Archive for September, 2012

It’s No Fun In Iran

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Since Mahmoud Ahmadinejad first became President of Iran, in August 2005, the country’s economy has gone from bad to worse. As Steve ‘hyperinflation’ Hanke noted recently, the Iranian economy has, for decades, been cobbled together by religious-bureaucratic regimes that have employed mandates, regulations, price controls, subsidies, a great deal of red tape, and a wide variety of other interventionist devices, in an attempt to achieve their goals. It’s all been kept afloat – barely afloat – by oil revenues. Shortly after Ahmadinejad took power, Iran began to draw the ire of the United States and its allies over a number of issues related to its nuclear ambitions and this ‘loose’ coalition of allies has ratcheted up economic sanctions. These sanctions are starting to have very significant impacts. From the Rial’s greater-than-50% plunge to estimated inflation rates over 70%, the country’s ‘Misery Index’, as noted in Bloomberg’s Chart-of-the-day, has surged massively in recent months. For context, Iran’s Misery score of 106 currently compares to Egypt’s pre-Arab Spring Misery score of around 40! Whether the sanctions’ “bite” will cause the regime to dig their heels in more and/or force the people to openly revolt (or turn ther anger on the sanction-enforcing aggressor?), it truly is no fun in Iran.


Hanke – “Even if sanctions have a massive impact on the economy, they tend to paradoxically do what they are intended not to do, the highest probability scenario in terms of interpreting the misery index in a case where you have sanctions is that as the misery index goes up the regime gets stronger and digs in.”

The Chronology of Sanction against Iran:

Via Cato:

There is no question that the sanctions the “allies” are imposing on Iran are starting to bite, and bite pretty hard. But, will this coercion win the “war?” Probably not. Prof. John Mearsheimer, in his masterpiece, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, provides more than ample evidence to show that naval blockades and strategic bombing (and I would add financial sanctions) rarely produce their desired results. As Prof. Mearsheimer concludes:

“…the populations of modern states can absorb great amounts of pain without rising up against their governments.


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Latest Trading Jobs

Courtesy of Declan Fallon

A few extra jobs for this week and the carryover from the previous weeks

Financial Rep Trainee
Quotes & Authorizations Rep
Equity Options Trader
Junior Trader Intern
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Fixed Income – Quantitative Analyst
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Credit Risk Manager and Modeler
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Credit Risk Manager
Portfolio Manager II
Execution Trader, Fixed Income & Protected Growth
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Experienced Equity Options Trader
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China Bails Out World’s Largest Maker Of Solar Panels

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Chinese local governments are facing the prospect of major unemployment problems should the swathe of solar panel makers, that have been subsidized from birth to now-near-death, continue to suffer from US and European tariffs (as well as simple gross mis-allocation of capital amid massive over-capacity). However, as is the way of the mal-investing world today, no barrier to rational economic theory is too low for government status-quo maintenance as it would appear that local banks have been strong-armed into extending loans to keep them alive. As Reuters reports, debt-laden (NYSE-traded) SunTech Power Holdings  – which is close to removal from the exchange due to its dismal equity price – has just received new ‘bailout’ loans. First, it was a race to debase. Now, we have the race to bailout the world’s most worthless companies (especially in channel-stuffed industries) as the New Normal trade wars continue.

 

Via Reuters:

Banks in Wuxi, Jiangsu province, have extended new loans totalling 200 million yuan ($31.73 million) to locally headquartered solar power giant Suntech Power Holdings Co Ltd, the Shanghai government-owned China Business News reported on Friday, citing anonymous sources.

 

Suntech, the world’s largest maker of solar panels, whose shares hit a high of $90 in early 2008, runs the risk of being removed from the New York Stock Exchange for failing to keep the average closing price of its shares higher than $1 over the last 30 trading days as of Sept. 10, Suntech said in a statement on Sept. 21.

 

Shares in Suntech, like rivals JA Solar Holdings Co , Trina Solar Ltd and Yingli Green Energy Holding Co, have fallen sharply in the past three years as sales prices have tumbled, squeezed by declining demand in export markets and overcapacity at home.

 

Debt-laden Suntech’s shares have also been hit after it said in July that its partner in a solar development fund might have defrauded it with a bogus collateral pledge of hundreds of millions of euros of German bonds.

 

Local governments that invested heavily in supporting the development of solar power companies in their regions now face the likelihood of big local unemployment problems if those firms collapse. Last week Suntech announced it would lay off around 1,500 people from one of


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On the Cliff

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Bruce Krasting.

