Archive for 2012

On Gold’s Recent Resilience

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Some might be surprised by the title’s positivity, but while the barbarous relic has meandered in an ever-compressing (triangle pattern) series of waves in the last few months, it has rather notably outperformed relative to global risk aversion, CFTC positioning, and central bank balance sheet dynamics – especially in the last few weeks. Whether the yellow metal’s zero-yield is now ‘technically’ attractive to safe-haven flows relative to the NIRPs of Germany and Switzerland – or in fundamental anticipation of the next bout of central bank largesse, Citi’s global macro strategy group remain bullish of the precious metal and the charts below suggest they are not alone.

$1650 seems like the key ‘technical’ line in the sand for another leg up as the small (and large) triangles come into play…

 

but Gold’s resilience in the face of…

1. a ‘slowing’ or contracting global central bank balance sheet…

 

2. volatility in Citi’s risk-aversion index (GRAMI)…

 

3. and a notable ‘apparent’ derisking based on CFTC Futures & Options Net Positioning…

 

It seems there is either a degree of buying in precious metals that is anticipating an increase in risk-aversion OR it is anticipating central bank largesse. What is critically clear is that gold’s gyrations and uncertainty relative all of these three indicators since the end of LTRO2 has fallen suggesting its diversification and ‘hedge-ability’ for both risk-on (liquidity-driven exuberance) and risk-off (safe-haven sourcing in a NIRP world) is increasingly appealing.

 

One thing is sure – the view that precious metals are a put on political stupidity remains front-and-center – as fundamentals take a back-seat to the monetary addiction of the world’s advanced economies (and perhaps tonight’s negative nominal GDP print for Japan – leaving the nation in deflation 50% of the quarters of the last 5 years – is priming for more print-and-be-damned excess – though China’s reverse-repo test should be a concern for all those ‘hoping’ for stimulus extravaganza)

 

Charts: Citi





Merkel Is Baaaaaaack

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Hold on tight boys and girls, cause Merkel is back from vacation, and she is not happy despite that healthy Santorini due diligence-inspired tan (as deputy-Chancellor Fuchs telegraphed earlier today, when he made it quite clear what his boss thinks about Greece, and about more printing). Per Bloomberg: “German Chancellor Angela Merkel returns to the front line of the European debt crisis this week as the bloc’s leaders squabble over measures including bond purchases to relieve concerns the single currency may fragment. Merkel ends her summer vacation and travels to Canada Aug. 15-16 for talks with Prime Minister Stephen Harper as a spiraling euro crisis threatens to constrain the global economy. With the region’s leaders awaiting a German high court decision on bailout funding next month, they’re struggling to smooth divisions over a European Central Bank plan to buy the bonds of indebted nations.”

Bloomberg proceeds to recap what we already have explained over and over: the lack of an impetus by soon to be bailed out governments to act if they are bailed out, coupled with the impetus to cheat and do nothing, as well as the inevitable arrival of the German referendum.

“It makes no sense for the ECB to start financing” Spain and Italy, ECB Governing Council member Luc Coene said in an interview with newspapers De Tijd and L’Echo published on Aug. 11. “It would only lead to the ECB taking on the whole public debt of Spain and Italy onto its balance sheet.”

 

The possibility that Germany’s high court will demand greater elector participation in euro decisions raised the prospect of a referendum in the euro area’s biggest economy, placing the country’s commitment to the currency in the hands of voters at time that polls show rising discontent with the costs of the crisis.

 

The policy maker said the central bank’s experience a year ago demonstrates why the ECB is reluctant to step in. 

 

“We haven’t forgotten what happened in August of last year: We bought Italian bonds and right after that the Italian government reneged on its pledges,” Coene was quoted as saying. “The conclusion is clear: When you take away the market pressure, you take away the pressure on politicians to act.” 


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Bankster Fraud Has Driven 100 Million Into Poverty, Killing Many

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by George Washington.

Fraud caused the Great Depression and the current financial crisis, and the economy will never recover until fraud is prosecuted.

Fraud is the business model adopted by the giant banks. See this.

The Obama administration has made it official policy not to prosecute fraud.  Indeed, the “watchdogs” in D.C. are so corrupt that they are as easily bribed as a policeman in a third world banana republic.

The mouthpieces in Wall Street and D.C.  pretend that financial  fraud (like Libor) is a “victimless crime“.

But the World Bank notes that the financial crisis  – you know, the one caused by financial fraud – has driven between 64 and  100 million people into destitution.

Some estimate the figure to be much higher. For example, one 2009 study estimated that 140 million people would be driven into poverty in Asia alone.

AP reported in 2009:

The global financial crisis has pushed the ranks of the hungry to a record 1 billion people … United Nations food officials said Friday in Rome.

This is not just a matter of having less money for entertainment or luxury goods.  Increased poverty leads to an earlier death.

