Courtesy of Lee Adler of the Wall Street Examiner
I have been reporting for the past couple of months that the seasonally adjusted (SA) economic data followed by virtually all mainstream conomists and Wall Street shill pundits was wrong.
Readings of the actual, not seasonally adjusted data (NSA), were showing clearly that economic growth was clearly on trend in the 2-3% area. This was showing up in particular in the real time-data on federal withholding taxes, published daily by the US Treasury.
As a result, I forecast back in June and July that within the next month or so the SA data would have to get back in line with reality (see posts here) and that the mainstream talking heads would be surprised when it did. Over the past week or so, it has become clear that the process is under way. Here’s a piece from this morning’s Washington Post. There have been others along these lines in a variety of media outlets over the past few days.
After a spring and summer of weak economic indicators, a flurry of fresh data suggest key sectors of the economy might be gaining traction, just as the battle for the White House enters the final round.
The long-moribund housing market has bustled to life, with prices and new-home construction rising in recent weeks. Hiring, so weak earlier this year, picked up last month. And on Thursday, the government reported an acceleration of a downward trend in the number of people seeking unemployment insurance, as well as a sharp improvement in U.S. exports.
via Economy might be gaining traction, new data suggest – The Washington Post.
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