Courtesy of Mish.
People Believe What They Want to Believe
Conventional wisdom says late deciders break against the incumbent.
I said otherwise. I based my 90% likelihood of an Obama win on the notion that late deciders break in an unknown manner but in a big way. When the surge in support for Romney ended following the first debate, it was clear, at least in my mind, that the next momentum change, regardless of which way, was going to seal the fate.
The initial move was towards Obama and hurricane Sandy sealed the fate. Obama not only carried Ohio but Virginia as well, just as I stated.
On Monday, with Nate Silver’s Five Thirty Eight Political Calculus Blog for the New York Times suggesting an 84% percent likelihood of an Obama victory I wrote 90% Chance of Obama Win.
I upped my forecast on the basis of momentum (Nate upped his forecast to 92% on Tuesday morning, also based on momentum).
However, I received countless emails from people telling me to stick to economics because there was no way Obama would win Virginia. I heard from others telling me how biased the polls in favor of Obama were.
I also received many taunts that my election forecasting sucks (in spite of calling 49 of 50 states correctly in the last election before Obama was even nominated! Anyone else do that?)
Well it was not my analysis that sucked, it was the clear bias of Romney supports and Rasmussen that sucked.
As I said, “people believe what they want to believe”.
Far Right Costs Romney the Election
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