As the Los Angeles times notes:

Poverty appears to trump smoking, obesity and education as a health burden, potentially causing a loss of 8.2 years of perfect health.

This is not an abstract concept. A lot of kids will die due to Wall Street fraud:

The global financial crisis sweeping through Wall Street and the European banking sector will touch the lives of the world’s most vulnerable, pushing millions into deeper poverty and leading to the deaths of thousands of children, according to a new United Nations study.

 

***

 

The report highlighted the


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Obama On America’s Drought: Blame Congress

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Last week Obama insinuated that in the aftermath of the “amazing” post-bankruptcy GM recovery, his next plan is to bailout, well, everyone: “I believe in American workers, I believe in this American industry, and now the American auto industry has come roaring back… Now I want to do the same thing with manufacturing jobs, not just in the auto industry, but in every industry.” Also, as it appears, the Bailout’er-In-Chief has taken the saying “make it rain” a little too close to heart, and is now taking the worst drought in decades as a personal central planning challenge. Just because he can. There is one thing preventing him for bailing out US farmers: that thing apparently is evil congress. From his weekly address: “This is an all hands on deck response…  But my administration can’t do it alone. Congress needs to do its part too. They need to pass a farm bill that not only helps farmers and ranchers respond to these kinds of disasters, but also makes necessary reforms and gives them certainly year round…. So call your members of congress, write them an email and tell them that now is the time to come together and get this done. Too many Americans are suffering right now to let politics get in the way.” All righty then GOP – you heard the president: stop blocking the man who would end the drought if not for your disturbing lack of faith, and vote promptly for “Let’s All Make It Rain: It’s Only Fair” bill. How else can the systematic bailout of everyone and everything proceed as planned?





Medidata $MDSO: Software-as-a-Profit-Provider

Courtesy of Declan Fallon

My latest Motley Fool post on Medidata is available here.

Other posts of mine can be obtained here.





Welcome to the Third World, Part 7: Bye Bye, Public Services

Courtesy of John Rubino.

Meredith Whitney was an obscure Oppenheimer & Co. bank analyst back in 2008 when she broke from the pack and predicted Armageddon. She was right, the pack was wrong, and she parlayed her new-found fame into a research boutique of her own.

Last year she went for it again, predicting that the next big crisis would be in municipal bonds, as U.S. cities, counties and states ran out of money and started defaulting. This call didn’t pan out as quickly:

Meredith Whitney Loses Credibility as Muni Defaults Fall 60%
July 15, 2011 — Time is running out on the credibility of Meredith Whitney, who has yet to acknowledge that her eight-month-old prediction of widespread defaults this year in the market for state and local government debt is proving unfounded.

Defaults fell 60 percent in the first half of 2011 compared with the same period last year, including a $12.5 million Austin, Texas, apartment project that made a late payment in June, according to Distressed Debt Securities Newsletter.

Meredith Whitney, 41, who started New York-based Meredith Whitney Advisory Group LLC in 2009 after leaving Oppenheimer & Co., predicted 50 to 100 “sizable” municipal defaults as states slashed spending, in the interview with CBS Corp.’s “60 Minutes.”

Whitney, the analyst who rose to prominence by predicting Citigroup Inc.’s 2008 dividend cut, predicted “hundreds of billions of dollars” of municipal defaults within 12 months in a Dec. 19 “60 Minutes” broadcast, fueling a wave of selling in the $2.9 trillion market. Instead, the number has fallen as cities slashed spending to balance budgets and state lawmakers stepped in to guard against insolvency and local bankruptcies.

“The data is not helping Meredith,” said Matt Fabian, a managing director at Municipal Market Advisors, a financial- research company based in Concord, Massachusetts. “It’s always been a possibility there would be a wave of defaults. You can’t say that it’s zero but it’s given no sign of starting.”

But fast forward a year and Whitney’s looking pretty smart. A wave of California cities have gone bankrupt, with more around the country in the pipeline. Consider this from yesterday’s Wall Street Journal:

Hard Times Spread for Cities
Fiscal woes that have caused high-profile bankruptcies in California are surfacing across the country as municipalities struggle with uneven growth and escalating health and


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America’s Future: Crony Social Darwinism versus Crony Socialism

Courtesy of Russ Winter of Winter Watch at Wall Street Examiner

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney’s selection of Paul Ryan as his vice presidential running mate signals an escalation of the political debate between crony social Darwinism and crony Socialism — both certain prescriptions for disaster and both largely benefiting plutocrats.
 
Stephen Hayes of The Weekly Standard said Romney would enact Ryan’s plan within his first 100 days in office. Last year, a consortium of nonpartisan anti-deficit groups created an award for “promoting fiscal responsibility and government accountability,” called The Fiscy Award, and bestowed it upon Ryan.

