some more on a dip.


  119. jomptien, live on lk leelanau been here since 78. whitmore lake is nice. why thailand? vet?


  120. This market has been flatlining since noon. How boring.


  121. markilus – Phil means your next move is to roll the Oct 185's to the Oct 200's for $1.80 or less, which should occur if AMZN moves up $5.


  122. Pharm how do you feel about MNKD


  123. AMZN/markilus – Phil means your next move is to roll the Oct 185's to the Oct 200's for $1.80 or less, which should occur if AMZN moves up $5.
     
    About about a $3.10 debit right now.


  124.  abc news running article "how apple's phantom taxes hide billions in profit" just now…YOU KNOW AS OPPOSED TO GE WHO PAYS NONE AND BORROWS FORM THE TAXPAYER..VIVA APPLE!!


  125. if this whole thing crashes, I'm ready. I've run up a whole bunch of puts on AAPL PCLN LULU SBUX FB PNRA WFM and AMZN.


  126. MNKD/sage – well, they are backed by the "Solar" guy.  Not a big fan, as PFE tried that with Exhubera…..but why not take a stab at a nice upside play that costs very little to play.  Data are due next year sometime.  How about the Jan14 $3/4 BCS, with the sale of the November $2s for a nice, lazy 3c on the $1 spread…..How about them beans!


  127. ARNA - I bot some AUG calls expecting they would pop on the VVUS announcement, whether positive or negative.  I was wrong so far, but they are bullish engulfing today so going to DD here and see what happens.


  128. puts – oh and LNKD. Still looking at 713 p/e as a little ridiculous.


  129. I like dem beans!  Thx Pharm.
     
    I have a personal interest as a diabetic but wouldn't touch an inhaler until about 10 years of mass use data, but the size and the claim that you can take without food is pretty compelling when I am sick my sugars go nuts.


  130. Just shorted GS. Tough to bet against a company that controls the world but the charts are just too good. Maybe David will win this one against the mighty Goliath.


  131. GS just sent out on the wires to buy homebuilders….man, oh man….


  132. GS/Pharmboy – GS must want to take some profits.


  133. ARNA/mrm – big straddles on them at the Sept $10, so they may be there a while. I would sell some Sept $8 Pts.


  134. Pharmboy / Yeah, that totally makes sense. I guess that's why I saw every other house up for sale when I was in the Hamptons last weekend. I figure that the 1% is probably more aware of a looming market crash, which will most certainly effect the housing market.


  135. Amalfi/Pharm – I was driving through an affluent part of Los Angeles and was also amazed to see the number of homes for sale in that neighborhood. 


  136. Love this stick!


  137. aapl is on the move


  138. Oh, what a mockery.  Phil notes that there was no reason for this drop this morning…but then again, there is no reason for the market to have it's head in the clouds either….Out of MS shorts for now. 

     

    YMI…selling more Jan13 2.5 Ps.


  139. FAS - nibbling at the SEP 86 puts, will cover on up days and uncover at EOD like I do with most long puts; I'm expecting that bad news in Europe will weigh on XLF as summer goes on if there's no QE…


  140. Bought those 64 QQQ puts again for half of what I sold them for this morning on bad news Ben talks tomorrow!


  141. That was ridiculous!   They had technical problems and cut my time to nothing.  I feel like I was raped…


  142. aapl 18 off the lows!…. the impact that stock has on this market cannot be overestimated…i think US stocks would be down for the year if not for that one compaNY


  143. PHIL// I HOPE THEY FORKED OVER THE TOLLS AND SOME GAS MONEY!


  144. Pharm – Do you like any of these:  Amgen, GILD, BIIB, ALXN, LIFE, VRTX and REGN?  Thanks in advance.


  145. Phil – We want to keep you to ourselves anyway.


  146. Phil/time
    sorry to hear that!
    they could not have used that extra time any more profitably elsewhere, I don't think.


  147. Phil: You'd think they would at least reimburse your travel expenses, if not some your time! Jeesh.


  148. Phil / Maybe you know too much. They had to think of a clever way to indirectly censor your take on the markets. Lol.


  149. Phil / GLW 
    I have the feeling I missed something, should I be rolling my '14 15,- puts


  150. Inkarri/nly
    been holding it for a while now.
    the dividend is certainly nice in a non retirement account.
    i have also, (so far) successfully sold puts on them every 6 months or so out in time…between the premium and the dividend and the slight price appreciation, can get you 20% or so return without too much risk.
    take and run if you see interest rates start to go up


  151. Phil
    Bet they checked your blog, for sure the morning post to the world, real investors only buy stocks!


  152. Phil-Must be solar flares at work .
    Greg admin told me sww database having login probs. Thought I was being thick. 