Absent some earth shaking event between now and November, Obama is going to win, the House will remain in the hands of the Republicans and the Senate will continue to be equally divided. The war between Reds and Blues will be just as bad as it was a year ago. The day after the election, the fight over the fiscal cliff will commence. I expect it will be ugly.

-I think there is zero probability that all of the issues now on the cliff will be pushed off to some future period. (Ultimate-can-kicking) Some of the cutbacks/tax increases that are now scheduled, will happen.

-I put the odds on falling off the cliff without any compromises at 40%. This scenario comes about if the Reps and Dems can’t agree on anything. If that is the case, we fall very hard on January 2. (No-can-kicking)

-Therefore, I see a 60% chance of a compromise that softens the consequences of the fiscal cliff, but does not eliminate it entirely. (Semi-can-kicking, but still kicking ourselves in the face)

If there is to be a compromise, it will be interesting to see who gets what, and who gives up what. It might play out with the following results:

I) The 2% reduction in FICA taxes is history. As of 1/1/13 every worker is getting hit with a 2% tax increase. This is a very regressive tax increase.

II) The Bush tax cuts for those making more than $250k are gone. This is a very Progressive tax increase.

III) The Bush tax cuts for those making less than $250k will be retained. This “centrist” compromises is the result of the “give” on #s I and II. Both sides will be able to claim that they did their best for “Middle Class Workers”.

IV) The Alternative Minimum Tax will be adjusted for inflation and will be fully phased in over a period of three years. This tax will hit 40m taxpayers (up from only 4m today). This is most definitely a middle class tax increase.

V) The capital gains tax rate is going to go up to at least 25%.

The result of I – V is that everyone who works, or has investment income is going to be paying more. No one will
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Importance of Patience and Persistence in Trading

Importance of Patience and Persistence in Trading 

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Britain’s Labour leader vows to break up banks

Britain's Labour leader vows to break up banks (via AFP)

Britain's opposition Labour leader Ed Miliband vowed on Sunday to break up the country's biggest banks if his party comes to power at the next general election. Miliband, whose party enjoys a 10-point lead in the latest polls, told the Observer newspaper that Labour would force banks to split their…





Massive Microbial Population Colonized Land 2.75 Billion Years Ago

Massive Microbial Population Colonized Land 2.75 Billion Years Ago (via Planetsave)

New research from the University of Washington is suggesting that the earliest land microbes were probably much more widespread than previously thought, creating oxygen and weathering pyrite, which is an iron sulfide mineral that releases sulfur and molybdenum into the oceans when ‘weathered.’…





Rent or own? The new sharing economy values access over ownership

Rent or own? The new sharing economy values access over ownership (via The Christian Science Monitor)

Lisa Gansky likes to share, and usually with strangers. A typical day for her looks something like this: •She leaves her house in Napa, Calif., at 7:30 a.m. and drives to the ferry, parks her Mini Cooper, and takes the 60-minute ride across the bay to San Francisco. •If it's raining, she'll pull…





Thousands on Paris streets to denounce EU ‘austerity’ pact

Thousands on Paris streets to denounce EU 'austerity' pact (via AFP)

Thousands of left-wing protesters took to the streets of Paris on Sunday to denounce the European Union fiscal pact forcing governments to stick to tough deficit limits. Chanting "Resistance!", protesters marched through central Paris in a rally organisers said was aimed at fighting EU-imposed austerity…





Presenting The World’s Biggest Hedge Fund You Have Never Heard Of

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The world’s largest hedge fund is not located in the top floor of some shiny, floor-to-ceiling glass clad skyscraper in New York, London, Hong Kong or Shanghai. It isn’t in some sprawling mansion in Greenwich or Stamford which houses a state of the art trading desk behind a crocodile-filled moat. Instead it can be found in tiny, nondescript office in Suite 225 located on 730 Sandhill Road in Reno, Nevada.

That’s not possible” one may say – the world’s largest hedge fund is Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater, which at last check had about $100 billion in AUM (and which has so far had a less than stellar performance in 2012, underperforming the S&P by a substantial margin). Turns out it is: the fund which was at $117.2 billion as of June 30, and which has lately been growing at a pace of about $15 billion per quarter (which would put it at about $130 billion currently), is none other than Braeburn Capital, a Nevada-based asset management corporation.

Who is Braeburn?

Braeburn is a subsidiary of another far more famous company, which since 2006 has had one simple task: manage the cash of the parent company.

At Braeburn’s inception, the cash pile was modest, yet absolutely massive in unlevered terms, at just over $10 billion. Fast forward 6 years, and the massive cash pile has now grown to be epically gargantuan. Of course, the parent company in question is none other than Apple, whose publicly reported cash horde at June 30, 2012 was a whopping $117,221,000,000. This is the AUM of Braeburn.

