Archive for 2012

Stuff Bosses Have Said

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

In 26 years on Wall Street, Nic Colas of ConvergEx, has worked for seven firms and reported to nine different people.  His insights make up a highlight reel of things those people have told him which have stuck in his memory over the years (for better or worse) and seemed worth sharing with a broader audience.  The most insightful: “Don’t make this game harder than it has to be.”  From the same boss, the most motivating: “Someone is getting the information before you.  Why don’t I fire you and hire them?”  On customer service: “What am I? A pimp?  Get me a black car.”  And possibly the most important for someone who makes their living serving the investment community on the sell-side: “Do you know what it means when a dog shows well?”

 

I have had the good fortune to make a living on Wall Street for just over 25 years, and during that time I have reported to nine different bosses.  All of them have held the reins with a light hand, but they all have at some point passed along some wisdom that has stuck in my head.  Today’s note is a compendium of their most notable sayings, with a brief explanation of the featured aphorism as well as a little context around them.

 

“We clean our trays.”

Like many investment professionals of my generation, I started during the great mutual fund boom of the 1980s.  My first job was in the customer service department of what is now one of the largest fund companies in the world, sitting in the mail room looking for checks from brokers to buy either a mortgage securities, small cap stock, or technology fund.  That was the extent of the offering at the time, which gives you a sense of how early the firm was in the development of its mutual fund offerings.

 

My first boss came out of the transfer agency world, and he spent most of his time on the road visiting the operations departments of our broker customers.  He was what we would now call an “Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder” neat freak, and the first thing he would do when boarding a plane was to check the cleanliness of his tray table.  If it wasn’t spotless, he would spend the rest of…
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Financial Instability For (Keynesian) Dummies

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

In a little under eight minutes, a plethora of today’s more outspoken realists, economists, and journalists provide a simple yet clear path through the financial crisis to critically explain how the so-called equilibrium that so many mainstream analysts and economists trusted as fact has been proven as simple fiction. The hard-to-accept truth is that financial instability is in fact the natural state of our economic environments and that credit and banking lie at the very heart of that difference between Keynesian / Neo-classical dogma and the tough new reality that the world’s major economies now face. The political and economic elite have “blind-sided themselves to the role of rising debt in funding what is really the biggest ponzi scheme in human history” and that the “blind-faith in institutions and mechanisms has cracked post-2007″. From too-simple DSGE ‘economic models’ to ‘representative agents’ to the fact that financial systems are the cause of economic instability, a number of the new normal’s best thinkers (including Stiglitz, Keen, Kinsella, and Bezemer), courtesy of INETeconomics, provide a very layman’s guide to the (hopefully not so shocking to our readers) new reality of how critical credit and debt is in our brave new world and how entirely misrepresented it is in mainstream thinking. Must Watch, if for nothing else, the crushing conclusion for many neo-classicals that when you can’t tweak your models any more, you need to move on to some next paradigm.

 





Hallwood Group Receives Audit Opinion With Going Concern Explanation

Courtesy of Benzinga.

AuRico Gold (NYSE: AUQ) is pleased to provide an update to its operational guidance for the next three years. While guidance on production, cash costs, and capital expenditures at AuRico’s core operations has not changed, the Company wishes to highlight updated consolidated guidance that reflects the recently announced divestitures of its non-core mines. On March 27, AuRico announced the execution of a definitive agreement regarding the divestiture of its Australian mines, and on April 15, AuRico announced the execution of a definitive agreement regarding the sale of the El Cubo mine and the Guadalupe y Calvo project in Mexico.

The divestitures are consistent with AuRico Gold’s strategy of focusing on its large, low cost, core assets in North America. AuRico Gold is now directing all of its attention to delivering value for shareholders from its three core operating mines, including Young-Davidson where first production is imminent, and its development pipeline in Mexico and Canada.


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AuRico Gold Updates Guidance

Courtesy of Benzinga.

AuRico Gold (NYSE: AUQ) is pleased to provide an update to its operational guidance for the next three years. While guidance on production, cash costs, and capital expenditures at AuRico’s core operations has not changed, the Company wishes to highlight updated consolidated guidance that reflects the recently announced divestitures of its non-core mines. On March 27, AuRico announced the execution of a definitive agreement regarding the divestiture of its Australian mines, and on April 15, AuRico announced the execution of a definitive agreement regarding the sale of the El Cubo mine and the Guadalupe y Calvo project in Mexico.

The divestitures are consistent with AuRico Gold’s strategy of focusing on its large, low cost, core assets in North America. AuRico Gold is now directing all of its attention to delivering value for shareholders from its three core operating mines, including Young-Davidson where first production is imminent, and its development pipeline in Mexico and Canada.


For more Benzinga, visit Benzinga Professional Service, Value Investor, and Stocks Under $5.