  153. Looks like Strong/weak bounce levels are mixed…play for a pop into tomorrow?
    I bought a weekly GOOG 620 C for 2.8 (now 4.2) and a MA 420 C for 3.35…


  154. Amgen – what do they have besides Epo, Neulasta and denosumab (bone density),

    GILD – They are very high now.

    BIIB – lots to like, but the chart is a straight line up.

    ALXN – YIKES.  Good product…very expensive.

    LIFE -  byying calls on them Aug/Sept $45 calendar on them for 60c.  They supply the gov't and pharma, so cyclical.

    VRTX -Takeout candidate.

    REGN – see VRTX.


  155. rookie
    The solor fare thing is real, couldn't log in until Sunday night and today my TV lost the station memory again. Cell phones are off also.


  156. What the..

    Roaring inflation: Argentine “double zero” peso bills are “legal tender”

    An issue of Argentine 100 Pesos bills printed in Brazil and in circulation in Buenos Aires was discovered to be missing the “1” which left them with only the double 00.

    http://en.mercopress.com/2012/07/05/roaring-inflation-argentine-double-zero-peso-bills-are-legal-tender


  157. when does appl report? after the bell tomorrow?


  158. mackey aapl yes after


  159. AMZN – nice drop after the bell..!


  160. sold GOOG weekly for 4, quick 50%…didn't like the closing sell pressure



  161. Folks,
    I'm looking for a good CPA and attorney to do estate and investment tax planning.  If you know someone good, please let me know.  My email is peterd188 at yahoo.  Thanks much!


  162. The Newsroom  -  If you haven't seen it, you should watch it.  Almost as good as the West Wing.  I just watched Ep 1-4.  So good.


  163. Phil – great interview! technical difficultiesor not, you carried yourself well, spoke clearly, knowledgeably and authoritatively.


  164. Burrben/Newsroom
    Episodes 2 and 3 have been the best so for talking about Koch brothers and the tea party. Wish there were real broadcast like that not an HBO program


  165. Ahh they screwed you Phil.  Its too bad, because they actually had someone on to argue with you and I was looking forward to you breaking him into little pieces.    Maybe next time…


  166. Birdman/GS/Charts,
    Which charts are you looking at? Can you post the link?
     
    Thanks


  167. OK folks, I am going to be out and about for the next two weeks.  I will be on intermittently, but most of the time I will not have access during the day.  Last time I did this, the market tanked…..just and FYI.  GLTA.


  168. Good Evening--
    Phil--  thanks for the great USO trade——I missed getting out this morning at the top due to an appt but got out later at a good profit


  169. Pharm—-have a great vacation—will miss you on the board


  170. Phil/AMZN
     
    Just curious how you feel they may react if AAPL blows the doors out, hence the QQQ's would go higher most likely, wouldn't it make sense AMZN would follow? or is this just a pure earnings play with the reaper man showing up Fri AM?


  171. Charts/Pat – I get some initial ideas from AutoChartist (double tops/bottoms and head & shoulders are special favorites), but my primary screening is done using a Triple Screen with daily, 60 minute and 10 minute charts. I keep it very simple. I'm mainly looking for trend on the dailies but I get a little finer using a four month chart with 5 & 34 EMAs, an envelope with a EMA34 and channels wide enough to accommodate 95% of the moves and MACD. The 60 minute is my main chart and I usually use four weeks with the same EMAs and channel and MACD. I find divergences in the MACD to be pretty useful. For example, new highs with lower momentum are great signals. I use the 10 minute charts to fine tune entries and exits.
     
    Still working hard on improving my batting average as I consistently make money, but strict money management is a bigger factor than my ability to get base hits.
     
    And I get *a lot* of ideas from Phil and others on this forum.


  172. Hello Phil,
    I have deep ITM AAPL position call spreads Jan 450/500 ($41) and Jan 480/510  ($22).  Would you suggest a strategy (rolls) to take profits, please?
    Thanks in advance.


  173. BNN
     
    I timed it at 3 minutes 46 seconds


  174. Phil,
    Holding AAPL Aug 620 calls @23.60. What would you recommend. Can I roll, buy puts? What? Thx.


  175. Solar flares
    Yes, that agres with what I've been seeing lately, especially with my cell phone


  176. Wow, what a bullshit finish!  I hope nobody fell for that…

    That was just shameful manipulation into the close – I'm embarrassed for the guy who wrote that program.  

