Archive for October, 2012

Flawed Poll Models Underestimating Romney’s Lead

This is an interesting review of election surveys by Russ Winter. In my (limited) sphere, hardly anyone is happy about either candidate. Bigger questions seem to be: Should I bother voting against the one I dislike most? Which one is that? ~ Ilene 

Flawed Poll Models Underestimating Romney’s Lead

Courtesy of Russ Winter of Winter Watch at Wall Street Examiner

Partisans on both sides have been making claims of a lead in the polls — the Republicans cite the national polls and the Democrats the state. I’m not a partisan or a Romney supporter, but I feel compelled to argue that the poll models are flawed and underestimating Romney’s lead.

As far as modeling in these polls, the example of Marist and Mason-Dixon in Florida is illustrative of skewing. Marist tends to report big Obama leads, and M-D has reported decent Romney results.

From the Tampa Bay Herald: “Mason-Dixon, which has been polling in Florida for 28 years, uses a survey sample based on people’s voter actual registration to match the electorate in Florida, while Marist uses a sample based on whether people say they consider themselves a Republican, Democrat or independent. About 20 percent of the likely voters in the Marist poll were Hispanic, while 13 percent were Hispanic in the Mason-Dixon poll, more in line with the Florida voting patterns.”

Nationally, Pew Research illustrates Obama’s problem, as does a new Washington Post poll. The first Pew chart shows Romney’s strong supporters exploding in October, once he showed up at the debates appearing to be a moderate.  Right now, each candidate has about the same level of strong supporters..

 
 

However, the badly flawed state polls don’t show that 5 percent fewer strong Obama supporters are more likely to vote than among Romney’s base.

Obama’s problem is even worse among leaning Democrats. This support, as I have predicted, hasn’t materialized. Only 62% of Democrats and Dem leaners were likely to vote or even registered to vote, and figure that hasn’t budged since September. That’s the real knockout blow for Obama.

Meanwhile, GOP and GOP leaners likely to vote have risen from 69% in September to 76% this month, which is a big 14% spread over Dems. This suggests that Dem leaners could be over counted in these polls relative to Republican leaners.

The Washington Post/ABC poll considers “partisan independents,” for which the gap is 8 percent Republican. Of Republican-leaning independents,


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Guest Post: The Tremendous Economic Benefits Of Superstorm Sandy

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform

The Tremendous Economic Benefits Of Superstorm Sandy

The public relations propaganda campaign to convince the ignorant masses that Sandy’s impact on our economy will be minor and ultimately positive, as rebuilding boosts GDP, has begun. I’ve been hearing it on the corporate radio, seeing it on corporate TV and reading it in the corporate newspapers. There are stories in the press that this storm won’t hurt the earnings of insurers. The only way this can be true is if the insurance companies figure out a way to not pay claims. They wouldn’t do that. Would they?

It seems all the stories use unnamed economists as the background experts for their contention that this storm will not cause any big problems for the country. These are the same economists who never see a recession coming, never see a housing collapse, and are indoctrinated in Keynesian claptrap theory.

Bastiat understood the ridiculousness of Kenesianism and the foolishness of believing that a disaster leads to economic growth.

Bastiat’s original parable of the broken window from Ce qu’on voit et ce qu’on ne voit pas (1850):

Have you ever witnessed the anger of the good shopkeeper, James Goodfellow, when his careless son has happened to break a pane of glass? If you have been present at such a scene, you will most assuredly bear witness to the fact that every one of the spectators, were there even thirty of them, by common consent apparently, offered the unfortunate owner this invariable consolation—”It is an ill wind that blows nobody good. Everybody must live, and what would become of the glaziers if panes of glass were never broken?”

Now, this form of condolence contains an entire theory, which it will be well to show up in this simple case, seeing that it is precisely the same as that which, unhappily, regulates the greater part of our economical institutions.

