Archive for 2012

The NBER Co-incident Recession Model: ”Confirmation of Last Resort”

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Note from dshort: Here is a updated version of Dwaine’s article published earlier this week, now with a new section 8.


The National Bureau for Economic Research (NBER) are the final arbiters of recession dating in the U.S. They take forever to proclaim specific starts and ends to expansions so all the revisions can “work their way through” and they can be dead accurate. Given these proclamation lags can take up to 12 months, their announcements are good for historical, academic and back-testing use only. Now given that many reputable people are claiming we (1) are already in recession or (2) are about to enter one, let us discard all our fancy models aside and look hard at what the NBER will be looking at.

The NBER does not define a recession in terms of two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. Rather, a recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.

They will be examining 4 co-incident indicators:

  1. Industrial Production
  2. Real personal income less transfers deflated by personal consumption expenditure
  3. Non-farm payrolls
  4. Real retail sales deflated by consumer price index

The aim of this research note is to apply traditional recession forecasting and probability modelling techniques to these 4 co-incident indicators so that we can “see what the NBER are seeing.” Bear in mind, the 4 components are co-incident and thus the recession model we build is likely to be at least 1-month lagging in its determinations. The aim here is not “real-time forecasting” of recessions (we use the Recession Forecasting Ensemble for this) but to obtain “confirmation of last resort” that we are indeed in recession.

The data obtained for the 4 co-incident NBER indicators are taken from these monthly updated charts at the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis which gives “some idea” about if we are in recession or not but is a bit difficult to determine how far from recession we are. The 2nd determination is a bit more important to the stock market operator or fund manager than the first.

1. Industrial Production
In this instance we have found the 6-month smoothed growth rate (as…
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Guest Post: The Eminent Domain Mortgage Heist

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by John Aziz of Azizonomics

The Eminent Domain Mortgage Heist

Matt Taibbi:

Something very interesting is happening.

 

There’s been so much corruption on Wall Street in recent years, and the federal government has appeared to be so deeply complicit in many of the problems, that many people have experienced something very like despair over the question of what to do about it all. 

 

But there’s something brewing that looks like it might be a blueprint to effectively take on the financial services industry: a plan to allow local governments to take on the problem of neighborhoods blighted by toxic home loans and foreclosures through the use of eminent domain. I can’t speak for how well the program will work, but it’s certaily been effective in scaring the hell out of Wall Street. 

 

Under the proposal, towns would essentially be seizing and condemning the man-made mess resulting from the housing bubble.

I approach the issue and constitutionality of eminent domain — government seizing of property in exchange for whatever the government defines as just compensation — very suspiciously. While I am altogether hostile to the idea of government being able to declare that what is yours is not yours, it has recently become a device for government to transfer private property from one private owner to another.

In Kelo v. City of New London (2005), the use of eminent domain to transfer land from one private owner to another private owner to further economic development was deemed to be constitutional. In a 5–4 decision, the Court held that the general benefits a community enjoyed from economic growth qualified private redevelopment plans as a permissible public use under the Takings Clause of the Fifth Amendment.

While seizing land with compensation to build a highway for public use is one thing, seizing property for the private profit of others is quite another. Yet many like Taibbi are heralding the potential of seizing underwater mortgages. I will consider any initiative to reduce total debt and deleveraging costs, as I believe that excessive total debt is the largest cause of today’s depression. But given the history, I have every right to be cautious and even suspicious.

Taibbi:

The plan is being put forward by a company called 


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Titanic Banks Hit Libor Iceberg

 

Pic credit: Georges Niji at Wikipedia 

Titanic Banks Hit Libor Iceberg

Courtesy of ELLEN BROWN, Web of Debt

At one time, calling the large multinational banks a “cartel” branded you as a conspiracy theorist.   Today the banking giants are being called that and worse, not just in the major media but in court documents intended to prove the allegations as facts.  Charges include racketeering (organized crime under the U.S. Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act or RICO), antitrust violations, wire fraud, bid-rigging, and price-fixing.  Damning charges have already been proven, and major damages and penalties assessed.  Conspiracy theory has become established fact.

In an article in the July 3rd Guardian titled “Private Banks Have Failed – We Need a Public Solution”, Seumas Milne writes of the LIBOR rate-rigging scandal admitted to by Barclays Bank:

It’s already clear that the rate rigging, which depends on collusion, goes far beyond Barclays, and indeed the City of London. This is one of multiple scams that have become endemic in a disastrously deregulated system with inbuilt incentives for cartels to manipulate the core price of finance.

. . . It could of course have happened only in a private-dominated financial sector, and makes a nonsense of the bankrupt free-market ideology that still holds sway in public life.

. . . A crucial part of the explanation is the unmuzzled political and economic power of the City. . . . Finance has usurped democracy.

Bid-rigging and Rate-rigging

Bid-rigging was the subject of U.S. v. Carollo, Goldberg and Grimm, a ten-year suit in which the U.S. Department of Justice obtained a judgment on May 11 against three GE Capital employees.  Billions of dollars were skimmed from cities all across America by colluding to rig the public bids on municipal bonds, a business worth $3.7 trillion.  Other banks involved in the bidding scheme included Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and UBS.  These banks have already paid a total of $673 million in restitution after agreeing to cooperate in the government’s case.

