Courtesy of Mish.
Initial Reaction and Election Impact
The establishment report of +171,000 jobs was above what most expected. Hurricane Sandy had no effect. The BLS finished gathering stats before the hurricane hit. This report will likely be viewed as favorable for the president.
On the surface, and in detail, this is the best jobs report in quite a while. Jobs gained were full-time jobs for a change. I do not attribute this report to BLS manipulation.
October Jobs Report at a Glance
Here is an overview of today’s release.
- Payrolls +171,000 – Establishment Survey
- US Employment +410,000 – Household Survey
- Involuntary Part-Time Work -269,000 – Household Survey
- Involuntary Part-Time Work +582,000 last month – Household Survey
- Baseline Unemployment Rate +.01 at 7.9% – Household Survey
- U-6 unemployment -.01 to 14.6%.
- The Civilian Labor Force +578,000
Recall that the unemployment rate varies in accordance with the Household Survey not the reported headline jobs number, and not in accordance with the weekly claims data.
Quick Notes About the Unemployment Rate
- US unemployment rate +.1 to 7.9%
- In the last three months the unemployment rate dropped .4%
- Those “not” in the labor force fell a second month, last month by 211,000 and this month by 369,000
- In the last year, those “not” in the labor force rose by 2,128,000
- Over the course of the last year, the number of people employed rose by 3,087,000.
- Participation Rate rose .01 to 63.6%
- Long-Term unemployment (27 weeks and over) was 4,844 million a decline of 189,000
- Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would still be well over 10%.
Over the past several years people have dropped out of the labor force at an astounding, almost unbelievable rate, holding the unemployment rate artificially low. Some of this was due to major revisions last month on account of the 2010 census finally factored in. However, most of it is simply economic weakness.
October 2012 Jobs Report
Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) September 2012 Employment Report.
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