 

Suppose it cost six francs to repair the damage, and you say that the accident brings six francs to the glazier’s trade—that it encourages that trade to the amount of six francs—I grant it; I have not a word to say against it; you reason justly. The glazier comes, performs his task, receives his six francs, rubs his hands, and, in


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Moving Averages: Month-End Update

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Valid until the market close on November 30, 2012

The S&P 500 closed October with a monthly loss of 1.98%. As anticipated in my moving-average preview, one signals triggered today for the Ivy Portfolio: DBC (the PowerShares DB Commodity Index).

The Ivy Portfolio

The table below shows the current 10-month simple moving average (SMA) signal for each of the five ETFs featured in The Ivy Portfolio. I’ve also included a table of 12-month SMAs for the same ETFs for this popular alternative strategy.


Backtesting Moving Averages

Monthly Close Signals Over the past few years I’ve used Excel to track the performance of various moving-average timing strategies. But now I use the backtesting tools available on the ETFReplay.com website. Anyone who is interested in market timing with ETFs should have a look at this website. Here are the two tools I most frequently use:

Background on Moving Averages

Buying and selling based on a moving average of monthly closes can be an effective strategy for managing the risk of severe loss from major bear markets. In essence, when the monthly close of the index is above the moving average value, you hold the index. When the index closes below, you move to cash. The disadvantage is that it never gets you out at the top or back in at the bottom. Also, it can produce the occasional whipsaw (short-term buy or sell signal), such as we’ve occasionally experienced over the past year.

Nevertheless, a chart of the S&P 500 monthly closes since 1995 shows that a 10- or 12-month simple moving average (SMA) strategy would have insured participation in most of the upside price movement while dramatically reducing losses.

The 10-month exponential moving average (EMA) is a slight variant on the simple moving average. This version mathematically increases the weighting of newer data in the 10-month sequence. Since 1995 it has produced fewer whipsaws than the equivalent simple moving average, although it was a month slower to signal a sell after these two market tops.

A look back at the 10- and 12-month moving averages in the Dow during the …
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Elliott Management Vs Argentina Round 2: Now It’s Personal

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

When it comes to international bondholder process, work out and restructuring (and litigation), on the one hand there is Europe, and specifically the ongoing Greek reorganization into an ever tinier balance sheet by way of cramming down weak-covenant, local-law bondholders (who are “encouraged” to participate in ever more coercive principal recovery events, as defection would result in wipeouts of recoveries in other cross-held bonds of the impaired class should a Grexit-type event occur, which then would lead to massive losses on all European bond holdings for the same creditors: a true Mutually-Assured Destruction scenario, as the IIF’s Jacques Dallara understood quite well), and on the other hand there is Argentina.

But whereas the European fiasco is still (relatively) structured (at least until Spain et al join the cram down fray, something none other than Lee Buchheit predicted would happen courtesy of the prevalence of local-law bonds in PIIGS outstanding inventory), if getting more complicated with incremental subordination of various junior classes of sovereign debt either due to legal reasons – i.e., local-law vs international-law bonds, structural reasons: the presence of Collective Action Clauses in consent solicitations and “indenture-stripping” thresholds for a holdout class (think perpetual fly-in-the-ointment Elliott), or due to the far more abstract “unimpairability” and primacy of the bondholder – i.e. the IMF, the ECB, or another Official Sector entity (all of which was previously explained here), in Argentina it is a totally chaotic free-for-all, where a distressed creditor holdout is now unilaterally pursuing “incremental recovery” of par in local and international courts of law.

The distressed creditor, in this case, is international bondholder litigation expert, hedge fund Elliott Associates which had purchased Argentina bonds with pari passu clauses shortly before the country’s 2001 default which involved $100 billion in sovereign debt – the biggest (so far) sovereign default, but at prices at fractions of par, and the “incremental recovery” in this case being an Argentinian three-mast frigate, the ARA Libertad (which serves as a school ship in the Argentine Navy) which the fund “seized” after it was impounded off the coast of Ghana a month ago “following judgments in our favor against Argentina in the U.S. and the U.K.” as Elliott writes in its latest investor letter.

