Courtesy of Mish.
Recession Numbers Second Consecutive Month
Yesterday I was asked if the services ISM changed my view about the US being in recession. I responded that I wanted to see today’s job report first.
Well I have seen it and the report is nothing short of a certified disaster.
Yes, Virginia, based on the household survey, and manufacturing reports, the regional Fed surveys the US is in recession.
The one survey that is different is the ISM services report. The question is why? This is speculation, but I believe ISM has too few companies in the survey, and perhaps large companies are still growing while medium and small-sized firms are not. The other possibility is the ISM report is an outlier for another reason.
Regardless, last month the the household survey had a decline of 195,000 jobs and this month the decline is 119,000. Thus, in the last two months, there are 314,000 fewer employed.
At turns, the household survey leads. I strongly suggest the economy has turned.
Jobs Report at a Glance
Here is an overview of today’s release.
- US Payrolls +96,000 – Establishment Survey
- US Employment -119,000 – Household Survey
- US Unemployment Rate -.02 at 8.1% – Household Survey
- The Civilian Labor Force fell by 368,000. Otherwise the unemployment rate would have risen.
- Average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls steady at 34.4 hours
- The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls steady at 33.7 hours.
- Average hourly earnings for all employees in the private nonfarm workers sector fell by 1 cent.
Recall that the unemployment rate varies in accordance with the Household Survey not the reported headline jobs number, and not in accordance with the weekly claims data.
Quick Notes About the Unemployment Rate …