Is Your Unemployment Chart Upside Down?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by CrownThomas.

Is your unemployment chart that you’re focusing on upside down? I contend that it is.

As the “official” unemployment rate ticked down to 8.2% in March, and the actual unemployment rate ticked down to 14.8%, here is the chart you’ll be shown from the mainstream media, especially during this election season:

 

 

That’s nice. Except for the fact that people who are willing & capable of working are leaving the workforce en masse.

The number of people not in the labor force is now at an all time high, as nearly 88 million people are not participating (must be everyone is just able to retire?)

 

Also, one of the most interesting charts I’ve come across (via IceCap Asset Management), shows the total number of Americans who have a job, in any capacity. This number has now dipped below 64%, and even if the Bernank buys all the bad debt in the world it will have difficulty correcting this trend. If I were Mitt Romney or Ron Paul, I’d put this on the front of my podium and use it as a back drop for each & every speaking engagement I had:

 

So, what are you focused on? If you’re looking strictly at a chart of the “official” unemployment rate, you should flip it upside down – that would give you a better idea of how things really are out there.

After all, what Keynesians seem to consistently forget, is that a stock market =/= an economy.

 

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg, Zero Hedge, IceCap Asset Mgmt

 

 





With Europe Broken Again, Sarkozy And Lagarde Are Back To Begging

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

What a difference a month makes. About 4 weeks ago the European crisis was “over” – French President Sarkozy exclaimed that: “Today, the problem is solved!” Christine Lagarde, former French finance minister, and current IMF head following the framing of DSK, added that “Economic spring is in the air!”… Fast forward to today when following the inevitable end of the transitory favorable effects of the LTRO (remember: flow not stock, a/k/a the shark can not stop moving forward), the collapse of the Spanish stock market, the now daily halting of Italian financial stocks, the inevitable announcement that shorting of financials in Europe is again forbidden, and finally the record spike in Spanish CDS, Europe is broken all over again. Which brings us again the Sarkozy and Lagarde. The Frenchman who is about to lose the presidential race to socialist competitor Hollande (an event which will have major ramifications for Europe as UBS’ George Magnus patiently explained two months ago), no longer sees anything as solved, and instead is openly begging for the ECB to inject more, more, more money into the system to pretend that “problems are solved” for a few more months. Incidentally, so is Lagarde, for whom in an odd change of seasons, economic spring is about to be followed by a depressionary winter. The problem is both will end up empty handed, as the well may just have run dry.

From the FT:

In effect ripping up a deal to shelve public differences over the ECB reached in November at the height of the eurozone crisis with Ms Merkel and Mario Monti, the Italian prime minister, Mr Sarkozy said the matter of ECB support for growth was “a question we cannot avoid”

 

He said: “If the central bank does not support growth, there will not be enough growth . . . I know the difficulties that surround this subject but we have the duty to reflect on it because it is a major problem for the future of Europe.”

 

Mr Sarkozy said: “Europe must purge its debts, it has no choice. But between deflation and growth, it has no more choice. If Europe chooses deflation it will die. We, the French, will open the debate on the role of the central bank in the


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The Pain in Spain

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Since posting my routine weekend update on world market indexes, I’ve received a couple of requests to include Spain’s benchmark index, the IBEX 35, in the series. The eight indexes I include in that update make my illustrations about as cluttered as I can deal with.

But the requests triggered my own curiosity about the Spanish index. My solution was to create an overlay of the S&P 500 and the IBEX since 2007. Both indexes peaked in late 2007, about a month apart. So I’ve charted the percent off their respective peaks for what I believe is a fascinating comparison.


 

 

Interestingly enough, both set a closing low on the same day, March 9th 2009, and the percent of decline was nearly identical. Likewise their recoveries over the next 18 months were quite similar, although the IBEX was the more volatile of the two.

But in the late summer of 2010, the two indexes parted company. The divergence dates from approximately the date of Chairman Bernanke’s speech at the Fed’s 2010 annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming (August 27, 2010). Bernanke strongly hinted at the forthcoming Federal Reserve intervention that was subsequently initiated in November of 2010, namely, the second round of quantitative easing, aka QE2. The US markets responded with a sustained rally that ultimately topped out in April of 2011. The selloff that followed (a near cyclical bear decline of 19.39%) reversed shortly after the announcement of Operation Twist on September 21st. For more on the Fed intervention, see this commentary and the chart below.

 

 

Alas, the Spanish market has not enjoyed comparable government intervention.

 

 

 

 

 

 





Tim Geithner Glitch In The Matrix Special: Will America Become Greece In Two Years – “No Risk Of That”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Geithner April 2011:  “Is there a risk that the United States could lose its AAA credit rating? Yes or no?” – Tim Geithner: “No risk of that.”