    Did they even try to pretend there was news?  I don't know because I haven't caught up yet.  Made the mistake of listening to CNBC on the way home and learned NOTHING!!  


  177. Pharm;
    NOW they upgrade housing? After HOV doubled from June 5 to July 11?   NOW?
     
    "the best and the brightest"………………oh vey


  178. Phil
    I thought the BNN interview went well – and it actually helped having that guys as a foil.


  179. BNN/deano – Link?


  180. Thanks Birdman. That is really helpful.
    I was looking at stockcharts.com. 


  181. Charts/Pat – You're welcome. Oh, and I use OHLC charts.


  182. Technically not a pretty picture – we lost the 5% line on the Dow and the Must Hold line in the S&P. The Nasdaq sits right on the 50 DMA (and AAPL reports tomorrow) while we lost the 200 DMA on the NYSE (we bounced of the 50 DMA and the Down 5% line today). The RUT also bounced off the 50 DMA but we can expect a Death Cross any day now. 

    AAPL better crush it tomorrow! And reporting before the market opens tomorrow, we have T, DD, EMC, SAP and UPS. A little bit for everyone. Beside Apple, after hours we'll also have AFL, JNPR, NFLX and many others. 


  183. Welcome Markilus!  Very Roman name, I like it…  

    INTC/Scott – The worm is probably turning on everything at this point.  There's only so many times the MSM can tell us how earnings are exceeding expectations before people figure out what a load of crap that is.  Today we have:

    • CCE meets earning on 8.3% less revenues.
    • HAS beats on 10.7% less revs. 
    • MCD misses on 0.2% more revs.
    • PETS misses on -6.2% revs. 
    • PHG misses on 13% more revs. 
    • TXN beats on -3.6% revs. and guids down
    • BIDU had a nice beat on 62.4% more revs – that's impressive and unexpected.  

    That's no way to instill confidence.  So, if you have INTC, long-term, and you were too greedy to cover at $29 or $27 – now is your chance at $25.  There's nothing wrong with them but think how much happier you would have been to sell calls.  So what's stopping you now?  

    By the way, listening to the news you would have thought the markets staged a spectacular come-back today and showed some real strength on a pullback.  That's what they were spinning it like and it wasn't until I came home and looked at the chart and realized what nonsense these guys were spouting.  From my recent experience at BNN, I can see why though – the studio guests are all tightly scripted and follow the station's policy while a guy like me, who is a danger of saying something interesting – is given about 30 seconds to speak but only on the question they frame – it's like being prosecuted on a witness stand but my own attorney must have been asleep or he would have objected to the line of questioning!  

    Housing/Pharm, Amalfi – I've got a real estate project going and anyone who tells you there's a recovery on is on drugs.  The banks aren't lending and the people aren't borrowing anyway.  Homes are simply not affordable – even at 3.5%, especially if the banks want to see 20% down-payments.  Cash buyers are getting big discounts and that's never a healthy sign.  

    Excellent call on QQQ puts Shadow – way to go back to the well!  

    Gas money/Angel – I'd settle for a hug and a kiss. 

    Profits/Maya – I had the AMZN Oct $185 puts at $4 picked out for them but instead of discussing the trade, the guy in the studio tries to argue that a p/e of 180 is OK for a cool stock like AMZN but then turns around and says a p/e of 3 for SVU may be too high – I didn't know who he was but what an ass!  

    GLW/Jyoti – The 2014 $15 puts are $4.10 and the stock is at $12.  I imagine you lost some money but the bottom line is you are in for net $13ish or whatever you sold them for.  $12 is hardly a reason to make drastic changes.  Perhaps if you had an even roll to 2x the $10 puts (now $1.27) it would be worth considering but I'd wait – PATIENTLY – for 2015s to come out and see about those.  

    Newsroom/Burr – That is a good show.  

    You're welcome Savi!  

    AMZN/Sage – Yes, up on strong AAPL earnings but I also don't believe they will happen but that's why I favor October with a chance to roll to higher puts and stay short – just in case.  

    Dinner time, will get to AAPL plays later.



  184. Cable TV  business and finance channel/shows
    Since it's afterhours, I'll get a headstart on my stupid question of the week.
     
    Phil, I remember reading comments you've made in the past regarding some exploration you've done of having a "radio show", or a very short TV show, if I remember correctly. My general recollection is that you said you looked into it and it wasn't feasible, but I don't remember the specifics.
     
    Here's an essay question you might want to take a swing at;  although I realize that after your frustrating afternoon you might not be in the mood….so OK if you want to put it off for some other time.
     