Hot on the heels of the Carollo decision came the LIBOR scandal, involving collusion to rig the inter-bank interest rate that affects $500 trillion worth of contracts, financial instruments, mortgages and loans. Barclays Bank admitted to regulators in June that it tried to manipulate LIBOR before and during the financial crisis in 2008.  It said that other banks


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Spain bailout fears peak after black Friday

Spain bailout fears peak after black Friday (via AFP)

A eurozone bailout for Spain's banks and a tough batch of pay cuts and tax hikes have not been enough to save the country from the risk of a full-blown bailout, analysts warn. Squeezed between public outrage at its austere economic reforms and pressure from European authorities to strengthen its public…





Chris Hedges: Church of All Souls in New York City February 7, 2012

Courtesy of Jesse's Cafe Americain

Here is another interesting address from Chris Hedges from earlier this year.


 





Japan steelmakers see profit dive in April-June

Japan steelmakers see profit dive in April-June (via AFP)

Japan's biggest steelmakers likely suffered a plunge in recurring profit of up to 80 percent in the April-June quarter as competition with Chinese rivals drove prices down, according to a report. Nippon Steel likely recorded less than 10 billion yen (127 million) in consolidated recurring profit for…





German retail sector in upheaval

German retail sector in upheaval (via AFP)

With a string of high-profile bankruptcies and thousands of layoffs, the German retail sector is in upheaval as it struggles with the challenges of changing customer trends and online shopping. The sector was prospering until just a few years ago, but over the last two years some of its oldest players…





Stock World Weekly: Dead and Deader

NEW: SWW writers and Ilene are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Read this week's Stock World Weekly by clicking here and signing in or signing up >





HSBC scandal erupts as British banks face shake-up

HSBC scandal erupts as British banks face shake-up (via AFP)

A scandal erupting at Europe's biggest bank HSBC has added to concerns over the state of Britain's financial sector amid the Barclays rate-rigging affair and as the industry faces a major shake-up. HSBC last week apologised and its head of compliance David Bagley resigned after US lawmakers accused…





Violence rages across Syria as UN mission clock ticks

Violence rages across Syria as UN mission clock ticks (via AFP)

Heavy clashes raged between Syrian troops and rebels, with at least 130 people killed nationwide, as the clock ticked down on a 30-day "final" extension of a troubled UN observer mission. At least 64 civilians were among the dead as clashes rocked both of the country's largest cities, the Syrian Observatory…





 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

US House condemns Donald Trump's racist tweets - why his language is so dangerous

 

US House condemns Donald Trump's racist tweets – why his language is so dangerous

Courtesy of Natasha Lindstaedt, University of Essex

President Donald Trump has been denounced by the US House of Representatives for tweets attacking four Democratic Congresswomen of colour calling on them to “go back and help fix the totally broken and crime infested places from which they came”. The resolution, which passed by 240 to 187 votes on July 16, condemned the “racist comments that have legitimised fear and hatred of New Americans and people of colour”.

In response to Trump’s threat, the four...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Aussie Dollar About To Send Bullish Message To Precious Metals?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The Australian Dollar and its ETF (NYSEARCA: FXA) have traded sideways for much of the past 4 years (see blue shaded area on chart above).

And since the Aussie Dollar and precious metals are highly correlated, this hasn’t helped gold and silver.

But this setup may be changing soon as a big test comes into play for the AU$.

It is currently testing falling resistance on a bullish falling wedge pattern.

If it succeeds in breaking out at (1), it will send metals and commodities a short-term bullish message. Stay tuned!

This article was first writ...



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Zero Hedge

Three Iranians Caught Smuggling "Many Tons" Of Nuke-Related Material Out Of US

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A major case involving three Iranian citizens who for years allegedly smuggled nuclear related materials into Iran from a US broker has been revealed this week in a New York federal court. 

The scheme involved illegally exporting "many tons" of carbon fiber out of the United States between 2008 and 2013, which federal prosecutors say violated existing US sanctions and a UN em...



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Insider Scoop

Cannabis Stocks Gainers And Losers From July 17, 2019

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Read more about our latest Cannabis News! CANNABIS HOME Gainers
  • Aurora Cannabis (NYSE: ACB) shares rose 3.49%, to close at $7.41.
  • Aphria (NYSE: APHA) shares increased by 3.97% to close at $6.55.
  • Canopy...


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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Breaks Back Below $10k, Crypto-Crash Accelerates As Asia Opens

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Update 2010ET: Having briefly stabilized after this morning's weakness, cryptos are tumbling once again as Asian markets open.

Bitcoin has broken below $10,000 again...

*  *  *

While all eyes are on Bitcoin as it slides back towards $10,000, the real mover in the last 12 hours has been Ethereum after...



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Biotech

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing - but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

Reminder: We're is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing – but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

A telomere age test kit from Telomere Diagnostics Inc. and saliva. collection kit from 23andMe. Anna Hoychuk/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Patricia Opresko, University of Pittsburgh and Elise Fouquerel, ...



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ValueWalk

Professor Shubha Ghosh On The Current State Of Gene Editing

 

Professor Shubha Ghosh On The Current State Of Gene Editing

Courtesy of Jacob Wolinsky, ValueWalk

ValueWalk’s Q&A session with Professor Shubha Ghosh, a professor of law and the director of the Syracuse Intellectual Property Law Institute. In this interview, Professor Ghosh discusses his background, the Human Genome Project, the current state of gene editing, 3D printing for organ operations, and gene editing regulation.

...

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Chart School

Gold Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Charts show us the golden brick road to high prices.

GLD Gann Angle has been working since 2016. Higher prices are expected. Who would say anything different, and why and how?

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.



The GLD very wide channel shows us the way.
- Conservative: Tag the 10 year rally starting in 2001 to 2019 and it forecasts $750 GLD (or $7500 USD Gold Futures) in 10 years.
- Aggressive: Tag the 5 year rally starting in 1976 to 2019  and it forecasts $750 GLD (or $7500 USD Gold Futures) in 5 years.

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if ima...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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