….

Geithner April 2012:  “If we don’t deal with these debt problems we are going to be Greece in two years” – Tim Geithner: “No risk of that.”

On Friday we learned that in 2011, the president paid a less than “fair” 20.5% in taxes on his joint income, substantially less than pretty much most Americans who listen to the now virtually daily sermons on the fairness of class warfare. It prompted us to wonder if the president has not been taking tax advice from the likes of the Treasury secretary, best known not for destroying the US economy, but for having some tax “underpayment” issues of his own, which however TurboTax was delighted to take the blame for. Which explains why now that the president may appear just somewhat disingenuous when discussing tax “fairness”, it is up to the lackey who made tax evasion cool all over again, to defend the “fairness” of the Buffett Rule (shown graphically here) in today’s episode of 60 Minutes. Oddly enough we were expecting Timmy to tell everyone to just use TurboTax… and some creative imagination when it comes to reporting income: he did not, instead he said “If we don’t push for things that make sense, then we’re not governing“. No comment there.

But wait there’s more: in a disastrous attempt to prevent the repeat of last August, when a 3 month showdown over the US debt limit ended up crashing the stock market, and culminated with the downgrade of America’s AAA rating, Geithner, who previously said there is no risk of the US ever being downgraded (4 months before it was), urged Congress against repeating last year’s “very damaging” debate over the debt limit, adding that the economy is stronger than at any time in the past several years. We wonder though – very damaging to whom exactly: the liars who claim that ‘America’s economy is stronger than ever’, courtesy of well over $2 trillion in debt in the past two years? Or that the debt ceiling will be breached all over again before the presidential election,…
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Weekly Market Commentary: Sharp Drop in Breadth

Courtesy of Declan Fallon

It was a bad week for Nasdaq breadth as the Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA gapped sharply down to 34% while the parent index lost just over 2%; this has left a significant bearish divergence between breadth and the Nasdaq.

The Nasdaq Bullish Percents is still in the early stages of mapping a swing high.  Although a peak in this indicator doesn’t necessarily correlate to a peak in the Nasdaq itself; see the Bullish Percent swing highs in 2009.

As the Summation Index dropped out of its rising channel.

Meanwhile the Nasdaq rebounded off broadening wedge resistance on higher volume distribution, but there is plenty of room to support. However, given breadth weakness some more downside is likely in the weeks ahead.

Small Caps took their losses but it finished the week on neckline support. Rising channel support will soon converge with the neckline.

Finally, the S&P closed the week on 1,370, but the losses weren’t as great as for the Nasdaq and Russell 2000. However, the index experienced distribution on the week.

Given the sharp drop in breadth it’s likely it will translate into further weakness for the indices.  However, this action favors a pullback rather than a full breakdown. It will take a break of the rising channels to suggest something more terminal is at work, but markets will likely attempt a rally before they get there.

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Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com. I offer a range of stock trading strategies for global markets which can be Previewed for Free


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Zero Hedge

Johns Hopkins, Bristol-Myers Face $1 Billion Suit For Infecting Guatemalan Hookers With Syphilis 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A federal judge in Maryland said Johns Hopkins University, pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb and the Rockefeller Foundation must face a $1 billion lawsuit over their roles in a top-secret program in the 1940s ran by the US government that injected hundreds of Guatemalans with syphilis, reported Reuters.

Several doctors from Hopkins an...



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ValueWalk

The Competition For Capital Has Made Stocks Cheap

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The new year is upon us, and now is the time many investors look at what 2018 was and prepare for what 2019 might be. Recession jitters are starting to pick back up again, especially now that the full picture of 2018 is in the books. But what if you could pick only one theme for 2018? Jefferies strategist Sean Darby and team have a suggestion which is especially timely given that it appears to mark the end of an era.

StockSnap / PixabayVolatility carries into the new year

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Divisive economics

 

Guest author David Brin — scientist, technology consultant, best-selling author and futurist — explores the records of Democrats and Republicans on the US economy in the following post. For David's latest posts, visit the CONTRARY BRIN blog. For his books and short stories, visit his web...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock declines did not break 9-year support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We often hear “Stocks take an escalator up and an elevator down!” No doubt stocks did experience a swift decline from the September highs to the Christmas eve lows. Looks like the “elevator” part of the phrase came true as 2018 was coming to an end.

The first part of the “stocks take an escalator up” seems to still be in play as well despite the swift decline of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- All of these indices hit long-term rising support on Christmas Eve at each (1), where support held and rallies have followed.

If you find long-term perspectives helpf...



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Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



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Cars.com Explores Strategic Alternatives, Analyst Sees Possible Sale Price Around $30 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

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Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

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Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

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Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

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Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

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Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

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About Phil:

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