Archive for 2013

Comment by IncomeTrader

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  1. IncomeTrader

     July trade cycle alert


     -15  RUT JUL11 855C

    +15  RUT JUL11 865C

     -15  RUT JUL11 700P

    +15  RUT JUL11 690P

     

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One of these things is not like the other …

One of these things is not like the other …

Courtesy of SoberLook.com

This is the time when everyone is making financial and economic forecasts for the upcoming year and beyond. Here is a simple forecast from Sober Look that did not require much analysis. By the end of 2014, student loan balances held by the federal government will exceed $850 billion and by the end of 2015 the number will be above a trillion. And this is on top of some half a trillion of loans that are not directly held but guaranteed by the federal government.

Source: FRB

So what? We've gotten numerous e-mails asking this question. The problem of course is government-subsidized and rising consumer debt burden – all on the back of the taxpayer. When the government is involved on such a large scale, there are usually unintended consequences and market distortions (elevated tuition costs for example). But it's the borrowers who are stretched to the limit due to outsize student loans and limited employment opportunities that is the growing problem – both for the borrowers and the taxpayers.

Remember the old song from Sesame Street: "One of these things is not like the other…"? The chart below from Wells Fargo shows the one thing that is definitely not like the other.
 

Source: Well Fargo


Happy New Year!

 





Comment by jeanc

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  1. jeanc

    In and out of TER today using options. Nice 8% gain.
    Good call David.







Comment by nicha

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  1. nicha

    David- if TER comes back down tomorrow, is it still a good bet for a buy?







Happy New Year (and Some British Humor)

Courtesy of Mish.

Looking for a laugh? Play the video below “Putting Out the Dog

Link if video does not play: Mrs. Brown’s Boys

Happy new year to you and your loved ones!

Wishing 2014 to be your best year ever.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com



Continue Here





Comment by amatta

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  1. amatta

    Phil, 
    I am getting hammered on as I mentioned what I thought was a 60-40 or at worst 55-45 bullish portfolio… I still have several short plays that I feel loth to kill now that we are at these lofty levels. Do you think that we have hit the resistance levels here as per your post? and I should hold my stance… Here are the positions posted on Google spreadsheet, if you at all have a chance to glance over them and let me know why it is being killed (today down 2%) when market is pulling up? 
    Thanks a lot.







Comment by terryongarland

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  1. terryongarland

    One wonders how much the total revenues received  reflect the growth in the population.







2013 – Dense Fog Turns Into Toxic Smog

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform blog,

In mid-January of this year I wrote my annual prediction article for 2013 – Apparitions in the Fog. It is again time to assess my inability to predict the future any better than a dart throwing monkey. As usual, sticking to facts was a mistake in a world fueled by misinformation, propaganda, delusion and wishful thinking. I was far too pessimistic about the near term implications of debt, civic decay and global disorder. Those in power have successfully held off the unavoidable collapse which will be brought about by their ravenous unbridled greed, and blatant disregard for the rule of law, the U.S. Constitution and rights and liberties of the American people. The day to day minutia, pointless drivel of our techno-narcissistic selfie showbiz society, and artificially created issues (gay marriage, Zimmerman-Martin, Baby North West, Duck Dynasty) designed to distract the public from thinking, are worthless trivialities in the broad landscape of human history.

The course of human history is determined by recurring cyclical themes based upon human frailties that have been perpetual through centuries of antiquity. The immense day to day noise of an inter-connected techno-world awash in inconsequentialities and manipulated by men of evil intent is designed to divert the attention of the masses from the criminal activities of those in power. It has always been so. There have always been arrogant, ambitious, greedy, power hungry, deceitful men, willing to take advantage of a fearful, lazy, ignorant, selfish, easily manipulated populace. The rhythms of history are unaffected by predictions of “experts” who are paid to spin yarns in order to sustain the status quo. There is no avoiding the consequences of actions taken and not taken over the last eighty years. We are in the midst of a twenty year period of Crisis that was launched in September 2008 with the worldwide financial collapse, created by the Federal Reserve, their Wall Street owners, their bought off Washington politicians, and their media and academic propaganda machines.

I still stand by the final paragraph of my 2013 missive, and despite the fact the establishment has been able to fend off the final collapse of their man made credit boom for longer than I anticipated, they have only insured a far worse outcome when the…
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Comment by juliet

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  1. juliet

    Thank you Karmon, this is very helpful.

    j







Stephen Roach Warns China’s Policy Incoherence Has Become Evident

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Authored by Stephen Roach, originally posted at Project Syndicate,

China was hardly lacking in policy pronouncements in the final months of 2013. From the 60-point reform program issued by the Central Committee’s Third Plenum in early November to the six core tasks endorsed by the Central Economic Work Conference a month later, China’s leaders proposed a raft of new measures to address the daunting challenges that their country faces in the years ahead.