In other words, both Elliott and Argentina are learning…
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Bleeding the Taxpayer: An Old Technology Dolled Up As New

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by testosteronepit.

Wolf Richter   www.testosteronepit.com   www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter

On September 14, 1899, Henry Bliss stepped off a streetcar at West 74th Street and Central Park West in New York and got run over by a taxi. A plaque points out that it was the first automobile fatality in the “Western Hemisphere.” The taxi was an electric vehicle. As were 90% of the taxis in New York City and about 30% of all cars sold in the US. Electric cars aren’t exactly new. Yet, the government is bleeding the taxpayer to advance the technology, create jobs at a cost of $158,556 per job, and fund executive bonuses.

Today, Republican Senators Chuck Grassley of Iowa and John Thune of South Dakota lambasted the Obama administration for the $2 billion it handed to 29 companies to manufacture advanced batteries for electric cars. It was part of the bipartisan $787 boondoggle stimulus bill of 2009 that performed mind-boggling wonders in the US economy. The senators were particularly irked by the facts surrounding one of the major recipients, the poster boy for the program, battery maker A123 Systems, which filed for bankruptcy two weeks ago.

In response to the bankruptcy, the Department of Energy touted the results of its advanced battery program, claiming it had created jobs for “thousands of American workers.” When Grassley pushed the DOE for documentation, he found out that it had created 12,613 jobs—at a cost of “$158,556 per job, including jobs that were later cut,” Grassley explained. And the jobs at A123? They cost the taxpayer $317,435 per job.

“Adding insult to injury, A123 executives reportedly are seeking to retain $4.2 million in bonuses through the bankruptcy process,” he said. That’s why boondoggles are so popular; somebody does get the money.

Yet, the first electric car hit the road in Scotland in the 1830s. As the technology matured, electric cars gave rise to a whole industry. Their toughest competitors? Steam-powered cars: they had greater range and more power. And they set speed records—a marketing advantage.

Each technology had its advantages and disadvantages. Steam cars were great for longer trips, such as to the next town, at dizzying speeds, but brought with them some challenges, such as having to preheat the boiler. Electric cars were great for moseying around town, but they were handicapped by…
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Guest Post: China’s J-31 Stealth Aircraft Takes Flight

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Authored by J. Michael Cole via The Diplomat,

Well, the Chinese aviation industry sure isn’t wasting any time: From the first glimpse of the tarp-covered fuselage being hauled in the first official pictures released by Shenyang Aircraft Corp (SAC) in September, China’s second fifth-generation stealth aircraft, the J-31, has now taken its maiden flight.

While defense analysts have been busy fretting over Chengdu Aircraft Industry Corp’s (CAC) J-20, first unveiled in January 2011, it looks like SAC was not dwindling its thumbs but instead was hard at work developing a second low-signature aircraft. Since the unveiling in September, defense watchers had been holding their breath in anticipation of what would come next.

SAC didn’t make them wait for long, with in-flight images of the J-31, which previously had been designated J-21, popping up on defense Internet sites on October 31. Bearing the tail designation “31001,” the aircraft, accompanied by two Shenyang J-11Bs, reportedly conducted a high-speed taxi run, followed by a 10-minute flight with its landing gear in the lowered position.

There is still speculation as to whether the J-31 is intended to be a competitor to the J-20, or a complement to its larger cousin. The one prototype seen so far is a conventional takeoff and landing (CTOL) aircraft like the J-20 and the Lockheed F-35A. However, computer-generated renditions of the aircraft have emerged in defense circles hinting at the possibility of a carrier-based variant, pointing to a role for the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). Analysts have also advanced the possibility that the J-31, under the designation F-60, could be intended as an export fighter to compete against the F-35.

