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August 16th, 2007 at 3:35 am
I see an early discussion of what to short and I would have to say that I still favor shorting the index that’s held up the best for the week as others fall and I think a similar logic should be applied to sectors. The leaders will fall if the sector continues down (assuming we are going below 13,000 of course).
As to what to buy, it’s probably the same guys we are going to short last, the one’s that resist the pull of the crowd the best and only give up right at the end, when we get a real flush. I am very psyched about next week – I doubt it will be over then but I do look forward to running through the markets as much as my wife enjoys a one-day sale at Bloomingdales.
Thanks to all for support and kind words, I do not begrudge anyone the right to complain but I will not apologize for taking a 2 week vacation since I am on-line for every other one I take during the year. I think the comments made this week by our contributing members was excellent – better than pretty much anything I’ve heard from “professionals” in any of the 20+ sites I subscribe to myself. This is a messed up market – I’ve been saying it’s messed up since we hit 13,500 without a much needed correction and I put my foot down at 14,000 and got the hell out of it. If I did not run this service I would have bought that place in Lerichi, learned Italian and hung out there until October as there is really no other reason for me to hurry home as I am pretty sure that my M&A consulting work will dry up as well this fall.
Patience is the key to winning the markets and if you are expecting me to come back and point a magic finger at things to buy and sell next week then you are likely to be disappointed. I am in cash because the market sucks and the value of my advice is when I decide not to be in cash anymore but that call will not be rushed by the impatience of others who are looking to make up losses they shouldn’t have taken had they gotten into cash at the top.
Of course there will be lots of TRADES to make over the next month or so but this is a VERY dangerous time to be INVESTING and if you do not know the difference then take the last few days of my vacation to read the last few months of posts and comments on this site, which I would put up against the best market books ever written for having the potential to teach you how to be a better trader as you follow the posts, the responses and the actual trades made by the strongest market group I have ever been a part of.
Aside from Z, Sage and Happy, there are another dozen people here who I would be happy to publish as they are excellent insightful writers with great perspectives on the markets. While I will take credit for working to create the environment that fostered the development of this group, I still feel lucky and privileged to be a part of it – so thanks to all for your support during my much needed vacation, I’ll be back to my normal hundred-hour workweek on Sunday!
– Phil