    Why can't (or why hasn't) SOMEBODY in the cable TV world tried to create a REAL high quality "markets" channel? Are the startup costs just too high? Why can't somebody take on CNBC? Last I heard their numbers were getting worse and worse for many months. And I have no idea about Fox Business channel, or if it even still exists, but even if they still exist I wouldn't watch THEM anyway. Rupert and Roger Ailes should both just be shot. I used to watch Bloomberg TV once in a while, but they put me to sleep..
    I guess that once again I will reveal my naivete, but is it absolutely REQUIRED to have a bunch of dumb ass bimbo's (YEAH, I SAID IT), and blow dried ego-maniacs, to have a serious show that people would watch? ? Wouldn't there be a large market for a REAL market monitoring show?   Mark Haines, he was VERY good. Entertaining but also a fairly serious guy. He didn't put up with much crap.
    CNBC HAS had some good financial journalists but a number of them have left, leaving behind the "not so good".
     
    I haven't watched much of BNN (on the Net), so I don't know how good they are, but they seem a little better than CNBC.
    It seems like it would be possible to get some of the REAL smart market commentators/analysts and create something way better than CNBC. I don't know though, it seems like 80% of the commercials on CNBC are for on-line brokers. I guess there is no reason why a real oggod channel could not be created, there is talent, I guess it all comes down to whether they could make any money off it. Just seems like a REALLY BLOCKBUSTER QUALITY show could blow Cramer and his pals off the air. Maybe it comes down to the "lowest common denominator" of the audience demo.
    I know they are owned by GE, so they have deep pockets, and a lot of people, you included, feel they push things around to suit their owner.
    I can't even watch them anymore, and haven't for well over a year. If I have to hear Maria what's her face say to a guest one more time "So, what sectors would you be investing in now?", I'd puke.
    Pity the fool who thinks they are getting anything "real" there.
    Oh well, just thought I'd see if you wanted to give us an updated view on that industry, and why it is so sick, and why it couldn't be done better.  Don't mean to bumb you out for the day, if you'd rather not discuss it today/tomorrow just say so and I'll being it up again in a month if you think you'd be up for it.
     
    Thanks


  185. BNN – I love that interview. You DON'T like AMZN! And you LIKE SVU! They were genuinely gob-smacked. Great job Phil.


  186. Phil/Birdman/charts,
    Is stockcharts a good deal for $15 per month? I want to save my studies on the chart and also want to get moving picture with my annotations instead of seeing the chart daily.
    I am not a big Tech guy but like to look at basic stuff and also the 5% lines of Phil. Considering this it seems good investment…what do you think? any other good option.
    Phil, THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIP!!! on rolling the QQQ, SPY and USO Puts to next week on last friday. Cashed out everything with at least 50% gain……awesome.
    thanks.


  187. Phil: Adjusting when things finally go right on short calls
    I know you lose interest when a overbought stock finally meets reality but are there not times it makes sense to keep adjusting short calls down as stocks crash, aware of course there be will inevitable bounces?  Although, I eventually won on many short call trades in looking back it would have been much more profitable to keep adjusting down, rolling out in time and reducing the number of contracts so I could scale back up if needed as long as my premise hasn't changed.  (Ex are GMCR, OPEN, NFLX)  I have learned to understand a relatively small universe of stocks, (20 to 30), and feel more comfortable working those within ranges.  That approach runs counter to your suggestions " there will always be something else to trade" and" there are 8,999 other stock to trade".  If I told you that one of the improvements I have made over two years is that I am much more disciplined and don't go chasing too many different stocks, would you still recommend I move onto fresh horses once the worm turns?  TIA


  188. Phil, In the past, when I reloaded the page, it would always take me back to the point where I was reading comments, now I am left at the top of the page and have to scroll down to find where I left off. Is it my computer or has something changed?


  189. Phil, I think newbie is onto something here. You could become the anti-Cramer…

    You know I made a career out of being the anti-BS guy who would be invited to present, and would say whatever I wanted., And they asked me back, maybe as a joke, but I think people listened. You have that geeky intellectual thing working and it would probably attract some audience.
     
    You just have to stifle the communist stuff :)
    Despite all the scripting in the world, interested people want to listen to interesting people.


  190. but I would like to debate in person…


  191. Phil—if one wants to dip ones toe into real estate how would you go about it thru stocks—I have HOV would CBG or some REIT's be a good idea or have REIT's run too much?  thanks


  192. rpme/reload, I think it's your computer, my reload is fine both on IE9 and Google Chrome.