As with the J-20 and other domestic aircraft programs, the main question remains which type of engine — the main technical bottleneck for Chinese engineers — will be used on the J-31. One option, according to some analysts cited at China Defense, could be the Progress-Ivchenko Al-222-95F, a 9.5-tonne turbofan thrust engine, which Ukraine has reportedly offered to co-produce with China.

The Chinese Air Force and Navy are probably half a decade away from seeing fight-generation commence operations in their respective services. But one thing is sure: Defense analysts have underestimated China’s ability to overcome technological hurdles before. While the sky isn’t falling in East Asia,…
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Deciphering The Dismal Reality In Europe From The Hopeful Green Shoots

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

European corporates continue to report considerably more negative surprises in production than expectations a mere three months ago – with the divide now at extreme levels. As Morgan Stanley notes though, there remains a ‘hope’ for green shoots in the euro area on the back of the ECB’s OMT announcement and an apparently more robust China. Unfortunately, as these ywo simple charts indicate, the reality is that business surveys are pointing to a continued slide and that recent resilience is unlikely to last. In fact, in Morgan Stanley’s view, incoming data and anecdotal evidence would suggest Q4 could be even worse than had been expected and the recessionary envionment will drag well into next year.

 

 

Via Morgan Stanley:

Investors on a mission to spot green shoots: Recently, we have started to receive more and more questions from investors on whether we are seeing any tentative green shoots in the euro area on the back of the ECB’s OMT announcement and an improving global outlook. These questions often reflected encouraging dynamics in Asian exports – typically a good early indicator for a turnaround in the global trade cycle – as well as better-than-expected outcomes for 3Q GDP (and an especially strong one) in the UK and the US just this past week.

 

Coupled with the ECB’s announcement on unlimited OMT bond purchases and a tightening in peripheral government bond spreads, this has caused avid euro area data watchers to ask whether 3Q activity could also have been firmer than expected in the euro area, especially after this week’s first 3Q GDP flash estimates released in Spain and Belgium. According to these data, the Spanish economy would have contracted at a slower pace of ‘only’ 0.3%Q, despite another austerity package being implemented over the summer. After the Belgian economy printed a stable GDP number in 3Q today, this could suggest that euro area 3Q GDP could have been firmer than we were forecasting (we are looking for -0.3%Q in non-annualised terms).

 

Alas, we have to conclude that the resilience is unlikely to last: In our view, the October business surveys already sent a clear warning sign not to get too comfortable in the deceptive sunshine of an Indian summer. Like the weather currently, where sunshine


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The Ethics Of Halloween

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Authored by Caleb McMillan via the Ludwig von Mises Institute of Canada,

Every Halloween people are engaging in free-market anarchism whether they like it or not. To the economist, it’s clear that the child values receiving candy, even if it means dressing up in a funny or scary costume and going door-to-door, sometimes for hours, saying “trick or treat”. It’s clear that for the adults, joining in for the festive evening is valued more-so than the monetary value of the candy, or else they wouldn’t be giving it away. And some don’t. Some people, adults and children alike, shy away from Halloween night neither tricking nor treating nor allowing their homes to be used as candy repositories. Those partaking in the activity simply go about their business, ignoring the houses with the lights off. Halloween isn’t like most other market activities where exchanges can be marked in monetary value. Yet an exchange is taking place, and no aggression is required for participation or non-participation.

To the free-market anarchist, Halloween is a perfect example of a non-coercive display of voluntary goodwill. Critics of anarchism typically showcase the Hobbesian idea that without a coercive monopoly, people would rob, rape and kill one another. Yet, what is Halloween if not free-market anarchism? There is no central bureaucracy dictating what kids should dress up as, where they should go or at what time and for how long. Likewise, there are no bureaucrats telling adults what types of candy they should offer (“the Davidson’s are giving away Kit-Kats, so the Gibbons’ should offer M&Ms”).

