Courtesy of Mish.
Initial Reaction
The surge in employment fueled by part-time jobs and the Obamacare effect may finally be over. Although the establishment survey showed a gain of 88,000 jobs, the household survey, off which the unemployment rate is based, showed a loss of 206,000 jobs.
The unemployment rate edged lower by .1% because a whopping 496,000 people dropped out of the labor force.
Last month, voluntary part-time employment rose by a reported 446,000. It’s plain to see that last month’s numbers were a statistical aberration. This was a miserable jobs report from every angle.
March BLS Jobs Report at a Glance
- Payrolls +88,000 – Establishment Survey
- US Employment -206,000 – Household Survey
- US Unemployment -290,000 – Household Survey
- Involuntary Part-Time Work -230,000 – Household Survey;
- Voluntary Part-Time Work -163,000 – Household Survey
- Baseline Unemployment Rate -.01 – Household Survey
- U-6 unemployment -.05 to 13.8% – Household Survey
- The Civilian Labor Force -496,000 – Household Survey
- Not in Labor Force +663,000 – Household Survey
- Participation Rate -.02 to 63.3 – Household Survey
Recall that the unemployment rate varies in accordance with the Household Survey not the reported headline jobs number, and not in accordance with the weekly claims data.
Quick Notes About the Unemployment Rate
- In the last year, those “not” in the labor force rose by 2,069,000
- Over the course of the last year, the number of people employed rose by 1,266,000
- In the last year the number of unemployed fell from 12,686,000 to 11,742,000 (a drop of 944,000)
- Long-Term unemployment (27 weeks and over) was 4,611,000 – a decline of 186,000 from last month’s total of was 4,797,000
- Percentage of long-term unemployment is 39.6%. It has been hovering near 40% for at least a year. Once someone loses a job it is still very difficult to find another.
March 2013 Jobs Report
Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) March 2013 Employment Report.
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