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Thursday, December 1, 2022


Wednesday Wrap-Up – Short Week Ends With a Whimper

Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen.  

I do so love it when a plan comes together.  Sure I was a bit early with my Monday headline "What Happened to Our Rally?," as it lasted until lunch but hey, it's a short week and I needed to save Tuesday's headline for actual news.  

Also, it doesn't do much good if I am late with my calls, does it?  So, over the years, I have pushed my timing from "right on time" to  "a bit early," which gives everyone plenty of warning to get positioned for market nonsense.   

As JFawcett said in chat last night about my call that oil would hit $100 into the holiday weekend: "Funny how Phil can see higher prices.  He must have seen this movie before."  My response was:

I wish it were funny but it's just sad that I can cynically predict that the markets will be manipulated to rip off the American people (and the rest of the World, for that matter) and then that's exactly what happens.  It's not that it happens once but that it happens over and over again and NO ONE ever stops them.  Not even Spitzer or Giuliani had the balls to go after commodity traders – they are truly untouchable.

The main purpose of crude price manipulation is to shift profits from refineries, which are typically located in politically stable countries with low risk of nationalization but higher tax rates, to exploration in countries that are typically low tax and corrupt. 

That's right, it's all about the money and our news today (follow same link) contained several examples of our Corporate Kleptocracy in action.  It's ironic that, tomorrow, this country celebrates it's 237th anniversary of "Independence Day" and we have never been less free.   We are a nation of wage slaves who are held captive by Big Business and spied upon by our own Government, both of whom control the once-independent Judiciary Branch who, just last week, struck down section 4(b) of the Voting Rights Act, that prevented states – or even counties – from disenfranchising voters without Federal approval.  

Chief Justice John Roberts wrote for the majority: “The conditions that originally justified these measures no longer characterizes voting in the covered jurisdictions,” he declared, noting that “African-American voter turnout has come to exceed white voter turnout in five of the six states originally covered” by the provision.

This is not John Roberts, some judge from 1953, this is the CURRENT Chief Justice of the US Supreme Court counting blacks vs. whites in the same week Paula Dean got kicked off TV for using the "N-word"!  The rules are there to protect EVERYONE, not to allow a Conservative judge to allow racist lawmakers to level the playing feel when his team feels out-voted!  

Speaking of voting, it was value investor Benjiman Graham who said:

"The stock owner should not be too concerned with erratic fluctuations in stock prices, since in the short term, the stock market behaves like a voting machine, but in the long term it acts like a weighing machine."

This has been the theme of our Member Chat for the past two weeks as we have been trying to emphasize VALUE and PATIENCE during the current market turmoil.  Now that we are heading into earnings season, and we'll see some real data (as opposed to analyst speculations) it's another quote that worries me ahead of earnings – it's from "A Knight's Tale":  "You have been weighed. You have been measured. You have been found wanting."  

We'll measure and weigh our stocks starting next week and we'll see if the results measure up to the expectations that have most companies trading at or near their all-time highs but, as William Koldus pointed out this morning (thanks Deano):

This time, the undervalued names are much fewer in number, with a higher degree of undervaluation.  When the recent market capitalizations of four solar stocks, First Solar (FSLR), Solar City (SCTY), SunPower (SPWR), and SunEdison (SUNE), can eclipse the entire market capitalization of the U.S. coal sector, even when coal compromises over 40% (and growing) of the world's electricity generation, while solar contributes 1% (and growing) of the world's electricity generation, there is a historic, contrarian opportunity.

Let's hope that's not true of the entire, overbought market – hopefully a mild correction will be enough but, until then – Cashy and Cautious!

Have a great holiday, 

– Phil



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That was too much to let go out of USO for .20 on the $36 puts.

Roll to next week for less than 45c. Oil is not following the up move

DIA Aug 148 Put back to 2.4…Nice!

huge move higher in cds, especially europe/asia…oil breakout…bad US economic data….mideast unraveling….buy buy buy!!!

dozens of tanks arrive at cairo univ.