Every Halloween any person giving away candy is an entrepreneur; the individual must decide how much candy to stock up on and how much to give away to each child. These decisions may be influenced by past experiences and future uncertainties. A neighbourhood with fewer children may warrant fewer candies, or a larger supply of individual candy units to each child. It can even be explained by marginal utility: If the supply of candy at the Davidson’s house is fixed at x, then the marginal utility of each candy unit will rise as more kids arrive and the supply dwindles. Likewise, if fewer children are visiting, the utility of each candy unit will fall, allowing the Davidson’s to give two or more units of candy…
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Is Santa Coming Early for Gold & Gold Mining Stocks?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by ilene.

Is Santa Coming Early for Gold & Gold Mining Stocks?

Courtesy of Chris Vermeulen 

If you own physical gold, gold mining stocks or plan on buying anything related to precious metals before year end, you might like my analysis and outlook.

Since gold topped abruptly a year ago (Sept 2011) with a massive wave of selling which sent the price of gold from $1920 down to $1535, technical analysts suspected that type of damage which had be done to the chart pattern could take a year or more to stabilize before gold would be able to continue higher.

Fast forwarding twelve months to today (Oct 2012). Gold looks to have stabilized and is building a basing pattern (launch pad) for another major rally. The charts illustrated below show my big picture analysis, thoughts and investment idea.

Weekly Spot Gold Chart:

The weekly chart can be a powerful tool for understanding the overall trend. This chart clearly shows the last major correction and basing pattern in gold back in 2008 – 2009. Right now gold looks to be forming a very similar pattern.

Keep in mind this is a weekly chart and if you compare the 2009 basing pattern to where we are today I still feel it could take 3 – 6 months before gold truly breaks out to the upside and kicks into high gear. The point of this chart is to provide a rough guide for what to expect in the coming weeks and months.

 

Gold Stock Investing

 

Weekly Chart of Junior Gold Miner Stocks:

If you follow gold closely then you likely already know junior gold mining stocks can lead the price of gold up to two weeks. Meaning gold mining stocks which you can track by looking at GDX and GDXJ exchange traded funds will form strong bullish chart patterns and generally start moving up in price before physical gold.

The chart below shows the junior gold miner ETF with a VERY BULLISH chart and volume pattern. Remember that gold stocks are a leveraged play on gold in most cases. For example, if gold moves up 1% we typically see GDX and GDXJ move 2-4%. Because they act as a leveraged play on physical gold smart money and big institutions start accumulating these investments in anticipation of gold rising.

GDXJ…
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Real Economy Still Sliding As ‘Eating Out’ Continues to Go Down

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While real consumer spending growth remains perilously close to recessionary levels for another year, one of our favorite indicators of real consumer sentiment (as opposed to the anchoring bias-driven surveys we are force-fed a few times per month) is the growth in spending on eating meals out. As Bloomberg Briefs notes, spending on dining out has fallen from 4.5% growth at the beginning of the year to under 1.8% growth currently (the lowest since May 2010). Add to this the slowdown in jewelry spending and the drag on discretionary spending likely from Sandy and we suspect the modicum of estimate revisions that have started to be published by sell-side analysts will need a little more adjustment.

Real Consumer Spending remains stagnant…

 

while easting out is plunging…

 

Charts: Bloomberg Briefs





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Belgian F-16 Pilot Ejects Before Fiery Crash, Gets Caught In High Voltage Power Lines

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

A Belgian F-16 fighter jet crashed in Northwestern France on Thursday, leaving one of its pilots hanging by his parachute from high voltage electricity lines, according to the BBC

Both pilots had minor injuries after they ejected from the plane, which clipped the roof of a house and crashed in a field near Pluvinger. The pilot stuck in the 250,000 volt power lines was brought down after a two hour rescue operation by French emergency ser...



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Phil's Favorites

Buyer beware: How Libra differs from Bitcoin

 

Buyer beware: How Libra differs from Bitcoin

Recent revelations about the lack of privacy protections in place at the companies involved in Facebook’s new Libra crytocurrency raise concerns about how much trust users can place in Libra. (Shutterstock)

Courtesy of Alfred Lehar, University of Calgary

Facebook, the largest social network in the world, stunned the world earlier this year with the announcement of its own cryptocurrency, Libra.