  193. Stock World Weekly / New Trades?
     
    Just to confirm, are there any new trades in SWW that AREN'T in member chat?   I looked through but I didn't see any, although Phil mentions to have a look at SWW for "more ideas".  
    Just wondering.


  194. rpme – Loading fine for me w/Chrome.  If you are using a VPN, that may be the problem.


  195. Mackey, Yes, I am a Vietnam vet and that probably had some affect on my affection for Asia but traveled alot in the meantime and found Thailand best to my liking. Much corruption here but the bottom 95% has access to it and not just the top 5% or so like in the US. I am not familiar with lk leelanau – where is that? Sorry for the delayed responses but 12 hours difference makes it dificult at times.


  196. Phil/INTC, I have a buy/write, selling the 2014 20 puts and 2014 27 calls that have been doing well – puts sold for 1.97, now 1.70 and calls sold for 4.23, now 2.01 and like the dividend – anything wrong with this?


  197. INTC, Phil – I should have said first:  "I saw your response on INTC @ 6.06pm that seemed somewhat bearish."


  198. Whatever your political sympathies, these quotes from Alexander Cockburn, RIP, exemplify his writing: a comment on Cyrus Leo Sulzberger, the New York Times foreign correspondent and scion of the family that owns the Times, contrasted with Thomas Friedman [From Al Jazeera]:
     
    "Tedium in a pundit is inevitable and, in its own way, soothing. In the days of C L Sulzberger, [Thomas] Friedman's remote predecessor on the "foreign affairs" beat on the Times' op-ed page, I used to look forward to C L's narcotic musings as eagerly as Coleridge to his opium pipe. As I wrote once years ago, C L was the summation, the Platonic ideal of what foreign commentary is all about, namely to fire volley after volley of cliché into the densely packed prejudices of his readers. He never deviated into paradox, never shunned the obvious when he had a chance to grapple with it. His work was a constant affirmation of received beliefs."
     
    "But Sulzberger had the graces of an older world, the decorum of the chancery or the embassy dinner. He slipped over the side quietly one day and was gone. I miss him, and sometimes, nodding over the Times op-ed with eyes half closed, I fancy I can hear him still…[But]  [Thomas] Friedman's is an industrial, implacable noise, like having a generator running under the next table in a restaurant. The only sensible thing to do is leave."


  199. Phil, are there any posts here talking about the strategy of buying a stock and selling both calls/puts? Seems like a good way to get paid to hold dividend stocks. What am I missing here? Even if you get put the stock you could just repeat by selling more calls/puts. I'm sure you've covered this before so if someone can point me in the right direction I'd really appreciate it. Thanks


  200. Friedman/Zero – excellent! the last (and only?) good work Friedman did, imho, was "From Beirut to Jerusalem." The olive lexus pontification was a waste of wood pulp.  (His column i gave up on years ago.)


  201. Thank you to a couple of members who emailed me on the estate planning attorney.  Just got to Utah on a business trip, and will be in meetings all days until Friday, so probably not many posts from me.


  202. Phil - Nice rant today. The "macro" view is always such fun…..
     
    Not sure if this was posted: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/19/us/years-of-unraveling-then-bankruptcy-for-a-city.html?pagewanted=all
    Or, if I must… misery in pictures…. http://www.nytimes.com/slideshow/2012/07/18/us/STOCKTON.html
     
    :(


  203. If Phil becomes the Anti-Cramer does that meean if they meet there will be an enormous explosion or just a flash crash?


  204. Classic whipsaw day today chaps :-) Best book any profits you can and go cash till we can see which way the market heads – what do you think Phil?


  205. Shadow, PHil, anyone else…in case anyone is interested, this is what Andy Zaky says about AAPL as of last night.  He could be wrong, but keep in mind he has a good track record of predictions in the past…
    "…the trading action on Monday was incredibly bullish. You couldn’t have asked for anything better. That’s because now Apple has a massive hollow red bar on the daily chart which indicates a reversal of the selling pressure. What’s more, Apple clearly bounced very hard right off of its $590 support level. Things are looking far more bullish than you probably even imagine. There is still a very significant chance that we see Apple take out the highs. Especially with what we saw on Monday. That increases the likelihood of a gap-up to take out the highs quite significantly."
    I would pick up a few AAPL calls or bull call spreads on any weakness today, if there is any…nothing to bet the house on but Zaky has been correct going against the grain on a few occasions already…


  206. Markilus … it can only be a whipsaw day on Wednesday :-)


  207. It could be a Wobble . .


  208. Fear trade pumping up – marking up FAZ, TZA and UVXY despite the beginnings of positive news. Sure Europe's bust but what's new? if I wanted to take a gamble I'd be going long in Commodities right now (or Tech), but I'm not at all sure I'd want to be heavily short at this stage. Leave that for later – next week is typically an up week and I think the Fed speak on August 2nd where everyone expects some new QE magic . .

    w
     


  209. Good morning! 

    Dollar heading back to 84 – no need to look at anything else to see how things are going – should be burning off yesterday's stick very quickly.  