Any substantial follow up diligence on Braeburn will not reveal much if anything.

CapitalIQ has the following description of the firm: “Braeburn Capital Inc. is the asset management arm of Apple Inc. The firm invests in the public equity markets. Braeburn Capital Inc. was founded in 2006 and is based in Reno, Nevada.” And that’s it – there is no breakdown of which “public equity market” investments Braeburn is invested in, as is to be expected.

Bloomberg provides the following minimalist information:

Some more useful information cn be found in the Nevada Annual Report of tax-filing entities:

  • Entity Name: BRAEBURN CAPITAL, INC.
  • Filing Status: Active    
  • Date Filed: 10/03/2005


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Phil's Favorites

A doctor shares 7 steps he'll review to decide when and where it's safe to go out and about

 

A doctor shares 7 steps he'll review to decide when and where it's safe to go out and about

The Inn at Little Washington in Washington, Virginia, shown May 20, 2020, plans to use mannequins in its dining room to enforce social distancing when it reopens at the end of the month. Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of William Petri, University of Virginia

As we return to some degree of normalcy after weeks of social distancing, we all need a plan. As an immunologist, I’ve given this a lot of ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

A doctor shares 7 steps he'll review to decide when and where it's safe to go out and about

 

A doctor shares 7 steps he'll review to decide when and where it's safe to go out and about

The Inn at Little Washington in Washington, Virginia, shown May 20, 2020, plans to use mannequins in its dining room to enforce social distancing when it reopens at the end of the month. Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of William Petri, University of Virginia

As we return to some degree of normalcy after weeks of social distancing, we all need a plan. As an immunologist, I’ve given this a lot of ...



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Zero Hedge

18 Million Jobs At Risk Of Permanent Loss: What Happens To Small Businesses When The Bailout Money Is Spent

Courtesy of Nick Colas of DataTrek Research

American small businesses are going to bear the brunt of the COVID Crisis and they employ 47% of the entire US workforce. Some will bounce back quickly (e.g. health care, construction, professional services) but accommodation/food service and retail will not. There are 18 million workers attached to small businesses there. Bottom line: at this early point in the cycle, large businesses have to find their footing because that’s what will set the floor on small business activity. The sooner that happens, the sooner small business America can start to recover.

We continue to worry – a lot – about how US small ...



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Chart School

Is this your local response to COVID 19

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

This is off topic, but a bit of fun!


This is the standard reaction from the control freaks.








This is the song for post lock down!







What should be made mandatory? Vaccines, hell NO! This should be mandatory: Every one taking their tops off in the sun, they do in Africa!

Guess which family gets more Vitamin D and eats less sugary carbs, TV Show



...



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ValueWalk

Hazelton Capital Partners 1Q20 Commentary: Long Renewable Energy Group

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Hazelton Capital Partners commentary for the first quarter ended April 30, 2020, discussing their current portfolio holdings Renewable Energy Group, Apple and Berkshire Hathaway.

Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Dear Partner,

Hazelton Capital Partners, LLC (the “Fund”) returned -23.8% from January 1, 2020 through March 31, 2020. By comparison, the S&P 500 returned -19.4% during the same quarter.

Before reviewing the 1st quarter of 2020 and Hazelton Capital Partners’ portfolio, my sincere hope is that everyone, their family, friends, a...



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The Technical Traders

Gold Stocks Are Overbought. You Don't Want Prices to Go Straight Up

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Bill Powers of MiningStockEducation.com talks with a professional trader and market commentator Chris Vermeulen says gold stocks are overbought and need a breather which would be good for the overall upward trend.

Chris shares how he has and is trading the junior gold sector. He called the recent February 24th top in the gold stocks before the March crash. And now he is warning to a top in some gold-stock positions during an expected pullback.

Chris also addresses whether a lot of the gap-up’s in many gold...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Doc Copper Counter-Trend Rally Could Peak Here, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Could ole Doc Copper be sending an important message about the overall health of the global economy and the stock market in the next couple of weeks? It appears it could!

This chart looks at Copper futures on a weekly basis over the past 7-years. Doc Copper looks to have double topped in late 2017 and early 2018. After the double top, Copper has continued to create a series of lower highs, which sends a bearish divergence message to stocks.

Numerous highs and lows have taken place along the line (1) over the past 5-years. The rally off the March lows ...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

 

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

App-etising? LDprod

Courtesy of Michael Rogerson, University of Bath and Glenn Parry, University of Surrey

Food supply chains were vulnerable long before the coronavirus pandemic. Recent scandals have ranged from modern slavery ...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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