Courtesy of Mish.
Now that we have an Understanding of German Political Parties let’s consider some scenarios from reader Bernd who lives in Germany about how the election on September 22 plays out.
In past elections, as many as 40% of the eligible population did not vote. This brings a very large pool of voters that may turn out for the anti-Euro AfD party.
Bernd comments “All indications show that AfD has a huge potential to convert nonvoters to voters. If election turnout is high, seats in Parliament may look drastically different than today.”
For the past two weeks I have been watching the iPhone app Wahl-O-Meter and AfD has risen from 5% of the vote to 6.6% now.
Not only has AfD been rising, but today is the first day I have seen AfD above Die Linke. In the same timeframe, support for FDP has been sinking.
FDP is right on the bubble, polling 5% down from 5.4% or so. It takes 5% of the vote to stay in parliament.
This is significant because FDP currently has the third largest representation in parliament and is the junior partner in Merkel’s existing CDU/CSU/FDP coalition. The very real danger to Merkel is FDP goes to zero percent representation.
In theory CDU, CSU, and SPD could easily form a coalition that totals over 50% of parliament. However, the SPD political party leadership has ruled out a coalition government that includes Merkel as chancellor.
AfD Support Rises to 19% in Handelsblatt Online Poll
Via Google translate, please note 19 percent would vote for the anti-euro party.
The new anti-euro party alternative for Germany (AFD) has a good chance to collect in autumn in the Bundestag. The result of a representative survey of online market research company market research on behalf of Handelsblatt Online. 19.2 percent of the 1,003 respondents affirmed therefore the question of whether they would give the party their vote in the general election (24.9 percent of men and 14.8 percent of women)….