The launch has raised questions about the difference between Libra and existing cryptocurrencies, as well as the implications of private companies competing with s...



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Digital Currencies

Buyer beware: How Libra differs from Bitcoin

 

Buyer beware: How Libra differs from Bitcoin

Recent revelations about the lack of privacy protections in place at the companies involved in Facebook’s new Libra crytocurrency raise concerns about how much trust users can place in Libra. (Shutterstock)

Courtesy of Alfred Lehar, University of Calgary

Facebook, the largest social network in the world, stunned the world earlier this year with the announcement of its own cryptocurrency, Libra.

The launch has raised questions about the difference between Libra and existing cryptocurrencies, as well as the implications of private companies competing with s...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Look Out Bears! Fed New QE Now Up to $165 Billion

Courtesy of Lee Adler

I have been warning for months that the Fed would need new QE to counter the impact of massive waves of Treasury supply. I thought that that would come later, rather than sooner. Sorry folks, wrong about that. The NY Fed announced another round of new TOMO (Temporary Open Market Operations) today.

In addition to the $75 billion in overnight repos that the Fed issued and has been rolling over since Tuesday, next week the Fed will issue another $90 billion. They’ll come in the form of three $30 billion, 14 day repos to be offered next week.

That brings the new Fed QE to a total of $165 billion. Even in the worst days of the financial crisis, I can’t remember the Fed ballooning its balance sheet by $165 bi...



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The Technical Traders

Is A Price Revaluation Event About To Happen?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Skilled technical traders must be aware that price is setting up for a breakout or breakdown event with recent Doji, Hammer
and other narrow range price bars.  These types of Japanese Candlestick patterns are warnings that price is coiling into
a tight range and the more we see them in a series, the more likely price is building up some type of explosive price breakout/breakdown move in the near future.  The ES (S&P 500 E-mini futures) chart is a perfect example of these types of price bars on the Daily chart (see below).

Tri-Star Tops, Three River Evening Star patterns, Hammers/Hangmen and Dojis are all very common near extreme price peaks and troughs.  The rea...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

India About To Experience Major Strength? Possible Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

If one invested in the India ETF (INDA) back in January of 2012, your total 7-year return would be 24%. During the same time frame, the S&P 500 made 124%. The 7-year spread between the two is a large 100%!

Are things about to improve for the INDA ETF and could it be time for the relative weakness to change? Possible!

This chart looks at the INDA/SPX ratio since early 2012. The ratio continues to be in a major downtrend.

The ratio hit a 7-year low a few months ago and this week it kissed those lows again at (1). The ratio near weeks end is attempting to...



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Insider Scoop

10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Credit Suisse raised IHS Markit Ltd (NYSE: INFO) price target from $68 to $76. IHS Markit shares closed at $67.75 on Thursday.
  • Wedbush boosted Restoration Hardware Holdings, Inc (NYSE: RH) price target from $170 to $185. RH shares closed at $169.49 on Thursday.
  • Mizuho lifted Seagate Technology PLC (NASDAQ: STX) price target from $46 to $50. Seagate shares closed at $52.94 on Thursday.
  • UBS raised the price target for Weight Watchers Intern...


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Chart School

Crude Oil Cycle Bottom aligns with Saudi Oil Attack

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Do the cycles know? Funny how cycle lows attract the need for higher prices, no matter what the news is!

These are the questions before markets on on Monday 16th Aug 2019:

1) A much higher oil price in quick time can not be tolerated by the consumer, as it gives birth to much higher inflation and a tax on the average Joe disposable income. This is recessionary pressure.

2) With (1) above the real issue will be the higher interest rate and US dollar effect on the SP500 near all time highs.

3) A moderately higher oil price is likely to be absorbed and be bullish as it creates income for struggling energy companies and the inflation shock may be muted. 

We shall see. 

...

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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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