    Tuesday's economic calendar:

    7:45 ICSC Retail Store Sales

    8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales

    8:58 PMI Manufacturing Index

    10:00 FHFA House Price Index

    10:00 Richmond Fed Mfg.

    1:00 PM Results of $35B, 2-Year Note Auction 

    Notable earnings before Tuesday’s openAMEAPDBIIBBTUCNCCOLDDDLPHEMCGNTXITWLMT

    LXKMO,NXPIPCARRAIRFSAPSNVSPGTUAUPSVMEDWHR,WU

    Notable earnings after Tuesday’s closeAAPLACCACE,AFLALTRBRCMCHRWCOGCPWRCTRPEW

    FTIHTSIGT,JNPRLLTCMTWNBRNFLXNFXNSCPLCMQCORRFMD,

    RHIRRCRVBDSUTPXTRIPTSS

    6:00 AM Overseas: Japan -0.24%;. Hong Kong -0.79%. China+0.24%. India +0.26%. London +0.23%. Paris +0.08%. Frankfurt+0.07%. - Hong Kong only had half a day due to a Typhoon so very light Asian trading

    Eurozone flash manufacturing PMI dips to 44.1 in July vs. 45.1 in June, touching a 37-month low. Services PMI at a four-month high of 47.6 vs. 47.1 in June. Employment fell for the seventh month in a row and at the fastest rate in 2.5 years. The downturn shows no signs of letting up and "is consistent with GDP falling at a quarterly rate of around 0.6%, which is similar to the rate of decline we expect to see for the second quarter." (PR)

    German flash manufacturing PMI contracts to 43.3 in July, a 37-month low, vs. 45.0 in June and 45.1 expected. PMI services at 49.7 vs. 49.9 prior and 50.0 expected. "German business conditions are far less healthy" than in H1 and "an accelerated decline in new work means that the stage could well be set for a steeper drop in GDP than the 0.2% fall recorded at the end of 2011." (PR)

    China HSBC Flash PMI for July was 49.5, up from June's 48.2 and the highest figure since February. "Earlier easing measures are starting to work. That said, the below-50 July reading implied demand still remaining weak and employment under increasing pressure. This calls for more easing efforts to support growth and jobs." (.pdf)

    Whirlpool (WHR): Q2 EPS of $1.55 may not be comparable to consensus of $1.58. Revenue of $4.5B (-4.6% Y/Ymisses by $130M. (PR)

    Air Products and Chemicals (APD): FQ3 EPS of $1.41 in-line. Revenue of $2.34B (-5.3% Y/Ymisses by $120M. (PR)

    Ceradyne (CRDN): Q2 EPS of $0.28 misses by $0.06. Revenue of $130.6M (-10.2% Y/Ymisses by $1.4M. (PR)

    DuPont (DD): Q2 EPS of $1.48 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $11B (+7.2% Y/Y) misses by $270M. (PR)

    STMicroelectronics (STM): Q2 EPS of -$0.05 misses by $0.01. Revenue of $2.15B (-16.3%) in-line. Issues downside guidance for Q3 revenue +2.5% sequentially, equivalent to $2.202B vs. consensus of $2.28B. (PR) (from AH yesterday)

    Spirit Airlines (SAVE): Q2 EPS of $0.49 beats by $0.023. Revenue of $346.3M (+25.5% Y/Y) beats by $3M. (PR) - Oh joy, treating your customers like cattle and screwing them for endless add-on fees is the winning strategy!


  210. Like everything out of China these days, their vaunted solar companies might also be a bunch of smoke and mirrors:


    Giga Solar follows LDK Solar into financial trouble

     
    "An employee of Giga Solar said that while the company claimed that its production capacity was 880MW, only four of its production lines were actually producing about 160MW, with only two lines being relatively stable.