Upon closer examination of Ryan’s budget plan, one finds that in reality Ryan is a facade. His plan is about everything but deficit reduction and would lead to a complete collapse of revenue. It offers few spending cuts other than out year smoke and mirrors.

Matt Taibbi describes it well in Tax cuts for the Rich, Paul Ryan has Balls.

The Republicans, quite smartly, recognize that there is great political hay to be made in the appearance of deficit reduction, and that white middle class voters will respond with overwhelming enthusiasm to any call for reductions in the “welfare state,” a term which said voters will instantly associate with black welfare moms and Mexicans sneaking over the border to visit American emergency rooms.

The problem, of course, is that to actually make significant cuts in what is left of the “welfare state,” one has to cut Medicare and Medicaid, programs overwhelmingly patronized by white people, and particularly white seniors. So when the time comes to actually pull the trigger on the proposed reductions, the whippersnappers are quietly removed from the stage and life goes on as usual, i.e. with massive deficit spending on defense, upper-class tax cuts, bailouts, corporate subsidies, and big handouts to Pharma and the insurance industries.

Ryan’s tax-cut proposals are evasive and sneaky. He proposes two tax brackets of 10 and 25 percent that are quite non-progressive, without taking into account “closing loopholes.” Ryan plan, as calculated by the Tax Policy Center, found that relative to today’s tax system, those making $1 million or more would enjoy an average tax cut of $265,000 and see their after-tax income increase by 12.5 percent. By contrast, half of those making between $20,000 and $30,000 would get no tax cut at all. Nearly all middle-income households (those making between $50,000 and $75,000) would see their taxes fall,…
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More “Source” Input On Coming Precious Metals Price Explosions

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by lemetropole.

Bill Murphy

Chairman Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee

www.LeMetropoleCafe.com

August 12 – Gold $1619.70 – Silver $28.06

More “Source” Input On Coming Precious Metals Price Explosions

Over the past month+ I have been pounding the table that based on information from three extremely informed sources the prices of gold and silver would begin their launches to much higher prices in August … a launch that would lead to all-time highs in both precious metals and well beyond.

The reason for this Mini-Midas is that I just received some new input, which supports what my original sources have been telling us for some time. It is from someone I have known for a long while and is of the same caliber as my other sources in terms of reliability. When you have traded commodities and stocks as long as I have, and get to be my age, it is fairly easy to sort that all out … and what to run with.

Here it is … short, sweet, and maybe VERY important:

August 10, 2012

The METALS

I have spoken before about my contact on the Board of Trade who trades mainly the metals and is in touch with New York minute by minute. He has been saying for several weeks that the metals would have one more big drop (1525-1550) before they really took off. Today he changed his mind. They saw heavy covering of shorts in Chicago and New York. This should show in next week’s COT. They see an explosion of huge proportions and are adding four more floor traders as they see August as a record month for them. He closed by saying “We could see a 100% increase in 90 days.” Tie this in with other things that we have read and heard. Golden regards
Peter

If what Peter sends us pans out anywhere close to what he has been told, this Mini-Midas is more than well worth the read. What fascinates me is that this new input confirms what my other three sources have been saying. Now we wait to see how this plays out in the three weeks of trading left ahead in August.

In addition, as you well know by now, it has come to my attention from all


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It Is A Strange World We Inhabit

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Seth Klarman sums up everything:

“The market roller coaster of 2012 continues. Speedy ascents. Sudden plummets. Unexpected twists and turns. Gut-wrenching volatility, only to end up where you began.”

 

“It is a strange world we inhabit. One where economies remain extremely depressed yet almost no companies go bankrupt, while low interest rates encourage holders of capital to speculate. One where global turmoil mounts while the world passively watches. One where nearly every member of Congress will insist that we need to rein in deficit spending, while collectively Congress accomplishes virtually nothing. It would be absurdly funny if it weren’t so incredibly tragic.

Source: Baupost Q2 Letter





Weekly Market Commentary: Modest Gains

Courtesy of Declan Fallon

The week finished with a small gain for the indices.  Vacation trading means any substantial move is going to struggle to gain momentum until September rolls in.

The Dow is nicely primed for a breakout, although volume will need to be more inspiring than recent weeks.

The Russell 2000 had little to show other than a MACD trigger ‘buy’ on the weekly timeframe.  However, Stochastics are still working off an overbought condition so it’s not an ideal time to be buying given the last swing high failed to make it into overbought territory.

The Nasdaq had probably the best of the weeks action, gaining almost 2% on okay volume.  It too saw a MACD trigger ‘buy’.

Although Nasdaq Market Breadth was little changed.  The Summation Index is a good example of this

The S&P, like the Dow, is ready to break.

Next week will be important for those S&P and Dow breakouts.

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Weekly Market Recap Jan 20, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

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Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

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To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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