Courtesy of Mish.
Inquiring minds digging into the latest Philly Fed Manufacturing Report will quickly discover the rise from last month is really a mirage.
click on chart for sharper image
Index and Details
The previous overall diffusion index rose from -1.9 to +5.7.
However …
- New orders fell into from +1 to -.6
- The number of employees sunk further into contraction
- The average work week fell further into contraction
- Prices paid rose substantially vs. prices received. This shows inability to pass on costs, thus reflects a squeeze on profit margins
- Inventories are up, but shipments are still in contraction following an enormous plunge in shipments last month
6-Month Expectations
I recently said expectations looking six month out were wildly optimistic and they were (and still are).
- Note the plunge in expectations from 41.2 to 21.6.
- New Order expectations fell from 49.4 to 21.1
- Shipment expectations fell from 42.9 to 20.6
- Number of employees fell from 21.4 to 8.0
Doug Short at Advisor Perspectives has an interesting series of Philly Fed Charts. For example, here is a graph of current vs future expectations.
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