But, seen in their entirety, the risk of incoherence has become evident. The Third Plenum initiatives, for example, have a strategic focus: promoting the economy’s long-awaited pro-consumption structural rebalancing. While the Work Conference’s core tasks embody the spirit of these reforms, they also reflect a tactical focus: “keeping growth steady.” Given the likely tradeoffs between strategy and tactics – that is, between long-term reforms and short-term growth imperatives – can Chinese policymakers really accomplish all of their objectives?

Of course, such tradeoffs have long been evident in most economies – developed and developing alike. What has separated China from the pack has been its strong inclination to place greater emphasis on strategic objectives in charting its economic-development path.

Even so, new tensions between the Third Plenum’s policies and those of the latest Work Conference have raised the question of tradeoffs once again. The consumer- and services-led rebalancing initially proposed in the 12th Five-Year Plan and endorsed by the recently concluded Third Plenum implies slower GDP growth than the 10% average annual rate recorded from 1980 to 2010.

Yet slower growth need not be a bad thing. Employment in Chinese services is about 30% higher per unit of output than in the manufacturing and construction sectors, which means that an increasingly services-led China can accomplish its critical labor-absorption objectives – namely, rapid job creation and poverty reduction – with 7-8% annual growth.

For China, rebalancing and slower growth go hand in hand – and yield the additional benefits of less intensive resource demand, a more subdued rise in energy consumption, and related progress in addressing environmental pollution and income inequality. But the recent Work Conference failed to consider China’s growth slowdown in this strategic context, placing considerable weight instead on the macro-stabilization imperatives of “proactive fiscal and prudent monetary policies.”

Since the Work Conference was concluded, investors have been debating the 2014…
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Zero Hedge

'Hedge Fund Hotel' Arconic Crashes 25% As Sale Plan Abandoned

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Widely-held by hedge funds (e.g. Elliott Mgmnt with 52mm shares), aerospace company Arconic has decided to no longer pursue a potential sale of the company. The shares are down over 25% pre-market...

What changed in 4 days?

Jan.18: Arconic Hopes to Finalize Sale to Apollo This Weekend: NY Post

    ...


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Kimble Charting Solutions

S&P and Crude both testing key breakout levels!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The correlation between Crude Oil and the S&P 500 has been rather high over the last 100-days, as each looks to have peaked at the same time around the 1st of October at (1).

After peaking together in October, Crude fell over 40% and the S&P nearly declined 20%, with both bottoming on Christmas Eve at each (2).

Both have experienced counter-trend rallies since the lows, as Crude is up 23% and the S&P 13%.

These rallies have both testing dual resist...



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Insider Scoop

Cowen Suits Up With Nike, Looks To Outperform

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related NKE Consumer Discretionary Q4 Earnings: U.S. Consumer Appears Strong Amid Heightened Global Uncertainty Golf Equipmen...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Phil's Favorites

Martin Luther King Jr., union man

 

Martin Luther King Jr., union man

Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. on the picket line at the Scripto plant in Atlanta, Ga., December, 1964. AP

Courtesy of Peter Cole, Western Illinois University

If Martin Luther King Jr. still lived, he’d probably tell people to join unions.

King understood racial equality was inextricably linked to economics. He asked, “What good does it do to be able to eat at a lunch counter if you can’t buy a hamburger?”

Those disadvantages have persisted. Tod...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 20, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

After entering the week quite overbought, indexes took a small retreat Monday before hurling back upwards.  This is typical of the “V” shaped moves up after any significant selloff, we’ve seen most of the past decade and watching them unfurl is quite amazing actually.  Thought maybe this time would be “different” but not so much.  So two week’s ago we asked “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problem in 1 speech?” – and thus far the market has answered resoundingly yes.  The word of the year thus far in 2019 is “patience” as that simple insert into a speech change the whole complexion of everything.

China has also been busy stimulating; on Tuesday:

An announcement from the People’s Bank of China that ...



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ValueWalk

Everyone Else Is Selling Stocks, So Is It Time To Buy?

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

After a difficult few trading days in the beginning of the year, U.S. stocks are bouncing back with meaningful gains on Monday following Friday’s strong rally. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq 100 were all up by more than half a percent by midday. It looks like investors could be taking advantage of the end-of-the-year declines, but is this a wise time to be buying?

Trying to time the bottom of the market will almost always be a fool’s errand, but one firm suggests equities could have much farther to fall before they hit bottom in 2019.

...



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Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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