Courtesy of Mish.
Folly of Forecasting
Inquiring minds may be interested in this flashback from Barry Ritholtz originally written published June 2005 and republished March 27th, 2011 on The Folly of Forecasting.
It’s very easy for a confident-sounding analyst, fund manager or professor to say something on TV that can throw off the best laid plans of investors.
I wish an SEC-mandated disclosure accompanied all pundit forecasts: “The undersigned states that he has no idea what’s going to happen in the future, and hereby declares that this prediction is merely a wildly unsupported speculation.”
Don’t hold your breath waiting for that to happen.
Is Gold Overdue for a Bounce?
One Day ago Barry Ritholtz pondered the question Is Gold Overdue for a Bounce?
If you are a trader — and I no longer consider myself one — then you have to be wondering when Gold is going to bounce. It has plummeted on little inflation, a strong dollar and an improving economy. When the breathless narrative of hyper-inflation, collapsing fiat currency and end of the world failed to come about, Gold’s spectacular rise ended.
[Mish comment – depending on one’s timeframe, that last sentence may easily be construed to be a prediction, the rest of the sentence is hyperbole]
Now, it has free-fallen so far that a counter-trend rally is over due.
[Mish comment – Is that a prediction or a suggestion?]
The charts below show two different ranges where gold can find a footing and rally. That is likely to present your next and perhaps last best exit.
[Mish comment – Is that a warning and a prediction, or just a suggestion?]…