    CUC has also not paid salaries to its staff for several months.
    Excluding the employees of CUC, the employee headcount at Giga Solar's headquarters in Xinyu once hit a high of more than 600 before dropping to the current 314. Many of its employees quit because they were not paid their salary arrears for several months. A Xinyu government official said the local labor arbitration department had sent officials to the company to negotiate a resolution to the salary arrears issue between the company and its employees.
    A financial expert said several Chinese enterprises had used their photovoltaic production facilities as collateral to raise funds. Giga Solar has invested more than 20 billion yuan (US$3.13 billion) in projects in various regions in China. For instance, its Guilin base plans to invest 5 billion yuan (US$783 million) to add 3GW of capacity."
     
    Just invest invest invest regardless of RoE and use their new assets to collateralize more debt to do more malinvestment.   Not a sustainable business policy IMHO.


  211. AAPL/DrMtv – At $41 out of $50 possible, the question is – can you make more than $9 with $41 (22%) between now and Jan on something else?  I'm sure $500 (or $510) is "safe" with AAPL.  There's not much you can do with a vertical other than gamble into earnings by cashing out maybe 1/2 of your longs and playing for a dip – if you are so inclined but you have 20% in the hand – what's the point of gambling on the bush? 

    BNN – There were all very nice and apologized for screw up at Time-Warner.  This is the first time we had a problem there so, hopefully, just a one-time thing. 

    AAPL/Hextra – I would never play that trade.  You are in 100% premium that will get destroyed after earnings, whichever way AAPL goes.  They are already down to $14.50 and you will be lucky to get a pop and get out close to even.  This is exactly the kind of trade I try to teach people NEVER to do – ever – under any circumstances.  You paid 3% of the stock's price in premium and need AAPL to go up 3% just to break even – think about that – what if you did that every month?  You'd need AAPL to gain 72% a year just to be even.  Can you really love AAPL that much?  

    Foil/Deano – Well it's fine when you have 10 or 15 minutes but you may have noticed that they never got to the actual trade (Oct $185 puts at $3.50 at the time of the interview) while Taylor tells me maybe AMZN is worth 180 times earnings "because it always has a high valuation."  They let this guy manage money???

    Big Chart – Nice, neat spikes down to test those dmas.   Nas and RUT recovered just enough to sit on top of their 50s while Dow, S&P an NYSE ALL tested theirs and sit about a point above – ALL – like a coordinated ballet.  What we have discovered is there is no support between here and the 50 dma and we're not even sure that 50 dma support is real.  If the Nas and/or RUT fail their 50s (anything red at this point), then I think it's a pretty safe bet to aggressively play the others to join them so we're looking for a 100-point Dow drop to 12,600 and S&P back to 1,333 if the Nas fails to hold 2,875 (with 2,850 and 2,825 both acting as strong support) or the RUT fails to hold 775 (and those are all the supports it has so nice TZA play below that line). 

    As to the "death cross" on the RUT – keep in mind that, as long as the RUT is over the 50 dma, then the 50 DMA will curve up at a faster rate than the 200 dma and, if they can get the RUT back to 800 – you'll have a very impressive-looking floor of the 200 dma that is SO STRONG that even the falling 50 dma bounces off it.  So there is still room to print a bullish technical picture but time is running out if they are going to pull it off. 

    As StJ says, AAPL will make or break the market.  

    TV Show/Newbie – To make a show that doesn't look like crap, you need a lot of people who are going to spend all day on it.  That costs money and you don't make much money to pay them selling YouTube ads.   I'd love to do it.  The closest I came was with Sirius, doing a show called Sirius Stocks live during market hours but even that is a multi-million dollar budget and then you are having to "work with" the advertising department to make sure you don't piss off your sponsors, etc.  That's why I don't accept ads on PSW (we do for the free viewers but not for Members) – once you begin to count on add revenue to pay the bills – the add buyers have power over you – it's just a fact.  I'm very fortunate to be in a position where it's not all about money for me but there are many very good analysts who are not and the MSM chews them up and spits them out with great regularity.  A couple of times I've been approached to sell PSW to a much bigger site and one time I went so far as to get a contract but the terms made me sick to my stomach – you completely sell out and it's all about the money – not a word about making the actual Members happy.  At the moment, if I had my way, I'd be interested in doing a Friday show on the market after the Daily Show with the same kind of angle – just make fun of the whole thing while getting some truth out there.  Other than that, I'm very happy doing what I'm doing every day here.  

    Thanks Bird.  

    Stockcharts/Pat – I think it's worth it.  Great service.  Glad your rolls worked so well – you are very welcome.  

