Courtesy of Mish.
As expected, at least in this corner, things are going downhill rapidly in France. The French central bank is now predicting recession for France.
Bear in mind Europe tends to use a pretty strict definition of recession – two consecutive quarters of negative GDP.
Courtesy of Google translate from El Economista, please consider France will enter recession in the fourth quarter, according to Bank of France.
The Bank of France expects the country into recession later this year, to predict a fall in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 0.1% in the fourth quarter, the same percentage that fell in the previous three months. If confirmed, it would be the first recession in the French economy since the 2009 crisis.
This is the first estimate of the situation issued by the Bank of France, which occurs a few days before you make the National Statistics Institute (INSEE), on November 15.
In its latest forecast, the INSEE predicted stagnation in the French economy in the last two quarters of the year and growth in the full year of 0.2%, one tenth less than what the government provides.
Production falls
In a note on circumstances, the Bank of France reported a further fall in industrial production in October, “mainly due to the continued decline in activity in the automotive sector.”
In addition, the entity estimates that the backlog of French industry is still at an “insufficient” and that the forecast for November entrepreneurs scenarios are based on “slight reduction in activity.”
In the area of services, the Bank of France acknowledged that the activity also declined in October, although the picture is slightly less pessimistic than in the industrial production sector.
In its latest economic forecasts in May, Brussels expected gross domestic product (GDP) French creciese to 1.3% in 2013, estimates now revised downwards.
Any notion that France will grow 1.2% in 2013 is downright preposterous. The surprise, if any, is things are not much worse. They will be.
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