Thanks Phil

Selling those puts made my day, making double the loss from yesterday.


tks and have a good holiday………..

TSLA 115 Puts – taking the 23% and goin home.

I do however, have been obsessing with selling OTM calls on TSLA becasue of the long weekend ?
Phil ?

Thanks for the detailed explanations, Phil! Have a good 4th of July holiday!

TZA august spreads look very inexpensive right now

becasue of the long weekend I was thinking of selling June13 $125 callls – the decay would be significant // wanted your thoughts


Guts wins, nice sell off. I was all into USO today. Congrats but be carefull they still may turn it on in the last minute.

arghhh. poker man. i was afraid you were gonna say that.

have a great weekend – i'll keep my guns holstered.

Fishing and a few beers on tap for this afternoon. Speaking of beer initiating a new spread in TAP – Jan 40/50 BCS at 5.25, selling the 40 puts for net $2 on the $10 spread. Chipping in a couple Aug 47.5 callers to make it a new sapling,.

Phil & all – have a great holiday!

Shadow/ overall a small loss ;(

Let s see what Asia and Europe will do tomorrow without US cues,

I could see a drift or worst case scenario a sell off.

My bet is US markets open Friday with a gap down

Happy holiday!



Phil- any intentions against that religious wacko are good. Unfortunately the Middle East is rapidly deteriorating. You have roughly a 50/50 split between the radically religious and the people who , while still religious, want to live a somewhat normal lives where girls don't get acid thrown on their face for going to school, etc. they will never reconcile. Unfortunately, while a non-brotherhood PM will be better for Egypt's foreign relations, if that idiot is overthrown the brotherhood will most likely retaliate with suicide bombings across the country. There will be no simple or easy resolution to the protests sweeping Egypt, turkey, etc. 

Have a safe and enjoyable holiday everyone!  Heading down to Lake Occonee in South Georgia where Rothlesberger got himself into trouble. 

Peace and safety for a good 4th!

Happy 4th to all… Enjoy the fireworks!

Hi to all of you sending and wishing  you a happy 4th of July, stay safe.

From Germany,  Yodi



They seem to have started the fireworks early in Cairo!

That looks like a pretty good indicator:


Stock prices have had a tendency to rise during the first trading day of every month. The S&P 500 has been up 0.3% on average during the 52 such days since the start of the current bull market on March 9, 2009. It was up 0.5% yesterday. The S&P 500 has been up 65% of those days with an average gain of 1.1%. The average decline during down days was 1.3%. 

Before we are tempted to quit our daily jobs to play the odds of the one-day-a-month trade, we should try to explain the first-day-of-the-month pattern. The most obvious explanation is that the US manufacturing PMI is always released on that day. Bull markets tend to coincide with economic expansions, during which the M-PMI tends to remain above 50. In addition, surprises are more likely to be to the upside than to the downside when the economy is expanding than when it is contracting. 

Why does the market seem to give so much weight to the M-PMI? It tends to be a good leading indicator for the y/y growth in S&P 500 revenues. M-PMI readings above 50 tend to be associated with positive earnings growth. However, the recent batch of readings suggests a continuation of low-single-digit revenues growth, which was only 1.3% during Q1-2013. 


Sorry, the above report is from the 1st.

Savi – I sent you an email concerning the Vegas meetup.  Just let me know that you have seen it.



Oil draw – Seems to me more market manipulation.

more qe?

Savi – I sent you an email concerning the Vegas meetup.  Just let me know that you have s

Savi – I sent you an email concerning the Vegas meetup.  Just let me know that you have seen it.

Appears Dragi keeping rates unchanged for unforseen future don't see that they are printing new money

Dollar and indexes through the roof and Oil went from being down to back to unchanged on news.

Maybe a shorting oppuretunity for friday or monday


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