    Adjusting/Lincoln – Many of our most successful traders are "experts" in a few stocks and only trade them.  There is nothing wrong with working on a stock long-term, rather than moving from one thing to another, as I tend to do.  So yes, I get "bored" once a stock like CMG falls as I expect.  I got bored with GMCR when we got our big dip there but we could have ridden them pretty much down to zero.  From my point of view, there were simply more interesting things to short and I can only watch so many things so, once a slot-machine pays off – I tend to move on to the next one that hasn't yet.  So I wholeheartedly endorse your approach but you do need to realize, with a stock like GMCR, that that one is done ($17.50) and it would be time to move on to one of the other 8,999 stocks – to make them one of your 20.  

    My basic goal is finding stocks that are simply too high or too low – I don't care which.  From there I look to see if they happen to be in a spot, based on the upcoming news and events I see on the radar and my expected stock movement over the holding period, that offers a good risk/reward on a trade set-up.  If those conditions are met, then I have something to trade.  You'll notice though, that I also tend to go back to the same 50 stocks, over and over and over – it is good to have favorites that you know well – I just tend to have more than most people. 

    Reload/Rpme – That's a browser thing as far as I know but I'm not too technical. 

    Anti-Cramer/Barf – Hey, I'd love to do it but I don't have time so it would have to be all set up and ready to the point where I show up somewhere and they turn on the camera.  I just have too many things going on to start doing gorilla TV broadcasts. 

    Real estate/Savi – I would put money into a real estate data venture (like the one I just started) which will do well in a crap market and fantastically in an active market.  On the stock side – I think the timing is wrong and the builders and REITs are certainly not cheap at the moment so wait for the next catastrophe and then we can take a look again.  

    SWW/Burr – No, those trades (well mine, anyway) all come from Member chat with maybe a modification as of Friday's close.  When I say in the morning post to look at SWW for more ideas – that's really for outsiders, not Members.  You guys get everything hot off the presses – even while I'm just thinking about it.  

    Yeah, a VPN, that's what I was thinking…  ;)  

    INTC/Jomp – Nope, nothing wrong with that at all.  Just because I'm bearish on INTC at $25, doesn't mean I wouldn't be saying BUYBUYBUY at $20, right?  To me, stocks have "right" prices so even my beloved AAPL can be too expensive at times.  $555 was the last time I was enthusiastic about buying and I lost interest at $620 and picked a short but we took that quickly and ran and now, at $600 – I could care less which way it goes.  Once we see earnings – if it goes too high, I'll be happy to short it and, if it goes too low, I'll be thrilled to buy it again because there is a base value to AAPL ($420) that I see regardless of earnings or any other catastrophe that might take them there and there's a top ($700) at which I can't see them justifying over the next 12 months so the closer they get to either one makes me want to play it.  I see all stocks like that (the ones I play often) there's a "right" VALUE and I don't really care what the current PRICE is because VALUE tends to win out over time. 

    Good stuff ZZ.  

    Strategy/Real – Sure, Google "How to buy stocks for a 15-20% discount."  

    Thanks 1020. 

    Cash/Markus – Always a good strategy in uncertain times.  I expected us to go up today, if we don't, things could get ugly. 

    AAPL/Jerconn – I hope he's right because, if AAPL drops back to $550, the Nas will plunge 5% or more the same day and the other indexes will follow and all sorts of technicals will fail and then, the inevitable MASS HYSTERIA:


  212. Real, That is one of Phils main strategies, buying the stock and selling the puts and calls – it is called the buy/write. Yes, very good for dividend stocks. You get called away for a profit or get more cheaper.


  213. Yup, if APPL don't deliver we're going down the tubes fast – but probably not commodities as there is little relationship here. Commods are low presently, unloved and ignored – it is possibly time for a rally and yesterday even in the worst of the battle they didn't do bad (take GLD or AGQ for instance . .) They held up pretty well which tells me a lot . .


  214. I think we're going down the tubes anyway, just a question of with AAPL or without AAPL…it's time to get defensive even if AAPL crushes it.  If we go up today, time to hedge IMHO…, cause tomorrow down in any case.  Usually AAPL tops the morning after report and then tanks the rest of the day, so it makes sense to get defensive today in any case…and to bail out of AAPL tomorrow morn, for those who are playing earnings. 


  215. TZA at sub $18.90 and FAZ at sub $23.66 perhaps . . SDOW could be under priced short term depending on the level of crash, so would be happy below $20 here and lots of . .


  216. Anyone here checked out HDGE? I like the fact that it's a portfolio of selected shorts as opposed to being short everything. Fairly high management fee (around 1.8%) but actively managed. Also, they update their portfolio everyday which is potentially a good source of short ideas. http://advisorshares.com/fund/hdge
     
    #1 short holding right now – DB.